Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 24th
We pretty much have it all today; good pitchers, not so good ones, great matchups, poor ones, and large price gaps between the sites on a full slate after punting the lone afternoon game, so let’s get right to it.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 2.5 | 4.03 | 5.94 | 1.43 | 0.89 | 4.61 | SFO | 111 | 101 | 67 | |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 5 | 2.65 | 6.84 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 2.96 | 3.07 | CLE | 86 | 85 | 111 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -2 | 4.38 | 5.85 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 4.75 | 3.77 | HOU | 96 | 99 | 60 |
| Daniel Wright | CIN | -5.7 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | LOS | 85 | 91 | 89 | |||
| David Price | BOS | 3 | 3.03 | 6.99 | 1.1 | 1.07 | 3.11 | 2.56 | COL | 90 | 91 | 45 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 2.1 | 4.28 | 6.23 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 4.48 | 3.51 | BAL | 113 | 116 | 65 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 6.8 | 4.27 | 6.09 | 1.47 | 1.03 | 4.37 | 4.83 | MIN | 82 | 87 | 57 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -2.6 | 4.05 | 6.13 | 1.2 | 1.03 | 4.35 | 3.85 | KAN | 94 | 94 | 102 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 1.3 | 3.54 | 5.9 | 1.95 | 0.95 | 3 | 4.52 | ARI | 107 | 119 | 96 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 11.6 | 3.54 | 5.63 | 1.08 | 0.97 | 3.29 | 2.97 | STL | 113 | 127 | 103 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -0.6 | 3.62 | 6.72 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 3.93 | 3.45 | SDG | 77 | 66 | 25 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -0.2 | 4 | 5.29 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 4.18 | 2.86 | DET | 114 | 117 | 158 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 5.1 | 4.15 | 5.67 | 1.58 | 1.07 | 3.28 | 3.99 | TEX | 96 | 89 | 75 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -9.4 | 4.06 | 5.96 | 1.62 | 0.96 | 4.76 | 4.49 | ATL | 64 | 75 | 100 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 2.8 | 4.09 | 5.66 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 3.68 | BOS | 135 | 125 | 124 | |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 10.2 | 3.43 | 6.1 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 4.27 | 3.99 | CHW | 90 | 93 | 76 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -6.1 | 3.97 | 6.26 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 3.85 | 4.37 | MIL | 77 | 94 | 46 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -6.6 | 3.93 | 6.47 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 4.22 | 3.18 | PHI | 81 | 77 | 77 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -14.1 | 4.33 | 5.45 | 1.82 | 0.9 | 4.24 | 5.2 | SEA | 94 | 109 | 116 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13 | 4.46 | 5.78 | 2.56 | 1.07 | 4.04 | 4.37 | ANA | 99 | 90 | 107 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -3.5 | 3.41 | 6.24 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 3.59 | 3.8 | WAS | 87 | 86 | 85 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -13.6 | 4.14 | 5.81 | 1.4 | 0.97 | 3.67 | 4.47 | CHC | 114 | 111 | 80 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 4.8 | 3.98 | 5.26 | 1.82 | 0.9 | 3.49 | 5.63 | CIN | 66 | 72 | 38 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -7.7 | 3.84 | 5.61 | 1.13 | 0.9 | 4.05 | 3.86 | OAK | 100 | 88 | 75 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -1.4 | 3.96 | 5.9 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 3.75 | 3.78 | TOR | 98 | 97 | 101 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 3.4 | 4.41 | 6.42 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 4.73 | 3.53 | NYY | 101 | 96 | 105 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -6.8 | 4.46 | 5.88 | 1.15 | 0.95 | 4.77 | 4.8 | PIT | 118 | 114 | 115 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 4.9 | 2.71 | 6.11 | 1.32 | 1.02 | 2.87 | 2.74 | NYM | 109 | 106 | 87 |
Chris Sale has pitched consecutive complete games and has only allowed more than one run twice since his second start and no more than two. If he’s going to keep finishing games, maybe he’ll be worth it with his new pitch to contact approach….as long as he keeps striking out batters too (nine in two of his last three starts). I have some skepticism that that will continue though. Cleveland has struggled to hit for power against LHP (6.0 HR/FB).
