Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, August 15th
Today’s keyword is “marginal”, as in the value of a whole lot of pitchers tonight. Another word might bland. There are a few to like and a few to hate, but mostly just a giant pile of…”meh” right in the middle. Not very encouraging, but much better than Monday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 1.8 | 4.73 | 5.12 | 28.4% | 1.11 | 5.15 | 6.29 | DET | 88 | 95 | 102 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.8 | 3.56 | 5.79 | 56.2% | 0.89 | 2.81 | 5.29 | CHW | 91 | 105 | 128 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 7.4 | 4.04 | 3.1 | 47.6% | 0.89 | 3.38 | BAL | 95 | 95 | 126 | |
| Anthony Banda | ARI | -5.4 | 4.07 | 5.07 | 35.9% | 1.13 | 4.47 | 4.31 | HOU | 128 | 121 | 80 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | -0.2 | 4.51 | 5.72 | 44.1% | 1.04 | 3.84 | 4.61 | CLE | 100 | 103 | 72 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.5 | 4.83 | 4.92 | 39.2% | 1.03 | 4.6 | 4.07 | TOR | 93 | 99 | 95 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -5.5 | 4 | 5.12 | 40.2% | 1.13 | 4.44 | 4.47 | ARI | 105 | 100 | 88 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -11.2 | 4.68 | 6. | 40.5% | 0.93 | 4.88 | 5.66 | KAN | 90 | 91 | 119 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.9 | 4.55 | 5.77 | 32.9% | 0.94 | 4.98 | 4.23 | SFO | 82 | 80 | 68 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.3 | 3.75 | 5.56 | 44.0% | 1.04 | 3.73 | 3.36 | MIN | 101 | 99 | 155 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -5.4 | 3.78 | 5.24 | 36.4% | 0.91 | 3.64 | 5.03 | PHI | 78 | 87 | 75 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1 | 4.1 | 5.83 | 46.7% | 1.01 | 3.68 | 4.27 | ANA | 86 | 86 | 99 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -2.4 | 4.14 | 5.95 | 49.9% | 1.02 | 3.89 | 4.68 | MIL | 91 | 93 | 111 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.6 | 3.45 | 6.24 | 45.7% | 1.01 | 3.36 | 2.57 | NYY | 114 | 113 | 103 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 7.2 | 4.34 | 5.49 | 40.3% | 0.93 | 4.71 | 3.96 | OAK | 109 | 103 | 94 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.7 | 3.83 | 6.51 | 34.1% | 1.11 | 4.11 | 3.55 | TEX | 107 | 98 | 124 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -3.9 | 4.85 | 5.63 | 56.1% | 1.39 | 4.13 | -0.02 | ATL | 91 | 99 | 75 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.2 | 3.73 | 5.86 | 49.8% | 0.96 | 3.37 | 4.77 | CIN | 93 | 99 | 129 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.3 | 4.2 | 6.01 | 57.9% | 0.96 | 3.56 | 5.86 | CHC | 104 | 95 | 108 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -3 | 3.34 | 6.74 | 40.6% | 0.94 | 3.68 | 3.53 | MIA | 93 | 96 | 106 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.9 | 4.49 | 5.94 | 32.2% | 1.03 | 4.73 | 4.79 | TAM | 96 | 102 | 23 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 2.2 | 4.07 | 5.37 | 48.8% | 0.91 | 4.35 | 1.09 | SDG | 90 | 88 | 94 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -0.1 | 5.04 | 5.79 | 40.6% | 0.89 | 5.29 | 5.88 | LOS | 119 | 109 | 100 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -1.5 | 4.11 | 5.99 | 54.3% | 1.13 | 3.95 | 3.69 | BOS | 93 | 91 | 85 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.4 | 3.82 | 6.65 | 0.423 | 1.13 | 3.99 | 3.93 | STL | 93 | 99 | 152 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -1.8 | 4.78 | 5.29 | 0.4 | 1.39 | 4.08 | 5.08 | COL | 88 | 96 | 55 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 2.4 | 4.15 | 5.67 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 3.78 | 4.75 | NYM | 108 | 101 | 102 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 2 | 4.33 | 5.24 | 0.427 | 1.01 | 4.11 | 4.97 | WAS | 114 | 110 | 107 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -5.1 | 4.4 | 5.53 | 0.487 | 0.89 | 4.32 | 4.25 | SEA | 108 | 99 | 105 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -1.6 | 4.41 | 5.76 | 0.479 | 1.02 | 4.04 | 5.69 | PIT | 86 | 86 | 60 |
Alex Wood may merit his own article, but at least much more than the five to ten minutes I have available to research and discuss his recent run. Up until about a month ago, the only thing missing from his Cy Young quality effort was the workload. While the results have been better last two times out (12 IP – 3 ER), he’s struck out a total of 19 over his last five starts, hasn’t reached a 50% ground ball rate in any of his last four and had a season high 45 Hard% last time out. Although fairly stable throughout his last three starts, his velocity has continued on a downward slope since May really. The good news is that he did have a 14.8 SwStr% last time out after his first time below 8% this season the start prior. For the season, his 24.8 95+ mph aEV is still best on the board, his 57.5 GB% is fourth among those with at least 110 innings pitched, his 19.5 K-BB% is 15th. He hosts the White Sox, who lose a DH, do not walk, and are down a couple of their bigger RH power bats from the start of the season.
