Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 12th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-13 02:08:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
De Leon	LAD	NYY
Mitchell	NYY	LAD	34.2	5.45	4.10	1.70	0.0%	19.10%	11.1%	1.04	2.42
Montero	NYM	WAS	21.2	4.57	4.93	1.62	25.0%	23.00%	16.0%	0.42	1.30
Latos	WAS	NYM	179.0	4.88	4.43	1.36	66.7%	17.60%	7.4%	1.21	1.27
Cole	PIT	PHI	322.0	2.93	3.57	1.20	28.6%	22.40%	5.7%	0.48	1.62
Hellickson	PHI	PIT	312.0	4.24	4.14	1.26	0.0%	19.60%	6.2%	1.33	1.13
Odorizzi	TBR	TOR	335.0	3.60	4.08	1.19	36.8%	21.50%	6.9%	1.16	0.85
Liriano	TOR	TBR	325.0	4.18	3.91	1.36	12.5%	24.70%	10.6%	1.05	1.81
Santana	MIN	DET	266.1	3.75	4.38	1.26	38.9%	18.70%	7.2%	0.98	1.16
Norris	DET	MIN	105.2	3.83	4.41	1.33	0.0%	18.80%	7.5%	1.28	1.00
Miley	BAL	BOS	339.2	4.90	4.31	1.39	33.3%	17.90%	7.6%	1.09	1.57
Price	BOS	BAL	418.0	3.12	3.40	1.14	52.4%	25.00%	5.3%	0.84	1.23
Cashner	MIA	ATL	301.2	4.50	4.24	1.45	75.0%	20.00%	8.8%	1.01	1.54
Foltynewicz	ATL	MIA	201.1	4.83	4.22	1.42	0.0%	20.10%	6.9%	1.56	0.94
Peralta	MIL	CIN	212.1	5.09	4.72	1.56	47.4%	14.40%	8.0%	1.40	1.76
Sampson	CIN	MIL	84.2	5.53	4.82	1.69	0.0%	18.80%	11.8%	1.49	0.96
Detwiler	OAK	KCR	95.0	6.44	5.16	1.81	0.0%	14.70%	11.1%	1.33	1.26
Gee	KCR	OAK	151.2	4.75	4.43	1.50	50.0%	16.50%	6.3%	1.60	1.22
Carrasco	CLE	CWS	326.1	3.42	3.03	1.09	0.0%	27.80%	5.8%	1.05	1.63
Gonzalez	CWS	CLE	253.1	4.44	4.53	1.36	40.0%	17.70%	7.8%	1.21	1.15
Perez	TEX	HOU	254.1	4.32	4.85	1.43	37.5%	12.60%	8.5%	0.67	2.17
Fister	HOU	TEX	268.1	4.16	4.79	1.38	58.3%	14.50%	6.8%	1.17	1.28
Hendricks	CHC	STL	345.0	3.05	3.59	1.08	0.0%	22.50%	6.1%	0.81	1.71
Leake	STL	CHC	348.1	4.11	4.05	1.22	45.0%	15.90%	5.1%	1.03	2.01
Anderson	COL	ARI	96.2	3.35	3.80	1.20	0.0%	21.30%	6.1%	1.02	1.83
Miller	ARI	COL	285.0	4.11	4.46	1.39	21.1%	18.40%	8.8%	0.82	1.37
Miranda	SEA	LAA	35.2	4.79	5.00	1.37	0.0%	18.00%	10.0%	1.77	0.79
Nolasco	LAA	SEA	208.0	5.24	4.35	1.36	16.7%	18.00%	5.9%	1.21	1.14
Clemens	SDP	SFG	49.2	5.44	5.35	1.73	0.0%	16.50%	11.7%	2.17	1.02
Samardzija	SFG	SDP	391.2	4.53	4.25	1.25	60.0%	18.30%	5.9%	1.17	1.12

