DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth has his weather update out and there is no RED to be found

The Coors game has the most severe rating, with Kevin Roth giving the game a YELLOW rating. As if DFS players needed another reason to play players in Colorado today, Roth writes, “Winds roughly SW at 15-20mph, with gusts around 30, that’s blowing out to right.” Tyler Chatwood and Kenta Maeda may want to call in sick today. Check out the rest of Kevin’s article here: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/saturday-weather-update-windy-at-coors-1278675

Chris Heisey is the newest National to try out the leadoff spot

The Nationals have been trying out different players at the leadoff position and today it is Chris Heisey. Heisey will have Rendon, Harper, and Zimmerman batting behind him, so if he can get on base, he has a decent chance of scoring some runs. He has a 0.375 OBP this year, so he qualifies as a mid-range value play today facing off against Phil Hughes and his 0.309 wOBA versus right-handed batters.

The Adam Wainwright vs. San Diego dilemma

Wainwright is pitching about as bad as anyone could have expected to start the year, but he’ll now get his easiest test of 2016, taking on the Padres in Petco Park. Waino has a dreadful 6.6 SwStr% to start the season and his velocity is down 2.3 MPH dating back to 2014, neither of which bode well for his outlook tonight even against one of the weakest offenses in the league vs. RHP. He’s been absolutely pummeled by Atlanta and Cincinnati in his two starts so far this year, making it very tough to play him in cash games even as his price continues to fall. Vegas doesn’t expect him to struggle too much based on the fact that St. Louis is a small favorite (-133) in a game with a total of 7, so there is some hope that he rights the ship. Walks have been a major issue in the early going (9 BBs in just over 16 IP) – if he can keep those in check and pick up an extra handful of strikeouts against a K-prone lineup (8th highest K-rate vs. RHP), this could be the first positive sign for Waino in 2016.

Cervelli bats 3rd as Pirates shake up lineup against Corbin

Patrick Corbin may be the under-rated pitcher in the Arizona rotation, sandwiching two 10+ SwStr% seasons around Tommy John surgery. He’s a bit below that (8.2%) in just a few starts this season, but has been pitching well, aside from the three HRs in his first and only home start, as will occasionally happen in that park. Although not the ideal pitcher to target, Francisco Cervelli becomes really interesting if he’s going to be batting 3rd against LHP now, as he carries a 149 wRC+ against them since last season. Andrew McCutchen (155 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) can be used against all but the most dominant lefties. Jordy Mercer (111 wRC+ vs LHP) is additionally interesting as a cheap shortstop option in the leadoff spot.

Realmuto bats 2nd against Samardzija

Jeff Samardzija continues to command a high price tag despite being a below average pitcher (ERA estimators well above four) for over a year now. Facing a mediocre offense in a great park might bring him in line with his price tag, but quite possibly nothing more. You might think Don Mattingly would put his best hitter vs RHP since last season (Derek Dietrich – 143 wRC+ vs RHP since last year) in the two hole if he’s shaking up his lineup, but nope, it’s J.T. Realmuto (72 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) as Dietrich bats 7th. Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) can leave any yard and will likely be low owned tonight. Christian Yelich seems to be breaking out (129 wRC+ vs RHP, 165 wRC over last seven days) and is still below $4K on both major sites, but San Francisco is death on LH power.

Trout faces HR prone Iwakuma (13.5 career HR/FB)

Mike Trout owns Felix Hernandez so he might be the only one upset that he was scratched, but a HR prone pitcher replaced him in Hisashi Iwakuma (13.5 HR/FB career). Iwakuma is in a decent spot against a lineup with a 54 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but has shaken the confidence of supporters by continuing to allow HRs at a high rate with a dropping K% and rising BB% over the last year. We’re still not ready to pick on him too much, as there’s not even another strong bat vs RHP in this lineup, but the one man show, Mike Trout (165 wRC+, .283 ISO) is always a strong play vs homer prone pitching.

Kevin’s evening update features a long list of games tonight, so you’ll want to be sure to check it out in its entirety linked below, but the main area of color coded concern seems to be CHC@CIN, which should be played, but may be interrupted. Obviously, a late start is better than a delay for Lester enthusiasts. MIN@WAS is the other game that could see significant weather activity.

