DFS Alerts
Adam Hadwin looks to build on a great course history
Typical horses for this week’s venue are golfers that excel at driving it a long way. Despite that type of skill set Adam Hadwin has a very good course history at Rivera. Making his fifth start at The Genesis Open, Hadwin is 4 for 4 in made cuts with three top 25 or better finishes. For what he lacks in length he makes up in other areas of his game, and coming into this week Hadwin has gained strokes tee to green in seven consecutive weeks leading to 4 top 25 or better finishes. Priced down in this very strong field, Hadwin makes sense as one of the stronger value plays in any format for the week.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown
Charley Hoffman is starting to trend in the right direction
There was a period of time between the start of the 2017 season through late 2018 where Charley Hoffman was one of the more consistent players on tour. With 26 top 25 or better finishes since the start of the 2017 season, Hoffman became a player we could target on most weeks. Once thought of as just a streaky player, Hoffman had quietly molded himself into more of a steady player that you could target week to week. Towards the end of last season and for the early part of this season, Hoffman has struggled to play well. Currently ranked outside the top 150 in The FedEx Cup race, Hoffman has only posted one top 25 this season. Hoffman was able to post his first to 25 of the year at The WMPO and then followed that up with a 41st place showing at Pebble Beach. In each of his last two starts, Hoffman has gained strokes tee to green vs the field and has the type of game that plays well at Rivera. Priced down due to his poor recent form, Hoffman makes for a great value play in GPP’s this week. Augusta National is a course used in comparison to Rivera, and Hoffman has flashed over the last two years at the Masters. Hoffman is a great ball striker who looks to be coming out of a small slump at just the right time.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Adam Scott looks to bounce back from a missed cut
It’s been almost 3 years since Adam Scott has won on the PGA Tour. This former number one ranked player in the world knows all too well the ups and downs associated with professional golf. With solid recent play including a second place finish at The Farmers Open, Scott appears close to returning to his winning ways. Fueled by a new putting stroke, Scott has seen his game flash to start the season. A missed two-foot putt kept him from playing on Sunday last week, but that should not discourage you from playing Scott his week. A missed cut at an event like Pebble Beach carries less weight when you factor in how difficult the week can be. Rivera is one of Scott’s favorite courses on tour, and with seven top 20 or better finishes, this former winner of The Genesis Open is a player worth targeting in all formats for the week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown The Cheap Chalk will Pay Off Eventually
The cheap chalk has failed week in and week out this season. My general rule of thumb is that if I’m going to eat the chalk, I’m going to do it in the upper tier of pricing. While Kokrak projects to be one of the highest owned golfers in the cheaper price range, he stands out as such a good play that I am going to break my rule. Eventually, the cheap chalk is going to pay off. Honestly, after getting burned by the cheap chalk over the last four events, people might be hesitant to play Kokrak. He has three straight top 25 finishes at this event and he has three straight top 20 finishes on tour. He grades out as the 18th best play in my model, yet he’s the 29th most expensive on DraftKings and the 34th most expensive on FanDuel.
One Good Putting Week Away from a Strong Finish
Bradley doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. He burned so many bridges a few years back that DFS players have a really hard time trusting him. However, since his missed cut here last year (which was right on the number), he has only missed one cut. His consistency has really flown under the radar. He’s a good total driver of the golf ball and is ranked sixth in the field in strokes gained approach. His proximity stats look good and he’s ranked in the top 45 in par four scoring (450-500 yards) and bogey avoidance. The only concern is his putter. He has lost 19 strokes putting in his last four events. While Keegan is a poor putter, he’s not that bad.
Dark Horse to Win at Riviera
The words just don’t feel right as I type them, but Hadwin is my favorite play of the week when you factor in salaries. He has made seven straight cuts on tour, posting three top ten finishes during that stretch. He’s driving the ball as well as he ever has, gaining nearly ten strokes off the tee in his last four tournaments alone. He has a great short game and is one of the best putters on poa in the field. The icing on the cake is his course history. He has played here four times, making the cut in all four and posting finishes of T6, T34, T16, and T22. He hit at least 70% of his greens in all four rounds last week, so if he can bring that same ball striking and putt a little better, he could easily find himself in contention on Sunday.
No Signs of Slowing Down
I keep waiting for Kuchar’s form to drop off and every week, he posts another strong finish. He is gaining strokes in all facets of his game, which is something that often gets overlooked in DFS. When one part of his game fails, the rest of it can make up for the weakness. That’s not the case with strong ball strikers that can’t chip or putt. Kuchar didn’t have a great track record at Pebble Beach, yet he played last week and posted another top 25 finish. He has two wins in the swing season and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He’s made each of his last three cuts at Riviera with no finishes outside of the top 30. Rather than waiting for him to cool down, I’m hopping aboard.
