Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 5th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-06 02:34:36

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Dickey	TOR	NYY	374.2	4.13	4.80	1.26	47.6%	15.4%	7.8%	1.25	1.17
Tanaka	NYY	TOR	327	3.30	3.54	1.03	66.7%	21.8%	4.2%	1.16	1.48
Jimenez	BAL	TBR	291.1	4.97	4.34	1.52	27.8%	20.2%	10.0%	1.02	1.58
Andriese	TBR	BAL	166.2	4.16	3.95	1.25		19.4%	5.8%	1.13	1.29
Hendricks	CHC	MIL	339	3.08	3.57	1.08		22.4%	6.0%	0.80	1.74
Davies	MIL	CHC	173.1	4.00	4.14	1.25		19.6%	6.8%	1.04	1.50
Colon	NYM	CIN	353.1	3.80	4.18	1.24	42.1%	16.4%	3.5%	1.12	1.23
Stephenson	CIN	NYM	12	3.00	6.15	1.08		8.0%	8.0%	1.50	0.82
Esch	MIA	PHI
Kennedy	KCR	MIN	328.1	3.97	3.85	1.24	47.6%	23.8%	7.4%	1.64	0.84
Berrios	MIN	KCR	37	9.24	5.17	1.97		19.1%	12.6%	1.95	0.91
Weber	ATL	WAS	50.2	4.97	3.47	1.32		15.2%	3.8%	1.07	2.70
Scherzer	WAS	ATL	418.2	2.84	2.77	0.91	60.0%	31.4%	4.8%	1.14	0.75
Weaver	LAA	OAK	309.1	4.92	5.24	1.37	52.4%	12.7%	5.5%	1.63	0.66
Alcantara	OAK	LAA
Wainwright	STL	PIT	191	4.10	4.15	1.30	84.2%	18.7%	6.0%	0.66	1.56
Kuhl	PIT	STL	48.2	3.70	4.71	1.17		16.2%	6.6%	1.11	1.14
Verlander	DET	CWS	321.1	3.33	3.73	1.03	35.0%	24.3%	6.1%	1.06	0.73
Sale	CWS	DET	394.1	3.26	3.00	1.06	64.3%	28.9%	5.3%	0.96	1.12
Moore	SFG	COL	230	4.30	4.54	1.33		19.5%	8.6%	1.21	0.92
Bettis	COL	SFG	268.1	4.76	4.26	1.45		18.0%	7.8%	1.04	1.88
Hamels	TEX	SEA	385.1	3.32	3.69	1.22	58.8%	24.0%	7.9%	0.96	1.56
Hernandez	SEA	TEX	323.1	3.51	3.77	1.21	81.0%	22.0%	8.2%	1.03	2.00
Pomeranz	BOS	SDP	239	3.24	3.75	1.16	25.0%	25.6%	9.2%	0.94	1.20
Jackson	SDP	BOS	110.1	4.65	5.02	1.42	15.0%	15.1%	10.5%	0.98	1.09
Fiers	HOU	CLE	324.1	3.97	4.05	1.29		21.2%	7.1%	1.30	1.05
Clevinger	CLE	HOU	35.2	5.30	4.88	1.46		20.4%	12.7%	1.01	1.14
Greinke	ARI	LAD	358.2	2.61	3.56	1.00	50.0%	22.3%	4.9%	0.75	1.41
Maeda	LAD	ARI	146.2	3.38	3.68	1.10		25.0%	6.8%	1.10	1.17

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. ATL) – Arguably the game’s top pitcher going up against arguably its worst offense is a no-brainer, that is if you can fit him into your budget ($13700 DraftKings, $11400 on FanDuel). Of course, the last time that Scherzer faced the nerf lineup of Atlanta (on August 20th), the Braves scored four runs on six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings, and Scherzer – who has struck out 10 or more batters in his last two games and four of his last six – managed just six Ks in the contest. He also faced the Braves in his first two starts of the season, and overall Scherzer’s stats have been rather mundane against the Braves: a 4.66 ERA with a 19:8 K:BB in 19.1 innings. There are a ton of interesting options on today’s slate and Scherzer is the best of the bunch, but he will need to have an incredible day in order to justify his salary above and beyond the plethora of Raise options.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. DET) – Sale’s turn against the Mariners two starts ago was reminiscent of the 2015 vintage, with 14 strikeouts in a complete game that included three runs scored and 120 pitches thrown. It was the second time in the month of August that he had broken through to double-digit strikeouts, which were the first two times that had happened this season. He went eight full frames against these Tigers in last start, with two runs allowed on eight hits and a surprisingly-high total of four walks, though Sale only managed a half-dozen strikeouts in the game. He has finished the eighth inning in three consecutive starts and has gone at least 7.0 innings in 19 of his 26 starts this season, giving him big upside as a stat compiler.

