Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, July 10th
All 15 games are on the main slate tonight, which gives us 30 pitchers to go through here. Some are unknowns, including two who are making their major league debuts against each other. I wonder when that last happened. There are some big arms on this board too (maybe not all usable ones) and hopefully some value below them, but this might be another tough one.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | -0.6 | 5.18 | 5.1 | 46.4% | 1.04 | 5.06 | 5.27 | Royals | 77 | 78 | 88 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -8.2 | 5.14 | 5.6 | 45.3% | 1.04 | 5.33 | 5.56 | Yankees | 107 | 111 | 132 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | -5.9 | 5.25 | 5.0 | 52.3% | 0.96 | 4.10 | 6.62 | Cardinals | 97 | 96 | 117 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -3.4 | 4.81 | 4.8 | 36.9% | 0.91 | 4.34 | 5.09 | Dodgers | 107 | 98 | 113 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 2.8 | 3.70 | 4.8 | 51.1% | 0.92 | 2.92 | 1.98 | Mariners | 107 | 106 | 104 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 5.4 | 4.28 | 5.0 | 46.7% | 1.12 | 4.18 | 2.92 | Rangers | 83 | 90 | 63 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 4.9 | 4.68 | 5.4 | 33.4% | 1.04 | 4.92 | 4.58 | Twins | 96 | 94 | 88 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.83 | 5.4 | 37.6% | 0.97 | 4.85 | 5.12 | Pirates | 100 | 92 | 89 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 7.2 | 4.53 | 5.5 | 46.0% | 0.90 | 4.67 | 3.58 | Marlins | 85 | 91 | 132 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -5.1 | 4.03 | 5.5 | 44.6% | 0.97 | 4.15 | 4.29 | Nationals | 90 | 96 | 117 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | -6.3 | 4.19 | 6.0 | 43.0% | 0.91 | 4.93 | 5.64 | Cubs | 101 | 108 | 104 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 10 | 4.05 | 5.9 | 43.6% | 0.91 | 3.92 | 5.56 | Giants | 108 | 88 | 53 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.8 | 4.66 | 5.7 | 39.1% | 0.99 | 4.98 | 3.90 | Blue Jays | 92 | 100 | 106 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 3.2 | 3.48 | 6.5 | 31.6% | 0.89 | 3.95 | 2.96 | Athletics | 118 | 109 | 128 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -2.9 | 3.74 | 6.0 | 61.7% | 0.99 | 3.77 | 4.62 | Braves | 94 | 96 | 99 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.5 | 3.60 | 5.9 | 47.3% | 1.04 | 3.91 | Orioles | 90 | 82 | 84 | |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 0.1 | 3.89 | 4.7 | 44.5% | 0.94 | 3.90 | 4.47 | Tigers | 82 | 82 | 96 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.9 | 4.66 | 5.3 | 35.8% | 0.94 | 4.79 | 3.75 | Rays | 107 | 105 | 125 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.1 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 52.5% | 0.92 | 4.00 | 3.82 | Angels | 97 | 105 | 59 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | -1.7 | 3.97 | 6.4 | 50.1% | 0.96 | 4.14 | 5.98 | White Sox | 94 | 94 | 93 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.16 | 5.5 | 55.9% | 0.90 | 3.32 | 4.16 | Brewers | 93 | 96 | 96 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 1.6 | 3.77 | 5.8 | 50.3% | 1.35 | 3.65 | 3.07 | Rockies | 85 | 93 | 91 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.58 | 5.2 | 35.8% | 0.91 | 3.83 | 2.45 | Padres | 95 | 87 | 75 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -1.1 | 4.72 | 5.4 | 47.9% | 1.10 | 4.60 | 3.40 | Indians | 122 | 104 | 75 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 2.4 | 4.24 | 5.9 | 44.9% | 0.89 | 4.58 | 5.98 | Astros | 109 | 122 | 134 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 6.6 | 3.71 | 6.0 | 46.2% | 1.10 | 3.14 | 2.89 | Reds | 98 | 98 | 108 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -0.6 | 4.11 | 5.7 | 42.3% | 1.35 | 4.08 | 2.93 | Diamondbacks | 86 | 104 | 110 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 2.6 | 5.26 | 5.3 | 44.6% | 1.12 | 5.20 | 3.25 | Red Sox | 125 | 120 | 161 |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | -9.5 | 0.91 | Mets | 77 | 94 | 69 | |||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets | -5.2 | 0.91 | Phillies | 88 | 94 | 85 |
Eric Lauer has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts. Despite the drop in strikeout rate over the last month, his SwStr% is actually up two points to league average. He’s reached 95 pitches in three of his last four and seems to manage contact decently from his Statcast numbers. The Dodgers are a tough opponent, but a bit less proficient against LHP and the park favors pitching.
Garrett Richards has pitched into the sixth inning with two ERs or less and at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts. The caveat here is that he just recently returned from a two week DL stint with the other start lasting just two innings against the Mariners. This will actually be the third straight time he’s facing the Mariners. On the season, he’s allowed four ERs in 14 innings against them, striking out 18 of 53 batters. Quite the accomplishment considering their 20.2 K% and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP this season. Despite the 10.6 BB% on the season, he’s walked just two Mariners, who have just a 6.9 BB% vs RHP. The one concern in his numbers is a 90.2 mph aEV that’s second worst on the board, though he still has a top 10 xwOBA today (.318).
