Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 10th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodon | CHW | CHC | 60.1 | 4.18 | 4.16 | 1.64 | 22.6% | 12.8% | 0.60 | 1.84 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | CHW | 172.1 | 3.19 | 3.73 | 1.12 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 0.68 | 1.49 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | BAL | 247.1 | 3.78 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 46.7% | 23.2% | 8.6% | 0.51 | 1.59 |
| Tillman | BAL | WAS | 291.1 | 3.99 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 42.9% | 16.9% | 8.3% | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| Lynn | STL | PIT | 296 | 2.68 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 22.2% | 8.2% | 0.55 | 1.19 |
| Cole | PIT | STL | 248.1 | 3.04 | 3.09 | 1.17 | 28.6% | 24.7% | 6.5% | 0.62 | 1.74 |
| Anderson | ARI | NYM | 211.1 | 3.88 | 4.01 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 18.7% | 7.2% | 1.11 | 1.19 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | ARI | 58.2 | 3.38 | 3.11 | 1.16 | 24.2% | 4.9% | 0.77 | 1.40 | |
| McHugh | HOU | TBR | 261.2 | 3.47 | 3.45 | 1.14 | 42.9% | 22.5% | 6.3% | 0.89 | 1.26 |
| Ramirez | TBR | HOU | 148.2 | 4.54 | 4.22 | 1.34 | 27.3% | 18.9% | 9.2% | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| Hahn | OAK | CLE | 170 | 3.23 | 3.80 | 1.19 | 57.1% | 18.8% | 8.0% | 0.48 | 2.10 |
| Salazar | CLE | OAK | 200 | 4.19 | 3.12 | 1.30 | 12.5% | 26.9% | 7.1% | 1.17 | 0.98 |
| Pineda | NYY | BOS | 176 | 2.97 | 3.00 | 1.05 | 75.0% | 23.3% | 2.8% | 0.72 | 1.27 |
| Buchholz | BOS | NYY | 280.1 | 4.53 | 3.69 | 1.31 | 33.3% | 19.8% | 6.5% | 0.71 | 1.46 |
| Holmberg | CIN | MIA | 30 | 4.80 | 5.32 | 1.43 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 2.40 | 0.83 | |
| Phelps | MIA | CIN | 195.2 | 4.23 | 4.21 | 1.35 | 42.9% | 17.5% | 8.0% | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Kennedy | SDP | TEX | 281 | 3.97 | 3.53 | 1.30 | 47.6% | 23.7% | 7.9% | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | SDP | 105.1 | 4.87 | 4.31 | 1.54 | 17.4% | 8.2% | 1.54 | 1.19 | |
| Verlander | DET | MIN | 228.2 | 4.76 | 4.30 | 1.42 | 35.0% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Santana | MIN | DET | 204 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 1.28 | 38.9% | 22.1% | 7.8% | 0.75 | 1.30 |
| Estrada | TOR | KCR | 231 | 4.09 | 3.97 | 1.19 | 27.8% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 1.52 | 0.71 |
| Duffy | KCR | TOR | 205.1 | 3.24 | 4.42 | 1.24 | 57.1% | 18.0% | 9.0% | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Miller | ATL | COL | 291.2 | 3.12 | 4.32 | 1.21 | 21.1% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Santiago | LAA | SEA | 228.2 | 3.15 | 4.25 | 1.24 | 16.7% | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.10 | 0.59 |
| Montgomery | SEA | LAA | 50 | 1.62 | 4.29 | 0.94 | 16.1% | 6.7% | 0.36 | 1.29 | |
| Nelson | MIL | LAD | 171.1 | 4.68 | 3.89 | 1.37 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.00 | 1.56 | |
| Bolsinger | LAD | MIL | 119.1 | 4.15 | 3.46 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 21.6% | 8.0% | 0.75 | 2.12 |
| Hamels | PHI | SFG | 318 | 2.66 | 3.26 | 1.14 | 58.8% | 24.4% | 7.3% | 0.71 | 1.53 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | PHI | 330.2 | 3.10 | 3.02 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.8% | 0.93 | 1.19 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. PHI) – It might look funky, but Bumgarner’s delivery features A-grade mechanics and one of the most consistent release points in the game, helping to disguise his pitch types as everything looks the same out of hand. Bummer’s velocity has held firm in the 92.0-92.8 mph range every season until now, but he jumped to 93.7 mph in the 2014 playoffs and is at 93.5 mph on average for this season (stats from www.BrooksBaseball.net). The ERA of 3.34 might be up slightly but all of the indicators are pointing in the right direction, including a K-per-inning and the best walk rate of his career, not to mention an opponents OPS of 654 that’s within one point of last season.
