Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 11th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-12 01:19:30

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Hendricks	CHC	PHI	232.2	3.52	3.74	1.18		18.7%	5.6%	0.70	1.72
Asher	PHI	CHC
Nelson	MIL	PIT	239.2	4.17	3.96	1.32		19.7%	7.9%	0.90	1.60
Morton	PIT	MIL	270	3.87	3.77	1.28	50.0%	18.2%	8.0%	0.60	2.58
Duffy	KCR	BAL	270.1	3.26	4.58	1.24	57.1%	17.0%	8.8%	0.83	0.88
Wright	BAL	KCR	34.2	5.19	4.80	1.44		14.8%	7.7%	1.30	1.02
Price	TOR	NYY	444.2	2.89	2.98	1.08	52.4%	26.0%	4.4%	0.83	1.08
Severino	NYY	TOR	35.1	2.04	3.90	1.19		23.5%	9.7%	1.02	1.42
Verlander	DET	CLE	305.2	4.18	4.15	1.30	35.0%	18.4%	6.8%	0.85	0.88
Anderson	CLE	DET	65.1	3.72	4.74	1.03		11.3%	5.5%	0.96	1.55
Lackey	STL	CIN	384	3.38	3.86	1.25	57.9%	18.9%	5.8%	0.96	1.30
Lorenzen	CIN	STL	100.2	5.54	5.19	1.65		15.8%	12.0%	1.43	1.23
Gonzalez	WAS	MIA	306.1	3.76	3.65	1.32	46.7%	23.1%	8.7%	0.50	1.58
Hand	MIA	WAS	194	4.73	4.22	1.38	33.3%	15.1%	7.1%	0.79	1.61
Miley	BOS	TBR	370	4.38	3.89	1.38	33.3%	19.7%	8.1%	0.90	1.72
Archer	TBR	BOS	382	3.11	3.31	1.17	55.0%	25.5%	7.7%	0.68	1.43
Matz	NYM	ATL	19	1.89	3.57	0.95		27.4%	9.6%	1.42	0.85
Wisler	ATL	NYM	74.1	5.81	5.15	1.61		14.2%	9.1%	1.45	0.83
Chavez	OAK	TEX	297	3.82	3.83	1.33	52.6%	21.0%	7.6%	1.06	1.21
Lewis	TEX	OAK	345.1	4.93	4.32	1.39	11.8%	17.1%	5.8%	1.28	0.76
Santana	MIN	CHW	269	4.22	3.86	1.33	38.9%	20.7%	7.7%	0.90	1.21
Johnson	CHW	MIN	29.2	6.07	4.92	1.58	20.0%	15.9%	11.4%	1.21	1.11
Wood	LAD	ARI	333	3.14	3.70	1.26	58.3%	21.2%	7.3%	0.73	1.47
Ray	ARI	LAD	130.1	4.70	4.20	1.45	33.3%	20.0%	8.6%	0.83	1.04
Keuchel	HOU	LAA	400.2	2.61	2.94	1.08	50.0%	20.8%	5.8%	0.54	3.38
Weaver	LAA	HOU	345	4.04	4.45	1.22	52.4%	16.5%	6.2%	1.20	0.72
Bettis	COL	SEA	115.2	5.84	4.27	1.60		16.5%	8.1%	1.17	1.71
Iwakuma	SEA	COL	275	3.70	3.17	1.06	60.0%	21.1%	3.7%	1.15	1.71
Cashner	SDP	SFG	285.1	3.44	3.87	1.28	75.0%	19.2%	6.7%	0.79	1.52
Peavy	SFG	SDP	282.1	3.92	4.18	1.27	42.1%	18.2%	7.1%	1.05	0.91

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at LAA) – He’s done it. Dallas Keuchel has broken the All-in barrier, and he’s done it on a day where the other elite arms are tied up with formidable opponents, leaving the Houston lefty all alone in the All-in room. And he just keeps getting better, recently adding strikeouts to the list of things that he does well, including a dozen K’s in his last start. Keuchel has punched out eight or more hitters in five of his last seven starts, a stretch that includes a 2.17 ERA and 53 K’s against 10 walks in 49.7 innings, and he has spiked double-digit whiffs four different times this season. He personifies the new-look Astros, leading a revolution that will be televised.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Archer TB (vs. BOS) – Archer has endured a bit of a bumpy road recently, coughing up four or more earnies in three of his last five starts, and his lack of pitch efficiency has kept him under 20 outs in five of his last six. Archer has also punched out double-digits in three of those six, including a one-hit shutout of the Astros on August 20, exemplifying the extreme poles of the performance spectrum from one start to the next (the previous game saw eight runners cross the plate on his watch). The right-hander faces a Boston ballclub that has been cranking along at full capacity as we head down the stretch of a lost season.

