Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, August 2nd
Tuesday night, you saw something amazing and even unprecedented in baseball. We had the greatest collection of arms ever available on a daily fantasy slate at one time and they all simultaneously went to crap in just one hour. Sale and Carrasco…bombed. Scherzer homered and then left the game in the second inning. Taillon…whipped. Martinez gave up three in the first, but then nothing after. Lester struck out nine, but lasted just four innings. Archer went six innings, but just five Ks and four runs. Stroman four runs. Manaea’s getting shelled after an inning.
Oh, wait, here’s a well-pitched game. Mets and Rockies are 1-0 in the sixth. Only the two highest implied run lines on the board.
The great news is that Wednesday’s 12 game slate looks almost as bad as Tuesday’s looked great. There are only a few usable arms on the entire board, so maybe nobody will score tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.8 | 4.88 | 5.37 | 47.9% | 1.11 | 4.6 | 5.32 | SEA | 96 | 103 | 102 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7.4 | 4.81 | 5.68 | 32.3% | 1.11 | 6.09 | 3.04 | TEX | 105 | 77 | 110 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | -0.5 | 3.91 | 4. | 44.4% | 0.94 | 4.18 | 3.44 | HOU | 124 | 132 | 109 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -1.6 | 4.17 | 5.5 | 44.9% | 1.02 | 4.31 | 3.81 | STL | 87 | 88 | 65 |
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 2.8 | 4.47 | 4.53 | 42.1% | 1 | 4.57 | 5.4 | ATL | 86 | 86 | 87 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | -1.6 | 8.23 | 3. | 33.3% | 1.39 | 9.19 | 8.23 | COL | 89 | 78 | 74 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -5.5 | 3.44 | 6.54 | 59.2% | 0.94 | 3.09 | 5.68 | TAM | 97 | 92 | 101 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -11.2 | 4.58 | 5.22 | 47.6% | 0.93 | 4.43 | 4.54 | SFO | 76 | 80 | 91 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -0.1 | 5 | 5.49 | 39.0% | 0.98 | 4.92 | 8.81 | TOR | 93 | 95 | 130 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -0.2 | 4.48 | 6.22 | 42.5% | 0.91 | 4.54 | 4.21 | SDG | 91 | 88 | 102 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -1.9 | 4.05 | 5.9 | 42.7% | 0.98 | 4.54 | 5.94 | CHW | 89 | 104 | 83 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.2 | 3.69 | 6.35 | 52.5% | 0.96 | 3.65 | 3.82 | ARI | 80 | 101 | 97 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 2.2 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 46.7% | 0.91 | 6.32 | 3.65 | ANA | 98 | 95 | 117 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.2 | 4.72 | 5.74 | 37.6% | 1.02 | 5.01 | 5.76 | BAL | 99 | 91 | 99 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 2 | 4.35 | 5.81 | 50.1% | 0.91 | 4.22 | 5.77 | PHI | 76 | 89 | 129 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | -5.1 | 4.56 | 5.65 | 38.6% | 1.02 | 4.27 | 4.01 | KAN | 86 | 89 | 105 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.7 | 4.57 | 5.74 | 39.6% | 1.01 | 4.98 | 6.49 | NYY | 117 | 114 | 108 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -1.8 | 4.32 | 6.1 | 39.6% | 1 | 4.42 | 4.14 | LOS | 102 | 109 | 97 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.4 | 4.07 | 5.66 | 61.3% | 0.91 | 4.15 | 4.55 | MIN | 87 | 96 | 70 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | -1.5 | 3.69 | 4.47 | 33.1% | 1.02 | 3.54 | 4.23 | MIL | 89 | 93 | 44 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.4 | 3.64 | 6.28 | 48.6% | 1.01 | 3.35 | 1.9 | DET | 92 | 96 | 113 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -3 | 4.53 | 5.82 | 38.6% | 0.93 | 4.47 | 3.94 | OAK | 85 | 84 | 111 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.4 | 3.82 | 6.67 | 42.6% | 1.13 | 3.99 | 4.25 | CLE | 101 | 106 | 132 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 7.3 | 5.18 | 4.62 | 37.2% | 0.97 | 6.73 | 6.79 | PIT | 90 | 88 | 57 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1 | 4.4 | 5.98 | 0.476 | 0.94 | 4.41 | 2.89 | MIA | 88 | 97 | 132 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.3 | 4.24 | 5.69 | 0.468 | 1.13 | 4.14 | 4.34 | BOS | 91 | 90 | 123 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -2.4 | 4.58 | 5.33 | 0.49 | 0.97 | 4.62 | 4.78 | CIN | 93 | 98 | 89 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | -3.9 | 4.79 | 5.74 | 0.568 | 1.39 | 4.38 | 9.19 | NYM | 107 | 100 | 80 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.9 | 4.67 | 4.68 | 0.467 | 0.94 | 4.58 | 4.3 | WAS | 102 | 108 | 111 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.4 | 3.92 | 5.7 | 0.538 | 0.96 | 3.26 | 3.05 | CHC | 102 | 92 | 114 |
