Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, May 16th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb | CIN | CLE | 59.2 | 5.13 | 3.78 | 1.49 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 1.36 | 0.83 | |
| Anderson | CLE | CIN | 119.2 | 4.06 | 4.71 | 1.24 | 13.0% | 5.9% | 1.28 | 1.32 | |
| Perez | ATL | PIT | 137 | 4.60 | 4.88 | 1.49 | 13.9% | 9.9% | 0.99 | 1.82 | |
| Niese | PIT | ATL | 216.2 | 4.40 | 4.34 | 1.44 | 41.2% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 1.25 | 2.04 |
| Porcello | BOS | KCR | 218.1 | 4.53 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 55.6% | 21.2% | 5.2% | 1.28 | 1.40 |
| Ventura | KCR | BOS | 200.1 | 4.18 | 4.12 | 1.35 | 44.4% | 21.1% | 10.0% | 0.81 | 1.73 |
| Conley | MIA | PHI | 103.1 | 3.75 | 3.94 | 1.27 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 0.87 | 1.03 | |
| Eickhoff | PHI | MIA | 91.2 | 3.44 | 3.61 | 1.12 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 0.98 | 1.10 | |
| Smyly | TBR | TOR | 111.1 | 3.31 | 3.09 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 28.8% | 6.3% | 1.46 | 0.75 |
| Happ | TOR | TBR | 220.1 | 3.27 | 3.97 | 1.24 | 30.8% | 19.9% | 6.4% | 0.82 | 1.24 |
| Berrios | MIN | DET | 14.1 | 6.28 | 3.78 | 1.74 | 28.8% | 12.1% | 2.51 | 0.80 | |
| Zimmermann | DET | MIN | 249.2 | 3.24 | 3.98 | 1.19 | 52.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| Pineda | NYY | ARI | 199.1 | 4.74 | 3.22 | 1.30 | 75.0% | 23.3% | 4.0% | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Ray | ARI | NYY | 163 | 3.81 | 4.06 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 22.5% | 9.6% | 0.77 | 1.25 |
| Holland | TEX | OAK | 92.2 | 5.34 | 4.72 | 1.39 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 1.36 | 1.01 | |
| Manaea | OAK | TEX | 12.2 | 11.37 | 4.42 | 2.05 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 2.84 | 1.77 | |
| Shoemaker | LAA | LAD | 160 | 5.17 | 4.19 | 1.36 | 44.4% | 19.2% | 6.7% | 1.69 | 0.91 |
| Maeda | LAD | LAA | 43 | 2.30 | 3.87 | 1.02 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 1.05 | 0.98 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
It’s a half-slate today with only nine games on the schedule, and one of them (Reds vs. Indians in the Battle of Ohio) has an early start such that only eight teams are eligible for most DFS contests. Not one of the 18 starters that are scheduled for today deserves a reach for all the chips, and in fact the list of raise-worthy pitchers is also short on a day that will have managers rolling the dice on volatile pitchers.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. MIN) – The Twins have one of the worst offenses in baseball no matter how you parse the data, whether looking at platoon splits, full-season or recent performance, this is a team with about a .300 wOBA and an OPS just south of .700, and they take an additional dive when on the road. Zimmermann has certainly been playing over his head in terms of run prevention, and the K ceiling is lower than most other pitchers, but he struck out seven batters the last time that he faced the strikeout-happy Twins and a similar total this time around isn’t out of the question.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. LAA) – Maeda has cooled off a bit in his last three starts after posting a 0.36 ERA over his first four, as since his gem in Colorado, the right-hander has posted a 5.09 ERA with a 15:7 K:BB ratio in 17.2 innings pitched, a stretch that has included four home runs allowed. Maeda was able to beat up on the NL West during his first stretch, but branching out to face the Marlins, Mets and Blue Jays had poor results. He stays west for tonight’s matchup, kicking off the Freeway Series with an interleague matchup against the Angels. He’s in a similar boat as Zimmermann, as a low-strikeout option whose success in run prevention in 2016 is not necessarily a predictable indicator for his rest-of-season performance. The two pitchers are also similar in that they have the baseline skills – stuff, mechanics – to encourage success despite modest peripherals, though expectations should be tempered.
