Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, July 24th
Thirteen games to kick off the week, twelve on the night slight with an all Chicago affair the lone day action. The interesting thing about this slate is that I found myself liking an arm or two more than I thought I would and a few others less than expected. Guys like Peacock and Greinke have seen their ERAs sustain, while their strikeout and swinging strike rates have declined. Among those with a full complement of starts, the guy with the highest strikeout rate over the last month might surprise you.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.1 | 4.55 | 5.24 | 39.6% | 1.11 | 4.98 | 4.93 | TEX | 103 | 81 | 69 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -4.2 | 4.7 | 5.82 | 49.2% | 0.98 | 4.1 | 6.55 | STL | 101 | 97 | 90 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 1.8 | 4.47 | 5.67 | 44.3% | 0.89 | 4.92 | 3.52 | LOS | 119 | 109 | 125 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.7 | 4.89 | 4.83 | 37.7% | 0.96 | 4.79 | 4.36 | BAL | 92 | 90 | 151 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -5.8 | 4 | 5.13 | 41.4% | 0.96 | 4.5 | 4.43 | PHI | 94 | 86 | 129 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -12.2 | 3.93 | 6.5 | 47.4% | 1.03 | 3.43 | 4.74 | TOR | 90 | 89 | 72 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.8 | 4.16 | 5.91 | 60.3% | 0.91 | 3.92 | 4.63 | NYM | 111 | 102 | 88 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 7 | 4.22 | 5.7 | 36.7% | 0.89 | 4.4 | 4.34 | SEA | 109 | 100 | 80 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.8 | 4.4 | 5.24 | 48.5% | 1.03 | 4.08 | 8.02 | OAK | 89 | 79 | 106 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -3.2 | 3.92 | 5.93 | 45.3% | 0.93 | 3.91 | 2.48 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 68 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.8 | 4.14 | 5.22 | 46.4% | 0.89 | 3.89 | MIN | 90 | 86 | 101 | |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.4 | 3.45 | 6.27 | 46.3% | 0.91 | 3.45 | 3.46 | SDG | 89 | 87 | 121 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 6.6 | 3.63 | 5.74 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.5 | 2.6 | BOS | 97 | 108 | 61 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.8 | 4.37 | 5.4 | 39.8% | 0.98 | 4.9 | 5.46 | DET | 116 | 98 | 136 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0 | 4.12 | 5.95 | 41.4% | 1.09 | 4.12 | 3.68 | CIN | 95 | 98 | 88 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.8 | 3.82 | 6.53 | 33.8% | 0.98 | 4.13 | 3.88 | KAN | 85 | 89 | 142 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.6 | 4.04 | 5.7 | 43.8% | 0.96 | 4.27 | 3.1 | TAM | 112 | 110 | 67 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.2 | 3.72 | 5.91 | 50.3% | 0.96 | 3.37 | CHW | 93 | 87 | 68 | |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.5 | 4.87 | 5.83 | 52.6% | 1.11 | 4.64 | 5.32 | MIA | 100 | 97 | 81 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -0.9 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 39.3% | 0.93 | 4.61 | 5.77 | PIT | 90 | 90 | 118 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.2 | 4.92 | 5.74 | 39.9% | 0.96 | 5.18 | 5.98 | CHC | 97 | 92 | 101 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -3.5 | 4.15 | 6.04 | 53.9% | 0.98 | 3.73 | 6.32 | COL | 81 | 80 | 163 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -2.5 | 4.83 | 6.13 | 43.4% | 1.13 | 4.97 | 4.86 | ARI | 104 | 102 | 104 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 7.4 | 4.68 | 5.33 | 35.9% | 1.09 | 5.06 | 4.44 | CLE | 108 | 104 | 105 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 4.1 | 3.76 | 5.34 | 0.375 | 0.96 | 3.48 | 3.64 | HOU | 137 | 133 | 142 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.3 | 3.67 | 6.4 | 0.467 | 1.13 | 3.76 | 5.84 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 66 |
Chris Smith has struck out just eight of 51 major league batters (three walks) with a 50% ground ball rate and has a 10.8 SwStr% through two starts. At 36 years-old, we’d expect that he’s just temporarily filling a need, but his AAA work the last few seasons suggests a potentially competent arm with a K-BB between 13.8-14.9% each of the last three years. This can be useful. The Blue Jays have struggled all season and particularly over the last week (25 K%, 23.1 Hard%).
