Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 2nd
We’re into the back end of rotations on Monday. Pitching is extremely cheap, especially on FanDuel, where only one arm exceeds $8K. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t any interesting pitchers on the board, but mostly unproven ones.
Since this is being written mostly on Sunday night to account for the larger than usual day slate, which we’ll see all week long, 2017 stats are still being used for another day where season stats are showed. Also for last seven, 14 and 30 days. Opposing team stats for the 2018 season should be updated tomorrow for the first time with pitcher stats likely at the end of the week or start of next.
I’m also aware of the fact that there are still some shading issues in a few columns in the Main and Statcast columns. All columns are sortable, which should help avoid any confusion.
It’s still cold out there (I’m getting ready for some Monday morning snow in the northeast) and while we generally associate that with bad hitting weather, note that it can be difficult for pitchers to grip all of their pitches in cold weather as well. And the baseball currently being employed at the major league level seems to have no issues jumping out of the yard in any kind of weather.
All pitchers are listed with some short notes at the top pertaining to a few day game pitchers of interest, while the main slate is covered in depth below.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | -7.7 | 3.96 | 5.1 | 50.3% | 0.96 | 4.47 | Rangers | 82 | 95 | 79 | |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 3.2 | 4.27 | 5.4 | 47.7% | 1.03 | 4.17 | 9.40 | Yankees | 115 | 110 | 128 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 42.7% | 0.96 | 5.28 | 4.51 | Athletics | 114 | 106 | 89 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | -0.6 | 5.27 | 5.9 | 38.2% | 0.92 | 5.85 | 5.47 | Mets | 96 | 101 | 90 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 3.6 | 4.89 | 5.4 | 35.9% | 0.88 | 6.15 | Marlins | 100 | 92 | 121 | |
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | -4.1 | 5.41 | 5.0 | 51.7% | 0.91 | 4.33 | 10.49 | Rockies | 82 | 84 | 130 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.46 | 5.7 | 50.6% | 0.91 | 5.46 | 4.13 | Padres | 90 | 85 | 59 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | -3.7 | 3.69 | 5.7 | 52.9% | 0.87 | 3.55 | 3.50 | Orioles | 87 | 95 | 25 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | -4.7 | 5.05 | 5.2 | 40.2% | 0.87 | 4.85 | 6.80 | Astros | 121 | 122 | 143 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | -2 | 4.60 | 5.2 | 49.2% | 1.07 | 4.11 | 4.70 | Royals | 91 | 89 | 78 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 4.2 | 4.38 | 5.1 | 44.9% | 1.17 | 4.48 | 5.65 | Diamondbacks | 107 | 85 | 110 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.22 | 5.6 | 55.5% | 1.04 | 3.41 | 2.78 | White Sox | 91 | 106 | 64 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.1 | 3.98 | 5.5 | 49.5% | 0.98 | 3.67 | 3.99 | Twins | 95 | 104 | 98 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.5 | 4.48 | 5.6 | 39.8% | 1.07 | 4.86 | 3.56 | Tigers | 110 | 91 | 50 |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | 3.7 | 4.39 | 5.9 | 52.3% | 0.93 | 4.55 | Indians | 110 | 105 | 102 | |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.34 | 5.3 | 40.7% | 1.03 | 4.25 | 4.52 | Rays | 96 | 90 | 103 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.8 | 4.83 | 5.6 | 44.3% | 0.98 | 4.71 | 6.32 | Pirates | 90 | 85 | 93 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 1.1 | 4.74 | 5.2 | 42.0% | 0.92 | 5.58 | 6.03 | Phillies | 79 | 91 | 101 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 2.2 | 4.40 | 5.0 | 39.0% | 0.93 | 4.21 | 3.77 | Angels | 99 | 98 | 87 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | -0.1 | 4.93 | 5.5 | 35.3% | 1.04 | 6.56 | 5.14 | Blue Jays | 92 | 90 | 89 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | -0.4 | 4.71 | 5.3 | 43.8% | 0.99 | 4.88 | 4.47 | Nationals | 90 | 102 | 111 |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 4.29 | 5.5 | 46.6% | 1.17 | 4.62 | 3.53 | Dodgers | 98 | 103 | 133 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.7 | 4.30 | 6.1 | 48.4% | 0.99 | 4.41 | 4.32 | Braves | 90 | 89 | 90 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 3.9 | 4.69 | 5.7 | 57.6% | 1.01 | 4.39 | 3.98 | Reds | 100 | 99 | 90 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 4.8 | 5.53 | 5.0 | 52.5% | 1.01 | 5.22 | Cubs | 95 | 100 | 90 | |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.42 | 5.8 | 48.1% | 1.02 | 4.62 | 5.95 | Cardinals | 97 | 99 | 71 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.8 | #DIV/0! | 1.02 | Brewers | 90 | 94 | 91 | ||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 3.6 | #DIV/0! | 0.88 | Red Sox | 91 | 90 | 75 |
Day Games
TB @ NYY PPD
Francsico Liriano gets yet another shot at revival. The upside isn’t nearly as high anymore. The Tigers are just looking for competency at this point. The Royals don’t like to walk as an organization and he can still get LHBs out (17.0 K-BB%, 55.1 GB% last year), neutralizing a couple of the stronger Kansas City hitters (Mouse, Duda). Merrifield should be a strong play however.