Danny Salazar has struck out 36 of 97 batters in four starts since returning from the DL, at least eight in each start. He’s allowed just one HR over this span with a 19.2 Hard%, including not a single hard hit ball in his last start, but his walk rate has increased each time out, concluding with four more recently. He now has a 22.0 K-BB% for the season with a ridiculous 16.6 SwStr% that is best in the majors among those with at least 80 innings pitched. The concern is that his 88.4 mph aEV is highest on the board and he’s facing the hottest offense in the majors. Over the last week, the Twins have a 15.1 K% and 26 Hard-Soft%.
Dinelson Lamet has seen his strikeout rate drop a bit over the last month, which is not entirely unexpected considering where it came from. He’s walked three in each of his last two starts, completing six innings in neither of them, but the great news is that his hard hit rate hasn’t exceeded 25% in three starts (-5.6 Hard-Soft%) without a HR. That his 10.3% Barrels/BBE and 38.5% 95+ mph EV are still highest on the board really speaks to how hard he had been getting hit prior. Further great news is that he’s in one of the top spots on the slate, hosting the Phillies (15.5 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.9 HR/FB on the road, 2.8 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Jacob deGrom struck out nine of 23 Phillies through 6.2 shutout innings before being removed after getting drilled with a line drive. It appeared to be precautionary though. While he’s now failed to go seven innings in four of five starts, he’s gotten two outs in the seventh in three of those starts and has struck out eight or more in four straight and six of eight. His 21.7 K-BB% is seventh among qualifiers and while his 21 HRs is already a career high by five, his 86.1 mph aEV and 29.5% 95+ mph EV are quite respectable. The Yankees certainly aren’t an ideal opponent here for a pitcher who has had long ball issues this year (19.3 HR/FB at home), but they will strike out a bit (22.7% vs RHP).
Kyle Hendricks has a reasonable 14.1 K-BB% with league average ground ball (44.9 GB%) and hard hit rates (31.9%) in four starts back from the DL. The issue has been a workload that’s allowed him more than five innings and 100 pitches just once. While the Reds have a 20 HR/FB over the last week, he’s otherwise in as average a spot as you can find tonight.
Luis Castillo has struck out just eight of his last 54 batters, though it hasn’t been a swinging strike issue (above 11% in both starts) as much as a control one (eight walks). He’s a gas thrower who combines above average swing and miss stuff with a 57.9 GB% (at least 50% in all but one start) and an 85.4 mph aEV that’s limited barrels to 3.7% of batted balls. The Cubs can do some damage, but will strike out enough, so keeping them on the ground will be helpful, but the increase in walks are a concern.
Madison Bumgarner appears to be back in control. He’s gone exactly seven innings with seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts. While his contact management remains nothing spectacular, he’s in another large park tonight and aside from the HR he’ll allow to Stanton, there’s not much to worry about. The Marlins have a 3.3 Hard-Soft% against LHP and that number includes Stanton.
Mark Leiter came on in relief of Vince Velasquez fairly early last week and proceeded to strike out seven of the 19 Mets he faced. Five days earlier, he struck out nine of 15 Rockies at Coors in long relief. That’s 16 of his last 34 for those who don’t like to do math and a 28.7 K% over his last 27.1 innings, though he’s only had a double digit SwStr% in these last two outings. On a trip to San Diego (25.2 K% vs RHP), that’s enough to excite you without knowing much else, but his 85.1 mph aEV this season is encouraging. It looks like a sharp increase in splitters has been responsible for this, up over 20% in each of these last two outings, but just 16.5% for the year.
Sonny Gray has gone six innings with six strikeouts in each of his two Yankee starts, but has walked seven of 52 batters. A 56.3 GB% should serve him well in Yankee Stadium, but his 38.3 95+ mph EV is second highest on the board despite just an 85.7 mph aEV. There seems to be no in between. The Mets can be a tough little offense in this park. They haven’t struck out a lot this season, but have a 20.5 K-BB% to go with their 22.5 HR/FB over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.246 – 85.2% – 11.2) used to be a guy who struggled to get out of the fifth inning, but suddenly has gone at least seven innings in seven of 10. That’s something you can’t take away from him and makes me look silly each time I decline to use him, but while he’s increased his soft contact (21.6% is the highest of his career), which puts him at an 85 mph aEV, his peripherals are merely average (13.2 K-BB%). The Angels are below average and lose a DH, but sitting Pujols at this point may be a benefit and this is not an offense that strikes out a lot. His cost is a bit too elevated for me, but he doesn’t miss on either site by much. I believe in improvement, but don’t believe he’s one of the top pitchers in the league now.
