Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, August 11th
Although not that high at the top, it’s a very deep board on a full Friday slate. In fact, just about half the board appears at least usable without much separation. That could make this a long article, though I’ll attempt to be brief in areas of disinterest.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -1.5 | 4.36 | 5.78 | 45.2% | 0.98 | 3.88 | 10.37 | ATL | 91 | 86 | 66 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 1.7 | 4.39 | 5.25 | 39.5% | 0.98 | 4.32 | 5.44 | MIN | 87 | 98 | 125 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.3 | 3.35 | 5.89 | 46.7% | 0.96 | 3.32 | 5.46 | TAM | 106 | 106 | 48 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.5 | 3.76 | 5.49 | 53.4% | 1.11 | 3.59 | 4.14 | TEX | 106 | 98 | 97 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | -3 | 5.65 | 5.6 | 44.7% | 1.01 | 5.15 | 6.23 | WAS | 116 | 107 | 106 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.4 | 4.11 | 5.98 | 60.6% | 0.89 | 4.37 | 3.48 | LOS | 119 | 115 | 117 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 1.8 | 4.09 | 6.47 | 49.4% | 1.11 | 4.14 | 3.23 | HOU | 132 | 123 | 135 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 7.2 | 3.85 | 6.1 | 37.8% | 0.98 | 4.18 | 3.92 | CHW | 92 | 105 | 98 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.4 | 4.24 | 5.62 | 35.2% | 1.01 | 4.38 | 4.89 | NYY | 116 | 89 | 107 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 1 | 4.99 | 5.71 | 38.7% | 1.01 | 5.17 | 3.04 | SFO | 85 | 81 | 83 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.3 | 4.79 | 4.35 | 45.2% | 1.02 | 4.13 | 6.21 | MIL | 87 | 90 | 55 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | -0.5 | 4.17 | 6.1 | 38.5% | 0.96 | 4.55 | 3.64 | CLE | 100 | 103 | 37 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 2.4 | 4.05 | 5.89 | 56.2% | 1.01 | 3.5 | 4.81 | BOS | 94 | 101 | 81 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -2.4 | 3.79 | 5.59 | 51.2% | 1.03 | 3.65 | 4.01 | TOR | 94 | 92 | 106 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 2 | 4.41 | 5.96 | 50.4% | 0.89 | 4.27 | 5.88 | SEA | 108 | 102 | 91 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.6 | 4.26 | 5.73 | 50.2% | 1.02 | 3.94 | 2.87 | CIN | 92 | 98 | 120 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.2 | 3.97 | 6.24 | 43.2% | 1.13 | 4.12 | 4.31 | ARI | 107 | 100 | 78 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -3.9 | 3.8 | 5.43 | 44.3% | 0.94 | 3.91 | 3.35 | MIA | 90 | 96 | 61 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.9 | 4.93 | 5.4 | 43.7% | 0.94 | 5.09 | 4.57 | COL | 79 | 79 | 57 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.2 | 4.76 | 5.67 | 51.0% | 0.98 | 4.95 | 4.61 | DET | 114 | 94 | 72 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 7.4 | 4.46 | 3.33 | 42.9% | 0.89 | 5.14 | 3.54 | ANA | 85 | 84 | 98 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.9 | 3.68 | 6.37 | 61.2% | 1.03 | 3.5 | 4.49 | PIT | 89 | 87 | 92 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -1.8 | 4.23 | 5.57 | 39.9% | 0.98 | 4.29 | 3.33 | STL | 103 | 98 | 147 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 2.2 | 4.42 | 5.25 | 40.4% | 0.96 | 3.14 | 4.81 | NYM | 109 | 101 | 66 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -11.2 | 5.26 | 6.43 | 0.524 | 0.93 | 4.81 | 4.98 | BAL | 90 | 100 | 116 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | -0.1 | 4.55 | 4.85 | 0.414 | 0.98 | 4.72 | KAN | 87 | 90 | 95 | |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.8 | 3.39 | 5.55 | 0.43 | 0.89 | 4.18 | 3.87 | SDG | 81 | 76 | 97 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.6 | 4.7 | 5.95 | 0.417 | 0.96 | 4.62 | 4.57 | PHI | 97 | 87 | 75 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.4 | 4.14 | 5.6 | 0.442 | 1.13 | 4.23 | 2.94 | CHC | 93 | 92 | 87 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -5.1 | 4.67 | 5.36 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 4.68 | 4.44 | OAK | 110 | 103 | 112 |
Carlos Carrasco has allowed five ERs in each of his last two starts against the Yankees and Red Sox. He’s now allowed five runs or more in six of his last 15 starts, but two or fewer in each of the other nine. He’s also failed to strike out more than six over any of his last four outings, but still has a 10 strike out effort within the last month, pulling his numbers up. He did have a 12.4 SwStr% last time out and a sub-30% hard hit rate in three of his last four starts. Velocity for his last two starts has actually been his two best marks of the season, a mile per hour above his season average. It’s probably best to take his season as a whole. His 20.0 K-BB% makes him one of 13 qualified pitchers to have such a mark or better, while his 43.5 GB% is a career low, a bit damning only because it’s led to 9% Barrels/BBE with an 87 mph aEV. While the Rays can take advantage of that with their power (17.3 HR/FB), they’ve been ice cold over the last week (8.0 HR/FB, 30.2 K%) and generally strike out a ton (25% at home and vs RHP).