Justin Verlander DET (at CHW) – Sale’s mound opponent today will be none other than Verlander, in a rematch of the game between these two teams five days ago. The two aces went toe-to-toe and matched each other with two runs allowed, with each leaving with no decision, but Verlander had the superior fantasy line with just three hits (including two solo homers) and no walks allowed but nine strikeouts in the contest. Verlander has actually been very similar to Sale this season – big V has gone at least 7.0 innings in 17 of his 28 starts this season, they are similar in the areas of ERA (3.10 and 3.30), very low hit rates, strong K rates and an avoidance of walks. Verlander has maintained the higher K ceiling on a per-game basis throughout the season; he has cracked double-digits five times, and since the All-Star break the right-hander has recorded 78 strikeouts in 70.2 innings.

Cole Hamels TEX (at SEA) – Hamels hasn’t had a walk rate higher than 2.6 BB/9 since his rookie season of 2006, but this year he has been giving away the free passes at an exorbitant rate of 3.4 BB/9. Otherwise, this has been a standard Hamels season with strong run prevention, low hit rates and a K per inning. The southpaw is coming off his shortest start of the season, giving up six runs on seven hits and four walks against the Mariners. He only struck out four batters in the ballgame, and though that four-count has been his floor for single-game Ks, it was also the eighth time in 27 starts that he finished that low in the strikeout department. He also has strikeout spikes, such as the 10 Ks against the Rays two starts ago or the dozen whiffs that he managed against the Royals in his last start of July, so there is a wide range of variance on his K-count – and the resulting fantasy score – for today’s game.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (at SD) – He hasn’t given up more three runs in a start since July, but up until his last couple starts Pomeranz had failed to produce the strikeouts as a member of the Red Sox that he put up in San Diego. But the Rays afforded Pomeranz the opportunity to build on those numbers, and though the Rays have a reputation for ripping southpaws, Pomeranz was able to handle them to the tube of a 3.55 ERA and 19:3 K:BB in 12.2 innings. Today he toes a familiar rubber in Petco Park, his home stomping ground for most of the season, and similar to the team from Tampa Bay, the Padres have a reputation for hitting lefties that has been sullied by trades and promotions, begetting a very different roster than the one that Pomeranz left. It’s still weak, it’s just different.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIL) – The Cubs have a historically strong defense, resulting in an opponents’ BABiP of just .255 for the season, and no pitcher takes greater advantage of the Cubs’ greatest strength than Hendricks, a high-contact pitcher who rarely piles up strikeouts or walks. In fact, four of the mere six runs that he gave up in the month of August came on solo home runs, with just two runs scoring against the combination of Hendricks plus the Cubbie defense. He has a couple of 12-strikeout starts that appear to be complete outliers, as he hasn’t surpassed eight strikeouts in any of his other 24 turns, but the K-laden Brewers might open the door for another spike in strikeouts for Hendricks.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. TEX) – The King was cruising into his last start, with a composite ERA of 1.86 over his last four games with a 29:11 K:BB over 29 innings pitched, but then the Rangers pounced on Felix for six runs in just 4.0 innings, and they did so on the heels of just four hits but a total of four walks against Hernandez in the game.He faces the Rangers once again this time around, facing off with Cole Hamels, and the King will need to relocate the strike zone against a patient Texas lineup that has walked nine times against Hernandez in 10.0 innings against him this season – granted, the first five free passes came on Opening Day.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Dickey	0.312	3.86	0.326	4.36	0.251	0.736	0.263	4.76	0.245	97.65	15.4%
Tanaka	0.282	3.50	0.275	3.11	0.258	0.780	0.261	3.60	0.226	94.63	21.8%
Jimenez	0.347	5.52	0.331	4.47	0.246	0.721	0.327	4.27	0.272	0.00	20.2%
Andriese	0.308	4.17	0.306	4.15	0.261	0.773	0.296	3.93	0.257	54.37	19.4%
Hendricks	0.311	2.68	0.249	3.39	0.250	0.711	0.272	3.34	0.223	0.00	22.4%
Davies	0.312	2.98	0.302	4.91	0.250	0.743	0.290	3.93	0.25	92.30	19.6%
Colon	0.321	3.75	0.307	3.84	0.250	0.713	0.302	3.88	0.272	83.34	16.4%
Stephenson					0.242	0.712	0.179	5.90	0.2	0.04	8.0%
Eickhoff	0.348	4.41	0.263	2.82	0.261	0.703	0.284	3.89	0.244	93.31	20.8%
Esch					0.242	0.686
Kennedy	0.326	4.06	0.330	3.89	0.248	0.714	0.282	4.61	0.242	99.18	23.8%
Berrios	0.353	7.00	0.471	11.37	0.262	0.717	0.368	6.17	0.318	0.00	19.1%
Weber	0.406	6.46	0.274	3.67	0.250	0.730	0.327	4.07	0.295	0.00	15.2%
Scherzer	0.293	3.09	0.219	2.58	0.254	0.691	0.256	2.96	0.196	0.01	31.4%
Weaver	0.353	4.53	0.352	5.27	0.249	0.702	0.291	5.27	0.284	0.00	12.7%
Alcantara					0.257	0.723
Wainwright	0.341	4.67	0.295	3.70	0.258	0.723	0.320	3.37	0.268	87.65	18.7%
Kuhl	0.345	4.56	0.274	2.88	0.260	0.760	0.262	4.36	0.24	84.00	16.2%
Verlander	0.272	2.94	0.276	3.74	0.251	0.703	0.256	3.56	0.213	107.54	24.3%
Sale	0.263	3.29	0.281	3.26	0.270	0.778	0.297	3.02	0.225	107.61	28.9%
Moore	0.305	5.28	0.320	3.98	0.263	0.727	0.288	4.45	0.251	97.97	19.5%
Bettis	0.327	4.43	0.351	5.08	0.264	0.740	0.318	4.18	0.275	0.00	18.0%
Hamels	0.272	2.37	0.301	3.58	0.257	0.732	0.292	3.65	0.235	103.59	24.0%
Hernandez	0.305	3.70	0.297	3.32	0.259	0.744	0.278	3.99	0.232	99.26	22.0%
Pomeranz	0.237	1.96	0.294	3.76	0.250	0.717	0.265	3.58	0.211	50.03	25.6%
Jackson	0.318	3.61	0.326	5.43	0.274	0.775	0.279	4.66	0.252	28.73	15.1%
Fiers	0.302	3.79	0.339	4.12	0.256	0.743	0.294	4.25	0.253	94.30	21.2%
Clevinger	0.265	4.15	0.355	6.38	0.249	0.745	0.277	4.49	0.234	0.00	20.4%
Greinke	0.270	2.74	0.249	2.49	0.252	0.747	0.260	3.09	0.215	0.00	22.3%
Maeda	0.301	2.98	0.259	3.70	0.263	0.735	0.272	3.68	0.222	93.31	25.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. ARI) – One of the common ties between many of the pitchers ranked above Maeda on this list is the track record of going deep into ballgames. Maeda has no such track record. He has gone as deep as seven full innings just twice this season in 26 starts, both of which went exactly 7.0 frames, and Maeda has only gone over 100 pitches in seven turns, capped at 107. He has given up two or three runs in each of his last seven starts, but that particular stat is less impressive when considering that he has gone just 5.0 innings in three of his last four turns.

