Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 24th
We’re going to try to cover the entire day and do it quickly with the mid-afternoon and night slates basically splitting most of the action. It appears to be a strikeout party today with all the top end arms. Just double-checked MLB.com this morning to make sure all the pitchers were correct too.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 2.6 | 4.39 | 5.46 | 38.8% | 0.91 | 5.02 | 5.14 | SDG | 84 | 82 | 67 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 4.5 | 4.94 | 5.4 | 39.8% | 1.01 | 4.86 | 4.31 | NYY | 129 | 121 | 69 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 2.4 | 5.79 | 6.75 | 42.7% | 1.13 | 6.2 | 5.11 | ARI | 116 | 106 | 107 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2 | 2.48 | 7.13 | 48.6% | 0.89 | 2.46 | 3.46 | COL | 86 | 89 | 72 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -4.5 | 3.31 | 6.75 | 43.4% | 1.09 | 3.45 | 2.2 | MIN | 95 | 100 | 69 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -14.2 | 4.4 | 5. | 40.0% | 0.98 | 6.69 | 4.4 | CHW | 101 | 84 | 105 |
| David Price | BOS | 2.7 | 3.51 | 6.57 | 43.3% | 1.13 | 3.24 | 5.68 | ANA | 82 | 90 | 135 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 3.17 | 4.8 | 32.2% | 0.91 | 4.12 | 2.06 | DET | 83 | 97 | 71 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -2.7 | 4.59 | 5.63 | 33.9% | 0.96 | 5.15 | 5.71 | TAM | 114 | 116 | 143 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -6.8 | 3.96 | 5.98 | 45.8% | 0.98 | 3.94 | 4.94 | STL | 96 | 98 | 103 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 10.3 | 3.55 | 3.83 | 45.2% | 1.01 | 2.66 | WAS | 118 | 110 | 108 | |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.5 | 3.46 | 6.21 | 45.6% | 0.93 | 3.46 | 4.65 | SFO | 72 | 79 | 90 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.5 | 3.22 | 6.4 | 42.0% | 0.96 | 3.36 | 2.82 | BAL | 91 | 95 | 122 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.3 | 4.8 | 5.68 | 41.8% | 0.98 | 5.03 | 4.94 | OAK | 81 | 101 | 95 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.8 | 4.43 | 5.57 | 36.1% | 1.06 | 4.4 | 4.94 | TOR | 91 | 94 | 108 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -1.5 | 4.23 | 5.78 | 48.3% | 1.13 | 4.07 | 4.58 | BOS | 96 | 93 | 84 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0 | 4.1 | 5.47 | 42.7% | 1.01 | 3.65 | 5.74 | CIN | 94 | 101 | 114 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.6 | 3.86 | 6.58 | 46.1% | 0.93 | 3.61 | 4.55 | NYM | 115 | 103 | 123 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.48 | 6.33 | 47.8% | 0.94 | 3.67 | 2.87 | MIA | 94 | 103 | 69 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.6 | 5.32 | 5.47 | 46.0% | 0.94 | 5.47 | 6.27 | CHC | 91 | 112 | 116 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.9 | 4.56 | 5.75 | 50.5% | 1.09 | 4.94 | 4.77 | CLE | 100 | 105 | 140 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -7.8 | 4.37 | 5.46 | 45.0% | 0.98 | 4.44 | 4.73 | PIT | 88 | 92 | 86 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -1.9 | 3.51 | 5.79 | 54.5% | 0.89 | 3.26 | SEA | 115 | 109 | 144 | |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 5.8 | 4.43 | 5.52 | 43.2% | 1.01 | 4.29 | 3.95 | TEX | 78 | 94 | 102 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.3 | 4.34 | 5.99 | 0.322 | 1.06 | 4.41 | 5.52 | KAN | 78 | 83 | 66 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -3.4 | 4.76 | 5.45 | 0.501 | 1 | 4.71 | 4.71 | ATL | 92 | 94 | 113 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -0.6 | 4.89 | 6.11 | 0.436 | 1 | 4.88 | 3.75 | MIL | 94 | 96 | 93 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -7.4 | 3.71 | 5.61 | 0.443 | 1.13 | 3.61 | 3.83 | PHI | 73 | 84 | 94 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 7.9 | 4.72 | 5.3 | 0.534 | 0.89 | 4.21 | 4.73 | HOU | 125 | 124 | 153 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.91 | 0.573 | 0.89 | 4.16 | 4.64 | LOS | 123 | 109 | 170 |
Clayton Kershaw allowed a career high four HRs in his last start and has now allowed a career high 17 HRs this season. He still struck out 10 and has at least nine strikeouts in four of his last six starts. While there appear to be real issues at hand here, his 24.6 Hard-Soft% is still third best in the majors with a 5.3 Hard-Soft% that’s an improvement on last year. He’s still a fantasy point accumulator who goes deep into games. He’s got one of the best matchups today against the Rockies (16.0 K-BB% on the road, 17.3 K-BB% vs LHP, 18.9 K-BB% last seven days).
