10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 22nd
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, July 22nd.
1. Here are Rich Hill’s K/BB ratios by month this season:
April – 1.40
May – 1.56
June – 2.07
July – 29.00
Yes, he’s fanned 29 batters for every batter he’s walked this month. Obviously we’re dealing with a smaller sample in July, but it’s clear that Hill has overcome the blister issue that hindered him for the early part of the year. Over his last three starts, he’s looked an awful lot like his teammate, Clayton Kershaw, as he’s notched strikeout after strikeout without while rarely issuing free passes. In fact, he’s the only player this year or last year with three consecutive games of 9+ strikeouts, one or fewer walks, and one or fewer earned runs. Vegas agrees, as Hill is the largest favorite of the day against a Braves team with a low implied total of 3.23 runs. In my mind, he’s the clear top option in all formats.
2. Since 2015, only Clayton Kershaw (27) has more games of 8+ strikeouts at home than Chris Archer 26. Archer has long been a pitcher with pretty drastic home/road splits, and while he’s allowed a few more runs at Tropicana Field this year than is customary for him (3.70 ERA at home this year compared to 2.65 and 2.94 in the last two seasons), his strikeout upside at home is as high as ever, as evidenced by his 32.7% strikeout rate at the Trop (sixth-best in MLB). Archer finds himself in a boom-or-bust matchup against the Rangers, who have both a high strikeout rate (23.7%, fifth-highest in MLB) and a high ISO (.196, fifth-highest) against right-handed pitching. Eight strikeouts is a very real possibility in this matchup, but the likelihood that Archer will give up at least a couple earned runs (as he’s done in each of his past 12 starts) pushes him just below Hill in terms of upside.
3. David Price has been elite at limiting hard contact in a very small sample against lefties this year (17.1 Hard%), but against right-handed batters, that number more than doubles (37.7%). His fly ball rate against righties also jumps to 45.7%, compared to 17.1% against lefties. His inability to manage contact against right-handers is problematic for today’s matchup, as he’ll take on an Angels team that should roll out eight right-handed bats, and that now includes Mike Trout. The Angels have the third-lowest implied run total of the day at 3.90 runs, and Price has been fantastic after scuffling a bit in his first few starts. However, the Angels have a low 20.1% strikeout rate against lefties, and Price no longer has the elite stuff to just mow down this high-contact offense the way his teammate Chris Sale did. Those factors combine to make Price the third-best option of tonight’s high-end pitchers. He’s a really difficult sell at DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he’s the most expensive pitcher of the day.
4. Since entering the league in 2016, Sean Manaea has dominated left-handed batters, allowing just a .223 wOBA on 24.8% hard contact; he’s one of just two pitchers in MLB (min. 50 IP) to post those numbers, with Danny Duffy being the other. His skill set matches up nicely against a Mets team whose dangerous hitters are lefties, and he should be able to neutralize Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Lucas Duda. The real selling point here, though, is his price; at just $6,600 at DraftKings, he’s priced below guys like Jeremy Hellickson, Brent Suter, and Collin McHugh (in his first start back from the DL). At FanDuel, his price tag is much more appropriate, as he’s the sixth-most-expensive pitcher at $8,600.
5. Here is the list of starting pitchers with a 30.0%+ strikeout rate and a 15.8%+ swinging strike rate this season (min. 50 IP): Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and … Danny Salazar. Now, to be clear, there are all sorts of issues with Salazar’s game – walks, home runs, walks, hard contact, and did I mention walks? – that make him strictly a GPP play. But the ability to strike out hitters never left the Indians right-hander. In his most recent rehab start, he fanned nine batters over six scoreless innings, so he appears to be all systems go, and he’s priced at a steep discount from where he’s been priced at various points in his career. Vegas has given the Blue Jays a low 4.05 implied run total (fifth-lowest on the slate). If Salazar can go five or six strong innings and limit the damage, he’s got tremendous upside.
6. Take a look at the table below, which compares some DFS-relevant numbers of Ryan Zimmerman’s last two calendar years (215 plate appearances) against left-handed pitching to those of a mystery player:
| Stat (vs. LHB) | Zimmerman | ??? |
|---|---|---|
| PA | 215 | 216 |
| HR | 15 | 18 |
| wOBA | .394 | .401 |
| ISO | .317 | .349 |
| K% | 15.8% | 24.1% |
| Hard% | 46.6% | 45.5% |
| wRC+ | 146 | 152 |
Now, before I name the mystery player, let’s look at what we’ve got. Both players crush left-handed pitching, and while the mystery player has a bit more power, Zimmermann mostly makes up the difference by making more contact: his 15.6% strikeout rate is rare for a hitter with such power. So who is the mystery player?
Giancarlo Stanton. Zimmerman is an elite hitter against left-handed pitching, and on Saturday, he’s in hitter-friendly Chase Field against faces Arizona lefty Anthony Banda, making his major league debut. Zimmerman is priced affordably across the industry, and he’s one of the top point-per-dollar options at first base.
7. I’ve mentioned this before in this column, but if you’re planning on stacking Yankees, it’s best to do it against fly ball pitchers, like Seattle’s Ariel Miranda, whose 51.4% fly ball rate is highest among qualified pitchers in MLB. The Yankees have a .223 ISO against fly ballers, tied for third-best in MLB; factoring in their .110 ISO against ground ballers (third-lowest in MLB), it’s clear that this is a good spot for a few Yankees home runs. Aaron Judge owns an MLB-high .430 ISO against Miranda’s primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, and if he gets hold of one, not even spacious SafeCo Field will be able to contain it.
8. There are four players in MLB with a .400+ wOBA, 280+ ISO, and 40.0% hard hits against righties: Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and … Travis Shaw. Jeremy Hellickson’s 11.6 K% against lefties says Shaw (and Eric Thames, and maybe even Jonathan Villar) should have no trouble putting the ball in play. In hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, the Brewers lefties (especially Shaw and Thames) are a nice place to look for a one-off home run in tournaments.
9. Josh Bell is having a fine rookie season for the Pirates; in fact, he’s the first Pirates rookie since Jason Bay (2004) to post 17 home runs and 17 doubles, and he’s only played 95 games. Last night, he took full advantage of the benefits of Coors Field, hitting a single, double, and triple. Overall, the Pirates’ high-contact approach (their 18.7% K rate is fourth-lowest in MLB) seems well-suited to Coors, and Bell’s price at DraftKings has dropped from $3,900 to $3,600 after his three-hit performance. We can’t expect another 13-run outburst from Pittsburgh, but Bell, along with other low-priced Pirates (Josh Harrison at $3,700, Gregory Polanco at $3,800, Adam Frazier at $3,700) are all excellent point-per-dollar plays.
10. Against left-handed pitchers since 2015, Wilmer Flores has a higher wOBA than Jose Altuve (.406, Altuve is at .401), a higher ISO than George Springer (.301, Springer is at .280), and a higher wRC+ than Kris Bryant (160, Bryant is at 158). He’s destroyed lefties over the past three seasons, and with a sample of 284 plate appearances, it’s looking more and more like his skills against southpaws are legitimate. The point here is not to suggest that Flores is a better hitter than Altuve, Springer, or Bryant (he’s not, by a long shot). But he’s been massively productive when he has the platoon advantage, and he’s absurdly priced at $2,500 at DraftKings. While I love Sean Manaea, his .308 wOBA and 38.4% hard hits against righties makes Flores – particularly if he’s batting in the heart of the order near fellow righty Yoenis Cespedes – an elite salary saver.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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