Drew Smyly TB (at TOR) – Smyly has easily the highest strikeout upside of the pitchers available on today’s slate, a factor which sticks him into the raise category and has him listed as the most expensive pitcher today on DraftKings ($11,300). The problem is that he’s a lefty facing the Blue Jays in Rogers Centre. I know that the Jays haven’t been thumping this season like they did last – even Josh Donaldson has been slumping lately – but facing a fly-balling southpaw like Smyly in the friendly confines of home makes for a field full of land mines for Smyly to dodge in order to escape tonight’s outing unscathed. I don’t put it past Smyly to register 10 punchouts over 6.2 with 2 ER or something, but the downside is too significant to ignore. Given the odd shape of today’s pitching slate and that Smyly is coming off his worst start of the season (six earned runs and 10 hits over 5.0 innings at Seattle), I am very curious to see what Smyly’s ownership percentage looks like in today’s pool.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb | 0.425 | 7.43 | 0.336 | 4.47 | 0.261 | 0.719 | 0.352 | 4.16 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 24.9% |
| Anderson | 0.350 | 5.24 | 0.284 | 3.06 | 0.245 | 0.700 | 0.267 | 4.68 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 13.0% |
| Perez | 0.373 | 5.48 | 0.311 | 3.71 | 0.264 | 0.735 | 0.302 | 4.85 | 0.275 | 0.01 | 13.9% |
| Niese | 0.360 | 3.68 | 0.343 | 4.59 | 0.227 | 0.616 | 0.303 | 4.75 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Porcello | 0.330 | 4.34 | 0.327 | 4.78 | 0.265 | 0.728 | 0.317 | 4.02 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
| Ventura | 0.321 | 5.12 | 0.296 | 3.17 | 0.270 | 0.758 | 0.293 | 3.91 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Conley | 0.381 | 6.32 | 0.293 | 3.29 | 0.251 | 0.682 | 0.298 | 3.69 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Eickhoff | 0.371 | 5.18 | 0.218 | 1.98 | 0.259 | 0.697 | 0.279 | 3.40 | 0.232 | 0.02 | 22.7% |
| Smyly | 0.265 | 1.93 | 0.297 | 3.78 | 0.271 | 0.796 | 0.269 | 3.71 | 0.218 | 0.02 | 28.8% |
| Happ | 0.290 | 2.17 | 0.306 | 3.63 | 0.257 | 0.758 | 0.304 | 3.52 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 19.9% |
| Berrios | 0.267 | 0.734 | 0.382 | 5.94 | 0.298 | 0.00 | 28.8% | ||||
| Zimmermann | 0.322 | 3.49 | 0.269 | 2.99 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.294 | 3.69 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 18.8% |
| Pineda | 0.337 | 4.35 | 0.340 | 5.08 | 0.266 | 0.742 | 0.337 | 3.71 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Ray | 0.310 | 3.18 | 0.337 | 4.05 | 0.253 | 0.731 | 0.326 | 3.71 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 22.5% |
| Holland | 0.304 | 4.60 | 0.361 | 5.49 | 0.251 | 0.703 | 0.298 | 4.86 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 15.3% |
| Manaea | 0.258 | 0.739 | 0.405 | 7.03 | 0.375 | 0.00 | 16.1% | ||||
| Shoemaker | 0.328 | 5.86 | 0.354 | 4.38 | 0.244 | 0.723 | 0.294 | 4.84 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 19.2% |
| Maeda | 0.271 | 3.00 | 0.255 | 1.64 | 0.251 | 0.711 | 0.237 | 3.80 | 0.204 | 0.03 | 22.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Adam Conley MIA (at PHI) – Across two consecutive starts, Conley allowed just two hits and no runs through 13.0 innings, striking out 13 batters but allowing five walks along the way. The two starts prior each involved four earned runs allowed, and he got back into the four-spot groove in his last start, this time lasting just 4.0 innings against the Brewers (the team that he no-hit for 7.2 IP) with nine baserunners to go with the four earnies on Conley’s stat-line. The southpaw is a wild card, with K counts ranging from two in 5.2 innings (April 24 at SF) to nine punchouts over 6.0 frames (April 13 at NYM), but his ranking gets a big boost due to facing the weak lineup of the Phillies. With a lefty on the hill for Miami, it also means that Tommy Joseph will most likely get the start at first base (with Ryan Howard taking a seat); Joseph qualifies as a C/1B and can be had for just $2200 on DraftKings.