Zack Greinke ARI (at LAD) – Greinke has been off his usual game since returning from the disabled list near the beginning of August. The start that ruined his entire statline was the 1.2-inning, nine-run butchering that he endured at the hands of the Red Sox on August 9, but his performance since that start has been shaky on a game-to-game basis, including his one strikeout against the Giants in his last start and the four runs he gave up to the Braves over 6.0 innings the start prior. He has enjoyed a cushy set of starts since the Boston massacre, but the Dodgers pose his biggest threat since the day that his ERA jumped three-quarters of a run.

Ian Kennedy KC (at MIN) – Kennedy was on a great string of starts, even scoring 21.4 fantasy points (DraftKings) against the mighty Red Sox two turns ago, but he followed that up with a 3.45-point effort against the Yankees in his last turn, with just one strikeout over 6.1 innings. Ks have sustained Kennedy’s DFS value for most of the season, but lately that has not been the case. Of note: IPK faced the Twins in KC just three starts ago, spinning eight scoreless frames with four hits and no walks against, with a six-pack of Ks to boot.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TOR) – Tanaka has surpassed his previous high in innings pitched for an MLB season, making three more starts than any campaign prior while doing it with a compromised ligament in his elbow. He had been soft on strikeouts most of the season, but in mid-August Tanaka had a three-start run with 25 strikeouts in 20.2 innings, though he has reverted back to his low-K form over the last two starts. He has the skillset to rank higher on this list, but the tough matchup with Toronto knocks Tanaka down a peg.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at MIA)

Adam Wainwright STL (at PIT)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at NYY)

Bartolo Colon NYM (at CIN)

Robert Stephenson CIN (vs. NYM)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. CHC)

Jose Berrios MIN (vs. KC)

Mike Clevinger CLE (vs. HOU)

Mike Fiers HOU (at CLE)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. BAL)

Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. STL)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at TB)