Brent Suter threw seven shutout innings striking out five Cubs (an offense very proficient against LHP) his last time out. Through five starts in July, he had a 17.4 K-BB% (9.8 SwStr%) with a 7.0 Hard-Soft%. For the season, he has an 84.9 mph aEV and 26.5% 95+ mph EV, two of the top marks on the board. Even at home, he’s in a fairly solid spot against a St Louis offense that is struggling (27.6 K%, -1.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days) and has had issues on the road and vs LHP all season.
Dallas Keuchel threw 79 pitches in three innings, walking and striking out three Tigers each in his return from the DL. However, Detroit does mash LHP and he did have a 10.1 SwStr%. While a 50% ground ball rate is below his normal standards, a 66.7 Hard% was more concerning. We’re going to have to hope he returns to form pretty quickly (84 mph aEV, 66.3 GB% this year) in a high upside spot against the Rays (25.9 K% vs LHP) because there are few other places to venture tonight.
Jake Arrieta has struck out 11 of his last 46 batters, but with just a 5.1 SwStr% last time out. Bat missing wasn’t really working for him this year, so he turned to contact management to great detriment to his strikeout rate. It’s worked…kind of. He has a 50 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% since the beginning of June. His walk rate is up to 9.6% over that span though and he has allowed a HR in four straight starts. However, he has a 54.1 GB% and -7.2 Hard-Soft% against RHBs since the start of June, which is important when hosting Arizona (24.3 K% on the road).
Luke Weaver allowed four runs, but struck out five of the 21 Diamondbacks he faced in his first start of the season with a 50% GB rate and -7.1 Hard-Soft%. He arrived in the league with a 19.8 K-BB% through 36.1 innings last year, but seven HRs and a .386 BABIP shot his ERA above five and more than two runs above his non-FIP estimators. While he had an outrageous 36.6 LD%, his hard hit rate was just 32.4%. He’s generated a 21.7 K-BB% through 13 AAA starts this season without BABIP or HR issues. One area of concern is that he’s failed to go more than five innings in seven of his last nine AAA starts and again his first major league start. While the Brewers can certainly cause some issues at home if he still has those HRs in him (18 HR/FB at home and vs RHP), this is certainly a high upside spot (26.3 K% at home, 25.3% vs RHP) against the coldest offense in the league (27.5 K% last seven days).
Zack Godley is your safety net tonight. His 26.2 K% and 14.2 SwStr% top the board. He combines that with a 57.6 GB% and 84.6 mph aEV. The Cubs have been a different team since the break, but they will swing and miss a bit (22 K% vs RHP and over the last seven days).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jeremy Hellickson (.255 – 73.2% – 14.4) has allowed 20 HRs over his last 15 starts, failing to deliver one only twice in this span. He downgrades in park, division, and defense with the trade to Baltimore. At least he’s been missing more bats lately.
Ariel Miranda (.227 – 76.4% – 13.5) struck out a season high 10 last time out, but allowed two more HRs, his sixth multi-HR affair in his last eight starts. They were only his third and fourth to LHBs this year. He also has at least a 14 SwStr% in three of his last four starts now, so that would certainly be interesting against an offense with a 25.3 K% vs LHP if he weren’t in Texas and so HR prone.
Jason Vargas (.283 – 83.6 – 8.9) has just a 13.5 K% in July.
