Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, June 14th
We’re skipping the early game today because it starts at noon and one of the pitchers is making his major league debut anyway. That gives us a few extra hours to list 14 games and cover the 11 game night slate. Unfortunately, that doesn’t leave us with a lot of usable arms with just two of tonight’s pitchers sporting a strikeout rate above 23% even though we see mostly negative run environments.
Another reminder that tomorrow’s article may run a little late and miss some afternoon games.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 13.6 | 5.15 | 4.82 | 41.7% | 0.91 | 5.12 | 7.34 | SDG | 86 | 71 | 133 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 1.3 | 4.76 | 5.38 | 47.5% | 0.94 | 5.34 | 4.92 | HOU | 109 | 119 | 89 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 1 | 4.28 | 5.12 | 41.8% | 1.09 | 3.91 | 4.07 | CLE | 102 | 102 | 83 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 5.1 | 4.58 | 5.55 | 36.6% | 0.96 | 5.31 | 5.47 | PHI | 101 | 85 | 59 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -7.4 | 4.71 | 4.81 | 42.8% | 0.97 | 5.66 | 5.52 | COL | 90 | 80 | 82 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -5.5 | 3.4 | 6.68 | 42.1% | 1.09 | 3.49 | 2.25 | LOS | 88 | 103 | 124 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.5 | 4.46 | 5.71 | 33.9% | 0.98 | 4.98 | 4.43 | CHW | 104 | 83 | 103 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 9.1 | 4.46 | 6.32 | 42.4% | 1.04 | 4.41 | 4.91 | SEA | 98 | 108 | 98 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 1.6 | 5.71 | 46.2% | 0.94 | 7.34 | 5.71 | TEX | 82 | 96 | 87 | |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2 | 4.19 | 5.46 | 50.5% | 1.03 | 4.05 | 4.06 | TAM | 103 | 87 | 145 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.7 | 4.2 | 5.33 | 47.0% | 0.97 | 4.11 | 3.02 | PIT | 96 | 94 | 121 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.8 | 4.17 | 5.63 | 35.8% | 1.03 | 4.69 | 4.24 | TOR | 94 | 93 | 87 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 8 | 4.23 | 5.28 | 39.5% | 0.93 | 4.93 | 3.7 | SFO | 73 | 78 | 98 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4 | 4.38 | 5.67 | 39.3% | 0.96 | 4.14 | 5.08 | BOS | 100 | 97 | 109 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -7.9 | 4.33 | 5.36 | 49.5% | 0.91 | 3.83 | 4.05 | CIN | 95 | 102 | 91 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -0.2 | 3.83 | 6.57 | 46.1% | 0.93 | 3.53 | 3.82 | KAN | 81 | 81 | 113 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.6 | 4.37 | 5.88 | 40.9% | 0.98 | 5.29 | 4.87 | ARI | 75 | 109 | 158 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 2.6 | 4.23 | 6.13 | 38.2% | 1.01 | 4.66 | 5.63 | WAS | 119 | 112 | 102 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -4 | 4.72 | 5.5 | 49.0% | 0.98 | 4.77 | 7.53 | STL | 98 | 96 | 114 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.1 | 4.14 | 5.83 | 45.2% | 0.91 | 4.65 | 5.31 | CHC | 86 | 87 | 106 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | -5.6 | 4.08 | 5.77 | 40.3% | 0.91 | 3.54 | 4.81 | NYY | 105 | 126 | 175 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 1.3 | 3.38 | 5.65 | 46.9% | 0.91 | 3.44 | 4.8 | ANA | 106 | 91 | 92 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.4 | 4.86 | 5.69 | 39.6% | 0.98 | 4.63 | 6.51 | BAL | 92 | 90 | 82 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -11.6 | 3.96 | 6.18 | 53.3% | 0.98 | 3.56 | 3.64 | MIL | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.3 | 4.1 | 5.28 | 0.562 | 0.91 | 4.12 | 3.47 | NYM | 88 | 87 | 101 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 6.7 | 4.47 | 5.4 | 0.529 | 1.04 | 5.26 | 2.92 | MIN | 106 | 108 | 115 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -4.9 | 3.88 | 5.71 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 4.64 | DET | 124 | 101 | 111 | |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -1.9 | 4.27 | 6.08 | 0.478 | 1.01 | 4.06 | 4.96 | ATL | 97 | 93 | 99 |
Brandon McCarthy has the second lowest exit velocity on the board (84.4) and the other guy has thrown the majority of his innings out of the pen. His 2.4% Barrels/BBE and 22% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, as is his -0.6 Hard-Soft%. The exceptional contact management is a surprise for a guy who has had HR issues in his recent history, although it’s important to remember that weak contact is not always necessarily predictive. He’s missing bats at a league average rate, giving him a strong 15.6 K-BB% as well. He faces a Cleveland offense that’s been merely average, but in the most positive run environment in play today.
