Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 29th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-30 02:02:36

Two highly rated pitching prospects make their major league debuts on Friday. Normally, this would be a cause for great enthusiasm for a baseball fan and daily fantasy writer such as myself, but on a full night slate, I’m concerned I won’t have the time to fully give them their due. In all, that makes three highly regarded young pitchers to be introduced to major league hitters over the last three days. An abundance of young pitching talent currently in the majors seems to be throwing harder and harder each year. It’ll be exciting to follow their development this year.

Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Aaron Sanchez had his first particularly poor outing last time out against Oakland, allowing six runs and striking out just three of the 25 batters he faced. It was the first time he failed to go at least six innings or that he allowed more than one ER. The bad news is that his SwSTr% hasn’t exceed 6.5 since his first start, nor 5.0 in his last two. It seems be the Toronto pitching philosophy with young talent to emphasize the ground ball over the strikeout or at least that’s the trend anyway. A 95 mph sinker has been his main offering and it certainly does what it’s intended to do (61.2 career GB%, 0.9 Hard-Soft%), though we have to question, as daily fantasy players, how much it cuts into his potential upside. The hope is maybe less so today against a Tampa Bay offense with a 28.1 K% vs RHP.

Adam Conley has had outings ranging from good to bad to marginal after his first one was cut short after just one inning due to rain. His last against the Giants (5.2 IP – 4 ER – 4 BB – 2 BB) was definitely the worst of the bunch, but he’d previously struck out 17 of the last 50 batters he’d faced. Perhaps this type of inconsistency is why he’s a 25 year old rookie despite showing flashes of potential at the major league level. Missing bats is not the problem. Occasional wild streaks and a fly ball profile who occasionally fails when challenging hitters might be (three HRs in 19.1 IP). The Brewers have shown some power (19.8 HR/FB at home, 15.6 HR/FB, 18.0 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) and some patience (16.0 BB% vs LHP), but strike out the 2nd most often in baseball (26.1%) and equally against pitchers from either side.

Corey Kluber threw his first dominant start against Detroit and even previously struck out eight Mets despite struggling. He’s now struck out 18 of his last 54 batters and might be ready to roll. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in all four starts and the top overall rate on today’s slate along with the top strikeout rate (28.1%) over the last two years. A 22.0 K-BB% is remarkably in line with each of the last two seasons. He also gets to take the mound against the Phillies and that doesn’t hurt either.

Drew Smyly has been lights out since his first start against these Blue Jays where he allowed three HRs at home. He’s gone at least seven innings in each, allowing a total of three runs, striking 28 of 79 batters. He’s struck out 31.3% of hitters at home since last year and is the only pitcher on today’s board to eclipse a 30 K% this season. The Blue Jays have shown themselves vulnerable against good LHP this season. In fact, they’ve faced so many that they’ve been below average against them, striking out 25.6% of the time with a 13.2 HR/FB that is less than you’d expect from them. This is a bit of a blueprint of what Smyly can be against them. The Trop has played more neutral recently, as most parks have, but still has an 87 park factor for RH HRs.

Juan Nicasio has not matched his spring hype past his first start. He’s walked 11 and struck out 14 of 65 batters since in 14 innings over three starts. LHBs (35 of them) are still thumping him for a .379 BABIP. However, he’s at home against a very poor offense that has struck out in over a quarter of their PAs the last seven days with just one, possibly two, legitimate LH bats and he’s doing so in one of the better parks in the league, where he’s had his two best starts this year.

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed exactly two ERs in each of his four starts and has only allowed two HRs this season. The short porch at Yankee Stadium has been his biggest issue, but his GB% is up by 10 points to 56.7% this year and he pitches in one of the toughest parks on LH power in the majors tonight, albeit against a very tough offense (2nd best wRC+ vs RHP). He’s been beyond any hope one would have of a pitcher with a torn elbow ligament and is doing his best to eradicate Tommy John surgery and put Dr. Andrews out of business.

Michael Fulmer was the haul for Cespedes. The question has always been more one of health than talent. If he remains healthy, the Tigers may greatly benefit from this trade, but it’s one the Mets could afford to make due their depth of pitching talent as he might not even make their staff when everyone’s healthy. He’s struck out 20 of 69 AAA batters this year and has had a well above average K% with decent control throughout the minors. Here’s a link to his fangraphs write up as the top ranked prospect in the Detroit system, though I’m a little surprised at their future projection of him as a Closer, although he has yet to complete six innings this season. Minnesota seems like a perfectly neutral matchup.