Andrew Cashner (.273 – 75.3% – _7.9) has a 1.9 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Austin Pruitt threw 81 innings in only his second start of the season last time out, striking out seven of 21 Yankees, but allowing three HRs. Even down a pair of top bats, he’s in a tough spot in Houston tonight. He does cost the minimum and has missed enough bats out of the bullpen, while costing the minimum if you need a very cheap SP2.
Brock Stewart is expected to throw only around 70 pitches after facing 18 batters on 55 pitches in his first start of the season.
JC Ramirez has a 14.4 BB% (1.9 K-BB%) over his last four starts. The Phillies had a team 107 wRC+ in July.
Rick Porcello takes his league average strikeout rate and 25 HRs (88.2 mph aEV, 8.6% Barrels/BBE) up against a Cleveland offense that spanked Chris Sale last night.
Trevor Bauer will pop off a great start every month or so and that’s what happened last time out (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), but he’s walked seven of his previous 32 batters and his SwStr% has not supported his K% all season. His Statcast rates are worse than Porcello’s. While the Red Sox have little power, they don’t strike out a lot and even less over the last week (15.8%).
A.J. Cole is now listed on MLB.com for the Nationals after no pitcher was listed until this morning, while both DraftKings and FanDuel had Tanner Roark listed last night. The real shame is that Roark may have been useful to us today. Cole has a 16.6 K% in 16 AAA starts this year.
Julio Teheran is missing a few more bats, but has now allowed 26 HRs on the season, six in his last two starts. This Dodger offense hit three of those two starts back in a tougher park. They have a 20.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Chris Flexen is at Coors, but I will say that it wasn’t the stuff that hurt him in his debut in San Diego, but an inability to execute. We may revisit him after this start, but even remarking that the strike zone is “smaller up here”, I wouldn’t expect a guy with a 3.9 BB% in AA two walk four of his first 17 major league batters.
Matt Moore
Jake Thompson made his first start of the season when the Phillies pulled Jeremy Hellickson late and it turned out pretty well (5 IP – 0 ER – 2 BB – 5 K), but lasted just 74 pitches. He has just a 2.1 K-BB% in 63.2 major league innings and a career K-BB lower than 10% in over 200 AAA innings.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 10.2% | Home | 17.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.0% | Road | 15.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 4.6% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 19.7% | 5.8% | Road | 19.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.5% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 5.9% | Home | 20.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.5% | Road | 19.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 11.8% | 23.5% | Road | 11.8% | 23.5% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 23.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.5% | Home | 22.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.6% | 5.2% | Road | 15.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.4% | Home | 17.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 2.3% | 18.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.7% | Road | 19.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 4.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.9% | Road | 19.0% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.3% | 8.0% | Home | 26.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 4.4% |
| Jake Thompson | Phillies | L2 Years | 14.2% | 12.1% | Road | 10.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.5% | Road | 17.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.7% | Home | 18.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.5% | 6.2% | Home | 19.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 8.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.3% | 6.1% | Road | 15.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.0% | Home | 20.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.5% | 7.6% | Home | 15.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.0% | 7.5% | Road | 25.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 9.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.2% | 4.5% | Home | 25.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.4% | Home | 21.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 4.0% | Home | 21.6% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 19.3% | 3.5% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 19.2% | 13.0% | Road | 15.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.4% | Road | 18.4% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 10.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.5% | Road | 22.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.5% | 6.9% | Home | 16.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.2% | 11.7% | Home | 16.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 16.3% | 9.0% | Home | 17.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.4% | Road | 23.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.4% | RH | 21.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.3% | LH | 25.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.4% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.9% | RH | 17.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.5% | 4.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 8.5% | LH | 21.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.9% |
