Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 12th
Eleven games on the night slate for Saturday and lots of blank spaces from pitchers just returning from injury or even making their major league debut in the case of one afternoon game. At first glance, it looks like a strong board.
On second glance, the cancellation in Washington takes the top pitcher and another usable one off the board. While nobody should be interested in Chris Stratton or Edwin Jackson, see yesterday’s article for their stats if necessary. Use the listed pitchers (Scherzer & Samardzija) as an early Sunday bonus. Keeping Stratton and Jackson on pace after a rainout is something you do when you’re either very far out of it or very much in charge of your division.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.2 | 3.55 | 5.87 | 51.2% | 0.96 | 2.94 | 4.21 | NYM | 110 | 102 | 96 |
Brent Suter | MIL | -1.6 | 4.19 | 5.31 | 44.8% | 1.02 | 4.24 | 4.3 | CIN | 93 | 89 | 135 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | -1.5 | 3.81 | 6.25 | 53.9% | 0.98 | 3.66 | 3.82 | ATL | 91 | 85 | 67 |
Chris Archer | TAM | -0.5 | 3.56 | 6.15 | 45.3% | 0.96 | 3.11 | 3.57 | CLE | 100 | 103 | 35 |
Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.4 | 3.8 | 5.58 | 44.2% | 1.01 | 3.93 | 3.56 | NYY | 116 | 86 | 106 |
Dylan Bundy | BAL | -5.1 | 4.48 | 5.72 | 33.8% | 0.93 | 4.83 | 3.04 | OAK | 110 | 104 | 120 |
Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 7.4 | 3.99 | 5.34 | 49.5% | 0.89 | 4.16 | 4.08 | ANA | 86 | 96 | 92 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 2.8 | 3.95 | 5.42 | 46.4% | 0.89 | 3.69 | 2.36 | SDG | 81 | 76 | 91 |
Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.2 | 4.21 | 5.75 | 35.3% | 0.98 | 4.76 | 5.57 | CHW | 92 | 87 | 107 |
James Shields | CHW | -0.1 | 5.04 | 5.56 | 39.9% | 0.98 | 5.32 | 4.4 | KAN | 87 | 90 | 109 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 2 | 4.41 | 5.96 | 50.4% | 0.89 | 4.27 | 5.46 | SEA | 109 | 102 | 100 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | -3.9 | 4.75 | 5.41 | 44.2% | 0.94 | 4.62 | 3.34 | MIA | 91 | 96 | 74 |
Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -3 | 3.9 | 6.39 | 43.6% | 1.01 | 3.7 | 5.36 | WAS | 115 | 107 | 111 |
Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.4 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 49.6% | 0.89 | 4.33 | 5.07 | LOS | 119 | 109 | 112 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 3.2 | 3.58 | 6.18 | 47.3% | 1.13 | 3.63 | 3.21 | ARI | 106 | 75 | 81 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.7 | 4.64 | 5.78 | 39.4% | 0.98 | 5.16 | 5.23 | MIN | 89 | 98 | 123 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.2 | 4.67 | 5.13 | 39.1% | 0.98 | 5.38 | 4.57 | DET | 114 | 94 | 75 |
Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.9 | 5.28 | 5.47 | 46.3% | 0.94 | 5.28 | COL | 79 | 95 | 53 | |
Luis Severino | NYY | 2.4 | 3.64 | 5.68 | 49.2% | 1.01 | 3.4 | 2.92 | BOS | 94 | 91 | 100 |
Luke Sims | ATL | -1.8 | 5.32 | 6. | 31.6% | 0.98 | 5.32 | STL | 103 | 98 | 155 | |
Max Scherzer | WAS | 1 | 2.86 | 6.69 | 35.3% | 1.01 | 2.99 | 3.29 | SFO | 85 | 81 | 96 |
Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.3 | 4.61 | 4.75 | 39.1% | 0.96 | 4.6 | 7 | TAM | 104 | 105 | 29 |
Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.5 | 4.22 | 5.65 | 41.8% | 1.11 | 4.56 | 5.7 | TEX | 105 | 97 | 97 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.4 | 4.13 | 5.54 | 50.6% | 1.13 | 4.12 | 3.49 | CHC | 94 | 110 | 102 |
Scott Feldman | CIN | 7.3 | 4.34 | 5.43 | 0.467 | 1.02 | 3.97 | MIL | 89 | 92 | 80 | |
Sean Manaea | OAK | -11.2 | 4.15 | 5.76 | 0.443 | 0.93 | 4.1 | 6.57 | BAL | 91 | 90 | 122 |
Steven Matz | NYM | -1.6 | 3.78 | 5.73 | 0.498 | 0.96 | 3.83 | 3.99 | PHI | 97 | 85 | 86 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | -2.4 | 4.51 | 5.44 | 0.495 | 1.03 | 4.3 | 3.98 | TOR | 93 | 92 | 91 |
Tyson Ross | TEX | 1.8 | 4.12 | 5.47 | 0.49 | 1.11 | 4.9 | HOU | 131 | 131 | 99 | |
Chris Rowley | TOR | -1.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.03 | PIT | 87 | 86 | 66 |
Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings in six of nine starts with a 21.7 K-BB%, while his 49% ground ball rate and solid contact management have continued (85.8 mph aEV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 6.8 Hard-Soft% this year). The Mets are an average matchup. They do retain some power in a power friendly, but slightly negative overall run environment. They have a 25.4 HR/FB, but 28.3 K% over the last week.
