10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 15th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 15th.
Friday, June 15th
1. After last Sunday’s dominant performance over the Tigers, Corey Kluber now has five straight games of at least seven strikeouts and zero walks, a feat that has been accomplished just one other time in MLB history (Curt Schilling, 2002). Kluber has faced 168 straight batters without issuing a walk. On top of that, the elite strikeouts, which were a bit tempered to start the year, have returned. Take a look:
Kluber K% from Opening Day to May 13th, 2018: 24.8%
Kluber K% over the last 30 days (since May 14th): 32.6%
We’ve been spoiled on Friday slates over the last few weeks, typically having several aces to choose from. This Friday is different, with Kluber standing alone at the top. DraftKings has priced Kluber at a hefty $13,600, which makes him difficult to fit in without sacrificing bats. Even so, he’s the obvious building block for cash games in a winnable matchup against the Twins. No other pitcher on this slate comes close to Kluber in terms of ceiling; lock him in your cash lineups and go from there.
2. I’m such a fan of Ross Stripling that I couldn’t limit myself to one note about him, so here are a few:
— Since joining the rotation for good on May 6th, Stripling has allowed just 19.2 percent hard hits, the best mark in MLB.
— This year, he’s thrown a strike on the first pitch 72.8 percent of the time, also tops in MLB (min. 60 IP).
— In his last six starts (36 2/3 innings), Stripling has walked two batters; in that same time frame, Tyler Chatwood has walked two batters in a single inning eight times.
It’s telling that despite Kluber being the obvious top pitcher on the slate, his opponent (the Twins) have a 2.78 implied run total, the same implied total as Stripling’s opponent, the San Francisco Giants. While it would take serious value opening up to fit both Kluber and Stripling into your cash lineup, his sub-$10K price tag at DraftKings makes him an excellent tournament play in non-Kluber lineups.
3. In Jon Lester’s last 10 games against the Cardinals dating back to 2016, he’s not allowed more than three earned runs in any game, and he’s struck out 6+ batters in seven of those games. Listen: it’s obvious that Lester’s 2.22 ERA is a mirage: in fact, no pitcher in MLB has a larger gap between his ERA (2.22) and his FIP (3.98). Regression is certainly coming. But even when it does, this is not a bad pitcher. despite 15 games on Friday, the slate looks surprisingly tough at SP2, and Lester is price more than reasonably at just $8,300 at DraftKings. Lester possesses a safe cash game floor if you’re willing to bet he can stave off regression a bit longer.
4. Reynaldo Lopez is one of five pitchers in MLB – joining Max Scherzer, Miles Mikolas, Jacob deGrom, and Miles Mikolas – to post a sub-.265 wOBA and a HR/9 of 0.5 or lower to righties this year. This is significant because on Friday, Lopez will face at least five right-handed bats in a matchup with the Tigers (and the lefties, guys like Leonys Martin and Niko Goodrum and 50-year-old Victor Martinez, aren’t exactly world beaters). Like Lester, Lopez is an obvious regression candidate: his 3.26 ERA paints a far prettier picture than his 5.19 SIERA. There aren’t many sure things at the low-end at picture, though, and the matchup sets up nicely for Lopez to be one of the best point-per-dollar arms on the slate.
5. Take a look at the top five swinging-strike rates in MLB on four-seam fastballs, per Baseball Savant, with the pitcher’s average fastball velocity in parentheses:
James Paxton – 8.4% (96.0 mph)
Max Scherzer – 8.2% (94.3 mph)
Justin Verlander – 7.8% (94.9 mph)
Vince Velasquez – 7.7% (94.5 mph)
Brent Suter – 7.5% (87.0 mph)
Of the 201 pitchers who have thrown 200+ four-seamers this year, Suter’s fastball ranks…201st in velocity. And yet, he’s getting guys to swing and miss, which is kind of amazing, and it speaks to his ability to locate the pitch. It’s also noteworthy that the 83.6 mph average exit velocity on the pitch is second-best in MLB. He throws the pitch nearly 70 percent of the time, which explains the slight gains in his strikeout this year, as he’s up to 20.3 percent – certainly not great, but acceptable given his low price tag. On Friday, he faces the Phillies, who strike out at a 23.1 percent clip against lefties, and more importantly, have a .125 ISO, third-worst in MLB. There’s nothing exciting about rostering Suter, but he’s the definition of a safe cash game SP2 on a slate that doesn’t offer much in the way of enticing bargain pitchers.