Second Week on U.S. Soil
Fleetwood played last week at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, recording a T45 while gaining four strokes in his approaches in the two rounds at Pebble. While it wasn’t an eye-opening performance, it was his first event on U.S. soil this season and he was likely just there to scout the course for the U.S. Open. Fleetwood is one of the best ball strikers in the world, which is a skill that tends to be rewarded at Riviera. He made his event debut last season, posting a T37. It’s a small sample, but he has putted well on poa in his career and he’s surprisingly gained strokes putting in eight of his last nine events on tour. Fleetwood is a “safe” play this week, but with how few 6-of-6 lineups we have seen lately, there is nothing wrong with that.
Much Better Course Fit than His Last Two Events
Finau has been a bit of a letdown over the last two events, missing the cut at the Waste Management Open (for the fourth year in a row) and posting a T38 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While his recent form is a small concern, those courses clearly don’t suit his eye. He has never played well in Phoenix and he doesn’t get to hit his driver often at Pebble. Based on his second place finish at Riviera last year, Finau clearly likes this course. He’s ranked in the top 20 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, proximity, par four scoring from 450-500 yards, and bogey avoidance. He’s going to be highly owned, but I’m always willing to eat chalk when it comes to expensive golfers.
Hideki-Bot is Back!
Matsuyama is my pick to win this week. He’s where I am starting most of my lineups (on DraftKings at least) and I am betting him outright. He is first in the field in strokes gained approach and first in my proximity blend (mostly from 150-200 yards). Here are his approach numbers from his last seven events: +7, +8, +1, +4, +12, +3, +5, +7. His irons are hot fire right now and while he’s not known as a great putter, poa is his preferred putting surface. Over the course of his career, he has actually gained strokes putting on courses with poa greens. He did have a missed cut here back in 2017, but played well in his previous three trips, posting finishes of T11, T4, and T23.
DraftKings Projections are live and Rafa Cabrera-Bello is trending as a top play
Playing for the second consecutive week on the PGA Tour, Rafael Cabrera-Bello is looking to start the 2019 season off on a good note. With a top 25 showing at last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-AM, Cabrera-Bello will turn his attention posting another solid finish at a course that suits his game. In terms of looking at strokes gained statistics, Cabrera-Bello excels in all of the major categories with the exception of strokes gained around the green. Despite his ability to get up and down efficiently, Cabrera-Bello was able to put his ball striking skills to good use by posting a T26 in inaugural Genesis Open last season. Priced down due to the overall talent in this field, Cabrera-Bello stands out as one of the better plays in terms of Pt/$/K in our projection model for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Sergio Garcia set to make his 2019 PGA debut
The 2019 season has not started ideally for Sergio Garcia. This former major champion had the unfortunate experience of being disqualified from a European Tour event a few weeks ago for damaging the course. Even though Garcia apologized you would have to think that he is feeling the negative energy associated with such an embarrassing ordeal. Making his 2019 PGA debut, Garcia enters the week as a player who many will simply overlook in such a strong field. Whether it’s his inconsistent play or a strong dislike associated with his recent behavior, Garcia is currently predicted to have a very low ownership number. Still, a very talented player, Garcia is a player worth considering as a GPP pivot with a ton of upside for the week. Garcia is still a great iron player and has three top ten finishes in his career at this event.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Trey Mullinax, Steve Stricker and Kenny Perry have all withdrawn from The Genesis Open
Just a few short hours after DFS prices for this week’s Genesis Open were set a few early week withdrawals were announced. Fresh off a top 25 finish at Pebble Beach, the red hot Trey Mullinax has decided to take a pass on playing at Rivera. Steve Stricker will opt to play The Champions Tour this week as he is in the field at The Chubb Classic. Kenny Perry rounds out the early week field movement as he also decided to skip this week’s event. Mullinax had played well enough of late to be considered as a tournament option this week, and as of now, there is no injury news associated with his absence.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Steve Stricker, Kenny Perry Ten minutes until roster lock make sure you have removed all players that are not in the field
It’s been quite a busy week in terms of players opting to pass on playing at Pebble Beach. With ten minutes left until roster lock please take the time to make sure the players above are not in any of your builds. Good Luck this week grinders, as always we will have ReultsDB up shortly after lock so you can see how your lineups stack up in terms of ownership vs the field.
Other tagged players: Jason Kokrak, Bill Haas, Joel Dahmen, Colt Knost, Kevin Na, Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk Weather update for The Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Kevin Roth’s weather report for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is up in the main forum and it looks like an overall ugly week for golf. Due to the size of the field and the three-course rotation, it’s really hard to gain an edge in terms of stacking a tee time wave. We can, however, look at the overall weather pattern and try to pick players who should benefit the most from playing in tough conditions. The forecast is going to be cold wet and windy from Friday through Sunday, with the worst of the weather taking place on Friday. Players who are excellent ball strikers, and or excel at short game typically play well when the weather gets bad. While it’s hard to pick a player solely on weather, you should use the weather as more of a tiebreaker if needed for the week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report