Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, September 16th
It’s rare that we see a full night schedule on a Wednesday. In fact, I’m not sure if it’s happened since April. There are usually at least a few day games to allow teams more time to travel the next city, but all 15 are being played tonight. That leaves us with more mid-week choices than normal, but that doesn’t always mean there are many good choices. Luckily, there seems to be a few standouts today.
For those new to this column or DFS baseball in general, what we try to do here is use advanced stats to come to conclusions that casual fans may not when they look at things like Wins or even ERA, which don’t always paint the correct picture.
Sometimes we just enforce the obvious conclusion, but occasionally we discover some interesting things and find ourselves off the beaten path, which can be a good thing.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -2.1 | 3.79 | 6.36 | 1.93 | 0.91 | 3.56 | 4.03 | CHC | 93 | 97 | 84 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 20.9% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.6 | 4.19 | 4.74 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 3.63 | 4.35 | NYM | 102 | 102 | 126 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 19.8% | 13.0% | 18.1% |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -4.8 | 4.96 | 5.58 | 0.63 | 1.01 | 5.12 | 3.73 | WAS | 94 | 103 | 94 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 21.7% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.9 | 3.72 | 6.11 | 1.5 | 0.89 | 3.21 | 5.39 | COL | 76 | 61 | 36 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 21.9% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -6.9 | 3.81 | 6.24 | 1.56 | 1.09 | 4.4 | 4.52 | ARI | 97 | 95 | 115 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 1.6 | 3.78 | 6.42 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 3.57 | 4.98 | FLA | 88 | 81 | 84 | 17.0% | 4.5% | 23.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 6.2 | 3.28 | 6.14 | 1.43 | 0.94 | 3 | 3.71 | NYY | 104 | 102 | 76 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 20.9% | 12.8% | 9.0% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | -6.2 | 3.59 | 3. | 0.93 | 1.08 | 4.33 | 5.74 | CHW | 86 | 93 | 106 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 26.2% | 12.3% | 4.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.6 | 2.95 | 6.99 | 3.35 | 1.08 | 3.21 | 2.54 | TEX | 102 | 88 | 98 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.4 | 4.85 | 4.8 | 0.81 | 1.05 | 4.73 | MIN | 105 | 99 | 123 | ||||||
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 7.7 | 4.55 | 5.56 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 4.31 | 3.28 | CLE | 110 | 100 | 134 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 21.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.1 | 3.3 | 5.88 | 1.03 | 0.94 | 3.43 | 5.4 | KAN | 92 | 102 | 96 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 20.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% |
| David Price | TOR | -1.7 | 3.01 | 7.12 | 1.12 | 0.98 | 3.1 | 3.08 | ATL | 88 | 78 | 105 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 23.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | -6.3 | 4.72 | 5.22 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 4.61 | 4.96 | OAK | 93 | 97 | 104 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 21.9% | 14.2% | 9.4% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.8 | 3.91 | 6.3 | 1.21 | 1.05 | 3.77 | 3.05 | DET | 103 | 101 | 100 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 21.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.4 | 3.69 | 5.79 | 1.55 | 1.01 | 3.71 | 3.85 | PHI | 86 | 90 | 60 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | -1 | 4.77 | 5.14 | 0.57 | 1.04 | 5.76 | 6.58 | BAL | 108 | 87 | 138 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 19.7% | 13.0% | 13.6% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -3.9 | 3.14 | 6.46 | 1.74 | 0.85 | 3.07 | 3.93 | ANA | 88 | 98 | 75 | 19.2% | 4.8% | 18.4% | 13.0% | 8.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -0.8 | 3.25 | 6.43 | 2.71 | 1.07 | 3.65 | 3.86 | MIL | 89 | 82 | 71 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 20.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.3 | 2.93 | 6.58 | 2.01 | 0.91 | 2.58 | 2.61 | PIT | 104 | 99 | 91 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 22.1% | 9.4% | 5.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.5 | 4.19 | 6.17 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 4.51 | 4.72 | CIN | 85 | 91 | 97 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 2.4 | 4.45 | 6.28 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 5.3 | 4.62 | SEA | 104 | 99 | 114 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 17.