Week 7, In Which We Trust Numbers
I said it.
That’s the problem.
I was the one who said it. Not some “expert.” Not some “trusted source.” Nope – just me.
What am I talking about?
I am talking about absolutely anything I write.
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It’s an interesting conundrum.
To (most) readers, I am a trusted voice; I am an expert.
I am a guy who has made a lot of money in daily fantasy sports, and who puts in a massive amount of time researching and thinking through and getting to know each team and each slate. I am a source worth paying attention to.
But to me, I’m just me.
Think about it. If you had, say, 50 hours to invest each week into breaking down a slate and working through exactly who you thought the best plays were…and if you did not read a single other writer or pay a shred of attention to anyone else’s research, how much would you trust the plays you had uncovered? – the plays you knew nearly no one else would consider to be truly strong plays? How much of your hard-earned money would you be willing to put behind those plays you had to dig deep to reach?
This is a football article, I know. But I imagine many of you have paid at least some cursory attention to the MLB playoffs. Most of you have probably at least paid enough attention to know how downright ludicrous Andrew Miller has been this October. Before Miller’s appearance in the clinching Game 5 of the ALCS, he had struck out 20 batters across only nine innings. (He notched only a single strikeout in that final appearance – but who cares. He pitched two and two-thirds innings of scoreless ball in that game on his way to the ALCS MVP.) In all, Miller currently sits at 11.2 innings in these playoffs…with 21 strikeouts, a mere five hits and two walks allowed, and of course, no runs.
That’s your background, in case you have not been paying attention.
And here’s where I’m going with that:
In a recent article on FanGraphs, Miller explained why he did not rely on his devastating slider more heavily during the years when he was in danger of becoming a massive bust:
The reason I didn’t throw more – and this has been correlated to my success the last couple of years – is that it’s been so engrained in us to get ahead with your fastball. And when you’re behind in the count, you get back into it with your fastball.
I always had this fear that, when I went back to the dugout after walking a third batter in an inning, having thrown a slider behind in the count, I would have to explain myself. Getting over that – getting beyond that – was big for me.
When I read that statement, it hit me hard. Here’s a guy with one of the best sliders we have ever seen…but because he knew his manager would question him after the fact if he took an unconventional approach and failed, he instead chose to, essentially, allow a slight bump to his likelihood of failure, because he knew conventional thinking would mean his decision would not be second-guessed.
So that’s my question this week. How often do we leave our “best weapon” on the table, simply because it’s unconventional?
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$125,000
That number has special significance for me this year. That’s the amount of money I left on the table myself during the 2016 MLB season.
Last week, we talked about the importance of trusting your research. Well – there you go. That’s the amount of money I missed out on this year from last-minute changes in MLB – moving off the often-unconventional plays I had arrived at through my research.
$125,000
That’s not an estimated number. I tracked things all season; $7k here; $4k there; $20k there. Time and time again, I failed to trust my research, and those were the results. Frankly, it’s a borderline miracle that I still had a solidly profitable season while leaving that much money on the table.
And look, I know. I understand. Some of you probably don’t like that I’m the DFS “expert” who talks about my shortcomings. I’m sure this rubs some of you the wrong way – I’m sure some of you would prefer that I talk about my big DFS days instead of talking about the times when I’ve made mistakes. But we can learn a lot from our mistakes. And we can learn a lot from the mistakes others have made as well.
Learning from others’ mistakes is better, honestly. It costs a lot less money.
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The funniest thing about all this is that the things I often end up having the hardest time trusting are all based on numbers. I will uncover stuff that no one else has uncovered…but simply because no one else is on those plays, I have a hard time pulling the trigger. Which is silly! Finding “the great plays no one else is noticing” is what being contrarian is all about. You don’t want contrarian plays that are low-owned because they’re stupid; you want contrarian plays that are low-owned because no one else has peeled back as many layers as you have, or because no one else is shifting their thinking to see things in the same way as you.
And sure, we won’t be right every time. That’s just a fact. But if we trust the numbers every single time – if we always put our money on the right side of what those numbers are saying – we will come out profitable over time.
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This week, we are going to look at some numbers. We are going to uncover some of the best plays on the weekend.
Then, the next step: we will trust these numbers. And we’ll see where this leads.
