Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, July 15th
If you want the long introduction, look for yesterday’s article. Lots of fun stuff and updates in there. This one is shorter because I just found out there were 13 night games on Saturday. Who was expecting that? The bad news is one of the afternoon games costs us Chris Sale and Luis Severino. What are the odds? That’s okay. We’ve got a lot of big arms behind them tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.1 | 3.56 | 5.85 | 51.2% | 1.02 | 3.55 | 3.33 | MIL | 95 | 98 | 86 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -0.7 | 4.72 | 5.96 | 46.6% | 0.91 | 4.84 | 5.04 | ANA | 97 | 90 | 58 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.8 | 3.5 | 5.82 | 56.2% | 0.94 | 3.26 | 3.07 | MIA | 89 | 102 | 106 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 7 | 3 | 6.93 | 40.1% | 1.13 | 3.12 | 2.26 | NYY | 103 | 91 | 74 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.5 | 4.01 | 6.38 | 49.0% | 1.06 | 3.94 | 4.19 | KAN | 86 | 86 | 66 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0 | 3.29 | 6.75 | 43.9% | 0.93 | 3.31 | 2.39 | OAK | 108 | 102 | 65 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.8 | 4 | 6.06 | 38.6% | 1.06 | 4.05 | 3.43 | TEX | 82 | 77 | 69 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.2 | 4.86 | 5.53 | 39.4% | 0.98 | 4.59 | 4.85 | SEA | 96 | 95 | 85 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.8 | 4.47 | 6.27 | 42.5% | 0.94 | 4.45 | 4.73 | HOU | 123 | 131 | 179 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 6.6 | 4.19 | 6.13 | 51.1% | 0.98 | 4.47 | 4.78 | CHW | 95 | 87 | 40 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.8 | 4.34 | 5.39 | 49.4% | 0.98 | 4.88 | 4.96 | DET | 114 | 110 | 69 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.2 | 3.59 | 6.38 | 53.4% | 1.02 | 3.88 | 5.28 | BAL | 94 | 94 | 139 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -3.2 | 3.78 | 5.73 | 52.3% | 0.97 | 3.59 | 3.68 | STL | 89 | 98 | 115 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 1.2 | 4.29 | 5.76 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 4.28 | 5.56 | TAM | 98 | 113 | 53 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.8 | 4.34 | 5.48 | 50.2% | 0.91 | 3.98 | 4.13 | SFO | 86 | 79 | 119 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.3 | 4.3 | 5.77 | 50.1% | 1.02 | 4.07 | 2.57 | PHI | 73 | 83 | 115 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -5.8 | 4.24 | 5.43 | 42.4% | 0.94 | 4.29 | 2.78 | MIN | 90 | 99 | 76 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.1 | 4.96 | 5.23 | 43.1% | 0.94 | 5.11 | 4.37 | LOS | 99 | 108 | 118 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -3.5 | 4.46 | 5.44 | 44.5% | 0.97 | 4.56 | 4.26 | PIT | 93 | 89 | 142 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.4 | 3.57 | 5.75 | 56.9% | 1.02 | 2.82 | 2.97 | WAS | 101 | 110 | 100 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.1 | 3.64 | 5.54 | 49.5% | 1.13 | 3.41 | 2.54 | BOS | 95 | 94 | 47 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -0.9 | 3.2 | 6.76 | 41.2% | 0.91 | 3.6 | SDG | 87 | 69 | 72 | |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.1 | 2.84 | 6.79 | 35.7% | 1.02 | 3.5 | 2.43 | CIN | 102 | 100 | 69 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.8 | 4.15 | 6.38 | 49.2% | 0.98 | 4.18 | 4.43 | TOR | 95 | 92 | 125 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.5 | 4.35 | 5.59 | 0.39 | 1 | 4.58 | 4.49 | ARI | 79 | 103 | 57 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.3 | 4.06 | 5.49 | 0.512 | 1 | 4.15 | 3.13 | ATL | 90 | 103 | 133 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -12.2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 0.511 | 0.93 | 4.9 | 5.5 | CLE | 103 | 105 | 67 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.4 | 4.76 | 5.93 | 0.427 | 0.91 | 4.87 | 4.64 | COL | 79 | 76 | 76 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | -4.2 | 4.72 | 5.87 | 0.569 | 0.91 | 4.3 | 5.01 | NYM | 94 | 103 | 86 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -4.6 | 4.32 | 5.59 | 0.492 | 1.02 | 4.09 | 5.33 | CHC | 89 | 107 | 103 |
Aaron Nola has been on fire. He’s gone at least seven innings in four straight starts with a 30.1 K% and 7.2 Hard-Soft%. Interestingly, I can’t find any changes in his pitch mix, but he looks to be throwing more first pitch strikes then going out of the zone and getting more chases after being ahead. The Brewers have a lot of power (20 HR/FB at home and vs RHP), but have a lot of swing and miss in their game (26.2 K% at home, 24.8 K% vs RHP, 32.7 K% last seven days of play).
