Week 11, In Which I Am Shadowed By Sickness
On Wednesday morning, I slept through my alarm… after seven hours of sleep.
I never sleep through my alarm, and I almost never get more than six hours of sleep. But then… apparently, I do sometimes sleep through alarms. I do sometimes get more than six hours of sleep.
I’ve been sick since Sunday. I never get sick.
But then…apparently, I do.
My NFL Edge was painful this week. The research was all there; the content was all there, but the writing was a mess. I went back and read it late last night and was halfway embarrassed. I don’t know – maybe it seemed worse than it was because of how sick I am, and how tired my mind is at the moment. And how much does it really matter, right? – one week of subpar writing isn’t that big of a deal as long as the valuable information is still in place. But it sure would have annoyed me to read it.
Yet here I am, writing another article. I would say I’m writing this because “You deserve great content” (or something similarly cliche), but what if I can’t provide great content today?
Well… what do I even mean by that? I guess what I really mean is I can’t provide great writing. What I can provide, however, is great substance.
I guess that’s really all that matters.
Down below, I am going to go through some of my favorite plays at each position – as I always do in this article. Up here in this section, however – instead of rambling in some well-written but mostly self-satisfying vein that ties into DFS in the end – I am going to talk about some deeper elements that relate to this week’s slate.
Right now, I feel like I’m a wide receiver and this sickness is an elite cornerback I can’t shake free from.
Okay, that’s not truly how I feel. But it’s close enough – and that gives us a flimsy tie-in to be able to talk about something that will be important this week: Shadow coverage.
Understanding who the elite NFL corners are and who the “elite by name only” NFL corners are makes a big difference in your ability to identify sharp plays at wide receiver. Furthermore, understanding which cornerbacks actually shadow and which cornerbacks do not makes a big difference. There are a lot of potential shadow situations this week, and there are some matchups we want to exploit. Basically, I am going to pick through a bunch of wide receivers up here, and then I’ll talk about quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends below.
Amari Cooper at Lions: If you’re not concerned about Darius Slay shadowing Amari Cooper, you should be. Now, granted, Cooper had a big game this year against Jason Verrett, and he had a big game against Darrelle Revis, so he can certainly break free from Slay. With that said, Darius Slay is ranked one slot behind Revis in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback grades. If you’re shying away from DeAndre Hopkins against Revis this week (and you should be), you should also be shying away from Amari against Slay – especially as Amari will still be decently highly-owned, as most people see “Lions pass D” and think “auto-play.” If Slay sticks to Amari all game (as seems to be the plan at present), the “auto-play” in the Raiders’ receiving corps is Michael Crabtree, not Amari Cooper.
Dez Bryant at Dolphins: There is a chance Brent Grimes will shadow Dez this week, as he does shadow every once in a while. I am not too concerned, as Grimes has been middling in coverage this season and is unlikely to stick to Dez all game. My bigger concern is that Dez rarely saw double-digit targets last season, and there is really no reason to expect him to see more than eight or nine targets this week. He’s still a great play, though he will always be expensive for the number of targets he actually sees. (Granted, the Cowboys could filter more targets than normal toward Dez this week. It’s just that our sample size from last season tells us this is unlikely to be the case.)
Alshon Jeffery v Broncos: The Bears are going to try to get Alshon matched up on Bradley Roby as much as possible, but considering that Alshon is really the only strong weapon the Bears have at wide receiver, I expect the Broncos to make sure Aqib Talib or Chris Harris is covering him every single snap. I think there is a strong likelihood Alshon underperforms salary expectations this week.
Julio Jones v Colts: Vontae Davis sometimes plays sides and sometimes shadows. Reports this week say he is going to shadow Julio Jones. How concerned does this make me? Not tremendously concerned, as Vontae has not quite played to the same elite level this year that he did last year, and Julio should still see 12 or more targets. Still, Vontae is strong enough that it’s unlikely we see a monstrous game from Julio – making him a guy you could feel perfectly fine not paying up for. If Vontae does shadow Julio, this could also lead to a few more targets for Devonta Freeman and for either Leonard Hankerson or (if Hankerson is out) Jacob Tamme.
DeAndre Hopkins v Jets: This is a strange week, in that most of the receiving options we gravitate toward are in very difficult matchups. This is also good for us, as a large chunk of our competition will underestimate the difficulty of these matchups, and will still roster these players. Darrelle Revis may not be “the best cornerback in the NFL” anymore, but he is still one of the best. I do not want to pay a premium price for a receiver being covered by “one of the best” corners in the NFL.
Randall Cobb at Vikings: Captain Munnerlyn gets less attention than he should – perhaps because he sticks to the slot – but Munnerlyn is in the top ten in PFF coverage grades, and he’ll see Cobb almost the entire game, as Cobb plays over 90% of his snaps in the slot. Davante Adams should also run most of his snaps at Terrance Newman, who is having a solid season, which will leave James Jones against Xavier Rhodes for much of the day. Rhodes is an elite talent who has played poorly this season; Jones is a non-elite talent who has played well this season. Rodgers has to throw somewhere, so all these guys should rack up some points, but this could be a tougher game across the board for Packers receivers than most are anticipating.
A.J. Green at Cardinals: Patrick Peterson will shadow A.J. Green, and Mohamed Sanu should be absolutely erased in the slot by Tyrann Mathieu. That leaves Marvin Jones on Jerraud Powers. Hue Jackson is generally an offensive coordinator we can trust to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses, and I could see eight to ten targets going Jones’ way this week.
