Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 10th
This is about to get confusing. Two double-headers on Saturday, which puts 17 games on the schedule, too many to fit. I’ve chosen game one pitchers to list for each situation except that the Braves have not yet announced (as of late Friday night), which order their pitchers (Wisler and Newcomb) will go in.
To make matters worse, three of the four teams are throwing a RHP and LHP, making the opposing team stats relevant for only one of today’s games. The Braves are starting Sean Newcomb, making his major league debut, in one of the games, so the choice was to list Wisler, the righty because at least he can fill out the stat boards.
Under such frustrating circumstances, we’ll only be covering the less confusing night slate in the notes tonight. It’s only six games, but where the majority of the pitching prowess exists today anyway and we have an early noon start today.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1 | 3.63 | 5.67 | 54.6% | 0.89 | 2.59 | 2.16 | CIN | 97 | 103 | 117 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 6.7 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 34.4% | 0.89 | 4.09 | 5.08 | TOR | 91 | 83 | 77 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 13.6 | 4.37 | 5. | 27.5% | 0.89 | 7.8 | 4.52 | LOS | 114 | 101 | 49 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -11.6 | 3.73 | 6.28 | 54.8% | 0.98 | 3.63 | 3.15 | PHI | 74 | 86 | 100 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 5.1 | 2.93 | 6.95 | 41.3% | 1.13 | 3.1 | 2.58 | DET | 85 | 113 | 141 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -3.5 | 4.66 | 5.61 | 42.5% | 1.01 | 4.71 | 6.89 | NYY | 126 | 120 | 131 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.7 | 4.52 | 5.78 | 33.6% | 0.97 | 4.68 | 3.38 | PIT | 90 | 91 | 110 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 0.4 | 5.72 | 4.5 | 42.3% | 1.09 | 5.17 | 6.93 | CLE | 106 | 86 | 103 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 2.3 | 4.85 | 5. | 46.1% | 0.96 | 4.54 | 4.47 | COL | 92 | 83 | 109 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.8 | 3.95 | 5.55 | 49.8% | 0.96 | 4.13 | 3.66 | OAK | 79 | 101 | 111 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -1.9 | 4.1 | 5.66 | 48.7% | 1.01 | 3.7 | 4.35 | TEX | 84 | 76 | 107 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 8 | 4.13 | 5.78 | 35.3% | 0.91 | 4.8 | 5.2 | SDG | 80 | 82 | 83 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.7 | 4.26 | 5.13 | 42.2% | 0.96 | 4.01 | 2.08 | CHC | 102 | 87 | 96 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -0.2 | 3.93 | 6.5 | 43.5% | 0.93 | 3.56 | 1.92 | MIN | 98 | 105 | 77 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 9.1 | 4.89 | 4.79 | 39.9% | 0.93 | 5.51 | 4.95 | SFO | 70 | 78 | 93 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -5.5 | 4.06 | 6.04 | 42.1% | 1.09 | 4.05 | 4.71 | CHW | 88 | 81 | 96 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -4 | 4.47 | 5.88 | 45.7% | 1.13 | 4.35 | 5.59 | ARI | 120 | 106 | 100 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.53 | 33.9% | 1.13 | 4.16 | 4.12 | BOS | 90 | 95 | 78 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.3 | 3.68 | 5.4 | 49.6% | 1.01 | 3.51 | 2.48 | BAL | 92 | 92 | 72 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2 | 3.61 | 6.36 | 60.5% | 0.89 | 3.41 | 3.43 | SEA | 115 | 109 | 128 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.3 | 4.86 | 5.82 | 52.9% | 1.01 | 4.89 | 4.88 | WAS | 119 | 106 | 74 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 2.6 | 4.84 | 5.83 | 37.3% | 1 | 4.87 | 4.75 | NYM | 119 | 103 | 125 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | -7.9 | 5 | 46.1% | 0.91 | 6.93 | 2.32 | KAN | 72 | 79 | 92 | |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 1.6 | 4.23 | 5.68 | 41.5% | 0.94 | 3.87 | 3.62 | ANA | 81 | 93 | 118 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4 | 4.56 | 4.82 | 0.347 | 0.98 | 5.05 | 5.42 | STL | 95 | 95 | 79 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -5.6 | 4.34 | 5.91 | 0.416 | 0.94 | 4.46 | 3.71 | HOU | 113 | 122 | 124 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.1 | 4.06 | 5.53 | 0.547 | 1 | 4.48 | 3.95 | ATL | 100 | 93 | 116 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.3 | 3.95 | 5.71 | 0.455 | 0.96 | 3.59 | 2.96 | TAM | 113 | 89 | 99 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -7.4 | 4.71 | 5.03 | 0.425 | 0.97 | 5.42 | 5.15 | MIA | 100 | 95 | 106 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -4.9 | 4.05 | 5.48 | 0.543 | 1.13 | 4.11 | 2.59 | MIL | 100 | 99 | 114 |
Alex Wood makes his first start in a little over two weeks due to a shoulder issue. He did not allow a run in four of his previous five starts and now has a 23.4 K-B% on the year with a 68.7 GB% and 20.0 Hard%, allowing a Barrel in 1% of PAs. If he’s healthy, he’d rival Kershaw for the best pitcher on the staff this year. He doesn’t return to an easy matchup (Reds 18.0 HR/FB vs LHP), but Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Chris Sale has struck out just nine in each of his last two starts (11 IP – 52 BF), as opposing offenses are putting some runs on the board. His BABIP has been at least .400 in three of his last four starts with a strand rate below 60% in each of his last three. Over those four starts, his hard contact rate maxes out at 31.3%. Detroit is the hottest offense in the majors with a 38.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week in addition to their 25.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.
Luis Severino has consistently struck out seven or eight in each of his last four starts and has a 21.7 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB% on the season. That’s one way to survive Yankee Stadium. He struck out eight Orioles, allowing just a run in 6.1 innings two starts back. This Baltimore team has a 19.9 K-BB% on the road and still may be without Manny Machado.
Marcus Stroman generates ground balls. His 60.2 GB% is the one thing you can count on. Strikeouts may come and go (league average on the season) with his rates up over the last month, but he hasn’t struck out more than five in three starts and hasn’t gone more than six innings in six starts. In fact, he’s struck out more than five just three time, all within a five game span where he struck out a total of three in the other two. He faces a tough offense in a favorable park.
Zack Godley has gone at least six innings in five straight starts, striking out exactly six in four of his five starts this season. His 13.5 SwStr% suggests something even stronger, part of the problem potentially being that he generates so many weak ground balls with his sinker (64.2 GB%, 4.0 Hard-Soft%) that he has little incentive to extend plate appearances. His 82.7 mph aEV is the lowest on today’s entire board, not just the night slate. The Brewers have a 24.8 K% vs RHP, but are a dangerous offense in this park (18.0 HR/FB vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Ariel Miranda (.246 – 78.8% – 11.2) has a 13.3 K-BB% and one of tonight’s top matchups strictly by numbers. He has an 18.6 K-BB% at home since last season and seems to be boom or bust this season, following up a four walk, one strikeout effort with nine Ks and a single walk in a complete game. Toronto should be much better against LHP and may be going forward. They have retained a 10.7 BB% against southpaws.
Junior Guerra (.218 – 96.2 – 14.3) has just a 7.2 K-BB% and finds himself in a tough spot in Arizona (27.2 Hard-Soft%).
David Holmberg (.137 – 75.3 – 4.3)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander has just a league strikeout and swinging strike rate with a 33.2 GB% and 36.1 Hard%. He’s allowed seven HRs over his last five starts. The Red Sox have just a 7.8 HR/FB at home, missing that Papi Power, but also just a 16.7 K% at Fenway (18.7 K% vs RHP).