David Price struck out just five in his last start and that many or less in four of his last six, but has allowed just three ERs over his last two starts with a hard contact rate just half of what it had been for the season prior to those starts. To make the lower strikeout games less concerning, his SwStr has been at least 12% in all but one start this season. The Rockies are a below average offense on the road with a 25.0 K% vs LHP, though a 20.7 HR/FB that has to be taken with a grain of salt away from Coors. They have been particularly cold away from home over the last week (-2.4 Hard-Soft%).
Jeff Samardzija gets San Diego for the third time in a month and like teammate Johnny Cueto, he dominated them in his last start, but unlike Cueto, was touched up for five runs in the previous one. He’s allowed a total of five runs, pitching at least 7.2 innings in all four starts since, striking out at least eight in three of them. The weary Padres came into last night playing two straight extra-inning games, including 17 on Sunday and may still be feeling it. Even if they’re fully rested, they’re still the worst offense in baseball vs RHP, striking out a quarter of the time.
Jhoulys Chacin has not pitched well in May at all, combining poor control with frequent hard contact and a disappearing K%. Why could we possibly be talking about him up here then? The Rangers have struggled against RHP and been terrible against over the last week (19.5 K-BB%). Additionally, Odor may may start serving his suspension tonight, so be sure to check the lineup.
Justin Verlander has gone at least seven innings with eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. He’s striking out a quarter of his batters with his highest SwStr% since 2012. The Phillies are a pretty awful offense. They don’t strike out a ton, but don’t walk or hit the ball hard (25.4 Hard% vs RHP).
Matt Harvey is a very high risk proposition, who looked terrible last time out even though his defense betrayed him. It probably would have happened the next inning. He faces the same team that can’t hit RHP. They have a 9.9 BB%, but we all know why that is. They have just a 5.0 HR/FB over the last week and were shut down by Bartolo Colon with a bad back last night. The Mets keep saying that Harvey has looked great in his bullpens, but can’t carry his mechanics over to the game. It may or may not happen tonight.
Mike Bolsinger returned with a weak offering against an Angels offense that does not strike out in his first start. His 8.7 SwStr% was right on his career rate and he’s been able to turn that into a league average career strikeout rate. Now that he got that out of the way, if we can expect him to be something close to the league average pitcher he was last year, he’s in the only other spot that can compare to San Diego tonight. The Reds have just a 5.8 HR/FB on the road. The Reds are now the second worst offense vs RHP (17.1 K-BB%).
Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least seven in each of his last eight starts and dominated this offense in his last start. He’s gone at least six innings in every start this year. He has the top K% and second best SwStr% on the board today. The Mets have a 29.5 K% over the last week with a mark just above average (22.7%) against RHP. The Mets do have quite a bit of power vs RHP (15.6 HR/FB) and on the road (17.3 HR/FB, 22.5 Hard-Soft%) with a 21.7 HR/FB over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Jason Hammel (.280 BABIP – 83.6 LOB% – 7.3 HR/FB) has been extremely good, even if not as good as his ERA suggests, but the issue with him is that he’s only been allowed to go past six innings once and the Cardinals are an extremely difficult matchup against RHPs at home. He does have a 19.0 K-BB% on the road since last season and has struck out 15 of his last 53 batters. I could almost be swayed if I thought there was a chance he’d get seven innings.
Julio Teheran (.253 BABIP – 78.0 LOB% – 7.8 HR/FB) only really has a HR/FB much off from his career rates, but has struck out just 13 of his last 78 batters. The Brewers strike out an amazing 27.1% vs RHP and 31.1% over the last week, but do have some power (15.7 HR/FB over RHP). He’s viable with some upside on FanDuel for just over $8K, but $9.4K on DraftKings feels a bit difficult to beat.
Ervin Santana (.300 BABIP – 74.2 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) has been the epitome of average. Not that average is bad, but if were looking for a reason why his ERA is a run below his estimators through 37 innings it’s a bit in his HR rate (10.7 career HR/FB), but also in three of his 16 runs being unearned. The Royals have struck out more this season and have been below average overall offensively. Santana is not a terrible selection for just $6.6K on FanDuel, but there’s just not a lot of upside here.