Justin Verlander (.291 – 75.5% – 9.6) has been amazing over the last month, at least seven innings in four of five starts with a large increase in SwStr% and 28.5 K%. While his 2.3 Hard-Soft% over this span is also excellent, the concern is a 28.7 GB% as well transitioning to Texas tonight. The Rangers have a 23.7 K% vs RHP, but 17 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. He can certainly make a fade look stupid, but the risk/reward ratio is a concern here.
Mike Leake (.300 – 73% – 14.6) has a 16.9% unearned run rate. His 16.2 K% is not very useful against an offense that strikes out less than average. It’s not a terrible spot at Fenway, though the park does him no favors. He keeps the ball on the ground (55.7%) and the Red Sox don’t have a lot of power (10.3 HR/FB at home), which could make him useful if necessary for $6K on DraftKings, but he’s not going to pop off and win anyone a GPP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Dan Straily has a SwStr rate above 11% and an ERA below four with a SIERA and xFIP a bit separated, but his FIP and DRA in line. He’s in one of the best spots on the board hosting the Giants (6.2 HR/FB last seven days). What’s the problem? He’s completed six innings just eight times in 24 starts with more than four strikeouts just twice in his last 10. That said, players can probably feel comfortable with him in an SP2 role on DraftKings for just $6.5K in this spot. He just misses for me on FanDuel for $800 more.
Jason Hammel has been pitching just well enough recently to rise his stock enough to place him among the unexciting marginal group today. He’s here. He’s not expensive. He now has a double digit SwStr% and the A’s strike out nearly a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP, but he’ll allow hard contact in the air and they have power.
Ivan Nova has been incredibly consistent lately, give him that. Between five to seven innings with five or six strikeouts in six straight starts. That’s a major strikeout increase in a strikeout rate that’s gone from barely double digits at one point to league average over the last month. However, he’s also allowed 17 HRs in 12 starts since the beginning of June. His ground balls are down (44.3%) and his hard hit rate is up (35.8%) over this span. His 88.3 mph aEV is now tied for second highest on the board. While the Brewers will strike out more than a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP, they also have an 18 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. That said, the allure of so many strikeouts at a reduced cost nearly makes him worth the risk on DraftKings ($6.4K).
Rick Porcello has struck out seven of 23 Rays in his last start, but still allowed two more HRs and is now up to 18 HRs over his last 13 starts. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball (18.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Marco Estrada could pull off a big one here in a high strikeout spot against an ice cold offense (33.3% last seven days), but taking a look at the whole thing makes for a lot of risk. The Rays have power, while he combines a lot of walks with a lot of fly balls. He has gone seven innings in three straight, but the risk outweighs the reward for me here. If you’re playing 10 lineups though, he’s probably worth some exposure if you can project low ownership.
Zack Davies
Andrew Albers is unavailable on either site, who still don’t have a starting pitcher listed, though he’s currently the guy for Seattle on MLB.com.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.6% | Home | 19.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.3% | 7.3% | Home | 28.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Andrew Albers | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.1% | Home | 21.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 24.6% | 7.7% | Home | 22.0% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 11.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.3% | 4.4% | Home | 19.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 3.2% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.2% | 12.6% | Road | 21.5% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.7% | Road | 25.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.5% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.4% | 10.1% | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 6.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.1% | Home | 20.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.4% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 27.7% | 9.8% | Road | 29.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 37.7% | 13.2% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.6% | Home | 29.3% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.8% | Home | 25.3% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.4% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.4% | Road | 17.0% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.8% | 6.6% | Road | 23.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 6.7% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.1% | Road | 19.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.7% | 7.6% | Road | 25.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 5.4% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.6% | 8.4% | Home | 16.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.6% | Home | 22.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 23.7% | 10.4% | Road | 23.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.2% | 5.5% | Road | 26.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.9% | Home | 23.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 7.2% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.7% | 9.6% | Road | 22.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 14.9% | 7.4% | Road | 13.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 2.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.9% | 4.9% | Road | 16.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 2.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.6% | 4.1% | Home | 21.6% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 23.2% | 12.6% | Road | 30.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 16.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.3% | Home | 20.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.7% | 9.7% | Road | 22.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.7% | Road | 18.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 12.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.7% | 6.8% | Home | 19.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 7.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 8.8% | RH | 21.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 5.9% | LH | 21.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.9% | 6.0% | LH | 24.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 3.3% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 8.5% | LH | 17.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 9.4% | RH | 19.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.4% | 9.0% | LH | 21.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.4% | 9.6% | RH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.7% |