Eduardo Rodriguez allowed three runs in 5.1 innings, walking four of 25 batters in his return from a freak knee injury. He also struck out eight with just a 23.1 Hard%. For the season, he has a 17.7 K-BB% and while his 8.7% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the slate, his hard hit rate is below 30% and he gets a significant park upgrade tonight, at least in terms of run suppression. The Mariners have just an 8.8 K-BB% vs LHP, but a 21.6 K-BB% over the last week (0.0 Hard-Soft%) and a 9.3 HR/FB vs LHP overall.
Gerrit Cole struck out a season high 10 batters in his last start. We want to temper optimism a bit because it was Milwaukee, that now at least seven in three of his last four. Also, he’s had a below average SwStr% in two of those starts. There’s been no immediately discernable shift in approach, velocity or even batted ball and contact rates except for his most recent start. That said, he now possesses an 85.2 mph aEV (lowest on the slate) and has the unquestioned top run prevention matchup on the board in San Francisco (5.8 HR/FB at home, 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP). There is no team within 13 wRC+ points of the Giants at home. They are also last against RHP.
Jacob deGrom failed to complete seven innings for the first time in seven starts last time out…by just one out. He struck out just three of 28 batters, but allowed one run or less for the sixth time in this seven start span. He has a 20.0 K-BB%, 50.4 GB% and 7.2 Hard-Soft% over this stretch as well. The Padres have been better since the break, but strikeout a quarter of the time on the road and vs RHP.
James Paxton struck out at least seven for the fifth time in six starts last time out and more than that in four of them. He’s also pitched into the seventh inning in four of his last five. His 2.0% Barrels/BBE is best on the board, while his K-BB is up to 19.7%. The Red Sox have been strong against LHP (5.0 K-BB%), but with just a 10 HR/FB with a difficult park transition. There’s also the matter of his career .280 wOBA against RHBs.
Justin Verlander seems to face Kansas City or Cleveland every time out and in fact he has in four of his last five and will do so again today. He’s gone seven in each of his last two against KC (five ERs), striking out 14 of 57 batters. Just as importantly, he’s walked just two. Important because he’s walked the park against nearly every other offense this season, but the Royals like to hack. Overall, he’s been an average arm at best with an extreme fly ball lean and some hard contact issues this season (88 mph aEV, 37.5% 95+ mph EV). The Royals have been formidable since the break.
Kevin Gausman had allowed 13 ERs in seven innings and four HRs in most recent start coming into his last outing. He struck out eight Rangers and allowed just one run over six innings. In fact, he leads the slate with a 30.6 K% and 14.1 SwStr% over the last month. The significant change in approach has been more splitters which are generating more chases. Obviously, not everything has gone perfectly as the contact authority has been hit or miss. He’s still making mistakes and his 9.5% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board against an offense with an 18.0 HR/FB vs RHP, but it’s also a park upgrade against an offense with a strikeout rate above 24% at home and against RHP.
Zack Grienke struck out a season low three batters in Cincinnati last time out, while his strikeouts and swinging strike rate are down over the last month or so, though still above league average. Batters likely understand what he’s doing at this point and have just stopped chasing the slider so often. He’s responded by throwing even fewer fastballs, but more in favor of changeups except for two outings against the Rockies recently (though the sample is small enough that it could be just matchup related). The overall results have been fine as he hasn’t been facing top quality offenses and it may have helped him to limit hard contact (2.3 Hard-Soft% last five starts). He gets another below average offense here, but one that makes a decent amount of contact in a park that make it closer to a neutral spot.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Brad Peacock (.294 – 79.2% – 1.7) struck out nine of 25 Mariners last time out on a 6.4 SwStr%. That’s two straight below 7%. He’s allowed one HR in 10 starts. That said, he’s been one of the top contact managers in the league. His 24.7% 95+ mph EV is best on the board and the Phillies have a 23.5 K% vs RHP. The cost of business has gone up significantly on him though and the 13.2 BB% is more troubling if we have to concern ourselves with his SwStr% as well. The track record is only two months long.