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -4.3 | 4.09 | 5.7 | 1.76 | 0.89 | 4 | 3.24 | LOS | 113 | 110 | 107 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 24.3% | 12.5% | 9.6% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -5.6 | 4.03 | 5.31 | 1.34 | 0.94 | 3.6 | 4.85 | TAM | 99 | 95 | 109 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 13.1% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5 | 4.11 | 5.91 | 2.38 | 1.08 | 3.6 | 4.82 | HOU | 93 | 104 | 119 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 19.0% | 14.6% | 6.4% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 1.9 | 5.1 | 5.11 | 1.28 | 0.87 | 5.36 | 4.11 | SFO | 114 | 108 | 138 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 25.0% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.5 | 4.96 | 4.78 | 0.94 | 1.04 | 4.72 | 5.25 | BOS | 85 | 97 | 110 | 17.2% | 7.4% | 20.7% | 13.3% | 7.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.3 | 4.28 | 5.29 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 4.53 | 4.48 | SDG | 82 | 89 | 85 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 22.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -0.7 | 4.37 | 6.05 | 1.17 | 0.98 | 4.16 | 4.49 | TOR | 105 | 112 | 120 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 20.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -5.1 | 4.06 | 5.95 | 1.86 | 1.07 | 3.58 | 6.42 | STL | 92 | 100 | 87 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 22.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% |
IMPORTANT NOTE – Today’s article is going to be a little different as I’m working without pitcher salaries due to technical issues. We’re just going to be talking about overall pitcher talent without regard to value.
A.J. Burnett wasn’t very good in his return from the DL after a little over a month and his velocity looked to be slightly down, but not much. There’s some concern about his current health with the possibility that’s he’s forcing himself back due to the team’s current position in the standings, but he has an average-ish 13.3 K-BB% on the season and faces the offense with perhaps the highest strikeout tendency tonight (24.9% on the road, 24.1% vs RHP, 27.4% over the last week), so you’d see why we’d want to consider him if the price is right and he’s healthy. It’s a great park adjusted matchup in a good park in Pittsburgh.
Alex Wood was pounded in his last start and really struggled as a Dodger with a total of five walks and strikeouts each over his last two starts. There is some hope in his SwStr% for the last month, but even more hope in the opposition. The Dodgers have thrown three straight lefties against the Rockies who are the worst offense on the road (18.3 K-BB%) and vs LHP (23.3 K%). They are also the coldest offense in the majors (27.4 K%, -9.3 Hard-Soft%). It is by far the top park adjusted matchup tonight and really anyone who throws left-handed has to be considered against them on the road.
Bartolo Colon set some kind of record in his last start for and old guy not giving up runs before he finally gave up two, his first two in four starts. After striking out 17 in the first two of those starts though, he’s struck out two each in the last two. His 14.4 K-BB% is the same as last year and above average with a 17.4 K-BB% at home as a Met. He faces a below average road offense and the worst vs RHP. They have just a 2.4 HR/FB over the last week and are the second best park-adjusted matchup tonight.
Chris Archer has allowed at least three ERs in 6.1 innings or less in four of his last six starts, but has sandwiched in two shutout performances as well over 15 innings. The good news is that his amazing K% has remained above 30% over the last month, retaining a 23.9 K-BB% for the season. He faces and above average Yankees offense both on the road and vs RHP, but in a favorable park. They’ve struggled recently and adjust down to a good matchup.
Dallas Keuchel generates weak ground balls like few others (62.0 GB%, -3.9 Hard-Soft%), but an above average K% separates him even further and he’s struck out over 30% of opposing over the last month. This year, two-thirds of the batters he’s faced have resulted in a ground ball or strikeout. It’s even higher vs LHBs. The Rangers are a below average offense vs LHP (22.0 K%), but average at home in an offensive friendly park, making this a fairly neutral matchup after adjustment.
David Price stunningly went just five innings his last time out for the first time since mid-June, but still managed to strikeout seven of 22 Yankees faces, while only allowing two runs. He’s struck out at least seven in 11 of his last 13 with a 19.8 K-BB% for the season and 20.8 K-BB% on the road since last season.