Josh Tomlin has pitched into the seventh inning in three straight starts, but with just a total of 12 strikeouts (88 BF). His 59.9 LOB% suggests a pitcher better than his ERA underneath all that, but he is a fly ball pitcher who allows hard contact on more than one-third of batted balls. A matchup with the White Sox would seem ideal (17.8 K-BB% vs RHP), but he has stark reverse splits with a .342 career wOBA allowed to RHBs.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 7.8% | Home | 29.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.2% | Home | 24.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 9.4% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.2% | Road | 14.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.2% | Home | 21.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 8.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 4.9% | Home | 29.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 5.8% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.6% | 8.6% | Road | 17.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.3% | Road | 21.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 3.8% |
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 11.7% | 11.2% | Road | 13.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 14.7% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.7% | 9.2% | Home | 15.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 9.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 17.8% | 5.5% | Home | 19.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 5.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.0% | 9.0% | Home | 24.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 9.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.4% | Road | 21.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 13.6% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.5% | Road | 21.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.8% | Home | 22.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.6% | 11.0% | Road | 17.9% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.6% | Home | 16.0% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.9% | Road | 21.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 15.3% | 12.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 24.8% | 7.0% | Road | 24.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.5% | Home | 24.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 3.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.3% | Road | 20.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.4% | 8.5% | Road | 12.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.8% | Home | 15.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Diaz | Padres | L2 Years | 16.5% | 11.9% | Home | 13.6% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.2% | Home | 19.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.1% | 10.6% | Road | 21.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.9% | Road | 19.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.9% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.6% | Road | 17.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.7% | 7.2% | Road | 24.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 6.8% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.3% | Home | 13.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 3.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.6% | Home | 19.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 4.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 7.8% | LH | 20.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.9% | 8.2% | LH | 23.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 25.9% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.1% | 9.7% | RH | 23.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 28.1% | 9.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.6% | 7.0% | RH | 23.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 25.2% | 9.9% | LH | 20.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.5% | 10.8% | RH | 22.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.4% | 9.5% | RH | 18.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 19.4% | 10.0% | LH | 17.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 7.6% | RH | 22.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.2% | 8.6% | RH | 24.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.6% | 7.7% | LH | 26.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.2% | 8.5% | RH | 26.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 31.8% | 6.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 10.5% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.7% |
