Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 30th
No fewer than three pitchers are making their first major league start tonight, while one hasn’t started in over two years. That means either there’s been a rash of injuries or the Super Two deadline has passed. I’d guess the former, considering none are major prospects. Another is making his second major league start. On the positive end, it’s Chris Sale day and at least there are no afternoon games to rush for.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.3 | 4.45 | 5.41 | 35.0% | 1.39 | 5.69 | 3.92 | COL | 78 | 92 | 89 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 20.7 | 5.34 | 23.1% | 1.03 | 22.28 | 5.04 | TOR | 98 | 96 | 150 | |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 5.4 | 4.37 | 5.85 | 43.6% | 0.91 | 4.85 | 4.78 | ANA | 110 | 92 | 89 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.4 | 2.86 | 7.02 | 41.4% | 0.98 | 3.52 | 2.79 | CHW | 105 | 129 | 123 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -3.4 | 4.58 | 5.66 | 43.0% | 1.02 | 4.4 | 4.59 | NYY | 104 | 118 | 75 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 2.61 | 5. | 20.0% | 0.91 | 2.61 | CHC | 85 | 87 | 77 | |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 3.4 | 4.81 | 5.06 | 48.0% | 0.91 | 4.61 | 6.87 | SDG | 74 | 81 | 74 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -6 | 4.07 | 5.64 | 48.7% | 0.93 | 4.36 | 4.43 | SFO | 74 | 70 | 58 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -5.8 | 4.06 | 5.89 | 51.5% | 0.97 | 3.7 | 4.25 | ARI | 74 | 107 | 79 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -2.4 | 3.97 | 5.76 | 42.6% | 1.03 | 3.56 | CIN | 99 | 102 | 98 | |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.1 | 3.99 | 6.52 | 42.7% | 0.93 | 3.63 | 2.79 | WAS | 101 | 110 | 104 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 11 | 4.85 | 4.71 | 37.6% | 1.04 | 4.65 | 2.57 | HOU | 121 | 123 | 151 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -2.7 | 3.89 | 6.49 | 42.7% | 0.98 | 3.72 | 2.76 | BOS | 108 | 96 | 102 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 4.8 | 5.31 | 5.71 | 45.8% | 0.94 | 5.49 | 4.49 | PHI | 77 | 89 | 64 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.3 | 3.77 | 6.59 | 33.3% | 1.06 | 4.2 | 5.35 | KAN | 81 | 81 | 91 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -1.3 | 3.71 | 5.5 | 42.1% | 0.98 | 3.62 | 4.84 | STL | 96 | 100 | 62 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0 | 3.73 | 5.32 | 48.5% | 1.02 | 3.66 | 3.33 | BAL | 87 | 93 | 44 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -0.1 | 3.98 | 5.53 | 44.0% | 1.11 | 4.14 | 4.09 | TEX | 104 | 98 | 91 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -10.2 | 4.07 | 5.7 | 45.5% | 0.98 | 3.75 | 3.91 | LOS | 94 | 112 | 89 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -3.5 | 4.25 | 5.68 | 40.8% | 1.04 | 4.7 | 5.58 | MIN | 102 | 111 | 94 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.7 | 5.17 | 5.35 | 44.7% | 1.11 | 4.9 | 4.44 | TAM | 103 | 114 | 108 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | -4.1 | 4.53 | 20.0% | 0.91 | 2.81 | ATL | 91 | 94 | 82 | ||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5 | 3.78 | 5.56 | 43.5% | 0.97 | 3.37 | 3.53 | PIT | 95 | 88 | 128 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -7.8 | 4.04 | 6. | 54.0% | 1.09 | 4.26 | 1.96 | CLE | 109 | 105 | 131 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -8.8 | 4.17 | 5.9 | 0.452 | 1.09 | 4 | 2.78 | OAK | 85 | 106 | 108 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 2.6 | 3.84 | 5.83 | 0.488 | 1.39 | 3.48 | 3.09 | SEA | 91 | 69 | 82 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | -4.1 | 10.04 | 0 | 0.91 | 10.04 | MIL | 97 | 96 | 65 | ||
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 11.1 | 3.73 | 5.43 | 0.357 | 0.94 | 4.1 | 3.3 | MIA | 90 | 90 | 126 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -5.8 | 4.27 | 5.66 | 0.467 | 0.91 | 4.38 | 5.01 | NYM | 84 | 100 | 125 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.06 | DET | 87 | 111 | 96 |
Chris Sale failed to strike out at least 10 for the first time since his initial start. Time to start a new streak? His six strikeouts were a season low. He went at least seven innings for the ninth time in 10 starts. Here’s the real surprise. His old team is the top offense in baseball against LHP (17.2 K%), by far. They have a 20.4 HR/FB over the last week, but are a bottom five offense (83 sOPS+) against power pitchers.