Corey Kluber has at least eight strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. He has a 38.2 K% and 19.5 SwStr% in four June starts since returning from the DL, over which he also has a 63.8 GB% and -10.4 Hard-Soft%. This may be the most dominant month I can ever remember seeing. The Twins represent a fairly neutral matchup in a run friendly environment, as they’ve been slipping lately.
Dinelson Lamet struck out 12 without a walk in his last start and has now struck out at least eight with two or fewer walks in three of his five starts to give him a 26.2 K-BB% overall. This guy was supposed to have control problems, but five of his nine walks have come in one start and that strikeout rate will forgive a few walks. When bats do make contact, the ball is leaving the yard (eight HRs, 23 Hard-Soft%, 32.2 GB%, 18.6% Barrels/BBE) and he is facing a hard hitting Detroit offense (27.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but they will strike out a bit and he gets them at home without a DH. Additionally, he has some massive splits with only two HRs and a 34.0 K-BB% against RHBs.
Jacob deGrom has allowed one ER over 17 innings over his last two starts, striking out just 12 of 63 batters (six walks), but with a 12.7 SwStr%, 55.6 GB% and -4.5 Hard-Soft%. I suspect that some of the contact has been intentional to save pitches and in an effort to throw more strikes, as walks have become an occasional issue for him this year (9.6 BB%). Velocity has held steady. He’s got one of the top run prevention spots on the board in San Francisco tonight even if it’s not a high strikeout one. Just look at the poor quality of contact the Giants have made at home (24.7 Hard%, 6.2 HR/FB) and against RHP (28.1 Hard%, 9.5 HR/FB).
Jacob Faria struck out 34.7% of batters at AAA this year and 29% through three major league starts, while issuing just four walks. He’s allowing some hard contact (88.5 mph aEV, 40% 95+ mph EV, 36 Hard%), but is striking out over 30% of RHBs, which is mostly what he’ll face today. The Orioles have a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Jon Lester has struck out 17 of his last 52 batters. He’s allowed six HRs over his last five starts and faces an offense with a 19.0 HR/FB vs LHP, but it’s still a favorable matchup in a pitcher’s park. His 26.9% 95+ mph EV is second on the board only to Dickey, while his 47.3 GB% and 26.1 Hard% are within a fraction of career rates.
Robbie Ray has the top strikeout rate (32%) of any qualified pitcher on today’s board, though he’s a bit behind a few guys in terms of SwStr%. His bat missing prowess over the last month rivals Kluber (37.4 K%, 15.5 SwStr%), though he can’t claim the same batted ball dominance (36.2 GB%, 32.4 Hard%, but also a 26.8 Soft%). His 44.3% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board for any qualified pitcher. Bad contact in a difficult park is always the issue with him, but he’s not in a bad spot against the Phillies tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.286 – 84.2% – 5.3) continues to see the strikeout rate drop, but remains propped up by a high strand rate and low HR rate. In a big park with a career 8.7 HR/FB, he may be able to remain proficient in that area, but not to this level. He does have the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.1%) on the slate.
Lance Lynn (.218 – 85.8% – 18.8) got it handed to him on the road, allowing four HRs in Baltimore to a predominantly RH lineup last time out, which is a bit of surprise since he has such large career platoon splits. He’s generally most proficient at home against lineups with lots of RHBs. Pittsburgh used to be that, but they’re more balanced currently and don’t strike out a lot. This will be just his third home start since April.
James Shields (.203 – 98.2% – 12.9) has increased his SwStr% in each start this season from a starting point of 9.6%, so that’s something positive.
Dylan Bundy (.265 – 78.7% – 10.2) has allowed a HR in nine straight games and while I’m optimistic about his strikeout rate eventually, he otherwise appears to be a mess right now and is having trouble getting ahead of batters.