| Royals | Road | 20.9% | 6.4% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.2% |
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 8.1% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.0% | 10.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.7% |
| Angels | Road | 20.6% | 8.8% | LH | 19.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 11.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 8.6% | RH | 25.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 7.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.4% | 10.3% | RH | 22.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.5% | 9.3% | RH | 24.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.9% | 9.3% | RH | 23.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 11.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | LH | 18.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 14.6% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 8.3% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 14.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.5% | 10.0% | RH | 22.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | LH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Road | 25.2% | 8.7% | RH | 25.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Home | 24.5% | 8.4% | RH | 25.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.4% | RH | 22.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.7% | 9.2% | RH | 19.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 9.0% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 12.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.5% | 7.9% | LH | 23.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Road | 21.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 8.9% | LH | 21.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.3% | 8.5% | LH | 19.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 38.3% | 16.8% | 18.5% | 2017 | 38.7% | 16.7% | 14.7% | Home | 38.7% | 19.5% | 23.5% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2017 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 4.5% | Home | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 7.7% | 22.0% |
| Andrew Albers | Mariners | L2 Years | 41.3% | 26.3% | 25.4% | 2017 | Home | 43.5% | 16.7% | 26.1% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Anthony Banda | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 40.5% | 5.6% | 31.0% | 2017 | 40.5% | 5.6% | 31.0% | Home | 46.7% | 7.1% | 40.0% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.8% | 17.0% | 2017 | 36.4% | 12.2% | 17.5% | Home | 34.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 49.0% | 4.8% | 39.2% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 2017 | 33.1% | 12.2% | 13.2% | Road | 32.8% | 9.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 10.0% | 18.8% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 2017 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | Road | 29.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 15.0% | -2.4% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.3% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 2017 | 32.5% | 18.4% | 14.5% | Home | 31.4% | 15.6% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 27.8% | 16.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 2017 | 34.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | Home | 34.4% | 8.6% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 2017 | 26.8% | 17.1% | 11.3% | Road | 30.3% | 13.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 37.4% | 14.1% | 21.9% | 2017 | 37.4% | 14.1% | 21.9% | Home | 35.1% | 12.1% | 21.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.2% | 11.2% | 7.6% | Home | 32.0% | 12.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 0.0% | -5.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 34.0% | 16.1% | 16.2% | 2017 | 33.8% | 15.9% | 16.5% | Road | 36.9% | 18.6% | 23.3% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 21.4% | 26.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 33.9% | 15.7% | 13.2% | Road | 34.9% | 16.0% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 18.2% | -4.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 2017 | 30.8% | 8.6% | 13.6% | Road | 34.3% | 13.9% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 0.0% | 30.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 2017 | 35.3% | 9.6% | 17.9% | Road | 30.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 2017 | 29.4% | 14.0% | 5.0% | Home | 25.4% | 10.9% | -2.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.6% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2017 | 35.1% | 15.5% | 13.3% | Home | 29.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 15.4% | 8.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 29.0% | 18.4% | 8.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 18.4% | 8.0% | Road | 26.2% | 17.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 31.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 34.4% | 9.3% | 15.1% | Road | 32.3% | 13.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 8.3% | 13.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 2017 | 27.7% | 11.0% | 7.7% | Home | 29.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 15.3% | 5.9% | -5.0% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.9% | 20.0% | 5.4% | 2017 | 26.9% | 20.0% | 5.4% | Road | 25.3% | 22.2% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 66.7% | 18.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 2017 | 32.9% | 10.5% | 18.0% | Road | 32.1% | 10.3% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 13.6% | 23.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 2017 | 30.8% | 14.6% | 14.9% | Road | 34.2% | 9.5% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 14.3% | 2.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.5% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 2017 | 40.8% | 14.3% | 24.1% | Home | 34.6% | 9.1% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 21.4% | 6.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 2017 | 27.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | Road | 38.8% | 5.3% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 2017 | 28.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | Home | 29.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 2017 | 24.1% | 7.9% | -0.9% | Road | 28.4% | 10.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | -16.7% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 2017 | 33.6% | 18.8% | 16.7% | Road | 35.8% | 16.3% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 16.7% | 9.7% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 2017 | 29.5% | 13.0% | 10.2% | Home | 34.1% | 14.1% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 29.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 34.4% | 12.3% | 16.9% | RH | 40.0% | 11.5% | 24.5% | L7Days | 37.8% | 11.9% | 23.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.4% | 13.6% | 14.0% | LH | 29.2% | 13.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.9% | 13.9% | 15.5% | LH | 34.3% | 12.6% | 15.6% | L7Days | 36.5% | 14.5% | 19.0% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.1% | 15.6% | LH | 29.1% | 14.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 34.8% | 9.1% | 20.4% |
