Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, July 9th
We’re covering the five-game night slate, but listing the larger mid-day slate too on Saturday, the last time we’ll meet before the All-Star break. For DFS players, this is like our holiday break as it’s really the only week all year without any major daily fantasy activity. Have a happy and healthy vacation and come back rested on Friday for a great second half.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.3 | 4.28 | 5.43 | 0.98 | 1 | 4.41 | 4.35 | CIN | 79 | 87 | 79 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.6 | 2.86 | 6.22 | 1.57 | 0.9 | 2.03 | 1.6 | SDG | 92 | 81 | 135 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -2.4 | 4.23 | 5.81 | 1.37 | 1.03 | 4.1 | 4.21 | CLE | 124 | 89 | 114 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.5 | 5.46 | 5.5 | 0.61 | 0.95 | 5.93 | 5.46 | CHC | 110 | 103 | 107 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 9.6 | 3.47 | 6.09 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 3.37 | 4.08 | NYY | 79 | 88 | 97 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 6.2 | 4.33 | 6.06 | 1.57 | 1.04 | 4.24 | 5.21 | SEA | 102 | 113 | 123 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 8.5 | 4.29 | 5.84 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 4.75 | 6.23 | ARI | 103 | 91 | 102 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -4.2 | 3.91 | 6.17 | 1.12 | 1.37 | 4.33 | 4.23 | COL | 105 | 94 | 64 |
| John Lamb | CIN | -2.7 | 4.44 | 5.1 | 1.07 | 1 | 4.18 | 4.26 | FLA | 87 | 93 | 106 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 7.6 | 3.25 | 6.51 | 1.45 | 0.95 | 3.34 | 4.83 | PIT | 112 | 107 | 104 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -12.4 | 4.5 | 5.46 | 1.81 | 1.01 | 4.51 | 5.21 | HOU | 97 | 102 | 86 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.4 | 3.66 | 5.75 | 1.72 | 1.01 | 3.15 | 1.79 | OAK | 94 | 85 | 69 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | -5 | 4.47 | 5.11 | 1.21 | 0.87 | 4.6 | 5.67 | WAS | 99 | 93 | 113 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.3 | 4.01 | 4.85 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 3.32 | LOS | 97 | 96 | 124 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | -3 | 4.4 | 5.72 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 5.07 | 4.96 | BOS | 122 | 114 | 158 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.3 | 2.81 | 6.82 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 2.93 | 2.98 | NYM | 105 | 97 | 155 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 2.3 | 4.39 | 5.37 | 0.8 | 1.04 | 5.25 | 5.06 | BAL | 112 | 114 | 99 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 11.1 | 5.03 | 5.63 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 5.32 | 7.06 | MIN | 88 | 88 | 143 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.9 | 3.75 | 6.24 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 3.7 | 3.74 | TAM | 106 | 89 | 82 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | -5.8 | 4.04 | 5.68 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 3.76 | 4.82 | TEX | 97 | 91 | 103 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.3 | 3.98 | 5.37 | 1.3 | 0.89 | 3.9 | 2.83 | SFO | 110 | 103 | 92 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.6 | 3.22 | 5.84 | 3.18 | 1.37 | 2.55 | 3.4 | PHI | 90 | 61 | 114 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -4 | 4.31 | 5.94 | 1.63 | 1.04 | 4.59 | 5.42 | KAN | 106 | 104 | 64 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -5.2 | 4.49 | 5.55 | 1.58 | 1.04 | 4.73 | 4.83 | ANA | 103 | 99 | 141 |
Brandon McCarthy struck out eight of 18 Rockies, getting 11 swings and misses in 72 pitches with velocity in line with 2015 (93.3 mph). Six of nine batted balls were on the ground. With just two balls hit hard, aside from the walk and single line drive, what more can you ask for from a guy returning from Tommy John? He’s in a second consecutive great spot tonight, perhaps the best on the night slate against a San Diego offense that, while improved, still has 17.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Jon Lester was bombed in his last start by the Mets (three HRs and just 14 total batters before being removed after eight runs) and while he hadn’t been pitching poorly previous, he’s now allowed seven of his 14 HRs in his last four starts. His 18.8 K-BB% is now a bit below the last two seasons with his ERA estimators the highest they’ve been in three years. The Pirates are a good offense at home vs LHP. They don’t hit a lot of HRs at home as an offense that leans heavily RH in a park that greatly suppresses RHP, but they do hit the ball hard 34.3% of the time vs LHP, despite a 24.2 K% that should benefit Lester too.