Chris Tillman (.287 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 3.8 HR/FB) is an improved pitcher with a double digit SwStr% and much improved K%, but it’s still difficult to justify his cost today, especially on DraftKings. He has a double digit walk rate and a career 10.7 HR/FB. He has a 0.98 GB/FB this year pitching in Baltimore. He’s in a park that plays similarly friendly for power tonight. The Astros do strike out a lot though (25.5 K% vs RHP).
Jimmy Nelson (.239 BABIP – 79.0 LOB% – 15.1 HR/FB) has been terrible on the road since last season (4.3 K-BB%), while the Braves have been a bit better since Inciarte came off the DL.
Martin Perez (.256 BABIP – 74.9 LOB% – 10.0 HR/FB) has a 1.3 K-BB%. His 58.8 GB% is elite, but his Hard% is up six points since last season.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Francisco Liriano is generally always in play at home and you would think a matchup with the Diamondbacks outside of Arizona would be beneficial, but they’ve been a strong offense vs LHP, leaning strongly right handed now and this is a pitcher who is very difficult to trust with a 12.0 BB% and up and inconsistent strikeout totals from start to start. Arizona had a 9.1 BB% and 19.3 HR/FB (37.5 Hard%) vs LHP. He may hit his upside often enough to clear his $8.5K cost on DraftKings. It’s still high risk, but more borderline there.
Nate Karns has been decent this year from a rates standpoint and is in a decent spot tonight. However, he’s averaged only 5.2 innings over this last two years and has only even surpassed that in half his starts this year. He costs more than the average arm and Houston is the only offense he’s struck out more than five against in his last four starts.
Josh Tomlin might have the upside to be worth $8K if he were still striking batters out at a league average or better rate.
Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t been bad this season and may be better than his ERA for the season, but his K% has dropped below average over the last month, while his cost remains slightly above in a tough spot against the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.
Jeremy Hellickson has been good and is finally living up to his potential with an above average strikeout rate, but still allows a lot of hard contact in the air (17.6 HR/FB) and this would seem like a very dangerous spot for him at an increasing cost against the hottest offense in the league.
Edinson Volquez is usually a pitcher to pick your spots with and this wouldn’t be a terrible one if he hasn’t been awful over his last five starts, allowing at least four runs three times and striking out just two in one of the other two. He’s walked four in two of his last three starts and has just one start with more than five strikeouts since April 10th.
Michael Wacha has been mashed over his last few starts and now has an ERA that meets his estimators and a difficult matchup against the highest walk rate in baseball tonight (11.7 BB% vs RHP).
Daniel Wright is a 25 year old former 10th round pick in 2013, who has pitched just 14 innings above AA. He was working as a swingman before being promoted to AAA, where he threw a complete game with eight strikeouts in his last start. His K% has hovered around average to a bit above at each level of the minors with good control, but occasional issues with HRs.
Kendal Graveman now combines a high HR rate with fewer strikeouts and more walks over the last month.
