10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 4th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Tuesday, July 4th.
1. Only four pitchers in MLB have a 58.0%+ ground ball rate and a sub-27.0% hard hit rate to righties this year: Alex Wood, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and … Jimmy Nelson. He’s been dominant against righties this year, a skill that should come in handy against an Orioles team mostly devoid of dangerous left-handed bats (when they last faced a right-handed pitcher on July 2nd, Seth Smith was the only lefty to crack the lineup). With no clear-cut top option for the main slate on Tuesday, Nelson enters the conversation, as he provides a nice combination of savings and upside.
2. Over the past 30 days, Jameson Taillon has a 79.3 MPH average exit velocity; that’s the lowest in MLB by a good bit, with the second-lowest belonging to Rafael Montero at 81.2 MPH. After being diagnosed with cancer early in the season and returning without missing a beat, Taillon has been one of the stories of the season. He’s coming off the heels of one of his best starts of the year, as he held the potent Rays offense scoreless over 6 1/3 frames, and on Tuesday, he’s gets the Phillies, owners of a .299 wOBA (ranked 29th in MLB), .135 ISO (29th), and 82 wRC+ (28th) against righties. There’s also a bit of strikeout upside, as Philadelphia strikes out at a 23.8% clip against righties this year, sixth-highest in MLB. Taillon will never be a pitcher with an elite ceiling, but he’s an excellent cash game option in this pristine matchup.
3. The Chicago Cubs rank dead last in line drive rate (16.9%), 26th in hard contact (29.8%), 24th in wOBA (.309), and 24th in wRC+ (88), where, for just a bit of context, they’re sandwiched between the Braves and the Royals. Shockingly, the World Series champs are not an offense to be feared against right-handed pitching this year. The Chris Archer Hard Contact Mystery continues, as the Rays’ ace continues to demonstrate elite stuff while getting hit hard, with a 39.7% hard hit rate that is fourth-highest among qualified starters. There is risk here, particularly on the road, where he’s been a far inferior pitcher in recent years (since 2016, Archer has a 3.02 ERA at home, compared to a 5.02 ERA on the road). But Archer is an elite tournament option, as nobody else on Tuesday’s main slate can touch his upside.
4. Corey Kluber finished the month of June with 64 strikeouts against just six earned runs. It was only the 10th time in MLB history that a player put up those numbers in a calendar month, with the last being Pedro Martinez in September of 1999. Since returning from the DL on June 1st, Kluber has been on another level, striking out 41.0% of batters he’s faced with an 18.1% swinging strike rate while allowing a 17.9% hard hit rate (and keep in mind that the league average hard hit rate is 32.2%). He had four games of double-digit strikeouts in June, when only seven other pitchers have had four games with 10+ Ks all season. I probably didn’t even need the italics – Kluber’s numbers speak for themselves. In a matchup against the Padres, who rank 28th in wOBA (.301) and wRC+ (85) and strike out at a 25.6% clip against righties, he’s arguably a better play than Clayton Kershaw on the late slate.
5. Only two players in MLB have a sub-11.0% K rate and a hard hit rate above 40% against lefties this year. They’re both somewhat surprising, and they’re both excellent cash game options against lefties on Tuesday, Justin Smoak against C.C. Sabathia, and Justin Turner against Patrick Corbin.
6. Take a look at these two sets of numbers:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| wOBA | .259 | .385 |
| wRC+ | 52 | 184 |
| K% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
Based on those numbers, Player A looks like a sub-replacement-level player, while Player B looks like an All-Star. But they’re the same player. Player A represents Orlando Arcia’s numbers from the beginning of the season up to May 17th, and Player B represents Arcia’s numbers from May 18th onward. It’s worth noting that Arcia also has an unsustainable .425 BABIP since May 18th, and he’s putting up those numbers despite a decrease in hard contact (up to May 17th, his Hard% was 31.0%, and since May 18th, it’s dropped to 27.4%. Arcia’s low lineup spot makes him a tough play in cash games, but he’s becoming increasingly difficult to leave out of Milwaukee stacks.
7. Over the past 30 days, Ian Happ has 15 barrels (and for those unfamiliar, a barrel is a Statcast metric that measures balls hit with essentially the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle); the only player with more during that stretch is Aaron Judge. Against Chris Archer, Happ is nothing more than a tournament dart, but Happ has serious power, and he’s a bat worth monitoring moving forward.
8. Marcell Ozuna has a .438 ISO against right-handed fastballs this year, third-best in MLB, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt (.458) and Yonder Alonso (.446). Lance Lynn throws fastballs 76.04% of the time this year, with only Bartolo Colon (80.97%) throwing a higher percentage of fastballs (min. 1000 pitches). This is purely an off-the-radar tournament play, as Lynn has been elite against right-handed hitters throughout his career (.278 wOBA, 26.6 K%, 28.1 Hard%). But Lynn has been hit hard recently, allowing 17 earned runs and seven home runs over his last three starts. Six of those hum runs have been by right-handed hitters (which is noteworthy in itself – in 2015, his last full season in the majors, he allowed three homers to righties all season). Lynn has looked off recently, and the Marlins bats should go really overlooked.
9. Charlie Blackmon has 10 triples this year…twice as many as second-place Zack Cozart and Nolan Arenado. In fact, the last player with 10+ triples before the All-Star break was Jose Reyes in 2011. Blackmon has a crazy .527 wOBA at home against righties this year, ranking only behind Aaron Judge (.537). Blackmon has all the traits of a perfect cash game play, but on a late slate that features both Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber and not much in the way of low-priced pitching, it’s going to be tough to fit him in, making him a potentially elite tournament play given the spot.
10. I’ll close this one out with a few random notes about the Coors Field game taking place this evening between the Rockies and Reds:
— Homer Bailey has two straight starts of three or fewer innings pitched, two or fewer strikeouts, and six or more earned runs. The last Reds pitcher to have two straight such games was David Williams in 2006. It’s only happened two other times in Reds franchise history. Play Rockies wherever you can.
— Since 2015, Adam Duvall has a .320 ISO against ground ball pitchers like Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, which is second-best in baseball, trailing only Edwin Encarnacion.
— Zack Cozart, on the other hand, has struggled against ground ball pitchers, posting just a .234/.285/.341 slash line (.626 OPS) against them for his career.
— Kyle Freeland’s 13.5% strikeout rate this year ranks 70th out of 74 qualified starters, and his 6.8% swinging strike rate ranks 71st.
— Raimel Tapia has a .538 wOBA, a .500 ISO, and a 221 wRC+.
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Thanks for reading, and happy Fourth of July, everybody! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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