Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 6th
There are several extremely strong pitchers to choose from today. Unfortunately, as happened last week with mostly the same group, there aren’t many non-expensive pitchers worth your time. You’ll likely be paying up today and looking for ways to save on offense. What you see might be what you get tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4 | 3.51 | 5.65 | 52.7% | 1 | 3.41 | 3.71 | ATL | 100 | 94 | 103 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -11.6 | 4.3 | 5.91 | 45.0% | 1.02 | 4.14 | 3.49 | CIN | 104 | 103 | 100 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.7 | 4.66 | 6.09 | 46.5% | 1.39 | 4.64 | 3.44 | CLE | 93 | 103 | 94 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 1 | 4.19 | 5.01 | 42.2% | 0.89 | 4 | 2.95 | WAS | 108 | 115 | 130 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -4 | 4.48 | 5.24 | 37.4% | 1.02 | 4.6 | 2.67 | SFO | 78 | 77 | 100 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.8 | 3.44 | 6.21 | 45.8% | 0.96 | 3 | 2.69 | CHW | 89 | 81 | 96 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.6 | 4.21 | 5.13 | 42.0% | 0.98 | 4.39 | 4.14 | ANA | 78 | 97 | 109 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 38.7% | 1.06 | 4.65 | 1.59 | KAN | 79 | 80 | 81 |
| Dillon Gee | TEX | 1.3 | 4.56 | 5.08 | 41.2% | 1.11 | 4.72 | 3.29 | NYM | 119 | 101 | 92 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -7.9 | 2.51 | 5. | 31.8% | 1.13 | 2.79 | 2.51 | ARI | 119 | 103 | 55 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.1 | 3.57 | 5.41 | 44.9% | 1.01 | 3.81 | 2.01 | NYY | 122 | 99 | 128 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 9.1 | 4.93 | 5.43 | 32.6% | 0.89 | 5.62 | 5.39 | SEA | 116 | 83 | 162 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -7.4 | 4.09 | 5.91 | 51.5% | 1.02 | 3.73 | 5.25 | BAL | 90 | 94 | 107 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.1 | 3.32 | 6.22 | 45.4% | 1.11 | 3.34 | 3.76 | TEX | 96 | 95 | 72 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 2.6 | 3.92 | 5.92 | 57.8% | 1 | 3.48 | 4 | PHI | 78 | 88 | 106 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.3 | 3.43 | 6.53 | 52.9% | 0.96 | 3.46 | 2.67 | MIA | 98 | 93 | 110 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 8 | 6.76 | 4.2 | 29.4% | 1.06 | 10.79 | HOU | 128 | 124 | 163 | |
| James Paxton | SEA | 6.7 | 3.49 | 5.74 | 47.2% | 0.89 | 3.36 | 1.49 | MIN | 102 | 84 | 101 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.7 | 4.55 | 5.6 | 49.0% | 0.96 | 5.21 | 1.78 | CHC | 103 | 112 | 78 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -5.6 | 4.03 | 5.56 | 44.7% | 0.98 | 4.65 | 4.87 | DET | 127 | 101 | 164 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -14.3 | 4.77 | 5.45 | 49.5% | 0.93 | 4.34 | 3.39 | TOR | 90 | 97 | 98 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.4 | 3.89 | 6.43 | 42.5% | 0.96 | 4.48 | 2.69 | TAM | 110 | 86 | 103 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.5 | 4.03 | 5.75 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 4.11 | 5.58 | PIT | 89 | 93 | 98 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 32.9% | 0.93 | 4.35 | 3.58 | OAK | 119 | 103 | 95 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 1.3 | 3.72 | 6.31 | 0.481 | 1.01 | 3.41 | 2.72 | BOS | 107 | 96 | 105 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -0.2 | 4.85 | 5.15 | 0.39 | 1.02 | 5.62 | 3.65 | MIL | 95 | 97 | 78 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -1.9 | 2.83 | 6.81 | 0.344 | 0.89 | 3.66 | 2.03 | LOS | 121 | 106 | 62 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -5.5 | 4.53 | 4.61 | 0.391 | 1.39 | 4.2 | 3.58 | COL | 77 | 82 | 78 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -4.9 | 3.75 | 5.63 | 0.439 | 1.13 | 3.72 | 2.04 | SDG | 77 | 62 | 78 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.68 | 5.3 | 0.378 | 1.02 | 5.05 | 4.45 | STL | 90 | 97 | 68 |
Aaron Nola lasted three innings in his last start and has allowed nine runs over his last nine innings with three HRs, though he has struck out nine of 41 batters. He also has a 62.7 GB% with a -3.4 Hard-Soft% in those games. On the season, he has league average peripherals (13.1 K-BB%) with a 56.3 GB% and -2 Hard-Soft%. The Braves have just a 13.1 K% over the last week and are about a neutral matchup here.