David Price TOR (at NYY) – The powerhouse matchup of Blue Jays versus Yankees has taken on a new look with Price at the helm, but there are several question marks surrounding this matchup. His opponent on the bump is a young upstart, the Yankee offense is second only to that of the Jays, and though Price has pitched well against the Yanks in two starts as a Jay (14.3 innings, 2.51 ERA with 17 K) he also endured his worst start of the season against New York – eight runs and 13 baserunners without escaping the third inning. It’s not encouraging that the Yankees knocked another 11 hits off of Price the last time that they faced off.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. COL) – The Rockies started the season by knocking around the horsehide regardless of altitude, but after a full summer of accumulating stats they’ve fallen back into familiar territory, with a meager .287 wOBA and 666 OPS when batting away from Coors Field. The Rox also have an escalated K rate of 23.9 percent on the road, and Iwakuma will look to take advantage with his disappearing splitter. He has been hit or miss in a dozen starts since returning from the DL in early July, allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his 12 turns but getting knocked around for five or more tallies in three of the other contests.

Steven Matz NYM (at ATL) – We have an interesting blend in the Raise department today, with two aces against top-tier offenses, a veteran looking to take advantage of a high-altitude team playing at sea level and a rookie making his fourth career start, drawing the Braves and their league-worst offense (.295 wOBA and 671 OPS both rank last). He pitched well in his first start back from the disabled list, allowing two runs to the Marlins with a half-dozen strikeouts, but he only threw 81 pitches before exiting partway through the sixth inning, so the Mets (who have been hyper-focused on workload limits) might take things easy with the young southpaw and limit his pitch count.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Hendricks	0.313	3.05	0.281	3.90	0.250	0.686	0.292	3.45	0.248	88.73	18.7%
Asher	0.306	5.40	0.554	16.62	0.244	0.729
Nelson	0.368	5.38	0.277	3.22	0.261	0.722	0.302	4.01	0.254	89.81	19.7%
Morton	0.326	4.38	0.295	3.39	0.262	0.722	0.295	3.80	0.247	93.73	18.2%
Duffy	0.221	1.89	0.322	3.67	0.250	0.687	0.266	4.17	0.234	84.47	17.0%
Wright	0.407	5.74	0.291	4.74	0.272	0.744	0.300	5.16	0.275	74.88	14.8%
Price	0.291	2.68	0.276	2.96	0.261	0.777	0.298	2.82	0.234	108.19	26.0%
Severino	0.324	1.83	0.230	2.30	0.262	0.775	0.261	3.97	0.215	96.83	23.5%
Verlander	0.294	3.22	0.347	5.48	0.251	0.718	0.301	3.74	0.258	106.19	18.4%
Anderson	0.303	5.02	0.251	2.70	0.268	0.739	0.224	4.34	0.22	82.82	11.3%
Lackey	0.317	3.11	0.303	3.62	0.251	0.709	0.299	3.71	0.257	97.42	18.9%
Lorenzen	0.430	6.58	0.329	4.87	0.263	0.731	0.308	5.60	0.28	85.10	15.8%
Gonzalez	0.287	3.67	0.310	3.79	0.274	0.740	0.319	3.08	0.248	96.13	23.1%
Hand	0.257	3.60	0.357	5.24	0.260	0.744	0.307	3.98	0.272	47.70	15.1%
Miley	0.301	4.70	0.331	4.28	0.265	0.769	0.312	3.85	0.263	97.98	19.7%
Archer	0.270	2.90	0.287	3.38	0.265	0.737	0.292	3.06	0.225	100.25	25.5%
Matz	0.256	0.00	0.262	2.40	0.232	0.644	0.190	4.36	0.169	97.33	27.4%
Wisler	0.449	6.17	0.305	5.49	0.246	0.707	0.316	5.36	0.293	84.40	14.2%
Chavez	0.327	3.82	0.298	3.82	0.260	0.738	0.307	3.92	0.258	80.02	21.0%
Lewis	0.349	4.70	0.337	5.20	0.253	0.706	0.315	4.40	0.281	96.82	17.1%
Santana	0.343	4.73	0.304	3.67	0.256	0.706	0.314	3.74	0.261	96.02	20.7%
Johnson	0.458	7.11	0.268	5.29	0.243	0.692	0.311	5.19	0.278	90.83	15.9%
Wood	0.272	2.49	0.314	3.34	0.262	0.729	0.309	3.43	0.253	83.90	21.2%
Ray	0.334	3.79	0.353	5.04	0.268	0.766	0.330	3.86	0.272	85.93	20.0%
Keuchel	0.223	2.31	0.283	2.69	0.229	0.655	0.280	3.01	0.23	104.75	20.8%
Weaver	0.331	4.19	0.288	3.86	0.243	0.727	0.269	4.41	0.246	97.29	16.5%
Bettis	0.338	5.14	0.405	6.66	0.241	0.718	0.334	4.52	0.295	53.76	16.5%
Iwakuma	0.309	3.51	0.264	3.89	0.273	0.781	0.277	3.58	0.24	91.65	21.1%
Cashner	0.342	4.50	0.276	2.55	0.267	0.739	0.299	3.58	0.253	97.65	19.2%
Peavy	0.330	4.45	0.318	3.42	0.246	0.694	0.288	4.13	0.253	98.37	18.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Justin Verlander DET (at CLE) – The right-hander pitched like it was 2012 throughout the month of August, and he has started September with a couple of solid turns that were light on strikeouts (four apiece). The last of those starts was against the Indians, a team that he had previously seen in his first outing of the year (which was in June) and whom he draws in consecutive starts as the schedule draws to a close. The old school velocity hasn’t returned but he hasn’t continued to lose velo, either, and the onus is now on Verlander to improve his pitch command in order to compensate for the loss of stuff.