Alex Wood has the fifth highest K-BB (23.9%) and second highest ground ball rate (63.5%) among all pitchers with at least 80 innings. He has an 84.8 mph aEV with the lowest rate of barrels (2.1% of BBEs) and 95+ mph EV (26.2%) on the board. They’ve allowed him a bit of extra time since his last start on July 5th. Perhaps that means he’ll be allowed a longer leash, though they pulled him after seven shutout innings with 10 Ks on just 85 pitches last time out. The Marlins are not a quality home offense and despite their 16.3 HR/FB vs LHP, they have just a 3.6 Hard-Soft%.
Corey Kluber has at least eight strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 starts and just had a string of five straight starts with at least seven innings snapped. His 49.3 GB% is also a career high this year. He’s a legitimate Cy Young contender in a year we thought Chris Sale might run away with the award. His 27.2 K-BB% is third best in baseball. Oakland has a 15 HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but it’s a significant park upgrade for him against an offense that strikes out a quarter of the time.
Danny Duffy allowed three HRs against the Dodgers in his second start back from the DL, but perhaps more noticeable is that he went seven innings, striking out nine. He’s had a 12.8 SwStr% in each of his two starts since returning without needing a bump in velocity because his chase rate has been around 40%. He’s in a great spot against a poor Texas offense too, both on the road (27.3 K%) and vs LHP (27 K%).
Felix Hernandez struck out a season high eight A’s in six shutout innings in his last start. A 25.0 HR/FB on a board high 10.8% Barrels/BBE are significant issues, especially considering that 10 of his 14 walks on the season have come in his last three starts. However, he’s had a SwStr rate above 9% in six of nine starts and has otherwise managed contact fairly well aside from those barrels. He’s also in a very nice spot at home against a RH centric lineup (15.8 K-BB% vs RHP) that’s also the coldest in baseball over the last seven days of play (21.8 K-BB%, 5.0 HR/FB).
Jake Arrieta continues to struggle to find his mark, but the contact management has been pretty strong over his last three starts (54 GB%, -12 Hard-Soft%). The unfortunate thing is that his strikeout rate has cratered with a SwStr rate below 8% in each of his last four starts. Perhaps the Orioles (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP) can help with that.
Jameson Taillon struck out a season high nine Phillies in his last start with an 11+ SwStr% for the second time in three starts. He’s been a superb contact manager with a 52 GB%, 2.7 Hard-Soft% and the lowest aEV on the board (84.3 mph). Although he’s only even gone one out beyond six innings once in five starts since returning, he’s not allowed a run in three of those starts and has eclipsed 100 pitches in each of his last three. The Cardinals are not an offense to fear in a negative run environment that greatly suppresses RH power.
Jimmy Nelson has a 29.7 K-BB% vs LHBs since May 28th and has generated a 61.6 GB% and -4.5 Hard-Soft% to RHBs over that span. Now LHBs still have a 20.6 Hard-Soft% over that span, but he’s facing the Phillies (16.7 K-BB% on the road, 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP).
Luis Castillo has a 20.4 K-BB% through four starts and a 26.3 K-BB% through his last three. His last two starts have been in Colorado and Arizona, so despite being in a difficult spot hosting Washington today, he’s no stranger to tough spots. It also gives him a bit of an excuse for an 87.9 mph aEV and 37.9% 95+ mph EV so far. He also has a 56.9 GB% despite a 39 GB% in nearly 100 AA innings.
Max Scherzer does not need my endorsement. Just look towards the top of all of the leaderboards for pretty much all non-GB categories for pitchers and that’s where you’ll generally find him. The Reds do have some power and that’s been an Achilles heel for him, but he’s allowed just three HRs over his last eight starts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.223 – 71.7% – 10.6) is coming off two quality starts (14.1 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 12 K – 47 BF), so perhaps he’s finally healthy. He’s in a nice spot against an impatient and power deficient lineup in Kansas City, but I’m not sure I’m ready to start paying $9K for him again yet.
Mike Foltynewicz (.294 – 79.8% – 14.3) has a few unearned runs (four), but I’m having difficulty buying that high strand rate with an average strikeout rate. He still has significant issues against LHBs (.371 wOBA).
Lance Lynn (.220 – 80% – 17.9) faces a low power offense in a favorable park, but there’s not a lot of strikeout upside here. The cost is not terrible though.