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

There are a few high-end options on today’s slate, but none of the pitchers available is on a solid run, with inconsistency and blowup starts clouding the recent track record of many of the pitchers who are Raise-worthy. Being an All-In candidate involves a blend of top-end upside and a recent track record of consistency, with the ceiling to win tournaments and the floor to play safe in cash games even if the player is off his game. A couple of these pitchers have had these attributes at some point in the season or another, but there’s not a pitcher on the slate who currently fits that prototype.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at CHW) – Carrasco is on a hop-scotch performance pattern over his last five turns, and if the alternating current continues on its current pattern, then Carrasco is due for a standout game today against the White Sox. Too bad it doesn’t really work that way, but there is further encouragement in the fact that his good starts recently have come against weak lineups (the White Sox fit that description) and the rough outings have been against teams that have the ability to put up crooked numbers against anyone. Two starts ago, he was dominating the Marlins with 11 strikeouts over 7.1 scoreless innings, and four starts ago it was eight scoreless frames against the A’s with nine strikeouts. He last 7.1 innings against the Astros in his last turn, but they touched him up for four runs on nine hits and Carrasco only punched out five batters against a strikeout-prone lineup; two starts before that, he gave up seven runs (three earned) in just 4.0 innings against the Rangers. On the bright side, he has compiled eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, after hitting that mark zero times in his previous six games, so he certainly carries the upside component of an All-In candidate and has the strikeout-ceiling to put up a hefty point total.