Jorge de la Rosa
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.5% | Road | 16.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 5.0% | Home | 28.5% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.8% | 8.2% | Road | 16.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.6% |
| Daniel Wright | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.5% | 5.0% | Home | 26.7% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 3.6% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 14.2% | 5.0% | Home | 12.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 1.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 18.4% | 8.8% | Road | 18.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.1% | Home | 17.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.6% | Home | 27.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.9% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.3% | 6.4% | Road | 26.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 7.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.7% | 4.8% | Home | 20.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.9% | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 4.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.7% | Road | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.2% | Road | 16.1% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 8.6% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.5% | Road | 19.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 21.3% | 3.1% | Road | 17.6% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.5% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.3% | Home | 22.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 5.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.5% | Home | 23.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 8.3% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.7% | Road | 17.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 14.0% | 9.2% | Home | 13.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 23.7% | 5.3% | Road | 22.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.8% | Home | 20.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.2% | Home | 22.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.9% | 9.1% | Home | 21.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 17.4% | 6.1% | Home | 19.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 4.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.4% | 6.9% | Road | 13.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.9% | Road | 15.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 5.0% | Home | 30.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 8.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 11.1% | RH | 16.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Road | 23.0% | 7.4% | LH | 21.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.0% |
| Astros | Home | 26.2% | 11.4% | RH | 25.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 18.8% | 8.2% | RH | 19.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.3% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.5% | 6.4% | LH | 25.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 6.7% | RH | 21.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.5% |
| Twins | Home | 18.5% | 7.3% | RH | 23.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.0% |
| Royals | Road | 19.9% | 5.5% | RH | 19.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 18.8% | 7.2% | LH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.8% | 8.7% | RH | 19.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 10.5% |
| Padres | Road | 26.4% | 6.5% | RH | 24.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.1% | 8.0% | RH | 23.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.1% | 8.4% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 4.2% |
| Braves | Home | 21.9% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.8% | 7.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.9% | 9.3% | LH | 21.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.3% | 10.8% | RH | 19.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.1% | 10.5% | RH | 27.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 31.1% | 8.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 5.9% | RH | 21.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 9.8% | RH | 19.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 10.2% |
| Angels | Road | 15.8% | 7.7% | LH | 16.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 11.1% | RH | 20.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 12.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.2% | 11.3% | RH | 19.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Road | 22.5% | 6.7% | RH | 23.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 6.2% | RH | 18.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 5.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.0% | 8.9% | RH | 23.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.7% | 9.1% | RH | 18.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.9% | 9.3% | RH | 18.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 5.4% |
| Mets | Road | 23.8% | 8.1% | RH | 22.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 7.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 2016 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 13.5% | Road | 27.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 25.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 2016 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 1.1% | Home | 23.5% | 14.3% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 2016 | 29.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | Road | 29.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% |
| Daniel Wright | Reds | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 2016 | 36.0% | 10.4% | 19.3% | Home | 29.6% | 8.5% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 2016 | 30.8% | 13.3% | 11.9% | Home | 27.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 9.1% | -2.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 28.4% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 2016 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 1.7% | Road | 26.9% | 11.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.8% | -2.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 2016 | 27.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | Home | 31.3% | 11.9% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 26.0% | 12.7% | 1.4% | 2016 | 35.6% | 23.1% | 14.4% | Home | 26.9% | 18.2% | -1.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 33.3% | 18.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 2016 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 3.1% | Road | 29.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2016 | 28.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | Home | 27.6% | 12.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 34.8% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.8% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 2016 | 32.9% | 17.6% | 11.2% | Road | 35.1% | 14.9% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -9.4% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 35.1% | 14.4% | 18.5% | 2016 | 36.7% | 17.2% | 16.7% | Road | 39.5% | 23.1% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 2016 | 33.5% | 15.1% | 10.1% | Road | 29.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 0.0% | 21.9% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 2016 | 37.1% | 33.3% | 18.5% | Road | 32.3% | 12.9% | 13.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 33.5% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 2016 | 38.2% | 14.5% | 24.2% | Road | 35.4% | 12.2% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 22.2% | 9.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.3% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 2016 | 36.8% | 7.8% | 20.8% | Home | 35.6% | 9.1% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2016 | 28.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | Home | 27.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.9% | -2.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.8% | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2016 | 30.9% | 25.0% | 14.3% | Road | 26.3% | 22.