Sam Gaviglio (.232 – 79.1% – 25.7)
Austin Bibens-Dirkx (.195 – 76.3% – 15.4)
Ben Lively (.295 – 83.3 – 8.6)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Johnny Cueto could be a perfectly fine fourth tier arm on some days, but we don’t need an expensive arm with his skill set this year. Consider Kershaw’s problem (17 HRs as well) in a more power suppressing park with only around 75% of the strikeouts (and a tougher matchup specifically today).
Lance McCullers returns from the DL to face a good offense, but with a park upgrade in Seattle. The concern is a workload limit as he did not have a rehab start and hasn’t pitched in over two weeks. While I might consider pushing the issue on a less talented slate, it’s just another risk we don’t need to take.
JC Ramirez has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters after his strikeout rate started strong in April before cratering in April and the start of June. He’s also walked seven in his last two starts and is facing a low strikeout offense.
Gerrit Cole is not missing enough bats to be fantasy relevant for more than $8K right now. His SwStr has been below 7% in three straight starts.
David Price has allowed seven HRs in five starts, going more than five innings and striking out more than four just twice. His 10.5 SwStr% is fine and even above his career rate, but there’s just so much talent on this board that he’s an unnecessary risk.
Joe Ross has only really had two or three really good starts this season and has struck out five or fewer in four of his last five.
Marco Estrada has struck out four or fewer in less than four innings with at least six ERs in three of his last four starts with a total of five HRs in those three starts. His SwStr has been below 9.5% in each of his last two starts.
Tyler Chatwood generates ground balls (57.6% this year) and even has a -1.9 Hard-Soft% with a league average strikeout rate on the road since last season, but still walks a lot of batters and faces the hottest offense in baseball tonight.
Homer Bailey has struck out 17 of 62 batters in three minor league rehab starts at three different levels, only allowing two runs in his last one at AAA and generating ground balls on more than 50% of contact in two of them. He returns to the majors having made eight starts since 2014 against a tough offense, but doesn’t really cost anything.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.3% | Road | 18.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 13.0% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.0% | 6.7% | Road | 15.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 4.4% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 9.8% | 7.1% | Road | 8.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 3.1% | Home | 31.8% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 5.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.4% | 6.1% | Home | 28.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 3.7% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.9% | 2.3% | Road | 5.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 2.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.8% | 5.7% | Home | 26.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 13.2% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 34.6% | 8.4% | Home | 31.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 2.2% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.4% | Road | 20.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.5% | 5.9% | Road | 20.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.3% | Road | 29.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.4% | 6.7% | Road | 21.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 5.3% | Home | 21.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.8% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.9% | 10.5% | Home | 18.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 20.1% | 5.9% | Home | 20.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.1% | Road | 18.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 14.6% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.5% | Home | 20.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.6% | Home | 21.0% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.5% | 6.4% | Road | 24.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 3.9% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 9.7% | 6.5% | Home | 9.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.0% | 8.7% | Road | 15.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.6% | 10.0% | Home | 21.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 12.8% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.6% | Road | 25.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 16.2% | 5.1% | Home | 15.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.8% | Road | 23.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.3% | Road | 13.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.8% | Home | 16.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 2.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.6% | Home | 27.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 15.1% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.6% | Home | 16.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.4% | 10.8% | Road | 19.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 24.2% | 8.5% | RH | 25.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.1% | 10.8% | RH | 22.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 27.5% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 9.2% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 7.7% | LH | 23.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.5% |