Chris Archer has struck out one-third of batters on a 14.3 SwStr% over the last month. While contact is occasionally a bit harder than you’d like, it’s generally not so bad that it’s a significant issue with his strikeout rate. He’s in a great spot against the White Sox (17.2 K-BB%, 28.5 Hard% vs RHP).
David Paulino is one of the top prospects (sixth with a 50 FV according to Fangraphs) for the team that seems to have everything. He struck out eight of 17 Twins in his debut, but was pulled after 89 pitches. He’s had a K-BB above 20% at just about every stop in his travels, though only has a total of 39 innings in his career above AA (including 11 major league innings). He only generated two GBs with no weak contact in his first start, but is certainly in a favorable spot against the Royals, who have an 8.6 HR/FB at home.
Drew Pomeranz has struck out 19 of 52 batters in 13 innings (-12.5 Hard-Soft%) over his last two starts as he seems to be hitting his stride after a late start and then a rough patch in May. His 21.3 K-BB% would be a top 10 mark with a few more innings to qualify, but he’s not in a nearly favorable spot in Yankee Stadium. While the Bombers have a 19.8 HR/FB at home, they have been a bit more vulnerable to LHP though (23.6 K%).
Jacob deGrom was punished for seven runs and five walks in four innings (six strikeouts, 25 BF) by Milwaukee. His manager thought it was the after effect of a 118 pitch outing the start before…but still left him in to throw 105 pitches in four innings! The intelligence of that matter aside, it was the third time he has walked five this year (9.9 BB% on the year), but he still generated a 14.3 SwStr% and has now been above 13% in eight of his last nine starts. There are some issues here (37.7 Hard%, 18.2 HR/FB) beyond the walk rate, but the upside remains elite. The park in Texas is more dangerous than the opponent (23.3 K% vs RHP).
Jake Arrieta has alternated good and bad overall results in his last four starts, though the peripherals remain strong (22.5 K-BB% over that span). One theory, shortly after the first of those starts, was that his “cutter has abandoned him”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrieta-has-not-been-good/ due to messed up mechanics (throwing across his body), but perhaps he has remedied that with a single run in two of his last three. Strikeouts are still there even if we’re not enamored with the contact this year (41.2 GB%, 33.3 Hard%). He’s not in a bad spot at home against the Marlins and even better if the wind is blowing in again like last night.
James Paxton returned from a returned from nearly a month long layoff to strike out six of 19 Rockies, allowing just three base-runners without a walk. His arm seems fine as his velocity was actually at it’s highest point of the season. Hopefully, the 74 pitches he threw (14 swings and misses) upon return will be expanded on by 10 to 15 at home against the Twins, who have struggled against LHP due to just a 6.9 HR/FB.
Max Scherzer is just doing what he usually does. How much analysis do you need for a guy who has struck out 24 of 62 batters in 17.2 innings over his last two starts, throwing just 208 pitches? The Dodgers are generally a tough bunch of outs against RHP, but have been scuffling with a 27 K% and 6.2 HR/FB over the last week.
Robbie Ray has just the third highest strikeout rate (30.2%) among qualified pitchers today. That’s a little crazy and his 43.6% aEV above 95 mph is worst on the board, which often makes him a dangerous start at home, but he may still be in the top spot on the board against the Padres (32.3 K% over the last week).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Mike Clevinger (.231 – 83.9% – 14.8) may need to be re-evaluated outside of Coors and might even be today on a less talented board, but his 12.2 BB% could get him in trouble in this park. He’s also allowed four HRs over his last two starts with the highest rate of Barrels/BBE (11.6%) on the board.
Jaime Garcia (.242 – 75.1% – 12.0) could gain some support in a nice spot against the Phillies and his 85 mph aEV is third best on the board, but he has had just two of his 10 starts at the new launching pad in Atlanta, allowing a HR in each effort.
Chase Anderson (.295 – 75.7% – 7.0) has struck out 18 of his last 49 batters in 14 shutout innings. His 84.6 mph aEV is second best on the slate. However, he had just a 5.8 SwStr% in his last start and has a history of allowing HRs at at least a league average rate. In the four previous starts, he failed to go more than one out into the sixth. He does have one of the top matchups against the Giants tonight, but is sufficiently priced at $8K or more.
Ivan Nova (.283 – 74.4% – 7.5) is not missing nearly enough bats to feel confident in his return to a difficult AL East park.
Antonio Senzatela (.258 – 76.2% – 11.1)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jose Quintana has been lit up in his last two starts for 15 runs (four HRs) in just seven innings. This is a guy with a 9.1 career HR/FB. His overall contact rates aren’t bad though and his peripherals aren’t terrible, though it’s still difficult to buy into his above average strikeout rate with a SwStr below 8%. However, he’s now just $8K against a lineup with a 27.5 K% against LHP. He’s an interesting speculation on a less talented board.