Mike Leake (.293 – 72.5% – 14.0) is right in line with the league norms at this point, so what’s the issue with his ERA more than half a run below his estimators? How about 10 unearned runs (18.5%), including eight over his last three starts. He lasted just two innings (18 batters) in his last start, striking out none.
R.A. Dickey (.276 – 74.9% – 13.6) has an unearned run issue too (10%). His 1.80 ERA over his last six starts comes with an 87.7 LOB% and 4.7 HR/FB as well. He has been an excellent contact manager this year (85.7 mph aEV, 28.2% 95+ mph EV, 3.2 Hard-Soft%), so he can be useful with strikeouts near a league average rate, which they’ve been. Arizona gives him one of the toughest matchups on the board though.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hyun-Jin Ryu may have one of those phantom Dodger injuries which allows them to manipulate the 10 day DL to move around their rotation. It’s listed as a foot issue and the tip off may be that he has not gone on a minor league rehab start. He has missed a month though and there should be some concern about his workload as the Dodgers regularly pulled him in the mid-80s prior to his DL stint. He does have three starts of 100+ pitches this year, but no other ones above 87 since April. The Twins have just a 9.2 HR/FB vs LHP.
Vince Velasquez pitched well in his first start back from a long DL stint (6 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 4 K), but had just a 2.5 SwStr% and faces his old team. The Astros have been the equivalent of facing a league average offense at Coors this year and his 89.6 mph aEV, 43.1% 95+ mph EV are highest on the board.
Clayton Richard is not missing nearly enough bats anymore to be of use in a daily fantasy setting, while his ground ball rate is just 51.9% (35.4 Hard%) over his last four starts.
Josh Tomlin has leadership qualities that make him the pitcher the Tribe would most like to have on the mound in a big spot according to the broadcast team in his most recent start in San Francisco. It’s just that the offense has to score a few more runs for him, they added. If your chosen daily fantasy site rewards points for leadership, he may be useable here for $8K.
Blake Snell has walked 12 of 63 batters since returning to the majors, so even his 27 K%, which is almost a stretch of his SwStr%, has not exceeded six strikeouts in any of his three starts. The O’s have a K-BB% exceeding 17% on the road and vs LHP, but a 41.4 Hard% over the last week.
Francisco Liriano has struck out just 16 of his last 122 batters. Too bad because the A’s strike out about a quarter of the time.
Tim Adleman misses bats, but is in a difficult spot in Cleveland and has allowed a HR in 10 straight starts. He takes his 35.6 GB% to Cleveland against the third best offense against fly ball pitchers (117 sOPS+).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.9% | Road | 21.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.2% | 8.1% | Road | 21.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.2% | 4.3% | Road | 12.0% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.8% | 13.5% | Home | 24.0% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 17.7% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.6% | Road | 25.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.5% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 24.5% | 10.6% | Road | 27.9% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.7% | 7.2% | Home | 16.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.1% | Road | 23.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 16.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.6% | 11.3% | Home | 23.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 20.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.9% | Road | 20.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.1% | Home | 21.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.5% | 6.6% | Road | 21.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.6% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.6% | Home | 25.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 2.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.4% | Road | 19.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.8% | 2.8% | Home | 16.5% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.3% | Home | 26.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.1% | Road | 20.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 7.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.8% | Home | 22.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.5% | 8.3% | Home | 14.