10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 31st
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, July 31st, 2016.
1. Noah Syndergaard has allowed 29 stolen bases in 2016…that’s just two fewer than the entire Royals pitching staff. If Charlie Blackmon (who leads the Rockies with 13 steals) manages to get on base on Sunday, it’ll be off to the races.
2. Corey Kluber has recorded eight strikeouts in each of his last two games, but the odds of a three-peat on Sunday are slim – his opponent, the Athletics, have allowed starting pitchers to record 8+ strikeouts on just seven occasions this year – that’s tied with the Angels for the fewest such games in MLB, trailing only the Giants, who have allowed opposing starters to fan 8+ on just six occasions.
3. Michael Pineda has a 27.6 K% this year for the Yankees. Only two Yankees starters in history (min. 100 IP) have a K% above 27.0% – Joba Chamberlain (28.3%) in 2008 and David Cone (27.6%) in 1997. Pineda’s strikeout rate will almost certainly decrease somewhat before the end of the year, but the slide probably won’t start on Sunday, as he faces a Rays team that fans at a 24.3% clip against righties, third-most in MLB, and has allowed pitchers with far lesser strikeout stuff than Pineda (Michael Fulmer, Nick Tropeano, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Rick Porcello, Jake Peavy, Tyler Duffey, to name a few) to exceed eight punchouts against them.
4. Aaron Sanchez has quality starts in 80 percent of his starts this year. The only players with a higher quality start percentage? Clayton Kershaw (88%) and Madison Bumgarner (82%). Sanchez has a stiff test ahead of him on Sunday, as he’s charged with facing an Orioles team that torches both right-handed pitchers (.193 ISO, ranks second in MLB) and ground ball pitchers (.216 ISO, best in MLB). Even worse is the fact that Baltimore has accounted for 40 percent of Sanchez’s home runs allowed in 2016 – on June 11, Pedro Alvarez, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters homered off of Sanchez. He’s only allowed six other home runs all year.
5. Eighty-eight pitchers (including, yes, Bartolo Colon) have average fastball velocities that exceed Kyle Hendricks’ 87.2 mph. And yet…Hendricks has a 1.36 home ERA this year, just a shade below Clayton Kershaw’s league-leading 1.36 mark. In four appearances at Wrigley Field in July (three starts and one two-inning relief appearance), he hasn’t allowed an earned run.
6. Patrick Corbin has allowed 3+ earned runs in two thirds of his starts this year (14 of 21), tied with Matt Wisler for most in MLB this year.
7. Carlos Correa averages one home run every 13.7 at-bats against fly ball pitchers. Against ground ball pitchers? He averages one home run every 64.5 at-bats. Sure, there’s some small sample size trickery going on there (he’s only got 129 career at-bats against ground ball pitchers). But his .248/.319/.372 slash line against ground ballers is also unimpressive for an elite hitter, and it makes him an easy fade against Mike Pelfrey (61.1% ground ball rate versus RHP) on Sunday.
8. On the other side of that game, James McCann could emerge as a chalky, cheap catcher option against left-hander Dallas Keuchel. Just know that Keuchel has a 57.6% career ground ball rate against righties, and in 120 at-bats, McCann has never hit a home run against a ground ball pitcher.
9. Mookie Betts homered for the 44th time in his career last night, and he’s quickly becoming one of the game’s quintessential cash game plays for his ability to score points in a variety of ways. Consider this: he’s one of eight players in MLB history with 40+ home runs, 40+ steals, and an .296+ average in his first three seasons, and he’s preceded on the list by a litany of all-world hitters – Trout, CarGo, Braun, Hanley, and Griffey are the last five on the list.
10. Ryan Schimpf has a .740 slugging percentage in the month of July, which is tied for fifth-highest by a rookie in any single month in MLB history, just a shade better than Albert Pujols .739 month of April in his rookie year of 2001. FanDuel is playing a weird game of chicken, refusing to significantly raise his price (although he is up to $2700), and until he stops hitting, Schimpf is in play against right-handers. On Sunday, he faces Reds righty Homer Bailey, fresh off Tommy John surgery.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
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