| Twins | Road | 21.0% | 8.9% | RH | 21.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 8.1% | RH | 22.6% | 6.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 4.7% |
| Angels | Road | 21.7% | 9.4% | LH | 18.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.5% | 9.6% | RH | 23.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 8.5% |
| Rays | Home | 24.4% | 9.8% | RH | 24.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 9.1% | RH | 19.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 6.7% | RH | 19.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 16.2% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.7% | 6.3% | RH | 22.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 5.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.5% | 8.5% | RH | 25.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 8.8% | LH | 21.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 9.8% | RH | 18.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.9% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.3% | 9.0% | RH | 19.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 8.2% | LH | 20.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 10.1% | LH | 20.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 9.6% | RH | 20.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 14.7% | 12.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.2% | 9.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.4% | 7.9% | RH | 23.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.9% |
| Royals | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | RH | 21.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.4% | 8.8% | RH | 24.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.6% | 6.9% | LH | 20.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Road | 18.4% | 8.7% | RH | 17.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.2% | RH | 23.3% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 13.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 2017 | 42.7% | 23.8% | 28.1% | Road | 32.2% | 18.5% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 14.3% | -7.2% |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | Rangers | L2 Years | 39.8% | 15.4% | 24.7% | 2017 | 39.8% | 15.4% | 24.7% | Road | 37.3% | 14.3% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 2017 | 31.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | Road | 36.7% | 4.8% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.8% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2017 | 29.6% | 19.1% | 5.3% | Home | 30.1% | 12.0% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 41.7% | 2.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.0% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 2017 | 32.7% | 13.0% | 11.1% | Home | 27.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 0.0% | -16.4% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 47.2% | 27.3% | 33.3% | 2017 | 47.2% | 27.3% | 33.3% | Road | 56.3% | 33.3% | 37.5% | L14 Days | 47.2% | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 2017 | 31.0% | 20.0% | 7.2% | Home | 35.4% | 17.0% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 21.4% | 22.2% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 35.6% | 24.2% | 22.0% | 2017 | 35.6% | 24.2% | 22.0% | Home | 32.1% | 25.0% | 28.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 35.7% | 15.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 2017 | 33.9% | 10.2% | 13.3% | Road | 32.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 2017 | 33.5% | 18.2% | 12.9% | Road | 31.6% | 13.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 10.0% | -2.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 2017 | Road | 25.6% | 0.0% | 11.6% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 2017 | 35.0% | 17.3% | 13.2% | Road | 34.9% | 15.5% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 6.7% | -4.5% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 36.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 2017 | 36.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | Home | 56.3% | 0.0% | 43.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.4% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 2017 | 31.8% | 12.9% | 3.2% | Home | 32.5% | 18.4% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 2017 | 28.7% | 5.3% | 8.8% | Home | 32.5% | 3.2% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | -4.8% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.0% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 2017 | 39.2% | 16.3% | 23.7% | Road | 33.5% | 16.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 11.1% | 29.6% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 18.3% | 13.5% | Home | 29.9% | 12.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 15.