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 2016 | 28.7% | 10.0% | 12.2% | Home | 18.8% | 8.3% | -2.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 27.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 2016 | 29.8% | 10.4% | 6.2% | Road | 26.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 16.7% | 11.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 2016 | 29.2% | 9.1% | 13.0% | Home | 27.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 2016 | 23.5% | 20.0% | -11.8% | Home | 29.5% | 10.3% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 20.0% | -11.8% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.9% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 2016 | 33.6% | 11.6% | 16.0% | Home | 34.2% | 12.1% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 2016 | 30.8% | 16.7% | 14.7% | Home | 28.5% | 10.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 25.7% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2016 | 28.5% | 13.8% | 8.7% | Road | 25.2% | 9.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 17.6% | -5.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 2016 | 38.0% | 18.0% | 24.1% | Road | 28.1% | 7.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 32.5% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 2016 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.0% | Home | 26.6% | 13.2% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 18.8% | -6.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 27.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | RH | 31.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% |
| Indians | Road | 30.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | LH | 30.0% | 6.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 34.7% | 14.4% | 21.4% |
| Astros | Home | 35.3% | 13.0% | 19.3% | RH | 34.0% | 15.2% | 16.6% | L7Days | 31.8% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 30.1% | 14.0% | 11.7% | RH | 32.2% | 10.6% | 15.5% | L7Days | 32.3% | 12.9% | 18.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 13.9% | 9.8% | LH | 31.8% | 20.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.5% | -2.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.5% | 16.6% | 13.6% | RH | 31.4% | 16.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Home | 32.3% | 8.4% | 14.3% | RH | 32.2% | 11.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 8.8% | 13.0% |
| Royals | Road | 26.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | RH | 28.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | LH | 37.5% | 19.3% | 19.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 17.2% | 10.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.9% | 14.2% | 17.2% | RH | 33.1% | 15.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.0% | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| Padres | Road | 33.7% | 13.5% | 17.1% | RH | 30.1% | 9.3% | 13.3% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 36.4% | 14.2% | 21.3% | RH | 34.7% | 14.5% | 18.2% | L7Days | 40.6% | 19.4% | 29.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.1% | 10.3% | 4.2% | RH | 28.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.2% | 20.4% |
| Braves | Home | 28.9% | 4.3% | 10.8% | RH | 23.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 12.7% | -1.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% | LH | 28.4% | 14.9% | 4.7% | L7Days | 35.2% | 16.0% | 13.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.4% | 9.2% | 4.1% | RH | 27.7% | 10.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 27.0% | 12.6% | 6.4% | RH | 30.9% | 15.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 28.8% | 9.4% | 2.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.4% | 10.9% | 8.7% | RH | 25.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | L7Days | 26.5% | 11.6% | 4.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 26.2% | 12.7% | 5.1% | RH | 29.7% | 13.6% | 11.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 27.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | LH | 25.2% | 10.3% | 3.7% | L7Days | 28.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.8% | 10.0% | 13.1% | RH | 32.3% | 11.0% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.9% | 5.0% | 17.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 31.8% | 14.1% | 13.7% | RH | 31.6% | 11.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 34.2% | 14.8% | 11.7% |
| Reds | Road | 29.5% | 5.8% | 11.4% | RH | 31.7% | 11.8% | 14.7% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.3% | 15.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.6% | 12.4% | 11.7% | RH | 30.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 29.6% | 11.3% | 13.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 13.6% | 12.5% | RH | 33.8% | 13.7% | 17.1% | L7Days | 40.0% | 19.1% | 26.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.3% | RH | 24.3% | 14.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.9% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% | RH | 27.4% | 9.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 30.4% | 4.2% | 9.6% |
| Mets | Road | 35.7% | 17.3% | 22.5% | RH | 34.2% | 15.6% | 16.4% | L7Days | 32.9% | 21.7% | 4.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 18.0% | 6.1% | 2.95 | 13.6% | 6.4% | 2.13 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 24.5% | 9.2% | 2.66 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 3.21 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 25.6% | 10.4% | 2.46 | 28.8% | 10.2% | 2.82 |
| Daniel Wright | CIN | ||||||
| David Price | BOS | 29.4% | 13.9% | 2.12 | 27.0% | 12.4% | 2.18 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 13.4% | 5.1% | 2.63 | 13.7% | 5.2% | 2.63 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.15 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 2.17 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.1% | 9.8% | 2.05 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.70 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 23.9% | 11.4% | 2.10 | 24.3% | 11.7% | 2.08 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 22.5% | 10.0% | 2.25 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.16 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.11 | 25.7% | 11.5% | 2.23 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 24.2% | 12.0% | 2.02 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.16 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 2.01 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 2.60 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 26.7% | 11.2% | 2.38 | 27.8% | 13.7% | 2.03 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.4% | 6.8% | 2.56 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 2.52 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.27 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.38 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 25.4% | 11.3% | 2.25 | 25.4% | 12.2% | 2.08 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 17.2% | 9.6% | 1.79 | 14.8% | 8.7% | 1.70 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.8% | 7.9% | 1.75 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.12 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 19.6% | 10.7% | 1.83 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.98 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.48 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 2.34 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 9.5% | 8.7% | 1.09 | 9.5% | 8.7% | 1.09 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 25.1% | 10.6% | 2.37 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.32 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.54 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 2.28 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 17.5% | 10.4% | 1.68 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 1.55 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.03 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 30.9% | 12.1% | 2.55 | 32.9% | 12.3% | 2.67 |
We are already at the point where every pitcher who has made more than seven starts this year (besides the knuckleballer) conforms.
