The Relief Brief: Tuesday, August 16th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-17 02:38:19

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Tuesday night features a full 15 games. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Eduardo Rodriguez has shown some flashes of goodness in 2016, but he continues to struggle in terms of working deep into games. His high pitch count on the season sits at 102 pitches. The Orioles should see plenty of the Red Sox bullpen tonight. Craig Kimbrel collected the save yesterday, but had to throw 28 pitches to do so. While the Red Sox ‘pen has been solid in 2016, they have struggled a whole over the last 30 days with the third worst SIERA in baseball over that stretch.

Yovani Gallardo has exceeded 100 pitches only three times in his 15 starts this season, but he has gone for at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Gallardo often struggles with his command (4.71 BB/9), and the Red Sox are a team that works starting pitchers. Expect to see a good amount of the Orioles bullpen here. Keep in mind that Darren O’Day (Orioles set-up man) is back on the DL, and that the rest of the bullpen aside from Zach Britton is very mediocre.

In his last start, Vincent Velasquez was obliterated by the Dodgers to the tune of nine earned runs on 11 hits through just shy of five innings. Prior to that start against the Dodgers, Velasquez had allowed more than four earned runs just once in his 19 other starts, but his command has been a definite issue of late. The Phillies ‘pen has been consistently average this season, though they do allow a HR/9 rate of 1.32 (fourth worst in baseball).

Michael Pineda has gone for six or more innings in eight of his last nine starts. Unfortunately for Pineda, he has also given up at four or more runs in four of those nine starts, so there is very little consistency in his effectiveness. Pineda has also allowed 14 dongs to righties this season, so this may be a tough spot against Toronto, despite the Jays’ underwhelming recent form. Dellin Betances nailed down the save last night, and didn’t work overly hard in doing so. The bullpen is fresh and still well above average – they should be ready to step in when Pineda gives way.

Here’s a stat that perfectly illustrates the type of pitcher that Justin Verlander is. In his 24 starts this season, he has exceeded 100 pitches in 21 of those outings. One of the sub-100 pitch outings came on opening day. The dude is a workhorse. The Tigers bullpen is among the bottom third in SIERA over the last 30 days, but they are still well rested overall (Alex Wilson is the exception). Regardless, expect another lengthy outing for Verlander in this one, with minimal work from the bullpen.

The Cardinals annihilated Jose Urena in his last outing. Urena allowed eight runs on eight hits through just over four innings in that game, and his high xFIP showed that much of that was deserved. Urena isn’t a pitcher who is going to go deep into ballgames as he is allowing a wOBA of over .345 to batters from both sides of the plate. Expect to see plenty of the Marlins ‘pen here. Over the last 30 days, this bullpen has been struggling to the tune of a SIERA approaching 4.00 (sixth worst in baseball). Also, keep in mind that A.J. Ramos is still on the shelf and won’t be closing out games for a while longer.

Edwin Jackson has surprised many people with his success as a starter in 2016. E-Jacks has five consecutive starts and has given up three or fewer runs in four of those five. A closer look at the stats show an xFIP of over five in three of those starts. The Padres have a bullpen SIERA of 4.09 over the last 30 days. The Rays struggle as a team against righties (team wOBA of .311). I don’t see any reason to go out of your way to try to fit Rays bats other than a one-off here and there.

Andrew Triggs now has two starts under his belt, and both have been underwhelming. The main issue here is that Triggs never pitched more than two innings in the minor leagues this season, and suddenly he is being asked to make spot starts. The bottom line is that Triggs isn’t going more than five outings at the most (seven combined innings through his two starts). The Oakland ‘pen is especially susceptible in their middle relief, as they have a slew of pitchers that have bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors. I like this spot for Rangers bats throughout the game.

Chad Bettis continues to induce a large amount of ground balls, but also continues to dish out the free passes. Bettis has worked through six innings in nine of his last 11 starts, but hasn’t gotten through the seventh since April 10th. As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies’ pen has struggled mightily over the last 30 days, and they used four arms in relief yesterday. Look to capitalize on a bad/fatigued bullpen here.

Jeff Samardzija bounced back in his last start by holding the Marlins scoreless in a short outing (5.2 innings), however, his xFIP still sat close to 5.00 in that start. The Pirates exploded for eight runs last night, but are still struggling at the plate on the season. The Giants bullpen (and specifically Santiago Casilla) continues to be disappointing. Given Samardzija’s current form and the state of the San Francisco ‘pen, this could be a sneaky spot to take a bat or two, but it’s not one of my favorite spots to target.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Oakland Athletics
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Boston Red Sox

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Cardinals placed Seth Maness on the 15-day DL with an elbow strain. Sam Tuivailala will take his roster spot.
The Astros activated Ken Giles off of the paternity leave list. Giles welcomed the birth of a child and will be welcomed back to his closing role by the Astros.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

The Cubs and Brewers will play a doubleheader today. The late game is active on the DFS slate, so pay attention to how the pitching fares in the first game of the double header as that will play a large role in the state of the bullpens for tonight’s game.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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