Hazelbaker, Moss sits in San Diego against Cashner

The Cardinals have been shuffling around their 1B/OF position daily with just four positions for six credible bats. Tonight, Brandon Moss and rookie Jeremy Hazelbaker are the odd men out as Stephen Piscotty gets a boost in the two hole. He has an above average 119 wRC+ vs RHP and can be had for below $4K on both sites. San Diego may have not played like it last year, but it’s still considered a difficult run environment and Andrew Cashner was the one pitcher to keep the ball in that yard last year (9.5 HR/FB at home since last year with a 25.0 K%). He hasn’t been able to keep up that K% on the road for some reason, but home field advantage in a big park is probably the one reason you’d consider him tonight against a fairly tough St Louis lineup. You probably don’t want to have too much exposure to either side in this mathcup beyond maybe Matt Carpenter (151 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since last year) though. There are many much better spots.

Chris Young missing more bats, allowing more runs

Chris Young is the poster boy for beating his peripherals every year by a half run or more. That usually comes with very little daily fantasy fan fare because he does it with pop ups rather than strikeouts. His K% (14.7) remains low, but he’s strangely had a 9.7 SwStr% in every start. Yet, now his BABIP is up 100 points over his career rate (.246 – .209 last year). While we’re still not interested in Young against Baltimore, the fact that he’s allowing harder contact (49.0 Hard%) might make us more confident rostering the power bats, even in Kansas City. RHBs have a .246 wOBA vs Young since last season, but LHBs sit at .341. Fire up Chris Davis (166 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP since last season). Manny Machado has been so strong against RHP (157 wRC+, .250 ISO) that he absolutely remains in play in the #2 spot.

Arizona RHBs squarely in play vs. Jon Niese and his 6.4 SwStr%

The Diamondbacks are finally back at home in Chase Field and will get to take on LH Jon Niese with a team total north of 4.5. While Niese does a good job of keeping lefties at bay, he does not excel against RH bats and at times can struggle with the long ball. That is a great recipe for a guy like Paul Goldschmidt, who absolutely mashes LHP at home. In 2015, Goldschmidt finished with a robust .536 wOBA, .315 ISO, 245 wRC+ and a 60% hard-contact rate at home vs. LHs, numbers that are hard to even believe. Among all hitters on tonight’s slate, Goldschmidt’s exit velocity of 106 MPH in 11 ABs vs. Niese is the 2nd highest average exit velocity (Yoenis Cespedes is averaging 107 MPH EV in 10 ABs against Bud Norris), per Baseball Savant. Jean Segura is another prime target atop the Arizona order, as he should cause problems for the Pirates on the bases and provides some decent power/speed upside. Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas and Welington Castillo are all fine targets – Castillo owned a .228 ISO against LHP last season including a very solid 39.3% hard-contact rate, so it’s hard to argue with rostering him in any format given the sub-$3K price tag on FanDuel.

Dodgers with the highest team total on tonight's slate

Predictably, the Dodgers have the highest team total of the night, as they’ll head to Coors Field to take on Jon Gray and the Rockies. The LH Dodgers bats are where we’ll want to look primarily, but the RH bats hold considerable value as well. Adrian Gonzalez is the best of the bunch – he’s started hot against RHP this season (wOBA just under .400) and fared very well last season, finishing with a healthy .360 wOBA, .230 ISO and 37.1 hard%. Corey Seager isn’t far behind Gonzo, as he managed to record a hard% over 50.0 against RHs last season (51.1%) to go along with solid power numbers (.259 ISO). In between Seager and Gonzo is Justin Turner, who exhibits some reverse splits (.390 wOBA/.210 ISO vs. RHs last season compared to a .327 wOBA/.165 ISO vs. LHs), making him a very strong target at 3B if you aren’t trying to shell out the cap for Nolan Arenado. Chase Utley is a very appealing option at the top of the order, while Yasiel Puig and Yasmani Grandal both possess plenty of upside in their own right. There isn’t a player in the Dodger lineup that you can rule out of consideration.

