10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Tuesday, April 30th

Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Tuesday, April 30th.

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1. Gerrit Cole has three 10-strikeout games before the end of April; that’s something that’s only been done by two Astros pitchers ever: Wade Miller (2011) and … Gerrit Cole, just last year (he actually had 4 such games in 2018). For the most part, Cole is off to the same white-hot start he got off to in his first season with Houston, except for one start in which he allowed 8 earned runs. While you can’t entirely discount a start, it’s worth noting that his .615 BABIP of that game was the highest of any in his 165-game big-league career. Despite the surface numbers, this is largely the same guy as last year. If there’s any concern with rostering Cole on Tuesday, it’s likely matchup-based: the Twins are (somewhat surprisingy) leading MLB in team wOBA (.355) and ISO (.246). The power is scary, but it comes with decent strikeout upside, as five of the Twins projected hitters (Cron, Gonzalez, Schoop, Castro, Buxton) strike out at a 23.5 percent clip or higher against righties. With Trevor Bauer (at Marlins) and Blake Snell (at Royals) in better matchups, Cole may be third in line for cash games, but for GPPs, he’s got just as much upside as anyone on the slate.

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2. Luis Castillo may have transformed into a legitimate ace. Let’s take a look at how he’s ranked among the 78 pitchers with 50 innings pitched since September 1st of last year:

ERA – 1st (1.16)
FIP – 11th (2.99)
WHIP – 2nd (0.90)
K% – 15th (28.5%)
HR/9 – 10th (0.6)
wOBA – 2nd (.230)
GB% – 2nd (54.0%)

Plus, the dude just doesn’t allow anything to be hit hard. He’s allowed 2 barrels through 6 starts, and his 85.1 mph average exit velocity is fifth-best among pitchers with at least 80 BBEs. One notable change he’s made this year seems a bit counterintuitive: He’s stopped throwing strikes, instead making hitters chase. He’s only in the strike zone 36 percent of the time, down 8.5 percentage points from his 44.5 percent zone rate of 2018; that’s the largest decrease in MLB. The change seems to be working, and it’s why paying $10,000+ at DraftKings or FanDuel for him doesn’t seem so crazy. At Yahoo, Castillo ($50) represents a big savings off of Bauer ($61) and Snell ($57), making him a preferred option in cash games.

3. Blake Snell has lowered his hard contact rate by 12.0 percentage points; that’s the largest decrease in MLB. He’s also increased his soft contact by 10.7 percent, the largest increase in MLB. So, let’s do some math:

Cy Young Award + Less Hard Contact + More Soft Contact + Even More Strikeouts = A Guy You Should Play as Much as You Can in DFS

Snell was out of sorts in his last start, perhaps due to lingering issues with a broken toe (which he got when, in one of those moments that reminds that baseball players are real people, he dropped a decorative stand made of granite on his toe after getting out of the shower). My guess is he comes out and lights up the Royals, who have managed just a 73 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year (ranked 24th in MLB).

4. Only one qualified pitcher in MLB (Blake Snell) has allowed less contact in the zone than Julio Teheran (75.2%) this season. While Z-Contact% doesn’t necessarily mean anything this early in the year – we’re still deeply entrenched in small sample land – it can serve as an indicator of a pitcher’s “stuff” over a full season. Take a look at last year’s top 10: Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, Snell, Luis Castillo, Nola, Clevinger, Severino, Corbin. It’s certainly encouraging to see Teheran – once a pitcher with elite stuff – this high on the list. His 12.2 percent swinging strikes are just ticks below Collin McHugh (12.3%), Carlos Rodon (12.4%), Corey Kluber (12.5%), and Noah Syndergaard (12.5%). His surface numbers (5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) look bad, but that’s largely due to a .337 BABIP that is well off his career .270 mark. The Padres are not a pushover offense anymore, but they do strike out 27 percent of the time against righties (third-highest in MLB), and their 78 wRC+ ranks 24th in MLB. I wish Teheran were a bit cheaper across the industry, but I don’t mind using him in tournaments if you need the savings given his sneaky strikeout upside.