| Twins | Road | 21.2% | 8.9% | RH | 22.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.1% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.5% | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 5.9% | RH | 23.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 5.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.4% | 9.0% | RH | 23.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.3% | 13.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 9.4% | RH | 18.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.9% | 6.0% | RH | 22.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 27.9% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.3% | 9.9% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 8.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 9.4% | LH | 22.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Road | 19.3% | 8.9% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.7% | 6.4% | RH | 21.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.4% |
| Angels | Road | 20.5% | 9.7% | RH | 19.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.6% | 7.4% | RH | 18.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | RH | 19.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 13.1% | 8.5% |
| Rays | Home | 24.5% | 9.9% | LH | 27.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.6% | 5.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.3% | 8.8% | RH | 24.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 2017 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | Home | 22.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% | Home | 34.0% | 11.7% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | -2.6% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 29.3% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 2017 | 30.0% | 13.6% | 10.0% | Road | 53.3% | 30.0% | 40.0% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 20.0% | 12.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2017 | 33.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% | Home | 28.0% | 12.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 6.7% | 12.5% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 2017 | 30.7% | 8.2% | 14.8% | Home | 33.2% | 18.1% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 2017 | 26.9% | 11.4% | 0.0% | Road | 28.8% | 8.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 23.5% | -8.9% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 2017 | 35.8% | 10.6% | 15.1% | Road | 32.3% | 15.9% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 12.0% | 21.4% |
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.8% | 17.2% | 17.4% | 2017 | 36.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | Road | 50.0% | 7.7% | 36.7% | L14 Days | 52.0% | 8.3% | 28.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 38.1% | 17.7% | 23.1% | 2017 | 36.6% | 4.8% | 14.1% | Home | 38.3% | 18.9% | 24.2% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 9.1% | 20.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 2017 | 37.4% | 14.3% | 22.1% | Home | 29.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 28.6% | 22.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 2017 | 31.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | Home | 32.7% | 13.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.6% | 13.6% | 20.5% | 2017 | 38.7% | 14.9% | 23.9% | Road | 33.9% | 15.1% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 18.8% | 38.5% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.4% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 2017 | 34.7% | 11.5% | 14.3% | Road | 33.0% | 19.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 14.9% | 6.9% | Home | 31.9% | 8.7% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 11.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.3% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 2017 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 2.5% | Road | 28.0% | 14.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 34.1% | 16.1% | 18.8% | 2017 | 35.5% | 12.3% | 21.9% | Home | 32.2% | 19.2% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 8.7% | 15.1% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 2017 | 25.9% | 14.3% | 6.9% | Road | 31.1% | 9.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 2017 | 36.1% | 10.5% | 20.7% | Road | 29.1% | 11.4% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.0% | 16.7% | 6.1% | 2017 | 28.0% | 16.3% | 9.3% | Home | 29.8% | 21.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 14.3% | -8.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 15.8% | 11.2% | 2017 | 29.6% | 14.3% | 9.4% | Road | 30.9% | 20.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 11.1% | 22.8% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 2017 | 35.5% | 12.3% | 20.5% | Road | 33.5% | 9.1% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 33.3% | 24.2% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 34.2% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 2017 | 50.0% | 5.9% | 31.2% | Home | 39.4% | 13.2% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 60.