Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, September 5th
This article is being written Sunday night in order to be available for the full day slate Monday. As such, the written portion contains stats through Saturday, which shouldn’t be that big a deal at this point in the season except mostly for the most recent week. Stats will be updated in the morning before publishing though, so it’s only the notes that are a day behind statistically.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -6.6 | 3.97 | 6.31 | 1.68 | 0.95 | 4.02 | 3.86 | PIT | 108 | 94 | 85 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -1.6 | 4.19 | 6.02 | 1.23 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 4.37 | CIN | 96 | 90 | 97 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -1.4 | 4.26 | 5.7 | 1.88 | 1.37 | 3.65 | 5.44 | SFO | 84 | 99 | 39 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -1 | 4.71 | 5.36 | 1.14 | 0.95 | 5.68 | 3.99 | STL | 106 | 109 | 73 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 2.3 | 2.99 | 6.87 | 1.1 | 0.99 | 3.09 | 3.01 | DET | 102 | 100 | 135 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.4 | 3.64 | 6.57 | 1.55 | 0.9 | 3.64 | 3.64 | SEA | 113 | 101 | 97 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4 | 3.74 | 5.62 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 3.92 | 2.53 | SDG | 94 | 105 | 62 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | -6.4 | 5.09 | 4.91 | 1.07 | 0.86 | 5.09 | 7.8 | BOS | 105 | 114 | 133 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -4.1 | 3.64 | 6.42 | 2.04 | 0.9 | 3.61 | 5.18 | TEX | 90 | 98 | 180 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8 | 3.87 | 5.79 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 4.34 | 4.88 | MIN | 96 | 97 | 126 |
| Jake Esch | FLA | 4.5 | 5.77 | 4.1 | 3.33 | 1 | 5.77 | PHI | 87 | 82 | 26 | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -1.4 | 4.04 | 6.06 | 1.02 | 1 | 4.34 | 5.77 | FLA | 89 | 93 | 74 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.7 | 5.08 | 5.98 | 0.67 | 0.95 | 6.04 | 4.69 | OAK | 82 | 88 | 22 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -4.9 | 5.18 | 4.11 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 5.67 | 7.18 | KAN | 79 | 82 | 74 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -5.8 | 3.74 | 6.71 | 0.74 | 0.99 | 4.09 | 3.51 | CHW | 94 | 89 | 109 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3 | 3.68 | 5.62 | 1.17 | 0.9 | 4.08 | 4.16 | ARI | 93 | 88 | 96 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 8.9 | 3.58 | 5.92 | 1.7 | 1.05 | 3.89 | 3.69 | MIL | 94 | 87 | 86 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.5 | 3.53 | 6.3 | 1.51 | 1.02 | 3.45 | 3.55 | TOR | 94 | 103 | 76 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -1.2 | 3.95 | 5.15 | 1.29 | 0.97 | 4.06 | 3.39 | BAL | 96 | 110 | 93 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 4.7 | 4.54 | 5.9 | 0.92 | 1.37 | 4.98 | 3.48 | COL | 100 | 90 | 138 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3.1 | 2.85 | 6.83 | 0.74 | 1.02 | 3.04 | 1.89 | ATL | 84 | 86 | 132 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 6.4 | 4.88 | 4.82 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 5.07 | 2.71 | HOU | 104 | 100 | 105 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 8.3 | 4 | 5.75 | 1 | 1.03 | 4.41 | 4.27 | CLE | 123 | 104 | 137 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.1 | 4.77 | 6.26 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 4.74 | 5.37 | NYY | 100 | 92 | 54 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.2 | 6.16 | 6. | 0.82 | 1.02 | 6.11 | NYM | 92 | 93 | 102 | |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | -0.3 | 3.47 | 5.62 | 2.7 | 1.02 | 4.52 | 4.98 | WAS | 97 | 95 | 49 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.8 | 4.35 | 5.39 | 1.52 | 0.97 | 4.41 | 4.96 | TAM | 97 | 99 | 114 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -8.7 | 4.15 | 5.77 | 1.5 | 1.05 | 3.87 | 2.92 | CHC | 108 | 102 | 86 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -9.5 | 3.54 | 6.58 | 1.43 | 0.9 | 3.23 | 5.73 | LOS | 103 | 108 | 110 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | -8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | ANA | 100 | 102 | 166 |
Chris Sale has failed to go seven innings in just seven of 26 starts and only missing by one out of doing so in all of his last six. His strikeouts and SwStr% are up over the last month with the six punchouts accumulated in his last start, his lowest mark in six August starts. His 19.5 K-BB% this season is his lowest since 2012, but still 12th best in baseball. Interestingly, his ground ball rate was below 40% in five starts last month, though he only allowed two HRs. Detroit is a predominantly RH lineup, but fare just average against LHP, despite hitting the ball hard 34.4% of the time.
