10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 8th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, August 8th.
1. Jose Fernandez has 192 strikeouts this season, which is an absurd 52 more than the next-highest pitcher on Monday’s slate. His 36.4 K% on the season ranks third in MLB history among qualified starters, and if the strikeout rate holds, he’ll be the only non-Randy-Johnson, non-Pedro-Martinez pitcher to crack the top seven all time in strikeout rate over a single season. His matchup on Monday will be difficult, as the San Francisco Giants strike out at just a 17.2% rate against righties, the best mark in the National League. Then again…
2. Jose Fernandez has faced teams that currently rank in the top 10 in lowest K% against righties on seven occasions this year, and he’s averaged 8.3 strikeouts in those outings, only dipping below six strikeouts once. That one instance? It was on April 23rd, when he was held to five strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants. Even if the strikeouts take a small dip from what we typically expect, Fernandez is really the only option as a cash game pitcher on Monday.
3. Collin McHugh has three 10-strikeout games in 2016, the same number as Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, and Jon Gray. The SP2 slot is going to be difficult to fill on multi-pitcher sites on Monday, but McHugh does have some strikeout upside against a Twins team that ranks in the bottom third of MLB with a 21.6% K rate to righties.
4. Jake Odorizzi has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts at the Rogers Centre (and he hasn’t exceeded five innings in any of those starts). Odorizzi is a true reverse splits pitcher (career .323 wOBA versus righties, .285 versus lefties), and he’s got a career 45.2% fly ball rate against righties. That is a recipe for disaster against a Jays lineup loaded with power righties like Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, and even Devon Travis.
5. Cole Hamels has had quality starts (6+ innings, 3 or fewer earned runs) his last four times at Coors Field. Only Ian Kennedy, with five straight quality starts at Coors, has a longer active streak among current MLB pitchers. Maybe more telling is that Hamels has struck out seven batters in each of his last three games at Coors. When you couple Hamels’ past success with Rockies starter Tyler Anderson’s surprising effectiveness at home this year (3.32 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 22.0 K%, .326 wOBA allowed), Monday doesn’t feel like a day you’re required to go all-in on Coors bats.
6. But if you do want some Coors bats (and let’s be honest – we’ll all have some Coors bats), look to Adrian Beltre, who is surprisingly affordable ($3800 at FanDuel, $4000 at DraftKings). He’s one of two qualified hitters, along with Victor Martinez, to post a .390+ wOBA, .200+ ISO, and strikeout rate below 12.0% against righties since 2014 (he’s at .399, .212, and 11.0%). Tyler Anderson solid ground ball rate at home (52.7%) shouldn’t stand in the way of Beltre’s having a good game, as his .253 ISO against ground ball pitchers ranks eighth in MLB this year (min. 100 PA).
7. Manny Machado’s three-homer, seven-RBI game was the first by an Oriole since Cal Ripken’s three-homer, eight-RBI performance on May 28th, 1996. Given the likely ownership spike, he may be worth a fade in tournaments on Monday, as Athletics starter Kendall Graveman ranks in the top 18 in MLB in both limiting hard contact (26.9 Hard%) and inducing ground balls (55.6% GB rate) to RHB. Plus, going to O.co, Machado faces a serious ballpark downgrade from his home park. Monday is loaded with third base options, and given the glut of third base options in favorable spots on Monday (Beltre, Nolan Arenado, Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, just to name a few), it’s not worth chasing points in less-than-ideal matchup.
8. Against right-handed hitters in 2016, Tyler Duffey has an 8.47 ERA and a .415 wOBA. That is not a typo. In just over 45 innings pitched against righties this year, he’s allowed 13 home runs…one fewer than Jose Fernandez has allowed to righties in his entire career (216.1 innings). Which means, of course, that Astros bats are an ideal tournament stack if you want to bet on a low-scoring affair at Coors.
9. Eddie Rosario has a .372 batting average over the past 30 days, which ranks fifth in MLB behind only Joey Votto (.405), Jose Altuve (.387), Daniel Murphy (.386), and Miguel Cabrera (.375). If you want more advanced stats, Rosario’s 177 wRC+ over that span ranks ninth in MLB.
10. Jonathan Villar has a 48.6% hard hit rate over the past 30 days, the third-best rate in MLB over that stretch. Now, he’s also got a 2.25 GB/FB ratio, but given his speed, hitting the ball on the ground is not always a bad thing (and if you need proof, consider that Billy Hamilton, who could lead the world in steals, has a fly ball rate ten percentage points higher than Villar’s and continues to have problems reaching base consistently). While Villar prefers hitting from the right side of the plate (career .340 wOBA versus LHP, .311 wOBA versus RHB), in a matchup against Braves righty Rob Whalen and with AJ Pierzynski likely behind the plate, Villar should have no trouble adding to his league-leading steals.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!