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Miguel Diaz | Padres | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.7% | 6.6% | 2017 | 32.9% | 16.7% | 6.6% | Home | 32.5% | 18.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -42.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.7% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 2017 | 30.8% | 27.7% | 12.7% | Home | 34.8% | 16.8% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 38.7% | 17.9% | 28.0% | 2017 | 38.7% | 17.9% | 28.0% | Road | 35.1% | 8.7% | 22.8% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 34.8% | 14.1% | 20.5% | 2017 | 37.8% | 20.5% | 23.1% | Road | 39.7% | 15.7% | 26.9% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 22.2% | 20.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 30.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 32.6% | 14.9% | 10.3% | Road | 33.9% | 9.7% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 2.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.8% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 2017 | 34.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | Road | 35.3% | 16.7% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 5.9% | 15.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 28.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 2017 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.4% | Home | 31.7% | 3.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 12.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.4% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 2017 | 26.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | Home | 38.0% | 21.6% | 26.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | -9.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 28.5% | 14.3% | 7.6% | LH | 29.2% | 18.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.0% | 20.6% | 0.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.9% | 16.7% | 12.2% | LH | 30.0% | 11.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.4% | 16.5% | 21.0% | RH | 34.4% | 13.2% | 19.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.2% | 10.6% | 5.6% | RH | 29.3% | 11.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 16.1% | 11.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.7% | 12.8% | 18.2% | LH | 43.0% | 16.9% | 25.7% | L7Days | 50.0% | 18.6% | 38.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.5% | 19.7% | 9.4% | RH | 32.5% | 17.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 35.4% | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | RH | 30.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 6.8% | 10.9% |
| Indians | Home | 31.8% | 13.8% | 16.0% | LH | 33.3% | 11.5% | 15.9% | L7Days | 36.5% | 15.2% | 22.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.5% | 13.1% | 10.2% | RH | 30.1% | 13.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 17.8% | 8.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.2% | 11.6% | 18.4% | RH | 35.0% | 15.7% | 19.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.2% | 14.1% | 10.4% | LH | 29.4% | 14.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 18.2% | 11.8% |
| Padres | Home | 28.3% | 11.9% | 6.1% | RH | 29.3% | 14.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 40.0% | 13.0% | 21.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.3% | 16.0% | 13.3% | RH | 29.3% | 12.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 27.4% | 16.7% | 7.8% |
| Twins | Road | 32.0% | 12.9% | 15.7% | RH | 33.5% | 13.8% | 17.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 10.7% | 12.0% |
| Giants | Home | 24.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | RH | 28.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.7% | 1.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.6% | 14.2% | 13.7% | RH | 29.9% | 13.5% | 10.6% | L7Days | 43.4% | 14.0% | 26.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 40.1% | 17.8% | 27.2% | RH | 36.5% | 16.0% | 20.2% | L7Days | 40.0% | 15.0% | 26.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 36.9% | 7.8% | 19.2% | RH | 35.3% | 10.3% | 17.6% | L7Days | 29.7% | 16.0% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.5% | 14.5% | 16.6% | RH | 29.7% | 14.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.5% | 17.3% | 4.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | RH | 30.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 28.4% | 15.8% | 8.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.0% | 15.0% | 14.5% | LH | 30.9% | 16.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% |
| Mets | Road | 38.7% | 17.7% | 21.8% | RH | 35.5% | 13.3% | 18.0% | L7Days | 38.5% | 22.6% | 20.0% |
| Royals | Road | 31.9% | 14.0% | 12.6% | RH | 32.6% | 11.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 37.4% | 9.2% | 22.6% |