| Indians | Road | 34.8% | 11.7% | 18.5% | RH | 33.7% | 12.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 31.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.7% | 14.3% | 10.1% | LH | 30.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 28.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.9% | 16.1% | 23.4% | RH | 35.1% | 14.7% | 18.0% | L7Days | 35.4% | 15.2% | 19.2% |
| Royals | Road | 32.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | RH | 31.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.8% | 13.0% |
| Giants | Road | 30.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | RH | 28.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 12.1% | 17.0% | RH | 33.3% | 12.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 38.8% | 20.3% | 26.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | RH | 30.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Angels | Road | 32.6% | 11.0% | 13.4% | LH | 30.1% | 9.5% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.7% | 18.5% | 19.0% | RH | 34.1% | 18.6% | 15.5% | L7Days | 42.0% | 13.6% | 26.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.1% | 19.3% | 9.6% | RH | 31.2% | 16.6% | 12.2% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.2% | 9.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.2% | 14.7% | 17.3% | RH | 33.7% | 14.4% | 17.7% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.0% | 20.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.3% | 17.3% | 18.2% | RH | 34.4% | 17.6% | 15.7% | L7Days | 33.6% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Braves | Road | 31.4% | 12.2% | 13.4% | LH | 29.6% | 15.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 30.1% | 7.5% | 13.3% |
| Reds | Road | 30.6% | 13.9% | 11.1% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.8% | 20.9% | 14.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.9% | 17.2% | 14.7% | RH | 31.2% | 15.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.3% | 15.2% | 9.9% | LH | 26.8% | 13.8% | 3.3% | L7Days | 25.9% | 13.6% | 5.3% |
| Rays | Road | 32.4% | 16.5% | 12.5% | RH | 34.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| Padres | Home | 29.1% | 12.6% | 7.0% | RH | 29.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 36.1% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.8% | 16.8% | 21.2% | RH | 36.0% | 15.5% | 20.6% | L7Days | 37.4% | 14.5% | 23.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.1% | 10.3% | 17.5% | RH | 33.9% | 11.1% | 16.1% | L7Days | 34.2% | 14.0% | 18.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.5% | 13.3% | 14.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 36.2% | 18.4% | 22.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.6% | 16.1% | 13.6% | LH | 33.0% | 16.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.3% | 3.3% |
| Mets | Road | 36.3% | 16.0% | 19.2% | RH | 34.9% | 13.6% | 17.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.1% | 14.8% | 15.6% | LH | 31.4% | 15.6% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.3% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 12.3% | 10.5% | LH | 30.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 29.7% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.1% | 10.4% | RH | 29.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.35 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 26.4% | 12.6% | 2.10 | 15.1% | 9.9% | 1.53 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | ||||||
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 24.6% | 10.7% | 2.30 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 2.30 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 13.5% | 5.2% | 2.60 | 12.1% | 6.0% | 2.02 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 19.6% | 9.5% | 2.06 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 1.90 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 30.3% | 12.3% | 2.46 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 2.47 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 12.8% | 8.6% | 1.49 | 12.2% | 8.0% | 1.53 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 21.6% | 11.4% | 1.89 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 1.54 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 32.7% | 16.6% | 1.97 | 37.1% | 18.6% | 1.99 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 29.1% | 12.9% | 2.26 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 2.19 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.47 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 2.62 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.3% | 8.3% | 1.84 | 20.8% | 11.3% | 1.84 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 29.2% | 13.9% | 2.10 | 29.9% | 13.3% | 2.25 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.77 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 1.78 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 | 28.5% | 12.6% | 2.26 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.6% | 7.0% | 2.09 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.0% | 7.9% | 2.53 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.11 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 23.7% | 11.8% | 2.01 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 1.78 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.49 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 2.72 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 23.8% | 11.4% | 2.09 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.96 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 22.7% | 8.0% | 2.84 | 36.2% | 16.1% | 2.25 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 12.7% | 6.6% | 1.92 | 12.3% | 6.2% | 1.98 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.98 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 1.99 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.27 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.64 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 23.2% | 11.9% | 1.95 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 2.07 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 23.5% | 12.3% | 1.91 | 25.5% | 15.4% | 1.66 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 2.21 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.3% | 7.8% | 2.47 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 2.21 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.4% | 7.2% | 2.14 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 2.12 |
Mark Leiter has a SwStr rate above 17% in each of his last two outings (9.1 innings – 16 strikeouts).
