Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 337.1 | 1.95 | 3.05 | 0.93 | 50.0% | 26.90% | 6.9% | 0.40 | 2.32 |
| Liriano | PIT | CHC | 269.1 | 3.98 | 3.88 | 1.34 | 12.5% | 24.90% | 10.7% | 0.97 | 1.81 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | BAL | 222.2 | 4.32 | 3.81 | 1.26 | 44.4% | 22.00% | 5.7% | 1.41 | 0.95 |
| Jimenez | BAL | LAA | 260.0 | 4.85 | 4.23 | 1.52 | 27.8% | 20.50% | 9.8% | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| Pelfrey | DET | TOR | 250.2 | 4.52 | 4.81 | 1.57 | 0.0% | 11.50% | 7.0% | 0.86 | 1.92 |
| Happ | TOR | DET | 271.2 | 3.64 | 4.14 | 1.26 | 30.8% | 19.50% | 6.8% | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| Straily | CIN | MIA | 112.0 | 4.50 | 4.83 | 1.25 | 14.3% | 19.40% | 10.8% | 1.12 | 0.87 |
| Fernandez | MIA | CIN | 165.0 | 2.78 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 75.0% | 34.10% | 6.8% | 0.60 | 1.29 |
| Green | NYY | CLE | |||||||||
| Kluber | CLE | NYY | 332.2 | 3.49 | 3.12 | 1.03 | 57.1% | 26.90% | 5.1% | 0.81 | 1.30 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 310.1 | 3.71 | 3.32 | 1.24 | 55.0% | 28.30% | 8.4% | 1.04 | 1.36 |
| O’Sullivan | BOS | TBR | 82.1 | 6.34 | 5.13 | 1.64 | 0.0% | 11.00% | 5.7% | 1.97 | 1.04 |
| Strasburg | WAS | NYM | 220.1 | 3.23 | 2.83 | 1.09 | 52.4% | 30.60% | 5.6% | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | WAS | 244.0 | 2.95 | 2.81 | 1.05 | 0.0% | 28.70% | 4.7% | 0.89 | 1.62 |
| Gibson | MIN | TEX | 240.1 | 4.08 | 4.27 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 17.00% | 8.1% | 0.86 | 1.97 |
| Hamels | TEX | MIN | 316.0 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.19 | 58.8% | 24.20% | 7.6% | 1.05 | 1.57 |
| Wisler | ATL | CWS | 204.2 | 4.44 | 4.84 | 1.35 | 0.0% | 16.10% | 7.7% | 1.28 | 0.83 |
| Sale | CWS | ATL | 328.2 | 3.23 | 2.86 | 1.05 | 64.3% | 29.60% | 5.0% | 1.01 | 1.16 |
| Mengden | OAK | HOU | 25.2 | 2.81 | 3.90 | 1.17 | 0.0% | 24.30% | 8.4% | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| McHugh | HOU | OAK | 294.0 | 4.10 | 3.96 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 20.20% | 6.2% | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| Velasquez | PHI | COL | 122.1 | 3.83 | 3.57 | 1.26 | 0.0% | 27.20% | 8.5% | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Gray | COL | PHI | 117.0 | 5.08 | 3.65 | 1.33 | 0.0% | 24.50% | 7.6% | 1.15 | 1.55 |
| Wacha | STL | MIL | 275.0 | 3.73 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 53.3% | 19.90% | 7.8% | 0.85 | 1.45 |
| Nelson | MIL | STL | 278.1 | 3.91 | 4.39 | 1.31 | 0.0% | 18.70% | 9.2% | 0.97 | 1.65 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | KCR | 231.1 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 1.18 | 60.0% | 19.80% | 4.8% | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| Ventura | KCR | SEA | 248.0 | 4.39 | 4.15 | 1.35 | 44.4% | 20.50% | 9.1% | 0.91 | 1.67 |
| Cashner | SDP | LAD | 237.2 | 4.43 | 4.22 | 1.44 | 75.0% | 19.30% | 8.5% | 0.95 | 1.59 |
| Kazmir | LAD | SDP | 277.2 | 3.53 | 4.05 | 1.23 | 63.2% | 21.90% | 8.1% | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| Corbin | ARI | SFG | 186.0 | 4.31 | 4.01 | 1.37 | 0.0% | 19.10% | 6.7% | 1.26 | 1.77 |
| Samardzija | SFG | ARI | 325.0 | 4.62 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 18.20% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 1.11 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. CIN) – On perhaps the most loaded day of pitching this season, King Fern takes the throne. With Kershaw on the shelf, he might be the top pitcher in the game, at least from a fantasy perspective, and the Reds don’t pose much of a threat to disrupt his 12-game run of at least six strikeouts. Oddly enough, he might actually be a slight zig play today, as he is coming off his worst game of the season, coughing up nine runs (six earned) to the Braves of all teams. He still struck out eight batters against one walk, and despite the worst-case scenario seemingly taking place he still put up 11 points on DraftKings. He had cracked 27 DK fantasy points or more in eight of his previous nine starts.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. ATL) – Like Fern, Sale is also coming off a subpar (for him) start, having given up five tallies (four earned) against the Astros, but Sale lasted seven innings, struck out nine and picked up the win (he’s now 14-2), picking up more than 25 DK points despite the extra runs allowed. Today he gets to face a Braves team that is lacking in every department and which particularly struggles against left-handed pitchers (.280 wOBA, .634 OPS), making Sale the safest option among today’s long list of pitchers who have 40-point upside.