Cole Hamels walked and struck out four apiece last time out because that’s exactly what you’d expect him to do after striking out 18 of his previous 53 batters with two walks. Although it’s been an up and down thing, his strikeouts and HRs are pretty much in line with his career rates, it’s the 9.0 BB% that’s a career high. He’s very hit or miss and faces an offense with a 16.3 HR/FB at home and 16.5 HR/FB vs LHP for the second straight start, but with a major park upgrade.
Drew Pomeranz returns to where he was dealt from with an ERA and estimators right around four since the trade with a BABIP 40 points higher and half of his HRs allowed this season since the trade. He has struck out 19 of his last 53 (both against the Rays) and faces an offense that strikes out quite a bit themselves (25.1% vs LHP) in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball.
Kenta Maeda pitched very well in Colorado last time out after walking and striking out four Giants before that after having previously dominated the Phillies. Two of his five August starts were in Colorado and they were two of his better starts, helping him increase his strikeout rate. The main issue is that he did not go past five innings in three of his five starts and made it barely past 100 pitches twice, so perhaps the Dodgers are looking to cut down on his workload as it might be more than what he experienced in Japan. Nobody can argue with the results though and hosting Arizona is a nice spot to be in. They have a 15.6 K-BB% vs RHP with below average power on the road.
Kyle Hendricks has an above average 16.0 K-BB%, but has been the most contact dominant pitcher in baseball with an above average ground ball rate (48.7%) and is the only qualified pitcher in baseball that has generated more weak contact (26.1%) than hard (24.5%). There are no more workload questions either as he’s gone at least seven innings in four of his last six starts and at least six in every one of them. Contact domination is likely a skill that will benefit him on a trip to Milwaukee as he faces a below average offense, but one with power (16.4 HR/FB at home). They do strike out a ton though (26.0% at home, 25.7% vs RHP).
Mashiro Tanaka is pitching his best baseball of the season and maybe even his career, though his giants spike in strikeouts over the last month comes with actual downward movement in his SwStr%. Let’s say we buy into half of it because his K% was probably too low for his SwStr% to start with. He is coming off three straight road starts in pitcher friendly parks (at least as far as power goes) and returns home to face a dangerous Toronto team with a 15.4 HR/FB on the road and 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP. Seven of his 17 HRs have come at home to RHBs this season, but the Blue Jays also have a 22.7 K% vs RHP.
Matt Andriese has allowed nine HRs over his last five starts, but had to face Boston in each of his last two and allowed four of those at Yankee Stadium. He’s also struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced with a double digit SwStr%. He hasn’t even been allowing that much hard contact (27.7% over that span). He is facing the Orioles, another powerful offense (17.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but at least he’s doing it at home. The Orioles have a 16.2 K-BB% with reduced power (14.3 HR/FB) on the road.
Max Scherzer has struck out 21 of his last 53 batters and is just so obvious today with double digit strikeouts in five of his last eight starts and a 15.9 SwStr% over the last month. His 26.2 K-BB% is now just a few ticks of the major league lead (unless Kershaw regains qualified status). He’s even cut down on his HRs (just two over his last five starts). He’s up against an improved Atlanta offense that actually gave him some trouble three starts back and has just a 14.8 K% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.261 – 84.1% – 13.7) finds himself in this section for the first time all season because as he allowed just three HRs in August, his strikeout rate dipped below average and his strand rate jumped to 90%.
Felix Hernandez (.260 – 76.5% – 14.4) has missed more bats over the last month, but his walk rate has spiraled out of control at 11% in August. In fact, he’s struck out just eight of his last 48, while walking six. He’s not in a bad spot here in a favorable park, but the Rangers are suddenly one of the hottest offenses in baseball against a high priced pitcher with below average estimators.
