10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 1
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 1.
Week 1
1. In NFL history, here are the quarterbacks with more 300-yard games in their first 46 than Kirk Cousins: Andrew Luck and Kurt Warner. That’s it. Cousins has had his share of doubters over the years, but after throwing for 4,917 yards (third-best in the NFL, trailing only Matt Ryan and Drew Brees) en route to a QB5 season last season, Cousins has proven that, at the very least, he can rack up yardage with the best of them. While he doesn’t have the most favorable matchup in Week 1 (the Eagles ranked second in pass defense DVOA last year), and while he’s lost a few key receivers in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Cousins gained a new weapon in Terrelle Pryor, and he should benefit from a fully healthy Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed, as well. He’ll need these weapons, particularly the big-bodied Pryor and Reed, if he’s going to improve his red zone efficiency last year, when his 45.78 completion percentage inside the 20 ranked eighth out of nine QBs with at least 80 red zone attempts. Cousins is no sure thing, but he’s shown the ability to pile on yardage. There hasn’t been much buzz about him so far this week, but in a home game with a high-enough over/under of 48 points, Cousins makes for an interesting GPP play.
2. Last year, Matt Ryan had an MVP season, and while he certainly had no trouble piling on the numbers, he was also remarkably efficient, with a 7.1% touchdown rate (best in the NFL) and a 1.3% interception rate (seventh-best). Only two other QBs in history have thrown 400 attempts in a season while maintaining a 7.0%+ touchdown rate and a 1.32% interception rate or below: Tom Brady (2010) and Aaron Rodgers (2014, 2011). Of those four seasons, Ryan’s 69.85% completion rate was the highest of the group, as was his 4,944 passing yards. He was historically productive without sacrificing any efficiency, and in Week 1, he faces a middle-of-the-road Bears pass defense (17th in DVOA in 2017). Given that Ryan is priced the same as Russell Wilson and $100 below Aaron Rodgers at DraftKings, a Ryan/Julio pairing offers tons of upside at potentially lower-than-usual ownership.
3. In 2016, the Lions pass defense allowed opposing QBs to complete 72.7% of passes; that was the highest rate allowed by any team in NFL history. (And if you want a better metric than completion percentage, it should fine as no surprise that Detroit also ranked last in pass defense DVOA last year). While this certainly puts Carson Palmer in play, it’s especially interesting for Larry Fitzgerald, who should be matched up against Pro Football Focus’s 94th-ranked cornerback (out of 110 qualifiers), Quandre Diggs. Diggs got torched by slot receivers last season (7-111-1 to Eddie Royal in Week 4, 7-108 to Jamison Crowder in Week 7, and 11-104-1 to Doug Baldwin in Week 17, to name a few instances), and Fitzgerald should see plenty of volume in what projects to be a close, back-and-forth game. His touchdown equity will always be in question as long as David Johnson has two working legs, but for cash games, Fitzgerald is as reliable as they come, especially in this ideal matchup.
4. Jordy Nelson had 32 red zone targets in 2016 – nine more than second-place Odell Beckham, Jr. – and he converted them at an absurd 65.6% rate. The last time a player had 30+ red zone targets and a 60%+ conversion rate in a season? Randy Moss with the Patriots in 2007. Nelson was an absolute star when his team was deep in enemy territory last season, and it’s hard to imagine that changing this season, as Rodgers should continue to feed him the ball inside the 20. Seattle was surprisingly average against the pass last season, ranking 13th in DVOA and allowing opposing WRs to put up 36.4 DraftKings points per game, just the 14th-lowest mark in the NFL. Nelson is certainly too risky for cash games, but he’s a player with two-touchdown upside who should come at minuscule ownership.
5. Although Nelson dominated the red zone in 2016, only one player in the NFL has had 20+ red zone targets in each of the past two seasons: Brandon Marshall. With Odell Beckham, Jr. reportedly more hopeful than confident that he’ll play, with no certainty in the running game, and with somebody named Rhett Ellison slated to start at tight end, Marshall could be in line for a few red zone targets should the Giants get close. Marshall is reasonably priced across the industry, and if Beckham is indeed ruled out, he makes for an excellent one-off in tournaments given the increased likelihood of red zone looks.