Quarterbacks – By The Numbers
Tom Brady at Steelers – $7,900 DK / $9,100 FD
Brady is going to be popular this week, but so are Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Why am I listing Brady instead of those two? Simple:
Numbers.
Against a New Orleans Saints team that the Falcons A) wanted to keep off the field, and B) could run against with ease, Matt Ryan threw only 30 times. Against a Broncos team that is tremendous through the air (fourth in both DVOA and yards allowed per pass attempt) but is beatable on the ground (16th in both DVOA and yards allowed per carry), Ryan threw only 28 times.
This week, I do expect both Ryan and Rivers to post a solid game. But the numbers in that game are worth separating from the narrative. The Chargers are an offense the Falcons will want to keep off the field if they can. The Chargers also just so happen to rank ninth in DVOA against the pass…while ranking 21st in DVOA against the run. We could see only 30 or so attempts from Ryan again in this one, as the Falcons aim to simultaneously attack the Chargers’ weakness and keep Rivers off the field. While – again – I expect a solid game from each guy, there is at least a case to be made for less production than most are expecting.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, has averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game since his return – and neither was a game in which he was especially required to pass a ton. “Angry Brady” and company want to run up the score right now, and there is once again very little risk of Brady falling short of 35 pass attempts. Against a poor Steelers pass D, it’s a great spot for Brady to smash.
Blake Bortles v Raiders – $6,200 DK / $7,400 FD
The Raiders’ defense has been awful this year. They currently rank in the bottom five of the NFL against both the run and the pass (in DVOA and yards allowed per carry/attempt alike). Most weeks, the concern is not “Whether or not teams can move the ball on the Raiders”; instead, it is “How will teams attack the Raiders?”
With the Jaguars, we have our answer before the game even begins.
The Jaguars rank third in the NFL in passing play percentage (after ranking second last year) – and even if you want to say, “That’s not necessarily an organizational philosophy, it’s just a result of game flow,” fine. The Raiders have the number three offensive DVOA ranking in the NFL, so…there’s your likelihood that this turns into a shootout as well.
While Bortles is never exactly a quarterback we are excited to trust, the Raiders are allowing an average of 313 passing yards per game. Which is just insane. Bortles has the weapons around him to help him post one of the top quarterback outings on the weekend – in a spot where most people will be overlooking the numbers and looking the other way.
Andy Dalton v Browns – $6,000 DK / $8,100 FD
I don’t make a habit of writing up Andy Dalton, but let’s look at some numbers for quarterbacks against the Browns:
The Browns rank 30th in pass defense DVOA.
The Browns rank 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Browns are also middle-of-the-pack against the run, which increases the likelihood of teams attacking through the air. (The Bengals, meanwhile, are in the bottom-third of the league at running the ball, but are in the top-third of the league in passing.)
The Browns have allowed five of six quarterbacks against them this year to throw for at least 275 yards. The only guy who failed to reach that mark was Kirk Cousins, who tossed three touchdowns.
The Browns have allowed three touchdown passes in four consecutive games.
The Bengals are also a team that has made the playoffs five straight years…and currently sits at 2-4. They need this win, and I expect them to be willing to stay aggressive deep into the game in order to ensure no lapses. It’s a great spot for Dalton – as funny as it feels to say that.
Running Backs – By The Numbers
DeMarco Murray v Colts – $7,200 DK / $8,700 FD
Sneaky plays are fun.
DeMarco Murray will not be sneaky.
But let’s look at some numbers:
On the season, DeMarco Murray has touch totals of 18, 19, 21, 27, 32, and 21. He also has eight total looks inside the opponent’s ten yard line this season (three carries, and a ridiculous five targets). His team has the fifth-lowest passing play percentage in the NFL (which means only four teams have chosen to run on a higher percentage of plays), and his opponent this week ranks dead last in DVOA against the run and 28th in yards allowed per carry. You don’t have to pay up at running back this week in order to get big production. But if paying up, this is a pretty sweet spot to go.
Matt Jones at Lions – $4,200 DK / $6,700 FD
Remember that whole thing about uncovering plays that make sense by the numbers…but that no one else is on?
Right now, our ownership projections in RotoGrinders Premium (which are silly-accurate) have Jones projected at under 1% in Week 7 tournaments.
Guess what?