Cole Hamels PHI (at SF) – He’s completed the seventh inning with two or fewer runs allowed in nine of his last 11 starts, though the two outliers involved extra runs as well as a shortage of outs. Hamels has a pair of five-run stinkers in his recent history, but the fact that they were sandwiched around his best game of the season (a 12-strikeout gem against the Pirates) exemplifies the hit or miss when it comes to rostering the soon-to-be-former Phillie. Buster Posey mashes lefties, but the rest of the San Francisco lineup has struggled with a team OPS of just 675 versus southpaws this season, so getting Hunter Pence back in the lineup helps to re-balance the scales.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. STL) – His dozen wins lead the majors, and though predicting future W’s is a fool’s errand, the record is indicative of Cole’s consistency this season. He has surrendered more than three runs in just one of his 17 starts, has yet to walk more than three batters in any ballgame, and has struck out a batter-per-inning on the year. The only knock against Cole is that he hasn’t spiked many big scores this season, but if his repertoire is clicking then there could be a pile of K’s in his near future.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Lance Lynn STL (at PIT) – It seems that this guy never gets his due, but judging by his exorbitant salary on some of the DFS sites today, the respect might be coming back around with an over-correction. Lynn hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game since late May, is striking out a career-best 25.1 percent of batters with a career-low 8.0 percent walk rate. The hits are falling in a bit less than usual but he’s essentially in line with the previous three seasons, all down to a low rate of homers allowed, contributing to a FIP of 2.72 supports his 2.53 ERA.
Michael Pineda NYY (at BOS) – Some pitchers walk between the raindrops, but rostering Pineda is to survive a minefield of potential blow-ups. The peripheral stats are beautiful, with 105 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 99.7 innings pitched, but his game log tells a tale of feast of famine. Case in point: his last two games have included 18 strikeouts and one walk through 15 innings of solid work, but he was coming off of an eight-run drubbing versus the easy-target Phillies who registered a dozen baserunners with zero strikeouts in 3.0 innings against Pineda. Roster with caution.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. OAK) – Salazar is simultaneously the most likely starting pitcher to fall short of 5.0 innings pitched and the most likely to punch out 10 or more hitters, and he could easily accomplish both in the same ballgame. The right-hander has failed to finish the fifth frame in three of his last four starts, making him a risky play against Oakland, but few pitchers offer his height of upside in the strikeout department. Recently, his worst games in terms of run prevention also feature the most strikeouts, a mix that keeps Salazar from sinking your team’s battleship but is barely keeping it afloat.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. ARI) – Thor is averaging more than 98 mph on his fastball, which explodes out of his hand following a more deliberate pace to the plate and has put the finishing touch on 32 of his 59 strikeouts this season. He off-sets the heat with a sharp-breaking curve with a 12-to-6 shape that has been known to buckle knees with the best of ‘em, and perhaps most impressive has been Synder’s ability to command both pitches. He faces a tall task against Paul Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks, thus opening the range of potential outcomes.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodon | 0.250 | 4.50 | 0.373 | 4.02 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.349 | 3.68 | 0.269 | 86.77 | 22.6% |