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 14.9% | 8.4% | Home | 17.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.4% | Road | 14.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.7% | 5.1% | Home | 16.0% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 14.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.7% | Road | 16.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.1% | Road | 16.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.4% | 8.5% | Home | 31.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.4% | 5.7% | Home | 23.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 22.0% | 9.6% | LH | 25.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 10.6% | RH | 22.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 6.2% | LH | 24.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 8.3% | RH | 23.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.6% |
| Mets | Road | 20.2% | 8.8% | LH | 22.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 4.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 8.7% | LH | 18.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 4.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.5% | 8.9% | LH | 25.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.9% |
| Giants | Home | 19.6% | 6.7% | RH | 19.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.9% |
| Twins | Road | 22.6% | 9.0% | LH | 20.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.4% |
| Padres | Home | 24.9% | 8.5% | RH | 25.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 8.9% | LH | 15.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | RH | 21.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.6% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 7.5% | RH | 21.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.7% | 6.2% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Home | 24.8% | 9.7% | RH | 24.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 6.0% | RH | 22.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.3% | LH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | RH | 18.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.3% | 9.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.7% | 9.8% | RH | 22.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 7.6% | RH | 22.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.0% | 9.3% | RH | 23.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 28.6% | 11.8% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.8% | RH | 19.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Road | 17.7% | 8.7% | RH | 17.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.8% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 2017 | 36.0% | 9.1% | 18.5% | Road | 30.3% | 10.6% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.9% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 2017 | 28.9% | 18.0% | 11.3% | Road | 26.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.8% | 13.6% | 11.1% | Road | 35.8% | 12.1% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 17.6% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 33.7% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 2017 | 37.2% | 12.7% | 17.7% | Home | 33.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 27.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2017 | 27.3% | 1.7% | -1.3% | Road | 30.0% | 8.1% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | -12.2% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.6% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 2017 | 30.0% | 18.2% | 12.5% | Road | 25.0% | 25.0% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.2% | 9.8% | 2017 | 32.9% | 18.8% | 15.1% | Home | 32.1% | 10.0% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 38.6% | 18.2% | 20.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 2017 | 28.5% | 13.2% | 11.6% | Road | 28.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 12.0% | 15.5% | Home | 33.7% | 10.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 11.1% | -12.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.5% | 17.1% | 8.9% | Road | 31.9% | 14.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 9.1% | -11.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 21.3% | 15.6% | 2017 | 34.1% | 21.7% | 13.6% | Home | 34.9% | 30.8% | 15.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 2017 | 33.7% | 16.7% | 13.0% | Road | 34.9% | 18.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.0% | 7.5% | 16.9% | 2017 | 30.9% | 6.1% | 14.6% | Home | 30.5% | 8.