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.5% | 7.6% | RH | 22.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 8.0% |
| Rays | Road | 25.7% | 8.6% | LH | 25.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.3% |
| Giants | Home | 19.0% | 6.9% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.2% | 9.3% | LH | 21.6% | 10.7% | L7Days | 17.1% | 10.4% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 8.4% | RH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | LH | 21.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 5.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.3% | 8.5% | RH | 23.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 11.9% |
| Angels | Home | 18.5% | 7.6% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 5.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.8% | 7.2% | LH | 24.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 7.7% | RH | 23.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | RH | 20.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 10.5% | RH | 22.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.3% | 10.8% | RH | 22.6% | 10.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.6% | 9.3% | RH | 22.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.3% | 8.6% | RH | 25.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 9.1% | RH | 21.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.3% | 9.2% | LH | 25.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 12.4% |
| Indians | Road | 18.2% | 9.4% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.4% | 10.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.1% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 13.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.1% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 7.7% | RH | 20.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Road | 20.8% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 8.6% | RH | 20.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.7% | 10.0% | RH | 22.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 2017 | 29.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | Home | 32.6% | 12.8% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 2017 | 28.8% | 13.5% | 8.2% | Road | 30.2% | 13.9% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 14.3% | 35.8% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 32.5% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 2017 | 32.5% | 14.3% | 16.6% | Road | 34.2% | 21.7% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 42.9% | 25.0% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 2017 | 27.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | Home | 31.3% | 0.0% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 2017 | 21.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% | Road | 27.9% | 23.3% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | -9.5% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 2017 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | Road | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 26.7% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 2017 | 23.3% | 19.4% | -5.3% | Home | 26.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 66.7% | 100.0% | 58.4% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | 2017 | 29.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | Road | 31.0% | 24.0% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 12.5% | 12.1% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.7% | 18.0% | 2017 | 37.7% | 18.2% | 19.0% | Home | 33.5% | 11.1% | 17.7% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 25.0% | 22.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 2017 | 29.6% | 14.0% | 9.2% | Road | 30.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 51.5% | 23.5% | 27.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 2017 | 30.5% | 17.0% | 10.8% | Road | 28.9% | 12.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 15.0% | 6.1% | Home | 23.7% | 9.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 13.3% | 3.1% |
