10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 8th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 8th.
Friday, June 8th
1. At just 29 years old, Chris Sale is already in the midst of his fourth season with 30 percent strikeouts; no other player in MLB history has ever had four such seasons, and in fact, the only under-30 players with more than one season of 30 percent strikeouts are Pedro Martinez (3), Clayton Kershaw (2), and Kerry Wood (2). Sale and the Red Sox opened as -300 favorites over the hapless White Sox, owners of an MLB-high 27.7 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this year. Best of all, Sale isn’t priced through the roof; his $11,100 price tag at DraftKings is more than reasonable given the upside for double-digit strikeouts. Even on a slate with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, and Coors Field, Chris Sale is a building block and an ideal SP1 in cash games.
2. The Texas Rangers have allowed 10 opposing starting pitchers to reach double-digits in strikeouts this year, more than any other team in MLB; on those 10 occasions, the starting pitcher recording 10+ strikeouts has been a Houston Astro six times (Cole twice, Morton twice, Verlander and McCullers once each). On Friday, Justin Verlander meets the Rangers for the fourth time this season, and if not for the ridiculous depth of Friday’s pitching (a welcome reprieve from “Chalk Jalen Beeks Night”), Verlander would be a lock for cash games. As it stands, he’s better suited for tournaments, especially considering the park downgrade, where he’ll have to pitch in the Texas heat rather than in pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park. In addition to striking out at a 26.0% clip against righties (second-highest in MLB), the Rangers rank 24th in wOBA (.302) and 25th in wRC+ (84), meaning Verlander has a realistic shot of posting a quality start with 10+ punchouts.
3. Since 2017, Jacob deGrom has 21 starts at home; in those 21 starts, he’s struck out 10+ batters nine times, he’s struck out 8+ batters 13 times, and he’s struck out 6+ batters 19 times. During that time, he’s pitched to a 2.79 ERA while allowing a .266 wOBA and 28.7 percent hard hits; the only other pitchers (min. 100 IP) who can say that are James Paxton, Aaron Nola, and Jose Berrios. deGrom is clearly a pitcher who is aided by his home park, and while there’s no question his matchup with the Yankees on Friday is scary, CitiField does at least somewhat mitigate the home run threats up and down the Yankees lineup. Plus, the risk is baked into his price, as he’s an affordable $10,600 at DraftKings. On a slate with attractive options at the high end (Verlander, Strasburg, Sale, Bauer) in addition to some interesting mid-range arms (Vince Velasquez, Caleb Smith, Walker Buehler, Masahiro Tanaka, to name a few), deGrom presents the opportunity to get double-digit strikeouts at what should be very low ownership. It’s risky, but it could pay off in large-field tournaments.
4. Since the start of May, Vince Velasquez has a 32.6 percent rate and a 2.14 ERA; the only other pitchers (min. 20 IP) to post match those numbers are deGrom and Ross Stripling (which is pretty interesting, too, though he isn’t pitching on Friday). Somewhat quietly, Velasquez has been putting it all together this season, ramping up the strikeouts while posting a solid 3.82 ERA, which is supported by a 3.56 FIP. On Friday, Velasquez takes on a dangerous Brewers lineup, which may scare some off. But again, Velasquez is priced down as a result; after being priced at $9,400 and $9,900 in his previous two matchups, he’s down to $8,300 on Friday. Velasquez is particularly tough on righties (31.5% K rate, .236 wOBA allowed this year), so if the Brewers roll out a righty-heavy lineup, Velasquez presents an opportunity for huge upside at likely moderate ownership.
