DFS Alerts
Another cold night in Boston for Pomeranz vs Texas (77 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB% vs LHP)
The Rangers are at Fenway on a cold and wet day with the wind blowing in from center (14 mph), though Kevin doesn’t see the game as a significant weather risk. They are one of three offenses with an implied run line less than four (3.63) against Drew Pomeranz, who has had his struggles this year with hard contact (36.1 Hard%, 9.3% Barrels/BBE) and the lowest GB rate (38.7%) of his career. His 17.2 K-BB% is identical to last season though. While not the top projected pitcher on the slate, he does line up as potentially one of the better bargains for less than $8K on either site. Pomeranz is going to have to extend his outings though. He’s thrown fewer than 80 pitches in two of his last three starts and hasn’t exceeded four innings in any of them. Texas has a 77 wRC+ and 16.7 K-BB% vs LHP. Considering the weather, quality of opponent, and performance against southpaws, there are no real standouts offensively for the Rangers. Mike Napoli (135 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has a 217 wRC+ (63.6 Hard%, 3 HRs) over the last week, but Pomeranz has actually been better vs RHBs (.291 wOBA) since last season (the curveball can be a reverse platoon pitch) and First Base is once again one of the strongest positions on the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli
Robbie Ray projects as our top points-per-dollar pitcher on DraftKings for Thursday's main slate
Ray has improved his SwStr% by 1.3% to 12.9% and in doing so pushed his K% up to 28.9% this season. He’ll go up against the Brewers tonight, who have the highest K% on the slate based on the handedness splits of each matchup (25.2%). If their projected lineup holds, Milwaukee will have six bats with K% of at least 20.0% vs. LHP this year, five with a strikeout rate of at least 24.4%, and two that top 32%. There’s obviously some massive upside here, but the concern is the amount of hard contact Ray allows – 46.2% overall, 45.3% to RHB, 50.0% to LHB. That could be troublesome here as lefty Eric Thames has a 50.0% Hard% this year along with a ridiculous .519 wOBA paired with a .486 ISO. The rest of the batters are expected to hit from the right side – all but two have hard contact rates of at least 34.6% and Ryan Braun sticks out with a 52.2% Hard% along with a .442 wOBA and .269 ISO. If they’re able to get a hold of the ball, it could be big trouble for Ray. However, that’s a tall order as the Arizona pitcher has an impressive Contact% of 68.4%. Vegas currently gives him the edge as the Diamondbacks are slight favorites (-106), but they provide the Brewers with a 4.2 projected run total. Overall, Ray looks like a strong target – he’s fourth in salary on DK and second in projected points – but using a Brewers stack as a hedge seems like a solid GPP play.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Ryan Braun
Justin Verlander's GB% down to 29.9% this season
It’s been on the decline since 2014 when he posted a 39.4% GB%, which is right in line with his career average. As a result, his fly ball rate has jumped to 49.7%, well above his 40.9% average. He’s also seen an increase in Hard% (36.3%, 9.4% above average) and a decline in Soft% (14.6%, 4.1% below average). Although his HR/9 is just 0.98 this season, his massive fly ball rate paired with that level of hard contact should cause that number to rise as the season progresses. He’ll face a Houston team today that has five projected starters with FB% between 39.8% and 44.6% – Carlos Correa (44.0% FB%, 15.0% HR/FB, 41.8% Hard%, .221 ISO, .374 wOBA vs. RHP this season) stands out as the top option. The other four fly ball hitters are Evan Gattis (44.6% FB%, 38.5% Hard%, 6.9% HR/FB, .114 ISO, .330 wOBA, Josh Reddick (42.5% FB%, 12.5% HR/FB, 27.4% Hard%, .206 ISO, .356 wOBA), Carlos Beltran (42.0% FB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 26.1% Hard%, .171 ISO, .294 wOBA), and Ylieski Gurriel (39.8% FB%, 10.3% HR/FB, 32.3% Hard%, .168 ISO, .347 wOBA). Jose Altuve and George Springer don’t hit as many fly balls, but they’ve posted wOBAs of .367 and .321 and wRC+ of 136 and 105, respectively. Verlander has the third-highest SIERA (4.61) on the main slate and the Astros currently have the second-highest projected run total (4.73) – Houston looks like a nice stack tonight. Be sure to check out the lineups page later to make sure these guys are all playing tonight.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, George Springer Eduardo Nunez (hamstring) scratched Thursday, Christian Arroyo now batting eighth
Nunez was scratched due to a hamstring issue. Arroyo was originally going to rest on Thursday, but he’ll be back in the lineup due to Nunez’s injury. He’s not a strong target; in May, Arroyo has posted a .236 wOBA, .084 ISO, 56.5% GB%, and 29.0% Hard%. San Francisco will move Justin Ruggiano to sixth from seventh and Mac Williamson to seventh from eighth.