Ervin Santana has three straight starts with at least seven innings and two ERs or fewer, striking out 27 of his last 85 batters. He’s had a poor season with just a 10.4 K-BB%, but may finally be on track now. Detroit is one of the better road offenses in baseball though, and don’t represent a favorable matchup here.
Hisashi Iwakuma has occasionally struggled since his no-hitter, allowing four HRs and not exceeding six strikeouts over five starts. The HR ball is something that not even Safeco’s been able to save him from, but it was perhaps more stunning when he walked four a couple of starts back (20% of his total for the season), but he’s since corrected that, which is important because with a league average K% and too high HR rate, he can’t be giving up free passes. A big part of the reason he’s had some success is a 2.6 BB% at home since last season. The Angels are a poor road offense with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They adjust downwards into a great matchup in a great park.
Jake Arrieta has allowed an ER in just two of his last eight starts and a total of three. He’s struck out at least seven in each of his last five and gone at least eight innings in each of his last three. He now has a 20.6 K-BB% and 1.2 Hard-Soft% for the season. He has a 21.0 K-BB% and 6.5 HR/FB on the road since last season, while getting a pitcher friendly park tonight. The Pirates are about an average offense at home vs RHP, park adjusting down to a favorable matchup in this instance. The Atlanta offense is awful, with a league average strikeout rate (20.4%) vs LHP and just an 8.0 HR/FB at home. They have a 5.0 Hard-Soft% overall and are a great park adjusted matchup.
Gio Gonzalez has allowed a total of one ER over his last two starts, but with seven walks and no more than six innings in either. His GB% continues to be down, while his K% is up over the last month and that’s probably the route he wants to continue to go considering the lack of success his new pitch to ground ball contact gave him this year. Most encouraging is a matchup with the Phillies. They are the 2nd worst home offense, below average vs LHP (8.2 HR/FB, 0.9 Hard-Soft%), and a 28.3 K% over the last week, making them a great park adjusted matchup.
Jaime Garcia doesn’t have enough innings to qualify, but he’s right there among that group of elite ground ball pitchers (only one of four with a ground ball rate over 60%), along with a 5.2 Hard-Soft%. His K-BB is just an average 12.3%, but a 62.5 GB% is how you begin to compensate for something like that and provide value. He has greatly struggled in two of his last three starts, but sandwiched a dominant one against Pittsburgh in between. He faces a poor Milwaukee offense both at home and vs LHP with a 26.1 K% and -1.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. It’s a tough park, but still a favorable matchup after an upward adjustment. You can’t hit it out of the park if you can’t elevate. One giant red flag though, would be a significant drop in velocity in his last start.
Jake Peavy would really help to have some salaries for because he hasn’t pitched well at all and has a low K%, but finds himself in a very good spot against a poor road offense in a great home park. A very low price would make him useable to pair with a top pitcher, realizing the capped ceiling of course.
Jorge de la Rosa has allowed three ERs or less with either six or seven strikeouts in five of his last six starts, going less than six innings only in his last start. We can’t say he’s been good on the road though, with just an average K-BB% and a still elevated 13.1 HR/FB even away from Colorado. A below average price tag might make him useable as the Dodgers are a tough offense, but adjust down to neutral with a negative park adjustment for run environment. Even an average price puts me off him though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Luis Severino (.283 BABIP – 84.9 LOB% – 17.1 HR/FB) – The Blue Jays tapped him for 2 HRs in just 16 batters faced in his last start and that shot his HR/FB up, but we’ve been expecting some regression as his BABIP was a little too low in his last start as well. An average 13.0 K-BB% and great -2.9 Hard-Soft% would make him useable at a reduced price though, but the strand rate is still too high.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
NOTE – Alphabetically today due to no salaries.
Adam Conley has a league average K% and a 3.1 Hard-Soft%, but also some control issues and has only gone more than five innings in one of seven starts. He has a tough matchup against the Mets.
Alec Asher seems to be starting in place of the originally designated pitcher, Adam Morgan, for the Phillies. Neither would hold any interest.