Luis Perdomo has some solid peripherals over the last month. One outing wasn’t a start, but lasted 5.2 innings in Colorado in which he struck out seven. In 28.2 innings, he’s struck out 29 of 133 batters with a 15.8 K-BB% and 65.3 GB%. He’s basically almost been a right handed Dallas Keuchel from last year. If you’re considering why his results have been less than stellar, he’s pitched in Colorado, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Arizona, pretty much most of the most difficult environments for a pitcher in baseball. He faces the Dodgers tonight (again on the road), but in a better spot tonight in a negative run environment. While the peripherals aren’t bad, this offense has been below average all season and likely grade out as one of tonight’s top matchups.
Max Scherzer should probably take up the least space today. There are five pitchers in baseball with a strikeout rate above 30%. One is one the DL, three pitched yesterday, and then there’s Scherzer. His 26.0 K-BB% is fourth in the majors, his 15.2 SwStr% is second. He’s struck out at least six in all but one start and 10 or more in five of his last seven. He’s allowed 21 HRs, so there might be a couple of runs against on offense with power (15.2 HR/FB at home), but there isn’t much that worries us with pitchers who exceed a 30 K%.
Tyler Anderson struggled a bit more against a team that doesn’t strike out in San Francisco last time out, but he’s pitched very well in three home starts, allowing just five ERs in 18 innings, while striking out 20 of 79 batters. He also has a 62.1 GB% this year. It’s strange that two of the three HRs he’s allowed came in San Francisco, but things don’t go as planned every night over 162 games. The Phillies are the worst offense in baseball vs LHP (17.9 K-BB%, 7.3 HR/FB) and it’s not even close.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Logan Verrett (.289 BABIP – 81.7 LOB% – 17.3 HR/FB) has been the swingman for a banged up Mets rotation this season. After pitching well in his first two starts in April, he’s allowed 14 runs over 11.2 innings, walking 10 and striking out just six of 60 batters, though all three of those starts were on the road in tough parks. He has just a 5.6 K-BB% overall with a 24.7 Hard-Soft%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ricky Nolasco is never going to line up with his peripherals as he’s the rare pitcher who really can’t strand runners with a large enough sample size to consider it a real issue, but recently, his peripherals aren’t even that good. He’s walked eight of 81 batters, while striking out just 10 with four HRs in three starts. Texas is a pretty marginal offense in a park that props them up a bit, but I couldn’t argue too much if you wanted to use his previously strong peripherals (which may play better than actual run prevention on some sites) as an excuse to plug him into your secondary pitcher site on DraftKings at a low price.
Jerad Eickhoff already was a much better pitcher at home and a slightly below average one on the road for his career with an ERA 1.73 runs higher (FIP 1.07 higher) and K-BB% 6.9 points lower with nearly eight points more of hard contact. This isn’t just a road start. This is Colorado.
Chad Kuhl has struck out seven of 47 batters, while walking four with a HR and allowing hard contact on 38.9% of batted balls, but soft contact on just two. The former ninth round pick has no real prospect status. He did proceed quickly through the minors at a level per year, but without real standout pitches in a favorable park, but the Cubs are a patient, above average offense, that will make him work.