Brandon McCarthy has an impressive 16.5 K-BB% with a 1.4 Hard-Soft% and a slate low 22.8% of BBEs above 95 mph according to Statcast. The Nationals are a difficult matchup in a great park. There’s nothing wrong with using him here. He’s be a perfectly fine fourth tier pitcher on most days for $8K, just not today.
Marco Estrada is missing more bats than he ever has, but was bombed by the Yankees for seven runs (two HRs) in fewer than four innings in his last start and has now allowed eight HRs over his last six starts. He appears to be either feast or famine in regard to loud contact and occasionally strikeouts this year. While Oakland is an improvement for fly ball pitchers and the team that inhabits the park has a 24.4 K% against RHP, they also have an 18.1 HR/FB at home. For $9K, you’d like a bit more consistency, but he’s a fine choice for those who embrace the added risk.
Masahiro Tanaka is missing so many bats, but “his fastball”:https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/872014651336294400 is getting crushed. Perhaps that’s why he doesn’t often throw them anymore. Somehow, he inserted a 13 strikeout performance with just one run in between a month of torture, in which he’s allowed 11 HRs in his five other starts since the start of May. At a reduced price (now below $8K on DraftKings), we’d probably lean towards speculating on a lesser day, but against a Boston lineup that strikes out just 18.5% of the time on the roa and vs RHP, the 95+ mph aEV on 41.6% of his contact is too much of a concern.
Dinelson Lamet has had two nearly identical starts, going five innings with eight strikeouts (42 BF) in each with a HR allowed. Walk issues have not followed him from the minors with just three so far. With a 66.7 F-Strike% and 54.1 Zone%, he’s firing strikes. This is the first positive run environment he will face, but the Diamondbacks are the coldest offense in the league (24.4 K%, 8.3 HR/FB over the last week).
Daniel Norris is not in a terrible spot facing a predominantly RH Angels lineup without Trout, but they have just an 18.7 K% against LHP and that’s not something that will likely digress without their star player. His hard hit rate remains at 40.8%.
Jeff Locke struck out seven Diamondbacks with a 15 SwStr% in his first start as a Marlin. His career strikeout rate is barely higher than that (16.5%). He does keep the ball on the ground, but we’ll certainly need to see more of that before buying in. The Cubs have actually performed well against LHP this season (13.5 BB%, 19.1 HR/FB).
Dillon Gee has worked 6.2 innings out of the Texas bullpen so far. He did not leave the Mets on good terms and does have the revenge narrative going for him. Does that cover a near minimum cost? He has a career 16.8 K% with a league average ground ball rate, likely not a recipe for long term success in Texas.
Adam Wainwright has been fueled by a .230 BABIP and 85.3 LOB% without allowing a HR over the last month and still has a BABIP near .350. You’re being asked to pay more than $8K for a league average pitcher at best in a slightly unfavorable spot.
Jackob Junis because it doesn’t matter who you throw out there at the Astros right now.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.3% | Road | 21.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.3% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.4% | Road | 18.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.3% | Home | 13.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.1% | 10.3% | Home | 25.6% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 4.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.8% | Home | 20.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 8.2% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.0% | Home | 31.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 30.5% | 5.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.6% | Home | 22.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 21.7% | 8.7% | Road | 21.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 5.9% |
| Dillon Gee | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.6% | Home | 17.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 38.1% | 7.1% | Road | 40.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 7.1% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.4% | 8.9% | Road | 25.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 36.5% | 1.9% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.5% | Road | 17.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.4% | 4.8% | Road | 16.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.0% | 6.6% | Road | 22.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 10.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.6% | Home | 20.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.6% | 7.7% | Home | 27.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 6.5% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 19.4% | 22.6% | Home | 0.0% | 40.0% | L14 Days | ||
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.7% | 5.8% | Home | 25.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.5% | Road | 11.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.1% | Road | 18.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.8% | Home | 15.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.8% | Road | 20.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.7% | Home | 20.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 7.9% | Road | 23.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.8% | 4.6% | Home | 23.8% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 3.7% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.3% | 8.3% | Road | 14.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 3.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.8% | 5.4% | Road | 30.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 3.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 23.6% | 12.4% | Road | 24.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 6.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.5% | Home | 26.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 0.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.6% | Home | 20.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | RH | 19.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 13.1% | 6.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.9% | 8.7% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.8% | 11.6% |
| Indians | Road | 19.6% | 9.3% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 19.8% | 8.8% | RH | 19.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.9% |
| Giants | Road | 19.8% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.2% | 6.0% | RH | 23.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.2% |
| Angels | Road | 21.7% | 9.6% | LH | 18.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 7.0% | RH | 21.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Mets | Road | 19.3% | 8.6% | RH | 19.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.1% | 8.3% | RH | 23.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.4% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.1% | 11.0% | LH | 23.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.2% | 10.0% | LH | 18.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 8.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.4% | RH | 22.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 4.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.0% | 9.4% | RH | 23.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 31.8% | 8.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.9% | 7.5% | LH | 20.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.7% | 6.0% | RH | 20.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.8% |