Over the last four weeks, Jones has seen carry totals of 17, 22, 14, and 16. The Redskins’ offensive line ranks sixth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, while the Lions’ defensive line ranks 31st in the same statistic. The Lions’ run defense as a whole ranks 26th in DVOA and 27th in yards allowed per carry, while the Redskins’ run offense ranks fourth in DVOA and fourth in yards per carry. Those are some pretty nice numbers.
Because Jones is not a sexy name, and because he only receives a couple targets per game, he goes hugely overlooked from week to week. But when he’s in a good matchup, he can shine. And this is certainly a good matchup.
Cheap Running Backs
By the numbers, nothing in daily fantasy football is as important as volume. Volume is king. Volume beats all. When you side with volume over time, you will come out profitable.
Last year, I faded Odell Beckham and A.J. Green far more often than most, because: volume. Sure, those guys still popped off for huge games from time to time, but Beckham had more games in 2015 with single-digit targets than he had with double-digit looks; A.J. Green had three times as many games last year with single-digit targets as with double-digit looks. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones combined for fewer double-digit target games than either Beckham or Green had. If I was paying up last year, I was almost certainly looking to that volume.
This year, I will fade Julio Jones more than most. Sure, I may miss out on a few huge games. But I’ll also fade more duds than people would really like to pay up for, as he has so far been used in a manner very similar to the way A.J. Green was used last year (Julio has only one game this year with double-digit looks, compared to five games already with single-digit looks).
“Um. JM. Aren’t we talking about running backs?”
Absolutely! But the key here is volume. And talking about wide receivers is the perfect way to lead into this discussion.
You see, it is rare that a cheap wide receiver can be relied on for eight or more targets. It is rare that a backup stepping into extra snaps can be expected to receive double-digit looks. As such, it is rare to find cheap wide receivers who truly have a 50/50 shot at outscoring the highest-priced guys at the position.
The running back position is different. In the same way most NFL teams feel running backs are somewhat interchangeable, we should view fantasy backs as replaceable parts. And yes, a cheap running back stepping into the starting role is not going to have the talent of LeSean McCoy or David Johnson. But 20+ touches from a running back near minimum price is far more valuable than 20+ touches from a running back at the high end of the price range. (Same goes for those rare instances – like Cameron Meredith last week, or Ty Montgomery this week – in which a wide receiver with a double-digit target projection can be had at a low price.)
I do not expect Mike James or Shaun Draughn to receive 20+ touches for the 49ers. But I do expect 20+ touches for Jacquizz Rodgers, and if LeSean McCoy misses this week, I expect 20+ touches for Mike Gillislee. Take that for what it’s worth…and it’s probably worth a lot.
Wide Receivers – By The Numbers
Mike Evans at 49ers – $7,800 DK / $8,000 FD
First off, let’s dispel of the narrative a bit. Yes, Vincent Jackson is out. No, this does not project to open a ton of extra work for Mike Evans and Adam Humphries. Over his last three games, the ghost of V-Jax has seen target totals of five, five, and six, and with Louis Murphy expected to step into V-Jax’ role (with knowledge of the offense), we should expect at least three or four of those targets to remain where they have been.
With that said, however, Mike Evans has already been a target monster. He has seen 12, 11, 14, and 18 targets over the Bucs’ last four games, with seven of those looks coming in the red zone.
This matchup is tougher than most people want to pretend (the 49ers rank 16th in DVOA against the pass and 10th in yards allowed per pass attempt), but given that we can already bank on double-digit looks for Evans, and this game has the added benefit of being played against the fast-paced 49ers’ offense, there is plenty to like here. Evans has as much upside as any wide receiver on the slate – and given the volume, he should be able to carry a really nice floor this weekend as well.
Michael Thomas at Chiefs – $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD
It’s easy to get caught up in this narrative. Drew Brees is not as great of a fantasy asset on the road, true. But the real reason this matters for us so much in DFS is because his price is set for his overall production. While he’s still typically a strong quarterback on the road, he’s rarely a top two or three guy – which makes it difficult to justify his “top two or three” price tag.
Brees still, however, throws the ball a ton of the road. He still averages close to (or even over) 300 yards per game on the road (across each of his last four seasons). Which all adds up to: Yes, we generally don’t like to pay up for Brees when he is on the road. But this does not make his passing game entirely unusable.