Jameson Taillon is essentially a league average pitcher with more of a concentration on weak contact than missing bats (8.2 SwStr%). He faces a decent offense, minus a DH today in a park that greatly suppresses right-handed power. While his 85.4 mph aEV was low, his 25.1 LD% was enormous, leading to such a high BABIP (.352).
Lance Lynn struck out five in three scoreless innings in his spring debut after signing very late and then another five in four innings in his second start, but that was it. Those seven innings were the entirety of his spring and he had just a league average strikeout rate last season. The low ERA was a product of a .244 BABIP and 79 LOB% that are unlikely to be repeated.
Tyler Chatwood gets out of Colorado and has some upside in a high ground ball rate and league average strikeout rate.
Zach Davies excelled at contact management in a tough park last season. That stuff doesn’t always carry over though and the strikeout rate is trash.
Miles Mikolas had some success in Japan the last couple of years and might be someone to think about on the day slate this afternoon.
—-
Andrew Triggs was often an interesting low priced pitcher before after a few disastrous starts to round out May and start June, likely due to the injury that ended his season thereafter. A strong sinker/slider combo led to double digit SwStr% and 50% ground ball rate. This is something he’s done in more than 50 innings in each of the 2016 and 2017 seasons at the big league level and includes a portion of the latter season in which he may have been pitching injured. It’s hopeful that the injury also accounted for the 88.5 mph aEV, which we see spike up near the end of his season and a .294 BABIP that matches his defense despite a 17.7 LD%. He hosts the Rangers, a very over-rated offense with few differences from the 2017 lineup that had an 82 wRC+ on the road that includes a 26.1 K%. They’re 24.3 K% vs RHP is not much better.
Brian Johnson had a strong enough spring (15.2 IP – 10 H – 3 BB – 13 K) to earn a spot in the rotation to start the season. He was not very impressive in a five game run in the majors last season. His 12.0% Barrels/BBE was atrocious and he hasn’t missed many bats in the minors either the last two seasons (strikeout rate below 19% at AAA each year), but he not only loses a DH and benefits from one of the most negative run environments on the board tonight, he gets to face the Marlins. I know, I know, that hasn’t worked out so well with them scoring at least four runs in three of their first four games. Stay with me here. I’m not ready to give up on the Marlins yet.
Bryan Mitchell was so coveted by the Padres that they purchased Chase Headley just to get him. In 98 big league innings, which includes nine starts, he has just a 4.5 K-BB% and 7.4 SwStr%. He has also generated a 51.5 GB% and 28.1 Hard%. Minor league numbers suggest more upside. In 13 AAA starts last season, he had a 20.4 K-BB% and 55.4 GB%. Previous seasons haven’t been as successful, but in parts of four years at AAA, he’s never had a strikeout rate less than 19% or a ground ball rate less than 50%. The Rockies get away from the stupid humidor and travel to a park that we know has served pitchers well over the years. Last year, they had an 82 wRC+ and 24.6 K% on the road, 84 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs RHP.
Charlie Morton is tonight’s top pitcher. His 26.9 K% is second on the board, his 3.55 xFIP at home was best of any pitcher on the board who had just one home last year and his .291 xwOBA was 13 points less than his actual one and also lowest on the board. Upon arriving in Houston, he made changes to consciously induce more weak contact from RHBs (56.1 GB%, 0.4 Hard-Soft%) and strike out more lefties (32.8%), resulting in an extreme reverse split last season (nearly .100 points of wOBA), when much the opposite had previously been true for his career. Of course, it also helped that he was throwing harder too. The Astros like strikeouts as Gerrit Cole can attest to now too. The largest issue here may be that a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup could be more predisposed to contact, but it shouldn’t be good contact, despite the .345 wOBA against RHBs last year and he still struck out a league average 20.9% of same-dhanded hitters. The park is also an ally, the degree of to which many people don’t realize. It’s actually been the lowest run scoring environment in baseball over the last few years.