| Angels | Road | 32.8% | 10.5% | 13.5% | RH | 30.3% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 30.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | RH | 30.6% | 12.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 31.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Home | 29.1% | 16.3% | 10.5% | RH | 31.7% | 15.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 34.7% | 15.0% | 18.7% |
| Braves | Home | 31.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% | RH | 31.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | L7Days | 32.7% | 9.9% | 12.0% |
| Rays | Home | 36.5% | 15.8% | 17.3% | LH | 34.3% | 12.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 36.7% | 20.4% | 12.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.3% | 13.7% | 10.0% | RH | 31.1% | 13.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 16.6% | 11.4% | RH | 33.9% | 18.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 37.3% | 17.2% | 15.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 31.3% | 12.3% | 2.54 | 31.4% | 13.8% | 2.28 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.13 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 27.4% | 10.9% | 2.51 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 2.63 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.4% | 15.9% | 2.29 | 34.6% | 15.1% | 2.29 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 13.7% | 6.3% | 2.17 | 12.8% | 5.8% | 2.21 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 25.0% | 11.7% | 2.14 | 26.2% | 12.4% | 2.11 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 13.0% | 5.0% | 2.60 | 13.8% | 4.6% | 3.00 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.18 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.24 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.33 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 2.78 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.7% | 8.6% | 2.41 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 2.58 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 33.8% | 13.4% | 2.52 | 33.3% | 12.8% | 2.60 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.9% | 11.2% | 2.58 | 29.3% | 10.5% | 2.79 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.7% | 7.4% | 2.26 | 18.3% | 8.0% | 2.29 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 18.1% | 11.5% | 1.57 | 15.3% | 10.9% | 1.40 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 21.4% | 9.1% | 2.35 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 1.97 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 27.5% | 11.7% | 2.35 | 25.4% | 13.4% | 1.90 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.7% | 9.5% | 2.07 | 24.0% | 11.0% | 2.18 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.47 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 2.60 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 7.9% | 7.4% | 1.07 | 16.7% | 10.6% | 1.58 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.09 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 2.63 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 19.5% | 9.8% | 1.99 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.1% | 7.9% | 2.80 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 3.31 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 21.1% | 11.0% | 1.92 | 19.3% | 11.9% | 1.62 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.25 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 2.06 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 27.5% | 14.6% | 1.88 | 29.1% | 15.3% | 1.90 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 15.0% | 7.6% | 1.97 | 13.8% | 7.2% | 1.92 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 21.9% | 13.5% | 1.62 | 21.0% | 13.7% | 1.53 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.69 | 2.6 | 0.91 | 2.4 | 0.71 | 1.91 | 0.22 | 2.46 | 0.77 | 0 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.82 | 1.82 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.74 | 4.39 | 0.65 | 4.68 | 0.94 | 4.31 | 0.57 | 4.49 | 0.75 | 2.03 | 4.34 | 2.31 | 4.64 | 2.61 | 3.17 | 1.14 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 4.5 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 5.18 | 0.68 | 5.22 | 0.72 | 5.87 | 1.37 | 4.5 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 5.18 | 0.68 | 5.22 | 0.72 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.29 | 3.6 | 0.31 | 3.39 | 0.1 | 3.34 | 0.05 | 2.05 | -1.24 | 2.65 | 3.59 | 0.94 | 3.41 | 0.76 | 2.7 | 0.05 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.89 | 2.43 | -0.46 | 2.44 | -0.45 | 1.85 | -1.04 | 1.48 | -1.41 | 4.45 | 2.53 | -1.92 | 2.46 | -1.99 | 2.39 | -2.06 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.59 | 5.56 | -0.03 | 5.53 | -0.06 | 5.21 | -0.38 | 5.75 | 0.16 | 6.75 | 5.59 | -1.16 | 5.56 | -1.19 | 5.61 | -1.14 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.59 | 4.09 | 0.5 | 4.47 | 0.88 | 4 | 0.41 | 3.49 | -0.10 | 3.03 | 3.6 | 0.57 | 3.96 | 0.93 | 3.48 | 0.45 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 2.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 5.64 | 3.14 | 4.13 | 1.63 | 5.81 | 3.31 | 2.35 | 5.62 | 3.27 | 5.76 | 3.41 | 4.44 | 2.09 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 3.75 | 5.41 | 1.66 | 4.85 | 1.1 | 3.86 | 0.11 | 6.48 | 2.73 | 3.75 | 5.41 | 1.66 | 4.85 | 1.1 | 3.86 | 0.11 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 4.09 | 3.75 | -0.34 | 3.79 | -0.3 | 3.89 | -0.2 | 3.89 | -0.20 | 4.84 | 3.92 | -0.92 | 4 | -0.84 | 3.79 | -1.05 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.03 | 4.8 | 1.77 | 4.55 | 1.52 | 4.61 | 1.58 | 4.20 | 1.17 | 3.6 | 4.47 | 0.87 | 3.98 | 0.38 | 3.94 | 0.34 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.33 | 4.99 | -0.34 | 5.25 | -0.08 | 5.5 | 0.17 | 6.13 | 0.80 | 10.8 | 5.74 | -5.06 | 5.87 | -4.93 | 7.87 | -2.93 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 2.61 | 2.64 | 0.03 | 3.05 | 0.44 | 2.73 | 0.12 | 2.38 | -0.23 | 2.33 | 2.73 | 0.4 | 3.07 | 0.74 | 2.25 | -0.08 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.29 | 2.91 | -1.38 | 2.75 | -1.54 | 2.91 | -1.38 | 2.41 | -1.88 | 2.7 | 2.57 | -0.13 | 2.38 | -0.32 | 2.08 | -0.62 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 2.76 | 3.93 | 1.17 | 4.48 | 1.72 | 3.75 | 0.99 | 2.52 | -0.24 | 2.76 | 3.94 | 1.18 | 4.48 | 1.72 | 3.75 | 0.99 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 5.54 | 4.11 | -1.43 | 3.93 | -1.61 | 3.77 | -1.77 | 6.62 | 1.08 | 4.09 | 4.13 | 0.04 | 4.2 | 0.11 | 4.07 | -0.02 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 1.83 | 4.99 | 3.16 | 4.94 | 3.11 | 5.06 | 3.23 | 5.34 | 3.51 | 1.08 | 5.59 | 4.51 | 5.37 | 4.29 | 4.93 | 3.85 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.63 | 4.74 | 0.11 | 5.06 | 0.43 | 4.54 | -0.09 | 3.31 | -1.32 | 5.2 | 4.91 | -0.29 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 6.25 | 1.05 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.9 | 3.11 | 0.21 | 2.89 | -0.01 | 3.16 | 0.26 | 2.50 | -0.40 | 2.2 | 3.31 | 1.11 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 2.51 | 0.31 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.25 | 3.7 | 0.45 | 3.5 | 0.25 | 3.57 | 0.32 | 4.01 | 0.76 | 3.07 | 3.21 | 0.14 | 3.09 | 0.02 | 3.35 | 0.28 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.64 | 4.93 | 0.29 | 4.57 | -0.07 | 4.42 | -0.22 | 5.29 | 0.65 | 5.4 | 4.34 | -1.06 | 4.02 | -1.38 | 4.59 | -0.81 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 7 | 6.06 | -0.94 | 6.71 | -0.29 | 4.85 | -2.15 | 7.45 | 0.45 | 0 | 6.23 | 6.23 | 5.57 | 5.57 | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 | 5.63 | -1.87 | 6.16 | -1.34 | 5.66 | -1.84 | 3.12 | 4.27 | 1.15 | 4.74 | 1.62 | 2.73 | -0.39 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.84 | 4.47 | -0.37 | 4.45 | -0.39 | 6.54 | 1.7 | 7.05 | 2.21 | 3.95 | 4.29 | 0.34 | 4.29 | 0.34 | 4.21 | 0.26 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.18 | 4.55 | -0.63 | 4.63 | -0.55 | 5.29 | 0.11 | 7.97 | 2.79 | 5.02 | 5.55 | 0.53 | 5.25 | 0.23 | 4.33 | -0.69 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.05 | 4.2 | -0.85 | 4.45 | -0.6 | 5.66 | 0.61 | 6.68 | 1.63 | 6.15 | 4.71 | -1.44 | 4.82 | -1.33 | 6.15 | 0 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.53 | 4.28 | -1.25 | 4.23 | -1.3 | 4.39 | -1.14 | 5.90 | 0.37 | 4.26 | 4.43 | 0.17 | 4.26 | 0 | 3.7 | -0.56 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.81 | 3.76 | -0.05 | 3.71 | -0.1 | 3.22 | -0.59 | 2.30 | -1.51 | 2.7 | 3.52 | 0.82 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 3.11 | 0.41 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.57 | 4.84 | 0.27 | 5.03 | 0.46 | 4.39 | -0.18 | 4.61 | 0.04 | 2.83 | 4.65 | 1.82 | 4.62 | 1.79 | 3.25 | 0.42 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.39 | 3.6 | 1.21 | 3.16 | 0.77 | 3.02 | 0.63 | 3.24 | 0.85 | 2.2 | 3.44 | 1.24 | 3 | 0.8 | 2.71 | 0.51 |
Alex Wood is not expected to retain a 4.8 HR/FB with a bit of skepticism on his 80.3 LOB% as well.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.281 | 0.281 | 0 | 68.7% | 0.13 | 19.0% | 85.5% | 85.7 | 1.70% | 1.00% | 115 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.283 | 0.246 | -0.037 | 37.2% | 0.154 | 14.6% | 86.4% | 86.7 | 6.20% | 4.30% | 193 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.277 | 0.324 | 0.047 | 28.2% | 0.154 | 13.6% | 83.1% | 87.3 | 12.50% | 8.80% | 40 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.290 | 0.258 | -0.032 | 51.0% | 0.18 | 12.9% | 85.4% | 86.7 | 5.00% | 3.10% | 202 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.314 | 0.301 | -0.013 | 39.0% | 0.219 | 11.0% | 75.2% | 87.3 | 6.90% | 4.00% | 189 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.308 | 0.340 | 0.032 | 41.3% | 0.25 | 17.1% | 92.0% | 87.9 | 4.80% | 3.60% | 104 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.277 | 0.235 | -0.042 | 35.8% | 0.159 | 17.6% | 85.4% | 86.2 | 7.30% | 4.70% | 179 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 0.275 | 0.137 | -0.138 | 46.2% | 0.096 | 26.1% | 90.0% | 85.9 | 9.60% | 7.20% | 52 