Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 29th

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Estrada TOR BAL 313.1 3.16 4.46 1.04 27.8% 20.2% 8.0% 1.21 0.66
Miley BAL TOR 322.2 4.91 4.35 1.39 33.3% 17.5% 7.4% 1.06 1.54
Roark WAS PHI 274.1 3.48 4.20 1.22 52.6% 17.8% 6.8% 0.98 1.60
Thompson PHI WAS 14.1 8.79 5.42 1.60 16.2% 13.2% 1.88 1.64
Shields CWS DET 339.1 4.75 4.35 1.45 42.9% 20.8% 9.5% 1.64 1.21
Boyd DET CWS 126 5.57 4.61 1.39 18.5% 8.0% 2.00 0.77
Fernandez MIA NYM 206.1 3.01 2.69 1.13 75.0% 33.8% 6.7% 0.65 1.36
Montero NYM MIA 12.1 5.84 3.39 1.62 25.0% 27.6% 10.3% 0.00 1.45
Bauer CLE MIN 315.1 4.25 4.23 1.30 38.5% 22.3% 10.0% 1.08 1.19
Andriese TBR BOS 156.2 3.85 3.99 1.21 19.0% 5.9% 1.09 1.30
Porcello BOS TBR 337 4.09 3.79 1.20 55.6% 20.4% 4.7% 1.18 1.35
Martinez STL MIL 324 3.11 3.74 1.24 22.4% 8.4% 0.67 2.15
Davies MIL STL 161 4.08 4.24 1.25 18.6% 6.9% 0.95 1.56
Brault PIT CHC 10 3.60 5.20 1.60 17.8% 11.1% 0.90 0.77
Arrieta CHC PIT 382.2 2.16 3.21 0.94 50.0% 26.0% 7.2% 0.49 2.18
Iwakuma SEA TEX 286.2 3.67 3.97 1.18 60.0% 19.4% 4.7% 1.26 1.24
Darvish TEX SEA 59 2.75 2.91 1.07 55.6% 31.8% 5.9% 1.37 1.00
Manaea OAK HOU 110.1 4.73 4.18 1.31 19.7% 6.0% 1.47 1.18
Musgrove HOU OAK 23.2 4.18 3.33 1.10 24.5% 3.2% 1.52 1.08
Pineda NYY KCR 297 4.61 3.26 1.28 75.0% 24.7% 4.7% 1.27 1.52
Gee KCR NYY 133.1 4.93 4.38 1.56 50.0% 17.0% 6.8% 1.62 1.31
Maeda LAD COL 136.2 3.29 3.64 1.07 25.2% 6.4% 1.12 1.11
Gray COL LAD 167.1 4.89 3.82 1.34 24.0% 7.9% 1.02 1.40
Straily CIN LAA 162 3.89 4.64 1.17 14.3% 19.7% 8.8% 1.22 0.75
Shoemaker LAA CIN 281 4.29 3.94 1.26 44.4% 20.9% 5.4% 1.31 0.98

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at NYM) – He hasn’t struck out double-digit batters since just after the All-Star break, which is the type of sentence that is pointless with just about every other pitcher on the planet but carries at least a little weight when talking about Fern. Despite the lack of an single-game spikes, Fern has still struck out 45 batters over his last 35.0 innings covering six starts, punching out at least six batters in each turn. He has also been touched up at time during that stretch, including two separate games of five earned runs apiece, each of which last five or fewer innings, but his relative vulnerability is revealed by the 40 hits that he has allowed over those 35 frames. He is coming off his best start in the past month-plus, blanking the Royals for seven innings with nine strikeouts against eight baserunners on the day, scoring 32.95 points on DraftKings, and that is the type of upside that makes it worth carrying his heavy salary.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. SEA) – The gloves are off. Darvish has thrown 99 or more pitches in each of his last three starts, and he’s cleared 6.0 or more innings in seven straight turns, all of them quality starts. He actually gave up five runs in his last outing, but two of the tallies were unearned to keep Darvish in QS territory. Of more concern are the five walks that he allowed to the Reds that day, a number that exceeded his number of free passes for the previous six starts combined. Walks have long been an issue for Darvish, but his ability to harness the walks so far this season has been a welcome addition to the right-hander’s statline. He did keep the ball in the park, after giving up six homers over his previous four games, but the copious amount of walks allowed crooked numbers on the scoreboard despite the mere four hits allowed.He’s only struck out five batters in each of two of his last three turns, and upping the K count will be a key facet of tonight’s fantasy point total.

