Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 2nd
This is a tremendous slate from the standpoint that there are several pitchers who would be top tier guys on just about any day.. That’s followed by a few perfectly usable arms and then a few we’d normally consider who get bumped today. The results don’t always play out like you plan it, but this pitching article will be easy to write.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | -3.5 | 4.92 | 4.73 | 35.4% | 1.02 | 4.63 | 4.31 | BOS | 110 | 98 | 99 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -14.3 | 3.75 | 5.2 | 50.4% | 0.93 | 3.82 | 4.54 | WAS | 104 | 112 | 101 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 13.6 | 5.17 | 5.12 | 31.6% | 1.02 | 4.72 | 5.36 | ATL | 90 | 94 | 56 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 6.7 | 4.59 | 5. | 38.5% | 0.89 | 4.47 | 6.69 | TAM | 106 | 116 | 130 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1 | 2.4 | 7.13 | 49.1% | 1.02 | 2.68 | 2.87 | MIL | 101 | 103 | 97 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -7.9 | 3.95 | 6.04 | 61.1% | 0.91 | 3.51 | 3.35 | COL | 90 | 86 | 70 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.6 | 3.2 | 6.69 | 60.0% | 1.11 | 3.56 | 2.13 | TEX | 103 | 75 | 107 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.4 | 4.78 | 5.72 | 39.0% | 0.98 | 5.25 | 4.12 | DET | 114 | 97 | 78 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2 | 4.13 | 5.55 | 51.8% | 1.03 | 3.99 | NYY | 110 | 101 | 112 | |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.7 | 4.33 | 5.6 | 47.0% | 0.91 | 4.51 | 4.64 | SDG | 76 | 82 | 63 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -7.4 | 3.84 | 6.04 | 46.0% | 0.91 | 3.88 | 5.28 | NYM | 84 | 99 | 103 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.8 | 4.15 | 5.65 | 35.8% | 0.89 | 4.58 | 4.76 | SEA | 110 | 108 | 121 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 8 | 4.18 | 5.33 | 35.2% | 1.06 | 4.18 | 5.76 | CLE | 93 | 90 | 114 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -5.6 | 4.13 | 6.23 | 49.1% | 0.91 | 4.08 | 3.99 | MIN | 101 | 107 | 96 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4 | 4.03 | 5.98 | 39.7% | 0.96 | 4.14 | 4.03 | SFO | 72 | 73 | 61 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -4 | 4.5 | 5.65 | 49.5% | 1.02 | 4.45 | 2.67 | LOS | 91 | 110 | 103 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 2.3 | 3.83 | 6.45 | 43.5% | 0.96 | 4.02 | 4.68 | STL | 94 | 101 | 74 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.7 | 5.01 | 5.29 | 45.8% | 0.94 | 4.98 | 5.66 | ARI | 74 | 107 | 61 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -5.5 | 4.04 | 6. | 42.4% | 1.06 | 4.05 | 5.13 | KAN | 79 | 79 | 96 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 9.1 | 4.42 | 5.75 | 51.0% | 0.91 | 5.01 | 5.33 | ANA | 108 | 91 | 95 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -11.6 | 4.21 | 5.58 | 46.1% | 0.96 | 4.2 | 3.46 | CHC | 105 | 85 | 46 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.1 | 4.05 | 5.9 | 45.3% | 0.91 | 4.48 | 4.87 | PIT | 83 | 89 | 75 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.01 | 6.31 | 48.9% | 0.98 | 4.14 | 4.49 | CHW | 89 | 80 | 109 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 1.3 | 3.33 | 5.61 | 46.7% | 1.03 | 3.23 | 3.88 | TOR | 99 | 96 | 142 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 2.6 | 4.29 | 5.48 | 0.393 | 1.02 | 3.95 | 4.19 | CIN | 107 | 103 | 100 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -4.9 | 4.1 | 5.45 | 0.508 | 0.94 | 4.18 | 4.68 | MIA | 94 | 116 | 132 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.1 | 3.69 | 6.47 | 0.435 | 1.02 | 3.84 | 4.24 | BAL | 92 | 94 | 88 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -1.9 | 2.92 | 6.32 | 0.422 | 0.93 | 3.16 | 1.4 | OAK | 117 | 101 | 66 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -0.2 | 5.07 | 6.02 | 0.5 | 0.96 | 5.55 | 4.35 | PHI | 101 | 84 | 56 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 1.3 | 3.48 | 6.07 | 0.391 | 1.11 | 3.47 | 5.21 | HOU | 128 | 125 | 184 |
Andrew Triggs is running an ERA about a run and a half below his SIERA and xFIP despite a low 65.2 LOB% (quite a trick) because of his 6.9 HR/FB. Probably not sustainable even in Oakland. He’s running a bit below his FIP due to a .269 BABIP. However, regression may not hit as hard as it seems because he’s severely under-performing his SwStr%. It’s not because he’s walking too many batters (6.7%), while his double digit SwStr% with a 23.1 K% last year, along with strikeout rates in the mid to high 20s throughout this minor league career show his potential. He’s also generating some fantastic contact with a 50 GB% and 24.6 Hard%. The 88.1 mph aEV doesn’t exactly follow, but his 4.0% Barrels/BBE is tied for lowest on the slate. Recent struggles against tough offenses (Yankees & Red Sox) over his last two starts may have players abandoning him, but a solid base with a double digit SwStr% and hard hit rate below 30% remained in both those starts. The Nationals may be another difficult opponent, which the park may help neutralize…if the defense doesn’t give it all back.