David Price BOS (vs. BAL) – The Orioles are a much worse team against southpaws this season, with an OPS of .687 against lefties that is 116 points below their mark against right-handers, giving Price an edge against the otherwise-formidable offense of Baltimore. The last time that he faced the Orioles (back in mid-August), Price tossed six frames with just one run allowed on four hits (including a solo homer), but he managed just four strikeouts on the game. He wa a strikeout maven in the first half of the season, reaching double-digit Ks seven times prior to the All-Star break, but he has yet to exceed eight Ks in a game during the second half. That said, he has pitched much better in terms of runs allowed, with six consecutive quality starts and a 6-0 record to show for his work over that stretch. Surprisingly, Price has lacked the vaulted ceilings of an All-In candidate, but he fits the floor description perfectly, having lowered his ERA by nearly a half-run over the last half-dozen turns in the rotation.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at STL) – We often hear about the pitcher who takes his catcher out for dinner following an excellent start, but Hendricks probably needs to treat the entire Cubs’ defense to a free meal after each of his turns, considering that he is the most contact-heavy pitcher on staff and the incredible gloves on Chicago’s north side continue to keep opposing defenses at bay. Consider that Hendricks hasn’t given up more than two runs in a game since July despite exceeding six strikeouts just twice in seven starts over that span, yet the only time that he gave up more than five hits was the seven safeties that he allowed back on first of August in a nine-inning shutout of the Marlins. His opponent lends a dose of trepidation in starting Hendricks today, but keep in mind that he notched 12 strikeouts against the Cards the last time that he faced them (in mid-August), trying a season-high in what was only the second time that he exceeded eight whiffs in a game this season.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. SD) – Pitchers with a 4.00 ERA don’t often make it past the bouncer to get past the velvet rope and into the Raise section, but the Shark has some context clues that vault him to VIP status in tonight’s game. He is coming off an excellent start, recording nine strikeouts and giving up just two runs on four hits in 7.0 innings, a line that is impressive enough on its own but gains luster when considering that it was accomplished at altitude, facing the Rockies at Coors Field. He only lasted four frames the start prior, but he avoided disaster in surrendering three runs and was facing the mighty offense of the Cubs, so there are enough caveats to give Samardzija somewhat of a pass for that start. He threw quality starts in his previous three turns and came one out shy of making it four in a row. The final nail in the Raise-worthy throne for the Shark is that he is facing a weak Padres offense, though it should be noted that the Pads scored five runs (four earned) over 5.0 innings against the right-hander the last time that they squared off, but that was during a rough patch that Samardzija endured during the month of July.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
De Leon					0.251	0.736
Mitchell	0.321	5.14	0.370	5.66	0.253	0.750	0.346	4.58	0.289	0.00	19.1%
Montero			0.245	4.02	0.251	0.729	0.300	3.83	0.226	46.56	23.0%
Latos	0.339	5.34	0.315	4.45	0.243	0.713	0.294	4.36	0.262	0.00	17.6%
Cole	0.296	2.57	0.285	3.27	0.241	0.684	0.319	2.84	0.251	0.00	22.4%
Hellickson	0.342	4.12	0.310	4.33	0.259	0.726	0.286	4.28	0.253	91.89	19.6%
Odorizzi	0.269	2.70	0.334	4.53	0.257	0.776	0.275	3.94	0.236	99.84	21.5%
Liriano	0.299	3.75	0.316	4.30	0.257	0.752	0.298	4.03	0.237	93.21	24.7%
Santana	0.315	3.92	0.300	3.59	0.268	0.749	0.288	3.97	0.250	98.40	18.7%
Norris	0.376	5.19	0.312	3.39	0.259	0.743	0.290	4.40	0.257	78.57	18.8%
Miley	0.296	4.02	0.345	5.17	0.276	0.777	0.311	4.22	0.272	0.00	17.9%
Price	0.294	2.77	0.284	3.24	0.238	0.676	0.302	3.04	0.239	0.00	25.0%
Cashner	0.374	5.24	0.310	3.89	0.255	0.694	0.322	4.14	0.270	94.05	20.0%
Foltynewicz	0.362	4.95	0.339	4.72	0.261	0.702	0.316	4.69	0.276	0.00	20.1%
Peralta	0.385	5.09	0.360	5.08	0.251	0.713	0.327	5.05	0.301	0.00	14.4%
Sampson	0.374	4.65	0.349	6.04	0.251	0.716	0.313	5.22	0.274	0.00	18.8%
Detwiler	0.294	2.64	0.424	8.25	0.272	0.738	0.346	5.47	0.311	0.00	14.7%
Gee	0.375	5.13	0.330	4.38	0.248	0.700	0.324	4.92	0.296	0.00	16.5%
Carrasco	0.294	3.10	0.281	3.68	0.252	0.705	0.293	3.19	0.228	93.17	27.8%
Gonzalez	0.334	3.80	0.322	5.04	0.257	0.746	0.297	4.51	0.264	90.41	17.7%
Perez	0.251	2.17	0.339	4.90	0.247	0.753	0.299	4.18	0.271	92.37	12.6%
Fister	0.359	4.58	0.305	3.71	0.261	0.751	0.297	4.61	0.273	82.57	14.5%
Hendricks	0.310	2.64	0.251	3.37	0.260	0.761	0.272	3.36	0.224	0.00	22.5%
Leake	0.315	4.16	0.301	4.05	0.248	0.739	0.286	4.04	0.259	90.64	15.9%
Anderson	0.255	1.14	0.317	4.07	0.267	0.775	0.297	3.70	0.250	94.13	21.3%
Miller	0.348	4.34	0.286	3.88	0.272	0.788	0.303	3.96	0.258	94.65	18.4%
Miranda			0.330	4.82	0.247	0.705	0.267	5.45	0.252	0.00	18.0%
Nolasco	0.309	4.17	0.354	6.21	0.250	0.737	0.316	4.16	0.278	0.00	18.0%
Clemens	0.332	3.05	0.437	7.14	0.262	0.735	0.309	6.51	0.292	0.00	16.5%
Samardzija	0.344	5.39	0.294	3.72	0.237	0.682	0.291	4.14	0.258	102.25	18.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at TOR) – He might be the first name on the Call list, but Odorizzi is pretty far from clearing the threshold into Raise territory, thanks in part to his tough opponent and in part due to his coming off a horrific seven-run start (over 4.0 innings) at the hands of the Orioles, a game that included just a pair of punchouts for the right-hander. Prior to that game, he had tossed four quality starts in a row, including a pair of impressive outings against the run machine of the Red Sox and a solid game against the high-scoring Rangers. The last time that he faced the Jays was on August 8, a game that involved four runs (two earned) on eight hits and three walks over 5.1 innings, including just four strikeouts. He hasn’t topped seven Ks in a game since mid-June, but it’s worth noting that his biggest K-count of the season came in his first start of the year, with 10 Ks in 5.2 frames against these Blue Jays.