As reported by: Andrew Baggerly Other tagged players: Christian Arroyo, Justin Ruggiano, Mac Williamson Tyler Anderson leads early slate with a 12.0% SwStr%
Anderson’s velocity is up this season so it’s not all that surprising to see his SwStr% increase by 1.3% from last year. His Contact% is down 3.3% to 75.4% and he’s limiting batters to 29.6% Hard% and 23.9% Soft%. While his ERA is 6.0, his SIERA is 3.87, which is good for second-best on the early slate. Although he hasn’t pitched more than 6.0 innings this season, he’s hit the mark twice in his last three starts and he’s picked up at least seven strikeouts in all three. Overall, his K% is up to 23.4% and he’s facing a Phillies team that strikes out the 11th-most against LHP (22.6%). Anderson will come with some upside this afternoon and he currently projects as our SP2 on FanDuel and SP3 on DraftKings on the early slate.
Reds-Indians game considered RED/ORANGE in our morning forecast
That means there’s a decent chance it ends up being postponed. Kevin Roth is expecting rain all day with the wet conditions extending into the night. This game starts at 6:05 pm EST, so it’s only available on all day slates. Outside of the already-postponed Royals-Yankees game, there aren’t many concerns on the early slate. On the main slate, the Padres-Mets game is considered YELLOW/ORANGE as some storms may come in later tonight; we’ll have a better picture this afternoon. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Royals-Yankees game postponed due to rain
Get these guys out of your lineups, this afternoon’s game between the Royals and Yankees has officially been postponed. There are still five games remaining on the early slate, which locks at 12:05 pm EST.
As reported by: New York Yankees Players should look to the infield for cheap bats tonight
Prices appear to be slowly increasing throughout the industry as we’re nearly one-third of the way through the season, but with Chris Sale on the mound tonight, players are certainly looking to save and there are still quite a few bats with positive outlooks that will may allow you to do just that. John Jaso is in the middle of the Pittsburgh order tonight for just $3K on DraftKings, where he’s OF eligible. He has a 114 wRC+ against RHP since last season and faces a struggling Julio Teheran (LHBs .344 wOBA since last season). Ryan Schimpf costs just $300 more and has a 244 wRC+ with a 62.5 Hard% over the last week. He, too, faces a struggling RHP (Robert Gsellman). Chris Young is likely to be the popular value play on FanDuel. He’s just $2.5K against Martin Perez. Players willing to punt First Base may want to opt for Jaso’s teammate Josh Bell (127 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP career) with a better lineup spot, hitting third tonight. Matt Adams (213 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% over the last week) is a $2.4K FD option on the other side of that matchup, against Trevor Williams. Javier Baez (115 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP since last season) leads off for the Cubs tonight against Matt Moore, who has allowed Barrels on 8.1% of PAs. Baez costs $2.9K on FanDuel. Andres Blanco has been about a league average bat (95 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP) when he gets opportunities since last season. He gets one tonight in the middle of the lineup and is eligible at several positions across the infield for less than $3K on either site, including the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Lucas Duda (103 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is another cheap First Base bat ($2.5K on FD) in the cleanup spot against Jarred Cosart.
