Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 12th

By Matt Trollo (MTro86), Last Updated 3 days ago

Eleven games on the night slate for Saturday and lots of blank spaces from pitchers just returning from injury or even making their major league debut in the case of one afternoon game. At first glance, it looks like a strong board.

On second glance, the cancellation in Washington takes the top pitcher and another usable one off the board. While nobody should be interested in Chris Stratton or Edwin Jackson, see yesterday’s article for their stats if necessary. Use the listed pitchers (Scherzer & Samardzija) as an early Sunday bonus. Keeping Stratton and Jackson on pace after a rainout is something you do when you’re either very far out of it or very much in charge of your division.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB%
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Aaron Nola PHI 2.2 3.55 5.87 51.2% 0.96 2.94 4.21 NYM 110 102 96
Brent Suter MIL -1.6 4.19 5.31 44.8% 1.02 4.24 4.3 CIN 93 89 135
Carlos Martinez STL -1.5 3.81 6.25 53.9% 0.98 3.66 3.82 ATL 91 85 67
Chris Archer TAM -0.5 3.56 6.15 45.3% 0.96 3.11 3.57 CLE 100 103 35
Drew Pomeranz BOS 5.4 3.8 5.58 44.2% 1.01 3.93 3.56 NYY 116 86 106
Dylan Bundy BAL -5.1 4.48 5.72 33.8% 0.93 4.83 3.04 OAK 110 104 120
Erasmo Ramirez SEA 7.4 3.99 5.34 49.5% 0.89 4.16 4.08 ANA 86 96 92
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 2.8 3.95 5.42 46.4% 0.89 3.69 2.36 SDG 81 76 91
Ian Kennedy KAN 7.2 4.21 5.75 35.3% 0.98 4.76 5.57 CHW 92 87 107
James Shields CHW -0.1 5.04 5.56 39.9% 0.98 5.32 4.4 KAN 87 90 109
JC Ramirez ANA 2 4.41 5.96 50.4% 0.89 4.27 5.46 SEA 109 102 100
Jeff Hoffman COL -3.9 4.75 5.41 44.2% 0.94 4.62 3.34 MIA 91 96 74
Jeff Samardzija SFO -3 3.9 6.39 43.6% 1.01 3.7 5.36 WAS 115 107 111
Jhoulys Chacin SDG -5.4 4.41 5.53 49.6% 0.89 4.33 5.07 LOS 119 109 112
Jon Lester CHC 3.2 3.58 6.18 47.3% 1.13 3.63 3.21 ARI 106 75 81
Jordan Zimmermann DET 1.7 4.64 5.78 39.4% 0.98 5.16 5.23 MIN 89 98 123
Jose Berrios MIN -0.2 4.67 5.13 39.1% 0.98 5.38 4.57 DET 114 94 75
Justin Nicolino MIA 4.9 5.28 5.47 46.3% 0.94 5.28 COL 79 95 53
Luis Severino NYY 2.4 3.64 5.68 49.2% 1.01 3.4 2.92 BOS 94 91 100
Luke Sims ATL -1.8 5.32 6. 31.6% 0.98 5.32 STL 103 98 155
Max Scherzer WAS 1 2.86 6.69 35.3% 1.01 2.99 3.29 SFO 85 81 96
Mike Clevinger CLE 0.3 4.61 4.75 39.1% 0.96 4.6 7 TAM 104 105 29
Mike Fiers HOU -5.5 4.22 5.65 41.8% 1.11 4.56 5.7 TEX 105 97 97
Patrick Corbin ARI -5.4 4.13 5.54 50.6% 1.13 4.12 3.49 CHC 94 110 102
Scott Feldman CIN 7.3 4.34 5.43 0.467 1.02 3.97 MIL 89 92 80
Sean Manaea OAK -11.2 4.15 5.76 0.443 0.93 4.1 6.57 BAL 91 90 122
Steven Matz NYM -1.6 3.78 5.73 0.498 0.96 3.83 3.99 PHI 97 85 86
Trevor Williams PIT -2.4 4.51 5.44 0.495 1.03 4.3 3.98 TOR 93 92 91
Tyson Ross TEX 1.8 4.12 5.47 0.49 1.11 4.9 HOU 131 131 99
Chris Rowley TOR -1.9 0 0 1.03 PIT 87 86 66


Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings in six of nine starts with a 21.7 K-BB%, while his 49% ground ball rate and solid contact management have continued (85.8 mph aEV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 6.8 Hard-Soft% this year). The Mets are an average matchup. They do retain some power in a power friendly, but slightly negative overall run environment. They have a 25.4 HR/FB, but 28.3 K% over the last week.

Carlos Martinez has struck out 22 of 79 batters after a four start stretch with five or fewer strikeouts in four straight starts. Control and contact management have been a challenge for him at times this season, especially against LHBs (.435 wOBA with eight HRs last nine starts), but he does have a 59.5 GB% over his last four starts. He may not have to deal with a lot of power against the Braves (6.4 HR/FB last seven days), but Freddie Freeman could have a field day and the team has just a 15% strikeout rate over the last week.