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. PIT) – The extra walks that have infiltrated Arrieta’s stat-line this season refuse to go away, and two starts ago he got the win despite giving up five runs and a ridiculous seven walks in 5.2 innings against the Brewers. He had a much better line in his last start, blanking the Padres over eight innings, and though he was able to reign in the walks a bit, he still had more free passes on his record (three) than hits allowed (two). The strikeouts have also disappeared, as he’s whiffed six or fewer hitters in six consecutive starts and 10 of his last 11.He exceeded a half-dozen Ks seven times in his first 14 starts, but lately that has been the cap on his K-count, and a pitcher with too many walks and not enough strikeouts is putting a lot of weight on his hit and homer rates to support his run prevention; the latter has still been strong, with two or fewer runs allowed in four of his last five starts, but one wonder how long he can keep putting zeroes on the scoreboard if his peripherals remain a problem.

Carlos Martinez STL (at MIL) – Martinez has been extremely efficient lately. Two starts ago, he made it through seven full innings on just 79 pitches, and in his last start the right-hander went 8.0 innings deep on 97 throws. He has given up one earned run in each of those games, and in the start prior he tossed a baseline quality start against the rival Cubs. Strikeouts are typically not a big part of his repertoire, as Martinez has struck out just five hitters or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and the last time that he exceeded seven Ks in a contest was in his last start prior to the All-Star break. That game featured a massive spike to 11 strikeouts, however, and it came against these Brewers the last time that he faced the crew from Milwaukee, so there is an outside chance – especially given the Brewers heavy strikeout tendencies – of another K spike for CarMart in tonight’s game.

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB) – Porcello is having a career season, and in particular he has shown an exceptional ability to go deep into ballgames recently. Porcello has tossed at least 7.0 frames in six straight starts, three of which went eight innings or longer, and he has allowed three or fewer runs in each of those six outings. He’s walked just six batters over that six-game stretch (in 46.2 innings), and though his 37 strikeouts over that stretch appear modest at first glance, they represent a big upgrade over his previous few months. He has struck out exactly eight hitters in four of his last six games, a number that he reached (but never exceeded) just once over his previous 16 starts. His last outing was against these Rays, and though he gave up nine hits in the contest, the blend of a deep outings and solid K count result in 21.85 points on DraftKings, a number that he actually exceeded in his previous six starts. He threw 123 pitches in that game, so the Red Sox might apply the brakes a bit earlier in today’s start, but that won’t necessarily stop Porcello from going another seven innings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Estrada 0.276 3.06 0.272 3.28 0.262 0.775 0.215 4.31 0.197 90.73 20.2%
Miley 0.297 4.16 0.344 5.14 0.269 0.794 0.310 4.20 0.272 0.00 17.5%
Roark 0.312 3.11 0.296 3.81 0.243 0.689 0.283 4.09 0.249 66.29 17.8%
Thompson 0.250 0.730 0.250 6.43 0.241 0.00 16.2%
Shields 0.377 4.47 0.332 5.00 0.267 0.743 0.303 5.07 0.266 0.00 20.8%
Boyd 0.389 7.50 0.346 4.97 0.248 0.680 0.284 5.56 0.267 0.00 18.5%
Fernandez 0.321 3.38 0.227 2.69 0.241 0.708 0.340 2.26 0.228 0.01 33.8%
Montero 0.262 0.705 0.389 2.00 0.269 0.00 27.6%
Santiago 0.306 3.17 0.333 4.62 0.270 0.744 0.262 5.03 0.236 95.39 20.3%
Bauer 0.313 4.13 0.304 4.37 0.248 0.715 0.279 4.19 0.232 89.36 22.3%
Andriese 0.302 3.93 0.292 3.78 0.273 0.774 0.283 3.93 0.248 52.68 19.0%
Porcello 0.311 3.83 0.317 4.41 0.245 0.719 0.301 3.92 0.259 99.89 20.4%
Martinez 0.327 3.75 0.257 2.48 0.251 0.711 0.297 3.45 0.237 0.00 22.4%
Davies 0.316 3.04 0.299 4.97 0.261 0.760 0.290 3.91 0.251 92.00 18.6%
Brault 0.252 0.751 0.323 4.35 0.275 94.00 17.8%
Arrieta 0.226 1.87 0.245 2.44 0.259 0.725 0.241 2.74 0.185 0.00 26.0%
Iwakuma 0.311 3.44 0.302 3.88 0.260 0.745 0.287 4.00 0.254 92.60 19.4%
Darvish 0.260 3.14 0.308 2.37 0.250 0.738 0.288 3.32 0.219 0.03 31.8%
Manaea 0.231 2.28 0.355 5.40 0.248 0.756 0.302 4.44 0.267 0.00 19.7%
Musgrove 0.315 5.79 0.250 0.706 0.297 3.78 0.253 89.00 24.5%
Pineda 0.325 4.18 0.331 4.96 0.263 0.719 0.333 3.57 0.27 95.16 24.7%
Gee 0.389 5.46 0.333 4.43 0.249 0.731 0.335 4.99 0.302 0.00 17.0%
Maeda 0.294 2.92 0.261 3.60 0.271 0.782 0.269 3.67 0.22 93.13 25.2%
Gray 0.313 4.35 0.332 5.40 0.251 0.743 0.322 3.78 0.257 0.00 24.0%
Straily 0.309 4.60 0.284 3.23 0.255 0.717 0.241 4.52 0.216 87.43 19.7%
Shoemaker 0.304 4.40 0.341 4.15 0.250 0.711 0.304 4.08 0.262 88.73 20.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Tanner Roark WAS (at PHI) – Roark’s run prevention has been excellent this season, as he currently stands with a 2.99 ERA on the season, but his peripherals fail to support such an impressive line and the lack of strikeouts severely limit his DFS upside. Roark has walked multiple batters in each of his last seven starts but hasn’t struck out more than a half-dozen hitters in any of them, as he has a disappointing K:BB of 28:18 over that stretch, covering 43.2 innings. The 13 wins and sub-3.00 ERA are points in his favor when evaluating past performance, but his peripherals are likely a better indication of what to expect going forward, such that tonight’s lofty ranking has more to do with his weak opponent than a belief in a rebound.