Charlie Morton has reached the seven inning mark four times this season, twice in his last three starts. His numbers over the last month are very much in line with his season and he’s one of just five pitchers on the slate who’ve struck out more than a quarter of the batters they’ve faced. He’s managed contact well (51.6 GB%, 85 mph aEV, 5.5 Hard-Soft%) and even dropped his walk rate to around league average with just six over his last four starts. Contact management has been exceptional since the start of July (his return from the DL) with a -20.2 Hard-Soft%, despite velocity being down the whole time. While the Rangers will strike out (23.9% vs RHP), they do present a problem with a 17 HR/FB at home, vs RHP and over the last week. Taking Houston out of the equation because they belong in a tougher league, this may represent the toughest matchup on the slate otherwise.
Danny Duffy has struck out more than four in consecutive starts (14 of 56) for only the fourth time this year. His velocity has been incredibly inconsistent from start to start and he’s needed those strikeouts with a 26 GB% and 25.7 Hard-Soft% over his last four starts and he still allowed three bombs in his last start. His HR distribution has just been bizarre this season as well. He allowed one in each of his first two starts and since has three outing with multiple HRs, amounting to all 10 he’s allowed this year. While the overall run environment appears an upgrade, it could be a downgrade for him because Chicago is a smaller park, though the matchup is favorable. The White Sox have a 25.1 K% and 7.8 HR/FB over the last week and probably shouldn’t be considered a strong offense against LHP any longer. They also have just a 6.2 Hard-Soft% at home and 91 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers.
Eduardo Rodriguez has retained his strikeout rate, but increased his walk rate to 11.2% in four starts since returning from the DL. His velocity is down a bit as well, which makes one wonder if he’s still having issues with that knee. The interesting thing is that he’s seemed to have picked up a cutter (or reintroduced it depending on where you look) since his return, which he’s adding to his secondary mix, still throwing his four-seamer 70% of the time. It doesn’t appear to be a very good pitch. He’s thrown it 72 times and already allowed six hits (two for extra-bases, one HR) in 18 ABs ending with the pitch. The matchup in the Bronx is not as bad as some may think. The Yankees have not been very good against LHP (7.0 Hard-Soft%), though they’ve punished opposing pitchers at home (19.6 HR/FB) and are the second best offense against fly ball pitchers (116 sOPS+).
Jacob Faria struck out over 30% of AAA batters this year and then had a 23.6 K-BB% through his first five major league starts before striking out just 15 of his next 105 batters. The effort seems to be renewed with a 14+ SwStr% and 17 strikeouts (43 batters) over his last two starts. There’s nothing immediately evident in his velocity or pitch mix that stands out over these very different stretches. While he’s a fly ball pitcher (38.5 GB%) with somewhat average authority allowed, the Tribe is third best against fly ball pitchers (115 sOPS+), but have stunk over the last week (25.2 K%, 7.7 HR/FB).
Jaime Garcia gets to pitch in the same uniform twice in a row for the first time in a while. His 11.3 SwStr% this year is a point above his career rate, but his 18.3 K% is nearly a point below. The good news is that he’s running league average in both metrics over the last month, not letting where he pitches disturb him much. He’s also had a ground ball rate above 60% in three of four starts, which has aided in his not allowing a HR since June. That won’t last forever, but while the Red Sox don’t strike out against LHP (6.6 K-BB%), they don’t have a lot of power (11.0 HR/FB on the road, 9.6 HR/FB vs LHP).
Jameson Taillon struck out eight in his last start and has done so (or better) in three of his last six starts, the only three times he’s done so this season, but has also struck out five or fewer in the other three starts. His 6.1 innings pitched is also just the second time he’s gone that deep since his third start. It’s not a pitch limitation, as he’s regularly at or even a little above 100. He doesn’t walk many (7.4%) or strike out a ton (22.1%). Maybe it’s foul balls? Taken as a whole, he’s been a good pitcher, if not a superstar (14.7 K-BB%, 49.8 GB%, 3.8 Hard-Soft%, 84.8 mph aEV, 30.2% 95+ mph EV), who’s been showing a bit more upside in his strikeout rate recently. He transitions to a tougher park, where the Blue Jays have been a disappointment this year. They oddly have a 17.3 K-BB% and -4.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Jimmy Nelson may be moving a bit out of line with a strikeout rate exceeding 30% over the last month without an increase in SwStr%, but his 11.6% rate for the season is tied for third on the board (with a pitcher who’s strikeout rate is 7.5 points less ironically). By now, we know that LHBs have continued to hit him hard when making contact, but have just done so much less often since May (38.1 Hard%, 36.6 K%). RHBs pound the ball into the ground (54.7 GB%, -3.7 Hard-Soft%). The interesting thing is that although the hard contact has continued, he’s now keeping LHBs on the ground 60.9% of the time over his last six starts too. He’s now pitched into the seventh inning in eight of his last 14 starts as well. Cincinnati is a power friendly, but not an extremely run positive environment. The Reds have a 6.1 K-BB% and 20.9 HR/FB over the last week, but are an otherwise nearly average offense.
Jon Gray has been inconsistent in his K% and downright concerning in his SwStr% this year. He’s been below 8.5% in six of his 10 starts and below 6% in half of them. Velocity seems to be fine. It’s just that batters don’t seem to be swinging at all as much as last season, in or out of zone. They’re also making more contact when they do, in or out of zone. The good news has been about a five point hike in GB rate, which they probably like at Coors, while his 84 mph aEV is one of the top marks on the board. He’s in a very favorable spot in Miami, facing a very cold offense. The Marlins have a 25.4 Hard% over the last week and I cringe to wonder what it may be without Mr. Stanton.