Chris Sale has a SwStr below 8% in four of his last six starts, but just cracked double digits in his most recent against Houston. He truly has been trying to generate contact.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.93 | 4.5 | -0.43 | 4.6 | -0.33 | 4.43 | -0.5 | 5.93 | 5.51 | -0.42 | 5.68 | -0.25 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 1.58 | 3.25 | 1.67 | 3.41 | 1.83 | 2.78 | 1.2 | 1.41 | 3.34 | 1.93 | 3.57 | 2.16 | 2.91 | 1.5 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 2.61 | 3.84 | 1.23 | 3.96 | 1.35 | 2.86 | 0.25 | 1.62 | 3.66 | 2.04 | 3.74 | 2.12 | 2.62 | 1 |
| Daniel Wright | CIN | ||||||||||||||
| David Price | BOS | 5.53 | 2.9 | -2.63 | 2.88 | -2.65 | 2.69 | -2.84 | 4.54 | 3.08 | -1.46 | 2.87 | -1.67 | 2.39 | -2.15 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 4.22 | 4.73 | 0.51 | 4.39 | 0.17 | 4.54 | 0.32 | 3.34 | 4.72 | 1.38 | 4.43 | 1.09 | 4.28 | 0.94 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.79 | 4.24 | 0.45 | 4.2 | 0.41 | 3.97 | 0.18 | 6 | 4.63 | -1.37 | 4.76 | -1.24 | 4.94 | -1.06 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.13 | 4.2 | 1.07 | 3.95 | 0.82 | 3.53 | 0.4 | 3.12 | 4.13 | 1.01 | 3.76 | 0.64 | 3.99 | 0.87 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 4.63 | 4.12 | -0.51 | 3.97 | -0.66 | 5.17 | 0.54 | 4.88 | 3.63 | -1.25 | 3.61 | -1.27 | 4.6 | -0.28 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.31 | 4 | 1.69 | 3.89 | 1.58 | 3.35 | 1.04 | 3.14 | 3.81 | 0.67 | 3.58 | 0.44 | 3.73 | 0.59 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.66 | 3.48 | 0.82 | 3.33 | 0.67 | 2.78 | 0.12 | 2.41 | 2.98 | 0.57 | 2.93 | 0.52 | 2.24 | -0.17 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.99 | 3.52 | -0.47 | 3.51 | -0.48 | 4.26 | 0.27 | 3.23 | 3.66 | 0.43 | 3.52 | 0.29 | 4.21 | 0.98 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 5.21 | 3.72 | -1.49 | 3.4 | -1.81 | 3.91 | -1.3 | 6.41 | 4.52 | -1.89 | 4.18 | -2.23 | 5.32 | -1.09 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.07 | 4.37 | 1.3 | 4.25 | 1.18 | 4.61 | 1.54 | 2.76 | 4.26 | 1.5 | 4.14 | 1.38 | 3.68 | 0.92 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 10.18 | 3.83 | -6.35 | 4 | -6.18 | 6.86 | -3.32 | 12 | 4.51 | -7.49 | 5.83 | -6.17 | 16.74 | 4.74 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.56 | 4.02 | 0.46 | 4.1 | 0.54 | 4.51 | 0.95 | 4.31 | 4.26 | -0.05 | 4.27 | -0.04 | 5.18 | 0.87 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 2.73 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 4.31 | 1.58 | 3.68 | 0.95 | 0.8 | 3.74 | 2.94 | 4.03 | 3.23 | 2.83 | 2.03 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.58 | 3.73 | -0.85 | 4.1 | -0.48 | 3.95 | -0.63 | 3.74 | 3.75 | 0.01 | 4.2 | 0.46 | 3.4 | -0.34 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 5.48 | 