| Astros | Road | 18.2% | 9.2% | RH | 18.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.7% | 10.2% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 8.9% | LH | 19.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 9.9% | LH | 21.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.1% | 10.1% | RH | 22.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Home | 25.3% | 9.8% | LH | 27.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.3% | 8.8% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.1% | 8.6% | RH | 24.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.5% | 9.2% | RH | 18.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.5% | 9.1% | RH | 25.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 34.0% | 11.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.2% | 9.9% | RH | 23.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 11.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 6.9% | RH | 22.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 7.1% | LH | 22.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 4.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.1% | 14.1% | 5.9% | 2017 | 24.0% | 15.4% | -2.0% | Road | 27.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 33.3% | -3.4% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 2017 | 29.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | Road | 32.2% | 17.1% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | -5.9% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.8% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 2017 | 28.8% | 11.1% | 14.6% | Home | 29.8% | 12.8% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 31.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 2017 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 1.4% | Home | 34.6% | 8.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.1% | -3.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 2017 | 35.4% | 7.0% | 17.4% | Home | 37.2% | 10.9% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 33.4% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 2017 | 37.8% | 8.2% | 21.6% | Home | 33.1% | 9.8% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 13.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.0% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 2017 | 40.8% | 8.3% | 24.1% | Home | 38.9% | 15.5% | 24.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 8.3% | -5.8% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 29.0% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 2017 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 37.5% | Road | 29.0% | 7.7% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| Dillon Gee | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 15.0% | 20.0% | -20.0% | Home | 28.1% | 12.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 20.0% | -20.0% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 36.4% | 16.7% | 22.8% | 2017 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 22.8% | Road | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 16.7% | 22.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 2017 | 33.6% | 16.0% | 7.2% | Road | 30.7% | 10.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | -12.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 36.3% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 2017 | 37.0% | 13.3% | 21.0% | Road | 35.6% | 9.9% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 42.5% | 23.1% | 25.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.2% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 2017 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 17.4% | Road | 36.1% | 14.7% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 26.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 37.7% | 18.2% | 17.1% | Road | 34.8% | 14.1% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 28.4% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 2017 | 26.0% | 12.0% | 0.5% | Home | 31.0% | 24.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 11.8% | Home | 23.0% | 8.9% | -1.0% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 38.9% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 2017 | 38.9% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Home | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | L14 Days | |||
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.8% | 6.5% | 17.3% | 2017 | 28.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | Home | 30.4% | 5.1% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.3% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 15.4% | Road | 30.8% | 13.7% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.4% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 2017 | 34.0% | 19.4% | 19.0% | Road | 38.5% | 16.7% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 25.0% | 10.8% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.1% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 2017 | 27.9% | 2.1% | 5.8% | Home | 33.6% | 15.8% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 2017 | 28.2% | 13.0% | 8.5% | Road | 28.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 57.1% | 18.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 2017 | 34.0% | 13.9% | 15.6% | Home | 30.1% | 12.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 13.3% | 24.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 2017 | 30.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | Road | 30.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 23.1% | 23.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.3% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 2017 | 34.0% | 21.2% | 15.2% | Home | 34.7% | 16.7% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.8% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 2017 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 15.0% | Road | 31.9% | 14.1% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 14.3% | 16.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 2017 | 26.1% | 11.6% | 5.1% | Road | 31.3% | 12.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | -2.8% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2017 | 31.9% | 14.8% | 14.5% | Road | 30.1% | 14.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 25.0% | 20.6% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.1% | 12.2% | 21.2% | 2017 | 42.9% | 11.3% | 25.7% | Home | 40.8% | 17.0% | 25.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 33.1% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 2017 | 29.3% | 14.5% | 13.5% | Home | 32.8% | 15.7% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 9.1% | -11.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 31.7% | 12.1% | 14.7% | RH | 31.1% | 10.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.9% | 13.6% | 12.6% |
| Reds | Home | 28.6% | 14.6% | 6.9% | RH | 28.6% | 13.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 19.6% | 2.8% |