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.290 | 0.257 | -0.033 | 44.3% | 0.257 | 14.3% | 88.4% | 86.6 | 4.20% | 2.90% | 71 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.284 | 0.264 | -0.02 | 52.7% | 0.147 | 0.0% | 86.6% | 87.7 | 8.40% | 6.40% | 131 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.294 | 0.274 | -0.02 | 45.6% | 0.191 | 9.7% | 86.5% | 86.2 | 6.60% | 4.50% | 211 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.306 | 0.220 | -0.086 | 38.7% | 0.141 | 6.0% | 83.5% | 90.4 | 12.70% | 8.50% | 142 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.284 | 0.217 | -0.067 | 25.0% | 0.208 | 11.5% | 83.2% | 87.5 | 12.20% | 7.80% | 49 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.307 | 0.340 | 0.033 | 41.8% | 0.268 | 9.0% | 82.2% | 86.3 | 6.00% | 4.00% | 216 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.273 | 0.205 | -0.068 | 44.4% | 0.111 | 11.1% | 83.2% | 86.7 | 4.90% | 3.10% | 81 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.308 | 0.327 | 0.019 | 41.7% | 0.237 | 4.1% | 90.9% | 88.2 | 5.60% | 4.60% | 214 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.307 | 0.218 | -0.089 | 45.6% | 0.175 | 4.8% | 84.4% | 87.4 | 6.90% | 4.80% | 58 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.304 | 0.298 | -0.006 | 33.2% | 0.212 | 8.4% | 85.5% | 89 | 9.10% | 6.10% | 208 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.278 | 0.282 | 0.004 | 54.5% | 0.18 | 6.1% | 85.8% | 87 | 7.70% | 5.10% | 182 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.298 | 0.329 | 0.031 | 60.2% | 0.176 | 4.1% | 89.8% | 87.5 | 6.70% | 4.90% | 223 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.284 | 0.344 | 0.06 | 43.5% | 0.264 | 10.8% | 91.8% | 87.4 | 6.80% | 5.10% | 220 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.278 | 0.258 | -0.02 | 34.4% | 0.125 | 5.9% | 93.6% | 88.3 | 6.30% | 5.30% | 32 |
| Miguel Diaz | SDG | 0.304 | 0.268 | -0.036 | 46.1% | 0.145 | 16.7% | 86.2% | 85.7 | 9.20% | 6.40% | 76 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.291 | 0.289 | -0.002 | 45.8% | 0.179 | 6.2% | 85.2% | 86.6 | 9.30% | 6.60% | 183 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.300 | 0.386 | 0.086 | 34.7% | 0.28 | 10.7% | 89.0% | 89.9 | 12.00% | 8.00% | 75 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.286 | 0.294 | 0.008 | 37.0% | 0.19 | 6.8% | 84.6% | 89.3 | 11.80% | 8.50% | 204 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.326 | 0.333 | 0.007 | 55.0% | 0.201 | 12.8% | 88.0% | 85.8 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 193 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.285 | 0.237 | -0.048 | 49.6% | 0.165 | 4.4% | 84.2% | 87.8 | 4.50% | 2.70% | 134 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.307 | 0.283 | -0.024 | 41.5% | 0.211 | 20.8% | 89.6% | 86.4 | 4.90% | 3.70% | 143 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.270 | -0.024 | 64.2% | 0.168 | 16.7% | 86.8% | 82.7 | 4.90% | 3.40% | 102 |
Marcus Stroman has a low line drive rate, but does not generate pop ups and ground balls generate more hits than fly balls. Contact authority is just about average as well. He has a .307 career BABIP and is not too far off that this year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Severino (2) is a $10K pitcher at this point. The issue with his price tag is perception. Yankee Stadium is perceived as an enormously positive run environment when it’s not. The Orioles are perceived as a very good offense, when they haven’t been this year. This creates, possibly, our top potential value spot tonight.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) has allowed a few runs and not gone as deep in recent starts, but his SwStr hasn’t dropped below 12% in a single start this year yet. Everything under the hood looks fine. The biggest issue here is his matchup against the hottest offense in baseball, a predominantly RH lineup that hits the ball hard.
Value Tier Three
Alex Wood would be tonight’s top value if we were not concerned about his workload. Even prior to the injury, he threw more than 95 pitches just once and only that by a single pitch. Pitch for pitch, he’s been one of the top pitchers in baseball this year. Not really knowing his pitch limit, I’m not really sure where to put him, but would have trouble completely omitting him on a six game slate.
Zack Godley has the upside to be a top pitcher tonight with a cost below $8K too low, but he doesn’t always maximize his swinging strike potential and faces a dangerous offense in a difficult park.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Marcus Stroman should give you ground balls in a great park. Whether or not you’ll get more than six innings or five strikeouts is more difficult project because he’s accomplished both of those things together in just one start this year.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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