Brian Johnson has had three interesting starts. He was hit hard, but struck out six Blue Jays initially, then shut out Seattle on nine strikeouts before being hammered by Detroit. I regretted listing him as a fourth tier arm against Detroit and paid for that. His peripherals (15.2 K-BB%) have been fine and though his 13.6% Barrels/BBE is atrocious, consider the offenses he has faced as a LHP. His overall 10.2 Hard-Soft% is right around league average. The matchup is an improvement tonight, to say the least, against a Philadelphia offense with a 17.9 K-BB% and 4.1 HR/FB over the last week, possibly the coldest offense in baseball.
Corey Kluber is one of two automatics tonight. The matchup is not ideal, though the Dodgers haven’t been as proficient against RHP as expected and they’ve struggled on the road, striking out 23% of the time in both spots. While his Statcast numbers aren’t bad, his 37.2 Hard% is one of the highest marks on the board, though he’s sitting on a 16 Hard%, striking out 18 of 46 since returning from injury. Perhaps the hard contact was due to injury in the first place. His 21.1 SwStr% in his most recent two starts is higher than most strikeout rates today. It’s one of the tougher matchups on the board in the most hitter friendly park, but also, the Dodgers have excelled against power pitching (118 sOPS+ is best in the majors).
German Marquez has fared well in all of his road starts except for a six run outing in San Diego. Go figure. He did strike out a season high nine in that start though. He is missing bats at a league average rate with a strikeout rate a bit above, which catches our attention today. Hard contact has been an issue even outside of Coors (26.7 Hard-Soft% career on the road) and he has the highest aEV on the board (89.7 mph), but he’s dealing with a park that punishes RH power against an offense with little overall power tonight. Their strength is in plate discipline (18.6 K%, 8.6 BB% vs RHP).
Michael Pineda bounced back from a terrible outing in Toronto (three walks, two HRs, one strikeout) by striking out eight Red Sox, an impressive feat. Despite the 21.0 HR/FB, his low to mid-threes estimators are met by his ERA this year. His 19.8 K-BB% is right in line with the last two seasons and his contact management rates have actually been better than average. Nine of his 13 HRs have actually come on the road in some power suppressing parks too, so we can’t really blame Yankee Stadium as much for his HR problem this year, but this still presents as a great damage limiting spot in a bigger park against a lineup without a single bat he needs to fear.
Mike Leake has five to six strikeouts in nine of 12 starts this year going fewer than six innings for the first time in his last start. That’s remarkable consistency and worth something on tonight’s slate, especially against an offense with a 24.6 K% in a power suppressing park, which may mean more than a nearly neutral run environment against this offense. His contact management skills aren’t as elite as his ERA would have you believe this year, but it’s been better than average all around despite what appears to be a terrible defense. He quietly has a top 10 ground ball rate too (54.8%).
Mike Montgomery comes out of the bullpen to fill in, but has been a multi-inning reliever all season and threw 73 pitches in his first start. We can figure him for something around 80 tonight against a below average offense against LHP, though with two RH threats (Cespedes and Flores), in a great park. While his strikeout rate is unimpressive, we probably shouldn’t expect it to drop much in a starting role because he has often been going a full time through the order and sometimes a bit more. Contact has been exceptional with a 57.9 GB%, 4.5 Hard-Soft% and the lowest aEV on the board (84.3 mph). We do need to mention some major control issues that have led to just a 4.9 K-BB% this year though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jake Odorizzi (.244 – 76.6% – 18.2) generally has a BABIP in the .270’s as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but he’s generating a ton of line drives and few pop-ups with a much lower BABIP this year. His 23.8 Hard-Soft% is unimpressive. As much as I don’t like dropping one of tonight’s better strikeout and swinging strike rates, he’s a reverse platoon arm facing an offense with some powerful RHBs that hit RHP well (16.3 HR/FB), even if they have yet to perform up to expectations. The Blue Jays do, surprisingly, have the fifth worst sOPS+ (89) vs fly ball pitchers, but $7.9K does not seem like a bargain considering the danger against limited upside. This is a pitcher who has only struck out 10 in a game three times in his career, the last instance coming over a year ago.