Jeremy Hellickson was lit up by the Marlins for nine runs in four innings last time out and has allowed 12 in 8.2 innings since returning from the DL. There was an announced illness prior to his last start though because how else do you surrender two HRs to the Marlins? Even with that, his overall numbers for the season are still fine and he appears to be in a favorable spot in Pittsburgh. While they lack power, the Pirates don’t strike out much though (19.7% vs RHP).
Jhoulys Chacin has a 22.5 K% over his last 11 starts. Although he hasn’t struck out more than seven all season, he’s had at least five in nine of those last 11. He also has just a 5.0 HR/FB over this span with a SIERA and xFIP closer to five than four (9.5 BB%), but this is a pitcher with a fairly extreme platoon split who gets a major park upgrade tonight. There’s just one Miami LHB with power.
Joe Musgrove is off a short DL stint due to a finger issue. He missed less than two weeks, which should minimize any workload effects, having last thrown seven shutout innings at the Padres. He’s struck out at least five in six of his seven starts, but not more than six since his first. That’s a pretty tight league average range. He’s been one of the top contact managers on the board. Only two pitchers with more than six starts exceed his .295 xwOBA or his 86.5 mph aEV or his 4.7% Barrels/BBE (though they aren’t the same pitchers in any of those cases). I’m not sure what kind of matchup the Nationals are though, which makes him tough to evaluate. The peripherals call them a tough one (11.5 K-BB%, 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but the results are a bit less concerning (90 wRC+ on the road, 96 wRC+ vs RHP)
Jose Quintana has allowed no more than two runs in three of his last five starts with a high of four, yet still has a 4.28 ERA over that period with six HRs, 12 walks and just 17 strikeouts (121 BF). That’s a 4.1 K-BB% and 20.0 HR/FB with a 41.8 Hard%. Why the endorsement then? For one, he’s in a great park tonight. The Giants have a sub-12 HR/FB at home and vs LHP with an 88 wRC+ against southpaws. They have a 53 wRC+ and 4.5 HR/FB over the last week.
Justin Verlander reached double digit strikeouts for the fourth time this year in a bounce back start (nine ERs over previous two). He’s failed to complete six innings just twice (once by a single out) and has pitched into the seventh in more than half his starts. His 31.8 K% is barely the top mark on the board. His .243 xwOBA is best on the board by nearly 30 points. While he’s facing a tough Oakland lineup, he does so in the most negative run environment on the board and perhaps in baseball.
Marcus Stroman looked back in his first two starts in after returning from the DL, but then walked four Mets, struck out just two and allowed six earned runs with a 53.3 GB% that was actually his third lowest mark of the season. Can we call that a blip? We can hope, though his early season work does make it more of a concern. Of course, you know, if he’s right, it’s an elite ground ball rate with a league average strikeout rate. Even if he’s not, you may get something close to that, but the contact management is never ideal and a complete disaster when he’s off. Against the Braves, strikeout expectations may be lowered (20.3% vs RHP), but they don’t have a lot of power (10.1 HR/FB at home, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Mike Leake struggled against the Angels in his last start, but without a HR, one walk and a .500 BABIP. He did have a 40+ Hard-Soft%. Hard contact has been a major issue this season (90.1 mph aEV is third worst on the board), but it had been better recently. He’d been sitting on a .400+ xwOBA through May. That last start snapped a string of eight straight with at least six innings and six of those with at least two outs in the sixth inning. He’s not going to miss bats and the Angels aren’t going to strike out (20.3 K% vs RHP), but an above average ground ball rate and six plus innings will work for the right price.
Miles Mikolas is a large workload (less than six innings just three times and once by a single out) contact manager (85.5 mph aEV best on the board for those with more than six starts) with a reasonable strikeout rate (though just 13.4% over the last month). The drop in strikeouts is concerning. You need some to have daily fantasy value, even if everything else is great and he did walk four last time out, never having previously walked more than two this season, but he’s in a great spot (White Sox 19.3 K-BB% at home, 19 K-BB% vs RHP, 22.3 K-BB% last seven days).
Pablo Lopez has back of the rotation upside according to Fangraphs this year (40 FV grade, #18 in organization). He misses a few seasons with Tommy John, moved through AA and AAA in 12 starts this year at 22 years-old and has been more a control than strikeout guy though the minors. He fared well against the Mets, less so against the Nationals in two starts. There’s just really not that much known about him, but the Brewers have some strikeout upside in that lineup (25.1% vs RHP).
Rich Hill had 40% of his strikeouts in just one of his four starts since returning from the DL. He’s been more competent than stellar and the lack of swinging strikes is a concern. After throwing 110 pitches two starts back, he was held to just 73 last time out, which hopefully extends him a bit more tonight. Oddly, his 86.6 mph aEV is one of the lowest marks on the board, though his other Statcast numbers leave a bit to be desired, though he does have a .300 xwOBA since returning. The Padres flash a bit more power against LHP (14.5 HR/FB) and all nine of his HRs have been surrendered to RHBs this season (.380 wOBA), but they’re still a below average offense (87 wRC+) that offers plenty of upside (16.9 K-BB%) against southpaws.