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 2017 | 35.0% | 18.7% | 20.2% | Home | 27.4% | 5.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 36.4% | 4.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 2017 | 26.1% | 13.6% | 4.4% | Road | 27.3% | 14.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 13.3% | 9.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 2017 | 27.6% | 25.0% | 15.5% | Home | 30.7% | 7.6% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 33.3% | 18.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 2017 | 38.6% | 16.7% | 23.8% | Road | 33.2% | 12.7% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 23.1% | 28.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 2017 | 31.5% | 18.8% | 13.2% | Home | 24.4% | 10.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 23.5% | 22.2% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 2017 | 25.8% | 17.1% | 3.1% | Road | 31.9% | 6.5% | 14.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Luis Cessa | Yankees | L2 Years | 33.1% | 20.2% | 17.6% | 2017 | 26.1% | 28.6% | 17.4% | Home | 39.1% | 26.8% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 2017 | 30.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | Road | 31.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 27.3% | 12.5% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.9% | 12.1% | 19.3% | 2017 | 35.8% | 11.7% | 23.7% | Road | 31.6% | 7.0% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 12.5% | 14.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 2017 | 28.2% | 16.5% | 1.5% | Home | 28.3% | 16.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 15.8% | -8.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.9% | 12.7% | 20.5% | 2017 | 41.3% | 12.5% | 22.4% | Home | 40.1% | 16.4% | 24.1% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 16.7% | 3.9% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.1% | 25.7% | 19.9% | 2017 | 33.1% | 25.7% | 19.9% | Home | 40.0% | 15.4% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 33.3% | 20.8% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2017 | 27.1% | 24.1% | 2.8% | Road | 24.4% | 11.1% | -1.9% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 22.2% | -8.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 28.0% | 12.7% | 5.6% | RH | 28.6% | 14.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 25.2% | 15.1% | -1.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.1% | 21.0% | 11.0% | RH | 32.4% | 18.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 25.9% | 17.0% | 4.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.5% | 18.0% | 26.3% | RH | 36.4% | 16.3% | 19.1% | L7Days | 33.0% | 15.4% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% | LH | 32.3% | 16.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.3% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 31.8% | 13.4% | 14.6% | RH | 33.6% | 13.9% | 17.5% | L7Days | 35.4% | 9.3% | 15.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.6% | 12.0% | 9.2% | RH | 31.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | L7Days | 36.6% | 16.4% | 23.2% |
| Angels | Road | 32.8% | 11.3% | 13.3% | LH | 30.2% | 9.2% | 13.7% | L7Days | 32.7% | 15.7% | 14.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.0% | 13.0% | 19.1% | RH | 42.6% | 12.5% | 27.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 13.8% | 14.1% |
| Rays | Home | 37.3% | 16.3% | 19.4% | RH | 36.5% | 19.1% | 19.6% | L7Days | 42.7% | 24.1% | 24.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 29.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | RH | 31.1% | 14.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 31.4% | 25.4% | 9.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 16.3% | 15.7% | RH | 31.5% | 15.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 34.1% | 20.0% | 14.9% |
| Giants | Home | 24.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | RH | 28.1% | 9.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.3% | 15.6% | RH | 30.5% | 15.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 36.2% | 23.2% | 16.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.7% | 11.0% | 17.2% | RH | 34.1% | 14.3% | 17.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 12.1% | 11.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.6% | 15.3% | 13.5% | LH | 31.0% | 13.4% | 14.6% | L7Days | 34.9% | 7.6% | 16.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.3% | 8.1% | 20.7% | RH | 36.1% | 10.5% | 18.6% | L7Days | 38.4% | 13.1% | 19.5% |
| Reds | Road | 29.3% | 14.0% | 9.9% | RH | 28.9% | 14.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 11.4% | 16.4% |
| Mets | Road | 36.9% | 16.7% | 18.9% | RH | 35.4% | 13.8% | 18.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.9% | 16.2% | 10.4% | LH | 29.3% | 19.0% | 5.4% | L7Days | 27.9% | 13.2% | 6.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.0% | 13.8% | 8.5% | LH | 29.5% | 19.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 21.6% | 12.4% |
| Indians | Home | 31.0% | 14.0% | 14.1% | RH | 34.1% | 13.2% | 18.1% | L7Days | 34.4% | 13.1% | 17.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 12.2% | 8.7% | RH | 30.3% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 30.3% | 18.9% | 9.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% | RH | 31.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | L7Days | 33.9% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.7% | 14.5% | 10.0% | RH | 33.5% | 16.0% | 13.7% | L7Days | 43.5% | 21.1% | 27.7% |