Dinelson Lamet gets his first career home start for the Padres. He showed his strikeout ability, whiffing eight of 20 Mets in his major league debut, but walked just two. Yes, I say “just two” because he had a 12% walk rate at AAA this season and has been above 9.5% for the most part at just above every minor league stop, yet still has managed to maintain a K-BB above 17%. As mentioned in his initial write-up, “Fangraphs gave him a 40 grade as the 25th best prospect”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/ in the system, calling him an eventual reliever due to the lack of a quality pitch to get LHBs out. That’s likely still the assessment after just one start as he threw just fastballs and sliders over 80% of the time to a predominantly LH Mets lineup, but he might be in a top three spot on the board tonight when the Cubs visit. I can’t explain why they’ve been so bad. The peripherals aren’t horrible, but we’ll be in June in couple of days and need to start accepting these things.
Jeff Samardzija has struck out at least eight in five straight starts, but nobody’s talking about him. He’s pitched at least two outs into the seventh in six straight, allowing more than three runs just once. He’s had two rough starts in Colorado and Arizona and then another rough inning in New York, but has otherwise shown some of the best stuff of his career. In fact, his 24.6 K-BB% is now fourth among qualified pitchers. He’s walked just one batter in May. His issue has been a 27.4 LD%, but he has just a 6.0 Hard-Soft% with a reasonable 86.4 mph aEV. Washington is a good offense that doesn’t strike out a lot, but the park could neutralize them.
Luis Severino dropped seven Royals in eight shutout innings in his last start. His 21.3 K-BB% remains a top 10 mark in the majors. His 51.4 GB% gives him the best chance of keeping the ball in the yard as often as possible in these tough AL East parks, though he has allowed seven HRs. While LHBs have a lower wOBA (.260 to .280) against him this year, his repertoire is more suited to RHBs, which he’ll face the large majority of in the Baltimore lineup. He has a 30.8 K% against RHBs this year and the Orioles are in a state of disarray offensively. They have a 24.4 K-BB%, higher than their 22.6 Hard% over the last week.
Michael Wacha lasted just four innings against the Dodgers in LA last time out and may have the worst defense in the majors behind him, but he now has the best K-BB (15.9%) since his short rookie season. It was the first time he hadn’t gone six innings this season and he’s struck out at least five in all but one start (his longest of the season). He’s managed contact extremely well with a hard contact rate below 25% and 83.7 mph aEV that’s second on the board. The Dodgers are a quality offense against RHP, as he well knows now, but they will strike out a bit and have been less potent on the road, while his performance improves a bit at home.
Robbie Ray has thrown seven shutout innings in each of his last two starts in San Diego and then Milwuakee. He’s on the road for a third straight start, which is a great thing, especially with that destination being Pittsburgh. While the Pirates strike out less than those other two teams (21.6% vs LHP) and take a lot of walks (11.3% vs LHP), which is a concern against his nearly matching 11.7 BB%, it’s a tremendously power suppressing park for RHBs (10.1 HR/FB at home), while his hard hit (44.8% this year with an 88.9 mph aEV) drops to a more manageable 36.1% on the road since last season. While still not ideal, that plays with a 30% strikeout rate.
Tyler Anderson is having a fantastic May with a 25.0 K-BB%, 58.9 GB% and -11.6 Hard-Soft% that trumps even what he did last year. That type of profile will play in any park and it’s great to see him back. He’s struck out at least seven in all four starts this month, while his velocity has slowly bumped up a tick as he’s been throwing fewer fastballs and more changeups. An extra bonus, Seattle has been one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP despite just a 9.2 K-BB%, but due to a 5.4 HR/FB and 6.7 Hard-Soft%.
Vince Velasquez is still struggling to get through six innings, but his 20.2 K-BB% over his last four starts is a welcome improvement from the 9.6% he was running through his first five. His 43.3 Hard% over this most recent span is more of a concern and has led to four HRs, but the peripherals might be something we can use. The major change has been favoring curveballs over changeups. The Marlins don’t really strike out as much as you’d think they do (19.9% vs RHP), but they are a below average offense in a pitcher’s park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Ivan Nova (.286 – 76.1% – 8.5) has a 12.8 career HR/FB, mostly as a product of Yankee Stadium, but this is probably too much of a drop under current circumstances. He’s gone at least six innings in every start, but isn’t missing enough bats to be useful enough for us here. Although, he costs $2K less on DraftKings, where we could consider him in an SP2 role against a predominantly RH Arizona lineup that has been good against RHP (16.6 HR/FB), but still strike out a lot and have been poor on the road (25.6 K%), while entering a park that destroys RH power tonight.
