10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 17th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, August 17th.
Friday, August 17th
1. Max Scherzer has gotten ahead of hitters 0-2 on 284 occasions this year, most in MLB; that’s a whopping 47 more times than second-place Justin Verlander (237). There was a brief stretch where Scherzer’s elite strikeouts disappeared, but just in time, Max is here to remind us he’s still one of the most dominant (the most dominant?) pitcher in recent memory: over his last four starts, he’s fanned 38, walked just four, and pitched to a 0.96 ERA. Weirdly, in his first two starts this season against the Marlins, Scherzer struck out a combined seven hitters, but his most recent outing against Miami – when he pitched an eight-inning gem and fanned 11 Fish – put to bed any notions that this is anything but a cake matchup for him. Tonight, Scherzer is an absurd -400 favorite at home, and the Marlins have an implied total of 1.50 runs, something I’ve legitimately never seen. At $12,600 at DraftKings, he’s surprisingly affordable given the upside for another double-digit strikeout performance (prior to this start, he had not been priced below $13,000 at DraftKings since May 1st). This is a “don’t overthink it” spot: Max is the first player to lock into your cash game lineups.
2. Since 2017, only three pitchers in MLB (min. 200 IP) have paired strikeout rate above 32 percent with a swinging strike rate over 13 percent: Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Robbie Ray. Amidst all of Ray’s struggles in his injury-marred 2018 campaign, the one thing that has remained is his ability to generate whiffs. In an excellent strikeout matchup against the Padres (24.0% K rate against LHPs is third-highest in MLB), Ray should have no problem reaching a half dozen strikeouts, as he’s done in 13 of his 15 starts this year. The hard contact is always a concern with Ray (his hard-hit rate has risen every year of his career, and he’s at an unsightly 42.7% this year). But assuming the strikeouts are there, he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate at just $7,600, even if he does give up a few runs along the way.
3. Over his last 60 1/3 innings of work (10 starts dating back to June 6th), Carlos Carrasco has posted a Scherzer-like 34.3 percent strikeout rate to go with a Maddux-like 3.4 percent walk rate, amounting to 31.0 strikeouts minus walks. The only pitchers with a 31.0% K-BB over that span are Chris Sale and Justin Verlander. Carrasco’s matchup against the Orioles is arguably as favorable as Scherzer’s, with six of the nine Orioles in the projected starting lineup at 23.8 percent strikeouts or higher against right-handed pitching. Still, the hard hits are a concern (Carrasco’s 47.6% hard hits are third-highest in MLB since the break), and Carrasco’s long history of struggling at Progressive Field has continued this season (4.91 but the hard hits are somewhat of a concern, as is his home/road splits.
4. Here is the complete list of starting pitchers in MLB (min. 30 IP) with a sub-.175 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters this year: Freddy Peralta (although it should be noted that) Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates, both relievers, also meet that threshold). Peralta has struck out 38 of the 109 righties he’s faced (34.9% K rate), and same-handed hitters are slashing a comical .084/.204/.161 against the Brewers rookie flame thrower. Against the Cardinals, who will likely have six or seven righties in the lineup, Peralta finds himself in a high-ceiling matchup given his splits. Red flags abound with Peralta, though: his walk rate is astronomical (although it’s a more manageable 11.0% against righties), and he’s shown a slight home run issue (although it’s been a non-issue against righties at 0.30 HR/9). And then there’s the fact that his strikeout numbers are being inflated by two double-digit strikeout games early in the year. He shouldn’t be anywhere near your cash game lineups, but this is the definition of a high-upside, under-the-radar GPP play if you’re mass multi-entering.
5. Over his last four starts, Walker Buehler has paired a 27.7 percent strikeout rate with a ground ball rate better than 50 percent; that’s a feat only two other pitchers in MLB (Charlie Morton, Carlos Carrasco) can claim over that span. It’s unusual to find a pitcher with the ability to generate grounders and punchouts, and Buehler falls into that category. Even in a tough matchup against the Mariners, Buehler should be on the radar for GPPs. While he is on a team managed by Dave Roberts, which means he could get the early hook, it’s encouraging that he’s reached 90 pitches in each of the past four starts and 100 pitches in two of the past four. For now, the kid gloves seem to have been lifted a bit, which gives Buehler big upside.