Carlos Martinez has struck out 22 of 79 batters after a four start stretch with five or fewer strikeouts in four straight starts. Control and contact management have been a challenge for him at times this season, especially against LHBs (.435 wOBA with eight HRs last nine starts), but he does have a 59.5 GB% over his last four starts. He may not have to deal with a lot of power against the Braves (6.4 HR/FB last seven days), but Freddie Freeman could have a field day and the team has just a 15% strikeout rate over the last week.
Erasmo Ramirez has started 10 games this season, scattered throughout the year. He’s exceeded 5.1 innings just once with 12 HRs and has allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven. He’s also generated an above average strikeout rate in six of them. What his 40.5 Hard% for the season is not pretty, he’s in a big park with a strong defense against an offense without a lot of power.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has struck out at least seven in four of his last six starts (21.5 K-BB%) and has quelled early season HR issues without a single one in his last three starts. He’s also gone seven innings in two straight starts, though exceeded 85 pitches for the first time in three starts back from the DL last time out. The good news is that he may only need around 90 pitches to get through seven innings against the Padres, who strike out over a quarter of the time on the road and against LHP. It’s the top matchup on the board.
Jon Lester has pitched into the seventh inning in four of five starts and struck out at least seven in three of his last four. He’ll occasionally put up double digit strikeouts, but is generally just going to be good. His peripherals and batted balls are pretty much in line with the last several seasons. He strikes out around a quarter of the batters he faces and manages contact well. He’s in an incredibly interesting spot tonight. The Diamondbacks have a 25.4 K% vs LHP and that may sustain, but their incredibly pathetic overall production against southpaws was built up before acquiring Martinez, before Pollock got healthy and before Goldschmidt caught fire. This is likely a tougher matchup that it looks.
Steven Matz has allowed at least three ERs in fewer than six innings in six straight starts. While he did strikeout seven of 22 Dodgers in his last start, his 6.9 SwStr% in that start is the same as his pathetic mark for the season. His 40.7% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and his hard hit rate has been above 50% in three of his last five starts. This is all horrible stuff. You may be wondering if I placed him in the wrong section. Let’s get to the good news though. It’s a small victory that he’s generated a 58.1 GB% over his last three starts and has even started well a couple of times before falling apart. His last two starts were against the Dodgers and in Colorado. Tonight, he gets a significant step down in competition in Philadelphia. The Phillies have an 8.5 HR/FB and 1.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Brent Suter (.313 – 74.5% – 7.4) had been a person of interest for us for a while with solid peripherals (14.2 K-BB%) and strong contact management (6.7 Hard-Soft%, 85.2 mph aEV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE, 26.2% 95+ mph EV), but not all of that has held up through two August starts in which he’s lasted a total of 9.1 innings with more than one-third of batted balls categorized as hard hit in two starts. The Reds are one of the hottest teams in the league (4.4 K-BB%, 23.2 HR/FB last seven days) in a dangerous park.
Dylan Bundy (.263 – 75.4% – 12.1) struck out a season high 10 batters last time out, but had preceded it with a total of 17 over his previous four starts, while he’s a significant risk with a lot of hard contact in the air. While a favorable park and a high strikeout spot (A’s 25 K% vs RHP), this is a team with some power.
Mike Fiers (.271 – 81.9% – 20.2) had some things working for a while there, but has gotten thrashed for 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 16.1 innings with five HRs and a SwStr% that can’t nearly support his K% over the last month.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sean Manaea has a 40.2% 95+ mph EV that’s second highest on the board with a collapsing strikeout rate. He has just a 32.6 GB% with six HRs in five starts since the All-Star break. He could be tiring, although he’s still 40 innings below his career high, set last year. The Orioles have a 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP.
