Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, July 16th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-17 03:30:48

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Darvish	TEX	CHC	15.2	2.87	3.43	1.15	55.6%	29.7%	9.4%	0.57	1.50
Hammel	CHC	TEX	262	3.64	3.78	1.16	47.4%	22.6%	6.4%	1.24	1.07
Rodriguez	BOS	NYY	151	4.77	4.40	1.38		18.1%	7.4%	1.31	1.11
Sabathia	NYY	BOS	244	4.24	4.26	1.38	25.0%	18.8%	7.6%	1.18	1.38
Dickey	TOR	OAK	317	4.00	4.77	1.24	47.6%	14.9%	7.3%	1.25	1.20
Gray	OAK	TOR	292.2	3.51	3.96	1.19	60.0%	19.6%	7.4%	0.89	1.79
McCullers	HOU	SEA	171.2	3.41	3.72	1.32		25.4%	9.9%	0.58	1.71
Iwakuma	SEA	HOU	231.1	3.89	3.87	1.18	60.0%	19.8%	4.8%	1.36	1.29
Moore	TBR	BAL	159.1	4.97	4.32	1.41		19.8%	7.4%	1.41	0.96
Verrett	NYM	PHI	94	3.83	4.49	1.24		18.3%	9.5%	1.34	1.18
Eickhoff	PHI	NYM	147	3.12	3.89	1.17		21.9%	6.1%	1.04	1.16
Cole	PIT	WAS	276.1	2.64	3.51	1.15	28.6%	22.9%	5.7%	0.46	1.55
Roark	WAS	PIT	218.1	3.67	4.04	1.27	52.6%	17.9%	6.6%	0.99	1.79
Duffy	KCR	DET	212	3.74	4.08	1.27	57.1%	21.3%	7.8%	1.10	0.95
Pelfrey	DET	KCR	250.2	4.52	4.81	1.57		11.5%	7.0%	0.86	1.92
Bauer	CLE	MIN	271.1	4.01	4.15	1.26	38.5%	22.6%	9.9%	1.00	1.15
Duffey	MIN	CLE	131.2	4.51	3.92	1.37		19.8%	6.0%	1.23	1.63
Bettis	COL	ATL	210.1	4.96	4.11	1.46		18.4%	7.1%	0.98	1.84
Foltynewicz	ATL	COL	123	5.12	4.30	1.52		19.4%	7.1%	1.76	0.84
Nelson	MIL	CIN	278.1	3.91	4.39	1.31		18.7%	9.2%	0.97	1.65
Lamb	CIN	MIL	108.1	5.15	4.37	1.50		20.8%	9.2%	1.41	1.07
Koehler	MIA	STL	274.1	4.20	4.79	1.43	52.6%	17.7%	10.5%	0.92	1.31
Wainwright	STL	MIA	131.1	4.04	4.20	1.29	84.2%	17.7%	5.8%	0.55	1.61
McCarthy	LAD	ARI	23	5.87	2.61	1.22	35.0%	30.9%	4.3%	3.52	0.96
Bradley	ARI	LAD	87.2	5.03	4.71	1.48		19.7%	12.2%	1.13	1.75
Samardzija	SFG	SDP	325	4.62	4.18	1.26	60.0%	18.2%	5.4%	1.19	1.11
Perdomo	SDP	SFG	53	8.49	4.19	2.06		17.9%	9.7%	1.70	2.63
Shields	CWS	LAA	290	4.50	4.09	1.44	42.9%	22.8%	9.7%	1.49	1.31
Shoemaker	LAA	CWS	222.2	4.32	3.81	1.26	44.4%	22.0%	5.7%	1.41	0.95

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

It’s a weird day on the pitcher breakdown. There isn’t an All-In pitcher on the slate and not one of the four Raise candidates would have ranked within such a lofty vicinity on a different day this season. The big names are being anchored by injury, the low-strikeout options have peppered the landscape, and the two biggest names on board started the season in the bullpen. Giddy up!

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at MIN) – Call me a believer in the Bauer renaissance. He has simplified his approach to emphasize his strengths and stabilize his weaknesses, the result being fewer strikeouts than had been associated with the Bauer name but also fewer walks, hits, homers and runs allowed. He has ripped a full run off of his ERA from the previous two years and his star shines even brighter when looking at the numbers since he joined the rotation, including a 3.11 ERA with 77 strikeouts over 89.2 innings of work during that span. He faces a hot opponent today, as the Twins have scored 78 runs over their last ten games including three games of double-digit tallies over that stretch.