Bartolo Colon (.297 – 76.6% – 11.7) can probably continue to defy most of the laws that apply to the rest of the human population and end up pitching decently here. In fact, he’s had just a 69% strand rate since the break, so we can’t even blame that entirely for the gap between his ERA and estimators anymore. Nearly 12% of his runs have been unearned though and he still has the lowest SwStr% in baseball, but has now dropped to 10th in hard hit rate (35.3%). The Reds are not a bad matchup in most parks, but they do have some power in a power friendly park and without a lot of upside, this is probably not the park to utilize him in.
Chad Kuhl (.262 – 75.1% – 10.7) has just a 9.6 K-BB%, but has been dependent on a low BABIP to keep his ERA below four. It’s a rough spot against the Cardinals today.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ryan Weber has a reasonable 11.4 K-BB% in 50 major league innings and aside from a few HRs, didn’t pitch exceptionally poorly in five major league starts last year. All of his 22.1 innings this year have come in relief though, so he may not be stretched out for more than five innings, if even that. In a marginal spot in the afternoon against an offense that is traveling off a Sunday night game, I’m almost inclined to consider him for the min-price on DraftKings just due to the circumstances.
Zach Davies has struck out 17 of his last 54 batters at home, coming off a couple of rough starts and may have some value at a cost below $8K here, but it’s still a tough park in Milwaukee and a difficult offense that he is facing.
Adam Wainwright pitched his first strong game in a while, striking out seven Brewers over seven innings on just three hits without a walk. Normally excellent control had been a bit of an issue for him with a 10.4 BB% in five August starts prior. Control has been one issue. Another has been the lowest ground ball rate of his career (45%) and a LD rate (24.5%) that has increased in each of the last four full seasons. Most of it is very subtle, but he’s declined in just about every area this year. I’m fine with still calling him a league average pitcher overall, but it makes him difficult to pay that average price tag for in all except the best situations.
Justin Verlander has the seventh best K-BB (20.4%) in baseball this year and the second best mark of his career. He is a quality pitcher, but an extreme fly ball one who has allowed 25 HRs on just a 10.8 HR/FB. He’s in a decent spot against the White Sox, but continues to be a bit over-valued, especially on DraftKings ($12.4K).
Zack Greinke struck out just one Giant in his last start and has just a 19.3 K% since returning from the DL, as he travels to face his old team, who have a 15.5 HR/FB at home and have been pounding RHP (34.5 Hard%, 15.6 HR/FB).
Mike Clevinger has pitched entirely out of the bullpen over the last three weeks, pitching a total of five innings since August 18th. Considering he never completed six innings in any of his five major league starts with two lasting less than five innings, I wouldn’t expect him to go very deep here. A league average strikeout rate thus far is undone by a 12.7 BB%.
Mike Fiers has pitched more competently recently, but finds himself in a terrible spot in Cleveland.
Jerad Eickhoff is in a nice spot in Miami tonight, but had a poor August and has always struggled a bit more on the road.
Jake Esch may have the top matchup on the board, but combined a low strikeout rate with a mediocre walk rate in the minors the last few seasons and had just a 5.0 K-BB% with a 4.90 FIP at AAA at the time of a promotion that nobody could have been expecting at age 26.
Matt Moore
Jose Berrios went to AAA for one start and struck out 14 of 29 batters. He hasn’t been nearly as successful in the majors without being able to find the plate. He had walked nine of his previous 48 batters before the short demotion.
Robert Stephenson walked and struck out four each of the 50 batters he faced in two April starts and had a K-BB below 10% for the second consecutive AAA season this year. Double digit walk rates generally don’t translate well to the majors.
