Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, June 9th
Whereas yesterday we focused on some struggling high end pitchers with two coming through and some lower end pitchers standing out, today will certainly be different. There’s only one high end guy on a 14 game slate and he’s just one start removed from a DL stint. Today, we’re focusing on some younger pitchers and relievers turned starters that have been interesting in small sample sizes.
Before getting started, I choose this as my one time this year to rant against the Win. Thankfully, sites have improved the de-emphasis of the Win, especially FanDuel this year, but it still counts for something. Last night was one of the more ridiculous circumstances I’ve seen this season. Lance McCullers pitched seven two hit innings with eight strikeouts, but left with the game tied at one. In comes the reliever for one inning, who is credited with the Win when the Astros explode in the ninth. Aren’t MLB and that official scorer embarrassed by looking at that box score and seeing the W next to the reliever already? If you’re not going to #KillTheWIn, at least kill the reliever W.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.8 | 4.58 | 5.6 | 47.3% | 0.96 | 3.86 | 4.98 | OAK | 79 | 102 | 115 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 13.6 | 5.12 | 5.24 | 42.6% | 0.89 | 5.05 | 8.27 | LOS | 114 | 97 | 36 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.3 | 4.79 | 5.38 | 47.9% | 1.01 | 5.36 | 5.07 | WAS | 122 | 112 | 106 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -14.3 | 3.81 | 5.12 | 50.3% | 0.96 | 3.75 | 4.83 | TAM | 109 | 112 | 76 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 43.5% | 0.94 | 3.4 | 2.09 | ANA | 78 | 91 | 105 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 5.1 | 4.32 | 6.03 | 32.7% | 1.13 | 3.23 | 3.24 | DET | 84 | 110 | 172 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -5.5 | 3.42 | 6.7 | 42.3% | 1.09 | 3.51 | 1.24 | CHW | 89 | 82 | 93 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.5 | 4.44 | 5.7 | 34.1% | 1.01 | 4.93 | 5.11 | NYY | 125 | 119 | 120 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 8 | 4.52 | 4.05 | 34.8% | 0.91 | 4.52 | SDG | 75 | 63 | 77 | |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 9.1 | 4.46 | 6.27 | 41.9% | 0.93 | 4.46 | 5.19 | SFO | 72 | 79 | 116 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4 | 4.37 | 5.64 | 39.2% | 0.98 | 4.87 | 6.19 | STL | 94 | 94 | 66 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -7.9 | 4.32 | 5.32 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 3.8 | 3.84 | KAN | 73 | 81 | 96 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2 | 3.36 | 5.02 | 55.9% | 0.89 | 3.67 | 2.9 | SEA | 117 | 111 | 142 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 1.3 | 4.4 | 5.61 | 37.3% | 1.01 | 4.59 | 4.33 | BAL | 94 | 96 | 85 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.6 | 4.32 | 5.84 | 40.6% | 1.13 | 4.86 | 4.49 | BOS | 88 | 94 | 53 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 2.6 | 4.19 | 6.14 | 38.1% | 1 | 4.31 | 4.75 | NYM | 121 | 104 | 138 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.1 | 4.14 | 5.85 | 45.4% | 1 | 4.41 | 5.19 | ATL | 101 | 94 | 117 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -0.2 | 4.54 | 5.79 | 38.2% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 5.34 | MIN | 100 | 84 | 95 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -5.6 | 4.04 | 5.76 | 40.4% | 0.94 | 4.72 | 4.74 | HOU | 114 | 124 | 130 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -11.6 | 4.14 | 5.61 | 45.8% | 0.98 | 3.85 | 4.94 | PHI | 74 | 87 | 95 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.4 | 4.83 | 5.68 | 39.7% | 1.09 | 5.02 | 4.55 | CLE | 106 | 103 | 84 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | -4.9 | 3.98 | 4.28 | 41.9% | 1.13 | 4.04 | 2.9 | MIL | 98 | 98 | 89 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1 | 3.42 | 5.5 | 44.5% | 0.89 | 4.24 | 5.33 | CIN | 100 | 106 | 122 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 6.7 | 4.56 | 5.25 | 47.1% | 0.89 | 3.29 | 3.95 | TOR | 90 | 96 | 88 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -1.9 | 4.24 | 6.09 | 0.477 | 1.01 | 4 | 4.33 | TEX | 82 | 96 | 83 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -7.4 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 0.453 | 0.97 | 5.07 | 4.41 | MIA | 96 | 92 | 96 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.7 | 4.55 | 4.78 | 0.472 | 0.97 | 4.84 | 4.71 | PIT | 88 | 90 | 116 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -4 | 4.28 | 5.66 | 0.475 | 1.13 | 4.46 | 4.22 | ARI | 121 | 106 | 99 |
Andrew Triggs has struck out five or fewer in nine of 11 starts and four or less in four of his last five despite a double digit SwStr% in three of those games and seven times overall. With a 23.1 K% last year in 56 innings supplying a similar SwStr% and above average strikeout rates throughout the minors an increase in strikeout rate would seem like a matter of time. In the meanwhile, he’ll settle for a 49.7 GB% and 25.5 Hard%. Over his last four starts, the grounder rate has dropped to 37.7%, not that big of a deal in Oakland. He’s not at home tonight, but in still in a favorable park in Tampa Bay with an opportunity for more strikeouts, as the Rays whiff 25.7% of the time against RHP, though with an 18.7 HR/FB.
