Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 12th
At first glance, a slate with Clayton Kershaw and Lance McCullers can’t be that bad, but realizing they’re pitching at Coors and Yankee Stadium with Rick Porcello really the only other pitcher with a strikeout rate above 22% and you see where it might go south in a hurry. There have been worse pitching slates this season, but as hard as it is to say this about a Kershaw slate, this may be the toughest full slate of the season. Making it even worse, there are few pitchers we can clearly attack. It’s a massive hodge-podge of mediocrity (that may even be too kind) where it’s going to be difficult to draw lines.
Let’s start our conversation about league averages now. The biggest surprise to someone perhaps not paying attention to it, is that starting pitcher BABIP is down 10 points this year (.298 to .288). For me, another surprise was that starting pitcher ground ball rate was exactly the same as last season (44.3%), while strikeouts (20.2% to 20.5%) were up slightly and HR/FB stayed the same (13.3%).
The ground ball rate thing immediately removes one of my key thoughts on why BABIP may have dropped. More fly balls probably means more popups and more outs. That’s obviously not the case though, and even though a few line drives have become fly balls IFFB rate is actually down from 9.5% to 9.0% this year.
Shifts? They’ve been doing that for years now and starter BABIP has risen every year since 2011 until now. Players are actually hitting the ball harder than ever the last two years (according to Hard%). Perhaps shifts have stopped BABIP from going up higher than it would have with increases in hard contact?
Now that we know what it’s probably not, next time we’ll try to figure out what some of the actual causes are.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.3 | 4.48 | 5.42 | 49.3% | 1.13 | 4.77 | 5.45 | BOS | 94 | 111 | 169 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | -0.6 | 4.6 | 5.34 | 47.1% | 1.11 | 4.37 | 5.27 | OAK | 84 | 101 | 105 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 6.7 | 4.24 | 4.05 | 38.3% | 1.03 | 4.07 | 4.19 | TOR | 78 | 81 | 88 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.2 | 2.34 | 7.15 | 49.0% | 1.39 | 2.57 | 3.44 | COL | 82 | 96 | 92 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.6 | 4.08 | 5.96 | 37.9% | 1.06 | 4.05 | 4.9 | BAL | 102 | 91 | 123 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -4.9 | 4.37 | 5.58 | 34.6% | 1.06 | 4.87 | 6.07 | KAN | 69 | 74 | 80 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 3.7 | 4.87 | 4.95 | 47.0% | 0.98 | 4.61 | STL | 99 | 106 | 119 | |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 9.5 | 4.34 | 6.22 | 41.9% | 1.09 | 4.26 | 4.67 | CLE | 114 | 111 | 86 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -6.5 | 4.51 | 5.84 | 50.5% | 1.11 | 4.81 | 4.1 | TEX | 94 | 99 | 80 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -8.2 | 4.38 | 5.4 | 49.1% | 0.98 | 4.52 | 4.5 | CHW | 94 | 70 | 74 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2.4 | 3.22 | 4. | 54.2% | 1.03 | 3.54 | 1.17 | SEA | 101 | 121 | 137 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 1.6 | 3.77 | 6.63 | 46.5% | 0.93 | 3.55 | 2.9 | CIN | 112 | 105 | 132 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.1 | 4.59 | 5.62 | 40.5% | 1.01 | 4.58 | 5.42 | HOU | 117 | 105 | 118 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.1 | 4.23 | 5.92 | 40.6% | 0.91 | 4.54 | 4.8 | ANA | 102 | 84 | 69 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.9 | 4.89 | 5.24 | 47.3% | 0.94 | 4.76 | 5.39 | ATL | 91 | 91 | 58 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -9.2 | 4.04 | 5.98 | 43.3% | 1.09 | 4.15 | 4.13 | MIN | 106 | 115 | 104 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -2.8 | 3.49 | 5.79 | 51.7% | 1.01 | 3.79 | 2.83 | NYY | 145 | 131 | 117 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -5.1 | 4.61 | 5.51 | 49.3% | 1.02 | 4 | 3.1 | NYM | 122 | 94 | 106 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -3.6 | 3.82 | 6.02 | 44.9% | 1.02 | 4.14 | 6.61 | MIL | 96 | 94 | 80 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -7.6 | 4.03 | 5.79 | 41.0% | 0.91 | 3.49 | 5.9 | DET | 101 | 109 | 96 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -5.3 | 4.6 | 5.76 | 39.7% | 0.98 | 4.57 | 5.19 | SDG | 77 | 82 | 73 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.7 | 4.16 | 5.61 | 38.6% | 0.94 | 3.94 | 3.64 | MIA | 85 | 87 | 122 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -10.9 | 4.03 | 6.09 | 52.7% | 0.98 | 3.46 | 4.66 | CHC | 96 | 86 | 50 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 11.2 | 3.39 | 5. | 34.3% | 1.01 | 4.29 | 3.39 | WAS | 128 | 115 | 102 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.6 | 4.06 | 5.45 | 0.509 | 1.13 | 4.25 | 3.71 | PIT | 70 | 85 | 36 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.2 | 3.74 | 6.44 | 0.436 | 1.13 | 3.9 | 3.18 | TAM | 89 | 109 | 103 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.9 | 4.39 | 5.74 | 0.472 | 0.93 | 4.13 | 4.23 | SFO | 70 | 70 | 65 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -5.8 | 4.23 | 6.04 | 0.48 | 1.01 | 4.09 | 3.75 | PHI | 85 | 97 | 125 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.4 | 4.56 | 5.92 | 0.572 | 1.39 | 4.26 | 4.58 | LOS | 90 | 118 | 151 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -5.5 | 4.78 | 4.31 | 0.45 | 1.13 | 4.38 | 4.73 | ARI | 114 | 99 | 70 |
Christian Bergman has thrown just three innings at the major league level this season after just 24.2 innings last year with the Rockies. He has a career 13.8 K% in 151 major league innings. Getting out of Colorado, he had a 56 GB% at AAA this year in 29 innings to go along with a 15.5 K-BB%. Six of nine batted balls in the majors have been on the ground too this year. We’ll call this interesting just for today as he’s seemed to have developed a cutter. If he can generate ground balls and strikeout at something near a league average rate, he’s in a nice spot in Toronto tonight against the diminished Blue Jays.