Raul Alcantara has just eight starts at AAA under his belt. He hasn’t struck out many batters in his trip through the minors, but does have good control. He debuts against one of the hottest offenses in baseball with a 15.9 K% vs RHP.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.7% | Road | 19.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 16.2% | 3.7% | Road | 13.5% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 3.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.8% | Home | 18.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 15.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.6% | Home | 11.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 8.7% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.9% | 5.4% | Home | 28.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 6.2% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 7.7% | Road | 23.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.7% | 9.2% | Road | 25.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 5.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 14.8% | 10.7% | Home | 15.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 4.8% | 16.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.2% | Home | 22.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.4% | Road | 21.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Jake Esch | Marlins | L2 Years | 9.5% | 14.3% | Home | L14 Days | 9.5% | 14.3% | ||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.8% | 5.8% | Road | 18.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 6.5% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 13.6% | 5.5% | Road | 9.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 12.6% | Home | 17.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 18.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 23.8% | 5.9% | Road | 21.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 30.1% | 2.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.8% | Home | 24.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.2% | 5.9% | Road | 20.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.7% | 4.3% | Home | 22.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 2.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 5.8% | Home | 19.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 4.3% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.6% | Road | 18.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 5.2% | Home | 31.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 1.9% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 20.4% | 12.7% | Home | 19.6% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.1% | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.7% | Road | 14.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 9.1% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 8.0% | 8.0% | Home | 8.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Ryan Weber | Braves | L2 Years | 15.2% | 3.8% | Road | 5.7% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.4% | 10.1% | Road | 20.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.8% | Home | 21.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 5.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.1% | 4.8% | Road | 23.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 20.0% | 9.0% | RH | 20.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.0% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.1% |
| Giants | Road | 18.6% | 8.5% | RH | 17.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.3% | 8.7% | RH | 21.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.9% | 10.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 7.7% | LH | 20.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.5% | 8.8% | LH | 21.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Home | 24.1% | 8.3% | LH | 25.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 31.8% | 5.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.1% | 8.6% | RH | 18.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 9.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.6% | 6.2% | RH | 19.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Home | 20.2% | 7.8% | RH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.1% | 6.6% | RH | 22.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.4% | 5.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 7.5% | RH | 19.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.2% | 6.3% | RH | 18.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.1% | 6.1% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 21.8% | 7.8% | RH | 22.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.0% | 10.4% | RH | 25.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 10.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.9% | 9.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 9.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.1% | 6.9% | RH | 21.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.8% | 9.2% | LH | 22.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.0% | 8.1% | RH | 19.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.2% | 13.2% |
| Astros | Road | 22.0% | 9.1% | RH | 23.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 10.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 9.7% | RH | 20.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 15.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.8% | 8.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 7.3% | RH | 21.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 8.9% | RH | 19.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 4.6% |