Jose De Leon LAD (at NYY) – De Leon was solid in his major-league debut, tossing a baseline quality start on just 86 pitches, striking out nine Padres and giving away zero free passes in the game. He was obviously helped by the high-K, low-scoring offense of San Diego, but his minor-league track record this season is simply stellar, with a 2.61 ERA in 86.1 innings at Triple-A this season despite pitching in the harsh environments of the Pacific Coast League. He compiled an eye-popping 111 strikeouts (11.6 K/9) against just 20 walks (2.1 BB/9) in that stretch, numbers that support his impressive ownership of the strike zone in his debut despite the fact that he was facing such a soft offense. The volatility factor is naturally increased with any young pitcher enduring his first exposure to the best hitters on the planet, but De Leon has the upside to be a Raise-worthy pitcher as soon as early 2017.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at PHI) – His pedigree and opponent keep him afloat, but if looking at just the recent track record then Cole would find himself much further down the list. It has been a difficult season for the right-hander, and prior to his going on the disabled list with elbow trouble three weeks ago, Cole had endured a horrific four-game run in which he surrendered a 7.06 ERA and a whopping 34 hits in 21.2 innings pitched, as the quartet of rough outings raised his ERA on the season by 0.82 runs. There is no telling whether he will be fully recovered from the injury that sent him to the DL, and since the ailment was to his throwing arm there is a high likelihood that he is still not feeling 100 percent. Throw in the probability that he will be on a strict pitch count, and Cole becomes a far less enticing option despite his soft opponent. He did hold the Phils to one run over 6.0 innings when he last faced them back in July, including seven strikeouts against one walk in the contest, but his downside is greased by elements that have little to do with today’s opponent.

Ervin Santana MIN (at DET) – The 33-year-old is enjoying his best season since 2013, with a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the season, but the peripherals have actually been very consistent over the past four season. He coughed up six runs and gave away five walks against the Blue Jays a couple starts ago, followed by a game against the light-hitting White Sox that featured 11 hits (and miraculously just two runs) over 5.0 frames, but he rebounded somewhat with a baseline quality start against the Royals in his last outing. Santana last faced the Tigers in mid-July, allowing just one run (a solo homer) in 7.0 innings, but his mere counts of two strikeouts and one walk left him vulnerable to the vagaries of balls in play. If he does the same in tonight’s matchup, then he could be met with an early exit.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. PIT) – Hellickson is having his best season in years, but the right-hander appears to be limping to the finish. He has given up a total of eight runs and 17 baserunners across 12.0 innings over his last two games, which doesn’t sound so bad on the surface until realizing that those two outings were against the lowly offenses of the Marlins and Braves. Prior to that, he gave up five runs and ten baserunners in just 4.0 frames against the injury-depleted Mets, a start that effectively turned the tables on what had been an excellent run of starts through July and most of August. This will be Helix’s first start against the Pirates this season, and perhaps the Bucs will be befuddled by his changeup, but don’t be surprised to see multiple baseballs leave the yard and crooked numbers in runs allowed column.

Mike Leake STL (vs. CHC) – Simply facing the Cubs would normally be enough to push a pitcher of Leake’s caliber further down the list of pitchers, but today’s weak slate makes him a consideration, particularly when considering the blowup potential of the next several starters on the list. Leake got hit around by the Pirates in his last turn, giving up three run and nine hits over just 4.1 innings, but he had thrown three consecutive quality starts prior to that game. One of those quality starts came against the Cubs, with Leake barely clearing the QS threshold with three runs allowed over 6.0 innings, including six hits and walk allowed while striking out four batters. His owners would have to be pretty happy with a similar outcome in tonight’s game.

Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. TB)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. MIA)

Doug Fister HOU (vs. TEX)

Andrew Cashner MIA (at ATL)

Tyler Anderson COL (at ARI)

Martin Perez TEX (at HOU)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. CLE)

Rafael Montero NYM (at WAS)

Daniel Norris DET (vs. MIN)

Wily Peralta MIL (at CIN)

Dillon Gee KC (vs. OAK)

Keyvius Sampson CIN (vs. MIL)