Erasmo Ramirez has started 10 games this season, scattered throughout the year. He’s exceeded 5.1 innings just once with 12 HRs and has allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven. He’s also generated an above average strikeout rate in six of them. What his 40.5 Hard% for the season is not pretty, he’s in a big park with a strong defense against an offense without a lot of power.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has struck out at least seven in four of his last six starts (21.5 K-BB%) and has quelled early season HR issues without a single one in his last three starts. He’s also gone seven innings in two straight starts, though exceeded 85 pitches for the first time in three starts back from the DL last time out. The good news is that he may only need around 90 pitches to get through seven innings against the Padres, who strike out over a quarter of the time on the road and against LHP. It’s the top matchup on the board.

Jon Lester has pitched into the seventh inning in four of five starts and struck out at least seven in three of his last four. He’ll occasionally put up double digit strikeouts, but is generally just going to be good. His peripherals and batted balls are pretty much in line with the last several seasons. He strikes out around a quarter of the batters he faces and manages contact well. He’s in an incredibly interesting spot tonight. The Diamondbacks have a 25.4 K% vs LHP and that may sustain, but their incredibly pathetic overall production against southpaws was built up before acquiring Martinez, before Pollock got healthy and before Goldschmidt caught fire. This is likely a tougher matchup that it looks.

Steven Matz has allowed at least three ERs in fewer than six innings in six straight starts. While he did strikeout seven of 22 Dodgers in his last start, his 6.9 SwStr% in that start is the same as his pathetic mark for the season. His 40.7% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and his hard hit rate has been above 50% in three of his last five starts. This is all horrible stuff. You may be wondering if I placed him in the wrong section. Let’s get to the good news though. It’s a small victory that he’s generated a 58.1 GB% over his last three starts and has even started well a couple of times before falling apart. His last two starts were against the Dodgers and in Colorado. Tonight, he gets a significant step down in competition in Philadelphia. The Phillies have an 8.5 HR/FB and 1.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)

Brent Suter (.313 – 74.5% – 7.4) had been a person of interest for us for a while with solid peripherals (14.2 K-BB%) and strong contact management (6.7 Hard-Soft%, 85.2 mph aEV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE, 26.2% 95+ mph EV), but not all of that has held up through two August starts in which he’s lasted a total of 9.1 innings with more than one-third of batted balls categorized as hard hit in two starts. The Reds are one of the hottest teams in the league (4.4 K-BB%, 23.2 HR/FB last seven days) in a dangerous park.

Dylan Bundy (.263 – 75.4% – 12.1) struck out a season high 10 batters last time out, but had preceded it with a total of 17 over his previous four starts, while he’s a significant risk with a lot of hard contact in the air. While a favorable park and a high strikeout spot (A’s 25 K% vs RHP), this is a team with some power.

Mike Fiers (.271 – 81.9% – 20.2) had some things working for a while there, but has gotten thrashed for 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 16.1 innings with five HRs and a SwStr% that can’t nearly support his K% over the last month.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Sean Manaea has a 40.2% 95+ mph EV that’s second highest on the board with a collapsing strikeout rate. He has just a 32.6 GB% with six HRs in five starts since the All-Star break. He could be tiring, although he’s still 40 innings below his career high, set last year. The Orioles have a 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP.
Ian Kennedy has an unsustainable .241 BABIP that’s countered by a low strand rate. While he’s in a favorable spot in Chicago in a park that’s actually a more pitcher friendly run environment, it may actually be a downgrade for his skillset. His 89.7 mph aEV and 10.4% Barrels/BBE are worst on the board. Made worse by his declining strikeout rate over the last month.

Patrick Corbin is missing a lot of bats, but generates too much hard contact in a difficult park against an offense that handles LHP well (11.6 BB%, 18.5 HR/FB).

Jeff Hoffman struck out eight Phillies in seven one run innings last time out. It was the first time in seven starts that he’d struck out more than five and his first time in 10 starts with a SwStr rate above 8%.

JC Ramirez has a 56.9 GB% with a hard hit rate just below 30% over his last nine starts, in which he’s dipped below a 50 GB% just once, but also has just a 5.1 K-BB% over this span.

Jhoulys Chacin has been a solid contact manager and the negative run environment even neutralizes the Dodger offense somewhat, but his 16.9 K% over the last month won’t work.

Lucas Sims has struck out around a quarter of batters faced in AA and higher since 2015, but just six of his first 50 major league ones. He also has to face the hottest offense in baseball (14.9 BB%, 23.6 Hard-Soft% last seven days).

Justin Nicolino

Tyson Ross struck out eight of 25 AA batters in seven one run innings in his most recent rehab start, but it’s really one of only two times he’s even looked decent this year and he’s facing the Astros.

Scott Feldman has pitched one inning of professional baseball over the last month.