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 2017 | 29.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | Road | 34.2% | 14.7% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.5% | 16.3% | 19.5% | 2017 | 36.1% | 14.5% | 22.8% | Home | 32.8% | 18.2% | 20.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 2017 | 37.0% | 9.9% | 20.7% | Home | 33.8% | 10.8% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.7% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 2017 | 33.5% | 16.0% | 15.6% | Road | 33.3% | 16.2% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 62.5% | 28.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.1% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 2017 | 36.3% | 17.6% | 13.9% | Home | 30.0% | 10.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 2017 | 35.5% | 11.3% | 21.4% | Home | 30.9% | 11.8% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 13.3% | 19.5% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.0% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 2017 | 32.1% | 12.5% | 15.3% | Home | 30.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 2017 | 33.1% | 11.3% | 17.4% | Road | 32.3% | 9.9% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 2017 | 31.8% | 14.0% | 15.9% | Home | 27.7% | 17.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 52.9% | 0.0% | 44.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 26.8% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 2017 | 26.9% | 13.6% | 3.2% | Road | 29.8% | 12.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 14.3% | 2.5% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 34.3% | 16.1% | 18.8% | 2017 | 33.5% | 17.9% | 16.8% | Road | 33.0% | 12.9% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 17.6% | 29.4% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.1% | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2017 | 36.9% | 21.8% | 23.1% | Home | 34.5% | 17.8% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 6.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 2017 | 34.9% | 14.3% | 12.2% | Home | 37.6% | 12.9% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 35.8% | 17.3% | 17.2% | LH | 30.3% | 14.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.9% | 16.7% | 12.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.2% | 12.5% | 13.0% | RH | 31.5% | 13.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.0% | 11.6% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.5% | 17.7% | 21.3% | RH | 35.6% | 15.2% | 20.1% | L7Days | 36.3% | 18.9% | 21.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.3% | 13.8% | 15.0% | LH | 35.5% | 13.7% | 17.5% | L7Days | 41.4% | 21.2% | 23.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.5% | 15.0% | 10.5% | RH | 30.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 13.9% | 8.9% | RH | 30.7% | 14.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% |
| Mets | Road | 36.7% | 15.7% | 19.2% | LH | 35.6% | 13.3% | 14.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 12.2% | 15.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.6% | 12.2% | 9.3% | LH | 29.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.1% | 12.7% | 16.2% | LH | 31.8% | 9.3% | 14.1% | L7Days | 27.3% | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Giants | Home | 25.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | RH | 28.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 3.2% | 6.4% |
| Twins | Road | 29.8% | 12.7% | 11.4% | LH | 28.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 32.3% | 7.7% | 16.2% |
| Padres | Home | 28.0% | 12.8% | 5.8% | RH | 28.4% | 13.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 31.9% | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.6% | 11.5% | 12.7% | LH | 31.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 46.6% | 14.2% | 33.4% | RH | 40.9% | 11.8% | 25.6% | L7Days | 32.6% | 13.0% | 16.3% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 13.9% | 11.4% | RH | 29.7% | 14.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 13.0% | 6.3% |
| Royals | Road | 31.7% | 14.7% | 11.7% | RH | 31.8% | 12.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.6% |