| Jake Thompson | Phillies | L2 Years | 34.8% | 15.1% | 19.6% | 2017 | 38.7% | 8.3% | 19.3% | Road | 42.7% | 13.0% | 30.9% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | Road | 29.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 7.7% | 17.5% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.7% | 16.5% | 14.6% | 2017 | 36.6% | 16.8% | 20.2% | Home | 31.4% | 17.8% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | -2.8% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.3% | 14.4% | 13.2% | Home | 25.2% | 13.9% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.3% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2017 | 39.3% | 14.7% | 25.3% | Road | 29.6% | 12.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 44.2% | 6.7% | 32.6% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 2017 | 31.4% | 17.3% | 9.8% | Home | 32.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 42.9% | 13.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.6% | 19.8% | 16.4% | 2017 | 33.0% | 16.4% | 14.9% | Home | 34.0% | 16.0% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 0.0% | 14.6% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 19.5% | 12.9% | 2017 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 4.3% | Road | 38.7% | 19.2% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 20.0% | -7.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 31.7% | 22.9% | 13.1% | Home | 33.9% | 17.6% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 25.0% | 9.7% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 11.3% | 19.7% | Home | 31.8% | 10.6% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.7% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 2017 | 41.7% | 13.7% | 25.4% | Home | 34.9% | 8.9% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 26.3% | 25.6% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 39.4% | 20.7% | 24.8% | 2017 | 40.9% | 22.7% | 29.1% | Road | 39.2% | 27.5% | 29.9% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 27.3% | 37.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.4% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.2% | 14.0% | Road | 24.5% | 11.4% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.0% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 2017 | 35.9% | 15.2% | 21.9% | Road | 32.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2017 | 29.7% | 9.9% | 4.9% | Home | 32.7% | 5.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.8% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 21.7% | 5.8% | Home | 33.3% | 21.3% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -33.3% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.7% | 10.9% | 19.4% | 2017 | 46.0% | 9.4% | 33.4% | Home | 36.3% | 6.3% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 53.6% | 20.0% | 42.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.8% | 6.3% | Road | 23.1% | 13.0% | -3.4% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 0.0% | -17.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 31.9% | 11.5% | 14.0% | RH | 30.4% | 12.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 36.1% | 7.1% | 19.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.6% | 17.3% | 18.6% | LH | 30.8% | 13.3% | 10.4% | L7Days | 43.5% | 20.4% | 28.3% |
| Astros | Home | 31.4% | 15.5% | 14.0% | RH | 33.9% | 16.1% | 16.5% | L7Days | 35.2% | 11.8% | 17.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.7% | 13.2% | 13.9% | LH | 33.4% | 11.5% | 16.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 4.8% | -1.5% |
| Braves | Home | 28.9% | 12.2% | 9.2% | RH | 30.7% | 11.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 8.8% | 14.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 32.3% | 17.1% | 13.3% | RH | 30.0% | 13.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 9.4% | 4.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.8% | 17.1% | 13.2% | LH | 34.0% | 12.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 21.3% | 0.6% |
| Giants | Home | 25.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | RH | 27.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.6% | 14.5% | 12.7% | LH | 30.1% | 12.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 33.7% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| Padres | Home | 29.1% | 12.7% | 7.4% | RH | 29.1% | 13.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.6% | 13.3% | 7.0% | LH | 28.3% | 14.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 16.2% | 4.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.8% | 13.5% | 10.7% | RH | 35.4% | 15.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.5% | 17.3% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 13.4% | 10.1% | RH | 31.0% | 13.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 29.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.9% | 15.6% | 10.2% | LH | 34.7% | 13.2% | 15.7% | L7Days | 36.8% | 10.9% | 14.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | RH | 30.4% | 11.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 19.2% | 3.8% |
| Royals | Road | 32.5% | 14.1% | 13.0% | RH | 32.2% | 12.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 36.4% | 6.9% | 18.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.3% | 19.9% | 9.7% | RH | 31.6% | 16.8% | 12.7% | L7Days | 28.6% | 19.4% | 9.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.7% | 14.6% | 17.9% | RH | 35.6% | 14.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 36.6% | 10.2% | 17.2% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 11.6% | 11.9% | RH | 33.0% | 12.2% | 16.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 6.0% | 10.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.2% | 18.3% | 17.8% | RH | 33.2% | 18.8% | 14.1% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.9% | 12.2% | 17.6% | RH | 40.3% | 11.3% | 25.0% | L7Days | 33.8% | 14.0% | 16.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.3% | 12.5% | 15.1% | LH | 32.1% | 9.7% | 14.0% | L7Days | 33.7% | 9.7% | 14.3% |