Andrew Cashner has struggles and has a poor matchup. His rise in K% over the last month isn’t real according to his SwStr%.
Cody Martin
Daniel Norris hasn’t pitched in the majors in nearly a month and faces a tough team at home.
Danny Duffy has struck out 15 of his last 49 batters, which is encouraging, but he hasn’t been going very deep into games and has an unfavorable matchup.
Danny Salazar is perhaps the most surprising name down here, but I’m going to assume he’s highly priced, while he’s seen some decline over the last month. Some of that is BABIP and HR related, but he has allowed harder contact and his K% is down, while he faces the hardest team to fan in baseball.
Erik Johnson has allowed four runs in 11 innings, which isn’t too bad, but walked five in his last start after three HRs in his first.
Henry Owens – The SwStr% over the last month is encouraging, but useless with a double digit walk rate.
Martin Perez has a 61.6 GB% with a 2.7 Hard-Soft% in just 54.2 innings so far. He would be a 5th in the 60% GB club if he can sustain this. It helps to keep the Astros grounded, but his 13.4 K% would be unusable at all, but a near minimum price.
Robbie Ray pitches in a tough park and has a 22.4 Hard-Soft% this year to go along with a 14.2 BB% over the last month.
Shelby Miller has seen his ERA catch up to his underlying numbers over the last month and gets the Blue Jays tonight.
Wily Peralta has struck out three or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.6% | 8.7% | Home | 21.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 20.4% | 9.1% | Road | 22.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 13.9% | 5.2% | Home | 14.7% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 20.9% | 7.2% | Home | 25.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.7% | 6.7% | Road | 16.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 11.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.2% | 3.3% | Home | 20.3% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.8% | 7.7% | Home | 27.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 22.0% | 7.3% | Road | 19.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 21.0% | 5.9% | Road | 18.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 7.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 17.0% | 9.8% | Road | 18.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 17.4% | 8.9% | Road | 18.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 10.2% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 26.0% | 7.0% | Home | 26.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.6% | 4.4% | Road | 25.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 10.2% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 17.3% | 10.8% | Home | 27.1% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 20.2% | 7.6% | Home | 21.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.8% | 6.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.7% | 8.6% | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 15.2% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 20.1% | 10.7% | Road | 19.7% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 16.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 21.4% | 3.7% | Home | 20.5% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 3.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 19.6% | 5.5% | Road | 16.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 26.3% | 6.3% | Road | 27.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 3.4% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.3% | 7.0% | Home | 16.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 2.2% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 16.6% | 6.2% | Road | 12.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.5% | 9.6% | Road | 18.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 23.6% | 10.6% | Road | 21.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 13.6% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 15.7% | 8.4% | Home | 16.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 16.0% | 11.6% | Road | 14.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 14.2% | 8.0% | Home | 13.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 8.8% | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.3% | 9.0% | Home | 18.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 16.7% | 7.5% | Home | 18.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 12.5% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 24.9% | 8.4% | RH | 24.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Home | 20.0% | 8.5% | LH | 23.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.5% | 12.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.4% | 8.5% | LH | 21.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 6.0% | LH | 23.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.3% | 8.1% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | RH | 19.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.7% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 7.1% | RH | 20.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.4% | 8.3% | LH | 22.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.2% |
| Twins | Home | 19.0% | 7.0% | LH | 20.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.0% | 11.2% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.5% | LH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.4% |
| Royals | Road | 16.6% | 5.5% | RH | 15.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 5.9% |
| Braves | Home | 18.2% | 8.7% | LH | 20.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.3% | 7.8% | RH | 18.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.6% | 6.6% | LH | 21.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.1% | 7.1% | LH | 23.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 11.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.1% | 4.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.9% | 7.7% | LH | 21.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 8.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.8% | 7.5% | RH | 20.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 7.5% | RH | 19.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.1% | 8.2% | RH | 21.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 11.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.5% | LH | 21.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.8% |
| Astros | Road | 22.2% | 7.5% | LH | 21.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.7% |
| Giants | Home | 18.2% | 7.7% | RH | 18.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 12.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 7.7% | RH | 17.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.7% |
| Padres | Road | 21.5% | 7.0% | LH | 23.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.2% | 8.4% | RH | 19.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 7.9% | RH | 19.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 26.4% | 11.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.8% | 10.2% | 6.8% | Home | 21.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 20.3% | 12.8% | 23.4% | Road | 27.8% | 18.8% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 19.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% | Home | 23.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | Home | 21.6% | 13.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 21.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | Road | 20.7% | 11.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | Home | 20.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 28.8% | 14.8% | 3.7% | Road | 24.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | Road | 18.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 18.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | Road | 18.7% | 12.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 22.0% | 7.7% | 15.3% | Road | 20.6% | 9.6% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 20.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% | Home | 21.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 21.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | Road | 21.