Clayton Kershaw is clearly not in the ideal situation in Colorado and the stuff seems not to be what it’s been in the past (above 12.2 SwStr% just once), though most major league pitchers would probably kill for a 28 K%, 24.3 K-BB% and 11.3 SwStr%. He even walked four Padres last time out (seven total on the year). Up until yesterday though, we’ve been made comfortable using opposing pitchers at Coors this year. The Rockies have not been good at home. They’ve been better than usual against LHP though (19.8 HR/FB), but still have a 25.1 K% against them.
Joe Biagini is a nearly 27 year-old reliever who pitched entirely out of the Toronto pen last season. Joey Bags, as I’m sure nobody calls him, lasted 52 solid pitches in his first major league start last week (4 IP – 0 ER – 0 BB – 4 K – 15 BF) and is expected to be stretched out to around 70 today, which could get him through five innings. He really only had one season of AA with the Giants in which he struck out just 15.8% of batters before ending up in the Toronto pen, so it’s going to be difficult to evaluate him as a starter at first, but in 90.1 major league innings with 21.8 K%, he also has a 54.2 GB% and 23.0 Hard%. He still sat around 94 mph in his start and already has a multi-pitch repertoire. He’s not in a good spot against the Mariners tonight.
Johnny Cueto struck out 10 of 28 Reds in his last start, his best one of the season. He’s now gone exactly seven innings in four of seven starts with a solid, but not great 14.9 K-BB%. He has, however, had tremendous issues with contact. His 40.5 GB% is a career low (45.4% career) and his 35.6 Hard% is nearly five points above his previous career high. He has pitched in Colorado and Arizona and has a home park that could hide some of those flaws, but there are some concerning things in his profile. The Cincinnati offense has been pretty darn good this year.
Lance McCullers has the second highest SwStr% on the board. He’s pitching against the top SwStr% and it’s not Kershaw. All three are in terrible spots. He’s played strikeout bingo this year with it though, hitting every number from four to 10, missing only nine (perhaps that’s tonight), while at least repeating the highest number twice. It’s been inconsistent, but the contact quality has been exceptional. His 58.1 GB% with a -2.8 Hard-Soft% (85.8 mph aEV) is nearly Keuchel-esque. As stated though, he might be in the toughest spot on the board behind the Chatwood (vs the Dodgers).
Mike Leake has non-FIP estimators about a quarter of a run better than his career average and still doesn’t strike out enough batters to be daily fantasy useful on most nights, but he does keep the ball on the ground (53.3%) with excellent contact management so far (3.3 Hard-Soft%, 2.5% Barrels/PA) and tonight is not most nights. He’s gone at least seven innings in every start and as strange as it is to call this a positive matchup, we’re in mid-May and the Cubs’ offense has been below average. They strike out more than average with less than average power against RHP.
Rick Porcello has gone at least six innings in six of seven starts and although he’s allowed eight HRs, four came in one start and he hasn’t allowed more than one in any other start. Tampa Bay was the offense that homered four times against him, but they also have a 25.9 K% vs RHP and it’s not like we can omit the highest strikeout rate on the board (23.7%) not at Coors or Yankee Stadium. Make no mistake, the 11.0% Barrels/BBE and 40.4 Hard% are legitimate concerns here though.
Scott Feldman just shutout this Giants’ offense in Cincinnati. He struck out just five of 32 batters, but 66.7% of contact was on the ground with a 12 Hard%. He hasn’t been that good all season, but he’s missing enough bats (19.4 K%, 8.9 SwStr%) and is in the same quality spot in a better park tonight. The Giants got a couple of LH bats back last night (Span and Crawford), but have been the worst offense in the National League, even striking out at a league average pace against RHP. Feldman actually has a bit of a reverse platoon split for his career, which could help him here.