Clayton Kershaw allowed three HRs for the second time this season, but this was the first time he failed to go at least six innings, not making it out of the fifth. If you didn’t know the name, you’d look at his 23.1 K-BB%, see that this guy has gone seven innings in eight of 11 starts and the fourth highest rate of weak contact (24.8% – Matt Harvey is above him for whatever that’s worth) and think that this is a great pitcher…but it’s not standard Kershaw. Strikeout rate is down five points, swinging strike three, while his total walks and homers are already more than all of last year. Velocity is stable. The curveball appears to be getting fewer whiffs. This is still a great pitcher and may end up being as great as he was before by the end of the season. He’s in an interesting spot in Milwuakee (25.4 K% vs LHP, 18.6 HR/FB at home).
Clayton Richard has a 58.1 GB%. What he lacked in GB rate in May (51.5%), he picked up in strikeout rate (19.7%), though his SwStr rate (7.7%) actually dropped. He’s not that far below average for the year though with at least a useful amount of strikeouts in a great park against an offense that struggles on the road (15.8 K-BB%) and against LHP (17.2 K-BB%).
Dallas Keuchel bounced back from a skipped start due to a neck issue with six one run innings, striking out eight of 22 batters and a 75% ground ball rate. It’s business as usual with a 23.9 K%, 67.6 GB% and -8.3 Hard-Soft%. Of the 260 batters he’s faced this year, 69.6% have either struck out or grounded out. That does not leave a lot of room for significant damage. He’s in a tough park tonight, but not if they can’t elevate. The Rangers have a 25.4 K% vs LHP.
Michael Fulmer is still beating his estimators by quite a bit with a league average strikeout rate. He has improved in contact quality (23.5 Hard%, 3.2% Barrels/PA) and has gone at least seven innings in five straight starts. The White Sox have a 17.3 K-BB% and 27.5 Hard% vs RHP.
Michael Pineda has a 22.5 K-BB% and an ERA matching his estimators in the low three range. His HR rate is once again through the roof (22 HR/FB), but the ground ball rate is up to 50.9% with a hard hit rate below 30%. A healthy Toronto is one of the hottest offenses in the league (16.5 K%, 21.4 HR/FB over the last week).
Rick Porcello has allowed 10 HRs, but four of those came in one start and he hasn’t allowed more than one in any other start. He’s thrown six innings in 10 of 11 starts with an ability to miss bats that’s above average. His peripherals are the same as last year, though the 42.5 Hard% is a concern, as he’s only been below 40% in three of his last 10 starts and his 6.6% Barrels/PA is one of the higher marks on the board. Baltimore has busted out against two decent pitchers over the last two days, but still have just a 23.0 K-BB% over the last week with the overall numbers depicting an offense that has struggled this year.
Stephen Strasburg has struck out 26 of his last 56 batters and now has at least eight in six of his 10 starts. That, along with a 5.1 Hard-Soft% will get it done on any slate. He even gets a park upgrade in Oakland against a lineup with a 25.1 K% against RHP and an amazing 37.7 K% over the last week. The way these two sides are trending, this matchup is borderline ridiculous from a strikeout potential standpoint.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
JC Ramirez (.283 – 79% -13.4) has pitched into the seventh inning in four straight starts, which could at least make him useful as an SP2 in a great park, but his strikeout rate cratered in May.
Jason Vargas (.281 – 83.9% – 6.3) has dropped his strikeout rate below average over the last month, though it’s still good for him and he’s retained a double digit SwStr% even if a bit below his April mark. Cleveland has been a lesser offense on the road and against LHP, despite just a 6.0 K-BB%, but this is one of the more positive overall run environments in play today. With the strikeout expectation just around average now (again, still good for him), the profile is less attractive.
Yu Darvish (.244 – 85.2% – 13.7) has been inconsistent, though you can’t tell by his sub-three ERA. That’s not the reason he’s here though. Look at the matchup. The Houston offense has been a juggernaut and transitions to the most hitter friendly environment in play today. They have just a 12.4 K% over the last week.