Mike Fiers is generally not my favorite pitcher, but if I were to consider him, Oakland would be the perfect park. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, who allows frequent hard contact (0.87 GB/FB, 31.7 Hard% career) and I never fully bought into his high K% with an average SwStr%, although with a strong framing catcher in Jason Castro, I see the upside for something in the low 20s. In three starts at home and one in NY (AL), he’s allowed six HRs in power friendly parks. Oakland has a 6.7 HR/FB at home and he has a 12.1 career IFFB%, which are two primary reasons I believe he can be more successful in this spot.

Mike Leake has been terrible under his new contract and while the ERA estimators suggest much better, I’m having a difficult time even believing that and you’ll see why later. The contact has been less on the ground, but instead of going into his fly ball rate, it’s found its way to a 35.1 LD% that nearly matches his 37.7 Hard%. HRs have been slightly less of a problem in St Louis as expected and even with a still double digit HR/FB, a his high ground ball rate could pull him under 20 HRs this season for the first time in a full season. The real reason he remains a consideration tonight is because all of the RH Nationals are below average bats vs RHP and there’s usually six of them in the lineup not counting the pitcher.

Sean Manaea profiles as a middle of the rotation arm as the top pitching prospect in the Oakland system and 4th overall according to fangraphs with some flaws and inconsistencies beside average command. While he struggled with walks last year both before and after the trade from the Royals in his first taste of high minors action, it and even more so his K% have been exceptional in 18 innings so far this year. In fact, he has struck out at least 27% at every stop of every level of the minor leagues. Houston strikes out a ton, but also walks and hits for a lot of power from the right side, although the park should help him.

Stephen Strasburg has struck out 20 of his last 57 batters and pitched into the 8th inning in each of his last three starts, including 114 pitches in his last start. I’d consider that they might be more careful with him tonight, but Dusty Baker and impending free agency. Something to consider is that three of his opponents have been Miami and Atlanta twice and he steps way up in class in St Louis tonight. Slightly surprising among all of their other offensive accomplishments this season is the fact that the Cardinals are parking the ball in the seats more than expected in a tough park for RH power (15.1 HR/FB at home, 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP).

Steven Matz has had tighter and more consistent mechanics while dominating his last two starts, albeit the last one against the Braves. The issue has been that he occasionally seems to lose it and start hanging pitches when things don’t go his way, which is what happened in his first start. He’d be a front of the rotation pitching prospect for just about any other team and is still the Mets top prospect coming into the season. That said, the Giants are a very difficult offense and the hottest one in baseball over the last week (0.0 K-BB%, though just a 5.5 HR/FB). They have a 14.6 HR/FB on the road, but -1.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP so far.

Tyler Chatwood has allowed one ER over 13.1 IP, striking out 10 of 52 batters with just one walk in two road starts this season. To make this look even better, consider his two road starts were in Arizona and Chicago (NL). He’s absolutely not in a good spot tonight against an offense that punishes the baseball at home (22.0 HR/FB, 17.5 Hard-Soft%), but may still be an under-valued pitcher, at least on one site.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Hector Santiago (.197 BABIP – 82.5 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB) has looked better this season and I’m beginning to buy into his ability to miss bats with a two mph increase in velocity. I can’t buy into a BABIP 70 points below his career rate and he’s still allowing frequent hard contact on fly balls. He pitches in a less favorable park than the one he calls home today and I still have great difficulty paying $8.6K for him on FanDuel in this spot, but feel more neutral towards his $1.3K lower DK price.

Felix Hernandez (.188 BABIP – 84.6 LOB% – 12.5 HR/FB) does not look to be struggling, but we linked to an article that voiced our concerns, yet remained on his side on a short slate in a good spot against the Angels that day. His results were merely mediocre with the one thing we were still content with, his SwStr% dropping to 5.8. The velocity remains down, they didn’t chase out of the zone, nothing looks elite right now except the ground balls (61.3%) and weak contact (-6.2 Hard-Soft%). Add to that he’s facing a team with an 18.6 K% vs RHP that’s probably even better than that and it’s difficult to justify paying $10K for him on a full slate. His changeup can still miss bats against average or worse offenses, but I fear we may be beginning to see the decline of King Felix, which may have actually started last year, with all of these miles on his arm once the BABIP magic wears off.

Colby Lewis (.299 BABIP – 97.8 LOB% – 17.1 HR/FB) has stranded nearly every runner and still has an ERA over three! That’s what six HRs in 24 innings will do. His 21.0 Hard-Soft% over a two year rolling period is worst on today’s board.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Phil Hughes has pleasantly rebounded somewhat this season, but still not to what he was in his first year in Minnesota. Additionally, his .327 career wOBA against RHBs is not in a favorable spot tonight.