6. Only four players in MLB have a .220 ISO, .390 wOBA, and 48 percent hard hits against righties this year: Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, and … Shin-Soo Choo. Nobody would blame you for not wanting to spend $4,600 on the aging Choo. But if you put aside the name, he’s a great play in the Texas heat against Chad Bettis (as is his teammates Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo, whose .194 and .250 BABIPs over the last two weeks have them priced down. Gallo’s hard hits are 72.2% over that stretch, and Mazara’s are 51.5%…these guys are going to put up better numbers very soon). Opposing pitcher Chad Bettis has allowed five earned runs in three straight games, and the he’ll be relieved by a Rockies bullpen that has posted a 6.12 ERA over the last 30 days, worst in MLB. Stack up the Rangers, or use Choo as a one-off in tournaments.
7. Since 2017, only one hitter in MLB has a .300 ISO with a sub-10 percent strikeout rate against lefties: Justin Turner. On Friday, Turner has one of the best matchups imaginable for a lefty-mashing hitter when he faces Derek Holland, owner of MLB’s second-highest wOBA against right-handed hitters since 2017 (.390). Dodgers righties are priority spends on this slate, and it all starts with Turner.
8. Here are Justin Bour’s outside-the-zone chase rates by year:
2015 – 32.7
2016 – 28.6
2017 – 30.9
2018 – 22.4
Now, take a look at Bour’s barrel percentage by year (barrels are a Statcast metric that defines balls that are essentially the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle):
2015 – 9.0
2016 – 10.1
2017 – 10.8
2018 – 12.2
Admitting that I haven’t exactly gone out of my way to scout Justin Bour film, I’m going to do some inferring here: Justin Bour is becoming a better hitter. He’s chasing fewer bad pitches, and as a result, has steadily made better contact each year in his MLB career. He’s got an ISO over .220, a hard-hit rate over 35 percent, and a HR/FB of over 20 percent each of the last four years against righties. Kevin Gausman, though a good pitcher, struggles with lefty power, and Baltimore’s Camden Yards was the second-best park in MLB for lefty homers last year. This all feels like perfect recipe for a Bour home run. As long as we’re calling homers, be sure to hop over and play Joe’s “Home Run Derby”:https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/home-run-derby-friday-june-15th-2563919.
9. Only four players in MLB have an ISO of .168 or higher and a strikeout rate of 11 percent or lower against right-handed pitchers this year: Michael Brantley, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Kinsler, and Corey Dickerson. Dickerson (as well as the rest of the Pirates’ lefties like Austin Meadows, Gregory Polanco, and Colin Moran) finds himself in an almost ideal matchup on Friday, as he’ll take on Matt Harvey and his absurd .418 wOBA since 2017; not surprisingly, that’s the highest mark of any qualified pitcher in MLB. Dickerson is a perfect cash game play, as he chokes up in two-strike counts (similar to Joey Votto or Anthony Rizzo), which allows him to put the ball in play and carry such a low strikeout rate, even if he does sacrifice a bit of power. He’s affordable, as well, at just $3,900 at DraftKings.
10. Trevor Story’s strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers has decreased each year he’s been in the major leagues: he made a slight decrease from 33.9 percent to 33.3 percent, but this year, he’s taken it to another level, with a low (for Trevor Story) 26.4 percent K rate. Despite this, he’s been able to increase his power, going from a .310 ISO in his rookie year, to a .353 in 2017, to a .360 this year. Even if you’re not stacking Rockies (understandable, given this team’s struggles outside of Coors), Story makes for an excellent one-off against Rangers lefty Yohander Mendez. Mendez has struck out just 17.5 percent of batters at Triple-A, and he’s shown a serious home run problem, allowing 1.75 per nine this year. Story has an excellent chance of going deep, and his $4,900 tag at DraftKings might actually keep him lower-owned than he should be.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!