Marcus Stroman is the only qualified pitcher above a 60% ground ball rate. In fact, his 62.1 GB% leads the majors by a full four points and is enhanced by a league average strikeout rate. The problem has generally been that he has been unable to limit hard contact, driving his BABIP above .300. But hold on a minute! Over his last eight starts, he has a 65.6 GB% with a 2.0 Hard-Soft% and 18.5 LD%. This may be flying under the radar because he has an unsubstantiated .325 BABIP over this span. He’s even got a 12.5 IFFB% during this run. The Pirates may be just the cure he needed. They may lower his strikeout upside, but don’t make a lot of hard contact.
Nick Pivetta allows a lot of hard contact (88.3 mph aEV) and can’t fully support his above average strikeout rate with his SwStr%, but can nearly support a league average one and I’m willing to throw out the beating he just endured in Colorado. In fact, he’s allowed more than four runs just three times: in Colorado, Milwaukee and Arizona…three very hitter friendly environments. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but he may only need to be okay. The other interesting thing is that he has a 27.7 K-BB% at home this year, though it’s only been six starts. The Mets have been an average offense this year, but are trying things out and have traded away some thump in the middle of the lineup. They can still do some damage (21.8 HR/FB over the last week), but also have a 30.7 K% over the last seven days. They are also tied for the worst sOPS+ in the majors (79) against fly ball pitchers.
Reynaldo Lopez was the 28th best prospect in the majors this pre-season (55 FV), according to Fangraphs and his 15.9 K-BB% in AAA for the White Sox has done little to change that. He’s been a proficient fly ball pitcher at every level above A ball and has a 20.9 K% in 44 major league innings for the Nationals last year. His 11.0 BB% was a concern, though it hadn’t previously been in the minors. However, his 9.5 BB% at AAA this year was his highest mark since low A ball three years ago. The White Sox have put him in a position to succeed against a Kansas City offense without a lot of power and very little patience (6.4 BB% vs RHP).
Rich Hill allowed three HRs to the Mets last time out, the first time he’s allowed multiple HRs in a game since 2009. He also struck out eight or more for the sixth time in eight starts. His 83.2 mph aEV and 28% 95+ mph EV are best on the board among those with more than a handful of starts. The Padres strike out in a quarter of PAs on the road and against LHP and are one of the top matchups on the board. The largest issue is workload. He’s been generally in the 90’s, but has only gone above 95 pitches in one of his last six starts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Taijuan Walker (.282 – 71.8% – 10.7) has a 16% unearned run rate that’s the issue here. Even at home, he nearly makes it because the Cubs are no great threat against RHP, but that 7.6 SwStr% over the last month scares me off.
Jose Urena (.239 – 76.2% – 10.5) has just a 7.9 K-BB%, but is higher on this list than you might suspect because of matchup. He’s got the best one on the board.
Cole Hamels (.235 – 70.6% – 11.5) has Houston. It’ll be interesting to see where players stand on bats in this matchup.
Edwin Jackson (.267 – 66% – 17.8) has actually allowed 21 runs, only 14 of which have been earned. Small sample size strangeness, but one wonders how he’s allowed so many barrels with low exit velocities. The answer may be that while he’s allowed an average amount of hard contact (30.9%), he’s generated a lot of soft too (27.7%).
Nick Blackburn (.236 – 78.1% – 7.0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
John Lackey is almost cheap enough on DraftKings ($6K), but also has the potential to get lit up in Arizona.
Mike Foltynewicz has six occasions of eight or more strikeouts with two ERs or less, so there is something there, but we just don’t see it often enough. He has five strikeout or fewer in 14 of 21 starts and still really struggles with LHBs (.359 wOBA this year). The Cardinals don’t have many of them, but two of the hottest ones in the league. They have a 13.7 BB% and 20 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Clayton Richard does have a SwStr rate above 8.5% in five straight starts with a 60.7 GB% over that span, though with a 21.3 Hard-Soft%. He’s also facing the Dodgers with only an extremely negative run environment saving the matchup from looking disastrous. Interestingly, over this span LHBs have just a 50 GB%, but a 7.7 Hard-Soft% and 28.9 K% without a walk. RHBs have a 64.2 GB%, but with a 25.6 Hard-Soft%. The Dodgers are fourth in the majors with a 119 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers too.
JC Ramirez
EDIT: The Angels seem to have mistakenly listed Ramirez initially. Ricky Nolasco appears to be pitching. More of an effect on hitter selection than pitcher.
Marco Gonzales has allowed four HRs with a 39.3 Hard% in two starts. He’s done everything he can in the minors, but prospect stock keeps dropping for the now 25 year-old, as he has just a 7.7 K-BB% and 35.9 Hard% in 44.2 career innings. With a 38.2 GB%, perhaps Safeco can help him. While he has one of the top matchups tonight, it’s more due the Angels having an inability to make a lot of hard contact than any tendency to strike out a lot.