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 5.4 | 5.04 | -0.36 | 5.68 | 0.28 | 6.38 | 0.98 | 7.03 | 1.63 | 4.09 | 6.29 | 2.2 | 6.35 | 2.26 | 6.5 | 2.41 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.37 | 3.32 | 0.95 | 3.04 | 0.67 | 2.67 | 0.3 | 3.02 | 0.65 | 4.25 | 4.76 | 0.51 | 4.34 | 0.09 | 4.42 | 0.17 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | ||||||||||||||||
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 4.6 | 4.06 | -0.54 | 4.48 | -0.12 | 3.26 | -1.34 | 4.25 | -0.35 | 4.6 | 4.07 | -0.53 | 4.48 | -0.12 | 3.26 | -1.34 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 6.77 | 5.02 | -1.75 | 4.99 | -1.78 | 4.74 | -2.03 | 7.00 | 0.23 | 4.02 | 5.02 | 1 | 5.01 | 0.99 | 4.06 | 0.04 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.69 | 5.19 | 0.5 | 5.08 | 0.39 | 4.87 | 0.18 | 4.28 | -0.41 | 4.39 | 4.49 | 0.1 | 4.56 | 0.17 | 4.37 | -0.02 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 3.07 | 3.83 | 0.76 | 3.9 | 0.83 | 2.9 | -0.17 | 3.92 | 0.85 | 4.1 | 3.7 | -0.4 | 3.97 | -0.13 | 3.78 | -0.32 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 5.29 | 5.53 | 0.24 | 5.64 | 0.35 | 6.52 | 1.23 | 7.76 | 2.47 | 5.46 | 5.78 | 0.32 | 6.04 | 0.58 | 6.96 | 1.5 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.74 | 4.35 | 0.61 | 4.64 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 0.36 | 3.84 | 0.10 | 5.47 | 4.84 | -0.63 | 5.01 | -0.46 | 3.86 | -1.61 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.15 | 3.5 | -0.65 | 3.33 | -0.82 | 3.72 | -0.43 | 3.11 | -1.04 | 1.42 | 2.92 | 1.5 | 2.83 | 1.41 | 1.87 | 0.45 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5 | 3.78 | -1.22 | 4.13 | -0.87 | 4.19 | -0.81 | 3.78 | -1.22 | 3.62 | 4.29 | 0.67 | 4.32 | 0.7 | 3.17 | -0.45 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.59 | 4.39 | 1.8 | 4.26 | 1.67 | 3.95 | 1.36 | 3.54 | 0.95 | 2.28 | 4.36 | 2.08 | 4.45 | 2.17 | 3.46 | 1.18 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.87 | 4.38 | 0.51 | 4.07 | 0.2 | 4.34 | 0.47 | 4.91 | 1.04 | 6.67 | 3.91 | -2.76 | 3.71 | -2.96 | 5.29 | -1.38 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.21 | 3.44 | 0.23 | 3.3 | 0.09 | 3.53 | 0.32 | 2.85 | -0.36 | 2.23 | 3.21 | 0.98 | 3.45 | 1.22 | 2.74 | 0.51 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.68 | 4.71 | 0.03 | 4.98 | 0.3 | 4.11 | -0.57 | 4.26 | -0.42 | 3.56 | 4.19 | 0.63 | 4.16 | 0.6 | 2.71 | -0.85 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.97 | 4.58 | 0.61 | 4.71 | 0.74 | 4.07 | 0.1 | 3.76 | -0.21 | 1.8 | 3.62 | 1.82 | 3.95 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 1.45 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.7 | 4.85 | 1.15 | 4.72 | 1.02 | 4.76 | 1.06 | 5.02 | 1.32 | 3.14 | 3.55 | 0.41 | 3.58 | 0.44 | 4.81 | 1.67 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 4.01 | 0.31 | 4.21 | 0.51 | 4.55 | 0.85 | 2.57 | 4.16 | 1.59 | 3.83 | 1.26 | 3.38 | 0.81 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.73 | 4.2 | 0.47 | 4.02 | 0.29 | 4.51 | 0.78 | 4.34 | 0.61 | 4.1 | 4.64 | 0.54 | 4.36 | 0.26 | 4.42 | 0.32 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.71 | 3.78 | 1.07 | 3.88 | 1.17 | 3.24 | 0.53 | 3.38 | 0.67 | 2.52 | 4.02 | 1.5 | 4.17 | 1.65 | 3.7 | 1.18 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.85 | 4.48 | -0.37 | 4.84 | -0.01 | 4.35 | -0.5 | 6.65 | 1.80 | 3.93 | 5.33 | 1.4 | 5.77 | 1.84 | 4.39 | 0.46 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 4.08 | 4.07 | -0.01 | 4.22 | 0.14 | 4.93 | 0.85 | 3.77 | -0.31 | 4.09 | 1.88 | -2.21 | 1.78 | -2.31 | 3.5 | -0.59 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.85 | 5.53 | 0.68 | 5.7 | 0.85 | 5.11 | 0.26 | 5.52 | 0.67 | 4.03 | 5.7 | 1.67 | 6.1 | 2.07 | 4.93 | 0.9 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 3.48 | 4.18 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 0.42 | 3.99 | 0.51 | 4.71 | 1.23 | 5.04 | 4.05 | -0.99 | 3.91 | -1.13 | 3.98 | -1.06 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.63 | 4.1 | -0.53 | 4.29 | -0.34 | 4.4 | -0.23 | 4.86 | 0.23 | 4.18 | 3.93 | -0.25 | 4.17 | -0.01 | 5.64 | 1.46 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.45 | 4.78 | 0.33 | 4.71 | 0.26 | 4.28 | -0.17 | 5.37 | 0.92 | 4.67 | 5.05 | 0.38 | 5.33 | 0.66 | 5.21 | 0.54 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 3.39 | 3.8 | 0.41 | 3.38 | -0.01 | 3.19 | -0.2 | 3.06 | -0.33 | 2.22 | 3.79 | 1.57 | 3.3 | 1.08 | 2.27 | 0.05 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 3.63 | 4.29 | 0.66 | 4.11 | 0.48 | 3.39 | -0.24 | 3.98 | 0.35 | 2.61 | 4.97 | 2.36 | 4.42 | 1.81 | 3.04 | 0.43 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.19 | 4.98 | -0.21 | 4.57 | -0.62 | 5.09 | -0.1 | 5.27 | 0.08 | 5.79 | 5.14 | -0.65 | 4.73 | -1.06 | 5.25 | -0.54 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.4 | 4.82 | 0.42 | 4.6 | 0.2 | 4.52 | 0.12 | 4.85 | 0.45 | 2.36 | 4.68 | 2.32 | 4.32 | 1.96 | 2.93 | 0.57 |