| Rays | Home | 25.1% | 7.9% | RH | 23.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.7% | 9.6% | RH | 21.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.2% | 8.3% | RH | 20.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 16.3% | 7.6% | RH | 15.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.4% | 5.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 2016 | 31.2% | 9.2% | 12.5% | Road | 31.0% | 14.6% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 9.1% | 13.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 2016 | 35.3% | 11.4% | 18.7% | Road | 30.7% | 10.0% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 2016 | 30.3% | 15.6% | 13.0% | Home | 32.4% | 13.2% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 33.3% | 2.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 2016 | 31.1% | 10.7% | 13.2% | Home | 35.4% | 12.0% | 23.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 25.0% | 9.6% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.9% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 2016 | 29.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | Home | 26.7% | 17.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.0% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2016 | 30.3% | 12.9% | 9.1% | Road | 28.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 2016 | 29.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% | Road | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 6.7% | 29.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 2016 | 33.2% | 11.4% | 19.8% | Home | 26.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 25.0% | 27.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.1% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 2016 | 27.4% | 14.4% | 10.7% | Home | 28.1% | 12.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 22.2% | 5.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 35.8% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 2016 | 36.9% | 13.7% | 19.1% | Road | 34.6% | 14.2% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| Jake Esch | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.3% | 33.3% | 12.5% | 2016 | 31.3% | 33.3% | 12.5% | Home | L14 Days | 31.3% | 33.3% | 12.5% | |||
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2016 | 31.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | Road | 36.0% | 11.5% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 5.0% | 8.1% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 2016 | 35.0% | 12.6% | 16.9% | Road | 33.6% | 11.7% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 11.8% | 7.5% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 36.9% | 17.0% | 20.5% | 2016 | 36.9% | 17.0% | 20.5% | Home | 38.3% | 12.5% | 26.6% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 12.5% | 21.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 2016 | 28.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% | Road | 22.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 9.4% | 22.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 2016 | 29.6% | 12.3% | 9.1% | Home | 28.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 2016 | 24.6% | 9.7% | -1.5% | Road | 24.5% | 11.5% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 6.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 2016 | 33.5% | 10.8% | 16.4% | Home | 34.6% | 17.1% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 2016 | 33.6% | 11.7% | 18.1% | Home | 30.5% | 11.5% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 15.4% | 12.1% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 2016 | 31.3% | 10.6% | 14.5% | Road | 29.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 0.0% | -9.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 2016 | 29.4% | 12.1% | 6.9% | Home | 27.7% | 10.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 2016 | 31.4% | 10.8% | 14.3% | Home | 32.2% | 5.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 2016 | 36.4% | 15.4% | 19.4% | Road | 32.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.5% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 2016 | 30.6% | 15.3% | 8.0% | Road | 26.3% | 11.7% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 34.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 2016 | 34.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | Home | 34.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Ryan Weber | Braves | L2 Years | 31.0% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 2016 | 32.6% | 13.6% | 18.6% | Road | 33.3% | 18.2% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.9% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 2016 | 31.6% | 11.5% | 13.5% | Road | 27.5% | 12.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 11.1% | 10.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 2016 | 33.3% | 12.7% | 12.5% | Home | 35.0% | 15.1% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 21.4% | 20.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 27.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2016 | 30.1% | 11.3% | 8.0% | Road | 26.8% | 8.8% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 31.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | RH | 30.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% |
| Reds | Home | 30.5% | 13.6% | 13.8% | RH | 30.6% | 12.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Giants | Road | 31.9% | 10.4% | 12.2% | RH | 29.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.7% | 3.7% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.2% | 15.7% | 16.0% | RH | 34.3% | 15.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.1% | 13.8% | 15.0% | LH | 34.4% | 12.3% | 16.6% | L7Days | 31.0% | 16.1% | 9.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.1% | 16.4% | 12.7% | LH | 30.4% | 16.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 34.0% | 12.2% | 16.1% |