Tanner Roark is a strong contact manager, who has actually been missing bats more consistently this year, if not at a higher rate than last year when most of his strikeouts came in just a few starts. His strikeout rate has been below 8% in just one start this season, though a few unearned runs have his ERA below his estimators. The Phillies haven’t been bad this season, but do strike out a bit.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Danny Duffy (.311 – 75.6% – 4.3) is working with decreased velocity and has seen his SwStr% plummet over his last few starts.
Ervin Santana (.132 – 98% – 11.3) is not someone I can justify paying more than $8K for in Cleveland. He allowed four HRs in his last start.
Matt Garza (.308 – 71.4% – 11.8) has allowed eight runs total through three starts, five earned. He’s looked better than he has in a few years, but has faced Pittsburgh and Atlanta in his last two and has allowed hard contact on over 40% of batted balls. The one thing that could sway me is if the Mets don’t have enough healthy bodies to field a team.
Jesse Hahn (.269 – 70.4% – 2.9) hasn’t been bad, but has been exceptionally fortunate in keeping the ball in the yard and has a 7.8 SwStr% that barely supports his nearly league average strikeout rate. Things could fall apart for him in a tough park, the first truly positive power and run environment he’s pitched in this season.
Dylan Bundy (.256 – 84.8% – 5.3) was a pre-season darling, even here, but has done nothing to continue to merit the affection. You can only hang your low strikeout rate on facing the Red Sox three times for so long. He’s also generated just three strikeouts against the Rays and White Sox as well. While his SwStr rate was above 8% in each of his first four starts, it’s dropped below 7.5% in each of his last three. He’s stopped throwing the slider/cutter that gained him all that attention in the first place, below 17% in three of his last four starts after starting the season above 24% in each of his first three starts, while his velocity has dropped over those four starts as well. Should we be concerned about injury?
Miguel Gonzalez (.294 – 77.6% – 7.0) may not be terrible in this spot, but is not an $8K pitcher.
Jose Urena (.246 – 94.3% – 6.9)
Andrew Cashner (.228 – 81.2% – 7.7)
Alex Cobb (.292 – 78.6% – 14.6) is one of the lowest rated pitchers on the board, taking a 14.4 K% into Boston (16.8 K% vs RHP).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Foltynewicz does have some positives in a league average strikeout rate, but his 12.2 K-BB% is actually down from last year, while both his strikeouts and walks have been all over the place from start to start. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in two of five starts with more than four Ks just twice. His SwStr rate has been above league average just once as well. Volatility is not the worst thing tonight, however, and he just misses the cut in a spot that’s not too bad in Miami. If he surpasses a $7.5K price tag tonight though, it probably won’t be by much.
Patrick Corbin was mauled in his last start in Colorado. He allowed eight runs (two HRs) with just three strikeouts in four innings (22 batters). Sure, that was Coors, but Arizona isn’t that much better. While he’s had a swinging strike rate above 14% in three of his seven starts, it’s been below 8% in each of his other four. The Pirates have been poor, but are predominantly right-handed and have shown some power against LHP with a 14.3 HR/FB to go along with their 11.5 BB%. He and the pitcher above him are pretty much borderline guys for me.
Jordan Montgomery has not dipped below a double digit SwStr% in any start yet, though he hasn’t always turned them into strikeouts. I wanted to consider him aggressively tonight until I saw the price tag above $7K against a dangerous Houston lineup, predominantly from the right-side (6.5 K-BB%, 16.7 HR/FB vs LHP). He’s also walked eight of his last 50 batters.
Matt Shoemaker has been missing bats at a league average rate, much less than he did last year, but has also been getting lit up. He’s allowed nine HRs already.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 11 of 48 major league batters with just one walk, but has also allowed hard contact on over half of batted balls (45.7 Hard-Soft%) with a 91.2 mph aEV and four HRs. He gets a rematch with a Washington lineup that homered three times against him in his last start.
Matt Harvey has something to prove. If we were rating pitchers by narratives, he’d be our top guy today. If we are continuing on our current path of analysis though, the positive would be that when he was last sober he consistently threw baseballs 95 mph for the first time this season. It resulted in two strikeouts. In fact, each of his last two starts were against Atlanta with eight walks and three strikeouts. Once he worked out too hard before he wasn’t scheduled to pitch then he parties too hard before he was scheduled to pitch. At least he knows he’s scheduled to pitch tonight. Of his last start, Harvey said it was the best he’s felt in a long time, while pitching coach Dan Warthen sort of concurred that he threw the ball well, but failed to pitch. The Brewers do have a 24.7 K% vs RHP and it would be a hell of an on-field redemption story, wouldn’t it?