6. Since 1992 (when Pro Football Reference began tracking targets), only three players have had 262 targets and 155 receptions with a 14.0+ yards per reception in their first two years in the NFL: A.J. Green, Mike Evans, and most recently, Amari Cooper. While Green had 18 TDs and Evans had 25 TDs in their first two seasons, Cooper has a more modest 11 TDs in his first two seasons. For whatever reason, Derek Carr has been hesitant to feed Cooper in the red zone, as evidenced by the fact that Cooper had just 13 red zone targets last year, tied for 40th in the NFL. That’s the same number as guys like Devin Funchess Mohammad Sanu, and it’s fewer than guys like Nelson Agholar and Jermaine Kearse. It’s hard not to think there’s some positive touchdown regression coming for Cooper, and in a high-total game against the Titans, who ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2017, Week 1 might be a good time for that regression to kick in.
7. Per Player Profiler, Robby Anderson caught six out of seven contested targets last season for an 85.7% success rate; the only players who fared better (min. 7 contested targets) were Julio Jones at 90.9% (which makes sense) and Jeremy Kerley at 87.5% (which doesn’t make sense at first, until you realize most of Kerley’s completions were on short passes). Now, it’s seven targets; if he drops one more of those passes, he’s down to 71.4%, a number not nearly as flashy. However, for a player who is going to be having to fight for some bad passes from Josh McCown (or Bryce Petty, or Christian Hackenberg, or maybe Vinny Testeverde if they can convince him to come out of retirement), it is encouraging that he’s shown that he can have success on contested passes. Anderson ranked third in the NFL with a 17.5-yard average depth of target last year, as well, and players like this at typically considered boom-or-bust tournament options. However, Anderson is priced so low around the industry, and he should see a spike in target share this year. All that means that I n Week 1, he may be worth the risk, even in cash games.
8. Last season, only David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott evaded more tackles per game than Carlos Hyde’s 5.9. This wasn’t some one-season anomaly, either – Hyde ranked ninth with six evaded tackles per game in 2015, as well. His 31.8 yards after contact per game also trailed only Bell and Jay Ajayi last year. Hyde tends to get a bad rap because of the team, but he’s set to be the bellcow back in a Kyle Shanahan offense, and he has little competition for touches. He’s a talented runner, and he’s massively underpriced in Week 1, despite the matchup against what should be stout Carolina run defense.
9. Here is the list of players with more games of 6+ receptions than Zach Ertz’s 7 since Week 6 of last year: Jordy Nelson, and Julian Edelman (Antonio Brown and Doug Baldwin also have 7 such games). As last season progressed, Ertz developed quite a rapport with rookie QB Carson Wentz, culminating in his monster 13-catch, 139-yard, 2-TD performance in Week 17 (which was literally the only time in NFL history a TE has put up that line, by the way). At just $3,500 at DraftKings, Ertz is set to be the highest-owned tight end of the week, and while you can make the case for other tight ends in tournaments, he’s a difficult fade in cash games.
10. Since 1998 (as far back as Pro Football Reference stats go for individual plays), Drew Brees leads all QBs (min. 285 deep balls) in deep ball completion percentage at 50.4% (although, to be fair, Kurt Warner, with 52.1%, had 284 attempts). For comparison, Ben Roethlisberger is at 43.2%, Tom Brady is at 42.7%, and Aaron Rodgers is at 42.1% during that span. This should be a tremendous benefit to Ted Ginn, who has never played with a QB anywhere close to as accurate as Brees. To take the comparison further, Cam Newton, Ginn’s QB last year, had a 37.2% completion rate on deep balls. Then again, when Ginn does things like this, it’s easy to make the argument that his legendary stone hands are the reason for Cam’s low completion rate. Either way, with Willie Snead suspended, Ginn figures to see plenty of volume, and he makes for a fantastic value option if you’re playing a game that includes Monday night.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!