Trevor Bauer has struck out more than 10 in five of his last eight starts and no less than eight in any of them, but he’s struck out exactly eight in three of his last four. His 31.3 K% for the season is third on the board, but within half a point of first. He’s pitched into the seventh in 13 of 18 starts this season and his .223 xwOBA over the last month is easily best on the board. Though there are a couple which are worse tonight, he does pitch in one of the more positive run environments in baseball and is facing an offense with just a 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP.
Enyel de los Santos has a 45+ Future Value grade attached to his Fangraphs player page, but without any other prospect rank or information about the 22 year-old for this season. What we can find throughout his minor league career is consistency. He had a 14.6 K-BB% in 52.2 innings in A ball for the Padres in 2016 before moving up to high A. In 150 AA innings last year, he had a 14.6 K-BB%. In 95.1 AAA innings for the Phillies this year, he has a…wait for it…14.6 K-BB%. That’s a bit better than league average and even if he drops a bit at the major league level, that’s fine. He may be in the top park adjusted matchup on the board. The Mets haven’t been bad against RHP, but have been terrible at home and have a 26.9 K% over the last week with almost every veteran bat on the roster on the DL with Frazier’s arrival there yesterday.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Sean Manaea (.214 – 76.9% – 13.4) struck out just one Padre in his last start. I think you start the game with three against them. He has Houston tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Boyd has a 9.00 ERA over the last month and hasn’t gone beyond four innings in any of his last four. However, he has a 23.8 K% over the last month with the same xwOBA he has for the season, slightly above .300 with the second lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (4.5%) on the board for the season. Yet, he’s allowed eight HRs over his last seven starts. Something is very strange here, but the Rays are pretty tough against LHP.
Johnny Cueto was beat up by the Cardinals at home (five runs with two HRs, walks and strikeouts) in his return from the DL with a decline in velocity. The overall numbers and park adjusted matchup favor him today, especially for less than $8K on FanDuel, but I’d like to see some evidence first.
Julio Teheran has reached double digit strikeouts twice since returning from the DL (once against the Padres, but also last time out against the Yankees). He’s thrown six shutout innings twice, but has allowed 12 runs (three HRs) over the other 9.2 innings. He’s sitting on an 11.6 BB% that’s higher than his 10.9 K-BB% for the season. He’s been above a 15 SwStr% five times this season, but below 10% seven times. I can see the appeal in double digit strikeouts, but that’s not normally who he is and it probably shouldn’t be the expectation. It’s fine using him in a lineup or two if playing many, but he has five games with multiple HRs this year and has allowed at least four runs seven times with five innings or fewer six times.
Masahiro Tanaka faced 18 AAA batters in his lone rehab start after missing a month. Considering it’s the Orioles (82 wRC+, 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP), the temptation is there, but $9K may be a bit aggressive upon his return.
Patrick Corbin is a matchup casualty. It’s a bit harder to use a high priced lefty than a RHP visiting Coors.
Tyler Anderson is another matchup casualty.
Aaron Slegers doesn’t miss bats. He does have a 9.7 SwStr% through two starts, but has never even reached a 20% strikeout rate in the minors. The Royals are up to a 19.6 K% vs RHP though because they have a 25.6 K-BB% overall in the last seven days.
Hector Velazquez has been relieving mostly in single inning stints this year and has only reached 40 pitches twice since April.
Drew Gagnon will be making his major league debut at 28 years-old and had been relieving in the minors the last several seasons up until this year. He does have a 17.2 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts, which is pretty damn impressive, but may not even be available on either site. I’m not currently seeing a price.
Matt Andriese or Ryne Stanek. Someone has to be listed. Nobody can really be used.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | L2 Yrs | 13.0% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 27.1% | Season | 11.1% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 21.7% | Home | 11.9% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 20.7% | L14Days | 9.1% | 4.6% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 14.9% | Season | 17.7% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | Home | 14.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | L14Days | 13.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.7% | 10.8% | 21.0% | 18.8% | Season | 16.6% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 19.4% | Home | 21.5% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 4.8% | L14Days | 5.6% | 11.1% | 40.0% | 48.3% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 24.9% | Season | 18.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 24.9% | Home | 17.9% | 6.5% | 18.8% | 31.2% | L14Days | 10.6% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 20.5% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.0% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 16.3% | Season | 27.7% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 21.5% | Home | 29.6% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 10.3% | L14Days | 40.0% | 5.0% | 66.7% | 36.4% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 15.5% | Season | 14.2% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 14.1% | Home | 18.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 10.3% | L14Days | 11.5% | 3.9% | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 23.4% | Season | 20.9% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 20.7% | Road | 19.8% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 22.4% | L14Days | 21.1% | 5.3% | 25.0% | 14.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 9.6% | Season | 19.0% | 4.3% | 15.6% | 10.1% | Road | 16.6% | 5.1% | 12.8% | 9.8% | L14Days | 12.8% | 6.4% | 25.0% | 8.