Hyun-Jin Ryu was the first pitcher to strike Mike Trout out this spring, but he’s essentially a league average pitcher by strikeouts (21%) and ground ball rate (45%) and even xwOBA (.324). The great news is that Arizona now has this humidor…okay, I’ll stop now…but it’s supposed to work and make pitchers under-valued for a while. It really hasn’t yet, although there was a 2-1 game over the weekend.
Mike Clevinger owns both the highest strikeout rate (27.3%) and swinging strike rate (12.5%) on the board. His ERA estimators are a run above his 3.11 ERA with a minor discrepancy in his BABIP (.273) and his strand rate (79.7%). The problem is that he has a 12% walk rate through 170 big league innings. It’s his fastball. All of his secondary pitches have an exceptional 19% whiff rate or better, but he struggles to set them up with a fastball that he can throw for strikes. The good news is that he walked just four of 72 batters this spring. He also allowed four HRs, but struck out 25. He doesn’t have a history of going deep into games, but he did finish six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last year (missing once only by a single out). There’s tremendous upside here and his 39% ground ball rate may be less of an issue in a pitcher’s park. Why the Angels would lower their right-field wall when almost all of their power comes from the right-hand side is a bit of a mystery. The park has been a positive to right-handed power in recent years though (1.12 RHB HR via Seamheads.org three year park factors).
Tanner Roark turned in a double digit swinging strike rate (10.1%) for the first time in his career last year enroot to a career high 21.4 K%. This also led to a career high 4.67 ERA. Though his estimators are all around a half run lower, there’s nothing exceptional here. The upside is a league average pitcher at a league average cost. Like Bettis, you could plug him in your lineup and come away unscathed, but where does that really get you in GPPs? His 6.1 IP per start over the last two calendar years is best on the board though, and that’s really where any value lies against an Atlanta lineup that may be a bit below average, but does not strike out a lot.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Taijuan Walker (.290 – 73.1% – 11.3) was supposed to have a breakout year moving to the National League (though a more difficult park), coming off a season in which he pitched with a foot injury, and in terms of ERA (3.49) he did somewhat. None of his metrics are even that far out of line, but nearly 20% of his runs allowed (15 of 76) were unearned. His 88.2 mph aEV is third highest on the board and despite the promises of the humidor, he faces a difficult lineup tonight.
Ben Lively (.280 – 74.2% – 10.4) doesn’t miss bats and probably can’t sustain that HR rate in Philly. He’s in a friendlier environment tonight and Statcast points to his weak contact prowess last season, but there’s an additional factor. His manager is a physical fitness freak and it’s common knowledge that a sedentary lifestyle is a future health hazard (we’re all probably screwed), Kapler likes to get his exercise in during game time hours by walking from the dugout to the mound…frequently. Heck, as he proved Saturday, he’s perfectly willing to remove a pitcher from a game without another even warming up in the bullpen.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Chad Bettis returned from a cancer diagnosis last year to start only nine games. His strikeout rate (16.7%) was down slightly, though his swinging strike rate (9.2%) was nearly league average. His 48.4 GB% was just below his career rate too. If he can miss bats at a league average rate with a 50% ground ball rate, he can be a quality arm. His 84 mph aEV is best on the board today, but that was just nine starts and league average pitcher is probably his best outcome. That and his career reverse split (RHBs on the road .343 wOBA, 16.5 K%, 45.5 GB% and 33 Hard%) could play against him with a predominantly right-handed San Diego lineup. The park is in in his favor, but the cost (especially on DraftKings – $8.2K) leave little in terms of value.
Matt Harvey was a mess last season and it was discovered that he was pitching with a tremendously atrophied muscle in his right shoulder after thoracic outlet surgery the year before (a surgery few pitchers return completely intact from). After a difficult start to his spring, in which we heard all the same things we heard last year, about how good he felt, his last two starts have been very strong (10.1 IP – 3 BB – 13 K) in which he threw 80% strikes. The velocity wasn’t there, but the command and the secondaries looked improved. There’s a lot to prove here and the Phillies should be better, but if anyone who hasn’t been burned to a crisp by him already is feeling adventurous, there may be some upside here at a cost below $8K on either site.
Reynaldo Lopez arrived in Chicago with some potential with a 20% or better strikeout rate at every stop above rookie ball and a 20.9 K% in his Washington debut (44 innings). With the White Sox, that turned into 14.5% in 47.2 innings. His curveball usage and spin rate dropped, leading at least one person to speculate if he wasn’t dealing with a blister issue. If he gets all of his pitches working again, there’s some upside here and his 9.0 SwStr% suggests his strikeout rate could improve, but that’s a lot of ifs. Minor speculation here may not be a terrible thing.