Ervin Santana (.154 – 88.6% – 10.9) has figured out BABIP? He’s now thrown three shutouts this year (SFG, BAL, CWS) and is making me look dumb, but I don’t think an 8.7 K-BB% merits a $10K price tag against a decent offense. He has managed contact well (3.7% Barrels/BBE, 29.7% 95+ mph EV, 2.1 Hard-Soft%) and should get some credit for that though.
Dylan Bundy (.258 – 84.4% – 9.9) has seen his velocity bump back up over his last three starts, which has resulted in an improvement in swings and misses (11.3%), but not strikeouts yet (18.3%). Stay tuned. For now though, he remains adequately priced at best with his BABIP and strand rate holding his ERA more than a run and a half below estimators. The HR rate might be a bit difficult to sustain as well.
Sam Gaviglio (.250 – 79.7% – 24.0) has seen six of his of his 25 fly balls leave the yard. He should see that drop in a larger sample, as he doesn’t appear to be getting hit that hard, but he’s unlikely to retain that BABIP and strand rate. His 5.8 SwStr% doesn’t even support his 16.1 K%.
Jeremy Hellickson (.238 – 74.6% – 13.2) compensates for an abysmal 10% strikeout rate and 7.0 SwStr% that isn’t all that much better with an unsustainably low BABIP.
Matt Garza (.286 – 69.3% – 11.5) has four unearned runs, not a lot, but 17.4% of his total right now. Over the last month, his strikeouts have cratered with a 21.8 Hard-Soft%.
Andrew Cashner (.269 – 79.1% – 7.6) has a -0.4 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Francis Martes is the top prospect for the Astros and is just 21 years old, but may not be ready yet. The stuff is fantastic and he should be fun to watch, but he’s walked 30 of the 181 batters he’s faced this year at AAA and the majors combined. This is his first start and he’s only surpassed five innings once and that was only by two outs. The Astros will likely be protective here and you could certainly do less interesting things for the cost on DraftKings, but aside from Kluber and maybe even Pineda, you don’t even really need to drop down that low tonight.
Francisco Liriano has the third highest aEV on the board (89.1%), but generally has had more of a problem generating weak contact (27.2 Hard-Soft%) than being consistently punished with hard contact as his barrel rates show. It’s tough to pass on his 22 K% against an offense with a 26.6 K% vs LHP, but that comes with a 10.6 BB% and a lot of power (18.8 HR/FB on the road, 23.3 HR/FB last seven days), which won’t mesh well with his 14.3 BB%.
Matt Harvey is likely to pitch five innings with around four walks and five strikeouts, allowing an indeterminate amount of runs, but tell you how great he feels afterward regardless. If post-game positivity were a daily fantasy category, he’d be rosterable tonight.
Matt Shoemaker is another guy with an enviable SwStr% that we hate to give up on tonight, but being so HR prone, even in a power suppressing park is not ideal against this difficult Yankee lineup. It may be the worst spot on the board despite the park. The Yankees have a 3.9 K-BB% and 22.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Taijuan Walker hasn’t pitched in three weeks and did not even get a rehab assignment. He returns in a tough spot in Detroit, likely on a reduced pitch count, having struck out just seven of his last 75 batters faced.
