DFS Alerts
Joel Dahmen is no longer in the field
And the withdrawal list keeps growing as Joel Dahmen has decided to take a pass on this week’s event. Dahmen has been a decent source of value at times this season so he could be on the DFS radar this week. Please remove him from your lineups.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Colt Knost is no longer in the field
Colt Knost is no longer in the field. Playing on a major medical exemption status Knost has decided not to play this week. Knost should not be on the radar of many this week, but if he happens to make it to your roster builds please remove him from your player pool.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Patrick Cantlay is no longer in the field
Patrick Cantlay is no longer in the field. In what has already been a weird week of golf news in terms of player withdrawals, The Pebble Beach Pro-Am took a big blow today when Cantlay took his name out of the field. No injury news to report as of yet, but we will update if any such news surfaces. For now get Cantlay out of your lineups.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Brandt Snedeker is starting to gain steam
The dynamic of a Pro-Am event can often be a hard thing to handicap in terms of DFS golf. This year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be no different and it also appears we could have some bad weather to deal with starting on Friday. Two time champion of this event Brandt Snedeker was already a great play for the week, but with the predicted forecast of cold wind and rain, there is a search to put extra emphasis on players who thrive in bad weather. The combination of his past course history and historically great adverse weather skill set has Snedeker as one of the biggest projected ownership gainers on the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Talor Gooch looks to bounce back from a missed cut
In a way, you could almost see a missed cut coming from Talor Gooch last week. After earning his way into more events via excellent early season play, Gooch narrowly missed playing the weekend in Phoneix. For a player who knew that tour starts would be hard to come by, Gooch now has the luxury of playing in more events this year and will probably have to adjust his goals for the season. Currently ranked inside the top 40 in the FedEx Cup race, Gooch is the type of player who we can look to talent in terms of value for the week. The format of this tournament really favors birdie makers, and Gooch has shown more than enough upside to pay off his price for the week. Some might get off Gooch after last week, but playing in his second Pro-Am the combination of his early hot form and the value in price makes this a great week to jump back on Gooch.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Paul Casey flying under the radar
More and more we are seeing top named European Tour players make The PGA Tour their home early in the year. Due to the Schelde changes and the overall level of competition, players like Paul Casey will tee it up early and often in 2019. Playing in his second Pebble Beach Pro-AM in a row, Casey is a player with immense talent flying a bit under the radar. Currently projected to have ownership less than 10% Casey makes for a great pivot off other players in the same price range in all formats. An excellent ball striker, Casey finished inside the top 10 at last year’s event and is always a threat to compete for a win in any event he plays.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership One of the Few Events where this Golfer can Compete
Furyk isn’t a player that I have targeted for DFS for years. There are only a handful of events where I would even consider him, but this is one of them. As noted in the course breakdown, this is an event where you don’t need length off the tee. All three courses are short and many choose to club down off the tee. Furyk is ranked 13th in my proximity blend and 23rd in par four scoring. He quietly has two top six finishes in his last three starts and he no longer has to worry about the Ryder Cup. He has made four of his last five cuts at this event, highlighted by a T7 here in 2015.
Finally Made a Cut
My final two picks will likely garner very little ownership this week, but they grade out as the best two value plays in my PGA model. Hadley has only made one of his last four cuts on tour, but it was a T20 at last week’s Waste Management Open. The biggest strength in his game is his iron play, which should bode well on courses that place an emphasis on the second shot. Hadley’s biggest weakness is his around the green game, but that has played a minimal role here over the years. This is a pro-am, so scrambling is much easier than your average PGA Tour event. Hadley has played here four times, making three cuts and posting two top ten finishes.
Course Horse without the Ownership
RCB posted a great video of himself putting in the rain at Pebble Beach last weekend. He finished with a birdie on his final hole and called it his favorite course. I’m glad that I saw the Tweet because he graded out really well in my model, but I was a little worried about his course history. His best finish here was last season where he posted a T26. He’s been in solid form recently (top 18 finishes in three of his last four events) and clearly got to this course early to practice. He’s a great total driver of the ball, he’s good with his irons, and he’s a very streaky putter.