Gio Gonzalez (.264 – 88.9% – 16.1 HR/FB) has the top matchup on the board in San Francisco, but is allowing the hardest contact of his career (32.9%) with a 12.3 BB%. His 10 HRs allowed are already more than halfway to a career high. Three of his last five starts have gone fewer than six innings, while his low ERA is almost entirely a product of a fluke strand rate.
Matt Andriese (.272 – 82.3% – 16.4) does a nice job of missing bats at a slightly above average rate. He may be a bit under-rated while the Texas offense is a bit over-valued (20.9 K-BB% over the last week), but the park makes this a more difficult spot (Rangers 34.5 Hard%, 15.5 HR/FB at home), while HRs have been an issue for him.
Eddie Butler (.220 – 84.2% – 0.0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jose Quintana allowed eight runs in his last start and is now carrying an ERA not much below five. While I’ve been a doubter over the last year due to a SwStr% that has not supported his K%, the interesting thing is that he’s carried a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts and is not more in line with his career rate (8.5%). The strikeout rate is still a career high and I wouldn’t expect him to remain much above average. The Red Sox have just a 3.0 K-BB% and 14.0 K% against LHP even if the overall performance against southpaws has been below average.
Kenta Maeda struggled through a three run first before shutting down the Cardinals for the next four innings to make at least something out of his return from the DL. He faces the same offense again on their home turf, which is actually a more positive run environment. He has the fifth best SwStr% in baseball among those with at least 40 IP, which is not entirely reflected in his K%. While he was allowed to pitch at least seven innings in two of his three starts previous to the hamstring injury, the Dodgers more cautiously yanked him with fewer than 80 pitches last time out and he hasn’t gone more than five innings in six of his eight starts now.
Justin Verlander is in a nice spot in Kansas City, but is now an even more extreme fly ball pitcher (29.2 GB%) with more hard contact (34.8%, 88.2 mph aEV) and below average peripherals (10.9 K-BB%). Most people will probably consider him for name value at a high cost, which makes him an excellent fade candidate.
Jose Berrios allowed three HRs in Baltimore last time out (all solo shots), but still struck out seven with just two walks and has now struck out 18 of his last 52 batters, finally starting to show some of that tremendous potential. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all three starts this year. The main reason for his omission tonight is that he’s in the toughest spot on the board and I didn’t forget there’s a game at Coors tonight. Houston is the best offense in baseball and has just a 13.1 K% with a 17.7 HR/FB over the last week.
Chris Tillman has the second lowest rate of Barrels (2.1% per PA) on the board, but also a career low 15.8 K% with a 9.5 BB%. You don’t want to start putting Yankees on base and allow that much contact in a small park.
Eric Skoglund sounds like the villain for the next Avengers movie, but is actually the closest thing we get to prospect among the young pitchers making their first starts tonight. He’s the only one making his major league debut and was the eight ranked prospect in the organization via Fangraphs with a 45 grade, projecting him as a potential “back of the rotation innings eater”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-kansas-city-royals/ if all goes right. A college arm, he’s ascended through the minors at about a level per year with a K-BB between 15% and 16.3% at virtually every stop. This would seem like a useful pitcher (he’s just above the minimum on DK, not available on FanDuel) in some spots, but the Detroit RHBs are hammering LHP this season (42.3 Hard%, 16.3 HR/FB).
Asher Wojciechowski started three games for the Astros back in early 2015, posting an ERA above seven. He’d been a low strikeout, occasionally high walk pitcher for many years in the minors. This year, in five starts, the 28 year-old has turned in a 23.0 K-BB% at AAA with just a 25.4 GB%. In four relief innings in the majors this year, he has a 12.5 K-BB% with a 25 GB%. The strikeouts are interesting and he looks to have the top defense in the majors behind him, but I’m not sure how those five starts translate to the majors, especially against a Toronto offense who’s early season numbers are somewhat skewed themselves without Josh Donaldson. The offense has been quite a bit better now that everyone appears healthy.
J.A. Happ faced just 16 batters in his lone rehab start. He hasn’t pitched in over a month due to an elbow issue.
Tyler Pill was probably never supposed to see the major leagues. The 27 year-old is minor league depth with a K-BB below 5% at AAA this season. If you told the Mets he was going to be starting a game for him this year, they’d know they were in serious trouble. He wasn’t even on the 40 man roster until a few days ago. The Mets simply ran out of pitchers and with Matz nearing a return, it would be a surprise if this weren’t his only start.