4.37 | -1.11 | 4.33 | -1.15 | 5.91 | 0.43 | 7.92 | 4.83 | -3.09 | 4.95 | -2.97 | 7.35 | -0.57 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.48 | 5.09 | 1.61 | 4.74 | 1.26 | 4.54 | 1.06 | 2.67 | 4.65 | 1.98 | 4.37 | 1.7 | 4.09 | 1.42 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 5.77 | 4.08 | -1.69 | 3.84 | -1.93 | 3.63 | -2.14 | 6.23 | 3.53 | -2.7 | 3.34 | -2.89 | 3.65 | -2.58 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.03 | 4.05 | 0.02 | 3.81 | -0.22 | 3.48 | -0.55 | 4.63 | 4.43 | -0.2 | 4.4 | -0.23 | 4.27 | -0.36 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 6.23 | 5.61 | -0.62 | 5.34 | -0.89 | 6.53 | 0.3 | 6.23 | 5.63 | -0.6 | 5.34 | -0.89 | 6.53 | 0.3 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.33 | 3.79 | 0.46 | 3.62 | 0.29 | 3.57 | 0.24 | 2.35 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 3.43 | 1.08 | 2.84 | 0.49 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.44 | 3.27 | -1.17 | 3.25 | -1.19 | 3.77 | -0.67 | 3.48 | 3.46 | -0.02 | 3.47 | -0.01 | 3.62 | 0.14 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.5 | 4.36 | -0.14 | 4.22 | -0.28 | 4.46 | -0.04 | 3.51 | 4.38 | 0.87 | 4.32 | 0.81 | 5.17 | 1.66 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 6.64 | 5.65 | -0.99 | 5.59 | -1.05 | 6.54 | -0.1 | 5.54 | 5.41 | -0.13 | 5.18 | -0.36 | 5.49 | -0.05 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.8 | 2.79 | -0.01 | 2.71 | -0.09 | 2.3 | -0.5 | 3.66 | 2.54 | -1.12 | 2.56 | -1.1 | 2.41 | -1.25 |
Chris Sale can not sustain a .197 BABIP, although there should be some potential for him to greatly improve on his .323 from last year with a great profile and improved defense. Overall, the new approach is working for him now and he’s stranding 86.7% of his batters as a result, but sub-.200 BABIPs are just not long term things. I still fail to see the error in his 32.1K% last year, but until he doesn’t either, we’ll have to live with this version of Sale.
David Price still has a tremendous gap in his ERA and estimators and has had a BABIP above .350 in all but two starts this season. His hard contact rate was below 22% in each of his last two starts though, the first time below 33% since his first start. Thinks are starting to look better, but there’s still a lot of regression in his BABIP and 59.7 LOB%.
Jeff Samardzija has a 7.1 HR/FB and has never been below double digits, but has never had much experience with such favorable parks. Much remains to be seen.
Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t been good at all over his last three starts, but his 63.6 LOB% and 17.2 HR/FB both seem candidates for significant regression. Four of his five HRs came in one early afternoon mid-week start. A declining K% and SwStr% give caution to buying completely into his season estimators either.