James Shields

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Aaron Nola Phillies L2 Years 24.6% 6.6% Home 28.4% 6.4% L14 Days 18.2% 5.5%
Brent Suter Brewers L2 Years 19.2% 6.0% Home 21.9% 5.8% L14 Days 20.3% 5.8%
Carlos Martinez Cardinals L2 Years 23.6% 8.3% Home 22.1% 6.9% L14 Days 25.9% 9.3%
Chris Archer Rays L2 Years 27.6% 8.2% Home 31.1% 7.2% L14 Days 25.0% 4.2%
Drew Pomeranz Red Sox L2 Years 26.0% 8.6% Road 24.8% 9.8% L14 Days 22.2% 3.7%
Dylan Bundy Orioles L2 Years 20.7% 8.0% Road 21.8% 10.0% L14 Days 28.3% 1.9%
Erasmo Ramirez Mariners L2 Years 18.1% 5.5% Home 20.6% 6.5% L14 Days 18.0% 0.0%
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers L2 Years 23.0% 6.9% Home 22.4% 6.4% L14 Days 33.3% 2.2%
Ian Kennedy Royals L2 Years 23.1% 8.4% Road 21.4% 8.7% L14 Days 14.3% 10.2%
James Shields White Sox L2 Years 17.8% 10.6% Home 17.9% 10.2% L14 Days 22.6% 5.7%
JC Ramirez Angels L2 Years 17.4% 7.7% Road 17.7% 7.4% L14 Days 8.3% 6.7%
Jeff Hoffman Rockies L2 Years 18.6% 9.0% Road 20.9% 8.1% L14 Days 26.0% 8.0%
Jeff Samardzija Giants L2 Years 21.7% 5.5% Road 22.6% 4.7% L14 Days 14.0% 8.8%
Jhoulys Chacin Padres L2 Years 19.2% 8.7% Road 18.4% 9.5% L14 Days 15.7% 9.8%
Jon Lester Cubs L2 Years 25.2% 6.6% Road 24.1% 7.1% L14 Days 33.3% 8.3%
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers L2 Years 16.8% 6.2% Home 14.4% 5.6% L14 Days 12.1% 3.6%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 20.2% 9.3% Road 18.9% 10.5% L14 Days 21.7% 6.5%
Justin Nicolino Marlins L2 Years 10.0% 6.4% Home 10.2% 5.1% L14 Days
Luis Severino Yankees L2 Years 24.8% 7.4% Home 26.1% 7.0% L14 Days 36.2% 8.5%
Luke Sims Braves L2 Years 12.0% 4.0% Road L14 Days 12.0% 4.0%
Max Scherzer Nationals L2 Years 32.9% 6.0% Home 34.1% 5.7% L14 Days 29.0% 6.5%
Mike Clevinger Indians L2 Years 24.0% 12.7% Road 24.2% 12.5% L14 Days 12.0% 20.0%
Mike Fiers Astros L2 Years 20.9% 7.3% Road 19.4% 8.0% L14 Days 14.6% 10.9%
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks L2 Years 20.0% 7.6% Home 20.4% 8.6% L14 Days 27.7% 6.4%
Scott Feldman Reds L2 Years 17.9% 7.0% Road 19.3% 6.1% L14 Days
Sean Manaea Athletics L2 Years 21.4% 7.1% Home 21.9% 8.1% L14 Days 5.3% 7.9%
Steven Matz Mets L2 Years 21.4% 5.7% Road 20.1% 5.3% L14 Days 20.5% 9.1%
Trevor Williams Pirates L2 Years 17.1% 7.1% Road 16.7% 7.5% L14 Days 23.4% 8.5%
Tyson Ross Rangers L2 Years 23.3% 10.2% Home 16.7% 7.8% L14 Days
Chris Rowley Blue Jays L2 Years 0.0% 0.0% Home L14 Days