Sean Newcomb has talent, but walks way too many batters (12.5%) and faces a very difficult offense that leans predominantly right-handed aside from their top hitter. After completing six innings in each of his first four starts, he went on to do so only three times over his last 15 starts.
Trevor Richards may be 24 years old, but has never thrown a pitch above AA. Over the last two years, he has exceeded a 21 K% at all four levels he’s pitched at with a walk rate below 6% at three of four stops. There’s really no other information on him though. He does not show up in the Fangraphs top prospects list even though there is a link to said article in his player profile. Perhaps they confused him with Trevor Rogers, because I can’t find him. Despite the favorable environment and catching the Red Sox without a DH, this is a difficult lineup to squeeze fantasy points against.
Jaime Garcia was a part of three different organizations last season and although the results weren’t entirely positive with an ERA plus estimators in the mind fours, he did generate an 11.2 SwStr% with a 54.8 GB% and league average xwOBA. He doesn’t have much of a career split, but the White Sox are proficient against southpaws, as they proved on Opening Day against Danny Duffy. Only three pitchers tonight have a price differential above $2K. He’s the only one who isn’t a top priced pitcher, which nearly makes him interesting on FanDuel ($5.9K).
JC Ramirez has an incredibly difficult assignment in a park that may be slightly less pitcher friendly this year with the lowering of the right-field wall. Most of the Cleveland power comes from the left-side.
Bartolo Colon was actually cut last week, but circumstances necessitate that he actually be on the mound for the Rangers tonight. The good news is that his estimators were closer to five than his ERA over six last year and I suppose he could knock a young, aggressive Oakland offense off balance for a few innings, but even so, his upside is incredibly limited and the A’s are not a bad team. They were a well above average offense at home and against RHP last season, even if they do swing and miss a lot.
Chris Tillman may have been pitching injured to some degree last year, but he had the worst Statcast numbers on the board last season, by a wide margin, and pitches against the best offense.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | Season | 17.7% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | Home | 17.7% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | L14Days | ||||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 20.9% | Season | 17.8% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 20.9% | Road | 19.9% | 6.3% | 14.3% | 9.4% | L14Days | 28.6% | -40.0% | ||
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 4.7% | 12.7% | 18.7% | Season | 13.7% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 18.0% | Road | 11.7% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 20.3% | L14Days | 17.4% | 4.4% | 23.1% | 8.3% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | Season | 14.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | Road | 12.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 11.1% | L14Days | 10.4% | 4.2% | 15.8% | -7.5% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | Season | 17.4% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | Road | 18.4% | 10.5% | 21.4% | 11.1% | L14Days | ||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | L2 Yrs | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | Season | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 4.1% | Home | 12.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | -6.0% | L14Days | 28.6% | 50.0% | ||
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 12.6% | Season | 15.0% | 5.5% | 16.0% | 10.1% | Road | 14.9% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 19.6% | L14Days | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% | |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.5% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 4.9% | Season | 26.4% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 4.8% | Home | 26.4% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 4.7% | L14Days | 19.6% | 2.2% | 11.1% | -17.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 16.6% | Season | 14.2% | 11.5% | 20.0% | 21.4% | Road | 19.0% | 9.2% | 22.6% | 38.0% | L14Days | 10.3% | 13.8% | 27.3% | 52.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 14.1% | Season | 19.4% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 12.8% | Home | 23.1% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 14.7% | L14Days | 30.0% | 20.0% | -20.0% | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 18.6% | Season | 21.4% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 17.6% | Road | 20.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 17.0% | L14Days | 8.3% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 23.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 11.3% | Season | 19.2% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 9.8% | Home | 23.2% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 4.9% | L14Days | 38.2% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 27.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 11.2% | Season | 21.3% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | Home | 20.2% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 7.2% | L14Days | 22.7% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 14.5% | Season | 18.0% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 15.0% | Road | 18.9% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 13.1% | L14Days | 21.7% | 4.4% | 25.0% | 24.3% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 14.5% | Season | 16.9% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 19.6% | Home | 15.9% | 6.6% | 16.2% | 15.6% | L14Days | ||||