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 13.0% | Season | 18.9% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 21.5% | Road | 18.2% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 13.7% | L14Days | 25.5% | 8.5% | 17.2% | |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 12.5% | Season | 20.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 13.4% | Home | 22.2% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 7.9% | L14Days | 17.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 13.5% | Season | 19.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 2.0% | Home | 16.5% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 17.8% | L14Days | 8.0% | 8.0% | 28.6% | 19.0% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 15.8% | Season | 21.1% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 22.2% | Road | 23.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 22.7% | L14Days | 15.4% | 11.5% | 21.4% | 10.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 12.8% | Season | 22.5% | 11.6% | 20.7% | Home | 19.3% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 12.7% | L14Days | 30.4% | 13.0% | 22.2% | 38.5% | |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | Season | 31.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | Home | 28.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 14.0% | L14Days | 30.4% | 3.8% | 12.5% | 17.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 7.4% | 18.4% | 13.9% | Season | 17.8% | 9.5% | 19.4% | 26.7% | Road | 18.9% | 8.4% | 20.6% | 17.5% | L14Days | 13.3% | 8.9% | 25.0% | 22.9% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 5.4% | 19.5% | 12.7% | Season | 24.8% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 16.2% | Road | 23.2% | 6.4% | 23.5% | 15.0% | L14Days | ||||
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 5.8% | 16.1% | 18.6% | Season | 21.8% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 23.3% | Home | 21.2% | 6.4% | 17.2% | 34.5% | L14Days | 18.8% | 12.5% | 9.1% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 14.3% | Season | 20.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 16.7% | Road | 20.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 12.7% | L14Days | 23.3% | 4.7% | 21.4% | 25.8% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 4.8% | 13.1% | 16.5% | Season | 15.1% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 22.4% | Road | 15.6% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 22.4% | L14Days | 20.4% | 4.1% | 15.4% | 22.2% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 13.4% | Season | 17.1% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 13.4% | Road | 17.0% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 11.2% | L14Days | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 6.5% | 30.0% | 22.9% | Season | 17.4% | 6.5% | 30.0% | 22.9% | Home | 20.0% | 4.0% | 40.0% | 26.3% | L14Days | 17.4% | 6.5% | 30.0% | 22.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 19.2% | Season | 31.5% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 29.2% | Road | 24.6% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 16.5% | L14Days | 23.4% | 6.4% | 45.5% | |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.8% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 14.4% | Season | 24.4% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 26.4% | Road | 29.7% | 6.9% | 14.5% | 8.7% | L14Days | 31.9% | 2.1% | 12.5% | 27.6% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 13.2% | Season | 17.3% | 9.0% | 17.7% | 15.0% | Road | 16.0% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | L14Days | 23.9% | 4.4% | 30.0% | 6.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 19.3% | Season | 17.1% | 4.8% | 13.4% | 23.5% | Road | 18.4% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 22.0% | L14Days | 6.1% | 6.1% | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 17.4% | Season | 31.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 19.2% | Home | 27.9% | 6.5% | 14.7% | 22.3% | L14Days | 28.1% | 3.5% | ||
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 6.1% | Season | 22.4% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 7.9% | Home | 23.0% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 3.9% | L14Days | 31.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 16.1% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 12.0% | Season | 15.5% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 17.3% | Road | 15.3% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 11.5% | L14Days | 18.0% | 4.0% | 12.5% | 28.2% |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days | ||||||||||||||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Road | 21.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 16.8% | RH | 19.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 22.6% | L7Days | 29.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 28.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.6% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 16.8% | RH | 23.5% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 26.0% | 12.5% | 19.7% | 22.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.1% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 20.3% | RH | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 22.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 30.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 19.5% | LH | 22.0% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 18.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.9% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 19.2% | RH | 20.2% | 6.9% | 14.4% | 15.2% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 2.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.1% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 18.2% | RH | 25.3% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 22.4% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 19.1% |
| Twins | Home | 22.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 19.4% | RH | 21.1% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 20.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | RH | 19.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 17.7% | RH | 22.9% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 16.8% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 15.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 14.7% | RH | 21.1% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.2% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 16.2% | RH | 20.7% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 11.6% |