| Indians | Road | 36.2% | 11.0% | 19.2% | RH | 34.3% | 12.9% | 18.1% | L7Days | 38.0% | 12.2% | 24.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.0% | 14.8% | 11.5% | RH | 31.2% | 14.8% | 13.8% | L7Days | 27.4% | 18.0% | 9.5% |
| Giants | Road | 30.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | RH | 28.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 30.4% | 13.9% | 12.6% | RH | 28.5% | 13.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 36.4% | 8.8% | 16.7% |
| Angels | Road | 32.5% | 11.2% | 13.7% | LH | 31.1% | 10.4% | 14.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 16.7% | 5.4% |
| Royals | Home | 31.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | RH | 31.8% | 11.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 35.1% | 5.1% | 17.2% |
| Mets | Road | 38.7% | 16.3% | 22.0% | RH | 35.3% | 12.2% | 17.8% | L7Days | 34.6% | 12.9% | 19.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 40.1% | 17.5% | 27.4% | RH | 36.3% | 15.8% | 19.7% | L7Days | 30.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.4% | 19.8% | 7.7% | LH | 28.9% | 13.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 39.1% | 19.0% | 26.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 11.3% | 10.0% | LH | 29.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 15.4% | 19.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.7% | 13.1% | 6.5% | RH | 30.1% | 14.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 15.3% | 5.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.4% | 15.1% | 13.4% | RH | 33.0% | 14.7% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 12.5% | 0.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.6% | 11.2% | 6.1% | LH | 29.2% | 16.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 29.4% | 16.1% | 14.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 13.2% | 9.1% | RH | 30.9% | 13.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 28.7% | 20.5% | 5.7% |
| Astros | Road | 31.1% | 15.0% | 13.4% | RH | 31.1% | 15.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 29.6% | 23.3% | 12.9% |
| Twins | Road | 32.5% | 13.9% | 17.1% | LH | 31.6% | 6.9% | 14.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 19.6% | 16.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | LH | 28.9% | 19.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.1% | 14.5% | 37.1% | RH | 42.3% | 12.7% | 27.5% | L7Days | 51.3% | 20.4% | 40.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.8% | 16.0% | 11.7% | RH | 30.8% | 15.8% | 10.9% | L7Days | 30.1% | 20.9% | 15.4% |
| Rays | Home | 36.0% | 14.5% | 17.4% | LH | 34.0% | 11.7% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.7% | 20.0% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.5% | 11.7% | 8.5% | RH | 30.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.8% | 18.1% | 17.5% | RH | 35.1% | 16.5% | 18.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 18.8% | 9.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.5% | 12.6% | 12.5% | RH | 35.3% | 9.8% | 17.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 20.0% | -1.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.8% | 18.6% | 16.9% | RH | 33.8% | 18.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 36.5% | 15.4% | 17.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.5% | 16.7% | 21.6% | RH | 34.5% | 13.6% | 19.7% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.5% | 10.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.5% | 15.6% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 13.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.7% | 4.4% |
| Padres | Road | 30.1% | 14.6% | 8.4% | LH | 28.0% | 10.2% | 5.3% | L7Days | 35.2% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.6% | 11.2% | 15.9% | RH | 30.6% | 12.1% | 11.4% | L7Days | 30.8% | 12.5% | 6.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 21.2% | 10.5% | 2.02 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 20.0% | 8.5% | 2.35 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.11 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 16.1% | 6.7% | 2.40 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.43 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.51 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.46 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.5% | 10.0% | 2.25 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.37 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.0% | 12.9% | 2.25 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 2.33 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 19.2% | 9.0% | 2.13 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.43 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 47.1% | 10.1% | 4.66 | 47.1% | 10.1% | 4.66 |
| Dillon Gee | TEX | 18.5% | 11.3% | 1.64 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 1.64 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 38.1% | 15.1% | 2.52 | 38.1% | 15.1% | 2.52 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 29.0% | 10.7% | 2.71 | 28.6% | 12.4% | 2.31 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 15.9% | 7.6% | 2.09 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.43 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.0% | 7.1% | 1.83 | 8.8% | 6.6% | 1.33 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 31.5% | 15.2% | 2.07 | 31.4% | 14.6% | 2.15 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 15.4% | 9.4% | 1.64 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 1.85 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.5% | 11.2% | 2.37 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 2.19 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 19.4% | 6.5% | 2.98 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 3.12 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 30.2% | 14.3% | 2.11 | 31.6% | 18.9% | 1.67 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 35.0% | 15.0% | 2.33 | 35.0% | 15.0% | 2.33 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 18.5% | 8.3% | 2.23 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 2.11 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 19.1% | 7.5% | 2.55 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 2.72 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.0% | 7.8% | 2.95 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 3.04 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 14.8% | 8.6% | 1.72 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 2.02 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 27.2% | 12.5% | 2.18 | 29.1% | 12.7% | 2.29 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 20.5% | 13.2% | 1.55 | 25.0% | 14.5% | 1.72 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 14.8% | 5.1% | 2.90 | 11.8% | 3.8% | 3.11 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 33.6% | 15.7% | 2.14 | 35.0% | 16.2% | 2.16 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 27.8% | 13.0% | 2.14 | 27.8% | 13.0% | 2.14 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 30.2% | 13.2% | 2.29 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 2.09 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.13 |
While many are of the small sample size variety, look at all of the enormous strikeout and swinging strike rates today!