6. In 158 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, Nolan Arenado is sporting a 1.369 OPS. Here is the complete list in MLB history of batters (min. 150 PA) with an OPS of 1.369 or better against lefties over a full season: Frank Thomas (1.373 in 1995) and Barry Bonds (1.532 in 2002). Arenado does a lot of his damage in Coors, but he’s no slouch against southpaws on the road, either, with .487 wOBA and .364 ISO this season. Given that third-base is rife with mid-tier options on Friday (Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez, Justin Turner, Anthony Rendon to name a few), and given the fact that Jose Ramirez is in an almost best-case-scenario matchup, it’s conceivable that Arenado comes in at extremely low ownership with the splits advantage. As far as under-the-radar tournament one-offs go, there are few better than Arenado on Friday’s slate.
7. Jose Ramirez has seen a prodigious power increase over the past three seasons, as his isolated power has jumped from a below-average .150 in 2016, up to .265 in 2017 (15th-best in MLB), and culminating in an MLB-leading .332 mark this year. But what sets him apart from your run-of-the-mill power hitter is that while his power has steadily increased, his strikeouts have remained near the lowest in MLB. If the season ended today, Ramirez would be one of just three players since 2002 with a .300+ ISO and a sub-11.0 percent strikeout rate. You may have heard of the other two on the list: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols. Ramirez has reached Troutian heights in that he’s a great play in almost any matchup at almost any price. Even better, he’s a true switch hitter who excels from both sides of the plate. (And while I’ve got the ol’ Baseball Reference queued up, here’s another Ramirez fun fact: he’s currently the only qualified switch hitter not named Mickey Mantle or Chipper Jones to slug 36 homers and post a 1.045 OPS in a season). It’ll be tough to fit in any Indians bats in cash games if you’re working in Scherzer, but in tournaments, Ramirez might be the highest upside bat on the slate in a pristine matchup against Orioles righty David Hess (.371 wOBA, 2.43 HR/9, just 15.3% Ks against LHBs).
8. No hitter in MLB has improved his hard-hit rate more this from this year to last than Eugenio Suarez, whose MLB-leading 51.0 percent rate represents a 17.2 percent jump from his 33.8 percent mark in 2017. We typically like to roster Suarez against a lefty, but we’ll settle for him at this too-cheap price tag against Giants right-hander Casey Kelly, a journeyman filling in for injured Dereck Rodriguez who boasts a career .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters. As with Arenado, the fact that Suarez isn’t in the ideal spot splits-wise means he may come in a bit underowned, which makes him a fantastic option if you’re hunting for home runs in GPPs.
8. While Suarez makes more sense for tournaments, his teammate, Scooter Gennett, is similarly underpriced and makes more sense in cash games. Since 2017, Gennett has a .313 average and a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching; Freddie Freeman is the only other hitter in MLB (min. 600 PA) to match those numbers against right-handed pitching over that stretch. Gennett will benefit from the same matchup as Suarez, only he has the platoon edge in a park that favors lefty power (Great American Ball Park’s 110 rating for lefty home runs is fourth-best in MLB, per FanGraphs). Also like Suarez, he’s simply too cheap at just $4,200 at DraftKings and makes for an excellent mini stack with Suarez and Joey Votto at just $4,100.
10. Since his MLB debut on May 15th, Juan Soto has better on-base percentage (.420) than Paul Goldschmidt (.414), a better slugging percentage (.542) than Giancarlo Stanton (.534), and an identical wOBA (.407) to Nolan Arenado. He’s still not 20 years old. He’s already joined Bryce Harper, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mel Ott, and Tony Conigliero as the only five under-20 players in MLB history with 15-homer seasons, and we’re only midway through August. On a more granular level, Soto has a .542 wOBA against four-seamers, best in MLB, and it’s a pitch Straily relies on heavily, throwing his heater 45.5 percent of the time. I’m very interested in picking on Dan Straily with lefty power, and while Bryce Harper may be the better raw points play, I also love Soto in the same matchup.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!