| Royals | Home | 31.9% | 9.0% | 12.7% | RH | 32.8% | 12.6% | 13.7% | L7Days | 32.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% |
| Braves | Home | 29.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | RH | 31.4% | 12.1% | 13.0% | L7Days | 28.2% | 21.4% | 4.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 17.1% | 11.4% | RH | 33.6% | 19.2% | 14.3% | L7Days | 30.5% | 21.7% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.6% | 10.5% | 7.2% | LH | 29.1% | 15.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 32.1% | 13.0% | 11.9% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.3% | 16.3% | RH | 32.9% | 15.9% | 15.8% | L7Days | 43.3% | 21.3% | 30.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.3% | 18.7% | 21.5% | RH | 35.2% | 15.8% | 20.1% | L7Days | 39.8% | 29.3% | 24.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.9% | 9.3% | 2.25 | 21.7% | 5.6% | 3.88 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 15.0% | 8.0% | 1.88 | 15.3% | 8.2% | 1.87 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 9.8% | 6.9% | 1.42 | 9.8% | 6.9% | 1.42 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 28.8% | 12.5% | 2.30 | 32.6% | 12.7% | 2.57 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 30.8% | 14.8% | 2.08 | 38.2% | 19.5% | 1.96 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.36 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.36 |
| David Price | BOS | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 34.6% | 14.2% | 2.44 | 34.6% | 14.2% | 2.44 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 17.3% | 10.1% | 1.71 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 1.50 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 19.6% | 8.6% | 2.28 | 17.1% | 6.6% | 2.59 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | ||||||
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.1% | 14.5% | 1.94 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 1.61 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 29.0% | 12.4% | 2.34 | 29.0% | 12.4% | 2.34 |
| James Shields | CHW | 20.2% | 10.3% | 1.96 | 12.0% | 11.6% | 1.03 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 19.4% | 10.5% | 1.85 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 1.83 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 19.9% | 9.5% | 2.09 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 1.96 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 21.1% | 10.2% | 2.07 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 1.84 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.94 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 1.99 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.0% | 11.1% | 2.25 | 24.8% | 10.5% | 2.36 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.32 | 7.1% | 3.0% | 2.37 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.1% | 10.1% | 1.50 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 1.68 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 23.2% | 9.5% | 2.44 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.34 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.6% | 12.5% | 2.29 | 33.3% | 14.0% | 2.38 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.39 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.87 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 26.1% | 12.1% | 2.16 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.95 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 17.5% | 9.0% | 1.94 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 14.0% | 7.8% | 1.79 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 1.64 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 32.0% | 13.8% | 2.32 | 37.4% | 15.5% | 2.41 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 15.7% | 6.2% | 2.53 | 14.5% | 6.1% | 2.38 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.01 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 2.06 |
Jacob deGrom may have a few less strikeouts in recent starts, but his SwStr% is fine.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 7.96 | 4.5 | -3.46 | 5.48 | -2.48 | 7.56 | -0.4 | 8.69 | 0.73 | 3.6 | 5.14 | 1.54 | 6.06 | 2.46 | 6.14 | 2.54 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 4.25 | 4.94 | 0.69 | 5.21 | 0.96 | 5.46 | 1.21 | 5.99 | 1.74 | 4.88 | 4.87 | -0.01 | 5.04 | 0.16 | 5.89 | 1.01 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 3.33 | 5.79 | 2.46 | 5.77 | 2.44 | 4.88 | 1.55 | 6.05 | 2.72 | 3.33 | 5.79 | 2.46 | 5.77 | 2.44 | 4.88 | 1.55 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.61 | 3.12 | 0.51 | 2.96 | 0.35 | 3.55 | 0.94 | 2.82 | 0.21 | 3.98 | 3.07 | -0.91 | 2.81 | -1.17 | 5.38 | 1.4 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.58 | 3.16 | -0.42 | 3.01 | -0.57 | 2.91 | -0.67 | 2.56 | -1.02 | 1.61 | 2.01 | 0.4 | 1.86 | 0.25 | 0.89 | -0.72 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 7.2 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 4.02 | -3.18 | 5.94 | -1.26 | 8.48 | 1.28 | 7.2 | 4.4 | -2.8 | 4.02 | -3.18 | 5.94 | -1.26 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.14 | 5.14 | 0 | 5.5 | 0.36 | 6.5 | 1.36 | 5.37 | 0.23 | 5.14 | 5.14 | 0 | 5.5 | 0.36 | 6.5 | 1.36 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 7.5 | 3.17 | -4.33 | 3.91 | -3.59 | 5.76 | -1.74 | 4.05 | -3.45 | 7.5 | 3.17 | -4.33 | 3.91 | -3.59 | 5.76 | -1.74 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 3.72 | 5.08 | 1.36 | 5.31 | 1.59 | 4.64 | 0.92 | 5.61 | 1.89 | 5.6 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 6.28 | 0.68 | 6.03 | 0.43 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.28 | 4.26 | -0.02 | 4.02 | -0.26 | 4.57 | 0.29 | 4.33 | 0.05 | 6.28 | 4.66 | -1.62 | 4.12 | -2.16 | 5.72 | -0.56 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | ||||||||||||||||
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.94 | 3.79 | -0.15 | 3.52 | -0.42 | 3.9 | -0.04 | 2.91 | -1.03 | 4.59 | 4.44 | -0.15 | 4.19 | -0.4 | 4.85 | 0.26 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 1.37 | 3.21 | 1.84 | 2.89 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 0.14 | 4.72 | 3.35 | 1.37 | 3.22 | 1.85 | 2.89 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 0.14 |
| James Shields | CHW | 2.42 | 5.18 | 2.76 | 5.55 | 3.13 | 5.38 | 2.96 | 5.30 | 2.88 | 4.76 | 4.94 | 0.18 | 5.05 | 0.29 | 5.43 | 0.67 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.27 | 4.5 | 2.23 | 4.69 | 2.42 | 3.23 | 0.96 | 3.71 | 1.44 | 2.2 | 5.07 | 2.87 | 5.14 | 2.94 | 3.51 | 1.31 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.59 | 4.3 | -0.29 | 4.2 | -0.39 | 4.51 | -0.08 | 4.06 | -0.53 | 6.23 | 4.55 | -1.68 | 4.79 | -1.44 | 5.14 | -1.09 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 5.98 | 4.13 | -1.85 | 4.15 | -1.83 | 4.85 | -1.13 | 5.48 | -0.50 | 6.58 | 4.19 | -2.39 | 4.34 | -2.24 | 4.49 | -2.09 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.42 | 4.04 | -0.38 | 3.83 | -0.59 | 4.44 | 0.02 | 4.16 | -0.26 | 3.94 | 3.96 | 0.02 | 3.79 | -0.15 | 4.66 | 0.72 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.83 | 3.89 | 0.06 | 3.7 | -0.13 | 3.67 | -0.16 | 3.15 | -0.68 | 5.27 | 3.96 | -1.31 | 4.07 | -1.2 | 4.75 | -0.52 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 5.06 | 5.28 | 0.22 | 5.19 | 0.13 | 6.64 | 1.58 | 8.15 | 3.09 | 4.5 | 5.22 | 0.72 | 5.08 | 0.58 | 7.31 | 2.81 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.56 | 5.23 | -1.33 | 5.05 | -1.51 | 5.41 | -1.15 | 7.02 | 0.46 | 4.34 | 4.86 | 0.52 | 4.54 | 0.2 | 4.21 | -0.13 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.33 | 4.43 | 1.1 | 4.61 | 1.28 | 5.31 | 1.98 | 5.31 | 1.98 | 5.04 | 4.73 | -0.31 | 4.98 | -0.06 | 6.38 | 1.34 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.58 | 3.06 | 0.48 | 2.74 | 0.16 | 2.93 | 0.35 | 2.32 | -0.26 | 3.12 | 2.57 | -0.55 | 2.03 | -1.09 | 2.16 | -0.96 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 7.36 | 4.54 | -2.82 | 4.32 | -3.04 | 6.14 | -1.22 | 5.74 | -1.62 | 9 | 3.95 | -5.05 | 4.14 | -4.86 | 5.14 | -3.86 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.98 | 3.8 | -1.18 | 4.05 | -0.93 | 3.9 | -1.08 | 6.58 | 1.60 | 9.67 | 4.16 | -5.51 | 4.31 | -5.36 | 5.38 | -4.29 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.42 | 4.72 | 0.3 | 4.52 | 0.1 | 4.21 | -0.21 | 5.11 | 0.69 | 6.75 | 5.16 | -1.59 | 5.04 | -1.71 | 4.95 | -1.8 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.91 | 5.36 | 0.45 | 5.35 | 0.44 | 5.71 | 0.8 | 6.54 | 1.63 | 5.64 | 4.85 | -0.79 | 5.2 | -0.44 | 4.66 | -0.98 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.87 | 3.63 | 0.76 | 3.59 | 0.72 | 3.42 | 0.55 | 2.83 | -0.04 | 1.3 | 2.74 | 1.44 | 2.93 | 1.63 | 2.39 | 1.09 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 3.43 | 4.71 | 1.28 | 4.46 | 1.03 | 5.83 | 2.4 | 6.04 | 2.61 | 3.9 | 4.93 | 1.03 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 2.3 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.08 | 4.58 | 0.5 | 4.04 | -0.04 | 4.83 | 0.75 | 3.59 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 4.16 | 1.51 | 3.8 | 1.15 | 4.13 | 1.48 |
Clayton Kershaw has a quality BABIP profile, generates lots of weak contact and has a career BABIP only 22 points higher. His 88.6 LOB% is what’s making up for a 19.1 HR/FB.
Dinelson Lamet has a 24.2 HR/FB and 52.6 LOB% that we can call small sample problems for now, but he is generating a lot of hard contact in the air.
Robbie Ray has an 83% strand rate, which I wouldn’t even be all that concerned about if his strikeout rate remains above 30%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.310 | 0.367 | 0.057 | 31.8% | 0.205 | 4.8% | 83.9% | 88.8 | 13.50% | 9.30% | 89 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | TEX | 0.287 | 0.195 | -0.092 | 39.8% | 0.183 | 10.3% | 88.9% | 86.5 | 9.70% | 7.50% | 93 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.304 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 42.7% | 0.18 | 14.3% | 92.8% | 84.9 | 3.30% | 2.70% | 91 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.279 | 0.248 | -0.031 | 46.2% | 0.198 | 11.2% | 83.7% | 85.9 | 7.90% | 5.30% | 267 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.308 | 0.303 | -0.005 | 48.1% | 0.185 | 11.1% | 82.1% | 86.6 | 5.60% | 3.50% | 162 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.295 | 0.273 | -0.022 | 40.0% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 90.6% | 88.1 | 13.90% | 11.40% | 36 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.314 | 0.234 | -0.08 | 36.9% | 0.214 | 14.3% | 86.3% | 84.9 | 11.90% | 8.00% | 84 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.297 | 0.294 | -0.003 | 32.2% | 0.119 | 0.0% | 80.3% | 88.9 | 18.60% | 10.30% | 59 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.265 | -0.05 | 31.5% | 0.216 | 14.1% | 86.6% | 87.8 | 7.90% | 5.90% | 277 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.305 | 0.283 | -0.022 | 47.0% | 0.201 | 5.7% | 87.1% | 85.9 | 8.50% | 6.30% | 281 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.285 | ||||||||||
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.316 | 0.312 | -0.004 | 46.1% | 0.216 | 13.3% | 77.8% | 87 | 5.60% | 3.40% | 234 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.296 | 0.300 | 0.004 | 42.0% | 0.28 | 20.0% | 86.0% | 88.5 | 6.00% | 3.90% | 50 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.282 | 0.203 | -0.079 | 33.3% | 0.175 | 9.7% | 80.9% | 86.9 | 9.50% | 6.40% | 63 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.303 | 0.286 | -0.017 | 36.0% | 0.198 | 11.4% | 83.1% | 86.5 | 3.10% | 2.30% | 261 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.290 | 0.310 | 0.02 | 45.7% | 0.214 | 7.5% | 86.6% | 87.7 | 6.50% | 4.70% | 245 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.296 | 0.359 | 0.063 | 38.0% | 0.241 | 8.3% | 83.0% | 86.6 | 6.70% | 4.90% | 163 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.320 | 0.301 | -0.019 | 40.8% | 0.264 | 8.8% | 85.6% | 87.4 | 8.10% | 5.80% | 283 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.284 | 0.315 | 0.031 | 47.3% | 0.193 | 3.7% | 84.3% | 85.6 | 4.80% | 3.20% | 249 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.289 | 0.296 | 0.007 | 50.9% | 0.211 | 0.0% | 89.4% | 86.6 | 6.90% | 5.30% | 58 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.289 | 0.360 | 0.071 | 49.5% | 0.216 | 3.3% | 89.3% | 88.1 | 7.60% | 5.60% | 210 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.293 | 0.218 | -0.075 | 42.4% | 0.171 | 7.1% | 78.8% | 87.3 | 7.50% | 4.90% | 213 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.292 | 0.277 | -0.015 | 63.0% | 0.185 | 2.9% | 88.6% | 85.5 | 4.60% | 2.90% | 194 |
| Luis Cessa | NYY | 0.284 | 0.333 | 0.049 | 43.5% | 0.261 | 0.0% | 94.3% | ||||
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.302 | 0.343 | 0.041 | 34.6% | 0.21 | 8.3% | 80.1% | 88 | 8.90% | 6.00% | 246 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.302 | 0.289 | -0.013 | 44.0% | 0.202 | 11.7% | 88.9% | 86.8 | 5.20% | 3.90% | 173 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.283 | 0.271 | -0.012 | 48.7% | 0.177 | 15.4% | 85.6% | 84.5 | 6.50% | 4.90% | 277 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 39.0% | 0.2 | 12.5% | 80.1% | 88.4 | 6.50% | 3.70% | 201 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.284 | 0.232 | -0.052 | 53.4% | 0.169 | 5.7% | 91.7% | 87.3 | 6.60% | 5.00% | 121 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.293 | 0.261 | -0.032 | 57.6% | 0.204 | 1.9% | 88.4% | 85 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 251 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) has a HR problem, but everything else appears to be in line. He’s going deep into games and striking out a lot of batters. His cost is actually down a bit from his normal standards on DraftKings and he’s in a great spot to pile up some points tonight even if a couple of balls leave the yard.
Value Tier Two
Dinelson Lamet (5t) has been thumped in two of his five starts, allowing at least one HR in all of them, but he’s shown immense upside, while only exhibiting control problems once. This could go disastrously wrong against a hard hitting Detroit lineup, but also has enough factors in his favor to go gloriously well at a low price. The problem with him on FanDuel, however, is that he’s only reached six innings (the workload required for a quality start) once.
Jacob Faria (5t) has been the real deal both in AAA and the majors this season. He has shown some issues with contact in the majors, but has no workload concerns as he’s pitched into the seventh in all three starts and has dominated RHBs. He’s not as cheap as most pitchers with his level of experience, but still costs less than $9K against a strikeout prone, predominantly RH lineup.
Value Tier Three
Corey Kluber (2) costs the same as Kershaw on DraftKings, and $2K less on FanDuel. I still believe Kershaw is the better pitcher in the long run, but Kluber is dominating in every aspect and on one of the greatest month long runs I’ve ever seen.
Jon Lester (3t) is a good pitcher in a favorable spot. Though his ceiling may not be as high as a lot of these guys, his cost is a bit lower than some with a high floor.
Jacob deGrom (3t) hasn’t consistently had the overall success of some of the other expensive pitchers today, but certainly is within range of the top pitchers when he’s on and may be in one of the top spots tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Robbie Ray (5t) costs as much as Kershaw and Kluber on DraftKings and it’s difficult to put him in that league due to the contact issues and difficult park.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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