| Indians | Road | 34.7% | 11.9% | 18.2% | RH | 33.9% | 12.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | RH | 29.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.0% | 9.8% | RH | 32.0% | 15.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.6% | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.3% | 9.0% | 16.7% | RH | 34.1% | 10.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 34.4% | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 13.7% | 11.3% | RH | 29.7% | 14.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 31.9% | 14.0% | 12.5% |
| Mets | Road | 36.8% | 15.2% | 19.6% | RH | 35.1% | 12.8% | 17.9% | L7Days | 39.3% | 11.3% | 27.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.7% | 15.6% | 13.3% | RH | 32.0% | 15.3% | 15.1% | L7Days | 37.6% | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.5% | 16.5% | 14.3% | RH | 30.9% | 14.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 20.6% | 13.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.05 | 14.4% | 5.7% | 2.53 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 19.8% | 10.3% | 1.92 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 1.92 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 19.7% | 10.9% | 1.81 | 33.3% | 16.1% | 2.07 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 |
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 19.1% | 11.7% | 1.63 | 12.5% | 10.1% | 1.24 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 11.8% | 11.6% | 1.02 | 11.8% | 11.6% | 1.02 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.28 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.65 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.00 | 16.7% | 6.9% | 2.42 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 17.2% | 7.5% | 2.29 | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.71 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.7% | 9.3% | 2.01 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.67 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.01 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.51 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.82 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 17.8% | 9.9% | 1.80 | 25.0% | 8.1% | 3.09 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 17.4% | 9.8% | 1.78 | 13.5% | 7.2% | 1.88 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.7% | 9.4% | 1.99 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 1.98 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 13.8% | 8.6% | 1.60 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.20 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 12.5% | 6.9% | 1.81 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.2% | 9.0% | 1.91 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 2.14 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.5% | 9.1% | 1.92 | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.64 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 21.2% | 7.8% | 2.72 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 2.72 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 25.1% | 14.8% | 1.70 | 32.3% | 16.2% | 1.99 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.6% | 8.8% | 2.11 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 2.21 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.7% | 9.2% | 2.25 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 2.68 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.75 | 14.6% | 10.4% | 1.40 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 20.2% | 10.0% | 2.02 | 27.4% | 13.4% | 2.04 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.3% | 8.4% | 3.01 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 3.10 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.06 | 13.9% | 5.4% | 2.57 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 19.2% | 10.1% | 1.90 | 13.2% | 12.5% | 1.06 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 18.8% | 5.2% | 3.62 | 15.8% | 5.2% | 3.04 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 26.2% | 14.2% | 1.85 | 32.0% | 14.8% | 2.16 |
While there are a full season outliers in each direction today, we’re not strongly considering any of them. Trevor Bauer would be the main concern if you are looking in his direction though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.48 | 5.62 | 2.14 | 5.26 | 1.78 | 4.51 | 1.03 | 5.40 | 1.92 | 2.36 | 5.29 | 2.93 | 4.89 | 2.53 | 4.61 | 2.25 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.31 | 4.83 | 0.52 | 5.19 | 0.88 | 5.15 | 0.84 | 4.86 | 0.55 | 6.55 | 4.09 | -2.46 | 4.65 | -1.9 | 5.2 | -1.35 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 6.63 | 3.91 | -2.72 | 4.06 | -2.57 | 4.13 | -2.5 | 5.07 | -1.56 | 9 | 3.44 | -5.56 | 4.04 | -4.96 | 9.35 | 0.35 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 2.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 3.97 | 1.57 | 2.89 | 0.49 | 5.85 | 3.45 | 1.5 | 3.84 | 2.34 | 3.53 | 2.03 | 2.42 | 0.92 |