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at NYM) – Sometimes you just get dealt an All-In hand three times in the same round. Strasburg came back strong from the disabled list, with 6.2 no-hit innings (but four walks) against the Reds in his last start, striking out five batters one his way to win no. 11 on his unblemished record. He has displayed a remarkable blend of stamina and pitch-count efficiency this season, tossing 6.0 or more innings in 14 of his 15 starts this season yet exceeding 110 pitches in just two of those starts. The Nats let him go 109 pitches in his last turn, so there likely is no cap or restriction to worry about. Stras faced the Mets in back-to-back ballgames back in late May, giving up a total of three runs across 12.2 innings with 21 strikeouts, and a similar performance could be lurking in today’s game.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at PIT) – It’s an odd storm, in the sense that the slate is loaded with some of the best pitchers in the game, all of whom seem to be carrying question marks due to recent performance or health. Arrieta is no exception. When looking at his season as a whole, Arrieta has been nearly as dominant as his Cy-winning campaign of 2015. However, he has been uncharacteristically wild this season, jumping his walk rate up from 5.5 to 9.6 percent this season, and Arrieta is coming off a pair of questionable starts against suspect offenses. Pitching on the road against the Mets and the Reds, Arrieta gave up nine runs across 10.1 innings, with 12 hits and seven walks allowed with eight strikeouts. His last great start was June 17 against these Pirates, striking out 11 batters over 6.0 innings with two hits and three walks allowed, but he hasn’t lasted more than 16 outs since.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. WAS) – Today’s matchup between Stras and Thor is must-see MLB, and though Synder ranks fifth among today’s pitchers, there is a very real possibility that he posts the best score of the day. His stock plummeted in light of the revelation about the bone spurs in his elbow, new that surrounded a disaster start against these Nats with 10 baserunners and five runs allowed over just 3.0 innings. He then silenced many of the critics, silencing the mighty Cubs with one run allowed over seven full frames, needing just 84 pitches to strike out eight batters in the process. There is a wide gamut of possibilities for Thor in today’s game, making him a volatile yet intriguing commodity on the DFS slate.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. NYY) – Kluber just continues to frustrate his managers in season-long and his owners in DFS. It seems like once or twice a month, he gets blasted, such as is the five runs and 11 baserunners (including four walks) that he gave up through just 3.1 innings in his last start. He was facing the Blue Jays, but it’s a squad that’s missing Jose Bautista, and owners have to hope that the latest fiasco was his blow-up of July. He has massive upside, such as the 44 DK points that he scored against the Rays two starts ago, but the risk of another implosion knocks him down a very formidable ladder of elite pitchers.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta | 0.232 | 1.61 | 0.232 | 2.24 | 0.263 | 0.733 | 0.247 | 2.52 | 0.185 | 0.01 | 26.9% |
| Liriano | 0.282 | 3.52 | 0.312 | 4.11 | 0.247 | 0.736 | 0.296 | 3.89 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 24.9% |
| Shoemaker | 0.312 | 4.69 | 0.332 | 3.91 | 0.262 | 0.775 | 0.301 | 4.13 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 22.0% |
| Jimenez | 0.338 | 5.22 | 0.339 | 4.49 | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.330 | 4.22 | 0.273 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Pelfrey | 0.376 | 5.11 | 0.333 | 3.98 | 0.259 | 0.782 | 0.339 | 4.48 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 11.5% |
| Happ | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.308 | 3.75 | 0.273 | 0.792 | 0.296 | 3.81 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Straily | 0.305 | 5.08 | 0.300 | 3.78 | 0.262 | 0.701 | 0.242 | 4.69 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Fernandez | 0.325 | 3.50 | 0.203 | 2.19 | 0.245 | 0.702 | 0.326 | 2.20 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 34.1% |
| Green | 0.254 | 0.737 | |||||||||
| Kluber | 0.304 | 3.95 | 0.239 | 3.05 | 0.248 | 0.730 | 0.285 | 2.91 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 26.9% |
| Archer | 0.290 | 3.75 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.273 | 0.771 | 0.304 | 3.36 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 28.3% |
| O’Sullivan | 0.458 | 8.23 | 0.343 | 4.94 | 0.241 | 0.702 | 0.322 | 5.98 | 0.318 | 0.00 | 11.0% |
| Strasburg | 0.255 | 2.63 | 0.303 | 3.86 | 0.241 | 0.710 | 0.307 | 2.83 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 30.6% |
| Syndergaard | 0.301 | 3.34 | 0.247 | 2.63 | 0.246 | 0.718 | 0.300 | 2.74 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 28.7% |
| Gibson | 0.318 | 4.66 | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.258 | 0.739 | 0.290 | 4.08 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Hamels | 0.283 | 2.00 | 0.299 | 3.66 | 0.255 | 0.732 | 0.286 | 3.78 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 24.2% |