Chad Kuhl has an impressive SwStr% and one of the top matchups on the board at home against Colorado, but hasn’t gone more than five innings since April. He does not throw strikes. When he doesn’t get ahead, batters have less of an incentive to chase and therefore, he gets fewer strikeouts and runs his pitch count up. He also had only even been allowed more than 90 pitches just once this season.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.6% | Road | 17.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 16.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 10.0% | Road | 14.9% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.6% | 10.2% | Road | 22.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.2% | Road | 24.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 4.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.9% | 8.1% | Home | 15.0% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 17.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 6.4% | Home | 27.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 6.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.1% | Road | 20.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 6.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.9% | Home | 19.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Francis Martes | Astros | L2 Years | 11.1% | 11.1% | Home | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.5% | 11.2% | Home | 24.2% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 7.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.6% | Road | 22.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 10.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.3% | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.6% | Road | 19.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.2% | 6.0% | Home | 20.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.6% | Home | 21.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.6% | Home | 21.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 5.5% | Home | 14.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.2% | Road | 19.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.8% | Road | 13.5% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 21.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.2% | Home | 17.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 13.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.0% | Home | 25.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 7.6% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.7% | 5.8% | Road | 25.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.1% | Home | 16.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 5.8% | 7.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.6% | Home | 17.1% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.5% | 10.3% | Road | 19.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.8% | Road | 10.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.6% | 5.7% | Road | 18.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.8% | Home | 21.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 13.1% | 4.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 24.0% | 8.2% | LH | 24.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 26.3% | 7.0% |
| Astros | Home | 17.1% | 7.5% | RH | 17.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Indians | Home | 19.5% | 9.7% | RH | 20.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.5% | 8.6% | LH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.5% | 7.8% | RH | 22.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.2% | 10.5% | RH | 23.3% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 8.1% | RH | 23.0% | 5.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 5.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 8.0% | RH | 20.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.9% | 7.9% | RH | 23.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 8.5% |
| Rays | Road | 27.3% | 9.4% | LH | 26.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 9.3% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.6% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | RH | 18.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.1% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | RH | 20.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.0% |
| Royals | Road | 21.4% | 6.4% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.0% | 8.2% | RH | 23.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 12.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 8.8% | RH | 19.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 10.7% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 12.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.8% | 9.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 12.8% |
| Angels | Home | 18.2% | 8.3% | RH | 20.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.4% | 6.4% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.4% | 8.9% | RH | 24.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.9% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 9.3% | LH | 22.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.4% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 11.1% | RH | 22.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.8% | RH | 23.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.0% |