Alex Cobb (.282 – 72.6% – 9.9) also has five unearned runs (9.4% of his season total).
Ervin Santana (.217 – 83.6% – 12.9) vindicated us when he allowed the only run for the NL in the All-Star game. Regression has begun!
Jose Urena (.245 – 78.2% – 10.8)
Paul Blackburn (.227 – 95.2% – 5.9) has a 3.8 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Madison Bumgarner is in a nice spot in San Diego for his return (26.2 K% vs LHP). In fact, it’s more than nice. It might be the best matchup on the board. Further reason for optimism is six shutout innings, striking out eight of 21 batters in his most recent rehab start. However, that was in high A ball. He allowed four HRs in his previous rehab start, also at high A and struck out just one of 20 in his lone rehab start above that level. All of this with a potential workload limitation at a high cost are cause for concern.
JC Ramirez probably deserves better than his strikeout rate over the last month and could realize a few additional Ks against the Rays (24.6 K% vs RHP), but he walked five in his last start and has allowed three HRs in start twice this year. The Rays make up for in power what they lack in contact skills.
Jhoulys Chacin is in a nice spot against the Giants (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but they don’t strike out a lot and have been improving recently. He has been pretty exceptional with a 1.68 ERA at home, though his 3.59 FIP and 4.06 xFIP with a 13.7 K-BB% paint a more average picture. Not that the Padres wouldn’t take that, but there’s little value there for more than $7.5K.
Patrick Corbin has become sort of a Robbie Ray-lite. He’s missing a lot of bats, but his 88.7 mph aEV is highest on the board. While his 50.9 GB% is an asset here, the Braves are not necessarily a favorable matchup here. They don’t strike out much (14.2% over the last week) and you might be able to call this park in Atlanta something of an Arizona-lite.
Joe Musgrove has been missing more bats recently, but has also allowed six HRs with a 50 Hard% over his last three starts.
Tyler Chatwood can get you some ground balls, but his 12.8 BB% prevents his double digit SwStr% from turning into an above average strikeout rate.
Derek Holland finally has that ERA up over five, where we expected it to end up all along.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.9% | 6.5% | Road | 22.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 8.2% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.7% | 6.3% | Road | 13.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.4% | 3.7% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.1% | 7.7% | Road | 27.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 10.2% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 4.8% | Home | 29.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 3.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.3% | Road | 22.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.1% | 6.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 6.2% | Road | 26.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 6.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.0% | Home | 21.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 4.0% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.1% | Home | 18.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.6% | Road | 19.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.3% | Road | 18.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 13.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.8% | 11.2% | Road | 20.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 7.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.0% | 8.1% | Road | 21.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 13.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.7% | Home | 19.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.3% | Home | 18.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 11.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.5% | Home | 20.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 8.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.4% | 9.0% | Home | 21.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 4.1% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.5% | Home | 22.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.0% | 8.0% | Home | 15.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 4.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.5% | Road | 24.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 4.4% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.2% | Home | 37.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 32.9% | 6.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.4% | Road | 25.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 3.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.8% | 5.3% | Road | 27.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.5% | 5.7% | Road | 32.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 4.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.1% | Home | 18.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 2.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.1% | Home | 20.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 8.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.6% | Road | 18.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 8.1% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 7.7% | 3.9% | Home | 16.7% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.9% | Home | 17.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 6.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.3% | 11.4% | Road | 19.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 12.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.3% | Home | 21.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 13.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.5% | RH | 24.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 32.7% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 7.8% | LH | 19.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.0% | 9.7% | LH | 23.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 9.6% |
| Royals | Home | 19.0% | 6.6% | LH | 19.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 3.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.3% | 9.4% | RH | 25.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.3% | 8.2% | LH | 27.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 13.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.5% | LH | 18.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 15.6% | 6.3% |
| Astros | Home | 16.5% | 7.7% | RH | 17.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 13.2% | 12.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.5% | 7.9% | RH | 22.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.1% | 6.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.6% | 8.8% | LH | 20.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 10.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 8.5% | RH | 21.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.8% |
| Rays | Road | 25.7% | 8.8% | RH | 24.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 8.2% | RH | 19.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.0% | 7.3% | RH | 23.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Road | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 13.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.5% | 10.6% | RH | 23.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.6% | 9.5% | RH | 18.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.5% | 11.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.2% | 8.9% | RH | 19.3% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 12.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.5% | 9.5% | RH | 18.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.9% |
| Padres | Home | 25.0% | 8.7% | LH | 26.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.6% | 7.0% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | RH | 20.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 16.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.0% | RH | 22.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 7.3% | LH | 19.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.2% | 7.5% |
| Indians | Road | 18.4% | 9.5% | RH | 19.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 7.6% | RH | 22.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 31.0% | 9.7% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 19.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.4% | 9.6% | LH | 20.7% | 12.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.2% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 2017 | 30.2% | 11.9% | 6.3% | Road | 29.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 36.5% | 6.3% | 15.3% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 11.8% | 20.9% | 2017 | 36.8% | 9.9% | 22.7% | Road | 33.5% | 12.4% | 20.1% | L14 Days | 25.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 2017 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | Road | 26.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 0.0% | -15.4% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 29.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | Home | 32.2% | 17.1% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 2017 | 37.3% | 10.6% | 23.6% | Road | 30.9% | 12.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 6.7% | 26.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.7% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 2017 | 30.6% | 11.4% | 9.3% | Road | 30.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 2017 | 28.5% | 7.6% | 12.2% | Home | 36.4% | 9.7% | 20.1% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 2017 | 38.3% | 17.1% | 17.6% | Home | 33.6% | 10.1% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 2017 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 6.8% | Road | 28.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.6% | 17.2% | 11.9% | 2017 | 28.7% | 25.0% | 10.2% | Road | 25.4% | 18.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 12.2% | 17.6% | Road | 34.4% | 24.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.0% | 11.3% | 1.7% | 2017 | 29.2% | 15.4% | 7.5% | Road | 29.0% | 15.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.3% | -12.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 2017 | 28.0% | 11.4% | 2.7% | Home | 31.9% | 11.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.4% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 2017 | 38.6% | 17.2% | 22.8% | Home | 32.4% | 18.8% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 2017 | 29.9% | 15.9% | 8.6% | Home | 28.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 7.1% | -2.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 2017 | 31.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | Home | 31.8% | 13.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 34.3% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 2017 | 34.1% | 17.9% | 17.3% | Home | 32.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.6% | 10.8% | 11.5% | Home | 31.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 2017 | 29.9% | 17.9% | 9.8% | Road | 38.4% | 22.6% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 31.0% | 23.8% | 12.0% | 2017 | 31.0% | 23.8% | 12.0% | Home | 25.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 16.7% | 6.6% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.1% | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2017 | 30.7% | 14.8% | 10.7% | Road | 30.2% | 8.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 11.8% | 27.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2017 | 34.2% | 7.1% | 15.2% | Road | 33.0% | 13.4% | 14.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 2017 | 26.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | Road | 31.3% | 12.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 2017 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 10.8% | Home | 33.5% | 8.6% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 12.0% | 15.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.5% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 2017 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 12.5% | Home | 30.4% | 8.9% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.5% | 16.6% | 19.2% | 2017 | 33.6% | 16.8% | 16.0% | Road | 34.7% | 20.4% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 12.5% | -2.2% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 2017 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | Home | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 35.0% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 2017 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 9.1% | Home | 38.8% | 14.9% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 13.3% | 14.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.5% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.6% | 21.2% | 6.0% | Road | 25.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 2017 | 33.2% | 18.8% | 13.9% | Home | 30.6% | 16.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 33.3% | 15.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Home | 37.7% | 19.8% | 17.9% | RH | 34.0% | 20.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 35.9% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| Angels | Home | 28.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | RH | 30.7% | 12.9% | 11.3% | L7Days | 29.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.7% | 15.3% | 9.8% | LH | 27.7% | 16.3% | 3.6% | L7Days | 33.0% | 13.3% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.5% | 12.7% | 13.2% | LH | 28.9% | 13.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% |
| Royals | Home | 31.7% | 9.8% | 12.3% | LH | 30.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 10.7% | 15.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.6% | 15.4% | 17.1% | RH | 34.1% | 15.0% | 17.4% | L7Days | 27.0% | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.7% | 16.2% | 9.2% | LH | 31.1% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 32.3% | 8.3% | 18.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.3% | 10.6% | 14.6% | LH | 30.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.4% | 7.7% | 16.2% |
| Astros | Home | 30.7% | 15.8% | 12.5% | RH | 33.3% | 16.2% | 15.8% | L7Days | 31.8% | 23.3% | 19.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.8% | 12.8% | 7.6% | RH | 30.9% | 13.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 37.7% | 5.0% | 16.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 46.9% | 14.0% | 33.4% | LH | 42.0% | 17.0% | 26.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 5.9% | 15.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 29.7% | 15.9% | 8.8% | RH | 30.9% | 15.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 23.1% | 17.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 13.9% | 15.3% | RH | 32.1% | 14.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.5% | 19.2% | 11.7% |
| Rays | Road | 34.5% | 17.0% | 15.3% | RH | 36.9% | 18.3% | 19.5% | L7Days | 34.3% | 7.4% | 13.7% |
| Giants | Road | 31.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | RH | 28.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 29.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | RH | 30.3% | 11.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 34.8% | 23.5% |
| Twins | Road | 29.9% | 12.3% | 11.8% | RH | 32.9% | 13.1% | 16.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.5% | -5.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 14.5% | 17.4% | RH | 35.3% | 15.5% | 19.9% | L7Days | 51.3% | 24.2% | 39.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | RH | 30.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 38.9% | 17.2% | 24.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.0% | 15.0% | 12.6% | RH | 31.7% | 14.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 32.9% | 10.0% | 24.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.1% | 9.0% | 19.7% | RH | 35.4% | 10.9% | 17.3% | L7Days | 30.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% |
| Padres | Home | 28.2% | 12.2% | 6.1% | LH | 30.1% | 11.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Reds | Home | 28.6% | 16.0% | 7.2% | RH | 29.9% | 14.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.3% | 12.5% | 10.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.7% | 15.1% | 14.0% | RH | 31.1% | 14.9% | 10.6% | L7Days | 37.7% | 16.7% | 4.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.2% | 13.6% | 10.8% | RH | 36.0% | 15.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Braves | Home | 28.9% | 11.4% | 9.3% | LH | 28.3% | 14.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Indians | Road | 35.8% | 12.0% | 19.1% | RH | 33.4% | 11.8% | 16.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 28.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | RH | 29.4% | 12.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 35.8% | 11.5% | 16.4% |
| Mets | Home | 33.9% | 10.6% | 15.2% | RH | 35.4% | 13.1% | 18.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.7% | 14.1% | 8.4% | LH | 28.7% | 17.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 21.4% | 14.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.48 | 28.2% | 9.5% | 2.97 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 15.8% | 6.7% | 2.36 | 13.4% | 5.0% | 2.68 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 30.9% | 13.6% | 2.27 | 30.3% | 15.9% | 1.91 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 35.9% | 16.2% | 2.22 | 34.9% | 16.8% | 2.08 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 13.8% | 7.2% | 1.92 | 18.1% | 6.7% | 2.70 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 33.8% | 15.5% | 2.18 | 40.0% | 17.5% | 2.29 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.8% | 11.9% | 1.66 | 26.0% | 12.8% | 2.03 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.2% | 7.9% | 2.43 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.72 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.8% | 9.3% | 2.02 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 1.71 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.40 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 2.70 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 20.1% | 10.2% | 1.97 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 1.88 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.45 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 2.62 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2.67 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 3.06 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.8% | 9.8% | 1.92 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 1.58 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.5% | 8.4% | 2.44 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.36 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 26.1% | 11.6% | 2.25 | 29.6% | 14.0% | 2.11 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 19.5% | 10.9% | 1.79 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 1.89 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 15.9% | 8.9% | 1.79 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 1.71 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.0% | 9.3% | 2.37 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.27 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.32 | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.32 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.4% | 12.1% | 2.35 | 30.0% | 12.9% | 2.33 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 25.0% | 11.1% | 2.25 | |||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.5% | 16.0% | 2.22 | 36.7% | 16.3% | 2.25 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 18.0% | 9.5% | 1.89 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 1.80 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.45 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 20.8% | 10.7% | 1.94 | 26.0% | 13.6% | 1.91 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.54 | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.54 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 15.9% | 7.7% | 2.06 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 2.06 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.95 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 1.78 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.4% | 7.4% | 2.62 | 16.5% | 7.1% | 2.32 |
Aaron Nola has not had the benefit of a swinging strike rate increase. Over his last four starts, with at least eight strikeouts in each, he had a rate in the 8% to 9% range, but his SwStr has been above 11% in each of his last two starts.
Danny Duffy is the only real outlier on today’s board for the season and there should be confidence that his strikeout rate will rise above league average. His last outing was a nice move in that direction.