Parker Bridwell is not available on either site.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.1% | Road | 17.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.6% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.9% | Road | 0.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.5% | 4.1% | Road | 12.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 7.0% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.1% | 4.8% | Road | 26.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 1.8% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.0% | 8.5% | Home | 20.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 40.0% | 10.0% | Home | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% | ||
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 14.9% | 8.9% | Road | 17.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 18.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.1% | Road | 19.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 14.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.5% | 4.8% | Home | 17.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 6.2% | 1.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.8% | Home | 23.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.6% | 5.9% | Home | 22.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 1.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.7% | 10.8% | Home | 22.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 5.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.0% | Home | 23.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 2.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 9.8% | 6.6% | Home | 9.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 6.9% | Road | 25.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.8% | Road | 24.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.7% | Road | 23.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.8% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.1% | Road | 19.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 11.6% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.3% | Road | 17.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.5% | 8.5% | Home | 11.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.7% | Home | 28.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.6% | Road | 30.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 5.9% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.5% | Road | 17.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 6.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.4% | Home | 21.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 6.5% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.4% | Home | 22.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.7% |
| Tyler Pill | Mets | L2 Years | 0.0% | 20.0% | Home | L14 Days | 0.0% | 20.0% | ||
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.7% | Road | 21.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.0% | Road | 17.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 6.7% | LH | 24.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.3% | 8.5% | RH | 19.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 13.4% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.4% | RH | 20.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 8.5% | LH | 17.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.7% | 9.1% | RH | 22.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 10.5% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.5% | 9.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 25.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 7.3% |
| Giants | Home | 18.9% | 6.7% | LH | 20.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.6% | 8.4% | RH | 23.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 5.6% |
| Reds | Road | 18.4% | 7.3% | LH | 18.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 9.0% | RH | 19.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Road | 18.9% | 8.9% | RH | 18.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 13.1% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.0% | 9.6% | LH | 14.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 12.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.6% | 7.4% | LH | 22.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Home | 19.2% | 7.8% | RH | 21.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.9% | RH | 20.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 8.3% | RH | 22.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 29.8% | 5.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | RH | 22.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 10.1% | RH | 22.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 9.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 11.9% | RH | 22.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Road | 28.6% | 10.2% | RH | 26.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.0% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.9% | RH | 20.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 9.7% | LH | 21.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.9% |
| Indians | Home | 19.7% | 10.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.1% | 9.0% | RH | 23.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.2% | 8.3% | LH | 19.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.7% | 7.9% | RH | 24.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 8.2% | RH | 19.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 9.6% | RH | 19.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 25.3% | 10.3% | LH | 22.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.2% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 14.5% | 10.3% | Road | 31.3% | 14.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 13.3% | -3.5% |