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 0 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 5.24 | 5.24 | 0 | 5.28 | 5.28 | 5.44 | 5.44 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 9 | 8.23 | -0.77 | 9.19 | 0.19 | 11.15 | 2.15 | 4.85 | -4.15 | 9 | 8.23 | -0.77 | 9.19 | 0.19 | 11.15 | 2.15 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.94 | 3.25 | 1.31 | 2.98 | 1.04 | 3.32 | 1.38 | 2.26 | 0.32 | 9 | 5.68 | -3.32 | 4.75 | -4.25 | 8.49 | -0.51 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 5.74 | 4.58 | -1.16 | 4.34 | -1.4 | 5.49 | -0.25 | 7.42 | 1.68 | 5.88 | 4.64 | -1.24 | 4.45 | -1.43 | 5.54 | -0.34 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 5.42 | 5.2 | -0.22 | 5.4 | -0.02 | 6.16 | 0.74 | 7.24 | 1.82 | 9.64 | 7.08 | -2.56 | 7.59 | -2.05 | 10.01 | 0.37 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.37 | 4.81 | 1.44 | 4.89 | 1.52 | 4.94 | 1.57 | 3.85 | 0.48 | 4.68 | 5.03 | 0.35 | 5 | 0.32 | 5.91 | 1.23 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 4.15 | 4.32 | 0.17 | 4.25 | 0.1 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 4.52 | 0.37 | 5 | 5.57 | 0.57 | 5.67 | 0.67 | 6.67 | 1.67 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.03 | 4.14 | 0.11 | 4.07 | 0.04 | 4.23 | 0.2 | 4.23 | 0.20 | 2.25 | 4.52 | 2.27 | 4.47 | 2.22 | 4.37 | 2.12 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 4.5 | 5.33 | 0.83 | 5.49 | 0.99 | 4.65 | 0.15 | 7.79 | 3.29 | 0 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 4.91 | 1.91 | 4.09 | 1.09 | 4.04 | 1.04 | 7.23 | 5.6 | -1.63 | 5.92 | -1.31 | 7.33 | 0.1 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.29 | 4.49 | 0.2 | 4.34 | 0.05 | 4.71 | 0.42 | 4.31 | 0.02 | 3.34 | 5.33 | 1.99 | 4.94 | 1.6 | 4.43 | 1.09 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 4.73 | 5.29 | 0.56 | 5.38 | 0.65 | 5.5 | 0.77 | 5.47 | 0.74 | 6.19 | 3.79 | -2.4 | 3.5 | -2.69 | 4.96 | -1.23 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.69 | 5.13 | -0.56 | 5.3 | -0.39 | 5.48 | -0.21 | 5.77 | 0.08 | 6.2 | 5.28 | -0.92 | 5.31 | -0.89 | 4.14 | -2.06 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.09 | 5.05 | -0.04 | 5.16 | 0.07 | 5.74 | 0.65 | 5.35 | 0.26 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 0.07 | 4.44 | -0.01 | 5.62 | 1.17 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.76 | 4.12 | -0.64 | 4.02 | -0.74 | 4.24 | -0.52 | 5.47 | 0.71 | 4.95 | 4.54 | -0.41 | 4.53 | -0.42 | 3.75 | -1.2 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 4.15 | -0.35 | 8.12 | 3.62 | 4.5 | 4.38 | -0.12 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 4.15 | -0.35 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.09 | 3.54 | -1.55 | 3.54 | -1.55 | 4.68 | -0.41 | 3.79 | -1.30 | 3.82 | 2.5 | -1.32 | 2.63 | -1.19 | 3.42 | -0.4 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.74 | 4.87 | -0.87 | 5.12 | -0.62 | 4.69 | -1.05 | 7.39 | 1.65 | 5.56 | 4.4 | -1.16 | 4.49 | -1.07 | 4.43 | -1.13 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.55 | 4.13 | -0.42 | 4.33 | -0.22 | 4.34 | -0.21 | 4.81 | 0.26 | 3.06 | 4.21 | 1.15 | 4.5 | 1.44 | 5.33 | 2.27 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 7.86 | 5.24 | -2.62 | 5.64 | -2.22 | 7.14 | -0.72 | 7.07 | -0.79 | 7.45 | 6.79 | -0.66 | 6.52 | -0.93 | 8.53 | 1.08 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.93 | 4.49 | -0.44 | 4.34 | -0.59 | 4.15 | -0.78 | 4.50 | -0.43 | 3.52 | 3.66 | 0.14 | 3.72 | 0.2 | 3.07 | -0.45 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.25 | 4 | -1.25 | 3.73 | -1.52 | 3.9 | -1.35 | 4.42 | -0.83 | 5.3 | 4.42 | -0.88 | 3.81 | -1.49 | 2.67 | -2.63 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.53 | 4.62 | 0.09 | 4.49 | -0.04 | 4.01 | -0.52 | 4.14 | -0.39 | 3.86 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 4.34 | 0.48 | 3.94 | 0.08 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.78 | 5.06 | 0.28 | 4.45 | -0.33 | 5.12 | 0.34 | 4.12 | -0.66 | 9.82 | 7.88 | -1.94 | 7.17 | -2.65 | 7.24 | -2.58 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 6.42 | 4.3 | -2.12 | 4.37 | -2.05 | 3.84 | -2.58 | 5.67 | -0.75 | 6.75 | 4.3 | -2.45 | 4.26 | -2.49 | 4.78 | -1.97 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.06 | 3.52 | 0.46 | 3.17 | 0.11 | 3.03 | -0.03 | 2.81 | -0.25 | 4.07 | 2.94 | -1.13 | 2.46 | -1.61 | 2.58 | -1.49 |
Brent Suter has just a 4.8 HR/FB, allowing just a single one in July.
Dallas Keuchel has been a master contact manager or even dominator, but it’s difficult to accept a .235 BABIP. The 87.6 LOB% is definitely headed for regression.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.289 | 0.273 | -0.016 | 49.8% | 0.191 | 5.9% | 92.8% | 86.4 | 3.70% | 33.30% | 327 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.227 | -0.052 | 32.9% | 0.159 | 12.9% | 84.2% | 86.6 | 8.20% | 31.40% | 354 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.380 | 0.096 | 44.4% | 0.278 | 11.4% | 91.2% | 88.2 | 7.90% | 31.70% | 126 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0 | 45.8% | 0.221 | 4.8% | 86.6% | 84.9 | 3.80% | 26.50% | 132 |