Nick Martinez has walked more batters than he’s struck out in all four starts and has a -6.3 K-BB%.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.8% | Home | 21.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.7% | 3.7% | Home | 36.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 5.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.6% | Road | 19.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 4.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 14.9% | 8.5% | Home | 22.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 8.5% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.0% | Home | 27.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 8.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.3% | 8.8% | Home | 17.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.1% | Home | 14.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.3% | Road | 19.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 10.9% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.6% | Road | 20.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 10.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.0% | 5.5% | Road | 23.5% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.9% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.6% | Road | 15.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.7% | Home | 28.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 4.0% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 18.0% | 9.1% | Home | 16.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.8% | Road | 21.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 5.4% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.4% | Road | 16.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 6.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 5.4% | Road | 32.0% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 9.1% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.3% | Road | 20.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.6% | 8.7% | Home | 14.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 14.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.5% | 4.8% | Home | 21.3% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.4% | Road | 23.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.8% | Road | 23.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 3.6% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.9% | Home | 25.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 6.6% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.7% | 8.3% | Road | 15.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.3% | Home | 15.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 12.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 22.0% | 7.2% | LH | 22.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.8% |
| Padres | Road | 24.1% | 7.1% | RH | 23.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 9.8% | LH | 21.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 10.1% | RH | 22.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.0% | 6.4% | RH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | RH | 19.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 21.7% | 7.7% | RH | 23.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.1% | 9.3% | RH | 20.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 5.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.3% | 7.5% | LH | 23.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 5.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.3% | 9.3% | LH | 24.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.9% |
| Astros | Home | 24.9% | 10.4% | RH | 24.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 18.3% | 7.1% | RH | 18.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.9% | 9.3% | RH | 20.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.6% | 9.6% | LH | 18.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| Mets | Home | 22.5% | 9.5% | RH | 22.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | RH | 22.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.3% |
| Twins | Road | 25.4% | 8.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.8% | 13.1% |
| Rays | Road | 23.4% | 8.3% | RH | 24.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.7% | 8.1% | RH | 19.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.0% |
| Giants | Home | 16.9% | 10.1% | LH | 18.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.9% | 6.1% | LH | 23.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.7% |
| Royals | Home | 17.4% | 6.5% | LH | 17.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.9% |