Alex Wood has a 1.0 K-BB% and has allowed at least three ERs in three of his four starts. His upside is cooked. Maybe he belongs back in the bullpen. He gets ground balls, but that’s about it. Let him be someone else’s problem. San Diego has actually hit LHP well (18.3 Hard-Soft%).

Jake Peavy has his highest SwStr% in a decade, but allows a lot of hard contact in the air. He’s better than his ERA and still seems to have something left in the tank, but faces a high powered offense in a park that isn’t bad, but isn’t home at a not so low price.

Robbie Ray still isn’t allowing HRs (none this year) and has actually decreased his hard contact with an above average SwStr%. Maybe we can begin to consider him on the road, but Arizona has the highest overall run factor (107 – tied with Texas & Boston) outside of Colorado.

Carlos Rodon has more talent than most of the pitchers listed in this section, but has yet to prove that he can consistently throw strikes to major league hitters and is averaging just 5.2 IP in his major league career. That’s not often a recipe for success in Baltimore.

Cesar Vargas was not at all a prospect without any strikeout potential in the low minors until 2014 with the Yankees, but still ended up a minor league free agent signed by the Padres this season. He dominated two AA starts before being called up and looking unimpressive against the Cardinals, which is hardly the team to judge a rookie making his major league debut against. All I can find is some discrepancy about any possible potential or even a starter or reliever.
Henry Owens has been unable to find the plate in his starts at any level this season with at least three walks in all four.

Zachary Davies looked much better in his 2nd start against the Phillies than his first in Pittsburgh. He’s in a not terrible spot against a team that played a night game in LA last night, but it’s not a great park and he hasn’t shown shown much so far. Admittedly, I don’t know that much about him and he does have some prospect appeal with projections ranging from mid rotation starter upside to bullpen.

Kris Medlen is missing bats, but what the hell happened to his control?

Dan Straily has gotten some strikeouts as originally hoped for when moved into the rotation. The problem is that it’s been accompanied by a 12.4 BB% and 26.7 Hard-Soft%. Pittsburgh strikes out at less than the league average rate as well. This is potentially a bad spot for him.

Adam Morgan struck out just 39 of 309 AAA batters faced last season and then 49 more of 352 in Philadelphia with a 0.62 GB/FB. That spelled certain doom. This year he’s struck out 20 of 75 batters at AAA so far. I was initially so disinterested I wasn’t even going to look. I may be more curious from afar now.
Mike Wright

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Aaron Sanchez – This was touched on above, but his SwStr% has greatly decreased since his first start. In fact, 7.7% might be a little misleading since he hasn’t even come close to that mark since then. A K% above 20 is in doubt and there might even be concern he can sustain a 7.0 SwStr%.

Juan Nicasio has not exceed a 6.3 SwStr% since his first start. Expect his K% to tank and him to move to the bullpen, away from facing LHBs frequently very soon.

Masahiro Tanaka has at least a 13.0 SwStr% in each of his last three starts that suggests an even higher K%.

Mike Leake had a career low 6.3 SwStr% last season. He now has a great framing catcher, but Molina can only do so much.

Steven Matz – I was surprised to see just a 4.1 SwStr% against Atlanta last time out after a 13.8 SwStr% against Cleveland. It’s too early to make much of a judgement after just 15 innings.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Adam Conley – We’ve mentioned the three HRs, which have his FIP above four and he’s certainly in a dangerous park tonight. As for the .353 BABIP, his high rate of hard contact has shown itself in his LD% as well as power numbers. He’s generated 21 fly balls without a pop up yet. It seems deserved, but not predictive and a strikeout rate of about a quarter of batters faced should help drive his ERA down eventually.

Corey Kluber – Surprisingly, this isn’t about BABIP, though he’s now flying much higher than Cleveland’s team BABIP because they suddenly have a defense this year. His ERA gap all seems a matter of simple sequencing (62.0%), which is the usually the easiest fix as it generally remedies itself to a large degree.

Mike Fiers has a 28.6 HR/FB that he won’t retain, but potential for something about half that rate is still there.

Mike Leake has a well-deserved .347 BABIP with a LD% that matches, although he’s probably happy that’s more descriptive than predictive. It’s very unlikely it stays that high with a 59.7 LOB% should similarly improve at that point. However, the K% could become a major problem an obstacle to his ERA seeing great decline.

Steven Matz has just 15 innings under his belt this year and is still trying to work off his first disaster.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Aaron Sanchez – Perhaps a stat I should add here instead of above is Hard% or Hard-Soft%. Although I have no proof that it does affect BABIP, I believe it to be true for heavy ground ball pitchers (55+GB%?) as weak ground balls are generally most often turned into outs (unless Billy Hamilton is running). Thus, I believe these pitchers might be of the ability to slightly suppress BABIP in a way not normally expected through other metrics and without the benefit of frequent pop ups. Interesting for this pitcher is his low Z-Contact% considering his low overall SwStr%. A low O-Swing% is then expected and seen in this case (22.1%).