| Asher Wojciechowski | Reds | L2 Years | 30.8% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% | Road | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 2017 | 34.6% | 13.2% | 12.8% | Road | 36.8% | 11.9% | 22.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2017 | 31.0% | 7.7% | 14.5% | Road | 30.1% | 4.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.3% | Home | 33.2% | 10.3% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 2017 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | Home | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | |||
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 35.2% | 18.3% | 19.1% | 2017 | 36.6% | 0.0% | 9.8% | Road | 36.4% | 13.6% | 20.1% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 2017 | 33.0% | 16.1% | 11.0% | Road | 32.9% | 13.6% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 25.0% | 44.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 2017 | 32.2% | 8.5% | 18.2% | Home | 31.4% | 13.4% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 0.0% | 21.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 2017 | 36.7% | 23.5% | 22.4% | Home | 33.1% | 11.4% | 15.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 2017 | 29.1% | 16.4% | 6.0% | Home | 32.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 31.8% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 2017 | 26.0% | 11.5% | 4.0% | Home | 33.3% | 13.9% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 23.1% | 3.5% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 2017 | 27.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | Home | 35.2% | 14.5% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 22.2% | 18.2% | Home | 31.2% | 5.1% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 66.7% | 26.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 10.0% | 19.1% | Road | 29.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 16.7% | -7.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2017 | 27.7% | 15.1% | 10.0% | Road | 30.6% | 15.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.8% | 16.8% | 7.0% | 2017 | 31.0% | 16.7% | 13.8% | Road | 30.4% | 8.9% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 0.0% | 27.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 35.3% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 2017 | 40.9% | 16.4% | 25.7% | Road | 34.8% | 13.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 14.3% | 28.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2017 | 24.8% | 12.5% | 7.0% | Home | 30.6% | 11.5% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 20.0% | 14.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.2% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 2017 | 32.9% | 31.0% | 14.8% | Road | 34.8% | 21.6% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 11.8% | 5.2% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.5% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 2017 | 25.2% | 15.4% | 2.9% | Home | 31.6% | 20.0% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 54.6% | 33.3% | 45.5% | 2017 | Home | 40.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.3% | 12.1% | 21.5% | 2017 | 44.8% | 12.1% | 28.0% | Road | 36.1% | 12.4% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -6.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.3% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 2017 | 28.6% | 18.2% | 13.1% | Road | 35.4% | 21.1% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 20.0% | 3.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.6% | 14.2% | 14.3% | 2017 | 36.7% | 22.4% | 23.0% | Home | 33.3% | 18.1% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 30.0% | 25.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.4% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 25.0% | 4.4% | Home | 28.2% | 13.1% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 28.6% | -9.1% |
| Tyler Pill | Mets | L2 Years | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | 2017 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | Home | L14 Days | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | |||
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.4% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2017 | 37.4% | 21.3% | 23.7% | Road | 33.5% | 14.9% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 22.2% | 34.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 17.2% | 9.7% | Road | 31.3% | 12.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 30.0% | -5.1% |
| Eric Skoglund | Royals | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 30.6% | 16.4% | 10.9% | LH | 32.1% | 18.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 16.9% | 3.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | RH | 31.0% | 14.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 34.8% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 13.7% | 9.1% | RH | 30.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 37.9% | 13.7% | 20.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.3% | 11.6% | 6.1% | LH | 30.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.0% | 12.1% | 11.7% | RH | 31.0% | 16.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | RH | 29.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 17.5% | 5.2% |
| Padres | Home | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | RH | 28.4% | 13.9% | 5.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Giants | Home | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | LH | 26.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | L7Days | 31.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.0% | 13.6% | 8.7% | RH | 37.0% | 16.6% | 20.8% | L7Days | 30.1% | 12.7% | 5.2% |