Eddie Butler had just a 13.7 K% and 45.8 GB% in 30.2 AAA innings this season.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 14.7% | 6.0% | Road | 11.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 10.1% | Home | 20.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.3% | 4.7% | Road | 20.9% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 3.4% | Road | 29.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.5% | Home | 21.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.2% | Road | 20.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 13.8% | 8.4% | Road | 16.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.6% | Road | 20.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.0% | Road | 14.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.7% | 8.8% | Road | 17.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 11.4% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.8% | Home | 21.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.5% | Home | 20.7% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 3.6% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.7% | 11.7% | Home | 26.5% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.0% | 5.3% | Road | 16.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.3% | 8.1% | Home | 14.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.6% | 2.8% | Home | 15.2% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 2.2% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.7% | Road | 24.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.6% | Home | 19.1% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.1% | Road | 18.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 15.7% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.0% | Home | 24.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.6% | 6.8% | Home | 17.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 3.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.9% | Road | 21.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.0% | 5.0% | Home | 16.6% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 5.7% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.9% | 2.1% | Road | 21.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.7% | Home | 19.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.1% | 4.2% | Home | 21.9% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 0.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.0% | Road | 18.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.7% | Home | 21.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.5% | 10.4% | Home | 16.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.5% | 13.2% | Road | 24.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 16.1% | 8.2% | RH | 16.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 13.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.0% | 9.1% | RH | 24.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.2% | 7.7% | RH | 22.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 7.0% | LH | 25.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.0% | 6.6% | LH | 25.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.7% |
| Royals | Home | 19.6% | 7.5% | RH | 21.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.9% | 10.9% | RH | 20.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 22.7% | 10.6% | RH | 22.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.8% | 9.1% | RH | 23.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.6% | 8.8% | RH | 24.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 9.2% | RH | 20.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.5% | 11.7% |
| Reds | Road | 17.4% | 8.2% | RH | 20.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Road | 19.2% | 9.2% | LH | 17.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.2% |
| Angels | Home | 18.5% | 7.4% | RH | 21.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.6% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.6% |
| Twins | Road | 19.2% | 10.2% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.5% | 11.8% | RH | 21.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 11.2% |
| Mets | Road | 18.8% | 9.7% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 8.8% | RH | 24.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.8% | 10.4% | RH | 22.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.2% |
| Padres | Road | 25.0% | 6.2% | RH | 24.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.3% | 8.7% | RH | 20.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.2% | 10.1% | RH | 22.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 10.1% | RH | 20.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.4% | 8.7% | LH | 22.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.1% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Road | 28.5% | 11.8% | RH | 25.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 28.2% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 7.0% | RH | 20.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 8.1% | RH | 22.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.9% | 10.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.3% | RH | 24.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 33.9% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 2017 | 36.4% | 14.6% | 23.8% | Road | 30.5% | 17.1% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 7.7% | -4.6% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.6% | 17.2% | 2017 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | Home | 33.3% | 12.7% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | -8.6% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 36.7% | 13.6% | 20.4% | 2017 | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% | Road | 42.0% | 26.3% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 2017 | 31.0% | 15.2% | 10.8% | Road | 29.2% | 14.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 27.3% | 8.1% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 2017 | 29.9% | 4.3% | 15.7% | Home | 37.5% | 10.9% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 0.0% | 18.6% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 2017 | 28.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | Road | 29.7% | 11.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 5.3% | 21.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 34.1% | 21.4% | 19.4% | 2017 | Road | 37.7% | 15.8% | 24.5% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 2017 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 0.0% | Road | 30.9% | 9.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 23.5% | -6.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.4% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 2017 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 10.2% | Road | 28.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 2017 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 8.2% | Road | 34.2% | 17.0% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | -6.6% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2017 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 1.6% | Home | 25.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% | -8.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 17.0% | 20.8% | Home | 26.0% | 3.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 13.3% | 15.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 2017 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 10.1% | Home | 24.4% | 10.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 2017 | 45.6% | 14.5% | 31.6% | Road | 26.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 23.5% | 26.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.1% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 2017 | 26.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | Home | 31.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.1% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 2017 | 37.0% | 11.5% | 28.7% | Home | 33.1% | 19.1% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 10.0% | 23.7% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 26.5% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 2017 | 21.3% | 20.8% | -2.8% | Road | 29.1% | 7.4% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 16.7% | -3.2% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.5% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 2017 | 42.6% | 11.8% | 31.5% | Home | 42.0% | 14.9% | 27.1% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 9.1% | 26.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 2017 | 34.5% | 21.9% | 8.8% | Road | 32.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 28.6% | 2.6% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 2017 | 36.5% | 17.0% | 21.5% | Home | 30.5% | 12.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 13.6% | 24.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 2017 | 29.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | Home | 26.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% | 18.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 2017 | 29.4% | 14.7% | 10.9% | Road | 28.9% | 16.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 30.8% | 11.4% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 2017 | 22.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | Home | 23.8% | 14.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 8.3% | 13.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% | 2017 | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% | Road | 52.9% | 12.5% | 47.0% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 30.8% | 45.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.3% | 15.5% | 19.8% | 2017 | 30.2% | 12.8% | 15.5% | Home | 40.3% | 15.8% | 28.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 25.0% | 21.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 2017 | 40.4% | 13.8% | 22.7% | Home | 33.5% | 9.5% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 10.5% | 21.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 25.1% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 2017 | 28.5% | 10.5% | 6.1% | Road | 25.3% | 14.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | -2.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.3% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 2017 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | Home | 26.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 20.0% | 10.4% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.5% | 16.2% | 9.9% | 2017 | 29.4% | 33.3% | 7.2% | Home | 33.1% | 22.9% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.6% | -0.7% | 2017 | 18.2% | 9.4% | -5.7% | Road | 31.8% | 18.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 38.7% | 7.9% | 19.9% | RH | 38.9% | 10.3% | 21.0% | L7Days | 41.9% | 18.5% | 26.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 37.2% | 9.7% | 17.9% | RH | 36.4% | 14.5% | 20.9% | L7Days | 43.3% | 16.4% | 35.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.4% | 10.3% | 6.7% | RH | 30.2% | 12.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.6% | 18.9% | 6.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.4% | 16.6% | 12.3% | LH | 34.4% | 19.8% | 17.0% | L7Days | 31.1% | 13.0% | 11.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.0% | 15.1% | 17.0% | LH | 34.1% | 11.7% | 15.5% | L7Days | 32.4% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Royals | Home | 30.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | RH | 31.6% | 10.9% | 11.6% | L7Days | 37.2% | 8.2% | 23.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 26.3% | 11.2% | 5.7% | RH | 29.7% | 12.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.5% | 8.8% | 15.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.6% | 15.0% | 16.3% | RH | 34.8% | 12.3% | 18.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.3% | 16.9% | 15.5% | RH | 33.1% | 17.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 28.8% | 16.4% | 5.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | RH | 26.0% | 11.3% | 5.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 28.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | RH | 30.4% | 12.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 28.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% |
| Reds | Road | 30.1% | 13.1% | 6.5% | RH | 29.3% | 12.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.1% | 7.5% |
| Astros | Road | 31.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% | LH | 24.3% | 16.7% | 4.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Angels | Home | 26.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | RH | 28.6% | 12.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 26.9% | 15.7% | 6.0% |
| Braves | Road | 30.3% | 13.6% | 11.1% | RH | 30.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.5% | 7.7% |
| Twins | Road | 33.7% | 12.7% | 18.6% | RH | 34.8% | 14.9% | 19.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.7% | 22.4% | 7.4% | RH | 29.9% | 18.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.8% | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 16.1% | 17.8% | RH | 32.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 36.1% | 6.2% | 13.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.1% | 19.4% | 17.8% | RH | 33.9% | 19.6% | 15.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.9% | 13.7% | 18.5% | RH | 43.3% | 11.7% | 27.8% | L7Days | 38.6% | 11.4% | 25.5% |
| Padres | Road | 30.5% | 15.3% | 9.4% | RH | 28.4% | 16.4% | 5.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 12.0% | -2.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.2% | 14.7% | 10.7% | RH | 29.8% | 13.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 33.3% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | RH | 28.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.9% | 2.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.3% | 16.1% | 17.1% | RH | 31.3% | 15.1% | 14.7% | L7Days | 32.1% | 19.0% | 10.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | LH | 27.6% | 14.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.4% | 3.3% |
| Rays | Road | 31.1% | 14.2% | 8.0% | RH | 33.4% | 15.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 31.7% | 14.9% | 11.3% |
| Giants | Home | 21.0% | 5.6% | -1.0% | RH | 26.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.3% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.9% | 13.3% | 9.5% | RH | 30.0% | 12.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 31.7% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 31.6% | 9.6% | 14.2% | RH | 33.9% | 13.9% | 18.7% | L7Days | 34.7% | 13.8% | 17.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.5% | 15.9% | 25.8% | RH | 35.5% | 15.6% | 20.0% | L7Days | 32.7% | 13.2% | 16.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 14.4% | 7.4% | 1.95 | 11.6% | 5.7% | 2.04 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.8% | 6.2% | 2.06 | 12.8% | 6.2% | 2.06 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 13.3% | 10.0% | 1.33 | 13.3% | 10.0% | 1.33 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 28.0% | 11.3% | 2.48 | 28.1% | 12.2% | 2.30 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 16.0% | 11.5% | 1.39 | 14.0% | 9.5% | 1.47 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 15.9% | 9.8% | 1.62 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 1.53 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | ||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 21.3% | 9.1% | 2.34 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.79 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 19.6% | 7.8% | 2.51 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 2.73 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.89 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 2.75 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.80 | 30.8% | 9.0% | 3.42 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 21.3% | 11.4% | 1.87 | 20.7% | 10.6% | 1.95 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 21.7% | 13.9% | 1.56 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 1.56 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 13.7% | 8.1% | 1.69 | 13.8% | 8.6% | 1.60 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 11.6% | 7.7% | 1.51 | 11.0% | 7.8% | 1.41 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 15.2% | 6.8% | 2.24 | 12.7% | 6.9% | 1.84 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.9% | 12.3% | 2.35 | 27.7% | 11.7% | 2.37 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 13.5% | 7.4% | 1.82 | 12.7% | 7.3% | 1.74 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.01 | 24.0% | 10.2% | 2.35 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 14.3% | 7.0% | 2.04 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.10 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 2.09 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.2% | 7.6% | 2.26 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.16 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 2.31 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.9% | 11.5% | 1.64 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 1.63 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 23.7% | 11.0% | 2.15 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 2.15 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.4% | 8.9% | 2.18 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 1.98 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.9% | 8.5% | 2.34 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 2.51 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 17.7% | 8.9% | 1.99 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 1.72 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.43 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 2.53 |
We’re looking at several pitchers who should have at average to above average strikeout rates today, but many of those guys have other flaws. It would be nice to see, but we find just two pitchers with a SwStr rate above 12% overall and Clayton Kershaw is not one of them.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.56 | 4.46 | 0.9 | 4.24 | 0.68 | 4.47 | 0.91 | 5.60 | 2.04 | 3.6 | 4.79 | 1.19 | 4.53 | 0.93 | 4.33 | 0.73 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 2.63 | 6.24 | 3.61 | 5.82 | 3.19 | 5.18 | 2.55 | 5.74 | 3.11 | 2.63 | 6.24 | 3.61 | 5.82 | 3.19 | 5.18 | 2.55 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 2.45 | 4.19 | 1.74 | 4.93 | 2.48 | 3.57 | 1.12 | 2.15 | -0.30 | 2.45 | 4.19 | 1.74 | 4.93 | 2.48 | 3.57 | 1.12 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.4 | 2.88 | 0.48 | 2.85 | 0.45 | 3.15 | 0.75 | 2.33 | -0.07 | 2.02 | 2.98 | 0.96 | 2.83 | 0.81 | 2.52 | 0.5 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.5 | 4.84 | 1.34 | 4.69 | 1.19 | 3.53 | 0.03 | 3.83 | 0.33 | 4.11 | 5.02 | 0.91 | 4.71 | 0.6 | 3.03 | -1.08 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.17 | 4.77 | 2.6 | 4.67 | 2.5 | 3.44 | 1.27 | 3.70 | 1.53 | 2.33 | 5.26 | 2.93 | 5.12 | 2.79 | 3.93 | 1.6 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | ||||||||||||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.72 | 4.34 | 2.62 | 4.42 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 2.48 | 2.46 | 0.74 | 2.12 | 4.12 | 2 | 4.32 | 2.2 | 4.32 | 2.2 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.03 | 4.24 | 1.21 | 4.16 | 1.13 | 2.89 | -0.14 | 3.28 | 0.25 | 3.03 | 4.22 | 1.19 | 4.04 | 1.01 | 2.96 | -0.07 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.26 | 4.43 | -0.83 | 4.33 | -0.93 | 4.37 | -0.89 | 5.50 | 0.24 | 4.3 | 4.44 | 0.14 | 4.22 | -0.08 | 4.01 | -0.29 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 2.78 | 2.44 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 0.01 | 2.41 | -0.37 | 3.12 | 1.54 | -1.58 | 1.91 | -1.21 | 1.99 | -1.13 | ||
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.5 | 3.95 | -0.55 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 4.46 | -0.04 | 4.10 | -0.40 | 4.5 | 3.88 | -0.62 | 3.65 | -0.85 | 3.96 | -0.54 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.81 | 4.59 | 0.78 | 4.72 | 0.91 | 3.7 | -0.11 | 2.77 | -1.04 | 3.81 | 4.59 | 0.78 | 4.72 | 0.91 | 3.7 | -0.11 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.21 | 5.46 | -0.75 | 5.66 | -0.55 | 6.03 | -0.18 | 5.87 | -0.34 | 7.24 | 5.57 | -1.67 | 5.75 | -1.49 | 6.68 | -0.56 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 1.69 | 4.78 | 3.09 | 5.06 | 3.37 | 4.01 | 2.32 | 5.92 | 4.23 | 1.77 | 4.88 | 3.11 | 5.09 | 3.32 | 4.16 | 2.39 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 7.12 | 3.8 | -3.32 | 3.53 | -3.59 | 3.39 | -3.73 | 7.78 | 0.66 | 6.31 | 4.15 | -2.16 | 3.73 | -2.58 | 3.69 | -2.62 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.4 | 2.93 | -0.47 | 2.67 | -0.73 | 3.26 | -0.14 | 2.00 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 3.39 | -0.29 | 3.14 | -0.54 | 3.33 | -0.35 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 2.55 | 3.62 | 1.07 | 3.44 | 0.89 | 3.31 | 0.76 | 3.93 | 1.38 | 2.55 | 3.63 | 1.08 | 3.44 | 0.89 | 3.31 | 0.76 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 5.14 | 4.96 | -0.18 | 4.69 | -0.45 | 5.77 | 0.63 | 5.11 | -0.03 | 5.72 | 5.18 | -0.54 | 4.9 | -0.82 | 5.78 | 0.06 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 5.21 | 4.66 | -0.55 | 5.22 | 0.01 | 5.97 | 0.76 | 5.38 | 0.17 | 4.4 | 4.31 | -0.09 | 4.91 | 0.51 | 5.19 | 0.79 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.18 | 4.7 | 1.52 | 4.94 | 1.76 | 3.86 | 0.68 | 5.33 | 2.15 | 3.21 | 4.92 | 1.71 | 5.11 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.59 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.55 | 4.23 | -0.32 | 4.33 | -0.22 | 4.61 | 0.06 | 5.76 | 1.21 | 4.5 | 3.71 | -0.79 | 3.74 | -0.76 | 4.45 | -0.05 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 1.79 | 3.8 | 2.01 | 3.53 | 1.74 | 2.53 | 0.74 | 3.05 | 1.26 | 1.95 | 3.81 | 1.86 | 3.57 | 1.62 | 2.69 | 0.74 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.4 | 3.39 | -2.01 | 3.59 | -1.81 | 6.63 | 1.23 | 10.22 | 4.82 | 5.4 | 3.39 | -2.01 | 3.59 | -1.81 | 6.63 | 1.23 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 3.89 | 4.12 | 0.23 | 3.99 | 0.1 | 3.99 | 0.1 | 6.04 | 2.15 | 4.6 | 3.64 | -0.96 | 3.45 | -1.15 | 4.18 | -0.42 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.95 | 3.55 | -0.4 | 3.8 | -0.15 | 3.97 | 0.02 | 3.77 | -0.18 | 3.77 | 3.61 | -0.16 | 3.95 | 0.18 | 4.57 | 0.8 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 3.76 | 4.54 | 0.78 | 4.26 | 0.5 | 3.98 | 0.22 | 3.00 | -0.76 | 4.2 | 4.95 | 0.75 | 4.54 | 0.34 | 3.96 | -0.24 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.46 | 4.21 | 0.75 | 4.03 | 0.57 | 3.79 | 0.33 | 2.78 | -0.68 | 3.23 | 4.37 | 1.14 | 3.98 | 0.75 | 4.26 | 1.03 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.74 | 4.35 | -0.39 | 3.87 | -0.87 | 5.52 | 0.78 | 4.15 | -0.59 | 4.18 | 4.76 | 0.58 | 4.23 | 0.05 | 5.16 | 0.98 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 6.33 | 5.02 | -1.31 | 5.26 | -1.07 | 4.73 | -1.6 | 8.90 | 2.57 | 4.97 | 4.49 | -0.48 | 4.83 | -0.14 | 4.33 | -0.64 |
Mike Leake has been decent, but is not the pitcher his ERA portrays. He’s been enhanced by .246 BABIP, 82 LOB% and 3.1 HR/FB. St Louis has been known to severely suppress power in the cooler months, but he had a 13.5 HR/FB in his first year as a Cardinal, the same has his career 13.4 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.277 | 0.292 | 0.015 | 47.5% | 0.234 | 7.3% | 92.6% | 88.9 | 6.30% | 5.00% | 143 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.279 | 0.228 | -0.051 | 49.4% | 0.185 | 3.8% | 90.9% | 85.1 | 3.70% | 2.60% | 81 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 0.295 | 0.091 | -0.204 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 81.3% | 73.6 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.291 | 0.254 | -0.037 | 46.8% | 0.167 | 10.9% | 85.1% | 86 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 129 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.288 | 0.311 | 0.023 | 43.2% | 0.22 | 8.7% | 86.3% | 87.5 | 4.50% | 3.30% | 134 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.293 | 0.256 | -0.037 | 31.3% | 0.261 | 19.3% | 88.1% | 86.9 | 5.90% | 4.50% | 136 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.296 | ||||||||||