| Angels | Road | 15.3% | 7.3% | RH | 15.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 11.9% | 8.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2016 | 29.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | Home | 27.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 12.5% | 34.5% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 35.8% | 18.3% | 21.3% | 2016 | 22.2% | 0.0% | -11.1% | Home | 43.4% | 31.6% | 24.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | -11.1% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.9% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 2016 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 0.4% | Road | 27.5% | 13.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 18.8% | 4.4% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 38.9% | 5.6% | 33.3% | 2016 | 38.9% | 5.6% | 33.3% | Home | 61.5% | 14.3% | 61.5% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 5.6% | 33.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.6% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 2016 | 36.0% | 9.2% | 21.1% | Home | 31.3% | 11.3% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 48.1% | 11.8% | 40.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 28.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 2016 | 26.3% | 10.3% | 5.7% | Home | 30.6% | 6.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 7.1% | 22.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 29.8% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 2016 | 36.9% | 7.8% | 22.1% | Home | 30.8% | 4.9% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 5.6% | 24.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 2016 | 31.0% | 11.9% | 9.7% | Road | 36.4% | 11.8% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 13.3% | 44.1% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 30.1% | 15.9% | 9.0% | 2016 | 34.6% | 17.1% | 12.6% | Road | 34.3% | 16.7% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 30.8% | 18.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2016 | 27.7% | 14.6% | 6.2% | Road | 26.7% | 11.0% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 30.8% | -3.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.6% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.8% | 14.5% | 14.1% | Road | 28.6% | 16.5% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 0.0% | 14.6% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 28.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 2016 | 28.5% | 3.4% | 8.1% | Home | 28.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 31.2% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 2016 | 34.8% | 17.3% | 24.7% | Home | 28.4% | 15.4% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 42.9% | 17.1% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 31.5% | 23.8% | 12.7% | 2016 | 31.5% | 23.8% | 12.7% | Road | 32.3% | 30.8% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 16.7% | -4.6% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 2016 | 34.0% | 13.1% | 15.1% | Road | 34.3% | 11.5% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 5.9% | 12.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 2016 | 27.2% | 16.3% | 3.2% | Road | 27.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | L2 Years | 29.5% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 2016 | 34.9% | 12.0% | 18.3% | Road | 27.2% | 10.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 20.0% | 7.2% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 2016 | 30.6% | 13.3% | 14.1% | Home | 31.4% | 7.7% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 2016 | 28.7% | 12.0% | 12.5% | Home | 31.4% | 10.7% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 0.0% | -2.5% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 2016 | 33.5% | 11.1% | 16.6% | Road | 33.5% | 14.9% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 34.9% | 11.1% | 18.7% | 2016 | 35.2% | 15.0% | 18.2% | Road | 31.7% | 8.7% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.1% | 17.6% | 9.0% | 2016 | 28.1% | 17.6% | 9.0% | Home | 33.3% | 10.0% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 30.0% | 3.7% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 2016 | 32.7% | 15.8% | 15.3% | Road | 26.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 20.0% | 12.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 2016 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 12.0% | Home | 28.4% | 8.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 25.0% | 6.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 29.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | LH | 28.7% | 14.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 11.3% | 6.6% |