Ian Kennedy has an unsustainable .241 BABIP that’s countered by a low strand rate. While he’s in a favorable spot in Chicago in a park that’s actually a more pitcher friendly run environment, it may actually be a downgrade for his skillset. His 89.7 mph aEV and 10.4% Barrels/BBE are worst on the board. Made worse by his declining strikeout rate over the last month.
Patrick Corbin is missing a lot of bats, but generates too much hard contact in a difficult park against an offense that handles LHP well (11.6 BB%, 18.5 HR/FB).
Jeff Hoffman struck out eight Phillies in seven one run innings last time out. It was the first time in seven starts that he’d struck out more than five and his first time in 10 starts with a SwStr rate above 8%.
JC Ramirez has a 56.9 GB% with a hard hit rate just below 30% over his last nine starts, in which he’s dipped below a 50 GB% just once, but also has just a 5.1 K-BB% over this span.
Jhoulys Chacin has been a solid contact manager and the negative run environment even neutralizes the Dodger offense somewhat, but his 16.9 K% over the last month won’t work.
Lucas Sims has struck out around a quarter of batters faced in AA and higher since 2015, but just six of his first 50 major league ones. He also has to face the hottest offense in baseball (14.9 BB%, 23.6 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Tyson Ross struck out eight of 25 AA batters in seven one run innings in his most recent rehab start, but it’s really one of only two times he’s even looked decent this year and he’s facing the Astros.
Scott Feldman has pitched one inning of professional baseball over the last month.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.6% | 6.6% | Home | 28.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.0% | Home | 21.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 5.8% |
Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.3% | Home | 22.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 9.3% |
Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.2% | Home | 31.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.0% | 8.6% | Road | 24.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.0% | Road | 21.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 1.9% |
Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.1% | 5.5% | Home | 20.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 0.0% |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.0% | 6.9% | Home | 22.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.2% |
Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.4% | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.2% |
James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.6% | Home | 17.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 5.7% |
JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.4% | 7.7% | Road | 17.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 6.7% |
Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.6% | 9.0% | Road | 20.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.5% | Road | 22.6% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.8% |
Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.7% | Road | 18.4% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.6% | Road | 24.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 16.8% | 6.2% | Home | 14.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 3.6% |
Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.2% | 9.3% | Road | 18.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 10.0% | 6.4% | Home | 10.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | ||
Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.8% | 7.4% | Home | 26.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 8.5% |
Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 12.0% | 4.0% | Road | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% | ||
Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 6.0% | Home | 34.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 6.5% |
Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.0% | 12.7% | Road | 24.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 20.0% |
Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.3% | Road | 19.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 10.9% |
Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.6% | Home | 20.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 6.4% |
Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.0% | Road | 19.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | ||
Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.1% | Home | 21.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 7.9% |
Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.7% | Road | 20.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 9.1% |
Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.1% | 7.1% | Road | 16.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.3% | 10.2% | Home | 16.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | ||
Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mets | Road | 20.9% | 8.3% | RH | 19.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.1% |
Reds | Road | 20.3% | 8.0% | LH | 21.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 14.4% |
Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 19.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.9% |
Indians | Road | 18.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.3% |
Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 10.4% | LH | 23.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.1% |
Athletics | Home | 24.7% | 9.5% | RH | 25.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 8.8% |
Angels | Road | 20.7% | 8.6% | RH | 19.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.8% |
Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.3% | LH | 25.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.2% |
White Sox | Home | 23.2% | 7.4% | RH | 23.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.1% |
Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
Mariners | Home | 21.4% | 8.7% | RH | 21.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.1% |
Marlins | Home | 20.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.0% |
Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | RH | 19.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
Dodgers | Home | 22.7% | 10.4% | RH | 22.7% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.4% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 23.2% | 9.6% | LH | 25.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.2% |
Twins | Road | 22.2% | 9.2% | RH | 22.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.8% |
Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.1% |
Rockies | Road | 24.6% | 7.4% | LH | 23.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 5.8% |
Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 8.7% | RH | 19.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.6% |
Cardinals | Home | 21.6% | 9.9% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 14.9% |
Giants | Road | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.1% |
Rays | Home | 25.5% | 9.5% | RH | 25.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.7% | 6.5% |
Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 23.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 8.2% |
Cubs | Road | 22.3% | 9.4% | LH | 21.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.1% |
Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 8.5% | RH | 25.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.5% |
Orioles | Road | 22.8% | 6.1% | LH | 24.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 15.8% | 4.2% |
Phillies | Home | 22.9% | 8.4% | LH | 21.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.0% |
Blue Jays | Home | 20.4% | 8.8% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.4% |
Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.5% | RH | 17.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.3% |
Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 8.5% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 2017 | 30.4% | 10.0% | 6.8% | Home | 28.6% | 17.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 2017 | 28.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | Home | 32.0% | 5.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% |
Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 2017 | 33.4% | 15.8% | 15.2% | Home | 28.9% | 14.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 18.2% | 11.5% |
Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 36.0% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 2017 | 38.5% | 12.4% | 23.6% | Home | 36.5% | 11.0% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 25.0% | 39.4% |
Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 2017 | 32.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | Road | 30.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 11.1% | 15.4% |
Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 2017 | 35.7% | 12.1% | 17.5% | Road | 34.2% | 13.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 6.7% | 24.3% |
Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.5% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 2017 | 40.5% | 17.6% | 25.6% | Home | 29.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 35.7% | 28.2% |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 36.1% | 18.6% | 17.9% | 2017 | 35.5% | 18.8% | 16.4% | Home | 36.4% | 26.7% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 0.0% | 24.1% |
Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.7% | 12.9% | 21.5% | 2017 | 40.1% | 13.2% | 27.3% | Road | 34.7% | 13.6% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 7.7% | 33.3% |
James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.1% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 2017 | 35.0% | 16.8% | 17.5% | Home | 33.6% | 17.9% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 21.7% | 26.3% |
JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 2017 | 35.1% | 15.6% | 18.0% | Road | 33.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.7% | 2.0% |
Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 2017 | 33.3% | 9.2% | 14.8% | Road | 29.7% | 13.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 14.3% | 24.2% |
Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.3% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 2017 | 29.4% | 15.5% | 8.5% | Road | 30.8% | 16.3% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 6.3% | 29.5% |
Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 2017 | 28.9% | 14.8% | 7.4% | Road | 32.7% | 20.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 18.2% | 13.2% |
Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.4% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 2017 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 5.4% | Road | 26.4% | 14.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 14.8% |
Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 2017 | 38.2% | 13.9% | 24.0% | Home | 37.3% | 13.2% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 33.8% | 7.1% | 19.1% |
Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 2017 | 26.1% | 10.0% | 4.4% | Road | 30.2% | 13.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 11.1% | 6.3% |
Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.0% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2017 | 26.7% | 26.3% | 16.0% | Home | 30.1% | 8.7% | 16.8% | L14 Days | |||
Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.2% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 2017 | 28.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% | Home | 30.3% | 19.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 9.1% | 16.0% |
Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 35.0% | 18.8% | 15.0% | 2017 | 35.0% | 18.8% | 15.0% | Road | L14 Days | 35.0% | 18.8% | 15.0% | |||
Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 2017 | 28.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | Home | 26.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 2017 | 34.9% | 13.9% | 19.0% | Road | 31.8% | 11.4% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 25.0% | 29.4% |
Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.6% | 13.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 20.2% | 10.6% | Road | 32.9% | 18.9% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 23.5% | 18.4% |
Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.2% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 2017 | 32.9% | 17.6% | 15.8% | Home | 37.8% | 14.7% | 23.2% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 40.0% | 25.8% |
Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 28.0% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 17.6% | 9.8% | Road | 28.1% | 18.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | |||
Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.5% | 16.3% | 2017 | 33.6% | 11.2% | 17.8% | Home | 32.8% | 10.4% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 25.0% | 30.3% |
Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 30.7% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 2017 | 35.1% | 18.3% | 15.5% | Road | 27.9% | 11.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 40.0% | 25.8% |
Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 2017 | 29.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | Road | 27.2% | 20.4% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 27.5% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 2017 | 31.3% | 13.2% | 18.8% | Home | 35.9% | 11.1% | 21.8% | L14 Days | |||
Chris Rowley | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mets | Road | 36.8% | 15.8% | 19.8% | RH | 35.2% | 13.4% | 18.0% | L7Days | 37.2% | 25.4% | 16.0% |
Reds | Road | 30.5% | 13.7% | 10.9% | LH | 29.1% | 15.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 31.3% | 23.2% | 12.6% |
Braves | Road | 31.7% | 12.5% | 13.8% | RH | 30.8% | 11.1% | 12.4% | L7Days | 35.6% | 6.4% | 20.0% |
Indians | Road | 34.7% | 11.7% | 18.4% | RH | 33.6% | 12.0% | 16.6% | L7Days | 29.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% |
Yankees | Home | 30.2% | 19.2% | 9.8% | LH | 28.9% | 11.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 29.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
Athletics | Home | 32.1% | 14.9% | 17.3% | RH | 33.8% | 14.7% | 17.7% | L7Days | 37.0% | 14.0% | 25.3% |
Angels | Road | 32.3% | 11.2% | 13.0% | RH | 31.0% | 12.9% | 11.3% | L7Days | 29.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
Padres | Road | 30.9% | 15.0% | 9.1% | LH | 31.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 36.5% | 17.1% | 12.2% |
White Sox | Home | 28.4% | 12.8% | 6.7% | RH | 30.5% | 13.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 9.4% | 12.1% |
Royals | Road | 32.0% | 13.7% | 12.5% | RH | 31.3% | 12.1% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 13.9% | 3.6% |
Mariners | Home | 29.1% | 12.5% | 9.7% | RH | 30.2% | 12.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 27.1% | 18.5% | 7.1% |
Marlins | Home | 31.6% | 15.1% | 9.9% | RH | 31.7% | 15.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 11.4% | 6.8% |
Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 16.0% | RH | 31.9% | 15.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.1% | 14.1% |
Dodgers | Home | 36.8% | 16.7% | 21.0% | RH | 36.0% | 15.4% | 20.5% | L7Days | 44.1% | 18.6% | 30.3% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 38.1% | 16.5% | 23.4% | LH | 32.6% | 15.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 32.5% | 12.9% | 11.1% |
Twins | Road | 30.8% | 11.6% | 12.8% | RH | 33.3% | 12.6% | 16.5% | L7Days | 39.7% | 17.2% | 22.7% |
Tigers | Home | 45.2% | 13.2% | 31.5% | RH | 39.9% | 11.4% | 24.3% | L7Days | 35.2% | 10.9% | 15.1% |
Rockies | Road | 29.3% | 11.7% | 8.1% | LH | 32.8% | 16.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
Red Sox | Road | 31.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | RH | 33.8% | 10.8% | 15.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 14.3% | 14.4% |
Cardinals | Home | 32.2% | 12.4% | 12.7% | RH | 31.3% | 12.7% | 12.4% | L7Days | 36.4% | 18.0% | 23.6% |
Giants | Road | 30.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | RH | 28.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 25.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
Rays | Home | 36.6% | 15.0% | 18.5% | RH | 34.8% | 17.1% | 16.8% | L7Days | 28.3% | 8.2% | 11.6% |
Rangers | Home | 36.6% | 17.2% | 18.5% | RH | 34.5% | 17.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
Cubs | Road | 29.8% | 14.8% | 10.5% | LH | 29.7% | 18.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 18.0% | 8.9% |
Brewers | Home | 37.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | RH | 33.9% | 18.6% | 15.1% | L7Days | 39.8% | 12.1% | 23.9% |
Orioles | Road | 34.2% | 13.9% | 14.5% | LH | 33.9% | 12.8% | 14.9% | L7Days | 29.3% | 19.5% | 11.7% |
Phillies | Home | 29.6% | 14.9% | 9.2% | LH | 28.9% | 14.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.5% | 1.3% |
Blue Jays | Home | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.9% | RH | 30.5% | 14.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.0% | 0.7% |
Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.5% | 15.5% | RH | 33.5% | 15.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 30.4% | 11.3% | 14.0% |
Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 12.3% | 10.4% | RH | 29.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | PHI | 25.4% | 10.3% | 2.47 | 27.5% | 11.1% | 2.48 |
Brent Suter | MIL | 20.4% | 9.5% | 2.15 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 2.00 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.9% | 10.6% | 2.44 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 2.24 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 29.3% | 13.4% | 2.19 | 32.3% | 14.5% | 2.23 |
Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 1.91 |
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.86 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 1.83 |
Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 19.3% | 10.6% | 1.82 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 1.54 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 23.4% | 12.1% | 1.93 | 30.3% | 13.1% | 2.31 |
Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.33 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 2.44 |
James Shields | CHW | 17.2% | 8.9% | 1.93 | 15.8% | 8.9% | 1.78 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 2.25 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 20.2% | 8.6% | 2.35 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 2.19 |
Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 25.0% | 10.4% | 2.40 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 |
Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.43 | 16.9% | 7.0% | 2.41 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 25.1% | 11.3% | 2.22 | 28.8% | 11.9% | 2.42 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.88 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 1.72 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 2.31 |
Justin Nicolino | MIA | 14.3% | 6.4% | 2.23 | |||
Luis Severino | NYY | 28.6% | 12.3% | 2.33 | 29.2% | 12.9% | 2.26 |
Luke Sims | ATL | 12.0% | 8.6% | 1.40 | 12.0% | 8.6% | 1.40 |
Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.5% | 16.0% | 2.22 | 35.6% | 16.0% | 2.23 |
Mike Clevinger | CLE | 26.0% | 13.0% | 2.00 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 1.79 |
Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.47 | 27.1% | 8.5% | 3.19 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 21.4% | 11.4% | 1.88 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 1.72 |
Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.8% | 8.1% | 2.44 | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.00 |
Sean Manaea | OAK | 22.1% | 12.4% | 1.78 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 1.78 |
Steven Matz | NYM | 17.0% | 6.9% | 2.46 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.52 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.0% | 8.0% | 2.13 | 17.5% | 6.5% | 2.69 |
Tyson Ross | TEX | 18.2% | 7.2% | 2.53 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.68 |
Chris Rowley | TOR |
There’s just a single outlier on the entire board for the season and he has just two short major league starts under his belt.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.12 | 3.72 | 0.6 | 3.54 | 0.42 | 3.12 | 0 | 2.93 | -0.19 | 1.97 | 3.44 | 1.47 | 3.47 | 1.5 | 2.45 | 0.48 |
Brent Suter | MIL | 3.31 | 4.14 | 0.83 | 4.09 | 0.78 | 3.28 | -0.03 | 5.97 | 2.66 | 3.67 | 4.3 | 0.63 | 4.13 | 0.46 | 3.8 | 0.13 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.52 | 3.85 | 0.33 | 3.62 | 0.1 | 3.84 | 0.32 | 3.26 | -0.26 | 3.94 | 3.72 | -0.22 | 3.44 | -0.5 | 4.13 | 0.19 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 3.8 | 3.45 | -0.35 | 3.39 | -0.41 | 3.23 | -0.57 | 2.68 | -1.12 | 3.19 | 3.2 | 0.01 | 3.27 | 0.08 | 3.59 | 0.4 |
Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.36 | 4.06 | 0.7 | 3.81 | 0.45 | 3.68 | 0.32 | 3.88 | 0.52 | 2.64 | 4.49 | 1.85 | 4.24 | 1.6 | 3.88 | 1.24 |
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.15 | 4.71 | 0.56 | 4.98 | 0.83 | 4.7 | 0.55 | 4.73 | 0.58 | 3.42 | 4.12 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 1.08 | 4.05 | 0.63 |
Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 5.1 | 4.05 | -1.05 | 4.14 | -0.96 | 4.71 | -0.39 | 4.39 | -0.71 | 4.73 | 3.81 | -0.92 | 4.24 | -0.49 | 6.58 | 1.85 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.53 | 3.9 | 0.37 | 3.73 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 0.77 | 4.32 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 3.09 | 2.14 | 2.69 | 1.74 | 1.66 | 0.71 |
Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.83 | 4.8 | -0.03 | 5.1 | 0.27 | 5.01 | 0.18 | 5.05 | 0.22 | 6.08 | 4.92 | -1.16 | 5.18 | -0.9 | 4.37 | -1.71 |
James Shields | CHW | 6.03 | 5.4 | -0.63 | 6.03 | 0 | 6.69 | 0.66 | 6.82 | 0.79 | 7.52 | 5.36 | -2.16 | 5.95 | -1.57 | 6.44 | -1.08 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.21 | 4.58 | 0.37 | 4.42 | 0.21 | 4.66 | 0.45 | 4.38 | 0.17 | 3.48 | 5.13 | 1.65 | 4.81 | 1.33 | 4.44 | 0.96 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 5.03 | 4.54 | -0.49 | 4.69 | -0.34 | 4 | -1.03 | 5.31 | 0.28 | 6.92 | 5.05 | -1.87 | 5.19 | -1.73 | 5.13 | -1.79 |
Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.75 | 3.45 | -1.3 | 3.3 | -1.45 | 3.53 | -1.22 | 3.18 | -1.57 | 5.4 | 4.23 | -1.17 | 4.19 | -1.21 | 3.92 | -1.48 |
Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.15 | 4.46 | 0.31 | 4.26 | 0.11 | 4.38 | 0.23 | 4.43 | 0.28 | 3.56 | 5.14 | 1.58 | 4.62 | 1.06 | 4.32 | 0.76 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 3.97 | 3.79 | -0.18 | 3.59 | -0.38 | 3.8 | -0.17 | 3.29 | -0.68 | 3.03 | 3.17 | 0.14 | 3.19 | 0.16 | 3.26 | 0.23 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.27 | 5.1 | -0.17 | 5.27 | 0 | 5.3 | 0.03 | 5.50 | 0.23 | 3.45 | 5.18 | 1.73 | 5.33 | 1.88 | 3.77 | 0.32 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.86 | 4.23 | 0.37 | 4.53 | 0.67 | 3.98 | 0.12 | 3.88 | 0.02 | 4.81 | 5.03 | 0.22 | 5.39 | 0.58 | 4.12 | -0.69 |
Justin Nicolino | MIA | 5.31 | 5 | -0.31 | 4.75 | -0.56 | 6.28 | 0.97 | 7.79 | 2.48 | |||||||
Luis Severino | NYY | 2.91 | 3.27 | 0.36 | 3.08 | 0.17 | 2.9 | -0.01 | 2.81 | -0.10 | 0.83 | 3.35 | 2.52 | 3.25 | 2.42 | 2.12 | 1.29 |
Luke Sims | ATL | 5.25 | 5.32 | 0.07 | 5.5 | 0.25 | 6.38 | 1.13 | 7.24 | 1.99 | 5.25 | 5.32 | 0.07 | 5.5 | 0.25 | 6.38 | 1.13 |
Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.23 | 2.76 | 0.53 | 3.08 | 0.85 | 2.84 | 0.61 | 2.08 | -0.15 | 2.88 | 3.22 | 0.34 | 3.2 | 0.32 | 4.09 | 1.21 |
Mike Clevinger | CLE | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 4.37 | 0.37 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 3.82 | -0.18 | 8.16 | 5.01 | -3.15 | 5.16 | -3 | 5.65 | -2.51 |
Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.06 | 4.29 | 0.23 | 4.42 | 0.36 | 5.3 | 1.24 | 5.15 | 1.09 | 4.75 | 3.81 | -0.94 | 4.36 | -0.39 | 5.31 | 0.56 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.76 | 4.05 | -0.71 | 3.87 | -0.89 | 4.37 | -0.39 | 6.12 | 1.36 | 4.94 | 3.99 | -0.95 | 3.99 | -0.95 | 4.89 | -0.05 |
Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.34 | 4.44 | 0.1 | 4.09 | -0.25 | 4.51 | 0.17 | 4.95 | 0.61 | 45 | 10.32 | -34.68 | 15.02 | -29.98 | 32.13 | -12.87 |
Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.15 | 4.29 | 0.14 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 3.96 | -0.19 | 4.31 | 0.16 | 5.54 | 5.06 | -0.48 | 5.49 | -0.05 | 5.48 | -0.06 |
Steven Matz | NYM | 5.77 | 4.5 | -1.27 | 4.32 | -1.45 | 4.96 | -0.81 | 5.88 | 0.11 | 11.17 | 3.77 | -7.4 | 3.19 | -7.98 | 4.69 | -6.48 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.17 | 4.54 | 0.37 | 4.37 | 0.2 | 3.8 | -0.37 | 3.86 | -0.31 | 2.64 | 4.39 | 1.75 | 4.05 | 1.41 | 3.2 | 0.56 |
Tyson Ross | TEX | 7.52 | 5.54 | -1.98 | 5.78 | -1.74 | 5.7 | -1.82 | 5.16 | -2.36 | 15.43 | 5.62 | -9.81 | 6.02 | -9.41 | 7.71 | -7.72 |
Chris Rowley | TOR |
Erasmo Ramirez allows a lot of hard contact and it’s tough to argue with a 17.6 HR/FB, but his 65.3 LOB% might be a touch low.
Steven Matz has a .333 BABIP and 18.3 HR/FB, but he’s been allowing a ton of hard contact and the defense sucked. Maybe having a real shortstop will help him?
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.297 | 0.301 | 0.004 | 49.4% | 0.182 | 7.0% | 84.7% | 85.8 | 4.20% | 29.10% | 309 |
Brent Suter | MIL | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 45.4% | 0.215 | 13.0% | 85.6% | 85.2 | 4.30% | 26.20% | 164 |
Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.277 | -0.017 | 50.9% | 0.184 | 9.2% | 86.2% | 87.2 | 5.60% | 34.70% | 395 |
Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.319 | 0.035 | 41.2% | 0.224 | 10.3% | 81.2% | 88.9 | 5.70% | 40.00% | 403 |
Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.317 | 0.012 | 42.8% | 0.238 | 10.8% | 84.4% | 86.9 | 7.10% | 33.00% | 339 |
Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.263 | -0.052 | 32.1% | 0.213 | 13.7% | 85.7% | 88.3 | 7.80% | 36.50% | 395 |
Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.282 | 0.003 | 47.5% | 0.171 | 4.7% | 84.6% | 88.2 | 9.10% | 36.40% | 242 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.280 | 0.308 | 0.028 | 46.7% | 0.222 | 7.5% | 82.4% | 86.9 | 6.90% | 32.80% | 262 |
Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.241 | -0.058 | 38.3% | 0.15 | 7.2% | 84.0% | 89.7 | 10.40% | 36.70% | 327 |
James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.275 | -0.013 | 35.9% | 0.15 | 5.0% | 85.3% | 88.5 | 10.20% | 38.30% | 206 |
JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.291 | 0.006 | 50.4% | 0.189 | 7.8% | 87.5% | 87.1 | 6.40% | 34.40% | 422 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 41.6% | 0.184 | 8.2% | 89.5% | 87.3 | 6.40% | 36.10% | 249 |
Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.317 | 0.319 | 0.002 | 43.5% | 0.235 | 7.7% | 84.3% | 86.3 | 5.50% | 31.00% | 436 |
Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.273 | -0.034 | 51.4% | 0.187 | 14.8% | 89.9% | 85.7 | 5.90% | 27.90% | 391 |
Jon Lester | CHC | 0.283 | 0.297 | 0.014 | 48.0% | 0.197 | 5.7% | 83.6% | 85.1 | 5.10% | 27.50% | 389 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.309 | 0 | 33.4% | 0.25 | 12.1% | 90.7% | 88.7 | 7.30% | 35.30% | 422 |
Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.276 | -0.022 | 39.9% | 0.19 | 10.9% | 85.5% | 85.6 | 5.10% | 28.70% | 272 |
Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.293 | 0.343 | 0.05 | 48.6% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 87.7% | 85.5 | 6.70% | 30.70% | 75 |
Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.286 | -0.004 | 51.0% | 0.185 | 11.0% | 84.2% | 87.3 | 5.80% | 34.50% | 362 |
Luke Sims | ATL | 0.292 | 0.243 | -0.049 | 31.6% | 0.263 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 87.1 | 5.00% | 32.50% | 40 |
Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.234 | -0.059 | 38.2% | 0.158 | 12.5% | 78.5% | 86.1 | 6.60% | 30.80% | 334 |
Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.274 | -0.029 | 39.9% | 0.218 | 9.7% | 79.4% | 88.3 | 7.90% | 35.40% | 189 |
Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 44.1% | 0.186 | 7.8% | 85.4% | 86.3 | 8.00% | 32.60% | 350 |
Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.294 | 0.354 | 0.06 | 49.2% | 0.206 | 9.6% | 87.3% | 88.3 | 7.70% | 36.50% | 417 |
Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.293 | 0.296 | 0.003 | 43.8% | 0.276 | 10.6% | 87.2% | 83.8 | 6.50% | 25.90% | 309 |
Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 44.3% | 0.194 | 5.6% | 85.9% | 88.7 | 6.00% | 40.20% | 348 |
Steven Matz | NYM | 0.320 | 0.333 | 0.013 | 47.6% | 0.209 | 11.7% | 88.1% | 88.2 | 7.70% | 40.70% | 194 |
Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.287 | -0.021 | 50.0% | 0.193 | 14.0% | 90.5% | 84.9 | 5.40% | 28.70% | 335 |
Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.289 | 0.272 | -0.017 | 38.9% | 0.211 | 7.9% | 90.3% | 85.8 | 7.30% | 27.10% | 96 |
Chris Rowley | TOR | 0.307 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Hyun-Jin Ryu (1) has struck out 15 of or his last 45 batters in 14 shutout innings and gets to host the Padres tonight. He may have some sort of pitch limitation, but could see 100 and costs less than $10K in a high strikeout upside spot.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola (2) has reached a price point where you can’t just jam him into your lineup and go about the rest of your business. That drops him from the top value tier, but he certainly remains one of the stronger arms on the slate and may not even have reached his full potential yet.
Jon Lester (3) may be in a more difficult matchup than the numbers suggest in Arizona, but it’s not one that we should expect him to fail to navigate. There’s some value in a cost below $10K here.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Martinez (4) has been striking out batters at a high clip over his last start and generating lots of ground balls. He’s in a favorable spot against Atlanta, but it’s an offense that makes contact and he’s not without flaws, specifically against LHBs. He’s now the most expensive pitcher on the board too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Erasmo Ramirez is a very low cost arm with an ability to strike out batters at a league average rate. While he doesn’t go deep into starts, he can cover this cost in five innings and is in a nice spot.
Steven Matz is a matchup play. He’s been getting bombed, but has at least been keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off of two very difficult spots into a much more favorable one. More than any other pitcher on the staff, he stands to benefit from the defensive upgrade at shortstop.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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