John Lackey STL (at CIN) – Lackey has been a safe but unexciting option for much of the season, painting the picture of a cash game savant who is ill-suited for GPP action. Case in point: over his last seven starts, Lackey has a 3.28 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 46.7 innings pitched, allowing just 13 walks but 49 hits over that stretch.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at MIA) – Just when it looked like Gio was righting the ship, making up for nearly three months’ worth of spotty performance with an excellent run through July, he went ahead and got knocked around for most of August to put him right back on the career-worst track. Gio started September off well, striking out a season-high ten batters, but the fact that those batters were wearing Braves uniforms effectively puts a damper on the performance (he also had four walks that day). Tonight he draws a Marlins club that is only a small step up from Atlanta in terms of offense, which should allow for a buffer in case Gonzalez’s pitch command is not up to snuff.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PIT) – Nelson has heavy platoon splits that will elevate Pittsburgh lefties such as Gregory Polanco and Pedro Alvarez in addition to switch-hitter Neil Walker, who has had much more success in his career when hitting from the left side of the plate. Nelson’s control abandoned him three starts ago as he walked eight of the 21 Indians that he faced that day in Cleveland, though he rebounded in his next start with seven innings of one-run, zero-walk baseball at home against these Pirates. Of course he gave up five runs and nine hits to the Reds the next time around, leaving open the question of which version of Nelson will show up tonight in Pittsburgh.

Luis Severino NYY (vs. TOR) – Severino pitched well against Toronto when he faced them on Aug 16th at the Rogers Centre, tossing a baseline quality start against the top offense in all the land, punching out nine batters along the way to provide excellent value to his fantasy managers. He gets them in Yankee Stadium this time, where the rookie has a 1.55 ERA in three starts. The kid is due to take a beating at some point, particularly given his shaky pitch command, and the Jays are well-poised to jump on any opportunity. The Yanks have been very predictable with his workload from an innings standpoint, as Severino registered exactly 18 outs in four consecutive turns until he set a career high in most recent outing… with 19 outs.

Andrew Cashner SD (at SF)

Jesse Chavez OAK (at TEX)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. SD)

Alex Wood LAD (at ARI)

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. HOU)

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. LAD)

Danny Duffy KC (at BAL)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at PHI)

Wade Miley BOS (at TB)

Charlie Morton PIT (vs. MIL)

Michael Lorenzen CIN (vs. STL)

Colby Lewis TEX (vs. OAK)