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. MIN) – Bauer has ridden a rollercoaster of performance this season, and the past month has been particularly full of ups and downs. He started August with an eight-run disaster against the Twins that chased the right-hander before the third inning was finished, a game that included five walks and just one strikeout from the right-hander. He has gone at least six frames in each of the four games since, walking a firm two batters in each game, but the runs and strikeouts have been all over the place. The biggest shocker was the 13 strikeouts that he tallied against the Blue Jays two starts ago, and though Bauer has shown elite skills in the K category over stretches of the past, the fact that he punched out four or fewer hitters in each of the other five of his last six starts outlines how extreme of an outlier that game was. Consider that in that outing he struck out more batters (13) than in the other four starts of August combined (12 Ks in 21.2 innings).

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at TEX) – Iwakuma has put up some boring stat lines over his last three starts, giving up three runs in each game yet striking out three or fewer hitters in each contest, as well, and he’s done so against the low-ranking offenses of the A’s, Angels and Yankees. The lack of strikeouts has greatly tarnished his fantasy scores, as Iwakuma has scored between 8-12 points on DraftKings in each of the last three turns, yet he exceeded 31 points in each of his first two starts of the month, with back-to-back games of seven or more scoreless innings and seven or more innings while facing the robust offenses of the Red Sox and Tigers. The discrepancy among starts makes it tougher to project today’s performance against a tough Rangers’ lineup.

Joe Musgrove HOU (vs. OAK) – Musgrove was the talk of Houston just two weeks ago, as his first three starts featured a composite ERA of 1.47 with a 21:2 K:BB over 18.1 innings in the bigs, despite facing the intimidating lineups of the Blue Jays (twice) and Rangers. The schedule didn’t get any easier for the rookie as he traveled to Baltimore for his fourth start, and the Orioles gave him a rude awakening, tagging Musgrove for eight runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings. He finally got a slight reprieve in his last start, facing the Pirates in interleague action, but the result was again disappointing as Musgrove gave up five runs and eight hits over just four frames. All told, he has given up as many homers over the last two games (four) as he has strikeouts, as his stuff has been unable to miss bats, with dire consequences. He’ll get his easiest opponent yet in tonight’s start against the A’s, giving Musgrove the opportunity to get back on track.

Michael Pineda NYY (at KC)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. CIN)

Marco Estrada TOR (at BAL)

Dan Straily CIN (at LAA)

Kenta Maeda LAD (at COL)

Sean Manaea OAK (at HOU)

Jon Gray COL (vs. LAD)

Matt Boyd DET (vs. CHW)

Rafael Montero NYM (vs. MIA)

Hector Santiago MIN (at CLE)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. STL)

Steven Brault PIT (at CHC)

James Shields CHW (at DET)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Dillon Gee KC (vs. NYY)

Matt Andriese TB (at BOS)

Jake Thompson PHI (vs. WAS)

Wade Miley BAL (vs. TOR)

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About the Author

DougThorburn
Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn)

Doug Thorburn’s work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire, and he is also the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn’s expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball.