Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 26th
The difficulty in tonight’s full slate is the double-header in Chicago that starts at five. Players will not know lineups for the second game before lock. That’s more of a hitting problem than a pitching one, but there might be some interest in one of the pitchers in that game no matter the lineup (hint: it ain’t Pelfrey). It would appear DraftKings has even moved the game off the main slate, while FanDuel (now with late swap) maintains it.
This is one of the deeper slates we’ve seen this year. We might be omitting some pitchers who would have certainly been playable yesterday or even most days this year. A case could be made for nearly half the pitchers on the board.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.7 | 4.59 | 5.21 | 29.1% | 1.03 | 5 | 6.63 | TOR | 85 | 88 | 97 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 11.1 | 3.5 | 5.71 | 52.2% | 0.96 | 2.84 | 4.04 | CIN | 99 | 102 | 120 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | -1.3 | 3.68 | 5.76 | 52.7% | 0.89 | 2.62 | 1.9 | CHC | 91 | 113 | 132 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 2.6 | 4.87 | 6. | 46.1% | 1.39 | 4.97 | 5.16 | STL | 93 | 102 | 71 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 4.3 | 4.99 | 4.83 | 47.7% | 0.98 | 6.06 | CHW | 95 | 82 | 121 | |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -10.2 | 3.69 | 6.26 | 55.6% | 1.39 | 3.9 | 4.18 | COL | 78 | 80 | 118 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -5.8 | 4.6 | 4.79 | 42.7% | 0.97 | 5.63 | 4.2 | NYM | 115 | 95 | 104 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.1 | 3.36 | 6.24 | 45.1% | 1.04 | 3.95 | 3.76 | MIN | 103 | 113 | 134 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.74 | 33.5% | 0.94 | 5.17 | 3.99 | ANA | 78 | 92 | 104 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.4 | 4.18 | 5.65 | 37.0% | 1.13 | 4.74 | 3.73 | SEA | 92 | 73 | 41 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 11 | 4.9 | 5.45 | 32.4% | 1.04 | 5.33 | 6.58 | TAM | 101 | 88 | 103 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8.5 | 4.03 | 5.81 | 35.5% | 1.09 | 4.78 | 8.77 | CLE | 105 | 105 | 118 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -4.1 | 3.24 | 6.28 | 44.9% | 0.97 | 3.42 | 3.14 | PIT | 92 | 86 | 103 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 5.4 | 3.84 | 5.91 | 57.8% | 0.93 | 4.46 | 3.46 | SFO | 74 | 72 | 73 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.4 | 3.41 | 6.55 | 53.1% | 0.89 | 3.92 | 3.7 | LOS | 121 | 112 | 94 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -4.1 | 3.97 | 5.76 | 44.2% | 0.94 | 4.47 | 3.79 | MIA | 79 | 84 | 107 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -3.5 | 4.25 | 5.47 | 43.7% | 0.94 | 4.22 | 4.36 | BAL | 106 | 98 | 90 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -5.8 | 4.33 | 5.91 | 45.9% | 1.02 | 4.22 | ARI | 76 | 113 | 120 | |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -7.8 | 4.46 | 5.93 | 51.4% | 1.01 | 4.61 | 3.88 | NYY | 132 | 122 | 94 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.4 | 3.97 | 5.74 | 44.2% | 0.94 | 4.05 | 4.49 | HOU | 113 | 120 | 92 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -9.1 | 3.84 | 5.71 | 60.9% | 1.01 | 3.6 | 2.33 | WAS | 124 | 110 | 85 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0 | 3.7 | 6.32 | 48.5% | 1.01 | 3.58 | 5.11 | OAK | 86 | 109 | 127 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 2.1 | 4.85 | 5.11 | 37.2% | 0.93 | 4.55 | 6.16 | ATL | 96 | 96 | 130 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -6 | 2.85 | 6.75 | 33.9% | 1.01 | 2.98 | 3.16 | SDG | 81 | 84 | 77 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | -2.4 | 4.47 | 4.89 | 0.474 | 1.03 | 4.95 | 5.62 | TEX | 82 | 98 | 86 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -8.8 | 4.71 | 4.46 | 0.392 | 1.09 | 5.02 | 4.08 | KAN | 71 | 78 | 85 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -2.7 | 5 | 5.24 | 0.497 | 0.98 | 5.01 | 4.99 | DET | 90 | 102 | 91 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.7 | 4.69 | 5.12 | 0.362 | 0.96 | 5 | 6.92 | PHI | 102 | 89 | 44 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.3 | 5.02 | 5.36 | 0.457 | 1.13 | 4.87 | 4.56 | BOS | 92 | 102 | 122 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5 | 4.16 | 5.43 | 0.537 | 1.02 | 3.95 | 4.98 | MIL | 99 | 98 | 69 |
Aaron Nola returned from the DL to throw seven one run innings with five strikeouts in Pittsburgh and has had a ground ball rate above 50% in all of his starts except for the last one before going on the DL. He has a -1.5 Hard-Soft% (2.1% Barrels/PA) with league average walk and strikeout rates, which I’d expect might improve as he gets deeper into his season. He welcomes Cincinnati tonight, an offense that has been unexpectedly average.
Alex Wood only struck out four Marlins in his last start, dropping his season strikeout rate just below 30%, but that’s not an unexpected development, while he still generated a 12.5 SwStr%. He only compensated for the lack of strikeouts with an 86.4 GB% and 13.6 Hard%, while pitching a shutout into the eighth inning. He now has a 67.6 GB% to go along with a 20.4 Hard% (1.1% Barrels/PA). The argument can be made that he’s been the best pitcher on that staff this year. The Cubs are finally turning it on (25.9 HR/FB last seven days) and will be his toughest test to date. They have a 13.3 BB% and 18.8 HR/FB vs LHP, along with a 114 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers.
Buck Farmer is only available on FanDuel as DraftKings has made it easier on players who won’t know the lineups in the second half of the DH before lock. While noting that the White Sox are so terrible against RHP that the lineup can only really get worse, we should note Farmer’s 19.4 K-BB% at AAA this season as he’s cut down on his walks. He’s posted above average K-BB marks in AAA in the past and then walked the park upon promotion, but these are the best walk and K-BB marks above A ball.
Chris Archer has gone at least six innings with at least 11 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. His 28.6 K% is only fourth among those with more than a few starts today though (that’s how deep this board is). The concern (and there aren’t many with that many strikeouts) is that his hard hit rate has been above 40% in three of those four starts and also above 40% in seven of his last eight. Overall, his 38.6 Hard% is the highest of his career, though his 9.5 HR/FB is below his career rate because despite the 89 mph aEV, he’s allowed barrels on just 6.6% of BBEs. Believe it or not, Minnesota represents one of the more difficult matchups on the board in a positive run environment tonight. A lot of their prowess is due to patience (double digit walk rates at home and against RHP), while Archer has a walk rate just below 9% this year.
Eduardo Rodriguez is quietly putting together a quality season. He’s gone six straight starts with at least six innings (eight in his last start) with no more than three runs. His 27.8 K% probably has some stealth on this board. He’s also done tremendous work on his walk rate. After walking 12 of his first 70 batters, he’s walked just six of his last 122 (4.9%), giving him a 21.1 K-BB% over the last 30 days. The 32 GB% in Fenway might be a concern, but he’s handled contact well (26.8 Hard%, 86.6 mph aEV). Seattle has been surprisingly awful. They now have a bottom five wRC+ against LHP despite a 7.7 K-BB% due to poor contact quality (5.5 HR/FB, 4.4 Hard-Soft%). They are also last in wRC+ as a team over the last week (16.5 K-BB%, 6.0 HR/FB).
Jacob deGrom was the top pitcher in action on any slate yesterday. His 15.3 SwStr% and his 32.3 K% are still tops. He’s struck out at least nine in five of his last seven starts. His walk (9.8%) and hard contact (36.3%) rates are the highest of his career, while he’s already almost half way to his career high in HRs (16 with seven this year). He takes a small step up in competition because the Padres are really the only NL offense Pittsburgh can definitively make that claim against so far. It’s certainly not a poor spot, as the Pirates struggle to make good contact, but they strike out just 17.9% of the time against RHP.
Jake Arrieta is still producing strikeouts at an above average rate and a reduced walk rate has his 18.5 K-BB% not too far below his excellent 2015. He’s even coming off of his highest velocity start of the season (though still down from last season). One issue may be that his cutter is failing to produce ground balls at an elite level this year. He reached 50% for the first time since his first start last time out and has only gone more than six innings once this season. Joe Maddon is a bullpenner with his non-elite arms and we’re not sure he is one of those anymore. He’s failed to see the order a fourth time in any start this season. He’s facing a tough Dodger offense at home (22.0 Hard-Soft%) and vs RHP (20.8 Hard-Soft%), but at least gets a park upgrade to deal with it and still does have an 18.5 K-BB% that means something.
Luis Perdomo lasted all of three innings in his last start, striking out just two of the 22 batters he faced, while 12 reached base. While the 55.6 Hard% is not at all ideal, he still generated over 60% of his contact on the ground, something he’s done in each of his seven starts this season. Overall, we’re still looking at a 15.2 K-BB% with a 69 GB% and reasonable contact quality (28.3 Hard%, 87.8 mph aEV, 3.7% Barrels/PA). He’s certainly not in a good spot against a Washington offense that makes quality contact and doesn’t strike out much, but his GB rate jumps to 79.4% against RHBs, meaning that he really has to only carefully navigate a couple of spots in the order and can still give us something useful here.
Max Scherzer is doing Max Scherzer things. He has allowed nine HRs over his last six starts. Sometimes that happens, but generally not with enough runners on base to cause real problems and he can usually wipe it out (from a daily fantasy perspective) with a strikeout or two. He’s in a great spot against an offense that strikes out quite a bit (24.5 K% vs RHP).
Zack Godley has struck out at batters at a league average clip over four starts despite a 13.8 SwStr% that may not be all that fluky. He now has a career 11.8 SwStr% in 137 innings with a 53.7 GB% (up to 65.1% this year). He does need to convert more of those swings and misses into strikeouts and be more consistent in his walk rate (eight of 10 in two starts), but there’s certainly some upside in this arm. He’s in a dangerous, yet high upside spot tonight. The Brewers have a 38.5 Hard% at home and 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but the latter comes with a 24 K%.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Jaime Garcia (.247 – 70.7% – 14.0) struck out a season high eight Nationals in eight innings his last time out and really has been profiling for a higher K% in his SwStr% all along. Give him that increase in K% to something closer to league average and his estimators are probably not so far separated from his ERA around four. On a lesser board, we might even consider him more favorably for right around $7K with potentially the best spot on the board in San Francisco.
Dan Straily (.188 – 71.8% – 10.0) finally popped more than five strikeouts for the second time with eight against the Dodgers last time out. Now, 46% of his strikeouts have come in two of his nine starts. He’s not in a terrible spot against the Angels, but they do have a 13.8 BB% over the last week, while he has an 11.2% mark on the season. Occasionally, you may get some strikeouts, but you’re generally paying $7.5K or more for BABIP.
Mike Clevinger (.171 – 82.4% – 0) has impressively missed lots of bats in his three starts, but a strikeout rate near 30% still generates just a league average 12.3 K-BB%. A few more like his last start in Houston (7 IP – 0 ER – 2 BB – 8 K – 24 BF) and we can talk.
Ian Kennedy (.198 – 76.7% – 13.7) has the highest walk rate of his career (11.7%), which matches his highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board.
Hector Santiago (.268 – 79.7% – 9.7) has a board worst 90.2 mph aEV and just a 6.5 K-BB%.
Antonio Senzatela (.252 – 78.1% – 12.5)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jesse Chavez has been declining in recent starts with a rise in ERA and estimators and a decline in K% an SwStr%. He may still have some value in a nice spot in Miami for around $7K, but is really unnecessary on this board, as he may eventually find his way back to the bullpen soon.
Carlos Martinez is not automatically disqualified for pitching at Coors tonight. Pitchers have been successful there this year, but the Rockies are swinging the bats a bit better and he’s got about half the board ahead of him in this spot tonight. He may be fine, but several other arms are more appealing in better spots tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka may have much better numbers underneath than on the surface, but there certainly seems to be a problem here. His hard contact rate is still around league average (32%, same as last year, right on his career mark), but his 11.1% Barrels/BBE is not something we can trust in Yankee Stadium against an Oakland lineup with some pop right now.
Junior Guerra lasted all of three innings in his first start before hitting the DL with a calf issue. His two minor league rehab starts were unspectacular and this is not really a favorable spot for his return.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.4% | Road | 22.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 8.9% |
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.3% | 6.2% | Home | 27.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.4% | Home | 27.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 5.8% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.0% | 8.0% | Home | 14.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 11.7% | Road | 17.7% | 17.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.3% | Road | 23.9% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.7% | Home | 14.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.9% | Road | 24.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 15.1% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.1% | 9.7% | Home | 20.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 9.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 8.1% | Home | 23.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 4.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.5% | Home | 18.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.1% | Road | 21.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.2% | Road | 21.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 7.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.3% | Road | 18.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.5% | Road | 20.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.9% | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.2% | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 9.1% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.5% | Home | 19.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.8% | 6.4% | Road | 13.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.6% | Road | 22.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.9% | Road | 18.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 2.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.7% | 4.6% | Home | 22.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.6% | 8.5% | Home | 19.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 5.4% | Home | 33.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 6.3% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.8% | 10.3% | Home | 17.1% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 13.5% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 23.2% | 13.4% | Home | 22.0% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 15.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.1% | 7.3% | Home | 10.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.5% | Road | 14.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 18.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.6% | 10.2% | Road | 16.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.9% | Road | 17.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.8% | 7.9% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Road | 18.1% | 7.8% | RH | 20.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.2% | 10.3% | LH | 21.2% | 13.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.2% | 8.1% | RH | 20.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 8.9% | RH | 22.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.8% | 6.7% | RH | 21.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Road | 19.4% | 9.3% | RH | 19.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.1% | 12.0% | RH | 21.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.9% | 9.5% | RH | 20.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.4% | 8.5% | LH | 19.1% | 11.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.5% |
| Rays | Road | 29.5% | 10.5% | LH | 28.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 27.8% | 10.3% |
| Indians | Home | 20.1% | 10.4% | RH | 21.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.1% | 10.2% | RH | 17.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 6.1% | LH | 20.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.0% | 9.6% | RH | 21.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 7.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.4% | 8.1% | RH | 20.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.4% | 6.5% | RH | 21.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.9% | 8.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.2% | 10.9% | RH | 22.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.3% | 8.0% | RH | 18.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.3% | 9.7% | RH | 19.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.6% | 6.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.7% | 9.3% | RH | 23.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.5% |
| Braves | Road | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.7% |
| Padres | Road | 25.2% | 7.4% | RH | 24.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.1% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.8% | 7.8% | RH | 22.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 4.5% |
| Royals | Road | 22.0% | 6.5% | RH | 21.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.3% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 25.4% | 10.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.2% | 9.5% | RH | 22.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 9.4% | RH | 18.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 11.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.0% | 9.1% | RH | 24.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 38.2% | 16.8% | 18.8% | 2017 | 38.6% | 16.7% | 14.9% | Road | 37.9% | 15.2% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 29.2% | 14.3% |
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2017 | 25.4% | 5.9% | -1.5% | Home | 28.6% | 21.4% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | -21.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 2017 | 20.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | Home | 23.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 26.5% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 2017 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 11.2% | Home | 27.3% | 14.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 27.3% | 32.2% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 16.3% | 9.4% | 2017 | Road | 21.2% | 6.7% | -3.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 2017 | 31.2% | 14.9% | 10.4% | Road | 33.6% | 9.1% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 2017 | 32.0% | 6.4% | 17.2% | Home | 34.0% | 12.5% | 21.3% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 12.5% | -3.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 2017 | 38.6% | 9.5% | 23.5% | Road | 35.1% | 19.0% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 51.9% | 28.6% | 40.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 2017 | 35.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | Home | 33.7% | 8.2% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 11.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 2017 | 26.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | Home | 26.2% | 15.8% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 36.3% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 2017 | 35.6% | 9.7% | 20.0% | Home | 38.2% | 13.0% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 28.6% | 19.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.5% | 13.7% | 20.0% | 2017 | 35.9% | 13.7% | 18.4% | Road | 33.5% | 15.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 2017 | 36.3% | 15.9% | 14.8% | Road | 35.2% | 14.0% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 11.1% | 17.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.3% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 2017 | 29.6% | 14.0% | 3.3% | Road | 30.6% | 14.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 22.2% | -2.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 2017 | 32.0% | 14.3% | 8.0% | Road | 29.7% | 14.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 2017 | 35.6% | 18.3% | 20.9% | Road | 37.9% | 14.5% | 24.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 28.6% | 30.0% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 32.6% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 2017 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 13.4% | Home | 30.1% | 13.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 11.1% | 25.8% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 2017 | 16.7% | 50.0% | -33.3% | Home | 36.7% | 8.1% | 16.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 32.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | Road | 31.3% | 14.3% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 14.3% | 2.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 2017 | 33.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | Road | 33.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 18.2% | 25.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.0% | 21.0% | 16.8% | 2017 | 28.3% | 16.7% | 14.1% | Road | 32.2% | 22.0% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 40.0% | 38.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.9% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.7% | 24.5% | 14.2% | Home | 35.0% | 17.2% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 56.5% | 58.3% | 39.1% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 2017 | 31.4% | 8.2% | 14.7% | Home | 31.0% | 11.1% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 46.3% | 5.9% | 34.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 2017 | 27.0% | 12.9% | 7.1% | Home | 26.9% | 10.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 13.3% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.7% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 2.0% | Home | 34.6% | 12.5% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 16.7% | 8.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 2017 | 22.9% | 0.0% | 8.6% | Home | 29.1% | 6.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 11.4% | 2.9% | Home | 33.9% | 18.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 35.3% | 14.4% | 21.8% | 2017 | 35.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% | Road | 38.4% | 12.5% | 26.8% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% | 8.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 2017 | 32.1% | 14.9% | 14.8% | Road | 29.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 30.8% | 30.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.1% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2017 | 29.0% | 14.3% | 10.2% | Road | 21.1% | 13.3% | -6.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 12.5% | 2.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.4% | 10.8% | 9.5% | RH | 30.6% | 14.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 30.4% | 18.2% | 9.4% |
| Reds | Road | 28.9% | 11.3% | 7.9% | RH | 29.1% | 12.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.8% | 16.1% | 13.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.6% | 12.6% | 10.2% | LH | 29.7% | 18.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 38.8% | 25.9% | 24.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.1% | 10.0% | 15.2% | RH | 30.7% | 11.9% | 11.6% | L7Days | 31.8% | 4.7% | 14.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.7% | 9.4% | 4.4% | RH | 27.9% | 13.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 33.9% | 22.6% | 11.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.1% | 16.6% | 12.0% | RH | 30.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 28.6% | 16.4% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 16.0% | 19.5% | RH | 33.6% | 11.7% | 15.8% | L7Days | 38.8% | 11.1% | 22.3% |
| Twins | Home | 32.6% | 10.9% | 15.9% | RH | 33.4% | 13.9% | 17.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 11.3% | 17.8% |
| Angels | Road | 32.1% | 11.1% | 13.8% | RH | 30.3% | 12.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 38.0% | 12.5% | 23.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | LH | 26.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 6.0% | 13.5% |
| Rays | Road | 35.2% | 17.7% | 15.9% | LH | 34.5% | 11.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 41.6% | 15.8% | 28.6% |
| Indians | Home | 31.9% | 13.7% | 15.4% | RH | 34.1% | 12.1% | 17.5% | L7Days | 32.7% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 28.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | RH | 28.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 26.6% | 11.1% | -2.0% |
| Giants | Home | 23.7% | 8.3% | 1.1% | LH | 26.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 36.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.5% | 15.7% | 22.0% | RH | 35.2% | 13.4% | 20.8% | L7Days | 36.1% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.5% | 14.2% | 11.2% | RH | 31.0% | 12.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.9% | 15.6% | 18.9% | RH | 30.3% | 14.9% | 11.0% | L7Days | 26.4% | 17.5% | 2.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.7% | 15.1% | 11.1% | RH | 38.2% | 17.8% | 23.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 22.0% | 21.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.1% | 22.2% | 9.0% | RH | 31.1% | 18.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 37.8% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| Astros | Home | 27.5% | 16.5% | 8.1% | RH | 30.9% | 14.6% | 12.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 17.1% | 7.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.8% | 15.5% | 15.7% | RH | 31.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L7Days | 26.8% | 11.9% | 3.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.7% | 11.0% | 18.4% | RH | 36.4% | 16.0% | 20.7% | L7Days | 36.0% | 17.9% | 20.0% |
| Braves | Road | 31.0% | 12.2% | 12.5% | RH | 30.9% | 11.1% | 13.0% | L7Days | 35.2% | 14.5% | 20.9% |
| Padres | Road | 30.9% | 15.1% | 9.4% | RH | 28.9% | 14.1% | 6.2% | L7Days | 30.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.7% | 14.1% | 11.0% | RH | 33.7% | 14.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 40.4% | 12.9% | 19.9% |
| Royals | Road | 31.6% | 13.9% | 12.0% | RH | 31.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 36.0% | 18.3% | 20.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.5% | 12.7% | 19.3% | RH | 42.7% | 12.3% | 26.9% | L7Days | 36.0% | 13.2% | 15.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | RH | 29.5% | 10.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 36.2% | 7.5% | 17.3% | RH | 35.7% | 9.7% | 18.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.5% | 19.5% | 17.5% | RH | 33.9% | 19.2% | 14.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.4% | -3.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 20.9% | 9.3% | 2.25 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.93 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 20.8% | 11.5% | 1.81 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 2.34 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 29.9% | 12.1% | 2.47 | 33.3% | 12.6% | 2.64 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 15.0% | 6.3% | 2.38 | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.06 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | ||||||
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.8% | 10.9% | 2.37 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 18.3% | 11.8% | 1.55 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 1.82 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 28.6% | 12.7% | 2.25 | 34.1% | 13.6% | 2.51 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 24.5% | 11.6% | 2.11 | 21.2% | 11.2% | 1.89 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 27.8% | 12.9% | 2.16 | 25.8% | 11.6% | 2.22 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 15.4% | 8.0% | 1.93 | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.16 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.8% | 9.4% | 2.21 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 2.25 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 32.3% | 15.3% | 2.11 | 32.8% | 13.4% | 2.45 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 15.9% | 10.1% | 1.57 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 1.71 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 24.8% | 10.2% | 2.43 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 2.28 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 18.1% | 10.1% | 1.79 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 1.71 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 36.4% | 15.2% | 2.39 | |||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 16.5% | 7.4% | 2.23 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 2.33 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 15.9% | 9.3% | 1.71 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.95 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.16 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 2.16 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 17.8% | 12.7% | 1.40 | 16.5% | 12.1% | 1.36 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 15.6% | 5.8% | 2.69 | 15.1% | 5.5% | 2.75 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.2% | 15.1% | 2.13 | 32.8% | 14.4% | 2.28 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 15.8% | 8.3% | 1.90 | 15.8% | 8.3% | 1.90 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 29.2% | 12.2% | 2.39 | 29.2% | 12.2% | 2.39 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 8.8% | 6.5% | 1.35 | 9.5% | 5.6% | 1.70 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.4% | 11.2% | 1.91 | 17.7% | 10.0% | 1.77 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.09 | 17.0% | 6.9% | 2.46 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 20.2% | 13.8% | 1.46 | 20.2% | 13.8% | 1.46 |
All of tonight’s outliers are under-achievers. Some more interesting than others. A couple with a history of this sort of thing where we may have to soon consider this is who they are (Masahiro Tanaka).
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 5.02 | 4.5 | -0.52 | 5.16 | 0.14 | 5.95 | 0.93 | 8.50 | 3.48 | 5.64 | 5.01 | -0.63 | 5.77 | 0.13 | 6.97 | 1.33 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.52 | 3.98 | 0.46 | 3.74 | 0.22 | 3.03 | -0.49 | 2.57 | -0.95 | 1.29 | 4.04 | 2.75 | 3.87 | 2.58 | 2.89 | 1.6 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.88 | 2.59 | 0.71 | 2.39 | 0.51 | 1.89 | 0.01 | 2.42 | 0.54 | 1.23 | 1.85 | 0.62 | 1.69 | 0.46 | 1.16 | -0.07 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 3.67 | 4.87 | 1.2 | 4.78 | 1.11 | 4.68 | 1.01 | 7.36 | 3.69 | 5.14 | 5.53 | 0.39 | 5.56 | 0.42 | 5.86 | 0.72 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | ||||||||||||||||
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.28 | 3.68 | 0.4 | 3.53 | 0.25 | 3.71 | 0.43 | 2.38 | -0.90 | 2.31 | 3.77 | 1.46 | 3.58 | 1.27 | 3.69 | 1.38 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.85 | 4.76 | -1.09 | 4.82 | -1.03 | 3.78 | -2.07 | 3.65 | -2.20 | 5.14 | 4.09 | -1.05 | 3.65 | -1.49 | 3.42 | -1.72 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.76 | 3.51 | -0.25 | 3.53 | -0.23 | 3.07 | -0.69 | 1.84 | -1.92 | 3.58 | 2.88 | -0.7 | 2.8 | -0.78 | 2.57 | -1.01 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.7 | 4.34 | 0.64 | 4.72 | 1.02 | 4.21 | 0.51 | 2.73 | -0.97 | 3.54 | 4.85 | 1.31 | 5.32 | 1.78 | 4.32 | 0.78 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.1 | 3.71 | 0.61 | 4 | 0.9 | 3.34 | 0.24 | 2.02 | -1.08 | 3.09 | 3.41 | 0.32 | 3.71 | 0.62 | 2.53 | -0.56 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 3.96 | 5.22 | 1.26 | 5.5 | 1.54 | 4.85 | 0.89 | 6.18 | 2.22 | 5.68 | 6 | 0.32 | 5.99 | 0.31 | 6.11 | 0.43 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.06 | 4.84 | 0.78 | 5.17 | 1.11 | 5.26 | 1.2 | 5.34 | 1.28 | 8.49 | 5 | -3.49 | 5.62 | -2.87 | 8.69 | 0.2 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.56 | 3.21 | -0.35 | 2.95 | -0.61 | 3.23 | -0.33 | 1.97 | -1.59 | 4.35 | 3.18 | -1.17 | 2.99 | -1.36 | 3.65 | -0.7 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.07 | 4.93 | 0.86 | 4.61 | 0.54 | 4.7 | 0.63 | 6.23 | 2.16 | 3.91 | 4.78 | 0.87 | 4.39 | 0.48 | 4.34 | 0.43 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.8 | 3.62 | -1.18 | 3.77 | -1.03 | 3.92 | -0.88 | 3.77 | -1.03 | 5.88 | 4.15 | -1.73 | 4.35 | -1.53 | 3.8 | -2.08 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.61 | 4.26 | -0.35 | 4.24 | -0.37 | 4.97 | 0.36 | 4.07 | -0.54 | 4.99 | 4.47 | -0.52 | 4.57 | -0.42 | 5.41 | 0.42 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 5.63 | 4.6 | -1.03 | 4.53 | -1.1 | 5.13 | -0.5 | 8.70 | 3.07 | 5.4 | 4.39 | -1.01 | 4.22 | -1.18 | 5.03 | -0.37 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 6 | 1.83 | -4.17 | 2.51 | -3.49 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 2.53 | -3.47 | |||||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.83 | 4.46 | 0.63 | 4.34 | 0.51 | 4.35 | 0.52 | 3.11 | -0.72 | 4.97 | 4.36 | -0.61 | 4.23 | -0.74 | 4.03 | -0.94 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.65 | 5.04 | -1.61 | 5.1 | -1.55 | 5.23 | -1.42 | 6.98 | 0.33 | 5.79 | 4.4 | -1.39 | 4.42 | -1.37 | 4.66 | -1.13 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 5.79 | 3.04 | -2.75 | 3.14 | -2.65 | 3.36 | -2.43 | 5.13 | -0.66 | 5.33 | 2.73 | -2.6 | 2.88 | -2.45 | 3.15 | -2.18 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.56 | 4.33 | -2.23 | 4.43 | -2.13 | 6.05 | -0.51 | 4.86 | -1.70 | 7 | 4.19 | -2.81 | 4.25 | -2.75 | 7.03 | 0.03 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.91 | 5.32 | 0.41 | 5.29 | 0.38 | 4.46 | -0.45 | 7.77 | 2.86 | 7.11 | 5.49 | -1.62 | 5.37 | -1.74 | 4.3 | -2.81 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3.02 | 2.99 | -0.03 | 3.45 | 0.43 | 3.4 | 0.38 | 2.08 | -0.94 | 3.94 | 2.87 | -1.07 | 3.37 | -0.57 | 4.13 | 0.19 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 6.32 | 5.66 | -0.66 | 5.94 | -0.38 | 5.84 | -0.48 | 6.66 | 0.34 | 6.32 | 5.67 | -0.65 | 5.94 | -0.38 | 5.84 | -0.48 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 1.56 | 4.55 | 2.99 | 3.83 | 2.27 | 2.75 | 1.19 | 2.26 | 0.70 | 1.56 | 4.55 | 2.99 | 3.83 | 2.27 | 2.75 | 1.19 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.85 | 5.72 | 0.87 | 5.53 | 0.68 | 5.26 | 0.41 | 4.41 | -0.44 | 4.97 | 5.59 | 0.62 | 5.26 | 0.29 | 4.97 | 0 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 6.19 | 4.33 | -1.86 | 4.74 | -1.45 | 5.22 | -0.97 | 6.54 | 0.35 | 7.77 | 4.92 | -2.85 | 5.02 | -2.75 | 5.13 | -2.64 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.84 | 4.7 | -1.14 | 4.43 | -1.41 | 4.64 | -1.2 | 4.88 | -0.96 | 6.67 | 4.92 | -1.75 | 4.71 | -1.96 | 5.4 | -1.27 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.45 | 4.04 | 1.59 | 3.58 | 1.13 | 3.66 | 1.21 | 3.10 | 0.65 | 2.45 | 4.05 | 1.6 | 3.58 | 1.13 | 3.66 | 1.21 |
Alex Wood has just a 5.0 HR/FB.
Jake Arrieta has seen his BABIP rise 100 points and a couple of things go into that. The defense was historically great last year, but has been more average this year. He’s also allowing hard contact at something close to a league average rate. That said, his BABIP and 63.7 LOB% still should have quite a bit of regression in them even if you project him as an average contact manager going forward with a nearly elite K-BB%. His BABIP profile may even have some upside beyond average still left in it.
Luis Perdomo has a ridiculous .382 BABIP and 60.9 LOB%.
Zack Godley has just a .224 BABIP and 82.6 LOB%, but if his K% begins to match his SwStr% as these things regression, we may not see too much movement in his ERA.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.286 | 0.233 | -0.053 | 28.9% | 0.132 | 21.2% | 84.6% | 87.7 | 11.40% | 8.20% | 114 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.293 | 0.348 | 0.055 | 53.7% | 0.209 | 5.9% | 83.5% | 85.8 | 3.00% | 2.10% | 67 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.297 | 0.280 | -0.017 | 67.6% | 0.139 | 20.0% | 85.6% | 85.8 | 1.90% | 1.10% | 108 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.282 | 0.252 | -0.03 | 46.1% | 0.204 | 7.1% | 90.4% | 86.5 | 7.60% | 5.80% | 170 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.298 | ||||||||||
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.285 | 0.252 | -0.033 | 52.3% | 0.17 | 12.8% | 87.0% | 86.6 | 5.80% | 3.80% | 154 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.352 | 0.044 | 40.0% | 0.224 | 4.3% | 83.1% | 87.4 | 5.50% | 3.90% | 128 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.270 | 0.306 | 0.036 | 40.9% | 0.207 | 14.3% | 81.1% | 89 | 6.60% | 4.10% | 166 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.283 | 0.188 | -0.095 | 36.4% | 0.14 | 21.7% | 83.9% | 85.7 | 6.50% | 4.10% | 123 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.308 | 0.263 | -0.045 | 32.0% | 0.213 | 7.0% | 79.5% | 86.6 | 6.50% | 4.00% | 123 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.263 | 0.268 | 0.005 | 33.5% | 0.209 | 13.9% | 86.6% | 90.2 | 9.40% | 7.00% | 160 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.296 | 0.198 | -0.098 | 39.8% | 0.107 | 7.8% | 83.0% | 89.6 | 11.70% | 7.80% | 103 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.336 | 0.016 | 43.7% | 0.237 | 9.1% | 74.4% | 87.8 | 5.20% | 3.00% | 135 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.286 | 0.247 | -0.039 | 52.3% | 0.188 | 9.3% | 88.3% | 86 | 5.30% | 3.80% | 152 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.294 | 0.345 | 0.051 | 41.3% | 0.213 | 12.5% | 81.5% | 85.5 | 7.30% | 5.00% | 150 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.276 | 0.263 | -0.013 | 44.8% | 0.184 | 3.3% | 85.6% | 89.5 | 8.60% | 6.30% | 163 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.279 | 0.326 | 0.047 | 44.1% | 0.2 | 7.7% | 86.4% | 86.1 | 6.00% | 4.40% | 149 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.315 | 0.000 | -0.315 | 60.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 84.6% | ||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0 | 50.7% | 0.185 | 6.7% | 88.9% | 89 | 8.90% | 6.70% | 146 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.305 | 0.367 | 0.062 | 43.3% | 0.22 | 8.8% | 84.2% | 88.8 | 9.60% | 7.10% | 166 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.301 | 0.382 | 0.081 | 69.0% | 0.15 | 11.1% | 93.8% | 87.8 | 5.30% | 3.70% | 113 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.282 | 0.329 | 0.047 | 49.7% | 0.174 | 15.1% | 87.6% | 89.4 | 11.10% | 8.20% | 162 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0 | 39.0% | 0.214 | 9.8% | 88.8% | 87.9 | 3.80% | 2.80% | 156 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.297 | 0.258 | -0.039 | 33.1% | 0.165 | 7.1% | 78.5% | 87.4 | 6.40% | 3.80% | 141 |