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | Season | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | Home | 24.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | L14Days | 18.6% | 4.7% | -9.1% | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 8.1% | Season | 19.7% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 8.1% | Road | 20.6% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 13.2% | L14Days | 18.8% | 18.8% | 20.0% | -5.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 7.1% | Season | 15.6% | 10.9% | 20.6% | 8.4% | Home | 14.9% | 10.9% | 22.9% | 14.3% | L14Days | 10.9% | 10.9% | 22.2% | 4.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 25.4% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 14.7% | Season | 27.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 15.6% | Road | 27.7% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 20.7% | L14Days | 27.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | Season | 14.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | Road | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | L14Days | 13.0% | 3.7% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | Season | 23.7% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | Home | 20.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 11.5% | L14Days | 26.7% | 13.3% | -14.8% | |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 13.2% | Season | 21.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 18.0% | Home | 19.8% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 25.5% | L14Days | 30.0% | 10.0% | 16.7% | 26.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 5.7% | Season | 21.4% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 11.1% | Road | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 14.7% | L14Days | 20.7% | 10.3% | 20.5% | |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 8.9% | Season | 19.0% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 7.0% | Road | 19.4% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 1.4% | L14Days | 17.0% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 5.2% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 15.2% | 12.0% | 1.6% | Season | 15.2% | 12.0% | 1.6% | Home | 21.7% | 17.4% | 30.8% | L14Days | |||||||
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | Season | 15.2% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 8.9% | Home | 15.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 12.9% | L14Days | 6.4% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 20.5% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days | ||||||||||||||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Road | 26.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 11.5% | RH | 24.3% | 8.9% | 16.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.1% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 8.3% | RH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.2% | 21.9% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.8% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 16.1% | RH | 24.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 16.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 16.1% |
| Mets | Home | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 1.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 8.4% | LH | 20.2% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 4.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.6% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 10.1% | RH | 22.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.2% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 7.0% | RH | 25.3% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 5.7% | L7Days | 25.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | -2.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 5.9% | 13.2% | 14.6% | RH | 22.7% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 23.6% |
| Astros | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 13.4% | RH | 17.5% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 15.5% |
| Royals | Road | 20.4% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 11.4% | LH | 18.5% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.9% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 23.2% | LH | 24.0% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 16.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 22.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.6% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 11.5% | LH | 21.2% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 22.3% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 13.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 16.6% | L7Days | 28.7% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 26.0% | RH | 22.1% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 20.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 18.3% | RH | 19.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% |