| Hendricks | 0.290 | 2.50 | 0.288 | 3.77 | 0.249 | 0.679 | 0.285 | 3.37 | 0.246 | 87.41 | 17.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.283 | 3.75 | 0.310 | 3.79 | 0.263 | 0.714 | 0.313 | 3.07 | 0.243 | 96.45 | 23.2% |
| Tillman | 0.305 | 3.11 | 0.331 | 5.03 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.283 | 4.18 | 0.25 | 97.70 | 16.9% |
| Lynn | 0.303 | 3.06 | 0.285 | 2.39 | 0.258 | 0.700 | 0.296 | 3.15 | 0.235 | 104.81 | 22.2% |
| Cole | 0.296 | 2.30 | 0.292 | 3.71 | 0.269 | 0.733 | 0.311 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 100.00 | 24.7% |
| Anderson | 0.304 | 3.39 | 0.343 | 4.28 | 0.233 | 0.647 | 0.292 | 4.15 | 0.256 | 92.11 | 18.7% |
| Syndergaard | 0.265 | 2.79 | 0.309 | 3.94 | 0.264 | 0.727 | 0.307 | 2.89 | 0.243 | 97.20 | 24.2% |
| McHugh | 0.282 | 3.26 | 0.300 | 3.73 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 0.280 | 3.48 | 0.23 | 100.00 | 22.5% |
| Ramirez | 0.304 | 3.71 | 0.355 | 5.72 | 0.244 | 0.738 | 0.284 | 4.63 | 0.247 | 67.06 | 18.9% |
| Hahn | 0.310 | 4.39 | 0.250 | 2.09 | 0.242 | 0.696 | 0.272 | 3.43 | 0.226 | 90.37 | 18.8% |
| Salazar | 0.314 | 4.06 | 0.326 | 4.28 | 0.266 | 0.732 | 0.328 | 3.52 | 0.255 | 96.94 | 26.9% |
| Pineda | 0.278 | 2.79 | 0.284 | 3.13 | 0.263 | 0.730 | 0.298 | 2.63 | 0.24 | 92.86 | 23.3% |
| Buchholz | 0.322 | 4.21 | 0.309 | 4.92 | 0.258 | 0.752 | 0.319 | 3.43 | 0.264 | 97.73 | 19.8% |
| Holmberg | 0.425 | 6.00 | 0.356 | 4.50 | 0.268 | 0.742 | 0.213 | 7.60 | 0.235 | 73.71 | 13.1% |
| Phelps | 0.307 | 3.70 | 0.335 | 4.78 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.295 | 4.14 | 0.256 | 66.63 | 17.5% |
| Kennedy | 0.317 | 3.76 | 0.335 | 4.17 | 0.256 | 0.736 | 0.309 | 3.78 | 0.25 | 100.02 | 23.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.366 | 5.82 | 0.360 | 4.63 | 0.235 | 0.658 | 0.314 | 4.93 | 0.283 | 93.70 | 17.4% |
| Verlander | 0.315 | 3.68 | 0.370 | 6.30 | 0.250 | 0.699 | 0.312 | 4.07 | 0.272 | 105.83 | 17.1% |
| Santana | 0.330 | 3.97 | 0.296 | 3.79 | 0.280 | 0.765 | 0.313 | 3.41 | 0.253 | 96.25 | 22.1% |
| Estrada | 0.306 | 3.79 | 0.325 | 4.37 | 0.273 | 0.737 | 0.252 | 4.63 | 0.229 | 68.40 | 20.3% |
| Duffy | 0.226 | 1.99 | 0.319 | 3.64 | 0.296 | 0.841 | 0.267 | 3.98 | 0.231 | 81.31 | 18.0% |
| Miller | 0.307 | 3.64 | 0.276 | 2.69 | 0.270 | 0.765 | 0.256 | 3.99 | 0.224 | 91.82 | 17.9% |
| Santiago | 0.238 | 1.87 | 0.320 | 3.68 | 0.246 | 0.688 | 0.264 | 4.21 | 0.227 | 84.70 | 20.7% |
| Montgomery | 0.292 | 2.19 | 0.221 | 1.43 | 0.242 | 0.697 | 0.221 | 3.26 | 0.191 | 98.43 | 16.1% |
| Nelson | 0.368 | 5.42 | 0.307 | 4.10 | 0.256 | 0.779 | 0.314 | 4.13 | 0.268 | 86.74 | 18.9% |
| Bolsinger | 0.358 | 4.13 | 0.305 | 4.16 | 0.258 | 0.711 | 0.337 | 3.39 | 0.272 | 86.00 | 21.6% |
| Hamels | 0.268 | 1.48 | 0.288 | 2.98 | 0.258 | 0.675 | 0.288 | 3.16 | 0.226 | 105.28 | 24.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.296 | 3.33 | 0.260 | 0.698 | 0.294 | 3.11 | 0.235 | 101.62 | 25.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Collin McHugh HOU (at TB) – The right-hander seemed on the verge of a turnaround, having finished the eighth inning in consecutive starts with just three combined runs allowed and 14 strikeouts against three walks; but in his last turn McHugh gave up 10 baserunners while generating 16 outs, only one of which via the strikeout. It’s been a tumultuous season following his 2014 breakout, and McHugh is a dicey play even though the Rays are vulnerable versus right-handed pitching.