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Mets Road 20.9% 8.3% RH 19.3% 8.9% L7Days 28.3% 6.1%
Reds Road 20.3% 8.0% LH 21.9% 7.6% L7Days 18.8% 14.4%
Braves Road 19.3% 7.7% RH 19.8% 7.0% L7Days 15.0% 6.9%
Indians Road 18.4% 9.4% RH 19.7% 9.5% L7Days 24.3% 8.3%
Yankees Home 23.2% 10.4% LH 23.2% 10.6% L7Days 24.5% 10.1%
Athletics Home 24.7% 9.5% RH 25.0% 9.5% L7Days 26.7% 8.8%
Angels Road 20.7% 8.6% RH 19.6% 8.0% L7Days 17.7% 8.8%
Padres Road 25.8% 7.3% LH 25.5% 8.2% L7Days 23.6% 7.2%
White Sox Home 23.2% 7.4% RH 23.0% 6.5% L7Days 24.6% 6.1%
Royals Road 21.2% 6.1% RH 20.4% 6.4% L7Days 20.5% 6.0%
Mariners Home 21.4% 8.7% RH 21.1% 7.6% L7Days 19.3% 6.1%
Marlins Home 20.5% 8.6% RH 20.7% 7.5% L7Days 21.8% 7.0%
Nationals Home 19.5% 9.0% RH 19.8% 9.0% L7Days 17.0% 8.5%
Dodgers Home 22.7% 10.4% RH 22.7% 10.4% L7Days 22.5% 10.4%
Diamondbacks Home 23.2% 9.6% LH 25.4% 8.1% L7Days 21.8% 9.2%
Twins Road 22.2% 9.2% RH 22.1% 9.7% L7Days 16.2% 9.8%
Tigers Home 19.4% 9.1% RH 21.9% 9.2% L7Days 22.0% 7.1%
Rockies Road 24.6% 7.4% LH 23.9% 7.5% L7Days 27.5% 5.8%
Red Sox Road 18.9% 8.7% RH 19.1% 8.6% L7Days 18.2% 9.6%
Cardinals Home 21.6% 9.9% RH 21.8% 9.3% L7Days 19.3% 14.9%
Giants Road 19.2% 8.0% RH 19.2% 7.4% L7Days 18.5% 7.1%
Rays Home 25.5% 9.5% RH 25.2% 8.8% L7Days 31.7% 6.5%
Rangers Home 22.2% 9.1% RH 23.9% 8.8% L7Days 26.3% 8.2%
Cubs Road 22.3% 9.4% LH 21.7% 11.6% L7Days 22.1% 7.1%
Brewers Home 26.3% 8.5% RH 25.6% 8.5% L7Days 25.6% 7.5%
Orioles Road 22.8% 6.1% LH 24.3% 6.9% L7Days 15.8% 4.2%
Phillies Home 22.9% 8.4% LH 21.6% 8.0% L7Days 25.4% 7.0%
Blue Jays Home 20.4% 8.8% RH 20.5% 8.7% L7Days 22.1% 10.4%
Astros Road 17.8% 8.5% RH 17.4% 8.0% L7Days 19.9% 8.3%
Pirates Road 19.4% 8.5% RH 18.5% 8.3% L7Days 18.0% 7.4%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Aaron Nola Phillies L2 Years 29.1% 11.8% 6.3% 2017 30.4% 10.0% 6.8% Home 28.6% 17.3% 3.2% L14 Days 28.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Brent Suter Brewers L2 Years 30.3% 8.9% 8.1% 2017 28.7% 7.4% 6.7% Home 32.0% 5.1% 10.3% L14 Days 32.0% 10.5% 8.0%
Carlos Martinez Cardinals L2 Years 31.3% 12.2% 12.8% 2017 33.4% 15.8% 15.2% Home 28.9% 14.8% 9.7% L14 Days 28.6% 18.2% 11.5%
Chris Archer Rays L2 Years 36.0% 13.8% 19.6% 2017 38.5% 12.4% 23.6% Home 36.5% 11.0% 20.8% L14 Days 42.4% 25.0% 39.4%
Drew Pomeranz Red Sox L2 Years 31.7% 13.2% 11.6% 2017 32.2% 12.6% 10.4% Road 30.9% 10.7% 8.7% L14 Days 35.9% 11.1% 15.4%
Dylan Bundy Orioles L2 Years 32.2% 12.6% 11.6% 2017 35.7% 12.1% 17.5% Road 34.2% 13.3% 13.6% L14 Days 43.2% 6.7% 24.3%
Erasmo Ramirez Mariners L2 Years 32.5% 15.6% 15.1% 2017 40.5% 17.6% 25.6% Home 29.1% 9.4% 10.7% L14 Days 43.8% 35.7% 28.2%