Brad Peacock has struck out 25 of 59 batters in a starting role, walking just four and completing six innings his last time out. He was somewhat of a prospect at one point in time. He hasn’t faced easy offenses either against Detroit, at Minnesota and at Texas. Contact has been a bit of a problem (44 Hard%), but not with that many strikeouts and just a 0.8% Barrels/PA this year, lowest on the board. What he’s done is spike his slider usage up over 40%, playing well off his fastball and curve. He appears to be in a favorable spot against the Trout-less Angels, though they have just a 12.4 K% over the last week.
Brian Johnson has toiled around the Boston system since 2012, receiving just one major league start in 2015 prior to this year, dealing with some unfortunate personal circumstances since then. After Toronto torched him in a spot start in April, he returned to shut out the Mariners on eight strikeouts a couple of weeks ago. The 10th rated prospect in the system, but with just a 40 grade from Fangraphs. However, he projects as what he’s been at 26 years old and that’s a back end or spot starter. The good news is that he’s generated an above average strikeout rate at just about every stop with more than a couple of starts. With a ground ball rate below 40% at all levels since the start of last season, he could run into some trouble against the hottest offense in baseball (54.4 Hard% over the last week) in a tough park.
Corey Kluber returned from a month long DL stint eight days ago to strike out 10 of 20 Oakland batters in just 77 pitches. About 10 more pitches allows him 13 strikeouts tonight, right? That’s a bit of a joke, but so are the White Sox against RHP (17.8 K-BB%).
Eric Skoglund has a perfectly average 12.1 K-BB% through two starts and although not much of a prospect, he’s been between 15% and 17% at each minor league stop since being drafted. He’s in the best spot on the board tonight in San Diego (23.9 K% at home and vs LHP, 27.7 K-BB% last seven days).
Jhoulys Chacin has increased his SwStr% over the last month and now has a strikeout rate just a touch under average for the season. He’s had the occasional blow up with seven runs or more in three of his 12 starts, but no more than three earned in any of his other nine and one run or less four times. At home this season (five starts), he has a 1.36 ERA/3.07 FIP/3.61 xFIP with a 14.4 K-BB%. His ground ball rate shoots up to 58.6% with a -1.1 Hard-Soft%. While this sample size obviously still has some noise to it, there’s a chance he feels more comfortable and pitches better in the confines of Petco. Tonight, he faces a poor Kansas City offense that loses their DH and has little patience or power.
Joe Biagini has a month worth of starts now (six) in which he has generated a 15.1 K-BB%, 63.8 GB% and 25.8 Hard%. That’s a top of the rotation profile. Over his last two starts, he’s struck out 13 of 54 batters in 13 innings with a 65.8 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% against the Yankees and Rangers. Much like the Trout-less Angels, the Cruz-less Mariners have actually shown offensive improvement without their top hitter and are a difficult matchup that may be a bit neutralized by an extremely negative run environment.
Jordan Montgomery has the second highest SwStr% on the board among those with more than three starts. While he’s been able to suppress HRs a bit too much to sustain in this park, his 13.0 K-BB% and 24.1 Hard% are impressive even if we’re concerned with just a 37.3 GB%. The Baltimore offense has certainly been a disappointment (25 K% on the road and vs LHP) and are likely to be without their top player (Machado) again tonight.
Michael Wacha has gotten torched for 16 runs (15 earned) with three HRs over his last 11.1 innings, spanning three starts, which includes nine of his 21 walks this season. Hard contact has increased more than 10 points over his season rate (36%), but so has his ground ball rate (50%) over this span, while retaining a league average SwStr%. Overall his 27% of BBEs below a 95 mph exit velocity is tops on the board. In this three game stretch, he has a .455 BABIP and 48.3 LOB% despite just a 13.9 LD%. Two starts against the Dodgers and one at Wrigley with the wind blowing out can do that to a guy. There’s a decent enough chance he bounces back at home against the Phillies (23 K% on the road and vs RHP).