| Braves | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 39.4% | 26.2% | 27.1% | 2017 | 39.4% | 26.2% | 27.1% | Road | 44.8% | 30.4% | 31.4% | L14 Days | 55.6% | 36.4% | 44.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 2017 | 29.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | Road | 34.7% | 11.4% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.7% | 20.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2017 | 25.6% | 8.0% | -0.6% | Road | 25.9% | 6.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | -12.5% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 2017 | 33.9% | 15.4% | 10.2% | Road | 31.3% | 25.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 25.0% | 10.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.3% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 2017 | 31.4% | 7.6% | 14.0% | Home | 34.6% | 12.5% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 2017 | 37.2% | 15.2% | 16.3% | Home | 28.2% | 11.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 0.0% | -12.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2017 | 34.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | Road | 33.3% | 12.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 2017 | 23.3% | 10.9% | 2.1% | Home | 27.3% | 10.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 21.4% | -2.4% |
| Francis Martes | Astros | L2 Years | 30.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 2017 | 30.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% | Home | 30.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.3% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 2017 | 36.0% | 13.2% | 27.2% | Home | 35.6% | 11.5% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 56.7% | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.9% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 2017 | 36.1% | 11.3% | 22.5% | Road | 39.1% | 12.1% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 40.0% | 31.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 2017 | 36.3% | 18.2% | 23.8% | Road | 33.2% | 14.1% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 55.2% | 30.0% | 41.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 2017 | 32.4% | 9.6% | 15.5% | Road | 35.8% | 15.4% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 10.0% | 17.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.3% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 2017 | 28.9% | 13.2% | 8.8% | Home | 22.7% | 13.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 18.8% | 26.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.2% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.9% | 15.4% | 12.0% | Home | 28.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 16.7% | 26.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 36.4% | 16.3% | 23.0% | Home | 27.5% | 3.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 2017 | 38.2% | 17.5% | 23.6% | Home | 36.5% | 14.5% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 11.1% | 18.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 2017 | 31.6% | 15.3% | 8.9% | Road | 32.2% | 9.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 21.4% | 23.1% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.7% | 12.3% | 19.3% | 2017 | 36.7% | 11.5% | 25.9% | Road | 31.5% | 7.1% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2017 | 34.3% | 19.4% | 8.7% | Home | 31.1% | 14.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 2017 | 36.3% | 14.4% | 21.7% | Home | 32.2% | 11.8% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.0% | 17.9% | 12.9% | 2017 | 28.6% | 21.0% | 10.0% | Road | 28.9% | 15.8% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 16.7% | 5.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.1% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.5% | 11.7% | 17.9% | Home | 27.7% | 7.0% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 48.9% | 23.5% | 40.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 2017 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 10.7% | Home | 26.0% | 16.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 14.4% | 9.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% | Road | 25.5% | 14.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.4% | 24.0% | 21.1% | 2017 | 34.4% | 24.0% | 21.1% | Road | 24.4% | 25.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 48.3% | 40.0% | 38.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 2017 | 33.1% | 8.0% | 16.5% | Road | 29.3% | 14.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.2% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 2017 | 26.9% | 11.5% | 12.4% | Home | 26.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 17.6% | 14.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 28.1% | 12.8% | 5.8% | LH | 29.9% | 11.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 32.8% | 16.4% | 12.5% |
| Astros | Home | 29.4% | 15.8% | 11.2% | RH | 31.7% | 15.0% | 14.3% | L7Days | 33.9% | 10.8% | 16.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.6% | 13.9% | 15.4% | RH | 34.1% | 13.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 31.3% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.4% | 14.8% | 10.2% | LH | 28.7% | 16.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 4.1% | 12.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 12.6% | 9.9% | RH | 29.6% | 13.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.8% | 10.7% | 17.3% | RH | 34.5% | 13.7% | 19.8% | L7Days | 33.8% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.8% | 12.4% | 6.4% | RH | 30.6% | 13.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 36.3% | 10.0% | 17.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 32.4% | 10.3% | 15.0% | RH | 31.0% | 11.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.8% | 18.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.9% | 14.7% | 10.1% | RH | 32.2% | 15.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 18.0% | 10.5% |
| Rays | Road | 35.1% | 18.8% | 16.3% | LH | 34.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | L7Days | 38.8% | 23.3% | 25.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 9.6% | 7.6% | RH | 30.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.7% | 13.7% | 10.5% | RH | 31.1% | 16.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 35.5% | 20.0% | 19.4% |