5. In 2018, Matt Harvey has allowed 17 extra-base hits to lefties, compared to just 18 strikeouts. If we pan out another year for a larger sample and include 2017, Harvey has 38 extra-base hits to just 46 strikeouts. Needless to say, this lines up well for anyone swinging a lefty bat in the Cardinals lineup, which is essentially Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. “(player-popup Carpenter has turned his season around (66 wRC+ in March/April; 133 wRC+ since May 1st) and has by far the highest PlateIQ rating on the day: he’s at 76.15, and no other player is even over 70. Dexter Fowler is still fledgling, but you don’t need to be Bill James to diagnose the problem; after never falling below .300 BABIP over any full season of his career dating back to 2008, Fowler is at .203 this year, and this despite a 37.0 percent hard hit rate that is second-highest of his career. He’ll turn it around, and he’s dirt cheap across the industry as a result of his struggles. Both of these players could easily go yard in Great American Small Park.
6. Last year, Matt Olson barreled up 21 balls, and all but one of them was a home run (and the non-homer was a double). This year, Olson has barreled up (take a wild guess) 21 balls, and 10 of them haven’t resulted in home runs, including five fly outs. Clearly, Olson hasn’t had the good fortune that he had last year when he’s squared up the ball, but the power surge is here, as Olson has four homers in the month of June, including last night’s shot off Jason Hammel. Junis is very much a fly ball pitcher to lefties (47.5% this year, seventh-highest in MLB), and Olson has a .640 slugging against fly ball pitchers since 2017, third-best in MLB behind only J.D. Martinez and Bryce Harper. He should have no problem lifting the ball, and he should have no problem hitting the ball hard (as he’s done 83.3% of the time this month). That feels like a recipe for a home run.
7. Here is the complete list of players with a .220 ISO and 50 percent hard hits against right-handed pitching this year: Olson, J.D. Martinez, and David Peralta. Despite a favorable matchup against righty German Marquez at Coors Field, Peralta’s price tag isn’t egregious, and being on the road ensures that Peralta and the D-backs get nine innings’ worth of at-bats. He’s an elite play. And if you’re still not sold, maybe some super small sample (14 PA) batted ball data will give you the extra push, so here goes: Peralta has a .659 wOBA against righty curveballs this year, second-best in MLB. German Marquez throws 24.5 percent curveballs, 10th-most in MLB.
8.
Ketel Marte extra-base hits from March 29th – May 27th (199 PA) – 10
Ketel Marte extra-base hits from May 28th – June 7th (29 PA) – 10
Marte has been an extra-base machine over the past week and change, so much so that he ranks third in MLB in ISO over that stretch, trailing only Matt Kemp and Edwin Encarnacion. This is the epitome of small sample size nonsense. But here’s the thing: he costs $2,900, and he’s playing in Coors. With so many desirable high-end arms to choose from, we’ll need cheap options like Marte to fill in the cracks, and his eligibility at both second-base and shortstop makes him a prime play at DraftKings, particularly if he draws a decent spot in the lineup.
9. Take a look at Cody Bellinger’s ground ball and fly ball rates by month this year:
March/April – 43.4% GB, 39.8% FB
May – 40.0% GB, 45.7% FB
June – 25.0% GB, 75.0% FB
For a hitter with Bellinger’s power, more fly balls and fewer ground balls is definitely a good thing, and that’s what’s been happening over the course of the season. Bellinger has struggled mightily this season, as pitchers have clearly made adjustments after his initial power surge in mid-2017. He’s elevating balls more as of late, which could be a sign that he’s making an adjustment himself, and after yesterday’s two-run shot off Tyler Glasnow, he’s now homered in three straight. Against homer-prone Brandon McCarthy, Bellinger is firmly in play at just $3,900 at DraftKings (and don’t forget about his teammate Justin Turner, who’s as cheap as he’ll be all season at just $3,500).
10. Kendrys Morales’s 95.7 average exit velocity over the past two weeks is eighth-best in MLB, and the names he trails should tell you how much he’s been crushing: they include Matt Olson, Aaron Judge, Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, and Mike Trout. Morales is a fantastic salary-saving option at the first base position in a winnable matchup against Orioles righty Andrew Cashner.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!