| Rays | Road | 24.2% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 11.4% | LH | 25.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.6% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 7.6% | RH | 19.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Angels | Home | 19.1% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 10.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 7.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 10.6% | RH | 21.4% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 6.6% | 18.5% | 4.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 12.2% | LH | 22.0% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 18.4% | RH | 22.3% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 19.2% | L7Days | 16.9% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 19.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Reds | Home | 22.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 9.0% | RH | 21.2% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 11.2% | RH | 22.4% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 14.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 14.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 14.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 18.4% | RH | 25.5% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | RH | 19.7% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 4.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 17.7% | 10.4% | 1.70 | |||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.85 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 1.68 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 13.7% | 5.4% | 2.54 | 12.8% | 5.2% | 2.46 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.36 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 17.4% | 7.8% | 2.23 | |||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 11.1% | 6.4% | 1.73 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 1.93 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 15.0% | 9.2% | 1.63 | 15.3% | 10.0% | 1.53 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.42 | 28.7% | 10.6% | 2.71 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 14.2% | 7.1% | 2.00 | 11.5% | 6.5% | 1.77 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 19.4% | 9.6% | 2.02 | 31.8% | 13.1% | 2.43 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 21.4% | 11.0% | 1.95 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 2.22 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.71 | 31.5% | 11.7% | 2.69 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.60 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 2.38 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 18.0% | 9.5% | 1.89 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.33 |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 | |||
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 22.2% | 12.2% | 1.82 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.19 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 1.83 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.84 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 27.3% | 12.5% | 2.18 | 27.4% | 11.4% | 2.40 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 14.5% | 9.0% | 1.61 | 8.0% | 6.9% | 1.16 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 23.7% | 11.2% | 2.12 | 27.2% | 12.6% | 2.16 |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 2.91 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 2.13 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.19 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 15.2% | 6.8% | 2.24 | 13.0% | 5.1% | 2.55 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 15.2% | 7.2% | 2.11 | 12.6% | 7.7% | 1.64 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | ||||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 4.27 | 4.54 | 0.27 | 4.27 | 0.26 | 4.47 | 0.20 | 3.54 | -0.73 | |||||||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 5.31 | 4.27 | -1.04 | 5.31 | -0.88 | 4.27 | -1.04 | 4.44 | -0.87 | 5.56 | 4.18 | -1.38 | 4.64 | -0.92 | 4.22 | -1.34 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 6.48 | 5.08 | -1.40 | 6.48 | -1.34 | 5.21 | -1.27 | 6.64 | 0.16 | 7.56 | 5.19 | -2.37 | 5.27 | -2.29 | 5.76 | -1.80 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 4.26 | 5.27 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 1.32 | 4.97 | 0.71 | 5.63 | 1.37 | 4.34 | 5.12 | 0.78 | 5.61 | 1.27 | 5.09 | 0.75 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 4.33 | 4.89 | 0.56 | 4.33 | 0.93 | 4.90 | 0.57 | 5.26 | 0.93 | |||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 5.79 | 4.81 | -0.98 | 5.79 | -1.03 | 4.20 | -1.59 | 6.99 | 1.20 | 11.12 | 3.50 | -7.62 | 3.61 | -7.51 | 2.98 | -8.14 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 5.05 | 4.74 | -0.31 | 5.05 | -0.49 | 4.88 | -0.17 | 6.12 | 1.07 | 5.24 | 4.50 | -0.74 | 4.29 | -0.95 | 4.37 | -0.87 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 3.62 | 3.70 | 0.08 | 3.62 | -0.04 | 3.46 | -0.16 | 3.49 | -0.13 | 2.54 | 3.05 | 0.51 | 2.99 | 0.45 | 2.59 | 0.05 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 7.84 | 5.76 | -2.08 | 7.84 | -1.97 | 6.93 | -0.91 | 7.82 | -0.02 | 7.43 | 6.27 | -1.16 | 7.2 | -0.23 | 8.03 | 0.60 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 5.66 | 5.09 | -0.57 | 5.66 | -0.62 | 4.64 | -1.02 | 5.36 | -0.30 | 1.59 | 3.49 | 1.90 | 2.9 | 1.31 | 2.28 | 0.69 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 3.77 | 4.36 | 0.59 | 3.77 | 0.37 | 4.74 | 0.97 | 4.58 | 0.81 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 0.80 | 4.55 | 0.35 | 5.49 | 1.29 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 4.41 | 4.54 | 0.13 | 4.41 | -0.23 | 4.25 | -0.16 | 5.02 | 0.61 | 4.26 | 3.00 | -1.26 | 2.4 | -1.86 | 3.47 | -0.79 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 4.44 | 4.24 | -0.20 | 4.44 | -0.55 | 3.48 | -0.96 | 4.67 | 0.23 | 3.25 | 4.15 | 0.90 | 3.78 | 0.53 | 3.05 | -0.20 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 5.29 | 4.65 | -0.64 | 5.29 | -0.37 | 4.37 | -0.92 | 4.76 | -0.53 | 8.39 | 4.24 | -4.15 | 4.33 | -4.06 | 3.60 | -4.79 |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | 4.15 | 4.69 | 0.54 | 4.15 | 0.37 | 4.71 | 0.56 | 4.71 | 0.56 | |||||||