| Rays | Home | 37.5% | 16.1% | 19.6% | RH | 35.9% | 18.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 12.8% | 5.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.7% | 13.7% | 14.2% | RH | 31.3% | 13.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 32.1% | 6.1% | 14.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.5% | 14.5% | 9.3% | LH | 26.6% | 15.6% | 2.6% | L7Days | 33.8% | 19.1% | 11.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.9% | 12.3% | 10.2% | RH | 30.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.2% | 12.5% | 8.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.6% | 16.2% | 14.1% | RH | 30.9% | 14.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 40.1% | 17.6% | 28.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.3% | 11.5% | 8.0% | RH | 30.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 41.6% | 25.5% | 27.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 15.8% | 23.8% | RH | 35.8% | 15.1% | 18.6% | L7Days | 33.6% | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | RH | 33.7% | 11.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% |
| Astros | Road | 33.9% | 16.6% | 15.7% | RH | 33.8% | 16.3% | 16.4% | L7Days | 37.8% | 17.1% | 23.4% |
| Braves | Road | 31.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | RH | 30.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 30.7% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.60 | 11.5% | 7.6% | 1.51 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17.2% | 7.0% | 2.46 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 2.14 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 14.1% | 5.1% | 2.76 | 11.6% | 6.2% | 1.87 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.17 | 27.0% | 10.7% | 2.52 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 32.4% | 12.4% | 2.61 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 2.82 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 15.7% | 10.8% | 1.45 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 1.45 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.6% | 8.0% | 1.95 | 11.6% | 7.4% | 1.57 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.8% | 11.7% | 2.29 | 32.0% | 9.9% | 3.23 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.01 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 1.79 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.01 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 21.9% | 11.9% | 1.84 | 32.0% | 17.2% | 1.86 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.0% | 13.6% | 2.06 | 27.7% | 11.1% | 2.50 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 27.8% | 13.1% | 2.12 | 29.6% | 14.1% | 2.10 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.4% | 10.0% | 1.74 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 1.50 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.6% | 7.6% | 2.32 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.35 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.31 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 1.93 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 19.6% | 9.9% | 1.98 | 30.6% | 14.1% | 2.17 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.73 | |||
| Martin Perez | TEX | 15.2% | 7.5% | 2.03 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 1.21 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.64 | 13.9% | 5.7% | 2.44 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.3% | 7.0% | 1.90 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 1.94 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.98 | 9.4% | 6.8% | 1.38 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 15.5% | 8.6% | 1.80 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 1.88 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.8% | 11.0% | 1.98 | 23.5% | 11.6% | 2.03 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 23.7% | 9.8% | 2.42 | 19.1% | 2.5% | 7.64 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 27.9% | 13.3% | 2.10 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 2.27 |
There are no season long outliers to be concerned with today, while we’ve talked about the concerning ones (Peacock, Cole) already.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 6.75 | 5.45 | -1.3 | 5.64 | -1.11 | 4.88 | -1.87 | 7.14 | 0.39 | 3 | 4.93 | 1.93 | 4.63 | 1.63 | 3.15 | 0.15 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 4.67 | 4.7 | 0.03 | 4.47 | -0.2 | 4.97 | 0.3 | 5.92 | 1.25 | 3.6 | 5.47 | 1.87 | 5.33 | 1.73 | 4.85 | 1.25 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 8.19 | 4.96 | -3.23 | 4.9 | -3.29 | 4.88 | -3.31 | 7.45 | -0.74 | 11.25 | 4.79 | -6.46 | 4.8 | -6.45 | 3.03 | -8.22 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.98 | 5.47 | 0.49 | 5.31 | 0.33 | 5.17 | 0.19 | 4.75 | -0.23 | 5.79 | 5.44 | -0.35 | 5.45 | -0.34 | 5.15 | -0.64 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.49 | 3.8 | 1.31 | 3.72 | 1.23 | 2.38 | -0.11 