Rick Porcello BOS (at KC) – Porcello has been a revelation for the Red Sox so far this season, providing much-needed stability atop a shaky rotation whose one anchor – offseason cash cow David Price – is undergoing a mid-career crisis of sorts as he tries to fix his delivery. It’s a refreshing change of pace for a pitcher who was brought up at a young age and handed a significant workload, and who has continuously let optimistic managers down when a breakout is seemingly in the offing. Instead, the right-hander waited until nobody was looking and has been everything in 2016 that was expected of him four years prior. Porcello has tossed six consecutive quality starts, though his penchant to give up exactly three runs (four times this year) makes that sentence a bit misleading. He struck out 24 batters through his first three games (19.1 innings) but has failed to top a half-dozen Ks in any game since, and one of his two standout starts this year was against the lackluster offense of the Braves. Proceed with caution.
Jose Berrios MIN (at DET) – Berrios continues to be plagued by the same issue, with the vast majority of his pitches drifting arm-side of their targets, many of which end up out of the zone with very few finishing on the left side of the plate. His pitches have good arm-side movement, which adds to the complication of pitch command, but the consistency of his misses suggest that he needs to either adjust his tarting position or his starting angle on the rubber in order to center his release point. As is, he’s a pitcher which is predictably wild, a trait that can undo excellent stuff at the highest level, a lesson that Berrios is learning.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. MIA) – Eickhoff has flashed a wide range between his upside – nine strikeouts and four baserunners in 7.0 innings against the Padres – and his downside – seven runs and nine hits in 5.1 innings against the Brewers – already this young season. His three best starts of the season were his first three, and in the four turns since Eickhoff has posted a 6.65 ERA with a 15:3 K:BB ratio but 28 hits (including four homers) allowed in 21.2 innings. The rough stretch came against weak opponents, in general, facing Atlanta, St. Louis, Cleveland and Milwaukee over the four games. He has only struck out four batters combined across his last two starts, and it’s probably best to watch his performance from the sidelines until he flashes the upside from the beginning of the year.
J.A. Happ TOR (vs. TB) – The superficial stats are shiny, particularly the 5-0 record and the 2.05 ERA, but beneath the surface are questionable peripheral stats that cloud Happ’s value this season. The most glaring issue is with strikeouts, and though Happ has never been a big bat-misser (career 7.5 K/9), this season he has sunk to new lows with just 30 strikeouts in 48.1 innings (5.6 K/9). The walk-related problems of his past appear to be gone, but for a pitcher who has cracked more than five Ks just once in seven starts this season, he essentially has to blank his opponents for six-plus frames to have a good day at the DFS office. The Rays are a lefty-mashing lineup, and though losing Logan Forsythe puts a big dent in their efforts, Tampa Bay still has platoon-tilting hitters like Evan Longoria and Steven Souza who are salivating at the chance to inflate Happ’s ERA.
Jon Niese PIT (vs. ATL)
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. NYY)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. BOS) – Some of this is not Ventura’s fault. As a team, the Red Sox are mashing everything in sight right now, having scored 73 runs over their past seven games, or more than 10 runs per game. Boston has contributed to the demise of Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray over the past week, and Ventura is next on the list. For his part, the right-hander is having a career-worst campaign thus far in 2016. His 28 walks represent the highest total in the majors. His ERA of 4.62 is nearly a half-run higher than last season (which itself was a career-high at the time) and he has only struck out 26 batters in 37.0 innings (6.3 K/9) on the year. There are probably reasons to roster Ventura today, but I sure can’t think of ‘em.
Chad Green NYY (at ARI) – Green makes his major league debut tonight, drawing the interleague start against the Diamondbacks, so there’s a good chance that he’ll get to wield a bat in this one. Started his first tour of Triple-A to kick off the 2016 minor league season, posted a 1.22 ERA in seven starts for Scranton/Wiles-Barre in the International League, struck out almost a batter per inning and maintained a ratio of three strikeouts for every walk. The key to his minor-league success has been keeping the ball in the yard, yielding just 17 homers in 316 innings since the start of 2014 (0.5 HR/9). The question is whether that stinginess holds against big-league batters. He averaged less than six innings per start in the minors, so the odds are against his staying in the game long enough for a quality start in tonight’s game.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at LAD)
John Lamb CIN (at CLE)
Williams Perez ATL (at PIT)
Cody Anderson CLE (vs. CIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Derek Holland TEX (at OAK)
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. TEX) – both of these southpaws have been getting so torched lately that it’s impossible to trust them. Throw a cheap GPP play if compelled, but the only downside to stacking against these two pitchers is that they may not go very deep in the ballgame.
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