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 3.88 | 4.34 | 0.46 | 3.88 | 0.57 | 4.07 | 0.19 | 4.49 | 0.61 | 2.49 | 4.55 | 2.06 | 4.62 | 2.13 | 3.99 | 1.50 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 3.43 | 4.85 | 1.42 | 3.43 | 1.32 | 4.82 | 1.39 | 4.52 | 1.09 | 5.02 | 5.67 | 0.65 | 5.31 | 0.29 | 4.94 | -0.08 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 6.70 | 5.44 | -1.26 | 6.70 | -1.31 | 6.37 | -0.33 | 7.05 | 0.35 | 11.28 | 5.97 | -5.31 | 6.4 | -4.88 | 6.92 | -4.36 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.11 | 4.24 | 1.13 | 3.11 | 0.94 | 3.85 | 0.74 | 3.79 | 0.68 | 1.27 | 3.94 | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.08 | 2.27 | 1.00 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4.72 | 5.44 | 0.72 | 4.72 | 1.03 | 4.75 | 0.03 | 7.12 | 2.40 | 4.02 | 6.10 | 2.08 | 6.3 | 2.28 | 4.37 | 0.35 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 4.32 | 4.71 | 0.39 | 4.32 | 0.20 | 4.19 | -0.13 | 5.65 | 1.33 | 4.35 | 4.06 | -0.29 | 3.74 | -0.61 | 2.19 | -2.16 |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | 3.49 | 4.42 | 0.93 | 3.49 | 0.85 | 4.04 | 0.55 | 4.26 | 0.77 | 3.86 | 4.68 | 0.82 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 4.01 | 0.15 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 4.67 | 4.31 | -0.36 | 4.67 | -0.52 | 4.13 | -0.54 | 4.00 | -0.67 | 5.84 | 3.99 | -1.85 | 3.74 | -2.10 | 3.81 | -2.03 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.69 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 4.69 | -0.42 | 4.94 | 0.25 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 3.12 | 4.21 | 1.09 | 3.95 | 0.83 | 3.93 | 0.81 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 2.70 | 5.53 | 2.83 | 2.70 | 3.09 | 4.01 | 1.31 | 5.11 | 2.41 | 1.80 | 5.58 | 3.78 | 5.97 | 4.17 | 3.96 | 2.16 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 3.90 | 4.72 | 0.82 | 3.90 | 0.52 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 3.99 | 0.09 | 4.23 | 4.52 | 0.29 | 4.05 | -0.18 | 4.24 | 0.01 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | ||||||||||||||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.294 | 0.000 | 49.8% | 17.7% | 5.9% | 85.6% | 32.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.283 | 0.345 | 0.062 | 47.7% | 20.6% | 10.2% | 89.6% | 31.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.331 | 0.042 | 41.8% | 19.3% | 8.5% | 92.2% | 35.3% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.280 | -0.024 | 38.2% | 17.7% | 12.0% | 89.8% | 36.6% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.007 | 35.9% | 18.5% | 11.9% | 93.5% | 24.5% |
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.034 | 54.1% | 25.4% | 12.0% | 92.7% | 36.1% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.293 | -0.012 | 48.4% | 19.0% | 4.0% | 90.4% | 34.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.300 | 0.294 | -0.006 | 51.8% | 19.2% | 9.8% | 83.6% | 32.9% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.334 | 0.032 | 39.5% | 23.5% | 9.2% | 90.9% | 48.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.329 | 0.009 | 44.9% | 20.2% | 7.8% | 87.3% | 35.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.299 | 0.018 | 45.1% | 22.8% | 8.5% | 84.8% | 33.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 54.8% | 18.6% | 7.1% | 86.4% | 36.5% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.046 | 47.3% | 25.1% | 10.8% | 90.1% | 34.1% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.303 | 0.318 | 0.015 | 38.0% | 20.8% | 7.7% | 89.3% | 36.1% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | 0.289 | 0.292 | 0.003 | 51.4% | 18.2% | 7.2% | 87.7% | 40.6% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 40.7% | 17.8% | 6.4% | 86.3% | 32.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.296 | 0.244 | -0.052 | 44.0% | 19.8% | 11.6% | 82.4% | 42.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 0.319 | 0.307 | -0.012 | 43.0% | 23.2% | 8.8% | 89.2% | 41.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.303 | 0.273 | -0.030 | 39.5% | 24.1% | 9.2% | 80.1% | 36.1% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.271 | -0.010 | 30.2% | 21.6% | 15.4% | 84.6% | 40.0% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.302 | 0.327 | 0.025 | 43.8% | 22.8% | 5.4% | 83.6% | 37.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.290 | -0.004 | 48.9% | 18.3% | 6.6% | 87.2% | 38.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.013 | 48.2% | 19.8% | 5.9% | 85.4% | 36.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 58.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 88.0% | 40.7% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.296 | 0.302 | 0.006 | 52.5% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 88.5% | 35.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.302 | 0.004 | 50.2% | 22.6% | 8.4% | 89.5% | 36.8% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.298 | |||||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.298 |
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com Statcast.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | 0.311 | 0.009 | 0.307 | 0.014 | -0.6 | 88.5 | 5.7 | 33.8 | 210 | ||