Randall Delgado has struck out 15 of 57 batters through three starts (13.0 SwStr%) with a -5.0 Hard-Soft%, working his way above 90 pitches in each of his last two starts. He has been in some fortunate spots, most recently on the road in Miami and Pittsburgh with his first start at home against the White Sox. It may be a bit more difficult at home against a powerful Milwaukee offense (18.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but they will swing and miss too (24.9 K% vs RHP).
Tanner Roark has a 12.6 K-BB% just a bit above last season with the big difference being a more consistently average approach rather than spiking his strikeouts in just a couple of outings like last year. He remains a quality contact manager with a 26.3 Hard% and 86 mph aEV (5.5% Barrels/BBE), though his soft contact rate is down 7.9 points from last year. The full run increase in ERA is only in line to meet his estimators this year with an 11 point drop in strand rate. He’s facing a Texas offense that’s not very good (23.1 K%), which may be more exploitable in a neutral park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Sam Gaviglio (.235 – 75% – 21.7) probably sees improvement in his HR rate as his overall contact rates aren’t too bad, but his non-FIP estimators still aren’t great with just a 15.1 K% and 6.1 SwStr%. He’s not in a bad spot against a cooled off Toronto team, who’s returning bats haven’t done all that much.
Ervin Santana (.153 – 87.7% – 11.8) may not be a bad pitcher, though his 8.3 K-BB% suggests otherwise. He’s probably an over-priced one though, even in San Francisco tonight. He costs $11K on DraftKings!
Rich Hill (.286 – 79.7% – 12.5) has yet to go more than five innings in any of his six starts and has walked 13 of his last 60 batters. While his 82.2 mph aEV is the lowest mark on the board by a wide margin, this Cincinnati offense is no joke.
Dylan Bundy (.261 – 83.8% – 9.0) is in one of the worst spots on the board in Yankee Stadium.
Jeremy Hellickson (.219 – 72.5% – 13.1) has just nine more strikeouts than walks with 11 HRs over his last seven starts.
Andrew Cashner (.269 – 78.2% – 8.6) has a -1.2 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Harvey seems to be good for five innings with four walks and five Ks just about every time out with a post-game statement calling it an improvement if that’s your kind of thing. He’s successfully found the park for five straight starts though, so that’s something.
Matt Shoemaker has the highest SwStr% on the board over the last month for anyone with more than three starts and has been above 11% in each of those five starts, but allows a lot of hard contact in the air and faces Houston. Just for some perspective, he’s allowed 13 HRs pitching in a power suppressing park and has only even pitched in one power friendly park this season with road starts in Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Houston, Kansas City and Oakland. He allowed two HRs in that last start in Houston.
Zach Davies has occasionally had a few starts where he’s looked decent like last time out (6 IP – 0 R – 1 BB – 6 K), but he’s also struck out three or fewer in five of his last seven starts and has one of the worst matchups on the board in Arizona tonight.
Julio Teheran has allowed 12 HRs over his last seven starts. Although he’s allowed nine of 14 at home in six starts this year, his five on the road all came in his last two starts.
Matt Moore has shown improvement over the last month? Well, no. He has just an 8.4 K-BB%, lower than his season rate, with an 80.6 LOB%.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.9% | Home | 19.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 17.0% | 10.4% | Road | 16.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 15.8% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 10.2% | Road | 14.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 5.4% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.0% | Road | 21.5% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.1% | Home | 35.5% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 4.7% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.4% | 9.2% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.4% | 6.5% | Home | 27.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 5.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.1% | Road | 20.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.1% | Road | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.1% | ||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.0% | Road | 19.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.1% | Road | 14.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.6% | Home | 21.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.9% | Road | 20.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 3.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.3% | 9.2% | Home | 26.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.4% | Road | 15.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.2% | Home | 21.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.2% | Road | 18.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.5% | Home | 22.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.0% | Road | 18.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.2% | Home | 20.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 15.3% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.0% | Road | 14.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.7% | Home | 21.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 2.4% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 8.5% | Home | 24.7% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 15.8% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.1% | 5.4% | Home | 21.1% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 5.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.7% | Home | 21.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 3.6% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 12.0% | Home | 19.6% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 6.8% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 16.2% | 8.7% | Road | 15.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 7.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.0% | Road | 16.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 7.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 26.2% | 8.5% | RH | 24.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.3% | 9.6% | LH | 21.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 31.7% | 8.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 9.6% | RH | 19.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 10.1% | RH | 25.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Road | 20.9% | 9.6% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 12.4% | 8.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 25.2% | 10.1% | LH | 20.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 5.9% | RH | 23.7% | 5.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.8% | 10.8% | RH | 22.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 23.8% | 8.4% | LH | 23.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.4% | 4.7% |
| Giants | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.7% | 11.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 9.1% |
| Royals | Road | 21.6% | 6.5% | RH | 21.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.4% | 10.0% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.9% | 6.0% | LH | 25.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 5.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 9.5% | RH | 18.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.1% |
| Mets | Road | 19.3% | 8.8% | RH | 19.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 8.5% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 12.8% | 7.6% |
| Twins | Road | 21.4% | 8.8% | LH | 20.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.6% |
| Astros | Home | 17.8% | 7.6% | RH | 18.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.7% | 7.1% | RH | 23.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.5% |
| Indians | Home | 19.6% | 10.0% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.0% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.3% | 8.7% | RH | 24.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 8.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 7.8% | LH | 19.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.8% | 7.8% | RH | 23.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.0% | 7.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.0% | 6.0% | RH | 20.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.7% | 9.4% | RH | 18.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 9.0% | RH | 23.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 12.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 15.6% | 21.2% | 2017 | 37.5% | 13.7% | 24.2% | Home | 41.0% | 20.0% | 24.8% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 18.2% | 37.9% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 38.2% | 25.4% | 25.7% | 2017 | 38.2% | 25.4% | 25.7% | Road | 42.2% | 28.6% | 28.1% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 33.3% | 33.4% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 2017 | 29.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | Road | 35.0% | 12.4% | 20.1% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 7.7% | 12.3% |
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2017 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | Road | 26.4% | 12.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 21.4% | 18.4% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2017 | 33.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | Home | 27.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 12.5% | 30.5% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.7% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 2017 | 35.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | Home | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.5% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2017 | 41.6% | 17.1% | 23.0% | Home | 29.2% | 12.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.2% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 2017 | 33.5% | 9.0% | 12.3% | Road | 32.8% | 12.1% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 10.5% | 25.0% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Years | 34.8% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 2017 | 34.8% | 0.0% | 17.4% | Road | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 17.4% | |||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 2017 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | Road | 28.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 28.6% | 19.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.4% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 2017 | 27.6% | 13.1% | 6.5% | Road | 30.0% | 12.7% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 15.8% | 7.9% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 2017 | 29.0% | 15.5% | 9.5% | Home | 26.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 12.5% | 21.8% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2017 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% | Road | 20.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.1% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 2017 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 11.1% | Home | 29.0% | 9.3% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 2017 | 39.3% | 17.4% | 24.8% | Road | 26.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 27.3% | 21.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 2017 | 31.0% | 15.1% | 7.8% | Home | 32.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 27.8% | 17.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 2017 | 35.6% | 20.3% | 11.0% | Road | 33.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 15.4% | 20.6% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 2017 | 40.0% | 12.5% | 24.0% | Home | 33.6% | 10.1% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 10.0% | 15.7% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 2017 | 36.8% | 14.6% | 22.1% | Road | 31.9% | 11.8% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 20.0% | 11.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 2017 | 26.3% | 13.7% | 8.5% | Home | 30.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 23.1% | 22.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 2017 | 33.1% | 11.6% | 17.2% | Road | 32.0% | 9.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 51.0% | 20.0% | 46.9% |
| Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.0% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 2017 | 26.6% | 11.6% | 8.9% | Home | 32.5% | 13.6% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 0.0% | -10.4% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2017 | 28.4% | 12.5% | 3.0% | Home | 31.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 7.1% | -22.8% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.5% | 21.7% | 19.2% | 2017 | 31.5% | 21.7% | 19.2% | Home | 42.9% | 14.3% | 28.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 37.5% | 20.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.1% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 2017 | 26.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | Home | 26.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 5.3% | 9.3% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.6% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 2017 | 31.7% | 17.2% | 11.6% | Home | 26.7% | 5.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 54.6% | 25.0% | 45.5% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.2% | 15.6% | 2017 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 41.3% | Road | 35.5% | 19.6% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 9.1% | 33.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 2017 | 31.7% | 15.4% | 9.6% | Road | 30.3% | 12.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 16.7% | 5.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 35.9% | 11.8% | 17.8% | RH | 34.9% | 16.0% | 19.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 16.4% | 9.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.3% | 16.3% | 21.1% | LH | 32.8% | 12.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 30.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.1% | 15.6% | 14.4% | RH | 30.7% | 14.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 15.4% | 5.0% |
| Rays | Home | 36.1% | 14.7% | 16.9% | RH | 36.2% | 18.1% | 18.7% | L7Days | 32.4% | 16.7% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 32.9% | 10.5% | 13.8% | RH | 30.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.1% | 12.6% | 18.9% | LH | 43.8% | 16.4% | 26.7% | L7Days | 54.4% | 19.0% | 45.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | RH | 30.1% | 13.8% | 11.1% | L7Days | 46.0% | 14.0% | 33.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.0% | 19.5% | 8.9% | RH | 32.1% | 17.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 36.3% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| Padres | Home | 27.5% | 11.8% | 4.8% | LH | 29.3% | 10.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 36.8% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| Giants | Home | 24.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% | RH | 28.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 30.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 13.0% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Road | 31.3% | 14.1% | 11.8% | RH | 32.2% | 11.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 8.3% | 22.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | RH | 30.4% | 12.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 19.0% | 10.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.6% | 14.5% | 16.7% | LH | 36.4% | 13.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 31.1% | 17.9% | 4.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.3% | 7.2% | 19.3% | RH | 35.6% | 10.1% | 17.8% | L7Days | 29.5% | 13.2% | 4.7% |
| Mets | Road | 38.7% | 17.4% | 21.9% | RH | 35.4% | 13.1% | 18.0% | L7Days | 36.4% | 22.8% | 19.0% |
| Braves | Home | 32.0% | 11.3% | 14.4% | RH | 31.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| Twins | Road | 32.3% | 13.5% | 16.4% | LH | 30.7% | 7.3% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 16.7% | 14.7% |
| Astros | Home | 28.8% | 16.5% | 10.0% | RH | 31.6% | 15.2% | 13.9% | L7Days | 34.5% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | RH | 29.5% | 11.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
| Indians | Home | 31.5% | 14.0% | 15.7% | RH | 34.1% | 13.2% | 18.2% | L7Days | 36.8% | 14.6% | 23.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.3% | 16.8% | 11.7% | RH | 34.0% | 18.1% | 15.0% | L7Days | 36.4% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| Reds | Road | 28.8% | 14.5% | 8.4% | LH | 29.4% | 18.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 28.5% | 21.7% | 2.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 16.5% | 11.8% | RH | 30.7% | 16.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 27.2% | 18.9% | 10.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.9% | 13.9% | 9.4% | RH | 32.5% | 14.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 0.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 12.9% | 9.3% | RH | 30.8% | 13.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 28.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | RH | 30.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.6% | 11.9% | 13.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 40.3% | 17.9% | 27.3% | RH | 36.6% | 16.1% | 20.1% | L7Days | 39.9% | 17.5% | 24.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.4% | 7.3% | 2.25 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 2.62 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.02 | 12.5% | 6.4% | 1.95 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 10.2% | 5.8% | 1.76 | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.42 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 18.4% | 10.7% | 1.72 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.84 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 37.6% | 13.7% | 2.74 | 37.5% | 11.7% | 3.21 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 24.6% | 9.7% | 2.54 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 2.72 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 28.7% | 13.9% | 2.06 | 50.0% | 31.2% | 1.60 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 17.5% | 9.9% | 1.77 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.41 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 2.41 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.6% | 8.4% | 2.21 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 10.0% | 6.9% | 1.45 | 9.2% | 5.7% | 1.61 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.49 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.17 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.27 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 1.92 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.3% | 12.6% | 1.77 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 2.01 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.71 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 1.69 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.04 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.42 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.25 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 2.73 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.08 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 1.79 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.3% | 11.7% | 1.91 | 24.2% | 13.6% | 1.78 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.36 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 2.37 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.02 | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.19 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 22.9% | 11.4% | 2.01 | 27.3% | 14.0% | 1.95 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.50 | 23.8% | 9.8% | 2.43 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.48 | 15.1% | 6.1% | 2.48 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.8% | 9.6% | 2.06 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 1.77 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.39 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.33 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 15.0% | 4.4% | 3.41 | 15.0% | 4.4% | 3.41 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.16 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 1.48 |
We shouldn’t expect Brad Peacock to retain a 42.4 K% in a starting role, but his 12.0 SwStr% is impressive enough.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.52 | 4.6 | 0.08 | 4.4 | -0.12 | 4.43 | -0.09 | 5.57 | 1.05 | 5.87 | 4.59 | -1.28 | 4.46 | -1.41 | 4.33 | -1.54 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 7.17 | 5.12 | -2.05 | 5.23 | -1.94 | 7.15 | -0.02 | 7.68 | 0.51 | 16.2 | 6.12 | -10.08 | 6.9 | -9.3 | 13.78 | -2.42 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.39 | 5.89 | 2.5 | 5.49 | 2.1 | 4.86 | 1.47 | 5.92 | 2.53 | 4.06 | 5.53 | 1.47 | 5.09 | 1.03 | 4.55 | 0.49 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 3.36 | 4.28 | 0.92 | 4.31 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 0.43 | 3.58 | 0.22 | 4.67 | 4.77 | 0.1 | 4.93 | 0.26 | 5.14 | 0.47 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.3 | 2.79 | 0.49 | 2.88 | 0.58 | 2.01 | -0.29 | 3.30 | 1.00 | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 1.95 | -1.05 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 2.57 | 3.73 | 1.16 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 3.56 | 0.99 | 4.21 | 1.64 | 0 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.36 | 3.44 | -0.92 | 3.33 | -1.03 | 3.78 | -0.58 | 4.00 | -0.36 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.93 | 4.8 | 1.87 | 4.86 | 1.93 | 4.1 | 1.17 | 5.46 | 2.53 | 4.06 | 4.66 | 0.6 | 4.94 | 0.88 | 5.03 | 0.97 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 4.32 | 4.51 | 0.19 | 4.56 | 0.24 | 2.46 | -1.86 | 3.73 | -0.59 | 4.32 | 4.52 | 0.2 | 4.56 | 0.24 | 2.46 | -1.86 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.44 | 4.93 | 2.49 | 4.9 | 2.46 | 4.65 | 2.21 | 3.46 | 1.02 | 3.44 | 5.53 | 2.09 | 5.38 | 1.94 | 5.24 | 1.8 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.5 | 5.77 | 1.27 | 5.88 | 1.38 | 5.82 | 1.32 | 6.19 | 1.69 | 5.93 | 6.19 | 0.26 | 6.26 | 0.33 | 6.43 | 0.5 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.65 | 4.2 | -1.45 | 4.07 | -1.58 | 4.32 | -1.33 | 5.69 | 0.04 | 6.29 | 3.68 | -2.61 | 3.47 | -2.82 | 4.17 | -2.12 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 3.31 | 3.19 | -0.12 | 3.26 | -0.05 | 2.84 | -0.47 | 2.51 | -0.80 | 3.76 | 3.7 | -0.06 | 3.58 | -0.18 | 3.18 | -0.58 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.67 | 4.4 | 0.73 | 4.67 | 1 | 3.56 | -0.11 | 3.70 | 0.03 | 3.54 | 4.11 | 0.57 | 4.49 | 0.95 | 3.38 | -0.16 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.98 | 5.25 | -0.73 | 5.48 | -0.5 | 6.24 | 0.26 | 6.96 | 0.98 | 5.72 | 4.99 | -0.73 | 5.06 | -0.66 | 6.45 | 0.73 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.4 | 5.09 | -0.31 | 5.41 | 0.01 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 6.40 | 1.00 | 6.49 | 4.7 | -1.79 | 5.2 | -1.29 | 7.05 | 0.56 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 5.43 | 5.24 | -0.19 | 5.1 | -0.33 | 6.03 | 0.6 | 4.91 | -0.52 | 5.81 | 5.35 | -0.46 | 5.49 | -0.32 | 6.33 | 0.52 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.22 | 4.83 | -0.39 | 5.12 | -0.1 | 4.95 | -0.27 | 7.85 | 2.63 | 3.56 | 5.05 | 1.49 | 5.29 | 1.73 | 4.84 | 1.28 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.12 | 4.4 | 0.28 | 4.79 | 0.67 | 4.98 | 0.86 | 4.85 | 0.73 | 2.73 | 3.88 | 1.15 | 4.04 | 1.31 | 3.67 | 0.94 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.67 | 4.15 | -0.52 | 3.97 | -0.7 | 4.01 | -0.66 | 4.14 | -0.53 | 7.79 | 4.85 | -2.94 | 4.56 | -3.23 | 5.2 | -2.59 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.83 | 5.18 | 0.35 | 5.22 | 0.39 | 4.89 | 0.06 | 6.43 | 1.60 | 7.06 | 5.62 | -1.44 | 5.4 | -1.66 | 6.23 | -0.83 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 3.24 | 3.36 | 0.12 | 3.5 | 0.26 | 3.25 | 0.01 | 3.87 | 0.63 | 1.57 | 2.98 | 1.41 | 2.96 | 1.39 | 1.93 | 0.36 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 4.15 | 5.26 | 1.11 | 5.52 | 1.37 | 5.37 | 1.22 | 7.82 | 3.67 | 4.5 | 5.28 | 0.78 | 5.78 | 1.28 | 4.89 | 0.39 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 3.13 | 4.56 | 1.43 | 4.38 | 1.25 | 5.45 | 2.32 | 6.29 | 3.16 | 3.13 | 4.56 | 1.43 | 4.38 | 1.25 | 5.45 | 2.32 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.95 | 4.33 | 0.38 | 4.19 | 0.24 | 3.73 | -0.22 | 3.64 | -0.31 | 4.6 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 4.26 | -0.34 | 3.6 | -1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 6.97 | 4.89 | -2.08 | 4.98 | -1.99 | 5.54 | -1.43 | 8.40 | 1.43 | 7.71 | 4.57 | -3.14 | 4.5 | -3.21 | 6.45 | -1.26 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 6.59 | 4.73 | -1.86 | 4.63 | -1.96 | 4.74 | -1.85 | 7.63 | 1.04 | 6.59 | 4.74 | -1.85 | 4.63 | -1.96 | 4.74 | -1.85 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.69 | 4.8 | 0.11 | 4.68 | -0.01 | 4.94 | 0.25 | 5.93 | 1.24 | 3.54 | 4.77 | 1.23 | 4.57 | 1.03 | 4.99 | 1.45 |
Andrew Triggs has 11 unearned runs against him, so his ERA may be a bit deceiving, but a SwStr% that projects a better strikeout rate, meaning his estimators could be a touch lower. Throw in his 64.3 LOB% and you can’t really trust anything.
Jhoulys Chacin has a 64.3 LOB% if we want to look at it from an overall aspect, but we’ve mentioned a few blowup starts on the road (NYM, ARI, LAD) this year with a much stronger record in five home starts.
Jordan Montgomery is a fly ball pitcher and very unlikely to sustain a 6.8 HR/FB in that park.
Michael Wacha has a .455 BABIP and 48.3 LOB% over his last three starts, resulting in .331 and 69.9% marks on the year now.
Randall Delgado has benefited from an 82.2 LOB% over three starts.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.285 | 0.317 | 0.032 | 45.6% | 0.236 | 8.2% | 91.3% | 88.6 | 6.30% | 4.70% | 240 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.276 | 0.241 | -0.035 | 42.6% | 0.176 | 5.1% | 88.5% | 89.3 | 7.20% | 5.20% | 152 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.283 | 0.269 | -0.014 | 50.0% | 0.195 | 5.2% | 93.2% | 86.1 | 3.70% | 2.80% | 191 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.001 | 49.7% | 0.173 | 6.3% | 85.3% | 88.3 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 192 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.289 | 0.246 | -0.043 | 46.8% | 0.161 | 13.0% | 75.4% | 86.4 | 1.60% | 0.80% | 62 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.313 | 0.263 | -0.05 | 32.5% | 0.225 | 5.6% | 91.8% | 89.3 | 12.50% | 8.80% | 40 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.306 | 0.311 | 0.005 | 41.6% | 0.221 | 12.2% | 80.7% | 88.5 | 8.00% | 5.10% | 113 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.308 | 0.261 | -0.047 | 31.4% | 0.238 | 15.0% | 87.1% | 87.3 | 7.50% | 5.60% | 227 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 0.302 | 0.261 | -0.041 | 34.8% | 0.217 | 10.0% | 85.2% | ||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.275 | 0.153 | -0.122 | 41.7% | 0.153 | 11.8% | 90.1% | 84.8 | 4.10% | 2.90% | 219 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.299 | 0.219 | -0.08 | 35.0% | 0.2 | 14.1% | 88.1% | 85.5 | 6.60% | 5.40% | 228 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.305 | 0.319 | 0.014 | 52.8% | 0.181 | 10.3% | 88.6% | 86.7 | 6.00% | 4.30% | 200 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.298 | 0.266 | -0.032 | 61.4% | 0.143 | 2.9% | 89.1% | 84.6 | 2.80% | 2.00% | 142 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.279 | 0.287 | 0.008 | 37.3% | 0.174 | 8.2% | 85.6% | 87.1 | 6.80% | 4.60% | 162 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.304 | 0.308 | 0.004 | 30.5% | 0.257 | 13.0% | 89.9% | 88.1 | 9.80% | 7.60% | 214 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.280 | 0.292 | 0.012 | 34.1% | 0.218 | 7.5% | 88.1% | 85.4 | 7.40% | 5.40% | 216 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.326 | 0.258 | -0.068 | 45.2% | 0.207 | 9.4% | 88.1% | 86.4 | 7.90% | 5.50% | 191 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 37.2% | 0.197 | 6.3% | 88.0% | 89.9 | 11.10% | 8.10% | 225 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.286 | 0.264 | -0.022 | 38.5% | 0.139 | 5.6% | 86.6% | 87.8 | 9.50% | 6.40% | 190 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.290 | 0.331 | 0.041 | 44.6% | 0.209 | 2.0% | 83.3% | 84.7 | 7.20% | 4.80% | 152 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.274 | 0.294 | 0.02 | 38.3% | 0.213 | 8.4% | 91.8% | 87.8 | 7.10% | 5.70% | 239 |
| Randall Delgado | ARI | 0.291 | 0.294 | 0.003 | 45.9% | 0.189 | 14.0% | 84.7% | 86.6 | 8.10% | 5.90% | 124 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.282 | 0.286 | 0.004 | 37.1% | 0.113 | 12.5% | 81.6% | 82.2 | 9.00% | 5.30% | 67 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.282 | 0.235 | -0.047 | 47.1% | 0.2 | 4.3% | 93.7% | 86 | 5.50% | 4.30% | 73 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.286 | -0.007 | 45.5% | 0.209 | 8.5% | 84.7% | 86 | 5.50% | 4.00% | 217 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.305 | 0.357 | 0.052 | 44.4% | 0.198 | 10.3% | 90.8% | 87.4 | 7.30% | 4.90% | 164 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.274 | 0.273 | -0.001 | 44.4% | 0.244 | 7.1% | 93.2% | 89.2 | 4.30% | 3.30% | 46 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.307 | 0.323 | 0.016 | 47.5% | 0.206 | 10.8% | 88.9% | 86.6 | 6.70% | 5.00% | 208 |
Brad Peacock has a .286 BABIP, right in line with his defense, over his three starts, while his BABIP profile is tremendous on the season as a whole. His LD rate is up to 24.1% without a popup in his starts (78.7 Z-Contact%).
Joe Biagini has some fluky stuff going on, but not all of it conspires against him. He’s managed a .253 BABIP in six starts on a low line drive rate (12%) without a single popup. While that may regress his future BABIP, his ERA doesn’t necessarily spike because he’s stranded just 58.2% or runners as a starter.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brad Peacock could drop two touchdowns off his strikeout rate as a starter to fall more in line with a 12 SwStr% and still be plenty useful for less than $8K. The Trout-less Angels may actually strike out a bit less and haven’t been that bad, but they’ve got to feel that hurt at some point.
Joe Biagini has been a bonafide top end starter over the last month with the underlying numbers supporting strong results. The matchup in Seattle is not completely ideal, but improves without Cruz and is well compensated for with a cost below $7K. He’s been pitching like an $8-10K pitcher.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (1) was fantastic, optimizing 77 pitches to result in 10 strikeouts after a month on the DL. He’s the only true All-Star on the slate tonight and needs to be strongly considered even with a potential work load limit against the White Sox.
Value Tier Three
Randall Delgado has been good in three starts (13.0 SwStr%, -5.0 Hard-Soft%), but has also been fortunate with a high strand rate and below average offenses in more favorable parks. A return home against a powerful offense could turn the tables, but there are some circumstances still in his favor. He has room to decline while still being productive in his whiff and contact rates, while the Brewers may actually enhance his strikeout rate while still costing less than $6K on DraftKings.
Eric Skoglund may not be much of a prospect, but has held his own as a professional and had a strong debut against Detroit before lasting just two innings against Cleveland. He takes a major step down in class in San Diego in a matchup that’s almost too good to be true tonight.
Andrew Triggs may be in a position to better support an above average SwStr% against the Rays at a low price, especially on DraftKings. They do have some power though and he has been a bit more fly ball oriented over the last month.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jordan Montgomery has been efficient. Even if you don’t buy into the low HR rate, he has the second highest SwStr% on the board (more than three starts) and faces a disappointing Baltimore offense, likely without their annual MVP candidate.
Michael Wacha has been punished in some difficult spots in recent starts. Walks are up and that’s the real issue here because the underlying metrics don’t otherwise look that bad. That offers a potential buying opportunity at home against the Phillies tonight for $7.3K. He’s probably a bit better than that price in this particular spot most times.
Jhoulys Chacin has been good at home this season, is in a strong spot and costs $7K or less on either site. He’s still not someone we should get too excited about though.
Tanner Roark might be a league average pitcher. While many may think that’s an insult after last season, I believe it’s a compliment as his strikeouts came in just a few starts with an ERA well below estimators. He’s been more consistent peripherally this year and may have some value in the $8K range against an over-valued offense outside their cozy home confines.
Brian Johnson opened some eyes in his last start and has run an above average strikeout rate in most stops throughout the minors. He’s in a tough spot at home against a hot Detroit team, but is an affordable SP2 for $6.5K, who could give you more than a lot of arms in that range or below.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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