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 21.6% | 12.7% | 7.9% | Home | 31.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 23.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | Home | 22.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 19.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | Road | 17.7% | 7.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 17.8% | 10.7% | 14.3% | Road | 16.3% | 0.0% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.0% | 14.1% | 8.6% | Home | 18.9% | 16.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 17.4% | 10.5% | 4.2% | Road | 18.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | Road | 24.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | Home | 20.5% | 6.7% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | Road | 19.3% | 11.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.3% | 13.6% | 7.4% | Road | 19.1% | 13.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 21.9% | 17.1% | 17.1% | Road | 34.0% | 9.1% | 27.3% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 19.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | Home | 23.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 27.2% | 15.7% | 6.5% | Road | 28.9% | 16.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 19.8% | 13.0% | 9.3% | Home | 19.2% | 14.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | Home | 22.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | Home | 20.0% | 5.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | 19.3% | 12.9% | 8.5% | Home | 20.0% | 16.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 20.6% | 11.0% | 7.7% | RH | 20.0% | 13.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.0% | 12.2% | LH | 21.6% | 13.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 13.5% | 9.0% | LH | 20.4% | 14.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 17.6% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 19.9% | 12.3% | 11.0% | LH | 21.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 11.7% | 21.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | RH | 21.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.6% | 11.3% | 8.2% | RH | 20.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 2.4% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.3% | 12.4% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 13.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 11.5% | 9.4% | RH | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | LH | 18.9% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.9% | 12.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | LH | 19.7% | 12.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Indians | Home | 23.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | LH | 23.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.1% | 14.3% |
| Royals | Road | 22.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | RH | 21.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| Braves | Home | 21.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | LH | 20.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | RH | 20.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 14.5% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 11.1% | 7.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | LH | 22.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 16.4% | 8.2% | LH | 21.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 23.6% | 14.5% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 10.4% | 8.4% | RH | 20.2% | 11.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.7% | 11.4% | 7.5% | LH | 18.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.9% | 11.3% | 5.5% | RH | 21.4% | 10.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 14.9% | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 12.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.0% | 12.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 15.7% | 17.7% | 8.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 13.0% | 8.9% | LH | 22.7% | 11.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | RH | 21.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 14.3% | 12.7% | 15.5% |
| Astros | Road | 21.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | LH | 19.6% | 13.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.2% | 13.7% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Home | 20.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | RH | 21.3% | 10.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 9.7% | 11.3% | RH | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Padres | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | LH | 21.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.5% | 14.0% | 13.6% | RH | 19.6% | 15.0% | 12.6% | L7Days | 23.3% | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | RH | 22.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.3% | 16.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.29 | 15.8% | 12.5% | 1.26 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 20.4% | 8.5% | 2.40 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 2.70 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 13.9% | 9.8% | 1.42 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 1.71 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 17.6% | 8.2% | 2.15 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 1.64 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 20.1% | 7.9% | 2.54 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 3.43 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.4% | 6.5% | 2.68 | 16.9% | 7.0% | 2.41 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.5% | 13.5% | 2.26 | 31.6% | 13.6% | 2.32 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.00 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.33 | 30.4% | 13.0% | 2.34 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 17.5% | 9.7% | 1.80 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 1.71 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 16.1% | 7.7% | 2.09 | 24.0% | 11.6% | 2.07 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 26.7% | 11.8% | 2.26 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.07 |
| David Price | TOR | 25.0% | 11.7% | 2.14 | 31.3% | 14.1% | 2.22 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 2.69 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.24 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 2.18 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 20.1% | 10.8% | 1.86 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 1.69 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 20.2% | 10.4% | 1.94 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.86 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.5% | 8.3% | 2.23 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 1.96 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.6% | 10.6% | 2.51 | 30.4% | 12.5% | 2.43 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.25 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 2.01 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.2% | 8.4% | 1.57 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 1.69 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.4% | 11.8% | 1.81 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 1.80 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.57 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 2.61 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.4% | 7.1% | 1.89 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 1.81 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 16.0% | 8.5% | 1.88 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.94 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 14.2% | 7.6% | 1.87 | 14.3% | 10.8% | 1.32 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.13 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.6% | 9.3% | 2.22 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.38 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 13.0% | 6.9% | 1.88 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 2.08 |
A.J. Burnett – The SwStr% in his return start was encouraging.