Jeremy Maclin at Chargers: Jason Verrett has PFF’s seventh-best coverage grade and is likely to shadow Jeremy Maclin this week, as Maclin is the only real threat in the Chiefs’ receiving corps. Verrett won’t erase Maclin, but he will give him a very hard time, making Maclin a play that is unlikely to reach salary expectations.
Stevie Johnson v Chiefs: Stevie Johnson will see almost none of Sean Smith this week, as Smith sticks to the outside and Stevie sticks to the slot. Expect the Chargers’ perimeter receivers to be mostly erased, leaving Danny Woodhead, Antonio Gates, and Stevie Johnson as absolute target hogs.
Danny Amendola v Bills: Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson are going to be erased on the outside by Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, and the Bills will focus the rest of their attention on stopping Rob Gronkowski. This will leave Danny Amendola matched up on Nickell Robey in the slot, which is a tremendous matchup. Amendola should be highly-owned, but that does not make him any less of a solid play.
QUARTERBACKS
Matthew Stafford v Raiders: When Stafford has time and is in a good matchup, he can absolutely beast. The Raiders just lost Aldon Smith, which will lessen the strength of their pass rush, and their secondary is very exploitable. This is a phenomenal spot for Stafford and co. to put up a big game. I like Stafford a lot this week, and I like Calvin Johnson a lot this week as well.
Derek Carr v Lions: Ultimately, we are looking for a shootout in this one. We want Stafford to go off and force Carr to go off as well, and this is a great spot for that to happen – with a pair of subpar pass defenses, a pair of teams that like to pass the ball, and this game being played indoors. Carr’s price has still not risen to meet his production, and he’s a great play this weekend.
Cam Newton v Redskins: These days, Cam is pretty much a given for a solid game, and that holds true against the Redskins, who will be susceptible against him both on the ground and through the air. I generally prefer to pay down at QB when I can, but there are enough places this week to feel good about “paying down,” I don’t hate the idea of spending a little extra money to get Cam on your team.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Texans: This is a narrative play all the way, but realize that Fitzpatrick ripped the Titans last year (another former team of his) for six touchdowns. He’s cheap, he has Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker (each of whom makes for a strong play this week), and he is facing a fairly weak secondary with a “revenge game” narrative behind him. There is a lot to like here as a potential tournament play this week.
RUNNING BACKS
Charcandrick West at Chargers: Charcandrick West should be considered a top five running back play this week, regardless of price (possibly even top three). It’s an understatement to say he is not priced as such. This is the epitome of a “free square,” in my mind. I strongly encourage you to not overthink it, and to roster the talented guy who will see 20+ touches against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Devonta Freeman v Colts: If I’m paying up for a running back this week, this is the guy I want to use. I already talked about how he may see a few more targets in the pass game than normal (and he already sees a lot!), with Vontae Davis on Julio Jones. Also, however, the Colts are starting Matt Hasselbeck this week, which creates a high likelihood of the Falcons playing with a lead. That makes it a great spot to roster Devonta Freeman.
Danny Woodhead v Chiefs: The Chiefs are solid at covering running backs out of the backfield, but Danny Woodhead is a different breed of “pass catching backs.” With Keenan Allen out, his responsibilities will only continue to grow, and you can pretty much bank on him seeing a floor of around five catches for fifty yards. Especially on PPR sites, Woodhead is an extremely strong play this weekend.
DeMarco Murray v Buccaneers: The Bucs have a tremendous run defense, and Murray is unlikely to put together a 100-yard game in this one. He is, however, a solid bet to see close to 30 touches, as Ryan Mathews is likely to be out this week, and the Eagles are going to want to rely on Murray where they can with Mark Sanchez under center. This is a volume play more than anything, but there is a high likelihood of strong production matching up with this volume.
Darren McFadden at Dolphins: McFadden finally gets to be the lead back in a game against a non-elite run defense. The Dolphins’ run D has been playing better lately, and they definitely have the pieces to be solid against the run, but McFadden still has that strong offensive line in front of him, and he still has 25-touch upside, with pass-game involvement. McFadden’s price has not risen to match his value, which means he remains a very strong play.
TIGHT ENDS
As I’ve been typing this article, I’ve been engaged in text conversations with several friends and DFS players about how little there is to like at tight end this weekend. But let’s take a stab at it…
Rob Gronkowski v Bills: So… the Bills have a plan to stop Gronk (so says Stephon Gilmore). Great! So does everyone else. I don’t love paying all the way up for Gronk in what is truly a tough matchup, but Gronk will need to be an even bigger part of the offense with Julian Edelman out, and he’s one of the most talented players in the NFL. It’s tough to go wrong rostering Gronk.
Greg Olsen v Redskins: The Redskins are not awful against tight ends, and the Panthers may not have to pass a ton in this one, as they shouldn’t have a hard time shutting down Kirk Cousins and the Redskins. With that said: Olsen is about the second-safest tight end (behind only Gronk), and while we don’t necessarily love paying all the way up for him, you could do a whole lot worse than having Olsen on your team.
Travis Kelce at Chargers: This is not one of those optimistic, “Eventually Andy Reid will realize what he has in Kelce” picks. Instead, this is just simply an admission that six or seven targets to Kelce against a team that is awful at covering tight ends might be about the best we can find this week. I would probably rather look elsewhere in cash games, but you could do a whole lot worse than Kelce in tourneys.
Eric Ebron v Raiders: The Raiders are not nearly as bad against the tight end as they were earlier in the year, but they are still not great. More importantly, Ebron is cheap and is a solid cog in this offense – regularly seeing five or more targets. On most weekends, you could do a whole lot better than this play. On this weekend, you could do a whole lot worse.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go make some tea. And get a bit more sleep. And hopefully shake this shadow coverage I am dealing with.
Go forth and profit – and I’ll meet up with you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!