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 0.280 | 0.217 | -0.063 | 42.2% | 0.2 | 5.9% | 82.5% | 81.7 | 0.00% | 21.70% | 46 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 | 0.444 | 0.124 | 33.3% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 85.7% | ||||
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.235 | -0.06 | 66.3% | 0.158 | 5.6% | 88.2% | 84 | 5.30% | 31.10% | 206 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.292 | 0.306 | 0.014 | 47.6% | 0.223 | 6.0% | 89.5% | 86.8 | 7.70% | 30.40% | 168 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.299 | 0.011 | 38.3% | 0.212 | 9.5% | 88.0% | 88.5 | 9.10% | 40.40% | 342 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.298 | 0.227 | -0.071 | 42.8% | 0.157 | 12.2% | 89.6% | 86 | 5.70% | 32.80% | 402 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.282 | -0.025 | 44.5% | 0.198 | 8.0% | 86.6% | 86.6 | 6.00% | 32.50% | 249 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.277 | -0.006 | 45.5% | 0.217 | 7.1% | 85.6% | 86.8 | 5.50% | 31.90% | 345 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 0.297 | 0.333 | 0.036 | 48.4% | 0.129 | 8.3% | 89.6% | 87.7 | 9.70% | 45.20% | 31 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.283 | -0.016 | 37.7% | 0.195 | 9.5% | 83.8% | 86.6 | 4.50% | 29.70% | 374 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.295 | 0.01 | 49.7% | 0.196 | 6.2% | 86.7% | 87.2 | 7.00% | 34.40% | 372 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 0.315 | 0.255 | -0.06 | 35.1% | 0.223 | 11.1% | 86.5% | 86.8 | 6.70% | 32.90% | 371 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.317 | 0.008 | 33.0% | 0.252 | 11.5% | 90.9% | 88.6 | 7.90% | 34.80% | 379 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.270 | -0.022 | 40.2% | 0.201 | 6.7% | 87.5% | 86.5 | 7.30% | 30.90% | 385 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.344 | 0.037 | 64.9% | 0.157 | 8.2% | 90.9% | 87 | 4.80% | 35.60% | 315 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 43.5% | 0.217 | 12.5% | 85.7% | ||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.290 | 0.309 | 0.019 | 49.6% | 0.174 | 11.0% | 84.8% | 88.1 | 9.70% | 36.40% | 360 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.331 | 0.014 | 38.2% | 0.199 | 7.5% | 88.0% | 89.1 | 9.20% | 41.30% | 390 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.305 | 0.332 | 0.027 | 38.7% | 0.209 | 9.3% | 87.8% | 88.2 | 8.60% | 35.30% | 453 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.293 | 0.350 | 0.057 | 40.2% | 0.187 | 6.8% | 85.2% | 89.4 | 12.70% | 40.00% | 110 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 46.9% | 0.208 | 6.1% | 84.6% | 86.5 | 5.50% | 33.20% | 364 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.345 | 0.042 | 46.6% | 0.223 | 8.7% | 88.1% | 89.2 | 9.00% | 39.90% | 301 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.295 | -0.013 | 49.5% | 0.197 | 15.4% | 90.2% | 85 | 5.30% | 29.00% | 303 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.302 | 0.275 | -0.027 | 56.1% | 0.206 | 4.3% | 87.7% | 84.9 | 5.20% | 29.40% | 306 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.380 | 0.087 | 46.4% | 0.245 | 9.4% | 92.4% | 90 | 2.70% | 43.20% | 111 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.256 | -0.038 | 57.5% | 0.187 | 7.8% | 88.0% | 84.6 | 4.00% | 32.90% | 225 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Zack Godley (1) or rather Thank Godley. He should be very highly owned tonight. Frankly, even in a difficult spot at Wrigley, there are no other certifiably healthy pitchers today with his track record this year.
Value Tier Two
Luke Weaver is interesting, but concerning. He’s shown remarkable upside in a near 20 K-BB% in his big league debut last season and has continued that work at AAA this season while not experiencing the same contact problems. He’s in what might be a decent spot today, in Milwaukee, at a low price, but I’m unsure why he’s been limited in most of his recent starts.
Dallas Keuchel (2) – I feel very little confidence in this selection today, but he was in a difficult spot last time out and did at least manage a 50% ground ball rate and 10.1 SwStr%. Here’s hoping he merely needed a tune up because this board stinks. If that happens to be the case, he’s the top pitcher on the board.
Value Tier Three
Brent Suter has been a quality rotation arm for the Brew Crew and finds himself in a slightly favorable spot, even at home tonight. While his FanDuel cost has risen slightly, he’s still well below $7K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jake Arrieta has seen his peripherals nose dive over the last two months, but his contact profile has greatly improved. He’s been especially contact dominant against RHBs, which should bode well for him at home against a predominantly RH, poor road offense. I can’t tell you why his price has spiked though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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