Danny Duffy KC (at DET) – Duffy is the costliest pitcher on the night slate over at DraftKings, as he’s the only pitcher whose price tag clears $10k (he costs $11000 against the cap). As shocking as it sounds, he just might be worth top billing, particularly given the lack of high-strikeout options from pitchers that have been there before. Duffy has struck out seven or more batters in six of his last seven starts, piling up 54 strikeouts over 45.0 innings pitched during that stretch. Duffy has only been fully unleashed for the last handful of turns, as he was building his pitch count while transitioning from the bullpen and was kept under 90 pitches until four starts ago. Duffy is the pitcher du jour on a thin slate of arms, and the lack of options combined with the paucity of K-heavy options will likely funnel a healthy portion of the ownership in his direction.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. NYM) – Entering his last start of the first half, Eickhoff had collected an impressive resume of solid outings, with a 2.25 ERA over his previous seven starts along with a 41:15 K:BB ratio in 44.0 innings. Then the thin air of Colorado sucked the wind out of his sails, as Eickhoff coughed up eight earned runs at altitude to tack 0.50 onto his ERA for the season. Giving him a mulligan for the Rockie start, Eickhoff has only given up more than four runs in one other starts this season, that being a seven-run start in April, and on top of the stable run prevention Eickhoff has also been known to spike decent strikeout totals on the occasions when he stays in the game, as the right-hander has completed the seventh inning in five of his starts this season and finished with a K-count of eight or higher in four of those games.

Lance McCullers HOU (at SEA) – McCullers has taken the impressive K-per-inning numbers of last season and turned it up a notch, with 72 strikeouts though his first 57.0 innings of 2016 for a ridiculous 11.4 K/9. He has also been giving out walks like candy on Halloween, surrendering 5.4 BB/9 to go along with more than a hit per inning for an ugly 1.65 WHIP, and the only thing keeping his ERA in check seems to be a resistance to homers (two bombs allowed in ten starts). If his anti-homer vaccination runs out before McCullers is able to calm the walk rate, then he could endure some rough patches as he battles to regain his form. The strikeout potential is massive and fuels Raise-worthy upside, but he also carries significant risk against a powerful Mariners ballclub that has the second-most home runs in the American League.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Darvish					0.247	0.740	0.289	2.72	0.207	0.10	29.7%
Hammel	0.327	3.69	0.288	3.61	0.258	0.739	0.274	3.99	0.233	0.00	22.6%
Rodriguez	0.354	5.13	0.322	4.67	0.254	0.728	0.295	4.51	0.262	0.01	18.1%
Sabathia	0.260	4.31	0.343	4.22	0.272	0.758	0.308	4.36	0.267	0.00	18.8%
Dickey	0.315	3.97	0.320	4.03	0.250	0.701	0.260	4.74	0.245	0.00	14.9%
Gray	0.274	2.74	0.300	4.28	0.259	0.782	0.272	3.77	0.233	0.00	19.6%
McCullers	0.275	3.31	0.325	3.50	0.250	0.741	0.314	3.17	0.237	0.01	25.4%
Iwakuma	0.332	3.77	0.293	3.99	0.251	0.753	0.287	4.13	0.255	0.01	19.8%
Tillman	0.321	3.73	0.331	5.31	0.241	0.702	0.289	4.41	0.253	0.00	18.4%
Moore	0.317	5.83	0.348	4.62	0.243	0.690	0.316	4.60	0.275	0.00	19.8%
Verrett	0.301	3.04	0.325	4.63	0.244	0.684	0.250	4.85	0.229	0.00	18.3%
Eickhoff	0.334	3.88	0.269	2.44	0.241	0.710	0.285	3.70	0.24	0.01	21.9%
Cole	0.282	2.26	0.279	2.99	0.246	0.718	0.309	2.77	0.242	0.01	22.9%
Roark	0.319	3.11	0.305	4.18	0.263	0.733	0.296	4.05	0.259	0.00	17.9%
Duffy	0.238	2.00	0.336	4.20	0.273	0.792	0.294	4.13	0.248	0.00	21.3%
Pelfrey	0.376	5.11	0.333	3.98	0.269	0.732	0.339	4.48	0.312	0.00	11.5%
Bauer	0.301	3.81	0.302	4.21	0.243	0.699	0.275	4.03	0.227	0.00	22.6%
Duffey	0.303	2.59	0.358	6.26	0.254	0.737	0.319	4.05	0.275	0.01	19.8%
Bettis	0.321	4.57	0.360	5.33	0.252	0.676	0.329	4.00	0.282	0.00	18.4%
Foltynewicz	0.409	5.89	0.336	4.50	0.272	0.784	0.330	5.06	0.292	0.00	19.4%
Nelson	0.361	5.17	0.275	2.91	0.245	0.702	0.282	4.36	0.243	0.00	18.7%
Lamb	0.395	6.35	0.345	4.83	0.235	0.684	0.326	4.66	0.277	0.00	20.8%
Koehler	0.342	4.54	0.308	3.87	0.264	0.759	0.294	4.42	0.254	0.00	17.7%
Wainwright	0.311	4.55	0.306	3.67	0.262	0.701	0.317	3.29	0.268	0.01	17.7%
McCarthy	0.297	2.13	0.469	10.45	0.265	0.740	0.288	6.22	0.267	0.00	30.9%
Bradley	0.337	3.95	0.326	6.09	0.244	0.723	0.288	4.73	0.246	0.00	19.7%
Samardzija	0.354	5.68	0.291	3.69	0.239	0.679	0.296	4.13	0.263	0.00	18.2%
Perdomo	0.408	9.24	0.414	7.81	0.266	0.742	0.403	5.45	0.347	0.00	17.9%
Shields	0.378	4.61	0.318	4.40	0.256	0.720	0.313	4.69	0.263	0.00	22.8%
Shoemaker	0.312	4.69	0.332	3.91	0.250	0.703	0.301	4.13	0.259	0.01	22.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at WAS) – On name value alone, Cole would rank with Darvish at the top of today’s scrapheap of pitchers, but there are several dents in his particular suit of armor that leak trepidation in rostering the right-hander today. For starters, any pitcher coming off a rehab assignment is expected to be facing a muted workload, so Cole will probably have to be very efficient with his pitch count in order to get many innings under his belt. Second, there’s the fact the Cole hasn’t been that good even when healthy this season. The strikeouts are way down at a career-low 19.0 percent, following back-to-back years in excess of 24.0 percent, with a walk rate that has jumped back to 2014 levels. He was unscored upon through 8.0 innings of rehab work across two starts, with 12 strikeouts and no walks against four hits allowed, creeping his pitch count up to 70 throws in his last outing, so he’ll likely be restrained to about 90 pitches in tonight’s tilt.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. MIA) – Waino is coming off his best start of the year, which really is a nice way of saying that he is very unlikely to outscore the 32-point effort of last week (DraftKings). It was his largest fantasy output of the season by seven points, as it took the right-hander 18 starts to crack the 30-point barrier. He is actually on an excellent run, with quality starts in six of his last seven turns as he shakes off the cobwebs that slowed him down earlier in the campaign. The last two starts prior to the All-Star break were particularly effective, as Waino allowed one run over 14.0 combined innings with 14 strikeouts against three walks over the two turns.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. HOU) – It’s not sexy, but it gets the job done. Iwakuma has kept opponents to five or fewer runs in all 18 of his starts so far this season, but he has given up multiple runs in 16 of those starts, as opponents have knocked him around to the tune of 126 hits in 114.1 innings and a 4.25 ERA this season. The value here is in stamina more than run prevention, as Iwakuma has gone 6.0 or more innings in 14 of his 18 starts this season, but despite stockpiling the frames his strikeouts remain grounded, never topping eight Ks in a game and whiffing just 23 batters in his last six starts and 38.0 innings pitched.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at SD) – Samardzija cruised through most of May, and his early-season success painted the picture of last season as being an anomaly for the right-hander, but the past six weeks have been a painful reminder of the massive run-counts that the Shark gave up last season with the White Sox. Samardzija has given up four or more runs in six of his last nine turns, including three separate games of six runs allowed in each. The last time that he faced the Padres was at the end of the May stretch, with back-to-back starts that totaled 14.2 innings with just two total runs allowed, with 15 strikeouts against three walks. Perhaps San Diego is just what the doctor ordered to help get Samardzija back on track, but another rough outing could indicate that his recent struggles extend deeper than his opponents.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CIN)