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. NYY) – Buchholz has been a ticking timebomb in his career, and if history is any guide then he will soon find himself at the center of a maelstrom of hits and runs. Buchholz has made a habit of teasing high-upside peaks before exposing how deep the valley goes, and fantasy managers can’t help but feel that his current four-game run is a setup for a forthcoming DFS downfall: 31.0 innings of 0.87 ERA baseball with 23 strikeouts and three walks, plus a complete game victory in his last start. Sox-Yanks always turns up the heat on the pressure cooker and Buchholz has not responded well, with a career ERA of 6.38 in 84.7 innings against their rivals.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at BAL) – Gio’s struggles this season remain somewhat of a mystery. His velocity has held steady with previous seasons, and though his sinker has been hit hard in 2015 that was also true the last couple of years. The K rate is down and the hit rate is way up, indicating that batters are getting a better look at his pitches, but he has allowed homers at the same low rate that we’ve come to expect from Gonzalez. His ability to squelch the longball will come in handy against a Baltimore club that has knocked the fourth most bombs in the majors this season.
Hector Santiago LAA (at SEA) – The left-hander’s FIP has exceeded 4.00 in four consecutive seasons and yet the highest ERA on his resume is last season’s 3.75. He is on new ground in 2015, with a miniscule 2.40 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. He has tossed three consecutive quality starts, covering 20.0 innings and giving up just eight hits and two runs combined. The Mariners have a couple of left-handed hitters who are already slogging through 2015 and struggle further with a southpaw on the mound, but they are countered by the right-handed power of Nelson Cruz and new addition Mark Trumbo. Santiago’s luck is due to run out soon, but the weak-hitting M’s might just extend his stay of execution.
Shelby Miller ATL (at COL) – Miller is having an outstanding season to reestablish his value, making improvements to stuff as well as mechanics to become a standout in the Braves rotation. I’m not so sure that he has the secret sauce with which to defeat Coors Field, where his new cutter could be marginalized.
Mike Leake CIN (at MIA)
Mike Montgomery SEA (vs. LAA)
Justin Verlander DET (at MIN)
Chase Anderson ARI (at NYM)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. HOU)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at LAD)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at CLE)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (vs. SD)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. DET)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (vs. MIL)
Marco Estrada TOR (at KC)
David Phelps MIA (vs. CIN)
Ian Kennedy SD (at TEX)
Chris Tillman BAL (vs. WAS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Colorado Pitcher COL (vs. ATL)
Danny Duffy KC (vs. TOR)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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