Alex Wood has actually seen his SwStr% rise over the last month as his K% has dropped.
David Price has seen already strong SwStr and K rates sky rocket over the last month.
Ervin Santana has seen his K% increase by nearly 50% over the last month without a change in SwStr%. Interestingly, the chart doesn’t throw up a red flag because he was just on the borderline of being too low for his SwStr for the season, but on the opposite edge over the last month. Kurt Suzuki is one of the worst framing catchers in baseball, but Santana does have a double digit SwStr% in each of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 3.14 | 3.65 | 0.51 | 3.56 | 0.42 | 3.22 | 0.08 | 5.4 | 4.03 | -1.37 | 3.73 | -1.67 | 5.75 | 0.35 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.93 | 4.18 | -0.75 | 4.34 | -0.59 | 4.55 | -0.38 | 4.88 | 3.81 | -1.07 | 3.82 | -1.06 | 3.98 | -0.9 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.6 | 4.96 | 0.36 | 5.18 | 0.58 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 5.46 | 4.26 | -1.2 | 4.45 | -1.01 | 4.93 | -0.53 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.81 | 4.29 | 0.48 | 4.04 | 0.23 | 3.78 | -0.03 | 4.15 | 4.8 | 0.65 | 4.47 | 0.32 | 4.84 | 0.69 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.27 | 4.02 | -0.25 | 3.88 | -0.39 | 3.93 | -0.34 | 4.61 | 3.94 | -0.67 | 3.62 | -0.99 | 3.66 | -0.95 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.13 | 3.95 | -0.18 | 3.9 | -0.23 | 3.75 | -0.38 | 2.29 | 3.9 | 1.61 | 3.71 | 1.42 | 3.48 | 1.19 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.95 | 2.82 | -0.13 | 2.77 | -0.18 | 2.68 | -0.27 | 3.06 | 2.84 | -0.22 | 2.84 | -0.22 | 2.68 | -0.38 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 6.57 | 3.59 | -2.98 | 4.02 | -2.55 | 4.52 | -2.05 | 15 | 5.74 | -9.26 | 6.12 | -8.88 | 5.15 | -9.85 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.22 | 2.81 | 0.59 | 2.7 | 0.48 | 2.79 | 0.57 | 1.54 | 2.46 | 0.92 | 2.41 | 0.87 | 2.8 | 1.26 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.43 | 4.69 | 0.26 | 4.97 | 0.54 | 4.94 | 0.51 | 6.23 | 2.54 | -3.69 | 2.42 | -3.81 | 7.07 | 0.84 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.14 | 4.83 | 0.69 | 4.79 | 0.65 | 4.59 | 0.45 | 4.55 | 3.81 | -0.74 | 3.73 | -0.82 | 4.23 | -0.32 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.57 | 3.28 | -0.29 | 3.35 | -0.22 | 3.7 | 0.13 | 5.02 | 3.68 | -1.34 | 3.67 | -1.35 | 4.3 | -0.72 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.46 | 3.3 | 0.84 | 3.28 | 0.82 | 2.83 | 0.37 | 2.73 | 2.64 | -0.09 | 2.5 | -0.23 | 2.18 | -0.55 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 3.27 | 4.96 | 1.69 | 5.14 | 1.87 | 7.6 | 4.33 | 3.27 | 4.96 | 1.69 | 5.14 | 1.87 | 7.6 | 4.33 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.73 | 4.42 | -0.31 | 4.54 | -0.19 | 4.67 | -0.06 | 3.34 | 3.3 | -0.04 | 3.52 | 0.18 | 3.27 | -0.07 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.88 | 3.87 | -0.01 | 3.69 | -0.19 | 3.15 | -0.73 | 4 | 4.02 | 0.02 | 3.97 | -0.03 | 3.4 | -0.6 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 5.25 | 4.77 | -0.48 | 5.24 | -0.01 | 5.12 | -0.13 | 5.88 | 4.49 | -1.39 | 5.04 | -0.84 | 5.84 | -0.04 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.05 | 3.59 | -0.46 | 3.52 | -0.53 | 4.17 | 0.12 | 4.5 | 3.96 | -0.54 | 3.85 | -0.65 | 4.01 | -0.49 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 2.33 | 3.41 | 1.08 | 3.4 | 1.07 | 3.01 | 0.68 | 4.2 | 3.84 | -0.36 | 3.88 | -0.32 | 2.51 | -1.69 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.99 | 2.91 | 0.92 | 2.74 | 0.75 | 2.52 | 0.53 | 0.24 | 1.98 | 1.74 | 1.85 | 1.61 | 1.69 | 1.45 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.15 | 4.43 | 0.28 | 4.56 | 0.41 | 4.21 | 0.06 | 4.11 | 4.51 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 0.59 | 4.61 | 0.5 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.71 | 4.85 | 0.14 | 5.05 | 0.34 | 4.72 | 0.01 | 5.1 | 5.14 | 0.04 | 5.65 | 0.55 | 4.65 | -0.45 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.28 | 4.15 | -0.13 | 3.88 | -0.4 | 4.22 | -0.06 | 2.61 | 4.15 | 1.54 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 3.98 | 1.37 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.35 | 4.03 | 0.68 | 3.93 | 0.58 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 3.71 | 4.36 | 0.65 | 4.15 | 0.44 | 5.21 | 1.5 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.43 | 4.1 | -1.33 | 4.09 | -1.34 | 3.79 | -1.64 | 5.64 | 4.4 | -1.24 | 4.2 | -1.44 | 4.89 | -0.75 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 5.45 | 5.1 | -0.35 | 4.95 | -0.5 | 5.54 | 0.09 | 5.4 | 3.81 | -1.59 | 3.62 | -1.78 | 4.08 | -1.32 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.45 | 4.96 | -0.49 | 5.32 | -0.13 | 5.62 | 0.17 | 7 | 5.25 | -1.75 | 5.76 | -1.24 | 7.48 | 0.48 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.54 | 4.14 | 0.6 | 4.19 | 0.65 | 3.53 | -0.01 | 4.38 | 4.5 | 0.12 | 4.54 | 0.16 | 4.12 | -0.26 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 2.86 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 3.94 | 1.08 | 3.34 | 0.48 | 4.34 | 3.9 | -0.44 | 3.89 | -0.45 | 3.44 | -0.9 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.14 | 4.6 | 0.46 | 4.43 | 0.29 | 4.48 | 0.34 | 4.37 | 4.9 | 0.53 | 4.66 | 0.29 | 4.07 | -0.3 |
Bartolo Colon has had a good month, but his estimators are pretty much the same with the difference being an 87.3 LOB%.
Dallas Keuchel has had an excellent month but has stranded 87.1% of his runners. A 30.4 K% will buy you a little leeway, but that may be too much.
David Price – A 7.9 HR/FB is his lowest since 2010 and that was pitching in a power suppressing park in Tampa Bay. He probably doesn’t have too many starts left in Toronto (unless he chooses to stay), but that’s a number we should probably expect to rise in an unfavorable setting. Atlanta is not such a place tonight though.