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers L2 Years 36.1% 18.6% 17.9% 2017 35.5% 18.8% 16.4% Home 36.4% 26.7% 19.5% L14 Days 37.9% 0.0% 24.1%
Ian Kennedy Royals L2 Years 37.7% 12.9% 21.5% 2017 40.1% 13.2% 27.3% Road 34.7% 13.6% 17.2% L14 Days 44.4% 7.7% 33.3%
James Shields White Sox L2 Years 33.1% 17.3% 16.8% 2017 35.0% 16.8% 17.5% Home 33.6% 17.9% 19.2% L14 Days 36.8% 21.7% 26.3%
JC Ramirez Angels L2 Years 32.1% 15.8% 13.7% 2017 35.1% 15.6% 18.0% Road 33.6% 16.1% 14.2% L14 Days 24.0% 6.7% 2.0%
Jeff Hoffman Rockies L2 Years 33.6% 12.5% 14.5% 2017 33.3% 9.2% 14.8% Road 29.7% 13.6% 8.5% L14 Days 39.4% 14.3% 24.2%
Jeff Samardzija Giants L2 Years 30.3% 13.6% 11.3% 2017 29.4% 15.5% 8.5% Road 30.8% 16.3% 12.3% L14 Days 40.9% 6.3% 29.5%
Jhoulys Chacin Padres L2 Years 31.1% 13.1% 11.5% 2017 28.9% 14.8% 7.4% Road 32.7% 20.0% 13.7% L14 Days 31.6% 18.2% 13.2%
Jon Lester Cubs L2 Years 26.4% 13.1% 6.5% 2017 26.0% 15.4% 5.4% Road 26.4% 14.9% 6.4% L14 Days 18.5% 0.0% 14.8%
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers L2 Years 32.1% 13.7% 14.8% 2017 38.2% 13.9% 24.0% Home 37.3% 13.2% 22.0% L14 Days 33.8% 7.1% 19.1%
Jose Berrios Twins L2 Years 29.1% 12.5% 8.8% 2017 26.1% 10.0% 4.4% Road 30.2% 13.6% 8.6% L14 Days 34.4% 11.1% 6.3%
Justin Nicolino Marlins L2 Years 31.0% 10.6% 12.9% 2017 26.7% 26.3% 16.0% Home 30.1% 8.7% 16.8% L14 Days
Luis Severino Yankees L2 Years 28.2% 14.3% 7.4% 2017 28.7% 11.9% 9.9% Home 30.3% 19.8% 8.8% L14 Days 24.0% 9.1% 16.0%
Luke Sims Braves L2 Years 35.0% 18.8% 15.0% 2017 35.0% 18.8% 15.0% Road L14 Days 35.0% 18.8% 15.0%
Max Scherzer Nationals L2 Years 29.7% 12.4% 8.4% 2017 28.1% 11.8% 8.3% Home 26.0% 10.7% 5.3% L14 Days 30.0% 12.5% 10.0%
Mike Clevinger Indians L2 Years 33.2% 13.5% 16.3% 2017 34.9% 13.9% 19.0% Road 31.8% 11.4% 14.7% L14 Days 47.1% 25.0% 29.4%
Mike Fiers Astros L2 Years 32.2% 16.6% 13.4% 2017 30.7% 20.2% 10.6% Road 32.9% 18.9% 14.6% L14 Days 31.6% 23.5% 18.4%
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks L2 Years 35.2% 16.4% 19.1% 2017 32.9% 17.6% 15.8% Home 37.8% 14.7% 23.2% L14 Days 35.5% 40.0% 25.8%
Scott Feldman Reds L2 Years 28.0% 14.5% 7.3% 2017 31.2% 17.6% 9.8% Road 28.1% 18.1% 9.7% L14 Days
Sean Manaea Athletics L2 Years 33.6% 12.5% 16.3% 2017 33.6% 11.2% 17.8% Home 32.8% 10.4% 16.8% L14 Days 36.4% 25.0% 30.3%
Steven Matz Mets L2 Years 30.7% 15.0% 10.0% 2017 35.1% 18.3% 15.5% Road 27.9% 11.1% 8.4% L14 Days 45.2% 40.0% 25.8%
Trevor Williams Pirates L2 Years 30.0% 11.5% 5.8% 2017 29.9% 9.0% 4.8% Road 27.2% 20.4% 2.8% L14 Days 31.3% 0.0% 3.2%
Tyson Ross Rangers L2 Years 27.5% 12.0% 9.7% 2017 31.3% 13.2% 18.8% Home 35.9% 11.1% 21.8% L14 Days
Chris Rowley Blue Jays L2 Years 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2017 Home L14 Days

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Mets Road 36.8% 15.8% 19.8% RH 35.2% 13.4% 18.0% L7Days 37.2% 25.4% 16.0%
Reds Road 30.5% 13.7% 10.9% LH 29.1% 15.5% 9.3% L7Days 31.3% 23.2% 12.6%
Braves Road 31.7% 12.5% 13.8% RH 30.8% 11.1% 12.4% L7Days 35.6% 6.4% 20.0%
Indians Road 34.7% 11.7% 18.4% RH 33.6% 12.0% 16.6% L7Days 29.5% 9.1% 8.9%
Yankees Home 30.2% 19.2% 9.8% LH 28.9% 11.5% 7.8% L7Days 29.1% 10.2% 11.2%
Athletics Home 32.1% 14.9% 17.3% RH 33.8% 14.7% 17.7% L7Days 37.0% 14.0% 25.3%
Angels Road 32.3% 11.2% 13.0% RH 31.0% 12.9% 11.3% L7Days 29.5% 9.7% 7.4%
Padres Road 30.9% 15.0% 9.1% LH 31.3% 13.2% 10.8% L7Days 36.5% 17.1% 12.2%
White Sox Home 28.4% 12.8% 6.7% RH 30.5% 13.2% 11.3% L7Days 30.1% 9.4% 12.1%
Royals Road 32.0% 13.7% 12.5% RH 31.3% 12.1% 11.8% L7Days 27.6% 13.9% 3.6%
Mariners Home 29.1% 12.5% 9.7% RH 30.2% 12.7% 11.9% L7Days 27.1% 18.5% 7.1%
Marlins Home 31.6% 15.1% 9.9% RH 31.7% 15.1% 11.9% L7Days 28.7% 11.4% 6.8%
Nationals Home 32.4% 14.9% 16.0% RH 31.9% 15.3% 14.9% L7Days 29.3% 12.1% 14.1%
Dodgers Home 36.8% 16.7% 21.0% RH 36.0% 15.4% 20.5% L7Days 44.1% 18.6% 30.3%
Diamondbacks Home 38.1% 16.5% 23.4% LH 32.6% 15.6% 15.3% L7Days 32.5% 12.9% 11.1%
Twins Road 30.8% 11.6% 12.8% RH 33.3% 12.6% 16.5% L7Days 39.7% 17.2% 22.7%
Tigers Home 45.2% 13.2% 31.5% RH 39.9% 11.4% 24.3% L7Days 35.2% 10.9% 15.1%
Rockies Road 29.3% 11.7% 8.1% LH 32.8% 16.4% 12.5% L7Days 32.5% 12.5% 8.9%
Red Sox Road 31.7% 11.2% 11.5% RH 33.8% 10.8% 15.9% L7Days 29.6% 14.3% 14.4%
Cardinals Home 32.2% 12.4% 12.7% RH 31.3% 12.7% 12.4% L7Days 36.4% 18.0% 23.6%
Giants Road 30.8% 11.2% 10.4% RH 28.0% 8.8% 6.9% L7Days 25.7% 10.2% 8.8%
Rays Home 36.6% 15.0% 18.5% RH 34.8% 17.1% 16.8% L7Days 28.3% 8.2% 11.6%
Rangers Home 36.6% 17.2% 18.5% RH 34.5% 17.5% 15.7% L7Days 33.1% 17.5% 17.4%
Cubs Road 29.8% 14.8% 10.5% LH 29.7% 18.5% 10.2% L7Days 29.9% 18.0% 8.9%
Brewers Home 37.5% 18.5% 18.5% RH 33.9% 18.6% 15.1% L7Days 39.8% 12.1% 23.9%
Orioles Road 34.2% 13.9% 14.5% LH 33.9% 12.8% 14.9% L7Days 29.3% 19.5% 11.7%
Phillies Home 29.6% 14.9% 9.2% LH 28.9% 14.3% 8.4% L7Days 26.8% 8.5% 1.3%
Blue Jays Home 29.7% 14.4% 9.9% RH 30.5% 14.9% 10.4% L7Days 25.0% 14.0% 0.7%
Astros Road 33.6% 15.5% 15.5% RH 33.5% 15.9% 16.1% L7Days 30.4% 11.3% 14.0%
Pirates Road 30.7% 12.3% 10.4% RH 29.9% 10.1% 8.8% L7Days 30.7% 9.4% 8.7%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Aaron Nola PHI 25.4% 10.3% 2.47 27.5% 11.1% 2.48
Brent Suter MIL 20.4% 9.5% 2.15 18.6% 9.3% 2.00
Carlos Martinez STL 25.9% 10.6% 2.44 22.4% 10.0% 2.24
Chris Archer TAM 29.3% 13.4% 2.19 32.3% 14.5% 2.23
Drew Pomeranz BOS 24.8% 10.8% 2.30 22.7% 11.9% 1.91
Dylan Bundy BAL 19.5% 10.5% 1.86 22.3% 12.2% 1.83
Erasmo Ramirez SEA 19.3% 10.6% 1.82 20.0% 13.0% 1.54
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 23.4% 12.1% 1.93 30.3% 13.1% 2.31
Ian Kennedy KAN 20.5% 8.8% 2.33 18.3% 7.5% 2.44
James Shields CHW 17.2% 8.9% 1.93 15.8% 8.9% 1.78
JC Ramirez ANA 17.6% 9.0% 1.96 14.2% 6.3% 2.25
Jeff Hoffman COL 20.2% 8.6% 2.35 17.7% 8.1% 2.19
Jeff Samardzija SFO 25.0% 10.4% 2.40 20.5% 10.2% 2.01
Jhoulys Chacin SDG 19.7% 8.1% 2.43 16.9% 7.0% 2.41
Jon Lester CHC 25.1% 11.3% 2.22 28.8% 11.9% 2.42
Jordan Zimmermann DET 15.4% 8.2% 1.88 13.4% 7.8% 1.72
Jose Berrios MIN 22.1% 9.5% 2.33 17.8% 7.7% 2.31
Justin Nicolino MIA 14.3% 6.4% 2.23
Luis Severino NYY 28.6% 12.3% 2.33 29.2% 12.9% 2.26
Luke Sims ATL 12.0% 8.6% 1.40 12.0% 8.6% 1.40
Max Scherzer WAS 35.5% 16.0% 2.22 35.6% 16.0% 2.23
Mike Clevinger CLE 26.0% 13.0% 2.00 20.8% 11.6% 1.79
Mike Fiers HOU 23.0% 9.3% 2.47 27.1% 8.5% 3.19
Patrick Corbin ARI 21.4% 11.4% 1.88 23.8% 13.8% 1.72
Scott Feldman CIN 19.8% 8.1% 2.44 0.0% 6.1% 0.00
Sean Manaea OAK 22.1% 12.4% 1.78 15.7% 8.8% 1.78
Steven Matz NYM 17.0% 6.9% 2.46 20.4% 8.1% 2.52
Trevor Williams PIT 17.0% 8.0% 2.13 17.5% 6.5% 2.69
Tyson Ross TEX 18.2% 7.2% 2.53 22.0% 8.2% 2.68
Chris Rowley TOR


There’s just a single outlier on the entire board for the season and he has just two short major league starts under his belt.

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF Season
DRA
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Aaron Nola PHI 3.12 3.72 0.6 3.54 0.42 3.12 0 2.93 -0.19 1.97 3.44 1.47 3.47 1.5 2.45 0.48
Brent Suter MIL 3.31 4.14 0.83 4.09 0.78 3.28 -0.03 5.97 2.66 3.67 4.3 0.63 4.13 0.46 3.8 0.13
Carlos Martinez STL 3.52 3.85 0.33 3.62 0.1 3.84 0.32 3.26 -0.26 3.94 3.72 -0.22 3.44 -0.5 4.13 0.19
Chris Archer TAM 3.8 3.45 -0.35 3.39 -0.41 3.23 -0.57 2.68 -1.12 3.19 3.2 0.01 3.27 0.08 3.59 0.4
Drew Pomeranz BOS 3.36 4.06 0.7 3.81 0.45 3.68 0.32 3.88 0.52 2.64 4.49 1.85 4.24 1.6 3.88 1.24
Dylan Bundy BAL 4.15 4.71 0.56 4.98 0.83 4.7 0.55 4.73 0.58 3.42 4.12 0.7 4.5 1.08 4.05 0.63
Erasmo Ramirez SEA 5.1 4.05 -1.05 4.14 -0.96 4.71 -0.39 4.39 -0.71 4.73 3.81 -0.92 4.24 -0.49 6.58 1.85
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 3.53 3.9 0.37 3.73 0.2 4.3 0.77 4.32 0.79 0.95 3.09 2.14 2.69 1.74 1.66 0.71
Ian Kennedy KAN 4.83 4.8 -0.03 5.1 0.27 5.01 0.18 5.05 0.22 6.08 4.92 -1.16 5.18 -0.9 4.37 -1.71
James Shields CHW 6.03 5.4 -0.63 6.03 0 6.69 0.66 6.82 0.79 7.52 5.36 -2.16 5.95 -1.57 6.44 -1.08
JC Ramirez ANA 4.21 4.58 0.37 4.42 0.21 4.66 0.45 4.38 0.17 3.48 5.13 1.65 4.81 1.33 4.44 0.96
Jeff Hoffman COL 5.03 4.54 -0.49 4.69 -0.34 4 -1.03 5.31 0.28 6.92 5.05 -1.87 5.19 -1.73 5.13 -1.79
Jeff Samardzija SFO 4.75 3.45 -1.3 3.3 -1.45 3.53 -1.22 3.18 -1.57 5.4 4.23 -1.17 4.19 -1.21 3.92 -1.48
Jhoulys Chacin SDG 4.15 4.46 0.31 4.26 0.11 4.38 0.23 4.43 0.28 3.56 5.14 1.58 4.62 1.06 4.32 0.76
Jon Lester CHC 3.97 3.79 -0.18 3.59 -0.38 3.8 -0.17 3.29 -0.68 3.03 3.17 0.14 3.19 0.16 3.26 0.23
Jordan Zimmermann DET 5.27 5.1 -0.17 5.27 0 5.3 0.03 5.50 0.23 3.45 5.18 1.73 5.33 1.88 3.77 0.32
Jose Berrios MIN 3.86 4.23 0.37 4.53 0.67 3.98 0.12 3.88 0.02 4.81 5.03 0.22 5.39 0.58 4.12 -0.69
Justin Nicolino MIA 5.31 5 -0.31 4.75 -0.56 6.28 0.97 7.79 2.48
Luis Severino NYY 2.91 3.27 0.36 3.08 0.17 2.9 -0.01 2.81 -0.10 0.83 3.35 2.52 3.25 2.42 2.12 1.29
Luke Sims ATL 5.25 5.32 0.07 5.5 0.25 6.38 1.13 7.24 1.99 5.25 5.32 0.07 5.5 0.25 6.38 1.13
Max Scherzer WAS 2.23 2.76 0.53 3.08 0.85 2.84 0.61 2.08 -0.15 2.88 3.22 0.34 3.2 0.32 4.09 1.21
Mike Clevinger CLE 4 4.5 0.5 4.37 0.37 4.4 0.4 3.82 -0.18 8.16 5.01 -3.15 5.16 -3 5.65 -2.51
Mike Fiers HOU 4.06 4.29 0.23 4.42 0.36 5.3 1.24 5.15 1.09 4.75 3.81 -0.94 4.36 -0.39 5.31 0.56
Patrick Corbin ARI 4.76 4.05 -0.71 3.87 -0.89 4.37 -0.39 6.12 1.36 4.94 3.99 -0.95 3.99 -0.95 4.89 -0.05
Scott Feldman CIN 4.34 4.44 0.1 4.09 -0.25 4.51 0.17 4.95 0.61 45 10.32 -34.68 15.02 -29.98 32.13 -12.87
Sean Manaea OAK 4.15 4.29 0.14 4.3 0.15 3.96 -0.19 4.31 0.16 5.54 5.06 -0.48 5.49 -0.05 5.48 -0.06
Steven Matz NYM 5.77 4.5 -1.27 4.32 -1.45 4.96 -0.81 5.88 0.11 11.17 3.77 -7.4 3.19 -7.98 4.69 -6.48
Trevor Williams PIT 4.17 4.54 0.37 4.37 0.2 3.8 -0.37 3.86 -0.31 2.64 4.39 1.75 4.05 1.41 3.2 0.56
Tyson Ross TEX 7.52 5.54 -1.98 5.78 -1.74 5.7 -1.82 5.16 -2.36 15.43 5.62 -9.81 6.02 -9.41 7.71 -7.72
Chris Rowley TOR


Erasmo Ramirez allows a lot of hard contact and it’s tough to argue with a 17.6 HR/FB, but his 65.3 LOB% might be a touch low.

Steven Matz has a .333 BABIP and 18.3 HR/FB, but he’s been allowing a ton of hard contact and the defense sucked. Maybe having a real shortstop will help him?

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff GB% Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact Exit
Velocity
Barrels
BBE
95+ MPH
EV
BBE
Aaron Nola PHI 0.297 0.301 0.004 49.4% 0.182 7.0% 84.7% 85.8 4.20% 29.10% 309
Brent Suter MIL 0.300 0.313 0.013 45.4% 0.215 13.0% 85.6% 85.2 4.30% 26.20% 164
Carlos Martinez STL 0.294 0.277 -0.017 50.9% 0.184 9.2% 86.2% 87.2 5.60% 34.70% 395
Chris Archer TAM 0.284 0.319 0.035 41.2% 0.224 10.3% 81.2% 88.9 5.70% 40.00% 403
Drew Pomeranz BOS 0.305 0.317 0.012 42.8% 0.238 10.8% 84.4% 86.9 7.10% 33.00% 339
Dylan Bundy BAL 0.315 0.263 -0.052 32.1% 0.213 13.7% 85.7% 88.3 7.80% 36.50% 395
Erasmo Ramirez SEA 0.279 0.282 0.003 47.5% 0.171 4.7% 84.6% 88.2 9.10% 36.40% 242
Hyun-Jin Ryu LOS 0.280 0.308 0.028 46.7% 0.222 7.5% 82.4% 86.9 6.90% 32.80% 262
Ian Kennedy KAN 0.299 0.241 -0.058 38.3% 0.15 7.2% 84.0% 89.7 10.40% 36.70% 327
James Shields CHW 0.288 0.275 -0.013 35.9% 0.15 5.0% 85.3% 88.5 10.20% 38.30% 206
JC Ramirez ANA 0.285 0.291 0.006 50.4% 0.189 7.8% 87.5% 87.1 6.40% 34.40% 422
Jeff Hoffman COL 0.302 0.300 -0.002 41.6% 0.184 8.2% 89.5% 87.3 6.40% 36.10% 249
Jeff Samardzija SFO 0.317 0.319 0.002 43.5% 0.235 7.7% 84.3% 86.3 5.50% 31.00% 436
Jhoulys Chacin SDG 0.307 0.273 -0.034 51.4% 0.187 14.8% 89.9% 85.7 5.90% 27.90% 391
Jon Lester CHC 0.283 0.297 0.014 48.0% 0.197 5.7% 83.6% 85.1 5.10% 27.50% 389
Jordan Zimmermann DET 0.309 0.309 0 33.4% 0.25 12.1% 90.7% 88.7 7.30% 35.30% 422
Jose Berrios MIN 0.298 0.276 -0.022 39.9% 0.19 10.9% 85.5% 85.6 5.10% 28.70% 272
Justin Nicolino MIA 0.293 0.343 0.05 48.6% 0.25 0.0% 87.7% 85.5 6.70% 30.70% 75
Luis Severino NYY 0.290 0.286 -0.004 51.0% 0.185 11.0% 84.2% 87.3 5.80% 34.50% 362
Luke Sims ATL 0.292 0.243 -0.049 31.6% 0.263 0.0% 88.9% 87.1 5.00% 32.50% 40
Max Scherzer WAS 0.293 0.234 -0.059 38.2% 0.158 12.5% 78.5% 86.1 6.60% 30.80% 334
Mike Clevinger CLE 0.303 0.274 -0.029 39.9% 0.218 9.7% 79.4% 88.3 7.90% 35.40% 189
Mike Fiers HOU 0.295 0.271 -0.024 44.1% 0.186 7.8% 85.4% 86.3 8.00% 32.60% 350
Patrick Corbin ARI 0.294 0.354 0.06 49.2% 0.206 9.6% 87.3% 88.3 7.70% 36.50% 417
Scott Feldman CIN 0.293 0.296 0.003 43.8% 0.276 10.6% 87.2% 83.8 6.50% 25.90% 309
Sean Manaea OAK 0.292 0.304 0.012 44.3% 0.194 5.6% 85.9% 88.7 6.00% 40.20% 348
Steven Matz NYM 0.320 0.333 0.013 47.6% 0.209 11.7% 88.1% 88.2 7.70% 40.70% 194
Trevor Williams PIT 0.308 0.287 -0.021 50.0% 0.193 14.0% 90.5% 84.9 5.40% 28.70% 335
Tyson Ross TEX 0.289 0.272 -0.017 38.9% 0.211 7.9% 90.3% 85.8 7.30% 27.10% 96
Chris Rowley TOR 0.307

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Hyun-Jin Ryu (1) has struck out 15 of or his last 45 batters in 14 shutout innings and gets to host the Padres tonight. He may have some sort of pitch limitation, but could see 100 and costs less than $10K in a high strikeout upside spot.

Value Tier Two

Aaron Nola (2) has reached a price point where you can’t just jam him into your lineup and go about the rest of your business. That drops him from the top value tier, but he certainly remains one of the stronger arms on the slate and may not even have reached his full potential yet.

Jon Lester (3) may be in a more difficult matchup than the numbers suggest in Arizona, but it’s not one that we should expect him to fail to navigate. There’s some value in a cost below $10K here.

Value Tier Three

Carlos Martinez (4) has been striking out batters at a high clip over his last start and generating lots of ground balls. He’s in a favorable spot against Atlanta, but it’s an offense that makes contact and he’s not without flaws, specifically against LHBs. He’s now the most expensive pitcher on the board too.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Erasmo Ramirez is a very low cost arm with an ability to strike out batters at a league average rate. While he doesn’t go deep into starts, he can cover this cost in five innings and is in a nice spot.

Steven Matz is a matchup play. He’s been getting bombed, but has at least been keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off of two very difficult spots into a much more favorable one. More than any other pitcher on the staff, he stands to benefit from the defensive upgrade at shortstop.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

  • Matt Trollo (MTro86)

  • Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.

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