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 5.06 | 3.93 | -1.13 | 3.78 | -1.28 | 3.99 | -1.07 | 3.17 | -1.89 | 5.63 | 3.86 | -1.77 | 3.84 | -1.79 | 4.86 | -0.77 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 3.79 | 4.3 | 0.51 | 4.02 | 0.23 | 3.31 | -0.48 | 5.57 | 1.78 | 1.42 | 4.58 | 3.16 | 4.29 | 2.87 | 2.86 | 1.44 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 3.49 | 4.66 | 1.17 | 4.45 | 0.96 | 4.17 | 0.68 | 5.81 | 2.32 | 4.34 | 4.56 | 0.22 | 4.18 | -0.16 | 4.08 | -0.26 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.38 | 3.74 | 0.36 | 3.47 | 0.09 | 3.05 | -0.33 | 3.57 | 0.19 | 3.74 | 3.14 | -0.6 | 2.92 | -0.82 | 2.31 | -1.43 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 3.3 | 4.26 | 0.96 | 4.34 | 1.04 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 5.04 | 1.74 | 3.86 | 4.22 | 0.36 | 4.63 | 0.77 | 4.12 | 0.26 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.74 | 3.42 | -0.32 | 3.35 | -0.39 | 2.73 | -1.01 | 1.87 | -1.87 | 3.97 | 2.83 | -1.14 | 2.52 | -1.45 | 2.11 | -1.86 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.47 | 4.66 | 0.19 | 4.7 | 0.23 | 3.97 | -0.5 | 4.37 | -0.10 | 4.94 | 4.21 | -0.73 | 4.51 | -0.43 | 4.44 | -0.5 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 4.5 | 1.59 | -2.91 | 1.1 | -3.4 | 3.05 | -1.45 | 3.54 | -0.96 | 4.5 | 1.59 | -2.91 | 1.1 | -3.4 | 3.05 | -1.45 |
| Dillon Gee | TEX | 0 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 0 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 2.7 | 2.51 | -0.19 | 3.14 | 0.44 | 3.65 | 0.95 | 2.67 | -0.03 | 2.7 | 2.51 | -0.19 | 3.14 | 0.44 | 3.65 | 0.95 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.24 | 3.38 | -0.86 | 3.25 | -0.99 | 3.58 | -0.66 | 3.60 | -0.64 | 4.5 | 3.4 | -1.1 | 3.22 | -1.28 | 3.17 | -1.33 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 4.76 | 5.27 | 0.51 | 5.71 | 0.95 | 5.68 | 0.92 | 7.29 | 2.53 | 7.43 | 5.74 | -1.69 | 6.16 | -1.27 | 8.04 | 0.61 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.92 | 4.23 | 1.31 | 3.84 | 0.92 | 3.17 | 0.25 | 5.05 | 2.13 | 3.86 | 4.91 | 1.05 | 4.51 | 0.65 | 3.93 | 0.07 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.97 | 3.35 | -0.62 | 3.07 | -0.9 | 3.58 | -0.39 | 2.31 | -1.66 | 4.31 | 3.28 | -1.03 | 3.03 | -1.28 | 4.13 | -0.18 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.18 | 4.85 | 1.67 | 4.51 | 1.33 | 4.36 | 1.18 | 5.69 | 2.51 | 2.45 | 4.1 | 1.65 | 3.88 | 1.43 | 3.72 | 1.27 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.6 | 3.48 | -1.12 | 3.57 | -1.03 | 4.02 | -0.58 | 3.78 | -0.82 | 4.55 | 3.72 | -0.83 | 3.98 | -0.57 | 4.31 | -0.24 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 2.7 | 6.73 | 4.03 | 6.49 | 3.79 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 3.18 | 5.74 | 2.56 | 5.73 | 2.55 | 3.58 | 0.4 | ||
| James Paxton | SEA | 1.26 | 3.09 | 1.83 | 2.98 | 1.72 | 1.44 | 0.18 | 1.75 | 0.49 | 0 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 1.59 | 1.75 | 0.16 | 1.5 | -0.09 | 0.58 | -1.01 | 2.80 | 1.21 | 1.59 | 1.78 | 0.19 | 1.5 | -0.09 | 0.58 | -1.01 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.68 | 4.41 | -0.27 | 4.4 | -0.28 | 5.27 | 0.59 | 4.61 | -0.07 | 4.97 | 4.31 | -0.66 | 4.42 | -0.55 | 6.08 | 1.11 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.81 | 4.4 | 0.59 | 4.19 | 0.38 | 2.81 | -1 | 3.76 | -0.05 | 6.11 | 4.72 | -1.39 | 4.26 | -1.85 | 2.88 | -3.23 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.6 | 4.18 | -1.42 | 4.36 | -1.24 | 4.29 | -1.31 | 4.45 | -1.15 | 7.67 | 4.07 | -3.6 | 4.37 | -3.3 | 4.46 | -3.21 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.92 | 5.18 | -0.74 | 5.21 | -0.71 | 5.29 | -0.63 | 6.63 | 0.71 | 4.13 | 4.57 | 0.44 | 4.42 | 0.29 | 4.28 | 0.15 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.86 | 3.49 | -0.37 | 3.8 | -0.06 | 3.59 | -0.27 | 5.93 | 2.07 | 5.35 | 3.26 | -2.09 | 3.54 | -1.81 | 4.27 | -1.08 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.34 | 4.03 | -2.31 | 4.08 | -2.26 | 5.18 | -1.16 | 5.01 | -1.33 | 9.12 | 3.61 | -5.51 | 3.78 | -5.34 | 6.33 | -2.79 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.53 | 5.17 | 0.64 | 4.98 | 0.45 | 4.31 | -0.22 | 6.92 | 2.39 | 4.34 | 5.24 | 0.9 | 4.91 | 0.57 | 4.39 | 0.05 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.56 | 2.81 | 0.25 | 3.25 | 0.69 | 3 | 0.44 | 1.84 | -0.72 | 2.45 | 2.53 | 0.08 | 2.82 | 0.37 | 2.88 | 0.43 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.1 | 4.06 | 0.96 | 3.91 | 0.81 | 4.08 | 0.98 | 2.61 | -0.49 | 3.1 | 4.06 | 0.96 | 3.91 | 0.81 | 4.08 | 0.98 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3 | 3.59 | 0.59 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 3.28 | 0.28 | 2.98 | -0.02 | 2.48 | 3.71 | 1.23 | 4.02 | 1.54 | 3.29 | 0.81 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.89 | 4.41 | -0.48 | 4.61 | -0.28 | 4.79 | -0.1 | 6.20 | 1.31 | 5.47 | 5.04 | -0.43 | 4.85 | -0.62 | 4.67 | -0.8 |
Aaron Nola has an elevated BABIP despite a low LD rate and lots of weak ground balls. His 70.1 GB% is probably a bit low for a guy with an above average strikeout rate as well.
Jacob deGrom may struggle to reach his estimators because his defense can’t catch the ball.
Jake Arrieta doesn’t have a poor BABIP profile, which bodes well for a mark nearly 100 points higher than last year, which in turn should bode well for his 67% strand rate.
James Paxton has stranded 82.5% of runners without allowing a HR yet this season. That won’t last, but he’s in a big park against an offense that has struggled with power against LHP despite Sano and Dozier.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.297 | 0.337 | 0.04 | 56.3% | 0.167 | 7.7% | 83.0% | 85.6 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 96 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.287 | 0.346 | 0.059 | 48.4% | 0.223 | 10.9% | 89.9% | 85.2 | 4.20% | 3.00% | 192 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.290 | 0.258 | -0.032 | 46.5% | 0.223 | 6.3% | 89.6% | 87 | 6.80% | 5.10% | 205 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 47.2% | 0.232 | 21.4% | 87.0% | 84.5 | 2.80% | 1.90% | 145 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.306 | 0.295 | -0.011 | 36.5% | 0.218 | 9.9% | 85.5% | 84.6 | 5.10% | 3.40% | 178 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.308 | 0.024 | 43.6% | 0.203 | 13.7% | 81.7% | 89.1 | 6.40% | 4.00% | 204 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.306 | 0.341 | 0.035 | 44.4% | 0.205 | 5.0% | 90.0% | 88.4 | 6.90% | 4.80% | 174 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 0.286 | 0.571 | 0.285 | 25.0% | 0.375 | 0.0% | 76.9% | ||||
| Dillon Gee | TEX | 0.283 | 0.211 | -0.072 | 57.9% | 0.158 | 20.0% | 83.3% | ||||
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 31.8% | 0.136 | 0.0% | 81.5% | ||||
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.310 | 0.326 | 0.016 | 40.1% | 0.234 | 8.0% | 86.3% | 88.1 | 8.60% | 5.40% | 140 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.276 | 0.262 | -0.014 | 32.3% | 0.182 | 13.3% | 87.7% | 90.8 | 11.50% | 8.50% | 200 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.283 | -0.021 | 50.2% | 0.229 | 7.5% | 92.9% | 88.3 | 5.40% | 4.60% | 259 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.324 | 0.338 | 0.014 | 44.6% | 0.226 | 9.1% | 75.4% | 87.1 | 6.50% | 3.80% | 170 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.282 | 0.242 | -0.04 | 57.1% | 0.164 | 8.0% | 88.8% | 85 | 4.20% | 3.10% | 192 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.291 | 0.337 | 0.046 | 41.2% | 0.215 | 10.6% | 80.6% | 86.3 | 7.30% | 4.90% | 177 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.298 | 0.333 | 0.035 | 29.4% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 95.2% | ||||
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.282 | 0.271 | -0.011 | 44.3% | 0.198 | 13.2% | 77.1% | 86 | 1.90% | 1.20% | 107 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.275 | 0.231 | -0.044 | 53.8% | 0.231 | 0.0% | 81.8% | ||||