German Marquez (.306 – 77.8% – 8.3) has one of the top matchups on the board in San Diego, but also the highest exit velocity on the board (89.4 mph) at not that low a price.
Jake Odorizzi (.223 – 86.6% – 16.1) has previously beaten estimators at home due to HR suppression. He’s in a potentially more favorable park tonight, but the ERA gap is certainly not due to HR suppression this year. How do you generate such a low BABIP with a 26.1 LD%?
Derek Holland (.257 – 76.4% – 10.8) has allowed 11 unearned runs. Add those in and his “run average” jumps to four.
Alec Asher (.281 – 83.8% – 13.2) may project for a few more strikeouts with his increased SwStr%, he’s facing a low strikeout offense in a tough park.
Jose Urena (.246 – 83% – 10.3)
Ty Blach (.250 – 67.4 – 7.8)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jerad Eickhoff has the top matchup on the board in San Francisco and is probably the biggest victim of circumstances tonight. He’d likely be a useful, if not really desirable, fourth tier option on a lot of nights, but this is a tough slate to crack. The Giants have just a 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but he has just a 6.5 SwStr% in May.
Gerrit Cole would normally be at least a consideration on a weaker or more normal board, but there are too many red flags here. The strikeout rate was way down in May, though the SwStr% wasn’t terrible. He’s struck out a total of eight over his last three starts with nine runs over his last 9.2 innings with a ground ball rate below 40%. His last start featured a hard hit rate of 60.9%, bringing his season rate up to 35%. He has a rematch against that Mets offense in a favorable park, where they have a surprisingly low 8.3 HR/FB.
Jimmy Nelson has been legitimately decent this season, but faces a difficult offense in a dangerous park for power.
Matt Harvey may have had one of his best performances of the season in Pittsburgh over the weekend, but that six innings with four strikeouts and applause when he finds the park is the baseline for success at this point makes for a really sad story.
Josh Tomlin has walked just four batters and his league average HR rate is an improvement for him, but he still doesn’t miss enough bats to be useful. The park should help him keep the ball in the yard tonight against a weak offense though. We’re just not looking for many mediocre arms lacking in upside tonight unless they’re really cheap.
Francisco Liriano returns from a shoulder issue to face the Yankees. He struck out seven of 19 AAA batters in a lone rehab starts (two walks). He missed nearly a month.
Patrick Corbin ended April with three straight starts exceeding a 14 SwStr%. That’s nearly been his strikeout rate in May.
Bronson Arroyo has allowed more HRs (18) than walks (16).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 13.7% | 5.8% | Home | 17.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.1% | Home | 20.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 14.9% | 7.0% | Home | 18.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 14.4% | 5.7% | Home | 20.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 4.2% | 8.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 3.2% | Road | 28.4% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 3.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.6% | 7.4% | Home | 18.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 1.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.0% | Road | 20.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.7% | 8.0% | Road | 15.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.4% | 11.0% | Home | 24.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.3% | Road | 18.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 18.7% | 8.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.9% | Road | 19.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 3.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.3% | Road | 20.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 5.6% | Home | 22.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.1% | Home | 18.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.8% | Home | 21.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 2.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 9.3% | Home | 19.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 2.0% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.6% | Home | 22.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.9% | 8.8% | Home | 15.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.6% | Road | 16.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.5% | 8.6% | Road | 15.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.0% | 9.2% | Road | 24.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.9% | Home | 16.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 12.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.2% | Home | 19.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 13.1% | 3.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.9% | 5.8% | Road | 26.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.7% | Road | 20.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.6% | Road | 17.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 3.9% | Road | 21.5% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 1.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 6.3% | Road | 29.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 3.6% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.0% | 6.8% | Road | 8.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.7% | Home | 28.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 13.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 18.4% | 9.3% | RH | 18.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 8.9% | RH | 19.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.2% | 7.6% | RH | 20.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.6% |
| Rays | Road | 27.3% | 10.0% | RH | 25.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.7% | 9.1% | LH | 25.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.3% | 7.5% | LH | 23.6% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.5% | 9.5% | LH | 25.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.5% | 10.4% | LH | 22.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.4% | 9.0% | LH | 23.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.9% | 9.0% | RH | 25.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 32.7% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Home | 19.7% | 9.4% | RH | 19.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.3% | 10.3% | RH | 20.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.4% |
| Indians | Road | 20.1% | 9.4% | LH | 18.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Road | 20.7% | 9.5% | RH | 22.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.7% |
| Giants | Road | 20.6% | 7.8% | RH | 20.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.9% | 10.4% | RH | 22.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 12.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.9% | 7.9% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.4% | 8.3% | RH | 23.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.5% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 7.4% | RH | 21.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.3% | RH | 20.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.0% | RH | 21.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | RH | 23.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 5.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.7% | 8.2% | RH | 19.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Home | 21.3% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.4% | LH | 20.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 7.8% | RH | 22.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.2% | 8.5% | RH | 25.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 37.7% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.6% | 9.1% | LH | 22.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Road | 18.2% | 9.4% | RH | 18.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 12.4% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 33.0% | 13.2% | 14.9% | Home | 26.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 12.5% | 9.5% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 2017 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | Home | 25.1% | 6.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 11.8% | 16.2% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 36.7% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 2017 | 36.7% | 21.4% | 21.4% | Home | 43.3% | 22.0% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 35.5% | 14.4% | 20.5% | 2017 | 34.5% | 13.9% | 20.7% | Home | 37.3% | 7.1% | 23.9% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 21.1% | 29.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2017 | 30.6% | 14.7% | 5.8% | Road | 28.7% | 12.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 27.3% | 13.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.4% | 14.4% | 7.6% | 2017 | 30.6% | 19.5% | 13.2% | Home | 29.2% | 8.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 16.7% | 10.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.7% | 16.3% | 2.2% | 2017 | 21.1% | 18.8% | -8.3% | Road | 28.7% | 21.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.9% | 17.7% | 2017 | 37.4% | 10.8% | 19.0% | Road | 34.0% | 10.5% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 16.7% | 8.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.1% | 9.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 12.5% | 19.1% | Home | 34.2% | 11.2% | 17.6% | L14 Days | |||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.7% | 10.2% | 19.3% | 2017 | 35.9% | 8.3% | 21.1% | Road | 39.5% | 7.1% | 25.5% | L14 Days | 46.3% | 8.7% | 29.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 2017 | 35.0% | 17.1% | 17.5% | Road | 31.5% | 10.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 46.5% | 35.7% | 30.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 2017 | 32.4% | 16.1% | 20.2% | Road | 32.4% | 13.2% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 15.4% | 30.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 5.4% | 10.4% | 2017 | 29.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | Home | 31.5% | 2.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 13.6% | 15.4% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 2017 | 35.4% | 13.8% | 19.4% | Home | 28.9% | 13.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 43.9% | 15.4% | 34.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2017 | 29.7% | 9.9% | 15.4% | Home | 29.1% | 14.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 11.1% | 17.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 2017 | 33.9% | 10.7% | 14.8% | Home | 33.1% | 13.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.9% | 13.7% | 16.3% | 2017 | 36.4% | 21.0% | 21.1% | Home | 33.3% | 14.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 59.4% | 25.0% | 43.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 2017 | 30.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | Home | 33.1% | 11.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 23.1% | -3.7% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 33.6% | 16.4% | 18.6% | 2017 | 33.2% | 13.3% | 21.1% | Road | 35.2% | 14.3% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 40.0% | 18.9% | 25.4% | Road | 33.0% | 14.1% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 53.1% | 16.7% | 46.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.2% | 16.9% | 10.6% | Road | 31.5% | 20.6% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 15.4% | -6.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 2017 | 35.0% | 20.7% | 10.1% | Home | 30.3% | 14.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 2017 | 23.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | Home | 31.4% | 9.6% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | -3.9% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.2% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 2017 | 28.1% | 22.0% | 11.2% | Road | 29.8% | 15.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.5% | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2017 | 28.9% | 17.0% | 12.0% | Road | 29.2% | 17.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 22.2% | 21.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.1% | 16.3% | 20.6% | 2017 | 36.1% | 17.2% | 21.2% | Road | 34.1% | 19.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 51.3% | 25.0% | 35.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 33.1% | 10.8% | 16.6% | 2017 | 42.5% | 11.2% | 25.8% | Road | 31.3% | 11.4% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 0.0% | 12.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.2% | 4.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | Road | 23.7% | 5.2% | -1.7% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% | -10.7% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 13.1% | Road | 35.4% | 15.4% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 8.3% | 23.9% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.8% | 15.5% | Home | 33.7% | 13.5% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 18.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Road | 33.7% | 12.6% | 14.5% | RH | 36.1% | 9.5% | 19.0% | L7Days | 37.0% | 15.8% | 17.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.0% | 13.8% | 11.3% | RH | 31.3% | 14.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| Braves | Road | 31.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | RH | 31.1% | 10.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.8% | 7.1% | 17.5% |
| Rays | Road | 36.0% | 18.7% | 17.4% | RH | 36.5% | 18.1% | 18.8% | L7Days | 37.9% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.4% | 18.6% | 18.0% | LH | 36.2% | 16.5% | 15.5% | L7Days | 35.4% | 10.9% | 19.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.9% | 13.0% | 10.5% | LH | 31.4% | 16.7% | 12.0% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.7% | 15.1% | 14.2% | LH | 30.7% | 14.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 28.1% | 13.5% | 3.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 49.1% | 12.9% | 35.0% | LH | 41.2% | 14.6% | 23.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 11.5% | 17.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.2% | 12.8% | 13.5% | LH | 27.4% | 13.3% | 5.1% | L7Days | 34.2% | 11.1% | 15.7% |
| Padres | Home | 26.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | RH | 28.7% | 14.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.8% | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Mets | Home | 32.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | RH | 35.2% | 11.6% | 17.7% | L7Days | 42.6% | 10.8% | 26.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | RH | 30.3% | 11.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 7.4% | 15.1% |
| Indians | Road | 35.4% | 11.1% | 17.8% | LH | 32.3% | 12.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
| Twins | Road | 32.0% | 12.6% | 16.6% | RH | 33.4% | 13.6% | 18.3% | L7Days | 34.7% | 12.7% | 21.2% |
| Giants | Road | 31.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | RH | 29.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 27.4% | 3.6% | 11.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.4% | 9.3% | 16.2% | RH | 34.6% | 13.4% | 19.9% | L7Days | 34.0% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.9% | 11.0% | 16.3% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 34.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 28.6% | 12.6% | 8.3% | RH | 36.3% | 16.0% | 19.5% | L7Days | 25.7% | 7.4% | 1.1% |
| Royals | Home | 30.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | RH | 31.4% | 12.5% | 11.6% | L7Days | 29.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% |
| Angels | Home | 28.8% | 14.4% | 9.3% | RH | 30.5% | 13.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 31.9% | 17.7% | 13.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.9% | 16.2% | 14.0% | RH | 29.4% | 11.8% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.9% | -5.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.0% | 11.2% | 7.3% | RH | 29.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 34.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 29.3% | 14.7% | 10.9% | RH | 27.5% | 13.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 16.3% | 4.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.7% | 13.6% | 11.5% | RH | 31.1% | 15.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 21.4% | 18.0% |
| Reds | Home | 29.0% | 14.6% | 8.4% | RH | 28.8% | 13.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 26.4% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.2% | 16.1% | 10.5% | LH | 30.6% | 20.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 31.4% | 21.8% | 8.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.5% | 13.2% | 7.2% | RH | 30.0% | 14.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 12.9% | 7.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.4% | 17.5% | 20.2% | RH | 35.8% | 16.0% | 19.7% | L7Days | 32.9% | 15.7% | 15.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.8% | 14.4% | 8.4% | LH | 30.2% | 16.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Astros | Road | 31.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | RH | 31.3% | 15.0% | 13.5% | L7Days | 33.2% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 17.6% | 9.9% | 1.78 | 17.4% | 10.4% | 1.67 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 18.8% | 11.4% | 1.65 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 1.55 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 14.9% | 7.8% | 1.91 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 1.62 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 12.6% | 6.7% | 1.88 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 1.88 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 26.5% | 12.2% | 2.17 | 25.2% | 13.5% | 1.87 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 17.3% | 8.5% | 2.04 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 2.56 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.9% | 10.8% | 2.21 | 27.4% | 10.4% | 2.63 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.36 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 2.39 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 21.6% | 10.9% | 1.98 | 13.9% | 9.4% | 1.48 |
| German Marquez | COL | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.43 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 2.49 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 19.9% | 9.4% | 2.12 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 1.82 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.0% | 11.6% | 1.81 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 1.95 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 21.0% | 11.5% | 1.83 | 18.3% | 10.5% | 1.74 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 19.3% | 9.0% | 2.14 | 12.1% | 6.2% | 1.95 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.2% | 8.1% | 2.49 | 18.4% | 6.5% | 2.83 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 27.4% | 11.3% | 2.42 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 23.3% | 11.0% | 2.12 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 1.84 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.99 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.12 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.7% | 7.4% | 2.26 | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.0% | 10.1% | 1.39 | 16.9% | 10.7% | 1.58 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.2% | 9.3% | 2.39 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 2.50 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 16.5% | 7.8% | 2.12 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 2.23 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 19.5% | 9.6% | 2.03 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.79 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.5% | 14.2% | 1.94 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 1.68 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.09 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.05 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.82 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 2.19 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 22.4% | 11.0% | 2.04 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.93 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 27.3% | 11.3% | 2.42 | 32.1% | 12.1% | 2.65 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 9.5% | 5.5% | 1.73 | 10.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 25.3% | 11.1% | 2.28 | 23.3% | 12.1% | 1.93 |
Just three outliers today. One, we’ve already talked about and one is a known habitual offender.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 3.77 | 4.35 | 0.58 | 5.01 | 1.24 | 5.01 | 1.24 | 5.38 | 1.61 | 4.37 | 4.24 | -0.13 | 4.87 | 0.5 | 5.47 | 1.1 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 2.64 | 4.21 | 1.57 | 4.24 | 1.6 | 3.42 | 0.78 | 3.03 | 0.39 | 3.45 | 4.49 | 1.04 | 4.44 | 0.99 | 3.95 | 0.5 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 6.62 | 5.16 | -1.46 | 5.5 | -1.12 | 7.24 | 0.62 | 10.51 | 3.89 | 6.08 | 5.49 | -0.59 | 5.96 | -0.12 | 8.59 | 2.51 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 4.67 | 5.21 | 0.54 | 5.4 | 0.73 | 5.52 | 0.85 | 6.66 | 1.99 | 4.67 | 5.21 | 0.54 | 5.4 | 0.73 | 5.52 | 0.85 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.37 | 3.06 | 0.69 | 2.92 | 0.55 | 3.09 | 0.72 | 2.89 | 0.52 | 2.08 | 3.29 | 1.21 | 3.02 | 0.94 | 3.18 | 1.1 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.33 | 3.84 | -0.49 | 3.48 | -0.85 | 3.97 | -0.36 | 4.66 | 0.33 | 4.36 | 3.74 | -0.62 | 3.27 | -1.09 | 3.31 | -1.05 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.81 | 2.93 | 1.12 | 2.78 | 0.97 | 3.11 | 1.3 | 1.59 | -0.22 | 2.88 | 2.01 | -0.87 | 1.97 | -0.91 | 2.6 | -0.28 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.37 | 4.56 | 2.19 | 4.75 | 2.38 | 4.37 | 2 | 4.78 | 2.41 | 2.56 | 4.4 | 1.84 | 4.49 | 1.93 | 4.59 | 2.03 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 6.35 | 5.29 | -1.06 | 5.02 | -1.33 | 4.95 | -1.4 | 4.58 | -1.77 | 15.88 | 7.25 | -8.63 | 8.16 | -7.72 | 10.63 | -5.25 |
| German Marquez | COL | 3.76 | 4.39 | 0.63 | 4.45 | 0.69 | 3.7 | -0.06 | 5.99 | 2.23 | 2.64 | 4.45 | 1.81 | 4.56 | 1.92 | 4.18 | 1.54 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.65 | 3.97 | 0.32 | 3.87 | 0.22 | 4.4 | 0.75 | 3.91 | 0.26 | 3.82 | 4.36 | 0.54 | 4.19 | 0.37 | 5 | 1.18 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.14 | 4.24 | 1.1 | 4.25 | 1.11 | 4.68 | 1.54 | 4.45 | 1.31 | 2.93 | 4.26 | 1.33 | 4.22 | 1.29 | 4.38 | 1.45 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.39 | 4.2 | 1.81 | 4.42 | 2.03 | 3.22 | 0.83 | 4.30 | 1.91 | 3.45 | 5.09 | 1.64 | 5.53 | 2.08 | 4.47 | 1.02 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 3.38 | 4.05 | 0.67 | 3.86 | 0.48 | 3.94 | 0.56 | 3.31 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 4.49 | 1.82 | 4.2 | 1.53 | 4.55 | 1.88 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.74 | 4.35 | -0.39 | 4.44 | -0.3 | 3.9 | -0.84 | 6.89 | 2.15 | 6.08 | 4.4 | -1.68 | 4.26 | -1.82 | 4.28 | -1.8 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.83 | 3.84 | 0.01 | 3.73 | -0.1 | 3.41 | -0.42 | 4.84 | 1.01 | 2.28 | 3.09 | 0.81 | 2.75 | 0.47 | 2.39 | 0.11 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.18 | 3.89 | -1.29 | 3.95 | -1.23 | 5.05 | -0.13 | 5.56 | 0.38 | 5.27 | 3.97 | -1.3 | 4.28 | -0.99 | 5.12 | -0.15 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.14 | 5.16 | 2.02 | 5.56 | 2.42 | 5.06 | 1.92 | 5.69 | 2.55 | 3.23 | 5.52 | 2.29 | 5.87 | 2.64 | 5.32 | 2.09 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.79 | 4 | -1.79 | 3.75 | -2.04 | 3.77 | -2.02 | 7.15 | 1.36 | 3.58 | 4.06 | 0.48 | 3.99 | 0.41 | 3.77 | 0.19 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 7.85 | 5.39 | -2.46 | 5.29 | -2.56 | 6.04 | -1.81 | 6.91 | -0.94 | 7.53 | 5.5 | -2.03 | 4.98 | -2.55 | 4.57 | -2.96 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.93 | 4.13 | 1.2 | 4.24 | 1.31 | 4.74 | 1.81 | 4.96 | 2.03 | 3.41 | 4.01 | 0.6 | 4.23 | 0.82 | 5.14 | 1.73 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.95 | 5.15 | 0.2 | 4.95 | 0 | 5.95 | 1 | 4.55 | -0.40 | 5.74 | 5.45 | -0.29 | 5.38 | -0.36 | 6.38 | 0.64 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.65 | 3.97 | 1.32 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 3.05 | 0.4 | 2.56 | -0.09 | 2.19 | 3.87 | 1.68 | 3.81 | 1.62 | 2.09 | -0.1 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.32 | 3.05 | -0.27 | 2.97 | -0.35 | 3.93 | 0.61 | 1.90 | -1.42 | 3.48 | 3.59 | 0.11 | 3.58 | 0.1 | 4.65 | 1.17 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.44 | 4.37 | -0.07 | 4.28 | -0.16 | 4.8 | 0.36 | 5.79 | 1.35 | 6.12 | 4.55 | -1.57 | 4.34 | -1.78 | 5.68 | -0.44 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.14 | 4.3 | -0.84 | 4.18 | -0.96 | 4.72 | -0.42 | 6.60 | 1.46 | 9 | 4.41 | -4.59 | 4.27 | -4.73 | 6.42 | -2.58 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.21 | 3.72 | -0.49 | 3.9 | -0.31 | 3.57 | -0.64 | 4.41 | 0.20 | 3.94 | 3.84 | -0.1 | 4 | 0.06 | 2.91 | -1.03 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.94 | 3.32 | 0.38 | 3.17 | 0.23 | 2.46 | -0.48 | 2.04 | -0.90 | 2.78 | 3.08 | 0.3 | 2.98 | 0.2 | 2.3 | -0.48 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 3.83 | 5.27 | 1.44 | 4.9 | 1.07 | 4.17 | 0.34 | 7.10 | 3.27 | 4.55 | 4.98 | 0.43 | 4.61 | 0.06 | 4.46 | -0.09 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 2.97 | 4.1 | 1.13 | 3.95 | 0.98 | 4.03 | 1.06 | 2.81 | -0.16 | 2.9 | 4.25 | 1.35 | 4.32 | 1.42 | 4.59 | 1.69 |
Clayton Kershaw has one of the highest strand rates in history (78.6%), but that’s still well below his 86.2 LOB% this season.
Dallas Keuchel has a .223 BABIP and 87.7 LOB%. The contact he’s generated has been excellent, but the question is if he can maintain it. Those numbers are a bit extreme.
Michael Fulmer is generating weaker contact, making a .280 BABIP (higher than last year) reasonable along with a decent profile. His 6.3 HR/FB is unsustainable though.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 0.308 | 0.281 | -0.027 | 34.8% | 0.239 | 18.4% | 87.4% | 86.9 | 7.40% | 5.30% | 94 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.283 | 0.269 | -0.014 | 50.0% | 0.167 | 5.2% | 84.7% | 88.1 | 4.00% | 2.90% | 175 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.274 | 0.258 | -0.016 | 31.6% | 0.201 | 8.3% | 90.5% | 88.5 | 11.30% | 8.80% | 177 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 0.284 | 0.280 | -0.004 | 42.9% | 0.143 | 13.9% | 89.2% | 88.9 | 6.90% | 5.40% | 87 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.289 | 0.265 | -0.024 | 47.3% | 0.189 | 10.3% | 83.7% | 85.7 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 206 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.296 | 0.336 | 0.04 | 58.1% | 0.228 | 4.9% | 88.7% | 86.6 | 5.50% | 4.20% | 219 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.284 | 0.223 | -0.061 | 67.6% | 0.142 | 6.3% | 88.9% | 83.8 | 5.60% | 3.80% | 180 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.268 | 0.257 | -0.011 | 37.6% | 0.197 | 5.4% | 86.7% | 88.7 | 6.90% | 4.70% | 174 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.303 | 0.346 | 0.043 | 48.2% | 0.229 | 4.2% | 84.1% | 87.3 | 6.00% | 3.60% | 84 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.291 | 0.306 | 0.015 | 42.5% | 0.197 | 10.4% | 92.0% | 89.4 | 6.30% | 4.50% | 128 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.307 | 0.278 | -0.029 | 47.0% | 0.177 | 5.7% | 86.7% | 87.9 | 8.30% | 6.20% | 206 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.277 | 0.223 | -0.054 | 33.3% | 0.261 | 3.6% | 81.5% | 86.1 | 7.20% | 5.10% | 139 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.300 | 0.281 | -0.019 | 33.9% | 0.201 | 12.5% | 80.1% | 86.1 | 4.00% | 2.90% | 176 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.279 | 0.283 | 0.004 | 45.8% | 0.218 | 8.6% | 88.9% | 86.7 | 5.00% | 3.70% | 181 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.294 | 0.326 | 0.032 | 38.1% | 0.216 | 7.0% | 89.0% | 88.3 | 7.10% | 5.10% | 182 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.309 | 0.333 | 0.024 | 46.1% | 0.2 | 1.8% | 86.1% | 86.4 | 4.20% | 2.90% | 168 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.296 | 0.313 | 0.017 | 44.4% | 0.193 | 8.1% | 84.9% | 86 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 176 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.279 | 0.246 | -0.033 | 37.9% | 0.182 | 13.8% | 91.7% | 85.4 | 9.60% | 7.10% | 136 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.301 | 0.335 | 0.034 | 43.3% | 0.246 | 3.3% | 90.8% | 88 | 5.80% | 4.70% | 190 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.275 | 0.358 | 0.083 | 49.6% | 0.217 | 2.7% | 89.6% | 89 | 10.00% | 7.30% | 130 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.289 | 0.212 | -0.077 | 45.6% | 0.171 | 5.1% | 80.0% | 86.5 | 6.90% | 4.60% | 160 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.321 | 0.255 | -0.066 | 44.8% | 0.218 | 8.6% | 87.8% | 86.3 | 7.90% | 5.60% | 177 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.303 | 0.280 | -0.023 | 48.5% | 0.203 | 11.1% | 87.3% | 85.2 | 4.40% | 3.20% | 204 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.287 | 0.262 | -0.025 | 50.9% | 0.176 | 6.0% | 85.4% | 87.5 | 6.90% | 4.60% | 160 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.281 | 0.312 | 0.031 | 41.9% | 0.25 | 11.3% | 86.2% | 86.6 | 7.80% | 5.80% | 166 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.285 | 0.330 | 0.045 | 48.5% | 0.204 | 9.4% | 86.0% | 89.2 | 7.70% | 5.80% | 207 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.310 | 0.370 | 0.06 | 39.1% | 0.205 | 9.0% | 85.0% | 88.8 | 9.00% | 6.60% | 221 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.298 | 0.282 | -0.016 | 47.4% | 0.194 | 8.6% | 85.6% | 87.9 | 7.90% | 5.20% | 178 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.306 | 0.250 | -0.056 | 47.9% | 0.209 | 5.9% | 89.7% | 86.3 | 6.00% | 5.00% | 168 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.284 | 0.244 | -0.04 | 37.2% | 0.267 | 6.2% | 85.4% | 86.6 | 7.20% | 4.60% | 181 |
Clayton Richard doesn’t generate a lot of pop-ups, maybe a few too many line drives and about league average contact rates with his ground balls. His career BABIP is .301. He’ll likely trend more towards that.
Rick Porcello is allowing a ton of hard contact, but it isn’t showing in his LD rate and he has already allowed 10 HRs. Why is his BABIP so enormous then?
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Stephen Strasburg (1) costs more than he ever has, but I’ll repeat myself from before. He has struck out 26 of his last 56 batters, while Oakland has a team-wide 37.7 K% over the last week.
Value Tier Two
Michael Pineda (4) is facing a hot offense, but I can’t figure out why he costs just $8.5K with a 22.5 K% and, finally, an ERA that matches his strong peripherals. Though the strikeouts were down a bit in May, the SwStr% remained elite and he went at least six innings in all five starts.
Value Tier Three
Clayton Richard has allowed four or more runs in five of his 11 starts, but has been a mostly efficient pitcher by the underlying numbers and is in a nice spot at home against the Rockies at a low cost, especially on DraftKings, where he’d make a nice complement to one of the higher priced guys.
Dallas Keuchel (3) has been great and returned to being great right off the DL. The park isn’t as much of an issue if he’s not going to allow much of anything in the air. He costs a lot among a strong group for a guy who doesn’t strike out a ton of batters.
Clayton Kershaw (2) continues to pitch like an All-Star and borderline Hall of Famer this year and is in a high strikeout spot, but he’s already allowed more HRs than all of last season and is priced like the same old Clayton Kershaw against an offense with some power.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Fulmer has an unsustainably low HR rate with just a league average strikeout rate, but a guy who gets deep into games consistently and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact is worth something, especially against a poor offense that doesn’t hit the ball hard.
Andrew Triggs may not be as good as his ERA, but his SwStr% suggests perhaps better than his estimators, which also don’t take into consideration the quality of contact he’s allowed. He continues to carry a low price tag, facing a difficult team in a favorable park. The biggest concern in this one might be his defense.
Rick Porcello is allowing a dangerous amount of hard contact and is traveling to face a dangerous team in a dangerous park. While they’ve perked up the last two days, it’s an offense that underperformed this season. Pricing algorithms don’t take hard contact into account outside of surface results, so the reason a guy with the same strong peripherals as last year costs much less now is because you’re not paying for a bunch of Wins.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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