Other tagged players: Chris Young, Ryan Schimpf, Javier Baez, Andres Blanco, Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Josh Bell Two games at YELLOW/ORANGE highlight Wednesday's latest MLB weather forecast
The primary game of concern on Wednesday’s main slate comes to us in Chicago for a matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs. This game is currently classified as YELLOW/ORANGE by Kevin Roth, meaning that a rain delay is possible and even likely to occur. This puts starting pitchers at risk for getting pulled early should there be an in-game delay, but hitters should remain in play unless we get a random postponement from the Cubs’ team officials once again. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Chris Sale is projected to be in around half of DraftKings lineups
Chris Sale is projected to be an overwhelmingly popular arm among DFS players tonight, projected to be in around 50% of DraftKings lineups. There’s not a lot of stability behind him, but one place players might look for variation is Charlie Morton. The Tigers produce a lineup absent key bats in J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos and strike out 22.9% of the time against RHP. Morton already has a career high 26.1 K% this season and has upped that to 31.3% over the last month. He’s projected to be in 10% or fewer of lineups on both sites tonight. Without any offense projected for much more than five runs tonight, offensive ownership should be fairly well spread out with no batter on either site predicted to hit the 20% mark. RH Houston, Yankee and Boston bats may be getting a bit more attention than most, but still spread out fairly well enough that players shouldn’t really worry about fading one particular hitter or stack. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates, updated throughout the evening, for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Charlie Morton Key Detroit lineup omissions move the needle in favor of Charlie Morton (31.3 K% last 30 days)
Charlie Morton may have already had some value for less than $9K against a Detroit lineup with a 24.9 K% on the road and 22.9 K% vs RHP. Morton has a career high 26.1 K% and has even increased that to 31.3% over the last month. The biggest drawback in his performance this year has been too much hard contact (37.9 Hard%, 19.4 HR/FB) with a reduced ground ball rate (48.6%). The Tigers hammer RHP when they have made contact (27.1 Hard-Soft%) and are predominantly right-handed, the side which has given the new Charlie Morton more problems (.355 wOBA since last season). There may be some merit to considering exposure on both sides of this matchup, however, key absences from the Detroit lineup (J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos) makes Morton appear a stronger candidate tonight. Alex Avila leads the majors with 66% of his 50 batted balls over a 95 mph aEV. He and Miguel Cabrera (146 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since last season) still warrant consideration, but tonight’s Detroit lineup moves the needle more in Morton’s favor in a park (Houston) that is more of a negative run environment than many players may realize.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera Lonnie Chisenhall scratched Wednesday; Daniel Robertson will start in his place and bat 9th
Chisenhall has been scratched with a possible head injury, and Daniel Robertson will now enter the lineup and bat 9th. Head injuries aren’t taken lightly these days so it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Chisenhall to miss another game or two at least.
As reported by: Ryan Lewis Other tagged players: Daniel Robertson
Ricky Nolasco (20.6 K%) in dangerous high strikeout spot (Rays 17.5 HR/FB, 26.6 K% vs RHP)
Ricky Nolasco has a 20.6 K%, which is his highest rate since 2010. Over the last month, he’s even up to 22.6% with an 11.1 SwStr%. Against a Tampa Bay lineup with a 25.4 K% at home and 26.6 K% vs RHP, players may consider the upside for less than $8K. While there may be some merit to that, those players may also want to hedge a bit in additional lineups considering his 8.3% Barrels/PA is tied for highest on the entire day, not just the night slate. The Rays swing and miss a lot, but punish the baseballs they do connect with as well. They have a 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP and 31.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison each have a wRC+ above 180 with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. While Nolasco has been more vulnerable to RHBs (.336 wOBA, 36.1 Hard% since last season), Evan Longoria (125 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2016, 45.5 Hard% last seven days) and Tim Beckham (99 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2016, 44.4 Hard% over the last week) deserve some infield consideration. Each costs below $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Tim Beckham Andrelton Simmons now batting fifth in Angels order, Ben Revere sixth
Andrelton Simmons and Ben Revere appear to have swapped places in the Los Angeles Angels lineup for tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Contradictive to the Angels original confirmed lineup, Simmons will now bat fifth, while Revere will hit out of the six-hole. Obviously, such a minor change does not affect the projected fantasy outlook for either the Angels offense or the opposing starting pitcher, Erasmo Ramirez.
As reported by: Angels PR Other tagged players: Ben Revere Chris Sale leads all pitchers in overall projected points and strikeouts by a wide margin
Chris Sale tops the Daily K Predictor for tonight’s slate by over two strikeouts (8.97) and is the top overall pitcher via RotoGrinders Player Projections by over 10 points on DraftKings and 15 points on FanDuel. Where should players look next for their upside? Charlie Morton is projected for the next best strikeout mark (6.73). He faces a hard hitting Detroit offense, but one with a 24.9 K% on the road and 22.9 K% vs RHP. Morton has a 31.3 K% over the last month, but perhaps his 11.5 SwStr% supports something a bit less. His own hard contact issues considered, players are saving three to five thousand dropping from Sale to Morton, who may be line with a more expensive Rich Hill and Luis Severino for next highest upside on the slate. The issue with Hill is that he’s only pitched three times with no more than 82 pitches, but he’s in a favorable spot against the Cardinals (73 wRC+ vs LHP) at home. Severino has the ninth best K-BB (21.2%) in the majors and is the second best overall projected arm on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections) against the Royals (81 wRC+ vs RHP), but he’s had a difficult time in two of his last four starts (three Ks or less) as batters are laying off more of his pitches out of the zone.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Charlie Morton, Luis Severino, Rich Hill