| Wisler | 0.375 | 5.31 | 0.278 | 3.64 | 0.250 | 0.703 | 0.283 | 4.72 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 16.1% |
| Sale | 0.274 | 3.19 | 0.277 | 3.24 | 0.234 | 0.634 | 0.298 | 2.99 | 0.225 | 0.01 | 29.6% |
| Mengden | 0.324 | 3.65 | 0.236 | 2.03 | 0.251 | 0.753 | 0.265 | 3.83 | 0.216 | 0.06 | 24.3% |
| McHugh | 0.312 | 4.36 | 0.327 | 3.87 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.320 | 3.68 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 20.2% |
| Velasquez | 0.289 | 3.34 | 0.326 | 4.37 | 0.272 | 0.784 | 0.316 | 3.40 | 0.241 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Gray | 0.313 | 4.63 | 0.338 | 5.49 | 0.244 | 0.684 | 0.323 | 3.87 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 24.5% |
| Wacha | 0.287 | 3.35 | 0.311 | 4.02 | 0.255 | 0.713 | 0.287 | 3.76 | 0.242 | 0.00 | 19.9% |
| Nelson | 0.361 | 5.17 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.264 | 0.759 | 0.282 | 4.36 | 0.243 | 0.00 | 18.7% |
| Iwakuma | 0.332 | 3.77 | 0.293 | 3.99 | 0.269 | 0.732 | 0.287 | 4.13 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 19.8% |
| Ventura | 0.327 | 5.27 | 0.299 | 3.50 | 0.250 | 0.741 | 0.298 | 4.02 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Cashner | 0.362 | 4.98 | 0.317 | 3.97 | 0.244 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 4.05 | 0.271 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Kazmir | 0.308 | 4.26 | 0.300 | 3.26 | 0.253 | 0.717 | 0.276 | 4.09 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 21.9% |
| Corbin | 0.312 | 3.40 | 0.343 | 4.57 | 0.266 | 0.720 | 0.314 | 4.27 | 0.273 | 0.01 | 19.1% |
| Samardzija | 0.354 | 5.68 | 0.291 | 3.69 | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.296 | 4.13 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. MIN) – Seriously, all of the top starters are coming off rough outings. In Hamels case, it was 13 baserunners and five runs over 4.0 frames, which he gave up to these same Twins in Minnesota. This came after a month of June that included a 1.51 ERA and 4-0 record in six starts, including 35 strikeouts against 15 walks in 41.2 innings. The easy guess is to peg that he’ll perform somewhere in-between, but his penchant for staying in the game (seven full in five of his last seven starts) should help to buffer his DFS score.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at BAL) – Yes, even Shoemaker is coming off a clunker. He might seem the most obvious candidate based on season stats alone, but he entered his last start on a four-game run with a composite 1.32 ERA and 31:5 K:BB ratio over 27.1 innings. He has perhaps the best excuse for his own five-run outing, having faced the Red Sox in Fenway, but today he’ll have to contend with nearly as difficult a context as he heads to Camden Yards to take on the powerful Orioles. The gains are legit, but so is his opponent.
Chris Archer TB (at BOS) – Archer is the one top-end pitcher from today’s slate who is coming off an elite start, as he struck out 10 Tigers in his last turn with three hits and three walks, but zero runs allowed. Of course, he fell one out shy of the quality start, which was odd given that he had a seven-game string of pitching at least 6.0 innings and giving up three or more runs. The Rays routinely let Archer go over 110 pitches, so his ability to go deep into this game will be subject to his pitch-count efficiency, which will be made tougher by the elite offense of the Red Sox. Archer faced Boston two starts ago, striking out nine but walking four as the Sawx scored on him four times in the game.
Michael Wacha STL (at MIL)
Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. SD)
Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. ARI)
J.A. Happ TOR (vs. DET)
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at KC)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. STL)
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. OAK)
Matt Wisler ATL (at CHW)
Patrick Corbin ARI (at SF)
Andrew Cashner SD (at LAD)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. SEA)
Dan Straily CIN (at MIA)
Daniel Mengden OAK (at HOU)
Vincent Velasquez PHI (at COL) – The strikeouts might still be there, but he’ll need to rack up Ks in order to offset the hits and runs allowed in Colorado’s thin air.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. CHC) – Liriano has been a mess all season and is facing a perient Cubs offense that is primed to exploit his mistakes. Watch him pitch a gem.
Sean O’Sullivan BOS (vs. TB)
Chad Green NYY (at CLE)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jon Gray COL (vs. PHI)
Mike Pelfrey DET (at TOR)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at TEX)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. LAA)
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