| Mike Bolsinger | TOR | 0.303 | 0.313 | 0.01 | 48.0% | 0.2 | 12.5% | 89.0% | 88.9 | 8.00% | 5.30% | 50 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.300 | 0.171 | -0.129 | 44.1% | 0.235 | 9.1% | 83.6% | 83.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.264 | 0.235 | -0.029 | 44.6% | 0.208 | 8.6% | 88.3% | 87.2 | 5.90% | 4.80% | 102 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.272 | 0.311 | 0.039 | 35.8% | 0.179 | 4.5% | 84.4% | 88 | 7.30% | 5.00% | 96 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.289 | 0.310 | 0.021 | 46.9% | 0.238 | 12.8% | 86.4% | 88 | 6.20% | 4.60% | 162 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.282 | 0.224 | -0.058 | 65.1% | 0.127 | 7.1% | 89.2% | 82.2 | 7.20% | 5.10% | 69 |
Jacob deGrom has a high BABIP that is largely a combination of an increased LD rate and terrible defense, but the LD has always run a bit high, which may be a surprise.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (2) steps up in competition tonight, but has been dominant in every way imaginable. If it’s not strikeouts, it’s weak ground balls that allow him to go deeper into the game. His cost is still below $10K and even below $9K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Max Scherzer (1) is the top overall arm on the board in a great spot. He just costs $3K more than Wood on either site. Five innings and six strikeouts in his last start in Atlanta are season lows.
Aaron Nola is reasonably priced around $8K in a somewhat neutral matchup against the Reds. When healthy, and seven innings in his last start would lead one to believe he should be, his upside is anywhere from an above average ground ball generator to an All-Star that adds strikeouts to weak ground balls. His cost is likely to rise in subsequent starts. With a price difference of nearly $2K on DraftKings, he may project near Wood on a point per dollar basis.
Value Tier Three
Buck Farmer is probably not where you’re landing on a single pitcher site with the talent on this board. Circumstances are a shame because he would make a better SP2 sleeper, but his peripherals have been strong in AAA this season and he faces an awful offense against RHP at a very low price.
Jacob deGrom (3) is still one of the top pitchers on a much deeper slate tonight, but now faces a reduction in strikeout expectations going from the Padres to Pirates after being pushed back yesterday with no reduction in cost. It’s a fine overall run prevention spot though.
Zack Godley is in a dangerous spot, but has plenty of upside to go with it for less than $7K. In terms of strikeouts and ground balls, he’s been very similar to the following pitcher this year, but combines a SwStr% that projects for more with a lower price tag in a more interesting spot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luis Perdomo has faced 142 batters this season with 101 of them (71.1%) either striking or grounding out. He’s not in a good spot in Washington tonight, but they’re a predominantly RH lineup, against whom those numbers increase. There’s a decent chance that’s worth $7K.
Jake Arrieta offers a buying opportunity for not around $9.5K. While we saw signs of decline last year, he’s not nearly as bad as his ERA and his peripherals have even improved this season. He’s not a $12K pitcher anymore, but he may still be a $10K one.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been better than people may realize and borderline elite in his peripherals over the last month. Even in Fenway, this may be a more favorable matchup than people realize as well. I’m tempted to push him up a tier because this almost feels too low for a pitcher with his stat lines for less than $9K.
Chris Archer has been striking out the world in May, but when batters do make contact, they are hitting it hard, something the lack of HRs may be hiding. It’s funny that last year it seemed to be the opposite. That, a rising cost, and the strength of the Minnesota offense being one of his weaknesses (walks), drags his potential value down, not due to lack of upside at all, but increased risk on a deep board.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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