Super lefty smasher Raburn has a 174 wRC+ vs LHP since last season

Scott Kazmir would have probably been on our avoid list even outside of Coors tonight with his 7.6 SwStr% and ERA estimators above four this season. However, now we can attack him with all of those potent Colorado bats against LHP, which includes Super Lefty Smasher Ryan Raburn (174 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP since last year) , batting in the unfortunate 7th spot and…..well……nobody. No other Rocky has a wRC+ above 95 vs LHP since last season (30 PA min.). That doesn’t mean we’re not using them because it’s Coors Field, where below average hitters thrive. Nolan Arenado (.211 ISO) and Mark Reynolds (.203 ISO), who wasn’t even in Colorado last season, still posted strong ISOs vs LHP and Trevor Story has struggled since the first week, but should still show strong against LHP in the two spot. Lastly, any warm body is in play at the top of the lineup in Colorado (DJ LeMahieu 95 wRC+ vs LHP since last season). The Rockies, naturally, have the 2nd highest projected run total (5.5) at home tonight.

Sano pounds LHP (140 wRC+), but Gonzalez just 9 HRs allowed since 2015

Gio Gonzalez has started strong (13 IP – 1 ER – 3 BB – 12 K) with perhaps the most important number being three walks. At times, he struggles with control and leaves too many games early after running up 100 pitches through five innings. Last year, he tried to be a ground ball pitcher at the expense of a few strikeouts, but you could see him try to get more whiffs as the season went on and the Nationals couldn’t convert grounders into outs. This year, he has a 0.81 GB/FB through two starts with an 11.3 SwStr% against two terrible teams (PHI, ATL). The Twins have been hot (161 wRC+), but are really more average and Gio is expected to be a popular pitcher tonight and probably rightfully so even considering his risk. Miguel Sano pounds LHP to a 140 wRC+ tune so far with a .224 ISO and absurd 50.0 Hard%, knocking the ball 257 ft on average overall this year. However, Gio has allowed just nine total HRs since the start of last season. Brian Dozier has been just above average vs LHP (114 wRC+) since last season. No other Twins batters shows up high on the radar tonight as they project for one of the lower run totals (3.7).

Collin McHugh looks to keep rolling against a tough Boston lineup

McHugh has struck out 11 of 56 batters with just one walk since his disaster against the Yankees in his season debut. It’s more impressive when you know he stifled both KC and DET to rebound from that outing. Only eight of the 48 batted balls against him have been hit hard, which matches his LD% with just one HR. His ERA is still trying to work off that mess in NY where he lasted less than an inning – otherwise, he’s certainly looked better since and his SwStr (10.3%) matches last year exactly. Boston is not entirely a favorable matchup (they’ve been slumping) while McHugh has pitched well at home, suppressing hard contact (-1.2 Hard-Soft%) since last season. On the Boston side, David Ortiz and Travis Shaw are the two most appealing bats when accounting for salary; Ortiz (.413 wOBA, .320 ISO vs. RHs last season) is always an elite option against RHP in hitter-friendly spots, while Shaw’s price tag across the industry is still a tier too low given his spot in the Boston order.

Mazara sits as Texas uncharacteristically stacks LHBs vs Quintana

The Rangers don’t usually stack righties against LHPs and they still trot out three LHBs tonight, but rookie sensation Nomar Mazara takes a seat against an under-rated lefty tonight. Jose Quintana has put up solid numbers for several years now and has been even better so far this season (11.1 SwStr%/25.0 K%/2.55 ERA/2.96 SIERA), allowing two ERs or less in all three starts. The Rangers haven’t been poor vs LHP, but have a 26.0 K%/4.1 BB% in 146 PAs, which doesn’t bode well for future opportunties, which is perhaps why they’ve turned more right handed tonight. Quintana is strong vs LHBs (.276 wOBA), but mediocre vs RHBs (.322 wOBA) since last season. Adrian Beltre homered last night and can still punish LHP (149 wRC+ since 2015), but the Rangers don’t otherwise have any very good RH bats. As such, Quintana should draw good value out of his mid-range price tag tonight.