Chris Tillman BAL (at TB)

Brandon McCarthy LAD (at ARI)

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. LAD) – Bradley has been a frustrating prospect whose development has not gone as smoothly as one would like, and in the modern age of instant gratification his need for more development time essentially wrote Bradley off in the minds of many. The struggles continued through his first several games of this season, including a 5.66 ERA over his first half-dozen starts, but in his last five games the right-hander has turned things around somewhat, with a 3.41 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 29.0 frames, completing the sixth inning in four of those five starts. It’s a small step forward but one that deserves the attention of fantasy owners..

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PIT)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at OAK) – Dickey’s been a punching bag for the past few years, a pitcher worth avoiding completely on DFS scale given the unpredictability of knuckleballers and his seemingly lost ability to fool batters with his butterfly pitch. But the 41-year-old has been a solid source of relatively-painless innings for the past six weeks, with a 3.02 ERA over his last eight starts covering more than 50 innings of work. The devil’s in the details, however, as even during this good stretch Dickey has been hammered for 11 home runs while only mustering 35 strikeouts, a recipe that is sure to lead to much larger numbers on the scoreboard if he can’t keep the ball in the yard..

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. TOR) – Things can get dicey in a hurry when a high-contact pitcher starts to lose his mojo. The K and walk rates may not reveal that there is a problem, but the frequency of hard-hit baseballs indicates that opposing hitters are unintimidated by his stuff. Gray appeared to be solving his early-season issues as he worked through a solid month of June, but his first turn of July was marred by seven earned runs over 6.0 innings and was followed by a four-walk outing against the Twins just before the break. Now he faces the Blue Jays and their powerful lineup, which tends to punish pitchers for mistakes that are made within the strike zone. You’ve been warned.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. CHW)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. COL)

Chad Bettis COL (at ATL)

Matt Moore TB (vs. BAL)

James Shields CHW (at LAA)

Logan Verrett NYM (at PHI)

Tom Koehler MIA (at STL)

Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. KC)