| Reds | Road | 28.8% | 13.3% | 7.9% | LH | 29.2% | 16.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.4% | 19.3% | 10.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.8% | 14.0% | 12.3% | RH | 31.6% | 14.3% | 14.4% | L7Days | 31.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% |
| Astros | Road | 31.3% | 12.3% | 13.2% | RH | 31.2% | 14.8% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 17.7% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 34.0% | 10.9% | 15.7% | LH | 33.1% | 6.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 7.0% | 16.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.1% | 10.9% | 6.1% | LH | 30.8% | 16.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 13.0% | 5.5% |
| Royals | Home | 30.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | RH | 31.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 31.7% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 30.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | RH | 31.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 9.0% | 13.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.0% | 12.5% | 7.0% | RH | 30.0% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.5% | 15.5% | 15.9% | RH | 33.2% | 14.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.8% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.3% | 10.4% | 17.4% | RH | 35.2% | 14.4% | 20.6% | L7Days | 35.7% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.5% | 10.9% | 17.6% | RH | 34.1% | 13.6% | 19.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
| Rays | Road | 36.6% | 18.1% | 18.4% | RH | 36.9% | 17.6% | 19.5% | L7Days | 39.0% | 15.5% | 24.6% |
| Braves | Road | 31.4% | 10.9% | 13.3% | RH | 31.3% | 10.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 33.0% | 2.0% | 17.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | LH | 28.9% | 14.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 30.8% | 13.7% | 6.3% |
| Indians | Home | 31.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | RH | 34.3% | 12.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.6% | 11.8% | 17.3% | RH | 35.6% | 16.2% | 19.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 17.9% | 14.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | LH | 28.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 35.0% | 6.5% | 16.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.0% | 17.5% | 9.8% | RH | 33.3% | 18.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.1% | 8.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.3% | 14.7% | 11.2% | RH | 31.1% | 13.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 15.1% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Home | 32.7% | 8.4% | 12.7% | RH | 35.4% | 11.9% | 17.5% | L7Days | 43.7% | 11.5% | 25.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.6% | 12.6% | 18.6% | LH | 42.3% | 16.3% | 26.2% | L7Days | 32.3% | 12.3% | 15.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.31 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 2.03 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.00 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.00 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 14.4% | 4.8% | 3.00 | 9.4% | 3.5% | 2.69 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.7% | 16.1% | 2.28 | 36.0% | 15.1% | 2.38 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.39 | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.39 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 40.0% | 12.1% | 3.31 | 40.0% | 12.1% | 3.31 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.83 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.83 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.29 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 2.44 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.2% | 7.1% | 1.86 | 12.5% | 7.9% | 1.58 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 29.0% | 10.0% | 2.90 | |||
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.6% | 11.6% | 2.47 | 31.2% | 12.2% | 2.56 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 27.9% | 10.8% | 2.58 | 27.9% | 10.8% | 2.58 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.1% | 8.2% | 2.82 | 22.9% | 8.1% | 2.83 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 16.7% | 7.3% | 2.29 | 16.7% | 7.3% | 2.29 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.41 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.05 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 23.7% | 14.5% | 1.63 | 23.0% | 14.9% | 1.54 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 27.6% | 11.1% | 2.49 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.22 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 21.1% | 10.0% | 2.11 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.34 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.53 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 18.4% | 9.1% | 2.02 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 2.38 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.4% | 6.4% | 2.09 | 10.6% | 5.6% | 1.89 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | ||||||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 29.8% | 12.8% | 2.33 | 29.4% | 12.8% | 2.30 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.08 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.08 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.3% | 8.5% | 3.21 | 26.3% | 8.1% | 3.25 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 23.6% | 12.9% | 1.83 | 27.2% | 14.0% | 1.94 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 0.0% | 5.3% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 5.3% | 0.00 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 24.3% | 10.6% | 2.29 | 25.2% | 11.5% | 2.19 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 16.5% | 7.1% | 2.32 | 14.4% | 6.5% | 2.22 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN |
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.22 | 4.16 | -0.06 | 4.44 | 0.22 | 4.67 | 0.45 | 4.40 | 0.18 | 4.61 | 4.35 | -0.26 | 4.68 | 0.07 | 4.26 | -0.35 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 2.25 | 5.04 | 2.79 | 6.12 | 3.87 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 5.59 | 3.34 | 2.25 | 5.04 | 2.79 | 6.12 | 3.87 | 2.27 | 0.02 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 6.96 | 4.78 | -2.18 | 4.78 | -2.18 | 4.79 | -2.17 | 8.23 | 1.27 | 8.63 | 5.34 | -3.29 | 5.45 | -3.18 | 5.27 | -3.36 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.34 | 2.29 | -0.05 | 2.43 | 0.09 | 1.8 | -0.54 | 1.43 | -0.91 | 3.57 | 2.46 | -1.11 | 2.75 | -0.82 | 2.48 | -1.09 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.43 | 4.85 | 0.42 | 4.53 | 0.1 | 3.02 | -1.41 | 3.73 | -0.70 | 4.43 | 4.85 | 0.42 | 4.53 | 0.1 | 3.02 | -1.41 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 1.8 | 2.61 | 0.81 | 2.73 | 0.93 | 3.62 | 1.82 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 1.8 | 2.61 | 0.81 | 2.73 | 0.93 | 3.62 | 1.82 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 1.93 | 6.05 | 4.12 | 5.1 | 3.17 | 3.88 | 1.95 | 6.21 | 4.28 | 1.93 | 6.05 | 4.12 | 5.1 | 3.17 | 3.88 | 1.95 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.9 | 4.79 | 1.89 | 4.58 | 1.68 | 4.97 | 2.07 | 4.42 | 1.52 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 4.99 | 0.59 | 6.44 | 2.04 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.83 | 4.09 | 1.26 | 3.7 | 0.87 | 3.19 | 0.36 | 4.95 | 2.12 | 3.35 | 4.12 | 0.77 | 3.7 | 0.35 | 3.25 | -0.1 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.5 | 2.53 | -1.97 | 2.34 | -2.16 | 3.77 | -0.73 | 5.46 | 0.96 | |||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.5 | 2.95 | -1.55 | 2.89 | -1.61 | 3.27 | -1.23 | 2.63 | -1.87 | 2.95 | 2.42 | -0.53 | 2.41 | -0.54 | 2.2 | -0.75 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 1.66 | 3.26 | 1.6 | 4.01 | 2.35 | 3.76 | 2.1 | 2.23 | 0.57 | 1.66 | 3.27 | 1.61 | 4.01 | 2.35 | 3.76 | 2.1 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4.82 | 4.18 | -0.64 | 4.36 | -0.46 | 3.81 | -1.01 | 3.92 | -0.90 | 4.45 | 4.02 | -0.43 | 4.19 | -0.26 | 2.99 | -1.46 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 5.4 | 5.15 | -0.25 | 5.06 | -0.34 | 6.12 | 0.72 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 5.4 | 5.15 | -0.25 | 5.06 | -0.34 | 6.12 | 0.72 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.87 | 4.72 | -0.15 | 5.16 | 0.29 | 4.56 | -0.31 | 3.18 | -1.69 | 5.12 | 5.13 | 0.01 | 5.76 | 0.64 | 5.42 | 0.3 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 5.08 | 3.76 | -1.32 | 3.89 | -1.19 | 4.19 | -0.89 | 4.91 | -0.17 | 2.95 | 3.84 | 0.89 | 3.82 | 0.87 | 2.85 | -0.1 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.11 | 3.14 | 0.03 | 2.92 | -0.19 | 3.27 | 0.16 | 2.53 | -0.58 | 3.21 | 3.85 | 0.64 | 3.6 | 0.39 | 3.59 | 0.38 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.24 | 4.19 | 0.95 | 4.08 | 0.84 | 4.48 | 1.24 | 4.02 | 0.78 | 2.89 | 4.19 | 1.3 | 4.17 | 1.28 | 3.96 | 1.07 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.66 | 3.79 | 0.13 | 3.56 | -0.1 | 3.49 | -0.17 | 3.49 | -0.17 | 4.91 | 3.72 | -1.19 | 3.21 | -1.7 | 3.38 | -1.53 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.21 | 4.56 | -0.65 | 4.67 | -0.54 | 7.56 | 2.35 | 8.60 | 3.39 | 5.27 | 4.55 | -0.72 | 4.82 | -0.45 | 7.26 | 1.99 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.69 | 4.81 | 0.12 | 4.83 | 0.14 | 5.2 | 0.51 | 5.58 | 0.89 | 5.6 | 5.33 | -0.27 | 5.37 | -0.23 | 5.91 | 0.31 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | ||||||||||||||||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.45 | 3.73 | 0.28 | 3.75 | 0.3 | 3.62 | 0.17 | 3.08 | -0.37 | 3.34 | 3.71 | 0.37 | 4.15 | 0.81 | 3.39 | 0.05 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 3.34 | 3.42 | 0.08 | 3.21 | -0.13 | 3.69 | 0.35 | 2.72 | -0.62 | 3.34 | 3.42 | 0.08 | 3.21 | -0.13 | 3.69 | 0.35 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.3 | 3.54 | -2.76 | 3.41 | -2.89 | 4.6 | -1.7 | 3.32 | -2.98 | 6.33 | 3.75 | -2.58 | 3.53 | -2.8 | 4.83 | -1.5 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 5.4 | 3.8 | -1.6 | 3.57 | -1.83 | 4.91 | -0.49 | 4.46 | -0.94 | 3.94 | 3.37 | -0.57 | 3.03 | -0.91 | 4.57 | 0.63 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 13.5 | 10.04 | -3.46 | 17.15 | 3.65 | 12.02 | -1.48 | 1.00 | -12.50 | 13.5 | 10.04 | -3.46 | 17.15 | 3.65 | 12.02 | -1.48 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.55 | 4.04 | -1.51 | 3.95 | -1.6 | 4.97 | -0.58 | 4.28 | -1.27 | 4.94 | 3.65 | -1.29 | 3.49 | -1.45 | 4.3 | -0.64 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 5.33 | 4.82 | -0.51 | 4.8 | -0.53 | 5.39 | 0.06 | 7.05 | 1.72 | 4.23 | 4.99 | 0.76 | 4.87 | 0.64 | 6.49 | 2.26 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN |
Jeff Samardzija has a career high .320 BABIP, but with a 27.4 LD%, he’s lucky it’s not higher. That said, he’s not allowing a lot of hard contact, which bodes well for that number and his 66.7 LOB%. As mentioned earlier, it’s really just a few poor starts in tough parks.
Tyler Anderson is still allowing HRs. It’s now 12 for the year and three in four May starts. He has a 25.0 HR/FB, but is back to generating lots of ground balls again.
Vince Velasquez also has a HR problem (21.3 HR/FB) and is allowing way too much hard contact.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.287 | 0.262 | -0.025 | 39.3% | 0.147 | 14.5% | 86.1% | 87 | 7.70% | 5.30% | 155 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | CIN | 0.276 | 0.250 | -0.026 | 25.0% | 0 | 11.1% | 88.9% | ||||