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | 0.321 | 0.038 | 0.311 | 0.035 | 0.312 | 0.081 | -1.5 | 87.6 | 6.8 | 29.1 | 278 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.341 | 0.043 | 0.353 | 0.037 | 0.337 | 0.037 | -1.8 | 87.5 | 6.9 | 33.5 | 523 |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.324 | 0.023 | 0.321 | 0.024 | 0.312 | 0.019 | 0.8 | 84.7 | 5.6 | 27.8 | 288 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.365 | -0.012 | 0.382 | 0.085 | -0.1 | 86.8 | 12.0 | 33.7 | 92 | ||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.375 | -0.027 | 0.365 | -0.004 | 0.336 | 0.114 | -0.4 | 88 | 2.5 | 29.5 | 122 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.047 | 0.340 | 0.067 | 0.275 | 0.053 | -0.4 | 84 | 4.4 | 27.8 | 158 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.291 | 0.013 | 0.291 | 0.007 | 0.221 | 0.079 | -1.2 | 85.1 | 4.6 | 28.5 | 390 |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 0.398 | 0.021 | 0.396 | 0.071 | 0.433 | -0.034 | -0.3 | 89.6 | 8.3 | 40.2 | 326 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.338 | 0.022 | 0.305 | -0.001 | 0.255 | -0.062 | -0.3 | 86.7 | 6.1 | 31.0 | 297 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.324 | 0.017 | 0.335 | 0.004 | 0.360 | -0.015 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 6.9 | 30.9 | 376 |
| Jaime Garcia | Blue Jays | 0.319 | 0.012 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 0.302 | 0.027 | -0.6 | 86.8 | 5.4 | 36.3 | 479 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.303 | 0.038 | 0.312 | 0.043 | 0.301 | 0.000 | -0.3 | 85.4 | 4.4 | 30.8 | 412 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.326 | 0.034 | 0.360 | 0.033 | 0.7 | 88 | 7.5 | 32.4 | 602 |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | 0.332 | -0.001 | 0.343 | -0.015 | 0.1 | 87.1 | 6.1 | 31.3 | 460 | ||
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 0.298 | 0.002 | 0.302 | -0.027 | 0.274 | -0.009 | -0.7 | 86.7 | 6.2 | 31.8 | 453 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.310 | -0.001 | 0.309 | 0.014 | 0.307 | 0.029 | -0.8 | 85.7 | 5.6 | 26.4 | 535 |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 0.360 | 0.023 | 0.377 | -0.034 | 0.357 | 0.115 | -0.7 | 86.1 | 6.8 | 34.4 | 311 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.310 | -0.011 | 0.277 | -0.005 | 0.285 | -0.046 | 0.5 | 87 | 6.6 | 32.2 | 301 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 0.320 | 0.001 | 0.293 | 0.069 | 0.308 | 0.004 | -0.2 | 87.2 | 4.9 | 25.3 | 162 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.326 | 0.016 | 0.331 | 0.026 | 0.285 | 0.027 | -1.2 | 87.2 | 5.3 | 33.0 | 285 |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | 0.313 | 0.005 | 0.335 | -0.005 | 0.308 | 0.013 | -0.5 | 88.2 | 5.4 | 34.5 | 467 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.312 | 0.008 | 0.316 | -0.004 | 0.298 | 0.039 | -0.8 | 86.3 | 5.4 | 32.6 | 540 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.326 | 0.017 | 0.307 | -0.003 | 0.324 | -0.005 | -0.4 | 85.4 | 5.3 | 31.4 | 430 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.319 | -0.004 | 0.341 | -0.017 | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.1 | 84.8 | 1.6 | 22.2 | 63 |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.339 | 0.026 | 0.330 | 0.017 | -0.6 | 85.2 | 4.0 | 29.6 | 629 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | |||||||||||
| Trevor Richards | Marlins |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Mike Clevinger (1t) is your highest upside arm. He comes at a reasonable cost on FanDuel ($10.4K on DraftKings where there are no great bargains tonight). The Angels have a reputation for making contact, but have had a bit of turnover in the lineup and did strike out at nearly a league average rate against RHP last year (19.8%). RHBs had just a .259 wOBA against him last year, though an inability to consistently throw strikes means he certainly doesn’t come without significant risk.
Value Tier Two
Bryan Mitchell retained his ground ball rate (and a 2.5% Barrels/BBE) in the majors last season, but not any of his strikeout ability. His minor league work (especially last season) suggests that can be a part of his game. Maybe the Padres will pull it out of him. He’s in a nice spot for his first start of the season, against a perennially terrible Colorado road offense at a cost of $5.5K or less on either site.
Value Tier Three
Charlie Morton (1t) pitches in a great park. The biggest issue here is that he strikes out fewer RHBs and will face a lineup dominated by them tonight. League average strikeouts and lots of ground balls are still positives and he did have the lowest xwOBA on the board last year, but he’s also easily the highest priced pitcher on the board too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Tanner Roark (3) finds himself on this list because he’s the most likely pitcher to complete six innings tonight. They may not be innings that overwhelm you, but you get fantasy points for that. I’m still not entirely sure I want to pay $9.9K on DraftKings for it though.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is a league average pitcher in what may be a league average spot if the humidor does what it’s supposed to. That’s all fine and possibly better at a cost below $9K on either site. The major issue we run into is that the Dodgers like to limit the number of runs through the order by pitchers not named Kershaw. Five innings is the expectation.
Andrew Triggs has some upside here. I had hoped to see him a bit cheaper after the way he ended his 2017 season (again, likely due to injury). He’s in a strong spot. The park in Texas makes this offense and the Rangers should be a lineup players can regularly attack outside of it. Oakland hasn’t played like the complete pitcher’s haven it used to be in recent years, but it’s a negative scoring environment.
Brian Johnson hasn’t done anything at any level over the last two seasons to inspire much confidence, but he did have a strong spring, is cheap, and is pitching in Miami. We’re going to have dip into the bottom of the barrel, especially on DraftKings tonight. If you can’t find strong pitchers, you may have to settle for strong spots.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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