| Giants | Home | 21.9% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 21.6% | LH | 22.2% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 21.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 16.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.2% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 19.2% | RH | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 7.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.7% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 24.6% | RH | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 25.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 22.9% |
| Braves | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 20.9% | RH | 20.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 25.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 10.2% | RH | 24.3% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 9.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | RH | 21.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 18.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% |
| Rays | Home | 22.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 17.0% | LH | 23.8% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 18.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 17.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.6% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 20.1% | RH | 20.3% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 19.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.2% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 6.2% | RH | 25.5% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 28.3% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.0% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 12.2% | RH | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 18.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.8% | 21.4% | 36.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.3% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 13.6% | LH | 21.8% | 7.6% | 17.0% | 17.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 3.3% | 14.0% | 17.2% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 19.3% | LH | 24.5% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 28.6% |
| Indians | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 27.8% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 24.8% | L7Days | 14.4% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 19.6% |
| Astros | Home | 20.7% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 11.8% | LH | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 17.5% | L7Days | 17.2% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 20.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 17.4% | RH | 21.0% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 21.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.6% | 17.4% | 23.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.6% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 17.8% | LH | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 25.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 29.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.0% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 18.6% | RH | 18.6% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 21.5% | L7Days | 13.8% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 26.6% |
| Mets | Home | 24.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 17.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.4% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 8.9% | RH | 26.3% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | 11.1% | 9.7% | 1.14 | 9.1% | 12.5% | 0.73 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.57 | 13.2% | 3.7% | 3.57 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 16.6% | 7.0% | 2.37 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.74 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.0% | 7.9% | 2.28 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 1.57 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 27.7% | 11.6% | 2.39 | 33.3% | 9.6% | 3.47 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 14.2% | 7.9% | 1.80 | 9.8% | 6.7% | 1.46 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 20.9% | 8.2% | 2.55 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.61 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 19.0% | 8.8% | 2.16 | 12.8% | 6.4% | 2.00 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.05 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 20.3% | 10.2% | 1.99 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 1.90 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 19.7% | 10.1% | 1.95 | 8.0% | 9.2% | 0.87 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 21.1% | 8.1% | 2.60 | 14.1% | 6.8% | 2.07 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.5% | 10.6% | 2.12 | 34.4% | 13.2% | 2.61 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 31.8% | 13.1% | 2.43 | 30.8% | 13.2% | 2.33 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 17.8% | 9.5% | 1.87 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 1.64 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.8% | 14.0% | 1.77 | |||
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 21.8% | 11.1% | 1.96 | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.88 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 20.3% | 10.0% | 2.03 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 2.33 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 15.1% | 8.1% | 1.86 | 15.5% | 9.0% | 1.72 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 17.1% | 8.5% | 2.01 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2.09 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 31.5% | 14.5% | 2.17 | 28.5% | 16.4% | 1.74 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 24.4% | 7.8% | 3.13 | 27.7% | 8.6% | 3.22 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 17.3% | 7.8% | 2.22 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 1.65 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 17.1% | 9.6% | 1.78 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 1.67 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 31.3% | 13.1% | 2.39 | 34.1% | 13.9% | 2.45 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 22.4% | 12.3% | 1.82 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 2.05 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 15.5% | 6.4% | 2.42 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 2.54 |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | ||||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets |
Eric Lauer has been in double digits in SwStr% in three of his last four starts.
Rich Hill has exceeded an 8.2 SwStr% just twice this season and just once since his first start. As consistent as this has been, it is a bit of a concern at this point. He’s been in double digits every year since his resurgence in Boston.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | 2.38 | 4.87 | 2.49 | 2.38 | 2.68 | 5.33 | 2.95 | 5.26 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 5.27 | 3.77 | 5.09 | 3.59 | 5.62 | 4.12 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.39 | 4.92 | 0.53 | 4.39 | 0.41 | 4.99 | 0.60 | 6.32 | 1.93 | 2.45 | 5.24 | 2.79 | 4.91 | 2.46 | 4.30 | 1.85 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 5.54 | 4.69 | -0.85 | 5.54 | -0.98 | 4.71 | -0.83 | 7.04 | 1.50 | 9.82 | 5.96 | -3.86 | 6.04 | -3.78 | 7.80 | -2.02 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 4.84 | 4.81 | -0.03 | 4.84 | -0.16 | 4.73 | -0.11 | 5.65 | 0.81 | 2.28 | 4.45 | 2.17 | 4.19 | 1.91 | 3.88 | 1.60 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 3.42 | 3.74 | 0.32 | 3.42 | 0.06 | 3.94 | 0.52 | 4.71 | 1.29 | 4.91 | 2.46 | -2.45 | 2.37 | -2.54 | 4.35 | -0.56 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 2.76 | 4.24 | 1.48 | 2.76 | 1.67 | 3.89 | 1.13 | 5.63 | 2.87 | 4.50 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 3.84 | -0.66 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 5.11 | 4.46 | -0.65 | 5.11 | -0.53 | 4.81 | -0.30 | 5.17 | 0.06 | 3.46 | 4.44 | 0.98 | 4.8 | 1.34 | 4.97 | 1.51 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 3.81 | 3.93 | 0.12 | 3.81 | -0.12 | 4.03 | 0.22 | 3.68 | -0.13 | 11.42 | 5.12 | -6.30 | 5.39 | -6.03 | 7.62 | -3.80 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.63 | 4.77 | 1.14 | 3.63 | 1.02 | 3.84 | 0.21 | 4.95 | 1.32 | 3.77 | 4.53 | 0.76 | 4.12 | 0.35 | 3.44 | -0.33 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 3.79 | 4.07 | 0.28 | 3.79 | 0.37 | 3.35 | -0.44 | 3.77 | -0.02 | 5.48 | 4.19 | -1.29 | 4.45 | -1.03 | 3.22 | -2.26 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 1.95 | 4.08 | 2.13 | 1.95 | 2.19 | 3.55 | 1.60 | 3.45 | 1.50 | 9.00 | 5.64 | -3.36 | 5.81 | -3.19 | 8.72 | -0.28 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.22 | 4.57 | 0.35 | 4.22 | 0.12 | 4.71 | 0.49 | 4.89 | 0.67 | 4.28 | 5.36 | 1.08 | 5.1 | 0.82 | 6.16 | 1.88 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.47 | 4.60 | 0.13 | 4.47 | 0.22 | 5.22 | 0.75 | 4.53 | 0.06 | 4.98 | 3.52 | -1.46 | 3.19 | -1.79 | 3.86 | -1.12 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 2.15 | 2.98 | 0.83 | 2.15 | 1.36 | 2.63 | 0.48 | 2.04 | -0.11 | 4.18 | 2.91 | -1.27 | 3.42 | -0.76 | 3.56 | -0.62 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 6.50 | 4.16 | -2.34 | 6.50 | -2.60 | 4.49 | -2.01 | 5.12 | -1.38 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 0.02 | 3.68 | -0.10 | 4.26 | 0.48 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.58 | 3.63 | -0.95 | 4.58 | -0.83 | 4.92 | 0.34 | 4.36 | -0.22 | |||||||
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 3.71 | 3.45 | -0.26 | 3.71 | -0.10 | 3.48 | -0.23 | 4.31 | 0.60 | 4.05 | 4.86 | 0.81 | 4.62 | 0.57 | 4.25 | 0.20 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.58 | 4.62 | 0.04 | 4.58 | 0.31 | 4.29 | -0.29 | 5.77 | 1.19 | 9.00 | 4.06 | -4.94 | 4.36 | -4.64 | 5.30 | -3.70 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.11 | 4.45 | 0.34 | 4.11 | 0.14 | 4.37 | 0.26 | 4.23 | 0.12 | 3.19 | 4.37 | 1.18 | 4.08 | 0.89 | 4.28 | 1.09 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.63 | 3.97 | 1.34 | 2.63 | 1.07 | 3.28 | 0.65 | 3.54 | 0.91 | 3.60 | 4.77 | 1.17 | 4.42 | 0.82 | 3.76 | 0.16 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5.73 | 4.16 | -1.57 | 5.73 | -1.76 | 6.03 | 0.30 | 7.36 | 1.63 | 5.73 | 4.16 | -1.57 | 3.97 | -1.76 | 6.03 | 0.30 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.05 | 2.89 | -0.16 | 3.05 | -0.40 | 2.78 | -0.27 | 2.77 | -0.28 | 3.56 | 3.05 | -0.51 | 2.58 | -0.98 | 2.03 | -1.53 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 4.56 | 3.96 | -0.60 | 4.56 | -0.30 | 4.83 | 0.27 | 4.58 | 0.02 | 2.78 | 3.16 | 0.38 | 3.68 | 0.90 | 3.17 | 0.39 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.40 | 4.72 | -0.68 | 5.40 | -0.90 | 5.17 | -0.23 | 5.72 | 0.32 | 3.60 | 3.97 | 0.37 | 3.67 | 0.07 | 4.52 | 0.92 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 3.33 | 4.32 | 0.99 | 3.33 | 0.90 | 4.34 | 1.01 | 4.11 | 0.78 | 2.70 | 4.33 | 1.63 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 1.14 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.45 | 3.05 | 0.60 | 2.45 | 0.56 | 2.17 | -0.28 | 2.30 | -0.15 | 2.04 | 2.62 | 0.58 | 2.6 | 0.56 | 1.40 | -0.64 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 3.90 | 4.13 | 0.23 | 3.90 | 0.24 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 4.03 | 0.13 | 2.10 | 3.29 | 1.19 | 3.35 | 1.25 | 3.24 | 1.14 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 8.17 | 4.97 | -3.20 | 8.17 | -3.42 | 5.57 | -2.60 | 6.96 | -1.21 | 5.87 | 4.49 | -1.38 | 4.21 | -1.66 | 4.90 | -0.97 |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | ||||||||||||||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets |
Eric Lauers has allowed four unearned runs over the last month and has a 79.9 LOB%. If the swinging strike rate remains somewhere close to league average, the strikeout rate should rise and his estimators fall.
Jhoulys Chacin has just a 6.5 HR/FB for the season and a 5.0 HR/FB over his last 11 starts. He has managed contact fairly well, but this is completely unsustainable.
Justin Verlander has a .242 BABIP, 84 LOB% and 7.4 HR/FB. Some of that may be sustainable. See below.
Marcus Stroman has a .325 BABIP, 57.2 LOB% and 19.4 HR/FB. His HR/FB has increased each year of his career so far and his BABIP has always been above .300, but never above .310 and his career strand rate is 14 points higher.
Miles Mikolas has a .262 BABIP, 77.5 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB. The first two of those may be on the edge of sustainability and he does have the lowest aEV on the board, but St Louis seems to be a different park once it heats up in the summer. He’s on the road for the fourth time in five starts in a fine run environment tonight, but not a power suppressing one.