Alex Wood has a 9.0 HR/FB. It’s unlikely the current version of him can sustain this. Four of his six HRs have come over his last four starts as a matter of fact.
Dinelson Lamet has just a .264 BABIP, .167 over his last three starts, in which he’s managed contact incredibly well, though it’s certainly not sustainable at that level. He also still has just a 61.5 LOB% for the season.
Kyle Hendricks has an 87.8 LOB% since returning from the DL (four starts).
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.289 | 0.215 | -0.074 | 26.7% | 0.133 | 20.0% | 84.8% | 87.2 | 11.30% | 32.70% | 150 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.271 | -0.009 | 57.5% | 0.192 | 11.9% | 84.4% | 84.8 | 3.40% | 24.80% | 290 |
| Andrew Albers | SEA | 0.279 | ||||||||||
| Anthony Banda | ARI | 0.294 | 0.317 | 0.023 | 35.9% | 0.179 | 0.0% | 79.7% | 84.4 | 2.40% | 28.60% | 42 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.344 | 0.046 | 43.7% | 0.201 | 10.6% | 93.2% | 87.8 | 6.30% | 37.80% | 349 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.293 | 0.009 | 42.2% | 0.187 | 13.3% | 85.7% | 85.5 | 5.10% | 30.10% | 236 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.300 | 0.005 | 39.8% | 0.194 | 10.5% | 81.1% | 86.5 | 5.20% | 28.80% | 212 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.231 | -0.061 | 37.9% | 0.198 | 6.1% | 86.7% | 87.1 | 10.30% | 33.30% | 117 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.293 | 0.272 | -0.021 | 34.4% | 0.188 | 15.0% | 86.3% | 85.8 | 6.60% | 28.40% | 394 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.303 | 0.341 | 0.038 | 38.0% | 0.255 | 11.4% | 77.8% | 88.4 | 7.70% | 29.40% | 194 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.307 | 0.264 | -0.043 | 36.4% | 0.185 | 7.7% | 82.7% | 88.3 | 10.30% | 38.50% | 174 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.293 | 0.246 | -0.047 | 45.5% | 0.184 | 9.8% | 86.6% | 85 | 5.20% | 28.00% | 407 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.294 | -0.014 | 47.4% | 0.237 | 8.0% | 91.5% | 88.3 | 6.10% | 37.00% | 492 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.290 | -0.03 | 45.1% | 0.197 | 10.4% | 78.8% | 86.1 | 6.50% | 29.50% | 386 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.302 | 0.003 | 38.4% | 0.204 | 8.0% | 87.9% | 87.7 | 6.80% | 34.10% | 425 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.291 | -0.018 | 33.4% | 0.24 | 10.2% | 85.8% | 87.5 | 7.20% | 35.60% | 419 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.302 | 0.287 | -0.015 | 56.1% | 0.163 | 12.1% | 90.5% | 84.7 | 4.80% | 32.90% | 398 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.278 | -0.005 | 49.4% | 0.214 | 11.3% | 88.0% | 85.3 | 4.80% | 31.50% | 248 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.255 | -0.038 | 57.9% | 0.113 | 8.2% | 83.0% | 85.4 | 3.70% | 30.20% | 162 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.265 | -0.052 | 41.8% | 0.185 | 10.7% | 88.3% | 86.4 | 6.30% | 31.80% | 192 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 30.8% | 0.197 | 15.2% | 80.7% | 87.1 | 7.70% | 32.80% | 390 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.297 | 0.246 | -0.051 | 48.8% | 0.202 | 5.0% | 87.8% | 85.1 | 6.90% | 31.50% | 130 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.294 | 0.006 | 39.4% | 0.194 | 7.8% | 90.6% | 87.8 | 7.40% | 35.50% | 377 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.300 | 0.006 | 55.7% | 0.213 | 4.9% | 90.4% | 87.3 | 5.10% | 36.10% | 452 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.305 | 0.328 | 0.023 | 38.2% | 0.212 | 10.2% | 87.4% | 88.1 | 8.50% | 35.10% | 485 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.302 | 0.01 | 40.0% | 0.238 | 5.2% | 83.3% | 87.7 | 5.50% | 34.50% | 165 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 0.290 | 0.280 | -0.01 | 56.3% | 0.205 | 4.3% | 85.5% | 85.7 | 5.50% | 38.30% | 308 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.285 | 0.330 | 0.045 | 42.3% | 0.234 | 7.9% | 87.9% | 86.3 | 3.60% | 33.00% | 112 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.328 | 0.013 | 50.9% | 0.232 | 8.3% | 90.9% | 87.1 | 6.30% | 35.70% | 378 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.304 | 0.004 | 48.4% | 0.221 | 9.2% | 89.7% | 86 | 4.90% | 31.30% | 451 |