| Padres | Road | 33.1% | 14.7% | 15.8% | RH | 31.5% | 12.4% | 13.4% | L7Days | 39.7% | 19.7% | 23.4% |
| Indians | Home | 31.6% | 14.7% | 15.8% | LH | 30.3% | 8.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 13.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 33.3% | 16.3% | 15.2% | RH | 31.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.7% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | RH | 27.3% | 13.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.4% | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.2% | 15.8% | 13.1% | RH | 32.4% | 16.2% | 15.7% | L7Days | 35.6% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.2% | 13.9% | 12.7% | RH | 33.7% | 14.0% | 15.8% | L7Days | 39.2% | 15.9% | 23.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 15.3% | 18.0% | RH | 32.4% | 14.3% | 14.7% | L7Days | 27.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | LH | 33.1% | 13.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 33.7% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | LH | 34.3% | 13.5% | 16.8% | L7Days | 27.5% | 13.5% | 8.4% |
| Astros | Home | 33.3% | 16.0% | 15.3% | RH | 34.7% | 15.4% | 17.5% | L7Days | 28.4% | 19.3% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 31.1% | 11.6% | 10.7% | RH | 29.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 35.3% | 15.5% | 18.2% | RH | 32.8% | 13.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 31.8% | 23.4% | 12.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 31.5% | 15.4% | 13.5% | RH | 33.2% | 13.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 28.1% | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.3% | 11.3% | 15.9% | LH | 31.8% | 11.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 34.4% | 11.8% | 19.0% |
| Mets | Home | 34.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | RH | 34.8% | 14.4% | 17.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 21.8% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 34.2% | 16.3% | 12.8% | RH | 33.0% | 16.7% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.8% | 11.0% | 14.2% |
| Twins | Road | 30.0% | 13.7% | 10.7% | RH | 30.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 35.6% | 12.8% | 21.2% |
| Rays | Road | 33.5% | 15.9% | 15.0% | RH | 32.8% | 14.3% | 13.1% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 28.2% | 11.3% | 8.4% | RH | 28.9% | 12.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 14.5% | 9.1% |
| Giants | Home | 26.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | LH | 27.7% | 10.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 32.9% | 13.5% | 15.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | LH | 25.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | L7Days | 29.0% | 22.4% | 10.2% |
| Royals | Home | 30.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | LH | 27.4% | 12.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Angels | Road | 29.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | RH | 30.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 33.2% | 8.9% | 14.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 21.5% | 9.6% | 2.24 | 17.3% | 10.0% | 1.73 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 44.4% | 15.3% | 2.90 | 44.4% | 15.3% | 2.90 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.6% | 10.5% | 1.87 | 18.1% | 12.7% | 1.43 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 14.9% | 7.0% | 2.13 | 14.9% | 7.0% | 2.13 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.3% | 11.5% | 2.46 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 2.86 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.00 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 1.91 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.7% | 10.8% | 1.64 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 1.60 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.14 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 16.4% | 7.7% | 2.13 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 2.48 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.7% | 10.4% | 2.38 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 1.96 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.1% | 8.4% | 1.80 | 12.7% | 7.2% | 1.76 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.3% | 13.1% | 2.16 | 27.1% | 13.8% | 1.96 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 15.8% | 7.9% | 2.00 | 13.1% | 6.1% | 2.15 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.9% | 10.3% | 1.74 | 21.8% | 12.1% | 1.80 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.03 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 1.98 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.8% | 15.2% | 2.16 | 