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.281 | 0.269 | -0.012 | 46.0% | 0.18 | 4.2% | 86.5% | 89 | 9.50% | 7.00% | 200 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.286 | 0.292 | 0.006 | 46.7% | 0.22 | 8.5% | 89.9% | 87.1 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 154 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.274 | 0.315 | 0.041 | 37.8% | 0.205 | 14.3% | 90.3% | 86.8 | 6.40% | 4.30% | 188 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.304 | 0.356 | 0.052 | 43.8% | 0.219 | 11.1% | 86.5% | 89.1 | 9.40% | 7.10% | 212 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.297 | 0.302 | 0.005 | 35.7% | 0.179 | 7.7% | 79.1% | 88.1 | 9.00% | 6.00% | 199 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.284 | 0.339 | 0.055 | 47.4% | 0.189 | 15.2% | 85.6% | 89.8 | 10.70% | 7.70% | 197 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.306 | 0.314 | 0.008 | 44.4% | 0.212 | 8.8% | 90.7% | 88.2 | 4.00% | 3.00% | 200 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.295 | 0.247 | -0.048 | 34.3% | 0.157 | 11.6% | 78.4% | 86.1 | 6.30% | 3.70% | 176 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.302 | 0.231 | -0.071 | 41.2% | 0.191 | 11.1% | 85.5% | 87.3 | 11.60% | 7.00% | 69 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.289 | 0.256 | -0.033 | 39.0% | 0.22 | 14.5% | 80.6% | 88.7 | 6.70% | 4.00% | 163 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.277 | 0.272 | -0.005 | 40.0% | 0.177 | 5.5% | 84.8% | 86.3 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 132 |
Max Scherzer always has my favorite BABIP profile.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
While it may surprise you to see some of these names a bit lower than expected today, remember that these are generally mostly top two tier values on most ordinary days, while a lot of normally third and fourth tier guys are omitted today.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (3) may have workload concerns, but 85-90 pitches at $9K is still a bargain for a guy striking out 30% of batters faced and pitching in Safeco. He’ll likely be a $10K pitcher within the month.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola is probably your guy if you’re not looking to pay up tonight. He hasn’t always had great results, but that’s why the cost is so low. He misses bats at an average rate or slightly better and generates a lot of weak ground balls. When you last three innings, but only allow two balls off the ground, there was probably some poor luck involved.
Chris Archer (2) is one of several $10K pitchers in nice spots tonight. All signs point towards him dominating the White Sox tonight.
Max Scherzer (1) is generally always the top overall arm and is catching a good offense at a good time in a great park. The question is just where to slot in his enormous price tag. There are plenty of pitchers with 30% strikeout potential on today’s board, but most not nearly as dependable as him.
Value Tier Three
Drew Pomeranz has turned it up over his last two starts. He’s in a difficult spot in the Bronx tonight, but may still be able to succeed at a cost below $8.5K on either site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jake Arrieta (4t) is beginning to at least occasionally get results commiserate with his elite peripherals this season. While the contact dominator from the last two seasons may be gone, his increased strikeout rate may actually make him more daily fantasy valuable than last season.
Jacob deGrom (4t) is in a difficult park and adds a DH tonight. Hopefully the arm bounces back from some strange managerial decisions in his last start. He’s still missing bats an elite rate, whatever his other issues are. His 15.2 SwStr% and 31.5 K% sit only behind Scherzer among qualified pitchers today. He’s facing an offense with a 31.8 K% over the last week.
Robbie Ray (4t) allows a ton of hard contact in a difficult park, but the elite strikeout rate keeps him in contention and he still might have the top matchup on the board against the Padres.
David Paulino is a strong prospect in a nice spot in Kansas City. We know he can miss bats, but there’s a question surrounding workload. If they hold him to 85-90 again, he could cover $6.5K.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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