Trevor Bauer has a 4.9 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | 0.303 | 0.200 | -0.103 | 45.9% | 16.2% | 21.4% | 90.0% | 35.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.322 | 0.315 | -0.007 | 40.4% | 23.2% | 8.3% | 90.7% | 38.2% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.314 | 0.023 | 57.7% | 16.0% | 2.3% | 91.5% | 37.7% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.304 | 0.367 | 0.063 | 36.9% | 27.6% | 9.1% | 87.6% | 39.9% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.295 | 0.276 | -0.019 | 50.0% | 18.9% | 13.6% | 87.5% | 33.0% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.336 | 0.045 | 48.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% | 92.5% | 38.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.307 | 0.300 | -0.007 | 29.6% | 26.4% | 11.5% | 86.4% | 38.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.283 | -0.004 | 45.2% | 25.8% | 17.8% | 85.5% | 33.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.273 | 0.277 | 0.004 | 40.6% | 23.5% | 9.3% | 88.7% | 36.1% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.339 | 0.039 | 45.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 86.0% | 33.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.299 | 0.230 | -0.069 | 46.5% | 16.8% | 18.9% | 85.7% | 42.9% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.272 | 0.281 | 0.009 | 43.3% | 22.4% | 8.9% | 88.4% | 34.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.280 | 0.226 | -0.054 | 38.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83.8% | 37.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.274 | 0.242 | -0.032 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 81.3% | 36.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.302 | 0.325 | 0.023 | 62.1% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 89.2% | 31.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.242 | -0.039 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 83.2% | 30.4% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 0.267 | 0.283 | 0.016 | 51.4% | 18.9% | 9.1% | 85.7% | 38.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.264 | -0.026 | 31.2% | 23.3% | 10.7% | 85.1% | 37.6% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.292 | 0.284 | -0.008 | 48.8% | 20.8% | 6.3% | 91.2% | 34.3% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.262 | -0.022 | 50.1% | 22.4% | 10.9% | 89.8% | 31.8% |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.250 | -0.043 | 55.9% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 90.6% | 31.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.281 | 0.277 | -0.004 | 46.8% | 24.2% | 7.7% | 82.9% | 27.4% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.294 | 0.307 | 0.013 | 33.8% | 23.8% | 9.1% | 85.7% | 35.5% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.296 | 0.292 | -0.004 | 45.7% | 22.7% | 14.6% | 91.2% | 36.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.277 | 0.214 | -0.063 | 43.1% | 21.8% | 9.2% | 89.9% | 33.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.291 | 0.307 | 0.016 | 44.9% | 20.4% | 9.8% | 85.3% | 32.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.306 | 0.276 | -0.030 | 36.6% | 23.2% | 7.9% | 83.4% | 42.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.329 | 0.028 | 44.8% | 24.1% | 7.4% | 94.0% | 37.4% |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | 0.300 | |||||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets | 0.300 |
Eric Lauer has a high line drive rate. The BABIP has been a bit lower over the last month (.326), but still a bit high. While the LD% is high, overall contact is fine, which provides some optimism.
Justin Verlander has a .242 BABIP, but the profile is exceptional and the defense well-positioned. He’s been below .275 each of the last four years now. This is one of the few cases that I don’t have an issue with someone below .250, only when everything converges in their favor as it does here.
Marcus Stroman is a little deceptive. You see a low line drive rate and nothing else off, but he’s always allowed a lot of hard ground balls and doesn’t have a single infield fly. He’s never generated more than nine in a season. This is not a strength.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Slegers | Twins | 0.452 | -0.156 | 0.453 | -0.210 | 0.551 | -0.297 | 1.400 | 87.4 | 16.2 | 43.200 | 37 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.372 | -0.012 | 0.344 | -0.018 | 0.325 | -0.051 | -1.700 | 88.9 | 8.3 | 36.900 | 301 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.350 | -0.018 | 0.308 | -0.008 | 0.422 | -0.010 | -0.700 | 89.9 | 6.7 | 42.400 | 165 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.351 | 0.026 | 0.353 | 0.042 | 0.322 | 0.000 | -0.700 | 87.1 | 6.2 | 31.600 | 225 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.318 | -0.021 | 0.283 | -0.046 | 0.327 | 0.033 | -1.300 | 90.2 | 8.4 | 40.800 | 191 |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | 0.339 | -0.010 | 0.305 | -0.009 | 0.288 | 0.052 | 0.500 | 88.1 | 6.4 | 32.700 | 156 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.360 | -0.017 | 0.346 | -0.022 | 0.286 | -0.032 | -0.100 | 89.2 | 9.9 | 36.600 | 284 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.342 | -0.030 | 0.328 | -0.011 | 0.412 | 0.060 | -1.200 | 87.8 | 8.2 | 32.700 | 159 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.338 | -0.039 | 0.333 | 0.005 | 0.356 | -0.044 | -1.400 | 87.5 | 5.9 | 37.500 | 307 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.295 | 0.021 | 0.317 | 0.024 | 0.315 | 0.026 | -0.300 | 86.5 | 4.7 | 29.900 | 127 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.273 | -0.019 | 0.366 | -0.007 | 0.351 | 0.179 | -1.500 | 85.2 | 5.8 | 25.200 | 103 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.341 | -0.011 | 0.317 | -0.026 | 0.390 | -0.023 | 0.200 | 88.9 | 5.6 | 40.400 | 270 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.348 | -0.031 | 0.360 | -0.015 | 0.334 | -0.052 | -0.300 | 88.8 | 8.4 | 40.200 | 251 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.243 | -0.004 | 0.285 | -0.043 | 0.279 | 0.032 | -1.200 | 88 | 6.0 | 32.200 | 301 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.366 | -0.025 | 0.336 | -0.004 | 0.265 | 0.041 | -1.100 | 91.2 | 9.1 | 48.300 | 176 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.332 | -0.023 | 0.333 | 0.014 | -1.300 | 87.3 | 9.6 | 35.900 | 198 | ||