| Giants | Home | 25.0% | 6.6% | 3.7% | RH | 28.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% | RH | 36.0% | 10.1% | 18.6% | L7Days | 40.1% | 7.0% | 24.3% |
| Reds | Road | 29.0% | 14.3% | 9.1% | RH | 28.7% | 14.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Road | 32.3% | 15.3% | 13.4% | RH | 32.6% | 12.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 39.9% | 19.0% | 24.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.1% | 13.0% | 10.3% | RH | 36.6% | 16.9% | 20.1% | L7Days | 41.4% | 24.5% | 24.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 15.6% | 15.7% | RH | 31.1% | 14.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.1% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 29.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | RH | 30.3% | 12.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 27.4% | 13.0% | 6.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.5% | 12.8% | 8.3% | RH | 29.9% | 13.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 21.7% | 14.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 32.1% | 13.4% | 14.6% | RH | 32.8% | 18.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 38.0% | 22.9% | 20.6% |
| Angels | Home | 28.0% | 14.2% | 9.0% | RH | 30.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 7.9% | 13.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.2% | 14.1% | 14.7% | RH | 29.3% | 14.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.0% | 13.0% | 2.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | RH | 33.6% | 17.8% | 14.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Mets | Home | 34.0% | 9.8% | 15.0% | LH | 34.5% | 10.3% | 12.7% | L7Days | 37.7% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| Twins | Home | 33.8% | 12.0% | 18.1% | RH | 33.8% | 14.5% | 18.0% | L7Days | 34.5% | 14.9% | 15.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.0% | 14.3% | 37.1% | RH | 42.6% | 12.7% | 27.8% | L7Days | 40.1% | 13.2% | 26.9% |
| Braves | Road | 31.9% | 12.9% | 13.9% | RH | 31.4% | 11.0% | 13.3% | L7Days | 30.0% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.10 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 2.27 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 10.6% | 5.6% | 1.89 | 9.0% | 5.5% | 1.64 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 22.1% | 9.1% | 2.43 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.31 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.54 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 2.64 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 18.2% | 11.3% | 1.61 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.92 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 28.9% | 13.9% | 2.08 | 39.1% | 21.1% | 1.85 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.0% | 10.2% | 1.76 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 1.76 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 18.4% | 8.3% | 2.22 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 2.14 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 11.1% | 12.8% | 0.87 | 11.1% | 12.8% | 0.87 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 22.0% | 10.9% | 2.02 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 2.12 |
| German Marquez | COL | 22.6% | 9.4% | 2.40 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 2.56 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.4% | 11.3% | 1.89 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 2.08 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.07 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 2.08 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 10.7% | 7.0% | 1.53 | 10.7% | 6.1% | 1.75 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.48 | 24.6% | 11.2% | 2.20 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 23.6% | 12.0% | 1.97 | 28.0% | 13.2% | 2.12 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.0% | 8.1% | 1.73 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.04 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.7% | 8.6% | 1.94 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 2.10 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 17.9% | 9.0% | 1.99 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 1.77 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 16.7% | 7.7% | 2.17 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 2.60 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 21.6% | 11.6% | 1.86 | 20.8% | 13.1% | 1.59 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 25.6% | 13.3% | 1.92 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 1.50 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.0% | 6.5% | 2.00 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 2.32 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.05 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.07 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 2.02 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 16.1% | 5.8% | 2.78 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.47 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.6% | 9.5% | 2.17 | 13.6% | 6.7% | 2.03 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.05 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.75 |
Michael Pineda had that one blip against Toronto, but bounced right back.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 7.4 | 5.14 | -2.26 | 5.28 | -2.12 | 7.36 | -0.04 | 7.91 | 0.51 | 16.34 | 6.01 | -10.33 | 6.84 | -9.5 | 13.93 | -2.41 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.17 | 5.85 | 2.68 | 5.46 | 2.29 | 4.69 | 1.52 | 6.18 | 3.01 | 3.94 | 5.43 | 1.49 | 4.99 | 1.05 | 4.11 | 0.17 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.28 | 3.95 | 0.67 | 3.69 | 0.41 | 3.07 | -0.21 | 3.31 | 0.03 | 3.45 | 3.63 | 0.18 | 3.43 | -0.02 | 2.48 | -0.97 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 3.44 | 4.22 | 0.78 | 4.5 | 1.06 | 4.85 | 1.41 | 4.42 | 0.98 | 2.03 | 4.11 | 2.08 | 4.2 | 2.17 | 3.78 | 1.75 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.63 | 4.96 | -0.67 | 5.05 | -0.58 | 4.12 | -1.51 | 4.39 | -1.24 | 5.4 | 4.86 | -0.54 | 4.79 | -0.61 | 4.44 | -0.96 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.38 | 3.45 | -0.93 | 3.32 | -1.06 | 3.53 | -0.85 | 3.61 | -0.77 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 0 | 1.88 | -0.37 | 0.86 | -1.39 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 3.05 | 4.82 | 1.77 | 4.94 | 1.89 | 4.32 | 1.27 | 5.54 | 2.49 | 4.35 | 5.06 | 0.71 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 5.72 | 1.37 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.84 | 2.64 | 4.46 | 2.26 | 3.13 | 0.93 | 3.25 | 5.12 | 1.87 | 5.11 | 1.86 | 4.78 | 1.53 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 9.82 | 5.71 | -4.11 | 7.34 | -2.48 | 8.02 | -1.8 | 6.13 | -3.69 | 9.82 | 5.71 | -4.11 | 7.34 | -2.48 | 8.02 | -1.8 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.87 | 5.05 | -0.82 | 4.95 | -0.92 | 4.91 | -0.96 | 5.33 | -0.54 | 4.5 | 4.06 | -0.44 | 4.46 | -0.04 | 4.61 | 0.11 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.44 | 4.19 | -0.25 | 4.23 | -0.21 | 3.93 | -0.51 | 5.20 | 0.76 | 4.01 | 4.07 | 0.06 | 4.29 | 0.28 | 4.41 | 0.4 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.59 | 4.32 | 0.73 | 4.33 | 0.74 | 5.03 | 1.44 | 4.81 | 1.22 | 4.73 | 4.47 | -0.26 | 4.47 | -0.26 | 5.36 | 0.63 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.43 | 4.89 | -0.54 | 5.28 | -0.15 | 4.55 | -0.88 | 5.36 | -0.07 | 4.8 | 4.87 | 0.07 | 5.16 | 0.36 | 4.64 | -0.16 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.5 | 5.66 | 1.16 | 5.85 | 1.35 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 6.29 | 1.79 | 5.67 | 5.81 | 0.14 | 6.07 | 0.4 | 6.23 | 0.56 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 5.35 | 4.24 | -1.11 | 4.11 | -1.24 | 4.34 | -1.01 | 5.31 | -0.04 | 5.76 | 3.74 | -2.02 | 3.43 | -2.33 | 3.59 | -2.17 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.33 | 3.86 | -0.47 | 3.69 | -0.64 | 4.05 | -0.28 | 3.74 | -0.59 | 4.66 | 3.29 | -1.37 | 3.05 | -1.61 | 3.66 | -1 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.72 | 5.31 | -0.41 | 5.49 | -0.23 | 6.24 | 0.52 | 6.82 | 1.10 | 4.97 | 4.82 | -0.15 | 4.76 | -0.21 | 6.35 | 1.38 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.08 | 5.19 | 0.11 | 5.43 | 0.35 | 5.75 | 0.67 | 6.52 | 1.44 | 6.84 | 4.91 | -1.93 | 5.24 | -1.6 | 7.78 | 0.94 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 3.83 | 4.57 | 0.74 | 4.48 | 0.65 | 4.18 | 0.35 | 5.29 | 1.46 | 5.14 | 5.16 | 0.02 | 5.28 | 0.14 | 4.63 | -0.51 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 5.02 | 5.27 | 0.25 | 5.07 | 0.05 | 5.85 | 0.83 | 4.74 | -0.28 | 4.1 | 5.25 | 1.15 | 5.03 | 0.93 | 4.78 | 0.68 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.22 | 4.46 | 0.24 | 4.79 | 0.57 | 4.96 | 0.74 | 5.02 | 0.80 | 3.82 | 4.27 | 0.45 | 4.25 | 0.43 | 4.32 | 0.5 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.39 | 3.43 | 0.04 | 3.33 | -0.06 | 4.17 | 0.78 | 2.42 | -0.97 | 3.56 | 4.44 | 0.88 | 4.32 | 0.76 | 4.79 | 1.23 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.89 | 5.37 | 0.48 | 5.43 | 0.54 | 5.1 | 0.21 | 6.84 | 1.95 | 6.52 | 5.67 | -0.85 | 5.47 | -1.05 | 5.87 | -0.65 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 2.7 | 3.86 | 1.16 | 3.68 | 0.98 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 3.71 | 1.01 | 3.74 | 3.58 | -0.16 | 3.54 | -0.2 | 4.12 | 0.38 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.43 | 4.69 | 2.26 | 4.42 | 1.99 | 4.07 | 1.64 | 4.99 | 2.56 | 4.6 | 4.55 | -0.05 | 4.35 | -0.25 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 2.79 | 4.47 | 1.68 | 4.24 | 1.45 | 5.42 | 2.63 | 5.74 | 2.95 | 2.67 | 4.79 | 2.12 | 4.49 | 1.82 | 5.41 | 2.74 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.46 | 4.27 | 0.81 | 4.18 | 0.72 | 3.49 | 0.03 | 3.91 | 0.45 | 0 | 5.87 | 5.87 | 5.07 | 5.07 | 3.61 | 3.61 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.87 | 4.44 | 0.57 | 4.32 | 0.45 | 4.07 | 0.2 | 4.11 | 0.24 | 3.86 | 4.47 | 0.61 | 4.48 | 0.62 | 4.49 | 0.63 |
Brandon McCarthy has generated just an 8.0 HR/FB. His contact management has been exceptional, but again, that’s not necessarily predictive.
Corey Kluber allowed quite a bit of hard contact and suffers a poor defense, which has led to the .328 BABIP and 15.2 HR/FB (highest of his career). He generally runs a high BABIP and low strand rate, but things have improved since returning from injury.
Mike Leake really has no support for his low BABIP and 81.6 LOB%. He’s likely to regress at some point, but still is probably having the best season of his career. He’s missing a few more bats and generating less hard contact with the highest ground ball rate of his career.