Luis Castillo has an unsustainable 11.3 LD%, but it has happened and is why his BABIP is so low.
Mark Leiter has a BABIP that’s a bit fluky. Though the aEV is low, there are really no other strong points in the profile. He’s not even at 50 innings on the season yet though.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Mark Leiter has struck out 16 of his last 34 batters, which needs to be repeated because he’s in San Diego at a cost below $7K tonight. While we normally don’t like to jump to conclusions based on such small sample sizes, we’ve identified a possible cause (more splitters) as well as a great matchup at a low price. The point is, he can cut that strikeout rate in half and still be useful here with five to seven strikeouts. If he goes six innings with eight….cha-ching!
Dinelson Lamet (2t) has struggled to get deep into games on a consistent basis, while his strikeout rate has dropped slightly with his walk rate rising. What has improved significantly is his contact management, which had been so bad, you questioned his spot in the rotation despite a near 30% strikeout rate. He’s in one of the top spots at home against the Phillies at $8.5K or less.
Value Tier Two
Alex Wood (2t) still deserves some credit for what he’s done so far. While there are concerning trends in his profile over the last month, his SwStr% did bounce back in a major way last time out, he costs $9.6K on either site and is in a favorable spot hosting the White Sox.
Jacob deGrom (1) loses a bit in a difficult matchup, but has the highest strikeout and swinging strike rates among qualified pitchers today and should be able to accumulate tonight and keep his floor fairly high.
Value Tier Three
Danny Salazar (2t) has been dominant since returning from the DL, both in terms of strikeouts and contact management, though walks have been becoming an issue again. He’s one of five pitchers costing $11.5K or more on DraftKings tonight ($2.7K less on FanDuel) and the concern is his tendency towards hard contact in the past, while the Twins have been on fire. It’s not a favorable spot, but he’s certainly a pitcher players should strongly consider having some exposure to.
Madison Bumgarner (2t) appears to have his groove back. He’s been very good, but the cost is exceptional. It’s still a cost he may be able to cover in a decent spot if he pitches around Stanton.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kyle Hendricks has been a bit better than average since returning and has an average cost in an average spot tonight. This is a spot where you’ll certainly want to watch for weather, lineups, umpires, etc… He’s right on the cusp where any information that pushes him in one direction or the other could determine his usefulness tonight. He’s been better since returning, though still not great.
Luis Castillo still has quite a bit of upside at a reasonable cost and while the Cubs will strike out, they take a lot of walks too, which might be a concern considering his lack of control recently. His ability to keep the ball on the ground could limit the damage in that case.
Sonny Gray is going to be interesting tonight because I’m not sure what to expect. He’s been missing a lot of bats and the Mets have been swinging and missing more recently. He generates a lot of ground balls, but the Mets generate a lot of good contact against ground ball pitchers (125 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference). He has a low exit velocity overall, but a lot of contact with a high exit velocity too and is making his first home start for the Yankees. Adrenaline could take over and he could pitch a gem, but there more uncertainty here than I might be comfortable with.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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