Jake Arrieta has been amazing. Let’s get that out the way first. The Orioles are weeping when considering this trade. Even though he has an elite K-BB% which has even risen to 23.8% over the last month, there are still some unsustainable things in his profile. He’s going to give up a few runs eventually because his .254 BABIP (.202 over the last month) is a little too low and his 79.4 LOB% (87.8% over the last month) is a little too high. But look, the estimators under two over the last month? That’s Kershaw territory.
Jorge de la Rosa has an 87.9 LOB% over the last month. His K% is up, but so is his BB rate (10.6%).
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.302 | 0.333 | 0.031 | 9.7% | 91.4% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.293 | 0.341 | 0.048 | 23.4% | 85.9% |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.318 | 0.273 | -0.045 | 10.9% | 86.8% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.298 | 0.327 | 0.029 | 9.0% | 89.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.300 | 0.327 | 0.027 | 8.5% | 89.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.287 | 0.310 | 0.023 | 7.5% | 89.4% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.283 | 0.291 | 0.008 | 7.4% | 83.6% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 0.287 | 0.366 | 0.079 | 3.7% | 89.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.282 | 0.265 | -0.017 | 13.6% | 89.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.304 | 0.291 | -0.013 | 12.7% | 87.8% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.285 | 0.295 | 0.01 | 17.0% | 86.5% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.291 | 0.279 | -0.012 | 5.8% | 82.6% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.282 | 0.292 | 0.01 | 10.8% | 81.8% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 0.313 | 0.185 | -0.128 | 5.9% | 79.0% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.300 | 0.299 | -0.001 | 14.1% | 87.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.304 | 0.341 | 0.037 | 2.5% | 87.1% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.306 | 0.294 | -0.012 | 14.3% | 80.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.294 | 0.264 | -0.03 | 8.3% | 90.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.296 | 0.254 | -0.042 | 4.8% | 90.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.294 | 0.254 | -0.04 | 8.4% | 86.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.283 | 0.268 | -0.015 | 9.3% | 91.4% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.286 | 0.272 | -0.014 | 13.9% | 84.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.315 | 0.293 | -0.022 | 4.6% | 87.1% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.301 | 0.283 | -0.018 | 17.1% | 86.1% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.293 | 0.332 | 0.039 | 7.9% | 91.4% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.290 | 0.320 | 0.03 | 6.5% | 87.0% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.295 | 0.280 | -0.015 | 9.3% | 88.4% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.296 | 0.306 | 0.01 | 5.5% | 87.2% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.309 | 0.283 | -0.026 | 8.1% | 87.3% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.302 | 0.317 | 0.015 | 7.4% | 92.3% |
Alex Wood acquired his BABIP mostly with Atlanta, who allow a .309 BABIP, but also doesn’t have the best indicators, including a 23.8 LD%, so I don’t know how much of this we can blame on the defense.
Gio Gonzalez – As we’ve mentioned many times, it does not do a pitcher any good to replace strikeouts with ground balls if one’s defense is unable to efficiently turn them into outs. He’s gotten just three pop ups all year.
Hisashi Iwakuma has a BABIP that would seem a little too low for his indicators, but has never generated a lot of pop ups, had even average zone contact numbers, or even generated a lot of weak contact and has a career .270 BABIP, so it’s interesting. Although, I wonder if Seattle has allowed lower BABIPs as a team in the past, which would lead us to believe this number is a bit too low.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
I can’t give you value rankings tonight, but I will rank my top few overall pitchers with regards to their situations tonight.
1 – Jake Arrieta has been incredible and pitches in a favorable park tonight. He separates himself from the pack.
2 – David Price has been pitching great and separates himself from those below him a bit too. He has a great matchup in Atlanta tonight.
3 – Chris Archer has had some issues lately but has also retained his elite strikeout rate through them. Facing the Yankees in Tampa is a lot better than facing them in New York.
4 – Hisashi Iwakuma has some caution flags in his profile with contact and control slightly declining, but should be able to mask most of that in a great home matchup tonight.
5 – Dallas Keuchel is great but has a less friendly matchup than those above him.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.