We also know that Brandin Cooks is better on the fast turf of the Superdome. In his career, Cooks is averaging 83 yards per game at home, with 11 total touchdowns in 16 games. On the road, this average drops to 52 yards per game, with four total touchdowns in 15 games. This opens extra opportunities for Thomas, who is quickly becoming an integral part of this offense, with nine or more targets in two of his last three games.
I don’t usually go out of my way to target the New Orleans passing game on the road – but because most would say the same thing, it’s always worth checking to see if we can find a piece we can like. And Michael Thomas is definitely a piece we can like.
Quinton Patton v Buccaneers – $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD
Sure, this might seem like an off-the-board pick – but how off-the-board is it, really?
The Buccaneers’ run defense ranks 14th in DVOA and seventh in yards allowed per carry. They are also returning Gerald McCoy to the lineup this week, which will help their efforts against the run quite a bit.
On the other hand, the Bucs rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, while the shift to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback opens up this offense quite a bit – with targets finally being filtered toward the outside, rather than being stuck to the middle of the field. Last weekend, both Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton were direct beneficiaries of the swap to Kaep, with each guy receiving seven targets (and with Patton also receiving a carry that was called back by penalty).
Given that this is a run-tough matchup (and a pass-easy matchup) for the 49ers, and that workhorse back Carlos Hyde is out of action this week, I expect Kaepernick to be more in the range of 35 passes than the 29 he threw last week. The improvement in matchup, as well as Kaep being a bit less rusty, should also help raise his completion percentage from the pathetic 44.8% mark he hit last week.
Kaepernick did not look good in Week 6. But he looked good enough to make his receivers viable in this matchup – and with Patton (and Smith, for that matter) a solid bet for eight or more targets, at a cheap price and low ownership, there is plenty of reason to feel good about looking toward this spot in tournaments this week.
Tight Ends – By The Numbers
Rob Gronkowski – $7,200 DK / $8,500 FD
Martellus Bennett – $4,500 DK / $5,800 FD
These guys can be written up together, because – frankly – each of them is underpriced.
In the two weeks since Brady returned, Rob Gronkowski has 16 targets, while Martellus Bennett has 13. And while I won’t argue against the statement that “no tight end in the NFL is as talented as Gronk,” I would comfortably slot Martellus into the discussion of “top five tight ends” in terms of pass-game talent, which makes him a strong play this week as well.
Martellus was less involved in the Patriots’ offense as a whole last week (with a season-low 36 snaps), but he was a lot more involved in the second half, which was when the Patriots finally broke through for some offensive success. This week, I will not at all be surprised if Martellus is more involved early – with the Patriots focusing on two-tight-end formations.
As for Gronk: I hardly ever paid up for Gronk last year. It was not even so much that I felt he was not worth the salary…as it was that tight end position as a whole tends to be underpriced, which generally makes Gronk overvalued compared to alternative options. This is the rare week, however, in which I actually like Gronk as a top point-per-dollar play. There are several reasons to hold onto question marks for other, prominent tight end options, and I have no such questions for Gronk.
Feel free to roster either of these guys this weekend – and to enjoy the fun they bring your way.
Gary Barnidge – $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD
Outside of the two games in which they sold out to stop the run (against the Broncos and the Cowboys), the Bengals have allowed only two perimeter receivers to top 40 yards. Kenny Stills did it…on the back of a single, 74-yard catch. And Sammie Coates did it…on a pair of catches that both went for over 40 yards. In other words: even if Terrelle Pryor plays this week, you are banking on a breakdown in coverage for an outside receiver on the Browns to post a solid day.
The middle of the field is a different story, however, as the Bengals (borrowing these statistics from this week’s NFL Edge) have allowed the following, notable stat lines to slot receivers, tight ends, and running backs:
5-59-0 – Matt Forte
7-54-1 – Quincy Enunwa
7-61-0 – Jarvis Landry
4-53-1 – Cole Beasley
7-162-1 – Rob Gronkowski
8-47-2 – James White
Gary Barnidge receives very little usage in the red zone, and he does not offer much after the catch, which gives him a lower ceiling than the two guys listed above. But even if Pryor plays, targets should be filtered toward the middle of the field for the Browns…and if Pryor is out this week, Barnidge should see even more targets than normal. He’s a strong point-per-dollar play.
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Read the research this week of the writers you trust.
Listen to the words this week of the “experts” you trust.
But also, do your own research. See what numbers you uncover. Then trust those numbers.
Do that, and you’ll be in great shape…
Do that, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.