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 0.325 | -0.032 | 0.341 | -0.016 | 0.293 | -0.006 | -1.300 | 89.1 | 6.0 | 46.000 | 150 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.306 | -0.003 | 0.327 | 0.030 | 0.309 | 0.075 | -0.800 | 86.5 | 4.5 | 29.100 | 268 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.380 | -0.060 | 0.352 | -0.041 | 0.355 | -0.068 | -1.800 | 90.1 | 7.9 | 42.900 | 366 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.296 | -0.038 | 0.328 | -0.043 | 0.306 | -0.034 | -0.300 | 85.5 | 5.5 | 28.500 | 344 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 0.394 | -0.046 | 0.357 | -0.010 | 0.394 | -0.046 | 0.700 | 87.2 | 11.4 | 31.400 | 35 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.295 | -0.037 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 0.328 | -0.053 | -0.600 | 89 | 7.4 | 38.700 | 271 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.366 | -0.023 | 0.288 | 0.022 | 0.300 | -0.020 | -0.600 | 86.6 | 9.6 | 39.000 | 136 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.359 | -0.013 | 0.348 | -0.001 | 0.350 | -0.038 | -1.000 | 88.4 | 8.1 | 35.800 | 307 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.343 | -0.075 | 0.347 | -0.031 | 0.285 | -0.047 | 0.300 | 88.5 | 8.9 | 39.100 | 348 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.272 | -0.011 | 0.312 | -0.007 | 0.223 | 0.015 | -0.600 | 87.1 | 4.7 | 29.900 | 298 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.296 | 0.014 | 0.304 | 0.027 | 0.244 | 0.013 | -0.400 | 85.9 | 4.1 | 27.900 | 290 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.359 | 0.020 | 0.355 | -0.004 | 0.325 | 0.005 | -0.600 | 87.3 | 4.6 | 35.600 | 87 |
| Enyel De los Santos | Phillies | |||||||||||
| Drew Gagnon | Mets |
Garrett Richards has a .283 xwOBA at home since last season that’s the top split on the board.
Justin Verlander blows everyone on the board away by xwOBA, but more recently it’s been Trevor Bauer and even Tyler Anderson.
Marcus Stroman gets hit hard, but his xwOBA is 100 points less than his season rate since returning from the DL (three starts).
Rich Hill has an 86.6 mph aEV, but 39% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity resulting in 9.6% Barrels/BBE and a .366 xwOBA. Tough to make sense of, but there seems to have been significant improvement since returning (.300 xwOBA).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
There was some feedback about the new format yesterday and I may go back, but let’s try it the new way one more time because it’s really tough to find value in this group or separate them by tiers. It’s not that there aren’t any options, but none stand out above others and one of tonight’s top pitchers may illustrate why this new method may work better tonight.
Overall Top Arms
Justin Verlander has the ability to go out and dominate every time he takes the ball and pitches in the best park, but the matchup isn’t very easy and he costs a good chunk of your allotted salary.
Trevor Bauer is clearly in a tier with Verlander pretty far above anyone else tonight, but I do have him a bit below Verlander and costs slightly more. Neither has great matchups, but Verlander has a major park advantage tonight. I’m really struggling with the notion of Bauer’s price tonight. I’ll list him below because he’s clearly the second best arm on the board and I hate to leave that guy out, especially when I’m already omitting another 30 K% arm, but am not sure I can justify getting there tonight.
Miles Mikolas isn’t missing any bats over the last month, but still gets deep into games and manages contact well. Hopefully, the strikeouts will increase in a great spot tonight.
Garrett Richards has pitched extremely well against the Mariners this season. His 27.7 K% is fourth on the board and each of the three pitchers above him cost at least $2K more on DraftKings with only Corbin within $3K of him on FanDuel. His issues with bases on balls haven’t afflicted him as much against a Seattle offense that does not draw many walks.
Joe Musgrove misses bats at a league average rate and manages contact well. Only two pitchers have a lower xwOBA and they each nearly double his cost on DraftKings. His matchup could be anywhere from slightly favorable to a tough one depending on which version of the Nationals we see tonight.
Top FanDuel Values – Very little point per dollar separation for me for most of these guys tonight for either site.
Jeremy Hellickson should bounce back from being pounded by the Marlins, perhaps due to illness. That actually may give us an advantage here with the lower price tag. He’s not in a high upside spot, but should be able to cover $6K most times, though he’s only completed six innings once, but he has recorded a sixth inning out in half his starts.
Jose Quintana has a nice matchup in a great park at a reasonable price.
Marcus Stroman could be a top value at a low price is his last outing was just an isolated incident. If not, he could be a complete mess. This is concerning, but the price is too low to entirely pass up on either site.
Rich Hill does have some workload concerns and also some swinging strike ones as well, but is reasonably priced in a nice matchup with upside.
Enyel de los Santos could be decent in a great spot if he’s anything close to his minor league numbers and costs just $5.5K.
Jhoulys Chacin has been pitching well and is in a great spot.
Top DraftKings Values
Mike Leake is less than $6K and not terrible. He could give you something similar to Stroman tonight for $1K less. His $2.3K price discrepancy is the largest gap on the board and he’s obviously not an option for so much more on a single pitcher site.
Eric Lauer is a reasonable SP2 for $5.3K.
Pablo Lopez is cheap enough to consider in a matchup with some upside.
Miles Mikolas is probably at the maximum I’d consider paying for him, even in this spot with the hope he misses a few more bats tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin is probably at the maximum I’d consider paying for him, even in this spot. (Yes, I did intentionally say that twice.)
Enyel de los Santos …maybe? I really don’t know at this price and don’t understand why DraftKings has him at $7.5K already.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.