Drew Smyly has a .200 BABIP, but his ERA only really gaps next to his xFIP possibly because he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who has generated five pop ups already. He has a low LD% and Z-Contact%, which speak great for his potential ability at future BABIP suppression and he does have a career .281 BABIP, which he might be able to beat slightly in Tampa Bay, but that still gets him nowhere near .200.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings, especially on our first day of doing so today. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Pricing is tough today with the top values being less valuable than usual (at least in my eyes). Also, there is a large gap between the top two (Tier One) today and the rest of the group that follows (again, at least in my eyes), so you may see some pitchers higher than you (or I) expected to rate them today.

Value Tier One

Drew Smyly (2) is the third lefty I will be rostering against the Blue Jays this week and even more insanely, I have him as the top value tonight, but hear me out before you click to a more reasonable pitching article. Smyly will be the third different type of All Star caliber LHP the Blue Jays have faced in a row after struggling against the first two. He allowed three HRs in Tampa Bay in his first start, but otherwise allowed just three hits, striking out five of 27 total and gets an upgrade in park tonight. The Blue Jays have struggled against LHP this season with only the big three hitting well against them, as Tulo and Martin have struggled and Colabello is gone. This lineup can be pitched to right now and they are facing one of the still under-valued pitchers in the league in a tough park for RH power. His cost on FanDuel is $1.7K less than DraftKings, though I like his as one of the top two on either site.

Corey Kluber (1) is today’s highest priced pitcher on one site and 2nd on the other, but has 18 strikeouts over his last two starts and is easily my top overall rated pitcher tonight in one of the better matchups on the slate against the Phillies.

Value Tier Two

Aaron Sanchez might not be the type of pitcher you’d expect to see rated this highly at a perfectly average price with the reason being I just spent a lot of words telling you about his lack of strikeout potential. While this is true, note what I said about today’s overall group and realize that Tampa Bay strikes out more than most people realize and has the strong potential to pull his K% into the low 20s.

Value Tier Three

Juan Nicasio is a matchup play in a great park against a poor offense and even then, much more so on DraftKings for $1K less. There are plenty of red flags and I can’t see us considering the current version of him again unless the stars line up for him like they do tonight.

Stephen Strasburg (3) is one of the top two priced pitchers tonight and clearly one of my top three overall pitchers tonight, but well behind Kluber and closer to Smyly for nearly $3K more on FanDuel in a very tough spot. This is what a healthy Strasburg without the BABIP issues can look like though. Who’s going to give him $200 million and immediately regret it this winter?

Tyler Chatwood has a $1.8K gap in a below average price tag on the two major sites. You can probably safely cast him aside on DraftKings in an unfavorable spot, but think you might consider him on FanDuel for $4.9K as a super-contrarian GPP play who could exceed value at that cost. You do have to remember how important the Win is on that site, though he’s not that big a dog.

Mike Fiers is in the perfect spot for his skillset tonight. Hard contact is hard contact in any park (although park effects can still play with that somewhat), but it stands less of a chance of hurting him in a park where the additional foul ground is only likely to help him as well.

Adam Conley carries just below an average price tag and comes with some flaws. Some hitters can be called mistake hitters, he looks like he might be a mistake pitcher and those mistakes are often hit hard. The issue can be compounded by occasional wild streaks, but he does get an above average amount of swings and misses on his non-mistakes. Milwaukee would seem to matchup with his strengths and weaknesses leading us to a wide range of potential outcomes, but they are overall a weak opponent vs LHP and the likelihood of plenty of strikeouts trumps all.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Steven Matz has the talent to be among the top producers tonight, but carries plenty of risk in a potentially difficult matchup as well.

Mike Leake is a low cost pitcher in a great park against a terrible team against RHP after everyone starts just walking Bryce Harper like they probably should. He’s probably not worth much more than that sub-$7K cost though.

Masahiro Tanaka seems adequately priced, as he’s exceeded expectations wildly, but is not in a good spot despite the park upgrade for his greatest deficiency (LH power).

Michael Fulmer is a talented arm in a marginal spot, who may only go five innings or so tonight at a mid-range price, which seems to be the norm for top pitching prospects making their debut this year.

Sean Manaea costs nearly $1K more than Fulmer, possibly due to his enormous minor league strikeout rates. It’s perhaps a tougher matchup too, but also one with more upside and has gone at least five innings in all three of his starts.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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