| Padres | Home | 30.5% | 12.7% | 11.3% | LH | 32.1% | 15.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.2% | 11.8% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.6% | 13.2% | 14.2% | RH | 34.8% | 13.2% | 15.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 11.5% | 16.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.2% | 14.7% | 12.1% | RH | 30.8% | 14.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 39.4% | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| Twins | Home | 32.3% | 12.0% | 14.9% | RH | 31.7% | 12.6% | 13.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | RH | 29.0% | 12.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.3% | 5.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | RH | 29.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | RH | 29.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| Royals | Road | 28.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | RH | 30.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 31.4% | 10.3% | 14.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.1% | 12.5% | 8.4% | RH | 29.1% | 11.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 33.0% | 17.7% | 17.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.7% | 11.8% | 13.0% | RH | 32.6% | 12.1% | 15.5% | L7Days | 34.3% | 8.9% | 18.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.3% | 16.4% | 16.9% | RH | 32.3% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.6% | 15.3% | 12.9% | RH | 33.2% | 15.7% | 14.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.8% | 14.3% | 12.2% | RH | 33.0% | 17.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 38.4% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.2% | 16.1% | 19.0% | LH | 32.7% | 14.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 36.1% | 18.4% | 21.9% |
| Braves | Road | 28.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | RH | 28.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 30.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% |
| Astros | Road | 33.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | RH | 32.9% | 14.4% | 14.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 13.8% | 18.9% |
| Indians | Home | 31.4% | 14.1% | 15.4% | RH | 31.7% | 13.8% | 14.3% | L7Days | 32.7% | 8.9% | 19.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.4% | 13.9% | 10.4% | RH | 29.5% | 12.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.1% | 3.6% | 11.4% |
| Mets | Road | 32.7% | 13.8% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 13.4% | 14.9% | L7Days | 29.4% | 12.0% | 6.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | RH | 32.8% | 12.5% | 15.1% | L7Days | 26.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| Rays | Home | 33.7% | 13.2% | 14.5% | RH | 33.0% | 14.4% | 13.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.9% | 14.6% | 14.3% | RH | 31.6% | 12.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 32.9% | 15.5% | 15.5% | RH | 34.5% | 15.6% | 17.6% | L7Days | 32.5% | 20.6% | 15.6% |
| Angels | Road | 31.0% | 10.0% | 11.7% | RH | 31.2% | 10.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 23.2% | 17.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 17.1% | 9.4% | 1.82 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.1% | 5.5% | 2.93 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 2.39 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 16.9% | 8.9% | 1.90 | 12.4% | 8.2% | 1.51 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 16.2% | 8.9% | 1.82 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 1.84 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 25.2% | 10.9% | 2.31 | 27.6% | 12.9% | 2.14 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 23.6% | 12.3% | 1.92 | 24.4% | 12.0% | 2.03 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.38 | 27.3% | 12.7% | 2.15 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 12.9% | 8.5% | 1.52 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 1.78 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 1.90 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.34 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 1.99 |
| Jake Esch | FLA | 9.5% | 7.0% | 1.36 | 9.5% | 7.0% | 1.36 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.9% | 9.3% | 2.14 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.13 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 11.9% | 8.2% | 1.45 | 11.4% | 10.6% | 1.08 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 | 11.9% | 7.3% | 1.63 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.5% | 11.7% | 2.26 | 28.3% | 11.1% | 2.55 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 25.0% | 11.7% | 2.14 | 26.4% | 12.6% | 2.10 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 2.21 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.94 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 2.68 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 2.46 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.07 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.21 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.3% | 15.3% | 2.11 | 31.5% | 15.9% | 1.98 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.27 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.93 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 18.2% | 8.9% | 2.04 | 22.6% | 10.1% | 2.24 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 17.0% | 10.4% | 1.63 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 1.52 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 8.0% | 7.8% | 1.03 | |||