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.277 | 0.132 | -0.145 | 41.5% | 0.136 | 15.1% | 89.5% | 83.3 | 3.40% | 2.30% | 119 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.272 | 0.269 | -0.003 | 45.8% | 0.215 | 8.6% | 90.2% | 88.2 | 5.60% | 3.90% | 108 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.288 | 0.291 | 0.003 | 52.5% | 0.164 | 7.9% | 90.0% | 86.7 | 5.70% | 4.20% | 122 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 61.0% | 0.169 | 7.7% | 91.2% | 83.2 | 1.70% | 1.20% | 60 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.309 | 0.283 | -0.026 | 40.5% | 0.237 | 10.6% | 85.7% | 87 | 7.40% | 5.30% | 135 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.280 | 0.299 | 0.019 | 40.5% | 0.177 | 9.1% | 79.5% | 86.3 | 5.10% | 3.30% | 79 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.01 | 22.5% | 0.279 | 14.5% | 86.4% | 89.1 | 12.30% | 9.60% | 114 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.273 | 0.246 | -0.027 | 41.2% | 0.162 | 10.3% | 93.0% | 84.9 | 5.60% | 4.70% | 71 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.306 | 0.362 | 0.056 | 50.5% | 0.252 | 0.0% | 90.5% | 90 | 3.70% | 3.00% | 108 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.273 | 0.311 | 0.038 | 58.1% | 0.19 | 4.2% | 86.9% | 85.8 | 7.40% | 4.60% | 108 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.320 | 0.308 | -0.012 | 47.2% | 0.208 | 11.8% | 88.2% | 88.9 | 7.40% | 5.60% | 54 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.312 | 0.236 | -0.076 | 48.6% | 0.225 | 6.3% | 89.7% | 85.2 | 7.10% | 5.40% | 113 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.283 | 0.242 | -0.041 | 40.2% | 0.103 | 5.7% | 87.6% | 89.6 | 9.30% | 6.10% | 107 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.268 | 0.294 | 0.026 | 38.8% | 0.171 | 8.8% | 91.7% | 87.6 | 7.70% | 6.00% | 130 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.289 | 0.299 | 0.01 | 42.7% | 0.191 | 11.8% | 85.0% | 86.7 | 8.70% | 6.10% | 92 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.303 | 0.246 | -0.057 | 53.3% | 0.205 | 0.0% | 90.0% | 86.4 | 3.30% | 2.50% | 123 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.285 | 0.452 | 0.167 | 34.3% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 90.0% | 91.2 | 11.40% | 8.30% | 35 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.298 | 0.306 | 0.008 | 48.0% | 0.213 | 12.8% | 83.0% | 88.9 | 5.50% | 4.00% | 128 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 39.0% | 0.184 | 10.3% | 85.8% | 89.8 | 11.00% | 7.90% | 136 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.267 | 0.268 | 0.001 | 42.0% | 0.241 | 10.5% | 85.7% | 84.3 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 116 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.290 | 0.256 | -0.034 | 46.6% | 0.22 | 10.8% | 87.8% | 86 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 121 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.280 | 0.239 | -0.041 | 57.3% | 0.21 | 3.7% | 92.5% | 84.8 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 126 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.302 | 0.353 | 0.051 | 43.0% | 0.198 | 12.5% | 87.8% | 84.7 | 4.50% | 2.90% | 88 |
Ervin Santana has a .132 BABIP. The profile is nice, but we can’t expect the LD% to stay that low. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a qualified pitcher reach mid-May with a BABIP that low.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Scott Feldman is probably only a tier two or three pitcher on a normal day, which still speaks incredibly well for him, but also volumes about this slate. He’s not traditionally what we look for in our top pitcher, but he’s been decent and appears to be in a pretty damn good spot tonight, even if the San Francisco lineup should be a bit healthier tonight.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1) is in a rough spot in Colorado, but it’s a spot pitchers have been able to navigate and come out of with some value very often considering the price drop. The issue here is that Kershaw hasn’t entirely been Kershaw (please don’t be injured). He wasn’t terrible in his first start in Coors, but did allow three HRs with just six strikeouts before dominating the Rockies at home (10 Ks – 27 BF). Looking around at the rest of this group, today doesn’t appear the ideal day to abandon Kershaw.
Christian Bergman is one of the lowest cost pitchers on the board and today’s the kind of day to speculate when we see something worth speculating on. He’s transformed into a ground ball pitcher this year, perhaps due to a new pitch, with solid peripherals. Maybe he can get off to a solid start for the Mariners in a favorable spot in Toronto.
Value Tier Three
Lance McCullers (2) has dominated contact and occasionally dominated with strikeouts too. At a cost still below $10K his placement here has less to do with than it does the Yankees (22.4 HR/FB at home, 18.2 HR/FB vs RHP).
Joe Biagini is a converted reliever in a tough spot in Toronto against the Mariners. He may only go five innings, but costs near the minimum and looked good in his first start. He may be able to keep the ball on the ground and generate a few strikeouts.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk. .
Mike Leake is here because he’s been better than expected (even by peripherals), while the Cubs have been much worse. He probably doesn’t make the cut at this price on most days.
Rick Porcello is generating way too much hard contact for a high priced pitcher without an elite strikeout rate, but the highest strikeout rate outside Coors or Yankee Stadium is going to have to play today.
Tanner Roark usually comes at a cost beyond what we’re willing to pay for contact management for a guy with a near average ground ball rate. That would probably be the case today too if we had a better overall group, but we don’t and he is in a spot where me might pop an above average strikeout rate tonight.
Johnny Cueto is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and has been pitching nothing like an elite arm this year. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact in the air and already eight HRs this season. I would really rather fade him against a Cincinnati offense that’s not that bad, but he did strike out 10 of them in his last start (with another two HRs), so perhaps he’s getting back on track and the park can hide some batted ball flaws.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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