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 1.88 | 4.61 | 2.73 | 4.58 | 2.7 | 2.65 | 0.77 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 2.77 | 4.52 | 1.75 | 4.12 | 1.35 | 4.61 | 1.84 | 4.23 | 1.46 | 2.77 | 4.52 | 1.75 | 4.12 | 1.35 | 4.61 | 1.84 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 5.35 | 4.33 | -1.02 | 4.05 | -1.3 | 4.53 | -0.82 | 6.43 | 1.08 | 9.72 | 5.15 | -4.57 | 5.38 | -4.34 | 6.51 | -3.21 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.66 | 3.99 | 0.33 | 4.21 | 0.55 | 4.13 | 0.47 | 3.06 | -0.60 | 5.06 | 4.34 | -0.72 | 4.4 | -0.66 | 4.84 | -0.22 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 6.15 | 5.14 | -1.01 | 5.16 | -0.99 | 4.91 | -1.24 | 5.95 | -0.20 | 7.06 | 5.75 | -1.31 | 5.96 | -1.1 | 5.14 | -1.92 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.18 | 3.98 | -0.2 | 3.78 | -0.4 | 4.21 | 0.03 | 3.48 | -0.70 | 3.86 | 3.24 | -0.62 | 3.1 | -0.76 | 3.12 | -0.74 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.21 | 4.09 | -0.12 | 4.01 | -0.2 | 5.01 | 0.8 | 4.80 | 0.59 | 3.18 | 2.72 | -0.46 | 2.11 | -1.07 | 3.15 | -0.03 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.37 | 3.57 | 0.2 | 3.37 | 0 | 3.7 | 0.33 | 2.87 | -0.50 | 1.96 | 3.09 | 1.13 | 3.01 | 1.05 | 3.18 | 1.22 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.05 | 3.66 | 0.61 | 3.45 | 0.4 | 2.59 | -0.46 | 2.89 | -0.16 | 2.43 | 3.37 | 0.94 | 3.27 | 0.84 | 2.22 | -0.21 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.81 | 4.89 | 0.08 | 5.25 | 0.44 | 4.45 | -0.36 | 4.96 | 0.15 | 4.76 | 4.85 | 0.09 | 5.07 | 0.31 | 4.46 | -0.3 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.74 | 4.27 | -1.47 | 4.15 | -1.59 | 4.28 | -1.46 | 6.36 | 0.62 | 4.74 | 4.44 | -0.3 | 4.36 | -0.38 | 3.92 | -0.82 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.54 | 4.79 | 0.25 | 4.87 | 0.33 | 4.27 | -0.27 | 3.89 | -0.65 | 4.6 | 4.84 | 0.24 | 4.49 | -0.11 | 4.45 | -0.15 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.11 | 4.76 | -1.35 | 4.72 | -1.39 | 5.06 | -1.05 | 5.79 | -0.32 | 4.97 | 3.18 | -1.79 | 3.11 | -1.86 | 4.06 | -0.91 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.09 | 4.37 | 0.28 | 4.09 | 0 | 4.51 | 0.42 | 4.90 | 0.81 | |||||||
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.72 | 5.04 | 0.32 | 4.67 | -0.05 | 4.38 | -0.34 | 5.58 | 0.86 | 4.82 | 5.56 | 0.74 | 5.18 | 0.36 | 4.76 | -0.06 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.49 | 5.49 | 0 | 5.25 | -0.24 | 5.08 | -0.41 | 7.71 | 2.22 | 5.3 | 5.56 | 0.26 | 5.07 | -0.23 | 4.65 | -0.65 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.89 | 5.49 | 0.6 | 5.56 | 0.67 | 5.14 | 0.25 | 6.31 | 1.42 | 1.5 | 5.98 | 4.48 | 5.37 | 3.87 | 4.48 | 2.98 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.39 | 4.3 | 0.91 | 3.99 | 0.6 | 4.02 | 0.63 | 4.77 | 1.38 | 4.74 | 5.44 | 0.7 | 5.09 | 0.35 | 5.3 | 0.56 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.14 | 5.09 | 0.95 | 5.07 | 0.93 | 5.06 | 0.92 | 5.59 | 1.45 | 2.18 | 4.41 | 2.23 | 4.41 | 2.23 | 3.36 | 1.18 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.96 | 4.55 | -0.41 | 4.91 | -0.05 | 5.62 | 0.66 | 6.98 | 2.02 | 6.75 | 4.21 | -2.54 | 4.66 | -2.09 | 6.82 | 0.07 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.14 | 4.24 | -0.9 | 4.15 | -0.99 | 5.19 | 0.05 | 4.37 | -0.77 | 1.5 | 3.64 | 2.14 | 3.5 | 2 | 4.48 | 2.98 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 2.97 | 3.34 | 0.37 | 3.23 | 0.26 | 3.3 | 0.33 | 2.61 | -0.36 | 2.25 | 3.94 | 1.69 | 3.74 | 1.49 | 3.19 | 0.94 |
Jacob deGrom has an unsustainable .209 BABIP and 92.7 LOB% over his last seven starts, but, again, a 20 K-BB%. He’s been very good and borderline great, but the ERA has been better than elite.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.300 | 0.007 | 41.8% | 0.182 | 13.6% | 84.4% | 86.3 | 6.10% | 36.00% | 114 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.302 | 0.260 | -0.042 | 49.2% | 0.209 | 6.7% | 89.1% | 87.2 | 6.30% | 33.90% | 301 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.368 | 0.07 | 46.5% | 0.204 | 11.1% | 92.7% | 87.5 | 6.70% | 38.70% | 253 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.295 | 0.011 | 39.6% | 0.208 | 15.9% | 84.2% | 86.7 | 5.50% | 34.10% | 164 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 41.6% | 0.201 | 10.2% | 80.7% | 85.7 | 3.20% | 24.70% | 154 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.184 | -0.108 | 50.0% | 0.225 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 86.6 | 7.50% | 30.00% | 40 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.307 | 0.361 | 0.054 | 57.1% | 0.213 | 4.7% | 90.2% | 85.7 | 4.20% | 31.20% | 404 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.278 | -0.027 | 35.1% | 0.205 | 5.3% | 81.8% | 87.7 | 8.70% | 31.40% | 172 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.036 | 43.0% | 0.195 | 8.4% | 88.4% | 87 | 7.10% | 32.30% | 226 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.295 | -0.013 | 47.5% | 0.197 | 8.5% | 87.0% | 85.2 | 8.10% | 32.80% | 369 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.280 | 0.317 | 0.037 | 46.8% | 0.213 | 7.2% | 81.9% | 86.5 | 7.30% | 31.80% | 220 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.289 | -0.031 | 46.6% | 0.201 | 10.2% | 79.5% | 85.9 | 6.40% | 29.20% | 329 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.279 | 0.299 | 0.02 | 43.6% | 0.226 | 13.4% | 81.1% | 86.5 | 2.00% | 30.10% | 246 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.306 | 0.007 | 37.0% | 0.202 | 8.7% | 88.2% | 87.5 | 7.90% | 33.10% | 354 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.303 | 0.343 | 0.04 | 39.5% | 0.253 | 5.1% | 91.2% | 88.1 | 6.80% | 34.90% | 338 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.307 | -0.002 | 34.0% | 0.251 | 10.6% | 87.0% | 88 | 7.70% | 37.50% | 349 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.367 | 0.052 | 42.3% | 0.23 | 10.1% | 86.0% | 88.5 | 9.50% | 37.60% | 346 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.259 | -0.024 | 51.1% | 0.195 | 11.8% | 89.3% | 84.8 | 5.60% | 30.20% | 179 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.348 | 0.059 | 45.5% | 0.256 | 7.2% | 89.8% | 87.4 | 5.90% | 35.20% | 341 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.317 | 0.328 | 0.011 | 42.5% | 0.24 | 8.9% | 91.8% | 87.7 | 5.30% | 34.10% | 340 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.300 | 0.012 | 38.4% | 0.218 | 8.7% | 89.9% | 87.9 | 6.80% | 36.20% | 293 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.293 | -0.001 | 55.8% | 0.212 | 4.7% | 90.2% | 87.3 | 5.30% | 36.10% | 377 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.276 | -0.016 | 47.9% | 0.178 | 12.8% | 84.6% | 85.7 | 5.40% | 28.20% | 372 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.293 | 0.281 | -0.012 | 35.6% | 0.189 | 8.9% | 82.6% | 86.8 | 6.50% | 32.40% | 275 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 43.4% | 0.22 | 10.9% | 85.9% | 89.6 | 8.10% | 43.10% | 160 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.279 | -0.015 | 47.0% | 0.175 | 10.7% | 85.9% | 85.4 | 6.90% | 27.40% | 321 |
Kevin Gausman allowed a lot of hard contact, which has resulted in a slightly elevated BABIP, but not an otherwise terrible profile. The defense does not do him any favors either.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (2) is in a tough spot against a well-disciplined Boston lineup against LHP, but he’s tied for the top SwStr% on the board over the last month (14.1%) and has been pitching quite well for a while now.
Value Tier Two
Chris Smith is very cheap and potentially competent against a below average and slumping offense in Toronto.
Gerrit Cole (3) has handled contact well and while we’re a bit skeptical of recent success, he’s in the top run prevention spot on the board without question in San Francisco.
Jacob deGrom (1) continues to go deep into games with strong peripherals and is in a high upside spot against the Padres. They haven’t been terrible recently though and he carries the highest price on the board on either site by a fair margin.
Value Tier Three
Eduardo Rodriguez gets a park upgrade and while there were a few issues in his return from the DL, strikeouts were not one of them. He has quite a bit of upside for less than $8K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Justin Verlander has been frequently over-valued for the large majority of the season, but he has been good against the Royals. It makes some sense when you think about their offensive profile. There are not a lot of teams I’d trust a nearly $9K price tag for him here though and the Royals have been swinging the bat better.
Zack Greinke (4) is not missing bats at as high a rate as earlier in the season and is the second most expensive pitcher on the board, but he’s still been pretty good and should be at least useable on this slate against the Braves.
Kevin Gausman is still a high risk arm, but he’s been generating strikeouts at an elite rate over the last month and is in a high upside spot tonight. Using him likely necessitates a hedge with some Rays bats in another lineup, but either side could win a contest for someone tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window