36.5% | 15.7% | 2.32 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 22.1% | 12.2% | 1.81 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 3.35 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 7.1% | 6.9% | 1.03 | 7.5% | 7.0% | 1.07 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.8% | 7.3% | 2.85 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.94 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 19.0% | 9.5% | 2.00 | 14.3% | 8.6% | 1.66 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 25.8% | 10.4% | 2.48 | 27.9% | 10.0% | 2.79 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 16.4% | 8.8% | 1.86 | 13.0% | 8.7% | 1.49 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 16.3% | 6.2% | 2.63 | 21.4% | 7.2% | 2.97 |
Luis Perdomo has seen his K% improve to be more in line with his SwStr% since moving to the rotation over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.65 | 4.49 | 0.84 | 4.72 | 1.07 | 3.96 | 0.31 | 3.41 | 4.92 | 1.51 | 5.41 | 2 | 4.55 | 1.14 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.48 | 4.55 | 1.07 | 4.63 | 1.15 | 3.8 | 0.32 | 5.04 | 4.48 | -0.56 | 4.54 | -0.5 | 4.43 | -0.61 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.09 | 5.46 | 1.37 | 5.74 | 1.65 | 4.17 | 0.08 | 4.09 | 5.46 | 1.37 | 5.74 | 1.65 | 4.17 | 0.08 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.36 | 3.85 | 1.49 | 3.73 | 1.37 | 3.31 | 0.95 | 2.64 | 3.85 | 1.21 | 3.7 | 1.06 | 3.86 | 1.22 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 4.87 | 4.5 | -0.37 | 4.42 | -0.45 | 4.1 | -0.77 | 6.82 | 4.5 | -2.32 | 4.56 | -2.26 | 4.06 | -2.76 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 5.14 | 4.75 | -0.39 | 5.06 | -0.08 | 4.09 | -1.05 | 2.48 | 5.07 | 2.59 | 5.49 | 3.01 | 3.55 | 1.07 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.3 | 4.07 | 0.77 | 4.08 | 0.78 | 3.95 | 0.65 | 2.37 | 4.37 | 2 | 4.64 | 2.27 | 4.36 | 1.99 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 5.43 | 5.16 | -0.27 | 5.01 | -0.42 | 5.62 | 0.19 | 6.48 | 4.76 | -1.72 | 4.47 | -2.01 | 6.49 | 0.01 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.67 | 3.58 | 0.91 | 3.5 | 0.83 | 3.69 | 1.02 | 4.34 | 3.93 | -0.41 | 3.97 | -0.37 | 5.48 | 1.14 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.57 | 4.75 | 0.18 | 4.69 | 0.12 | 4.88 | 0.31 | 2.76 | 4.7 | 1.94 | 4.77 | 2.01 | 3.55 | 0.79 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.57 | 3.87 | 0.3 | 3.3 | -0.27 | 2.63 | -0.94 | 2.84 | 3.65 | 0.81 | 3.25 | 0.41 | 2.19 | -0.65 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 4.01 | 4.99 | 0.98 | 4.96 | 0.95 | 5.57 | 1.56 | 6.23 | 5.67 | -0.56 | 5.21 | -1.02 | 9.79 | 3.56 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 7.93 | 4.01 | -3.92 | 4.05 | -3.88 | 5.06 | -2.87 | 5.34 | 3.05 | -2.29 | 3.03 | -2.31 | 3.91 | -1.43 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 4.54 | 4.23 | -0.31 | 4.51 | -0.03 | 4.53 | -0.01 | 2.43 | 4.17 | 1.74 | 4.63 | 2.2 | 3.53 | 1.1 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 3.21 | 2.97 | -0.24 | 3.25 | 0.04 | 3.71 | 0.5 | 1.83 | 2.47 | 0.64 | 2.75 | 0.92 | 2.69 | 0.86 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 3.28 | 4.71 | 1.43 | 5.05 | 1.77 | 4.9 | 1.62 | 3.6 | 5.06 | 1.46 | 5.53 | 1.93 | 7.37 | 3.77 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 6.45 | 6.66 | 0.21 | 7.27 | 0.82 | 7.34 | 0.89 | 6.14 | 6.46 | 0.32 | 6.92 | 0.78 | 6.99 | 0.85 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.82 | 3.88 | 0.06 | 4 | 0.18 | 3.88 | 0.06 | 3.26 | 4 | 0.74 | 4.04 | 0.78 | 2.81 | -0.45 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 5.26 | 4.22 | -1.04 | 4.29 | -0.97 | 4 | -1.26 | 5.84 | 4.92 | -0.92 | 4.97 | -0.87 | 4.5 | -1.34 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.78 | 3.79 | -0.99 | 3.62 | -1.16 | 3.86 | -0.92 | 4.06 | 3.1 | -0.96 | 3.09 | -0.97 | 2.46 | -1.6 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 3.03 | 3.21 | 0.18 | 2.99 | -0.04 | 3.34 | 0.31 | 3.03 | 3.22 | 0.19 | 2.99 | -0.04 | 3.34 | 0.31 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 5.36 | 4.68 | -0.68 | 4.6 | -0.76 | 5.01 | -0.35 | 5.74 | 4.85 | -0.89 | 4.57 | -1.17 | 5.66 | -0.08 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 6.1 | 5.33 | -0.77 | 5.35 | -0.75 | 5.24 | -0.86 | 5.31 | 5.03 | -0.28 | 4.98 | -0.33 | 6.27 | 0.96 |
Jon Lester is now separated from his estimators by a run with most of it stemming from his 85.1 LOB% which took a bit of a beating in his last start, but is still very high. His .265 BABIP is in line with the defense and his profile is fine. He has now allowed 14 HRs and hasn’t allowed more than 19 since 2012, but everybody’s allowing more this year it seems.