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.281 | 0.341 | 0.06 | 42.9% | 0.201 | 11.8% | 92.5% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 6.30% | 188 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.307 | 0.261 | -0.046 | 38.5% | 0.199 | 10.8% | 75.2% | 86.7 | 7.00% | 4.00% | 158 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.306 | 0.357 | 0.051 | 44.3% | 0.3 | 16.7% | 93.2% | 87.9 | 2.90% | 2.10% | 70 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.299 | 0.222 | -0.077 | 20.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 84.9% | ||||
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.295 | 0.220 | -0.075 | 45.0% | 0.3 | 30.0% | 86.6% | 84.9 | 2.40% | 1.70% | 41 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.298 | 0.264 | -0.034 | 45.2% | 0.175 | 6.5% | 85.8% | 85.8 | 6.90% | 4.60% | 173 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.309 | 0.286 | -0.023 | 50.2% | 0.238 | 6.8% | 93.3% | 88.7 | 5.50% | 4.60% | 236 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.01 | 42.9% | 0.224 | 0.0% | 86.9% | 90.6 | 12.20% | 8.70% | 49 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.302 | 0.320 | 0.018 | 38.5% | 0.274 | 9.8% | 82.2% | 86.4 | 7.10% | 4.70% | 182 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.270 | 0.106 | -0.164 | 36.0% | 0.12 | 15.4% | 84.2% | 88 | 8.00% | 5.10% | 50 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.264 | 0.293 | 0.029 | 38.0% | 0.193 | 15.1% | 90.7% | 86.3 | 5.70% | 3.80% | 174 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | 0.279 | 0.355 | 0.076 | 50.0% | 0.219 | 0.0% | 86.0% | 87.6 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 33 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.302 | 0.284 | -0.018 | 29.2% | 0.202 | 8.9% | 85.6% | 88.2 | 9.60% | 6.40% | 178 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 35.2% | 0.224 | 7.5% | 81.7% | 84.2 | 4.60% | 3.20% | 130 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.283 | 0.268 | -0.015 | 51.4% | 0.19 | 7.1% | 86.9% | 87.8 | 9.00% | 5.90% | 145 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.274 | 0.272 | -0.002 | 46.4% | 0.208 | 10.9% | 83.5% | 88.8 | 7.00% | 4.90% | 171 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.288 | 0.315 | 0.027 | 45.6% | 0.224 | 2.5% | 83.9% | 83.7 | 4.70% | 3.20% | 129 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.282 | 0.271 | -0.011 | 43.9% | 0.169 | 6.9% | 86.9% | 87.4 | 10.70% | 7.70% | 150 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.287 | 0.275 | -0.012 | 44.9% | 0.174 | 13.5% | 89.1% | 86.4 | 8.60% | 7.00% | 139 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.281 | ||||||||||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.288 | 0.265 | -0.023 | 37.4% | 0.209 | 15.5% | 82.3% | 88.9 | 7.70% | 4.40% | 143 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.283 | 0.250 | -0.033 | 58.5% | 0.146 | 4.5% | 87.9% | 87.1 | 4.80% | 3.30% | 84 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.298 | 0.328 | 0.03 | 42.6% | 0.213 | 12.2% | 86.1% | 90.5 | 12.20% | 7.90% | 139 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.282 | 0.309 | 0.027 | 44.2% | 0.247 | 10.4% | 81.7% | 83.1 | 8.70% | 5.90% | 161 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 0.317 | 0.333 | 0.016 | 0.0% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.290 | 0.310 | 0.02 | 42.8% | 0.232 | 10.6% | 84.7% | 89.6 | 7.90% | 5.10% | 139 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.312 | 0.335 | 0.023 | 43.9% | 0.222 | 12.1% | 89.8% | 86.6 | 8.00% | 5.90% | 174 |
| Eric Skoglund | KAN | 0.302 |
Chris Sale has been generating some pop-ups (7) and has the second best Z-Contact% in baseball. He’s been a more extreme fly ball pitcher this year, which actually tends not to benefit LHP BABIP that much in Boston, but it seems to work for him.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Severino (2) continues to enjoy a breakout season. While I suggest every time out that he’ll need to further develop his arsenal to continue to be successful against LHBs, he won’t have to worry about that here and faces the coldest set of bats in the majors. I think you’ll likely get an ownership advantage above the next two arms listed as well as this is perceived to be a tough spot, but don’t take my word for that.
Jeff Samardzija (3) has been turning elite peripherals and still costs less than $9K. He’s not in an easy spot against the Nationals, but a great park should help with that somewhat.
Chris Sale (1) costs more than $2.5K more than any other pitcher tonight on either site. He’s the top overall arm by a wide margin, but has one of the worst matchups. Yes, he is facing the White Sox.
Value Tier Two
Vince Velasquez (5) has a HR problem and contact issues have only gotten worse in recent starts. However, the peripherals (Ks & BBs) have improved to a borderline elite level over his last four starts. He’s in a nice spot at a reasonable cost tonight.
Robbie Ray (4) improves his outlook in Pittsburgh, perhaps the park most tailor built to his skill set, but walk rate is both the main strength of the Pittsburgh offense and a major weakness of his.
Value Tier Three
Tyler Anderson appears to be back and would be even higher, but he still has a bit of a HR problem and Coors is never going to be a favorable spot to pitch.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Wacha has done some quality work this season. He’s not in an easy spot against an offense that mashed him last time out, but he gets them at home for this one and costs less than $7K on DraftKings. I don’t know that I’d consider using him on FanDuel for more than $8K, but it’s close.
Dinelson Lamet looked great in his first start. He’s not supposed to be able to dominate balanced or predominantly LH lineups that easily, but he did. He’s got an ability to miss bats. That’s not in question. The Cubs aren’t supposed to be this bad, but they are.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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