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 12.8% | 5.5% | 2.33 | 10.5% | 5.2% | 2.02 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.35 | 16.9% | 6.6% | 2.56 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 20.1% | 8.3% | 2.42 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 2.15 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 20.1% | 10.6% | 1.90 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.01 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.53 | 4.26 | -0.27 | 4.04 | -0.49 | 3.58 | -0.95 | 6.58 | 4.67 | -1.91 | 4.56 | -2.02 | 4.88 | -1.7 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.35 | 4.38 | 1.03 | 4.15 | 0.8 | 3.94 | 0.59 | 2.87 | 4.32 | 1.45 | 3.97 | 1.1 | 3.09 | 0.22 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.17 | 4.39 | -0.78 | 4.15 | -1.02 | 4.44 | -0.73 | 5.19 | 5.48 | 0.29 | 5.16 | -0.03 | 6.11 | 0.92 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 3.7 | 4.71 | 1.01 | 4.69 | 0.99 | 4.36 | 0.66 | 3.38 | 4.42 | 1.04 | 4.21 | 0.83 | 4.55 | 1.17 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.1 | 3.59 | 0.49 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 3.34 | 0.24 | 3.03 | 3.36 | 0.33 | 3.44 | 0.41 | 2.17 | -0.86 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.91 | 3.98 | 1.07 | 3.87 | 0.96 | 3.87 | 0.96 | 3.03 | 3.62 | 0.59 | 3.49 | 0.46 | 2.84 | -0.19 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3 | 3.77 | 0.77 | 3.72 | 0.72 | 3.56 | 0.56 | 2.64 | 3.28 | 0.64 | 3.5 | 0.86 | 3.28 | 0.64 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 6.26 | 5.75 | -0.51 | 5.78 | -0.48 | 5.53 | -0.73 | 8.68 | 6.11 | -2.57 | 6.09 | -2.59 | 6.9 | -1.78 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.48 | 4.42 | 0.94 | 4.28 | 0.8 | 4.44 | 0.96 | 3.51 | 4.28 | 0.77 | 4.15 | 0.64 | 4.34 | 0.83 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.66 | 4.14 | 0.48 | 4.59 | 0.93 | 4.72 | 1.06 | 2.2 | 4.95 | 2.75 | 5.31 | 3.11 | 3.73 | 1.53 |
| Jake Esch | FLA | 4.15 | 5.75 | 1.6 | 5.47 | 1.32 | 7.3 | 3.15 | 4.15 | 5.77 | 1.62 | 5.47 | 1.32 | 7.3 | 3.15 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.9 | 4.19 | 0.29 | 4.28 | 0.38 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 4.85 | 4.78 | -0.07 | 4.98 | 0.13 | 5.44 | 0.59 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 5.21 | 5.63 | 0.42 | 5.82 | 0.61 | 5.76 | 0.55 | 5.67 | 5.83 | 0.16 | 6 | 0.33 | 7.22 | 1.55 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 9.24 | 5.18 | -4.06 | 5.5 | -3.74 | 6.18 | -3.06 | 10.13 | 6.23 | -3.9 | 6.88 | -3.25 | 6.59 | -3.54 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.3 | 3.59 | 0.29 | 3.96 | 0.66 | 3.62 | 0.32 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 1.19 | 4.08 | 1.65 | 4.03 | 1.6 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.38 | 3.68 | 0.3 | 3.77 | 0.39 | 3.69 | 0.31 | 4.29 | 3.87 | -0.42 | 3.94 | -0.35 | 5.2 | 0.91 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 2.09 | 3.8 | 1.71 | 3.68 | 1.59 | 3.33 | 1.24 | 1.62 | 3.33 | 1.71 | 3.35 | 1.73 | 3.3 | 1.68 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.12 | 3.7 | 0.58 | 3.51 | 0.39 | 3.26 | 0.14 | 1.93 | 2.75 | 0.82 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 2.35 | 0.42 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 4.19 | 3.9 | -0.29 | 3.98 | -0.21 | 3.8 | -0.39 | 8.64 | 3.51 | -5.13 | 3.78 | -4.86 | 6.11 | -2.53 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 3.88 | 4.49 | 0.61 | 4.69 | 0.81 | 4.31 | 0.43 | 3.19 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 4.41 | 1.22 | 3.57 | 0.38 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.89 | 2.96 | 0.07 | 3.32 | 0.43 | 3.2 | 0.31 | 2.97 | 3.09 | 0.12 | 3.65 | 0.68 | 2.16 | -0.81 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 5.3 | 4.88 | -0.42 | 4.78 | -0.52 | 4.49 | -0.81 | 3 | 4.05 | 1.05 | 4.01 | 1.01 | 2.55 | -0.45 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.31 | 4.3 | -0.01 | 4.19 | -0.12 | 4.52 | 0.21 | 4.18 | 3.88 | -0.3 | 3.67 | -0.51 | 4.9 | 0.72 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.43 | 4.86 | 0.43 | 4.8 | 0.37 | 5.14 | 0.71 | 4.09 | 5.47 | 1.38 | 5.53 | 1.44 | 4.06 | -0.03 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 3 | 6.16 | 3.16 | 6.11 | 3.11 | 5.9 | 2.9 | |||||||
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 5.24 | 3.66 | -1.58 | 4.04 | -1.2 | 4.13 | -1.11 | 2 | 3.58 | 1.58 | 3.57 | 1.57 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.46 | 5 | -1.46 | 4.93 | -1.53 | 4.73 | -1.73 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 | 5.23 | 1.31 | 4.84 | 0.92 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.07 | 4.09 | 0.02 | 4 | -0.07 | 3.97 | -0.1 | 6.04 | 3.77 | -2.27 | 3.72 | -2.32 | 4.46 | -1.58 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 4.17 | 4 | -0.17 | 3.85 | -0.32 | 3.64 | -0.53 | 6.41 | 4.35 | -2.06 | 4.15 | -2.26 | 4.27 | -2.14 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK |
Chris Sale has a .311 BABIP over his last 17 starts, so a sub-.200 mark through his first nine starts still leaves a mark.
Cole Hamels is separated by nearly league average estimators merely by an 81.8 LOB%. In his defense, the month of August was one of his best and his career strand rate is now just four and a half points lower.
Drew Pomeranz has surprisingly retained his 80% strand rate since the trade with the BABIP and HR rate each increasing greatly.
Kyle Hendricks may not be as good as his ERA suggests, but is probably quite a bit better than ERA estimators that don’t account for all the weak contact he’s generated. His .244 BABIP is a testament to both that and his defense with the overall profile below looking rather ordinary. I suspect the 81.5 LOB% and 9.7 HR/FB may both regress at least a tiny bit.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.300 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 0.245 | 10.5% | 91.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.307 | 0.297 | -0.01 | 0.235 | 10.2% | 92.6% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.313 | 0.321 | 0.008 | 0.222 | 3.9% | 88.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.300 | 0.262 | -0.038 | 0.189 | 1.8% | 86.3% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.299 | 0.270 | -0.029 | 0.222 | 10.8% | 83.4% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.292 | 0.289 | -0.003 | 0.195 | 4.1% | 85.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.295 | 0.262 | -0.033 | 0.149 | 13.0% | 83.4% |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 0.301 | 0.307 | 0.006 | 0.212 | 5.7% | 87.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.295 | 0.260 | -0.035 | 0.182 | 7.2% | 91.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.292 | 0.261 | -0.031 | 0.187 | 11.8% | 85.4% |
| Jake Esch | FLA | 0.302 | 0.400 | 0.098 | 0.188 | 0.0% | 93.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.305 | 0.291 | -0.014 | 0.209 | 13.3% | 89.1% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.304 | 0.310 | 0.006 | 0.241 | 16.2% | 84.0% |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.322 | 0.368 | 0.046 | 0.244 | 4.3% | 86.5% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.300 | 0.247 | -0.053 | 0.19 | 11.6% | 84.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.288 | 0.272 | -0.016 | 0.191 | 11.6% | 83.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.252 | 0.244 | -0.008 | 0.202 | 11.2% | 87.9% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.294 | 0.276 | -0.018 | 0.216 | 11.5% | 87.5% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.300 | 0.295 | -0.005 | 0.182 | 11.7% | 88.2% |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.286 | 0.270 | -0.016 | 0.185 | 8.2% | 84.6% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.284 | 0.241 | -0.043 | 0.171 | 12.6% | 78.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.287 | 0.277 | -0.01 | 0.24 | 10.8% | 85.9% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.311 | 0.306 | -0.005 | 0.264 | 12.1% | 85.4% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.285 | 0.271 | -0.014 | 0.211 | 13.1% | 82.3% |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.288 | 0.179 | -0.109 | 0.244 | 29.4% | 88.1% |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 0.291 | 0.373 | 0.082 | 0.186 | 0.0% | 92.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.301 | 0.355 | 0.054 | 0.209 | 8.0% | 89.0% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.301 | 0.001 | 0.214 | 5.6% | 86.7% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.322 | 0.303 | -0.019 | 0.202 | 12.1% | 91.0% |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 0.302 |
Max Scherzer continues to sport the Super Duper BABIP profile. If you’d like to sustain a low BABIP, this is what you do.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Exactly 30% of the board (nine of 30) costs more than $9K on FanDuel today. DraftKings lowers the price on just two of those pitchers, while bumping up five of them $2.3K or more. There are five pitchers on DraftKings that cost $12K or more today, three of them costing less than $10K on FanDuel. You’re really paying for your top arms on DraftKings today, which is why not all of them are among the top projected values.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) struggled a bit the last time he saw the Braves a few weeks back, but was absolutely dominant in every other August start outside Colorado. Sure, the Braves aren’t the worst offense in the majors anymore, but he may currently be the best pitcher.
Matt Andriese faces another dangerous opponent, but at least does so in a favorable park. Although he’s allowed nine HRs over his last five starts, he’s actually reduced hard contact and has a 20.5 K-BB% over the last month. You’re not often going to find that for less than $6K on either site.
Value Tier Two
Drew Pomeranz (2t) returns to the place where he broke out this year. It’s a great park and a below average, highly strikeout prone offense that resides in it. So we should expect results similar to those he previously achieved in this park, right?
Value Tier Three
Kyle Hendricks (4t) is tied for the third highest cost on FanDuel, but is one of the few pitchers in that range that didn’t get jacked over $12K on DraftKings, falling $600 short of that mark. That’s still higher than he’s used to being, but his strikeout rate is up over the last month and he’s facing the highest strikeout rate in the league tonight, while great contact rates should limit the issues a trip to Milwaukee normally poses.
Chris Sale (2t) wears the second highest price tag on either site in a matchup just a bit worse than neutral for him. His 28.6 K% in August was the eighth best in baseball though and while you’d certainly like him to cost less, at least on DraftKings, that doesn’t take him out of the conversation today. He still has as much upside as nearly any pitcher on this board.
Kenta Maeda is a quality pitcher in a nice spot for a reasonable price ($9K). The issue is with a potentially reduced workload. He’s gone just five innings in three of his last four starts, while he’s mostly pitched well so it seems to be a managed workload thing.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Masahiro Tanaka is in a dangerous spot after three straight favorable ones on the road, but the Blue Jays are really just an average offense on the road against RHP with a bit of strikeout in them. The numbers probably don’t tell the full story though because a park like Yankee Stadium probably benefits their power driven skill set more than some other offenses. He’s had such a strong month that he still deserves some consideration for less than $10K though.
Cole Hamels (4t) gets a rematch against an offense that bopped him last week, but with a nice park upgrade. The price tag is riding high and there’s just no consistency here, but he can win you a GPP as well as lose you one. I went back and forth several times on whether to include him here or punt entirely because he’s been just so darn frustrating this year.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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