5. Tuesday’s slate features plenty of hidden stolen base upside, with four pitchers who rank in the top eight in MLB in most steals allowed since 2016. Here they are, followed by a few potential steals candidates:

Julio Teheran (64 steals allowed, 2nd-most in MLB) – Fernando Tatis (although he may not play, and if he does, he may not run, as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury), Wil Myers (64 steals since 2016…kind of surprising), Manuel Margot (29 steals since 2017)

Gerrit Cole (54 steals allowed, 6th-most in MLB) – Byron Buxton

Anibal Sanchez (52 steals allowed tied for 7th-most in MLB) – Kolten Wong (4 steals in 2019), Marcell Ozuna (3 steals in 2019), Harrison Bader (15 steals in 2018)

Cole Hamels (52 steals allowed tied for 7th-most in MLB) – Dee Gordon (8 steals in 2019), Mallex Smith (8 steals in 2019), Domingo Santana (4 steals in 2019), Mitch Haniger (3 steals in 2019)

Of course, most of these guys are only usable in tournaments (if that), but none of them should draw much ownership, and they do have upside given their opposing pitchers’ proven struggles to hold runners.

6. Since 2017, Justin Turner has a .436 wOBA against left-handed pitching; that ranks fourth in MLB behind only the mashiest of lefty mashers: Nolan Arenado (.506), J.D. Martinez (.476), and Giancarlo Stanton (.448). Turner has the platoon advantage against Giants lefty Drew Pomeranz, and while San Francisco’s Oracle Park does limit power, there’s simply no reason Turner should be as low as $3,600 at DraftKings. Even with the ballpark, and even with the Dodgers’ low implied total (3.91 runs? Really?), Turner is an easy plug-and-play in cash games if you intend to pay up at pitcher.

7. Speaking of underpriced third basemen who hit lefties well, I give you Eugenio Suarez. Since 2017, Suarez has posted a 49.8% hard-hit rate against lefties since 2017; that’s third-best in MLB and ranks ahead of guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Khris Davis, Aaron Judge, Nelson Cruz. As with Turner, the park environment hurts his upside, but he’s facing Jason Vargas, who gives up plenty of bombs. Since the start of 2018, his 1.96 HR/9 right-handed batters is fifth-highest in MLB. I love Suarez as an affordable, low-owned one-off in tournaments.

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8. Or you could throw Suarez into a mini-stack with Yasiel Puig, whose raw numbers (he’s slashing .198/.219/.363) look bad until you dig a little deeper. For the month of April, Puig has a .212 BABIP; that’s the lowest of any single month in his career dating back to 2013, and this while his 37.1 percent hard hits is well above his career average of 34.6 percent. Puig is still a player with a rare combination of power and speed. He’s got 55 homers and 32 steals since 2017, something only seven other players in MLB (Trout, Betts, Yelich, Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Baez, Story) can say. And you get all of this upside for just $3,800 at DraftKings and $3,300 at FanDuel. Along with Suarez, he’s one of the better point-per-dollar plays on the slate.

9. Yoan Moncada has chopped 10.9 percentage points off his strikeout rate in 2019; that’s the fifth-biggest improvement in MLB. He’s just making much more contact than he did last year, both in and out of the zone. It’s an encouraging sign for the young hitter, and on Tuesday, he finds himself in a matchup that should give him an even better chance of putting the ball in play multiple times. With a pitiful 14.6 percent strikeout rate, Orioles right-hander Andrew Cashner ranks 102nd of all pitchers in MLB (min. 150 IP) since 2018. Wanna guess how many pitchers made the 150-inning threshold? I’ll give you a hint: It’s more than 101, but less than 103. Moncada has preferred hitting righties over his career (117 wRC+ vs. RHPs; 70 wRC+ vs. LHPs), and he’ll take his hacks against Cashner on Tuesday. He’s a premiere tournament play.

10. There are four players who have 9 or more batted balls of 110 mph or greater this year. Three of them (Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Pete Alonso) are obvious. The fourth was a total shock to me, and maybe it will be to you, too. Avisail Garcia has recorded 9 batted balls of 110+ mph, and what’s more, he’s done it while seeing far fewer pitches than those three. Check it out:

Garcia – 9 in 178 pitches
Alonso – 9 in 438 pitches
Gallo – 10 in 343 pitches
Judge – 11 in 288 pitches

Garcia is murdering the ball, and he’s still cheap across the industry ($3,100 at FanDuel, $4,100 at DraftKings). His matchup against Jakob Junis isn’t perfect, but Junis has shown some home run vulnerability, with a 1.52 HR/9 for his career. It’s hard to envision him drawing much ownership at all, which means tonight may be a nice buying opportunity.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.