Mike Montgomery has generated a lot of weak contact on the ground, but his .252 BABIP, 82.0 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB all scream massive regression with a 4.9 K-BB%. The Chicago defense has not been nearly as strong this year.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.281 | 0.245 | -0.036 | 41.7% | 0.179 | 4.9% | 88.4% | 89.5 | 7.10% | 5.00% | 155 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.278 | 0.269 | -0.009 | 49.5% | 0.193 | 4.5% | 93.4% | 86.6 | 3.80% | 2.90% | 213 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.281 | 0.281 | 0 | 46.0% | 0.23 | 20.0% | 86.1% | 84.4 | 2.40% | 1.70% | 164 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.318 | 0.291 | -0.027 | 37.3% | 0.186 | 3.8% | 92.3% | 88.2 | 13.60% | 10.10% | 59 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.305 | 0.341 | 0.036 | 40.8% | 0.201 | 6.1% | 85.1% | 87 | 5.20% | 3.70% | 172 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.312 | 0.328 | 0.016 | 42.6% | 0.217 | 10.9% | 82.6% | 87.8 | 7.00% | 4.40% | 129 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.312 | 0.258 | -0.054 | 31.3% | 0.225 | 15.3% | 86.6% | 87.5 | 8.20% | 6.10% | 244 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.284 | 0.154 | -0.13 | 44.2% | 0.138 | 11.9% | 90.5% | 84.8 | 3.70% | 2.60% | 244 |
| Francis Martes | HOU | 0.292 | 0.250 | -0.042 | 46.2% | 0.077 | 33.3% | 80.0% | ||||
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.302 | 0.330 | 0.028 | 46.0% | 0.204 | 5.3% | 85.4% | 89.1 | 7.90% | 4.90% | 114 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.285 | 0.324 | 0.039 | 43.2% | 0.205 | 9.4% | 90.9% | 89.7 | 6.80% | 4.60% | 147 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.292 | 0.244 | -0.048 | 34.9% | 0.253 | 4.5% | 82.0% | 86.7 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 168 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.302 | 0.314 | 0.012 | 35.4% | 0.203 | 9.6% | 89.6% | 88.5 | 7.50% | 5.50% | 213 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.304 | 0.238 | -0.066 | 35.7% | 0.203 | 13.2% | 88.2% | 85.9 | 7.20% | 5.80% | 249 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.303 | 0.304 | 0.001 | 52.3% | 0.176 | 10.8% | 88.5% | 87 | 6.50% | 4.60% | 217 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 40.2% | 0.256 | 10.0% | 84.5% | 88.1 | 7.10% | 5.00% | 239 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.312 | 0.306 | -0.006 | 32.8% | 0.249 | 12.4% | 90.7% | 88.2 | 9.90% | 7.70% | 233 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 34.9% | 0.223 | 7.1% | 87.8% | 85.5 | 7.30% | 5.30% | 234 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.308 | 0.286 | -0.022 | 40.7% | 0.207 | 11.5% | 89.4% | 86.8 | 6.50% | 4.90% | 139 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.320 | 0.258 | -0.062 | 45.8% | 0.212 | 10.4% | 88.9% | 85.9 | 7.70% | 5.50% | 207 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.286 | 0.266 | -0.02 | 38.8% | 0.148 | 5.2% | 86.8% | 88.3 | 8.50% | 5.80% | 212 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.276 | 0.274 | -0.002 | 51.5% | 0.168 | 6.5% | 86.3% | 86.2 | 6.50% | 4.40% | 199 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.278 | 0.290 | 0.012 | 37.9% | 0.213 | 8.7% | 91.8% | 88 | 7.00% | 5.60% | 257 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.290 | 0.257 | -0.033 | 54.8% | 0.191 | 1.6% | 89.8% | 87.1 | 5.30% | 4.10% | 245 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.292 | 0.252 | -0.04 | 57.9% | 0.206 | 0.0% | 87.7% | 84.3 | 4.60% | 3.00% | 109 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.287 | 0.250 | -0.037 | 52.9% | 0.184 | 8.0% | 93.4% | 87.1 | 5.60% | 4.20% | 90 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.289 | 0.294 | 0.005 | 50.0% | 0.175 | 12.0% | 84.4% | 87.7 | 5.70% | 4.00% | 157 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.295 | 0.296 | 0.001 | 45.1% | 0.217 | 7.7% | 85.3% | 86.4 | 5.80% | 4.20% | 242 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Michael Pineda (1) is coming off a strong effort and gets a significant park upgrade, facing a below average offense. While a few may compete for value with an $11.1K DK cost, he’s alone at the top for $2.4K less on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Mike Leake (3) is missing enough bats to be useful and could miss a few more against the Brewers tonight, while he’s generating ground balls and less hard contact than average in a favorable park against an offense whose best weapon is power. He costs just $6.8K on DraftKings. Placement may seem a bit high here, but I’m envisioning something like seven innings, two runs with six strikeouts, which may be one of the better lines you’ll see tonight.
Corey Kluber (2) has been fantastic since returning from injury. The matchup is a bit concerning in a difficult park tonight, but the great news is that his contact management problems have disappeared since coming back, while he’s getting swings and misses on more than one-fifth of his pitches.
Value Tier Three
Mike Montgomery has some major control issues and may only go five innings, but he’s in a nice spot, has a very low cost and has managed contact extremely well.
Brandon McCarthy did go seven innings for the second time last time out and has pitched well, but the major issue here is that the Dodgers don’t usually let their injury prone pitchers reach 100 pitches. In fact, he hasn’t even reached 90 in any of his last four starts and would probably fall out of play for us on most days due to this. The matchup isn’t the worst, but it is the most positive run environment we’ll see tonight in Cleveland.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
German Marquez does not necessarily limit hard contact outside of Coors, but has pitched well enough with an ability to miss some bats when he hasn’t been at home. The Pirates are a tough team to pile up fantasy points against because they walk and don’t strike out much, but there’s some compensation in damage limitation due to the park and lack of fire power in the lineup.
Brian Johnson has decent peripherals, but has been hit hard by some hard hitting teams. That’s kept his cost below $7K against not such a team. Even a back of the rotation arm may be worth that against the Phillies today.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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