Home Bailey
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.3% | Home | 20.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 29.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.4% | Home | 22.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 4.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.4% | 6.5% | Road | 27.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 13.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 24.1% | 8.5% | Road | 27.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 13.9% | 13.1% | Road | 14.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.2% | Road | 13.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.5% | 8.2% | Home | 21.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 3.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 6.3% | Road | 25.3% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.2% | Road | 23.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 10.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.9% | 10.0% | Home | 17.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 16.4% | 8.4% | Road | 17.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 24.4% | 8.7% | Home | 21.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 16.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.7% | Home | 20.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 13.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.6% | Road | 21.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 6.1% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.4% | 7.7% | Road | 17.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 10.1% | 11.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.9% | Home | 22.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 5.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.9% | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.6% | 7.9% | Road | 25.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.4% | Home | 15.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 4.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.1% | 9.1% | Road | 15.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.4% | 3.9% | Home | 12.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.8% | Home | 19.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.2% | Road | 21.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 6.5% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.1% | 9.6% | Home | 31.3% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 9.7% | 6.3% | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 1.9% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 11.0% | Home | 15.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.1% | Home | 25.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 7.1% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.0% | Road | 15.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.6% | Home | 21.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.9% | 10.9% | Road | 20.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 4.7% |
| Twins | Road | 22.3% | 9.3% | RH | 22.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.6% |
| Rays | Home | 25.3% | 9.5% | RH | 25.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.2% | 6.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.2% | RH | 23.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | RH | 19.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.7% | 10.4% | LH | 22.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.5% |
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.4% | LH | 16.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.2% | 7.5% | LH | 21.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 10.3% | LH | 23.1% | 10.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.4% | 8.4% | RH | 25.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.0% | 6.0% |
| Indians | Road | 18.3% | 9.3% | RH | 19.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 8.6% | LH | 16.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.4% | 8.8% | RH | 21.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 7.8% | RH | 20.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.1% | 9.5% | RH | 23.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.7% | 7.4% | RH | 22.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Angels | Road | 21.0% | 8.6% | LH | 19.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 8.6% | RH | 18.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.6% | 9.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 13.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.9% | 8.4% | RH | 19.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.9% | 6.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 3.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.1% | 6.0% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.3% |
| Padres | Road | 25.7% | 7.2% | LH | 25.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 8.4% | RH | 23.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.3% | 5.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 9.6% | RH | 24.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 2017 | 29.9% | 13.1% | 8.8% | Home | 29.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 25.0% | 27.3% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.9% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 2017 | 36.8% | 19.8% | 18.4% | Home | 35.9% | 14.6% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 33.3% | 5.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 15.9% | 16.1% | 2017 | 31.7% | 14.5% | 14.0% | Road | 31.9% | 10.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 10.0% | 23.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 26.9% | 15.8% | 6.3% | 2017 | 28.5% | 15.3% | 5.4% | Road | 27.8% | 12.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 10.0% | -25.0% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Years | 26.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2017 | 30.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | Road | 27.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 29.8% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 2017 | 33.1% | 18.9% | 16.0% | Road | 29.2% | 20.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 16.7% | 23.7% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 2017 | 38.3% | 11.5% | 25.0% | Home | 35.8% | 14.5% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 0.0% | 30.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 30.5% | 7.1% | 13.8% | Road | 31.6% | 11.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 15.8% | 31.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 12.8% | 13.1% | Road | 30.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 2017 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 3.2% | Home | 27.4% | 12.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 7.1% | -6.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 28.3% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 2017 | 27.2% | 16.7% | 9.9% | Road | 24.1% | 3.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 2017 | 30.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | Home | 34.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 12.5% | 15.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.6% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 2017 | 28.4% | 12.0% | 6.6% | Home | 30.2% | 21.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 21.2% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 2017 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 3.8% | Road | 30.3% | 15.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 20.0% | -8.5% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 2017 | 35.1% | 15.6% | 18.0% | Road | 33.6% | 16.1% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | Home | 31.3% | 13.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.0% | 15.8% | 17.6% | 2017 | 34.1% | 19.7% | 19.1% | Road | 35.0% | 18.0% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 15.4% | 5.9% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 2017 | 31.0% | 13.6% | 6.9% | Road | 32.9% | 13.3% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 18.2% | 7.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2017 | 32.7% | 10.5% | 13.8% | Home | 32.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 18.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 36.4% | 19.3% | 22.0% | Road | 32.6% | 14.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 20.0% | 5.6% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 40.5% | 35.7% | 19.1% | 2017 | 39.3% | 40.0% | 14.3% | Home | 42.9% | 50.0% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 25.0% | 7.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.1% | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.2% | 15.9% | 7.4% | Home | 31.6% | 13.0% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 2017 | 28.1% | 13.9% | 13.4% | Road | 28.1% | 16.