Jameson Taillon can’t fully support his K% since returning from the DL, but the good news is that his SwStr% has been up in two of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.59 | 3.84 | 0.25 | 3.59 | 0 | 3.4 | -0.19 | 2.78 | -0.81 | 2.9 | 3.54 | 0.64 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.12 | 0.22 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.75 | 4.77 | 1.02 | 4.64 | 0.89 | 4.12 | 0.37 | 3.99 | 0.24 | 2.52 | 4.86 | 2.34 | 4.74 | 2.22 | 3.57 | 1.05 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.67 | 2.81 | 1.14 | 2.57 | 0.9 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 2.47 | 0.80 | 1.65 | 2.92 | 1.27 | 2.69 | 1.04 | 2.11 | 0.46 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.75 | 2.53 | -0.22 | 2.66 | -0.09 | 2.09 | -0.66 | 1.86 | -0.89 | 2.47 | 2.56 | 0.09 | 2.89 | 0.42 | 2.41 | -0.06 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.51 | 5.13 | 1.62 | 4.98 | 1.47 | 4.61 | 1.1 | 4.23 | 0.72 | 4.34 | 4.19 | -0.15 | 4.15 | -0.19 | 3.42 | -0.92 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.8 | 2.86 | 0.06 | 2.65 | -0.15 | 2.43 | -0.37 | 2.22 | -0.58 | 1.02 | 2.07 | 1.05 | 1.83 | 0.81 | 1.15 | 0.13 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.76 | 4.61 | 0.85 | 4.66 | 0.9 | 3.76 | 0 | 4.48 | 0.72 | 4.97 | 3.43 | -1.54 | 3.64 | -1.33 | 4.88 | -0.09 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 5.01 | 4.86 | -0.15 | 5.01 | 0 | 5.55 | 0.54 | 6.41 | 1.40 | 7.88 | 4.58 | -3.3 | 4.5 | -3.38 | 5.27 | -2.61 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.99 | 4.75 | 1.76 | 4.79 | 1.8 | 4.68 | 1.69 | 3.37 | 0.38 | 5.34 | 4.21 | -1.13 | 4.43 | -0.91 | 5.19 | -0.15 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.44 | 4.09 | -0.35 | 3.83 | -0.61 | 5.1 | 0.66 | 3.50 | -0.94 | 4.13 | 4.46 | 0.33 | 4.16 | 0.03 | 5.23 | 1.1 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.56 | 4.95 | -0.61 | 4.9 | -0.66 | 4.68 | -0.88 | 5.31 | -0.25 | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.38 | 4.74 | -0.42 | 4.33 | -0.83 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.35 | 4.07 | -0.28 | 3.98 | -0.37 | 4.17 | -0.18 | 4.30 | -0.05 | 4.13 | 4.82 | 0.69 | 4.56 | 0.43 | 4.49 | 0.36 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 2.73 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 3.71 | 0.98 | 3.5 | 0.77 | 3.68 | 0.95 | 1.98 | 3.78 | 1.8 | 3.43 | 1.45 | 2.6 | 0.62 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.46 | 4.41 | -0.05 | 4.31 | -0.15 | 4.74 | 0.28 | 4.11 | -0.35 | 4.73 | 4.71 | -0.02 | 4.69 | -0.04 | 5.16 | 0.43 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.32 | 4.28 | -0.04 | 4.17 | -0.15 | 4.41 | 0.09 | 4.67 | 0.35 | 2.01 | 4.16 | 2.15 | 4.14 | 2.13 | 4.49 | 2.48 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.3 | 3.48 | 0.18 | 3.3 | 0 | 3.17 | -0.13 | 3.28 | -0.02 | 3.03 | 3.09 | 0.06 | 2.88 | -0.15 | 3.07 | 0.04 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 6.04 | 4.46 | -1.58 | 4.45 | -1.59 | 5.07 | -0.97 | 7.05 | 1.01 | 9.15 | 3.99 | -5.16 | 3.88 | -5.27 | 5.94 | -3.21 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.54 | 5.1 | 1.56 | 5.45 | 1.91 | 4.97 | 1.43 | 5.35 | 1.81 | 2.91 | 4.68 | 1.77 | 5.01 | 2.1 | 4.06 | 1.15 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.61 | 4.46 | 0.85 | 4.6 | 0.99 | 5.19 | 1.58 | 4.99 | 1.38 | 5.08 | 4.6 | -0.48 | 4.94 | -0.14 | 5.7 | 0.62 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.13 | 3.57 | 0.44 | 3.47 | 0.34 | 4.67 | 1.54 | 4.00 | 0.87 | 3.13 | 3.57 | 0.44 | 3.47 | 0.34 | 4.67 | 1.54 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.54 | 3.25 | -0.29 | 3.05 | -0.49 | 3.16 | -0.38 | 2.88 | -0.66 | 4.7 | 3.26 | -1.44 | 3.15 | -1.55 | 3.02 | -1.68 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3 | 3.46 | 0.46 | 3.48 | 0.48 | 2.59 | -0.41 | 2.77 | -0.23 | |||||||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.1 | 2.68 | 0.58 | 3.07 | 0.97 | 2.61 | 0.51 | 1.78 | -0.32 | 1.64 | 2.44 | 0.8 | 2.82 | 1.18 | 2.17 | 0.53 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.19 | 4.31 | 1.12 | 4.11 | 0.92 | 3.26 | 0.07 | 3.00 | -0.19 | 2.72 | 4.5 | 1.78 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 3.73 | 1.01 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.77 | 4.54 | 0.77 | 4.55 | 0.78 | 4.63 | 0.86 | 5.62 | 1.85 | 4.45 | 5.01 | 0.56 | 5.52 | 1.07 | 5.44 | 0.99 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.71 | 4.07 | -0.64 | 3.86 | -0.85 | 4.24 | -0.47 | 5.57 | 0.86 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 0.16 | 2.83 | -0.24 | 2.5 | -0.57 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.66 | 5.49 | 4.83 | 5.44 | 4.78 | 4.17 | 3.51 | 5.47 | 4.81 | 0.66 | 5.5 | 4.84 | 5.44 | 4.78 | 4.17 | 3.51 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 4.59 | 4.93 | 0.34 | 4.77 | 0.18 | 4.41 | -0.18 | 7.13 | 2.54 | 4.59 | 4.93 | 0.34 | 4.77 | 0.18 | 4.41 | -0.18 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.42 | 4.89 | 0.47 | 4.29 | -0.13 | 4.89 | 0.47 | 3.86 | -0.56 | 4.55 | 5.72 | 1.17 | 5.12 | 0.57 | 5.17 | 0.62 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 4.97 | 4.91 | -0.06 | 4.52 | -0.45 | 5.04 | 0.07 | 5.33 | 0.36 | 9.24 | 5.44 | -3.8 | 5.37 | -3.87 | 6.62 | -2.62 |
Alex Wood has a .254 BABIP, 50 points below his career rate, but his contact management has been exceptional in front of a quality defense. He’s stranding 80.6% of runners and I’m not sure we can argue too much with that either considering the performance. The 5.1 HR/FB may be where we should most take umbrage. Something around two and a half seems right. I think DRA nails it here.
Danny Duffy has a 7.6 HR/FB, but the good news is that his K% should rise along with his HR rate.
Jameson Taillon has an 83.8 LOB%, but even though his BABIP profile does not look strong, he’s managed contact well enough that I’d be skeptical of his current .322 mark remaining that high.
Max Scherzer has an exceptional BABIP profile, but .226 might be pushing it. I have no issue with his 80.4% strand rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.299 | 0.290 | -0.009 | 49.3% | 0.204 | 6.0% | 84.9% | 85.9 | 4.50% | 30.60% | 222 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.289 | 0.282 | -0.007 | 45.4% | 0.216 | 5.8% | 91.9% | 87.6 | 5.10% | 34.30% | 370 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.279 | 0.254 | -0.025 | 63.5% | 0.159 | 12.8% | 82.5% | 84.8 | 2.10% | 26.20% | 191 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.306 | 0.292 | -0.014 | 36.3% | 0.218 | 11.6% | 77.3% | 86.8 | 6.20% | 30.50% | 292 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.287 | 0.223 | -0.064 | 51.3% | 0.178 | 10.6% | 90.3% | 87.1 | 3.30% | 33.30% | 153 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.305 | 0.288 | -0.017 | 49.3% | 0.181 | 11.4% | 80.3% | 86.8 | 5.10% | 32.40% | 216 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.313 | 0.015 | 40.8% | 0.197 | 10.9% | 85.8% | 86.9 | 5.40% | 28.30% | 240 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 39.4% | 0.213 | 9.0% | 88.0% | 88.1 | 9.10% | 41.10% | 285 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.295 | 0.217 | -0.078 | 44.3% | 0.152 | 12.9% | 89.1% | 85.6 | 4.30% | 31.40% | 350 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.277 | 0.333 | 0.056 | 47.1% | 0.245 | 4.5% | 91.0% | 86.6 | 10.80% | 32.50% | 157 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.306 | 0.328 | 0.022 | 44.9% | 0.19 | 8.1% | 87.5% | 87 | 7.10% | 33.30% | 210 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.013 | 45.7% | 0.23 | 7.7% | 84.2% | 86.8 | 5.50% | 32.00% | 291 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.302 | 0.322 | 0.02 | 52.0% | 0.232 | 9.1% | 89.5% | 84.3 | 5.50% | 29.70% | 182 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.284 | 0.294 | 0.01 | 48.6% | 0.198 | 7.1% | 86.1% | 87.8 | 6.60% | 35.40% | 316 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.303 | 0.289 | -0.014 | 53.5% | 0.168 | 13.6% | 89.4% | 86.2 | 6.30% | 29.60% | 301 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.298 | 0.337 | 0.039 | 49.8% | 0.205 | 4.5% | 85.5% | 85.4 | 4.30% | 32.50% | 302 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.294 | 0.330 | 0.036 | 41.7% | 0.215 | 8.3% | 86.7% | 86.9 | 6.00% | 33.60% | 232 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.290 | 0.245 | -0.045 | 39.5% | 0.183 | 10.8% | 88.0% | 85.4 | 8.90% | 29.00% | 269 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.297 | 0.220 | -0.077 | 42.1% | 0.179 | 9.8% | 81.5% | 86.5 | 7.70% | 30.30% | 284 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.290 | 0.321 | 0.031 | 56.9% | 0.069 | 9.5% | 82.3% | 87.9 | 5.20% | 37.90% | 58 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.292 | 0.297 | 0.005 | 52.4% | 0.182 | 8.6% | 85.3% | 87.1 | 6.10% | 35.40% | 280 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.318 | 0.299 | -0.019 | 46.2% | 0.179 | 10.7% | 85.9% | 86.7 | 3.80% | 32.90% | 79 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.295 | 0.226 | -0.069 | 38.7% | 0.146 | 14.1% | 78.9% | 85.6 | 5.40% | 29.90% | 278 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.307 | 0.277 | -0.03 | 49.3% | 0.205 | 12.3% | 88.2% | 85.7 | 4.20% | 27.10% | 354 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.294 | 0.002 | 38.0% | 0.244 | 6.7% | 86.0% | 86.6 | 6.60% | 32.80% | 287 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.290 | 0.346 | 0.056 | 50.9% | 0.201 | 11.6% | 87.0% | 88.7 | 7.60% | 37.20% | 331 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.294 | 0.227 | -0.067 | 51.1% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 87.9% | 87.4 | 2.20% | 33.30% | 45 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.317 | 0.321 | 0.004 | 42.6% | 0.241 | 2.8% | 89.1% | 86.2 | 6.40% | 38.20% | 110 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 56.4% | 0.21 | 4.5% | 87.9% | 84.7 | 5.00% | 29.20% | 301 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.313 | 0.341 | 0.028 | 53.2% | 0.219 | 8.7% | 91.0% | 87.9 | 5.70% | 36.40% | 280 |
Felix Hernandez has a less than normal and a very good BABIP profile. That’s going to have to improve if he wants his BABIP to.
Jimmy Nelson is a difficult one to figure out. LHBs are still making good contact and he doesn’t generate many popups, but he’s smothering RH contact.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The tier two guys are all top tier guys on most days. This is an extremely strong top of the board. In fact, I also perceive a generous gap between tiers two and three today.
Value Tier One
Luis Castillo has come out of nowhere to dominate major league hitters in difficult spots in his first month of major league play. Nobody expected this and it probably won’t continue at this pace, but we’re not going to argue with his current upside at a low cost still. His DraftKings cost remains below $7K, which almost makes him a necessity in combination with the $10K+ arms.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber is everything you want in a daily fantasy pitcher in a high upside spot a bit cheaper than Scherzer.
Max Scherzer is the best pitcher in baseball this year, but also the most expensive one in a matchup with slightly less upside than Kluber’s spot in Oakland.
Alex Wood with a price tag well over $10K on DraftKings and potential workload issues needs to be considered a bit more carefully now. He’s still a top guy pitch for pitch and costs $1.9K less on FanDuel, the largest gap in that direction today.
Aaron Nola has been pitching deep into games and running up his strikeouts in recent starts. He’s in a dangerous spot in Milwaukee, but also a very high upside one for a cost of $8.8K on either site.
Value Tier Three
Danny Duffy costs right around the $8K mark in a better than most people realize spot. The Texas offense is not good and they strike out a ton, especially against LHP. He’s been missing plenty of bats since returning from the DL.
Jimmy Nelson should continue his breakout against the Phillies tonight. It’s a good, rather than great spot in a difficult park against an offense with a 34.8 HR/FB over the last week of play. (Where did that come from?) I still have difficulty placing him with the pitchers above, but I could be overly skeptical here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jameson Taillon isn’t a guy with a ton of upside, but he’s managing contact well and may be beginning to miss more bats. He costs around $8.5K in neutral to slightly favorable matchup against the Cardinals.
Felix Hernandez is coming off his best start of the season and while we’re not jumping to conclusions based off of that one starts, he’s in one of the top spots on the board tonight, hosting the White Sox and may be one of the few pitchers in those top run prevention, higher floor expectation spots that we can actually use.
Jake Arrieta is a last minute consideration for me as I wavered placing him here a few times due to the drop in strikeout rate over the last month. In the end, contact management has improved significantly and the Orioles have been so poorly disciplined I reconsidered mostly due to an incredibly low cost on DraftKings, where players could use him with a priced up arm.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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