Matt Harvey has the lowest aEV (87.7 mph) on the board today and also the highest BABIP due to a 29.2 LD%, which should regress. He’s stranded just 62.2% of his runners. He had a season low 4.9 SwStr% in his last start, but was above 10% in four of his previous five.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.294 | 0.308 | 0.014 | 0.204 | 5.4% | 92.3% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.275 | 0.197 | -0.078 | 0.177 | 15.9% | 85.3% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.299 | 0.287 | -0.012 | 0.198 | 11.3% | 80.9% |
| Daniel Wright | CIN | 0.289 | |||||
| David Price | BOS | 0.293 | 0.352 | 0.059 | 0.269 | 4.2% | 74.3% |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 0.315 | 0.275 | -0.04 | 0.247 | 4.4% | 93.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.292 | 0.302 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 5.2% | 88.3% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.322 | 0.300 | -0.022 | 0.243 | 11.4% | 86.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.295 | 0.293 | -0.002 | 0.16 | 2.6% | 87.9% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.249 | 0.280 | 0.031 | 0.202 | 7.3% | 90.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.305 | 0.274 | -0.031 | 0.208 | 12.5% | 86.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.281 | 0.299 | 0.018 | 0.223 | 7.8% | 81.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 0.286 | 0.302 | 0.016 | 0.239 | 13.8% | 88.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.239 | -0.066 | 0.185 | 15.1% | 91.5% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.315 | 0.411 | 0.096 | 0.206 | 4.8% | 85.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.278 | 0.242 | -0.036 | 0.194 | 10.9% | 92.3% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.301 | 0.253 | -0.048 | 0.157 | 7.8% | 87.3% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.310 | 0.288 | -0.022 | 0.17 | 13.9% | 82.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.303 | 0.300 | -0.003 | 0.181 | 5.0% | 88.5% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.286 | 0.256 | -0.03 | 0.163 | 0.0% | 89.5% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.312 | 0.385 | 0.073 | 0.292 | 10.4% | 85.3% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.287 | 0.338 | 0.051 | 0.245 | 0.0% | 86.6% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.268 | 0.375 | 0.107 | 0.25 | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.269 | 0.300 | 0.031 | 0.268 | 7.0% | 86.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.303 | 0.301 | -0.002 | 0.161 | 7.1% | 88.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.279 | 0.293 | 0.014 | 0.211 | 8.6% | 80.5% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 0.227 | 8.0% | 86.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.284 | 0.313 | 0.029 | 0.196 | 8.2% | 83.4% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
David Price costs $100 more than Stephen Strasburg on FanDuel, but $4.5K less on DraftKings. Chris Tillman has Price by $1.8K on DraftKings where he costs $10.7K. These large discrepancies account for a different top valued pitcher on each site tonight. DraftKings aggressive pricing in many spots again makes it very difficult tonight.
Value Tier One
David Price (2) – Does DraftKings ($8.9K) realize he is pitching in Boston and not Colorado tonight? With their recent trend of aggressive pricing on above average pitchers or just those in good spots, I don’t understand his cost at all. At $1.8K higher on FanDuel, Strasburg potentially moves ahead.
Stephen Strasburg (1) might see a ball or two leave the yard tonight, but projects for potentially the top strikeout total tonight. He’s probably the top choice on FanDuel where he and Price are priced similarly, but falls behind for a much higher cost on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
Matt Harvey is a very high risk play, but is in a good spot at a $7.5K cost that can’t be completely ignored. He’ll likely be very low owned and who can blame players for abandoning him by now? While it’s less likely that he hits his upside with every poor start, it is in the mechanics and still within him. The estimators are much better than the ERA and expect something better than his cost. Understand this is completely hit or miss. There will likely be no in between here.
Mike Bolsinger is a nearly punt cost arm with league average upside that increases even more against the Reds offense. This is the first place I’m looking for a low cost arm to pair with a high priced pitcher and might even consider some low exposure on one pitcher sites if there are a lot of high priced bats that appear worth the cost.
Value Tier Three
Jeff Samardzija (3t) is not a pitcher I’m often (or ever) inclined to pay more than $10K for, but he’s been that good over his last four starts, is in a great park, and may have tonight’s top matchup.
Jhoulys Chacin is cheap and facing a struggling offense that may be without a top of the order LH bat. His results have been poor in May, but the underlying numbers aren’t much worse than average due to a low strand rate. This is probably not a choice for single pitcher sites, but for where you need a complimentary option to a high cost pitcher in GPPs, who might be able to hold down the fort for five or six innings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chris Sale (3t) now costs nearly Kershaw dollars, but isn’t performing nearly as well as Kershaw. You’re partially paying for BABIP and need the elite strikeout rate for his cost on DraftKings tonight unless he finishes yet another game.
Justin Verlander costs $11K on DraftKings, which is difficult to justify unless you wipe out the last three years and just consider his last three starts. He’s $2.5K less on FanDuel in a strong spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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