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 25.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 38.6% | 17.2% | 23.7% | 2017 | 38.6% | 17.2% | 23.7% | Home | 37.2% | 20.0% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 8.3% | 13.3% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2017 | 22.5% | 7.0% | 3.4% | Home | 24.1% | 5.3% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% | -2.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 2017 | Home | 31.3% | 14.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2017 | 30.0% | 12.2% | 6.3% | Home | 31.8% | 7.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 30.8% | 25.0% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 36.3% | 11.9% | 19.0% | 2017 | 34.5% | 13.5% | 16.8% | Road | 36.0% | 10.8% | 21.6% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 21.1% | 29.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 2017 | 34.3% | 10.7% | 18.9% | Home | 31.3% | 15.1% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.1% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 2017 | 36.5% | 19.8% | 18.5% | Road | 31.9% | 13.0% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 7.7% | 16.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 31.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | RH | 30.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.6% | 6.4% | 15.4% |
| Twins | Road | 30.5% | 11.3% | 12.3% | RH | 33.2% | 12.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 39.8% | 17.6% | 22.0% |
| Rays | Home | 36.7% | 15.2% | 18.5% | RH | 34.9% | 17.3% | 16.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.5% | 17.5% | 18.1% | RH | 34.4% | 17.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 34.7% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 15.9% | RH | 31.9% | 15.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.6% | 11.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.7% | 17.0% | 21.1% | LH | 35.0% | 17.9% | 18.9% | L7Days | 43.3% | 22.2% | 29.3% |
| Astros | Road | 33.7% | 15.6% | 15.6% | LH | 29.2% | 14.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.6% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.0% | 12.8% | 6.2% | LH | 28.3% | 13.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 27.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.1% | 19.6% | 9.5% | LH | 28.4% | 12.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Giants | Road | 30.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | RH | 28.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.4% | 18.1% | 18.4% | RH | 33.8% | 18.3% | 15.1% | L7Days | 39.9% | 8.5% | 25.8% |
| Indians | Road | 34.6% | 11.8% | 18.1% | RH | 33.5% | 12.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 31.6% | 11.0% | 11.5% | LH | 31.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 14.3% | 19.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 14.5% | 9.6% | RH | 30.4% | 14.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 17.3% | -4.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | RH | 30.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 13.6% | 11.1% | RH | 29.6% | 14.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 20.9% | 14.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.2% | 16.4% | 23.6% | RH | 35.2% | 14.7% | 17.8% | L7Days | 35.7% | 10.2% | 14.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.3% | 15.2% | 9.5% | RH | 31.7% | 15.1% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% | RH | 30.2% | 13.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 45.3% | 13.3% | 31.6% | RH | 39.9% | 11.4% | 24.3% | L7Days | 34.1% | 12.8% | 14.8% |
| Angels | Road | 32.4% | 11.3% | 13.2% | LH | 30.1% | 9.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 28.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | RH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 29.3% | 11.1% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.9% | 12.6% | 12.2% | RH | 31.1% | 12.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 33.2% | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| Mets | Road | 36.7% | 15.7% | 19.9% | RH | 35.0% | 13.3% | 17.9% | L7Days | 33.9% | 21.8% | 14.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.3% | 13.9% | 14.5% | RH | 32.2% | 16.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 19.8% | 13.7% |
| Royals | Road | 32.0% | 13.6% | 12.4% | RH | 31.3% | 12.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.9% | 12.7% | 2.0% |
| Padres | Road | 30.6% | 14.7% | 8.6% | LH | 31.2% | 13.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 35.4% | 16.9% | 8.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.5% | 15.0% | 9.0% | RH | 30.4% | 11.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.0% | -1.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.8% | 14.7% | 10.4% | RH | 31.0% | 14.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.8% | 7.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.0% | 14.9% | 17.1% | RH | 33.7% | 14.7% | 17.5% | L7Days | 37.1% | 12.5% | 24.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 | 9.7% | 7.5% | 1.29 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 19.1% | 8.6% | 2.22 | 14.2% | 7.8% | 1.82 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.8% | 12.5% | 2.14 | 24.1% | 11.7% | 2.06 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 25.6% | 10.5% | 2.44 | 27.1% | 11.5% | 2.36 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 13.8% | 9.6% | 1.44 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.25 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.3% | 8.3% | 1.96 | 17.5% | 10.6% | 1.65 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 15.5% | 8.6% | 1.80 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.68 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.8% | 11.6% | 1.71 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 1.79 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 25.8% | 11.5% | 2.24 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.31 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 17.6% | 10.9% | 1.61 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 1.81 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 12.3% | 9.8% | 1.26 | 11.1% | 8.6% | 1.29 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 24.4% | 12.1% | 2.02 | 24.4% | 12.8% | 1.91 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 18.3% | 11.4% | 1.61 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.08 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.63 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 2.25 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 27.3% | 11.6% | 2.35 | 31.5% | 11.5% | 2.74 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.97 | 16.7% | 9.9% | 1.69 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 22.3% | 8.0% | 2.79 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.89 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 16.4% | 8.5% | 1.93 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 2.47 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.5% | 9.2% | 1.58 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 1.92 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 19.4% | 11.9% | 1.63 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.12 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.9% | 10.1% | 1.97 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 1.97 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.38 | 26.6% | 10.8% | 2.46 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 23.1% | 8.3% | 2.78 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.60 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 9.7% | 5.3% | 1.83 | 10.5% | 5.4% | 1.94 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | ||||||
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.3% | 10.8% | 2.62 | 31.1% | 11.7% | 2.66 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 1.92 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.44 | 27.4% | 7.6% | 3.61 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 20.1% | 7.7% | 2.61 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 2.94 |
Danny Duffy has a SwStr rate behind last year’s 12.9% rate, but two points above his career rate (9.7%). He has a career 2.11 K/SwStr and should be running an above average strikeout rate.
Jaime Garcia should be in line for a few more strikeouts and that’s been happening over the last month even with a small dip in SwStr%.
Jon Gray is not getting as many swings, never mind misses. There’s still time to turn it around, if he wishes. The sample size is only 10 starts. We might have to expect fewer strikeouts though if he can’t at least keep his SwStr% above eight.
Nick Pivetta is a concern, but not yet a panic.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5 | 4.46 | -0.54 | 4.19 | -0.81 | 4.12 | -0.88 | 5.48 | 0.48 | 3.86 | 5.87 | 2.01 | 5.49 | 1.63 | 6.14 | 2.28 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.62 | 4.42 | -2.2 | 4.88 | -1.74 | 5.98 | -0.64 | 7.31 | 0.69 | 7.92 | 5.07 | -2.85 | 5.37 | -2.55 | 7.42 | -0.5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 4.06 | 3.61 | -0.45 | 3.56 | -0.5 | 3.66 | -0.4 | 3.34 | -0.72 | 6.58 | 4.07 | -2.51 | 4.3 | -2.28 | 4.75 | -1.83 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.78 | 3.85 | 0.07 | 3.71 | -0.07 | 3.87 | 0.09 | 3.69 | -0.09 | 3.69 | 3.65 | -0.04 | 3.7 | 0.01 | 3.42 | -0.27 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 6.63 | 5.76 | -0.87 | 5.42 | -1.21 | 4.61 | -2.02 | 6.75 | 0.12 | 4 | 4.88 | 0.88 | 4.74 | 0.74 | 3.36 | -0.64 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 5.17 | 4.17 | -1 | 3.9 | -1.27 | 4.37 | -0.8 | 6.40 | 1.23 | 7.06 | 3.81 | -3.25 | 3.73 | -3.33 | 4.23 | -2.83 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.59 | 4.73 | 1.14 | 4.64 | 1.05 | 4.39 | 0.8 | 4.25 | 0.66 | 3.71 | 4.18 | 0.47 | 4.17 | 0.46 | 4.08 | 0.37 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.48 | 4.49 | 1.01 | 4.61 | 1.13 | 3.57 | 0.09 | 4.36 | 0.88 | 2.78 | 4.34 | 1.56 | 4.54 | 1.76 | 3.1 | 0.32 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.08 | 4.1 | 0.02 | 4.29 | 0.21 | 4.15 | 0.07 | 3.35 | -0.73 | 5.66 | 4.49 | -1.17 | 4.62 | -1.04 | 4.44 | -1.22 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 4.34 | 4.87 | 0.53 | 5.31 | 0.97 | 6.14 | 1.8 | 6.02 | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.29 | 0.54 | 4.69 | 0.94 | 5.34 | 1.59 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 8.86 | 5.5 | -3.36 | 5.35 | -3.51 | 5.74 | -3.12 | 9.36 | 0.50 | 9.24 | 5.68 | -3.56 | 5.65 | -3.59 | 5.23 | -4.01 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 2.81 | 4.17 | 1.36 | 4.32 | 1.51 | 3.55 | 0.74 | 4.28 | 1.47 | 3.72 | 4.64 | 0.92 | 4.81 | 1.09 | 4.07 | 0.35 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 4.49 | 4.53 | 0.04 | 4.2 | -0.29 | 4.03 | -0.46 | 4.91 | 0.42 | 4.26 | 4.25 | -0.01 | 3.82 | -0.44 | 2.7 | -1.56 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 4.6 | 3.99 | -0.61 | 3.64 | -0.96 | 3.36 | -1.24 | 4.24 | -0.36 | 9.64 | 3.84 | -5.8 | 3.49 | -6.15 | 3.01 | -6.63 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.21 | 4.58 | 0.37 | 4.42 | 0.21 | 4.66 | 0.45 | 4.38 | 0.17 | 3.48 | 5.13 | 1.65 | 4.82 | 1.34 | 4.44 | 0.96 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.24 | 3.32 | 0.08 | 3.09 | -0.15 | 3.04 | -0.2 | 3.12 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 2.78 | -0.25 | 2.46 | -0.57 | 2.62 | -0.41 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.81 | 4.49 | -0.32 | 4.67 | -0.14 | 5.57 | 0.76 | 6.11 | 1.30 | 3 | 4.85 | 1.85 | 5.36 | 2.36 | 5.18 | 2.18 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.94 | 3.99 | -0.95 | 3.65 | -1.29 | 3.65 | -1.29 | 4.53 | -0.41 | 6 | 3.97 | -2.03 | 3.7 | -2.3 | 3.91 | -2.09 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.7 | 5.07 | 1.37 | 5.34 | 1.64 | 4.82 | 1.12 | 4.72 | 1.02 | 4.18 | 5 | 0.82 | 5.06 | 0.88 | 4.42 | 0.24 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.03 | 5.19 | -0.84 | 4.85 | -1.18 | 5.5 | -0.53 | 6.49 | 0.46 | 4.82 | 4.6 | -0.22 | 4.12 | -0.7 | 3.67 | -1.15 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 12.27 | 3.96 | -8.31 | 4.06 | -8.21 | 8.73 | -3.54 | 7.35 | -4.92 | 11.25 | 3.54 | -7.71 | 3.16 | -8.09 | 4.64 | -6.61 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.17 | 3.85 | 0.68 | 3.61 | 0.44 | 3.79 | 0.62 | 3.74 | 0.57 | 2.76 | 4.36 | 1.6 | 4.01 | 1.25 | 3.53 | 0.77 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.94 | 4.37 | 0.43 | 4.46 | 0.52 | 4.49 | 0.55 | 5.25 | 1.31 | 4.5 | 3.9 | -0.6 | 4.24 | -0.26 | 4.06 | -0.44 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.89 | 4.42 | -1.47 | 4.59 | -1.3 | 5.12 | -0.77 | 5.39 | -0.50 | 8.64 | 4.25 | -4.39 | 4.33 | -4.31 | 4.94 | -3.7 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 2.6 | 5.26 | 2.66 | 4.88 | 2.28 | 4.05 | 1.45 | 5.08 | 2.48 | 3.45 | 5.17 | 1.72 | 4.64 | 1.19 | 4 | 0.55 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | ||||||||||||||||
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.47 | 3.88 | 0.41 | 4.18 | 0.71 | 3.98 | 0.51 | 4.78 | 1.31 | 2.86 | 3.08 | 0.22 | 3.02 | 0.16 | 3.77 | 0.91 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 4.55 | 4.75 | 0.2 | 4.68 | 0.13 | 4.65 | 0.1 | 6.52 | 1.97 | 4.5 | 4.56 | 0.06 | 4.59 | 0.09 | 4.94 | 0.44 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.6 | 4.27 | 0.67 | 4.21 | 0.61 | 3.83 | 0.23 | 3.87 | 0.27 | 3.42 | 3.31 | -0.11 | 3.38 | -0.04 | 3.77 | 0.35 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.31 | 4.73 | -1.58 | 4.7 | -1.61 | 5.57 | -0.74 | 6.86 | 0.55 | 5.2 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 3.95 | -1.25 | 4.44 | -0.76 |
Danny Duffy has a 7.1 HR/FB, which is why he’s in line with his FIP. We’ve already mentioned the clumpiness of his HR distribution.
Jacob Faria has an 81.3 LOB% and 8.2 HR/FB. The former may be nearly sustainable if he strikes out as many batters as he had been in the minors this year.
Jameson Taillon has a .364 BABIP and that’s the 25.1 LD%. It must be a launch angle thing because he’s managed contact authority fairly well. Although, it may be that all of his hard contact is going into those line drives, which is not necessarily a terrible thing, as he’s allowed just seven HRs. A 5.3% Barrels/BBE might be a better mark of that than HRs, as his home park punishes RH power.
Jon Gray has a .355 BABIP. His 23.1 LD% is high, but not disastrous. He allows about an average amount of hard contact (31%), but gets a lot of weak contact too. Coors is a problem, but I wouldn’t expect him to have an average HR rate and high LD rate if he continues this path of contact authority. Unless his ground ball shave been overwhelmingly weak, but that should benefit his BABIP. He gets a decent amount of pop-ups too.
Marcus Stroman has a 79% strand rate, which is a bit high for someone with an average K%.
Nick Pivetta has a 66.5 LOB% and 17.2 HR/FB. The hard contact in the air (40.4 GB%) in a small park is a concern, especially if he’s not going missing a lot of bats.
Rich Hill has an 80.6 LOB%, which isn’t that far out of line with his strikeout rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.294 | 0.325 | 0.031 | 47.3% | 0.249 | 11.1% | 89.6% | 86.1 | 5.00% | 33.50% | 361 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.309 | 0.330 | 0.021 | 38.0% | 0.201 | 7.3% | 88.1% | 87.1 | 8.50% | 37.20% | 234 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.303 | 0.303 | 0 | 43.5% | 0.221 | 10.3% | 85.7% | 87 | 9.00% | 34.30% | 344 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.285 | -0.01 | 51.6% | 0.201 | 11.1% | 83.8% | 85 | 5.10% | 31.60% | 256 |
| Chris Stratton | SFO | 0.317 | 0.328 | 0.011 | 46.8% | 0.274 | 6.3% | 87.0% | 86.5 | 6.50% | 35.50% | 62 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.307 | 0.360 | 0.053 | 58.1% | 0.212 | 4.2% | 89.7% | 86 | 4.50% | 31.80% | 468 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.235 | -0.054 | 51.4% | 0.18 | 6.4% | 88.1% | 88 | 5.50% | 35.20% | 256 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.313 | 0.014 | 37.5% | 0.204 | 10.0% | 86.0% | 86.4 | 5.30% | 31.60% | 342 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.287 | -0.018 | 34.2% | 0.228 | 4.3% | 83.3% | 87.6 | 8.10% | 32.60% | 221 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.267 | -0.026 | 36.7% | 0.133 | 15.6% | 83.5% | 85.1 | 11.70% | 27.70% | 94 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.293 | 0.387 | 0.094 | 45.2% | 0.28 | 7.1% | 87.6% | 85.8 | 3.70% | 32.10% | 162 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.284 | 0.270 | -0.014 | 38.5% | 0.207 | 16.4% | 84.9% | 86.9 | 5.60% | 36.10% | 180 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.296 | 0.006 | 55.6% | 0.176 | 5.0% | 86.1% | 86.1 | 4.70% | 35.00% | 380 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.308 | 0.364 | 0.056 | 49.8% | 0.251 | 10.8% | 89.8% | 84.8 | 5.30% | 30.20% | 265 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.291 | 0.006 | 50.4% | 0.189 | 7.8% | 87.5% | 87.1 | 6.40% | 34.40% | 422 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.327 | 0.027 | 50.9% | 0.205 | 7.5% | 85.2% | 85.2 | 3.90% | 32.80% | 381 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.283 | 0.275 | -0.008 | 43.1% | 0.192 | 10.2% | 87.4% | 87.4 | 7.00% | 36.70% | 373 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.302 | 0.355 | 0.053 | 48.7% | 0.231 | 11.4% | 92.3% | 84 | 5.10% | 30.40% | 158 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.293 | 0.239 | -0.054 | 39.6% | 0.185 | 10.5% | 89.0% | 85.4 | 9.70% | 30.30% | 350 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.330 | 0.032 | 52.1% | 0.219 | 3.4% | 89.4% | 88.2 | 7.60% | 37.00% | 341 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 0.279 | 0.375 | 0.096 | 46.4% | 0.179 | 10.0% | 90.0% | ||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.319 | 0.012 | 62.1% | 0.173 | 5.7% | 88.8% | 88.2 | 5.60% | 37.80% | 431 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.305 | 0.013 | 38.5% | 0.232 | 6.6% | 84.9% | 87.2 | 6.50% | 32.70% | 367 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.304 | 0.007 | 40.4% | 0.183 | 7.1% | 87.8% | 88.3 | 8.30% | 37.80% | 241 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.292 | 0.236 | -0.056 | 52.4% | 0.184 | 4.7% | 91.3% | 86.2 | 2.00% | 32.00% | 147 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 0.288 | ||||||||||
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.276 | -0.004 | 38.2% | 0.166 | 11.1% | 81.7% | 83.2 | 6.80% | 28.00% | 207 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.320 | 0.296 | -0.024 | 40.8% | 0.233 | 8.1% | 86.7% | 86.6 | 6.20% | 35.40% | 209 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.282 | -0.012 | 46.3% | 0.202 | 7.8% | 85.8% | 87.8 | 6.10% | 36.20% | 312 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.305 | -0.01 | 44.7% | 0.197 | 9.1% | 89.6% | 88.3 | 8.10% | 39.70% | 345 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Carlos Carrasco (1) is likely the stand out tonight (although Hill would be here without him if not for workload limitations), not necessarily due to his recent work, which has been a bit troubling, though with some positive signs, but because he has the third highest strikeout rate on the slate (26.8%) and is in one of the top strikeout upside spots.
Value Tier Two
Rich Hill (2) should dominate while he’s in there, but that may only be six innings, although seven is possible on 90 or so pitches if he’s as effective as we would expect against the Padres. The problem is that he costs $12.2K on DraftKings, where you may have to drop him a tier.
Jon Gray is exhibiting some concerning traits, but the upside still appears to be in there. Much below $9K would just seem too cheap in a favorable park at the right time. There aren’t many bats he needs to be concerned with here. Realize though that after Carrasco, there’s very little separation between the rest of these arms.
Value Tier Three
Jameson Taillon is a quality pitcher, who has been adding a few more strikeouts. While he’s still doing this with a below average SwStr% (I’m really starting to wonder about his foul ball rate) it’s not completely out of line. One important thing to note may be his splits in this spot. He has a 21.4 K-BB% vs RHP, but with fewer ground balls (45.3% vs 54.9%).
Reynaldo Lopez is a highly touted arm with some upside, making his American League debut in a spot where he can succeed against Kansas City at a low cost.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Nick Pivetta struggles to support his K% and allows too much hard contact in the air in a small park. These are flaws, but he has a chance against an offense that’s been striking out a ton and costs very little (just $5.5K on FanDuel) if you want to run a lineup full of expensive bats.
Marcus Stroman could be higher, but gets a $10.9K price tag on DraftKings. Bump him up a bit for much less on FanDuel. While he’s continuing to generate tons of ground balls with enough strikeouts, it’s the improved contact authority that really catches the eye, though it’s probably gone by unnoticed because his BABIP has actually increased. He may not run up the strikeouts (and you need that for his DK cost), but should be stifling contact tonight.
Eduardo Rodriguez has retained his strikeout rate since returning from the DL and the Yankees aren’t very good against LHP. There are negatives discussed above as well, but he costs just $6.2K on DraftKings. He’s more borderline for $1.5K more on FanDuel.
Charlie Morton seems to have found his happy medium. He was throwing 95 mph before going on the DL. Since returning, he’s only at 94 mph, but has retained his strikeout rate and dominated contact. I’m not sure I’ve ever even seen a stretch like this for more than a month. It could be a challenge to retain that dominance in Texas tonight though. Check temperatures and humidity. If it’s not too balmy in Texas, I might even bump him.
Jaime Garcia is probably not going to have a lot of strikeout upside here and I probably wouldn’t use him on FanDuel, but contact management has been strong enough that he could work out as an SP2 for $5.7K on DraftKings. He keeps the ball on the ground and the Red Sox don’t hit a lot of HRs.
Jimmy Nelson is now the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and just $100 short of $10K on DraftKings. He now appears to only have one major flaw in his game and that’s the amount of hard contact he still allows to LHBs, though at least he’s now keeping them on the ground at an elite rate. A guy like Joey Votto could still pose a problem here. I’m probably still a bit lower on him than I should be, but I have years of frustration with him that I’m continuously working on.
Jacob Faria struck out all the minor league batters than had tremendous major league peripherals for his first month, before not striking out many batters, but now more again recently. He’s catching Cleveland at a great time, but they have some new found LH power after the Bruce trade.
Danny Duffy has struck out a few more batters of late, which he sorely needs because contact management has been awful. That may work here because the White Sox have been awful at contact as well. I’d waver on using him on a one pitcher site today, believing there are many better options.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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