Luis Perdomo has a .402 BABIP and although he’s induced just one popup and a 22.6 LD% is just above average, that’s ridiculous. He’s generating so many ground balls with average contact management. Ten of the 42 fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard. All of this has led to a 62.6 LOB%. His peripherals suggest an All Star quality performance over the last month.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.300 | 0.294 | -0.006 | 0.208 | 4.8% | 88.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.278 | 0.222 | -0.056 | 0.111 | 0.0% | 70.6% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.301 | 0.292 | -0.009 | 0.178 | 17.2% | 86.1% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.298 | 0.286 | -0.012 | 0.171 | 0.0% | 92.3% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.278 | 0.261 | -0.017 | 0.163 | 11.5% | 83.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.291 | 0.305 | 0.014 | 0.169 | 6.2% | 88.3% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.290 | 0.321 | 0.031 | 0.178 | 10.9% | 86.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.308 | 0.293 | -0.015 | 0.212 | 14.7% | 88.5% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.289 | 0.295 | 0.006 | 0.211 | 11.4% | 84.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.258 | 0.265 | 0.007 | 0.191 | 13.5% | 87.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.311 | 0.313 | 0.002 | 0.192 | 8.4% | 89.8% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.308 | 0.382 | 0.074 | 0.207 | 13.8% | 87.9% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.306 | 0.289 | -0.017 | 0.227 | 1.9% | 91.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.304 | 0.402 | 0.098 | 0.226 | 2.4% | 87.7% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.306 | 0.298 | -0.008 | 0.197 | 9.2% | 83.9% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.290 | 0.243 | -0.047 | 0.185 | 14.7% | 77.3% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.304 | 0.315 | 0.011 | 0.181 | 12.0% | 84.3% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.321 | 0.032 | 0.141 | 6.7% | 87.1% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.303 | 0.299 | -0.004 | 0.187 | 9.3% | 88.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.321 | 0.328 | 0.007 | 0.184 | 6.3% | 89.8% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.310 | 0.364 | 0.054 | 0.242 | 5.0% | 85.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.317 | 0.310 | -0.007 | 0.184 | 0.0% | 84.7% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.294 | 0.305 | 0.011 | 0.21 | 6.3% | 87.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.308 | 0.319 | 0.011 | 0.218 | 2.0% | 90.9% |
Max Scherzer has a low BABIP with a great profile and indicators, which has helped his 16.3 HR/FB not affect his ERA, though an 84.8 LOB% is probably still too high. He’s induced 19 popups (free outs) already. The BABIP can’t be debated much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The dynamic is very interesting tonight, especially on DraftKings. Between $6.2 and $10.3K are just two pitchers. One is pitching in Colorado and is in just his second start back after Tommy John surgery. Not all of the low priced arms are without merit though.
We’ve got two pitchers up top with a GB rate over 60% and above average strikeout rate over a full complement of starts over the last month. They’re two of the four lowest priced pitchers on the board.
Value Tier One
Tyler Anderson – Bet you didn’t expect to see a Colorado pitcher in the top spot, did you? Small and oddly priced slates lead to strange calls. Not that he doesn’t merit it mind you. A guy with a 16.4 K-BB% and 60+ GB% against an offense the caliber of the Phillies against LHP this year would be worth close to $10K if not more in a neutral park, so he still easily covers his cost pitching anywhere near that good in a terrible park tonight.
Luis Perdomo probably should not be expected to keep all of this up, especially such a high ground ball rate, but that goes even more so for his extreme BABIP and HR/FB. I fail to understand how a guy who is either missing bats or getting ground balls over 70% of the time is getting in this much trouble. It began to turn around a bit in his last start, and finally in a good spot at barely above the minimum on DraftKings, he’s my top point per dollar play there and probably even a decent contrarian play on FanDuel for even $2.7K more.
Value Tier Two
Max Scherzer (1) – The only question is one of price. Occasionally, the HRs get out of hand, but more often than not, he’ll run up a ton of fantasy points. What else is there to say? There’s a decent sized difference between he and Lester, so I probably can’t even tell you to pay up if considering one other the other, but players probably need to make an effort to have significant exposure to this arm.
Value Tier Three
Jon Lester (2) was smashed in his last start and we can consider that a freak occurrence for now, but he has been allowing more HRs recently. The good news is that even though he faces a good offense at home and vs LHP, it’s in a park that greatly suppresses RH power and the Pirates do have a high strikeout rate against lefties. Fading Lester, especially on two pitcher sites, was going to be very difficult with multiple lineups anyway.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brandon McCarthy was about as dominant as one could be in their first start back from Tommy John surgery and is in another good spot here. The biggest concern would be a high price tag on DraftKings and any imposed limitations for a guy who has missed over a year. We know McCarthy isn’t as good as he showed in that first start back, but can be really good when he’s on and we may have to consider it on two pitcher sites considering how the evening board is priced with the only pitcher between $6.2K and $10.3K playing in Colorado.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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