Perfect Track for this Golfer
Reavie is a golfer that I hope gets overlooked this week. If you just look at the names priced around him, they are certainly more talented in terms of their long-term form. However, I can think of very few events that set up better for Reavie. His strengths are hitting fairways, dialing in approach shots, and making putts. He’s ranked fourth in this field in strokes gained approach, second in my proximity blend, and 31st in strokes gained putting on poa greens. He has two top four finishes in his last three events and is coming off of a second place finish at this event last season. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling, which puts him on my radar for both cash games and tournaments.
Finally the Time to Hop Back on Spieth
Spieth got off to a hot start at the Farmers Insurance Open, but struggled on the weekend and ended up finishing T35. While his form has been an issue over the last year of play, there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. He’s one of the best putters on poa grass in the world and he should benefit from an event where you don’t need to hit many drivers. All three of the courses this week are sub-7,000 yards and many choose to club down off the tee on most holes. Spieth’s biggest strengths have always been his irons and his short game. He clearly loves this event, going 6-for-6 here with a win, two other top seven finishes, and no finish worse than T22. If you are a Spieth truther and have been waiting for a good week to hop back on, this is it.
Everything Lines up for a Big Week
As many of you may know, I build a PGA model each and every week. The different weights that go into the model are adjusted based on the course and generally, I try to get my top rated golfer close to a score of 100. Generally, the second highest rated golfer in my model is somewhere in the 95-98 range. Johnson is the clear number one this week and the next closest is Jason Day, who has a rating of only 88.7. That’s the biggest gap between my number one and number two golfers that I can ever remember. Johnson is coming off of a win overseas, he’s number one in my stat model, and he has the best course history of any golfer in the field. He loves this event, he loves this course, and he loves putting on poa greens. Even at high ownership, I can’t make a case to fade him in cash games or tournaments.
Doug Ghim looks to make the most of his limited opportunities
Just a few months removed from being the top amateur in the county, Doug Ghim is quickly making a name for himself in the world of professional golf. Having to earn his Web.com Tour card through qualifying school, Ghim is not a full member of the PGA Tour as of yet but will look to make the most of the sponsors invites he can get this season. Currently ranked inside the top 25 on The Web.com Tour money list and playing in his 4th PGA Tour start of the year, Ghim is looking to build on a bit of momentum gained in his last few starts. Prior to his T3 at The Country Club de Bogota Championship Ghim finished inside the top 20 at Torrey Pines. Still relatively cheap across the industry Ghim is a player worth taking a shot on in GPP’s this week. Already in a great spot to start the season, Ghim has taken some of the pressure off his shoulders and should be in a good spot to once again play well this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Jason Kokrak is no longer in the field
Jason Kokrak has withdrawn from the Pebble Beach Pr0-Am. Unlike some of the other players to leave this week’s field, Kokrak could be on the radar of the DFS community. Make sure to take him out of your lineups. Andres Romero will take his place in the field, but will not be in DFS pools. At this time there is no injury news associated with his absence.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Projections are live and Chesson Hadley is trending as a top play
Each and every week on the PGA Tour it’s so important to nail a few value plays for your DFS golf rosters. With this week’s event having a guaranteed three rounds of play, there is a strong argument to take a different approach to the selection of your value plays. While we are always on the hunt for upside, an event that like this one tends to favor a bit more risk-taking than normal. Normally we like our value plays to have the safety of making the cut, but this week more than any we care less about cut making and more about the probability of a golfer posting a top ten or better finish. Fresh off a really strong showing at The WMPO, Chesson Hadley is trending as the top overall play in our DraftKings projection model in terms of Pt/$/K for the week. Playing in his fifth Pebble Beach Pro-AM Hadley will look to improve on his two top tens at this event. Since rejoining the tour full-time last year, Hadley has posted nine top ten or better finishes in his 39 starts. In terms of play with celling, Hadley stands out as a player who can really outperform his price point for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool