Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 30th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimmermann | DET | MIN | 227.2 | 3.28 | 3.89 | 1.19 | 52.6% | 19.2% | 4.9% | 0.95 | 1.19 |
| Duffey | MIN | DET | 62 | 3.05 | 3.99 | 1.34 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 0.73 | 1.62 | |
| Ross | WAS | STL | 93.1 | 3.09 | 3.78 | 1.06 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 0.68 | 1.50 | |
| Garcia | STL | WAS | 154.2 | 2.56 | 3.36 | 1.07 | 28.6% | 20.6% | 6.7% | 0.35 | 2.75 |
| Teheran | ATL | CHC | 230 | 4.11 | 4.25 | 1.31 | 70.0% | 20.2% | 8.7% | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Lackey | CHC | ATL | 243.1 | 3.00 | 3.82 | 1.21 | 57.9% | 20.2% | 5.9% | 0.89 | 1.37 |
| Devenski | HOU | OAK | |||||||||
| Hahn | OAK | HOU | 96.2 | 3.35 | 4.01 | 1.17 | 57.1% | 15.8% | 6.2% | 0.47 | 2.30 |
| Cain | SFG | NYM | 81.2 | 5.95 | 4.76 | 1.54 | 40.0% | 15.6% | 7.7% | 1.54 | 0.89 |
| Degrom | NYM | SFG | 202.2 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 26.9% | 4.8% | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| Happ | TOR | TBR | 198 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 1.26 | 30.8% | 20.0% | 6.2% | 0.82 | 1.21 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 238.1 | 3.47 | 3.06 | 1.20 | 55.0% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 0.94 | 1.39 |
| Simon | CIN | PIT | 196.1 | 5.59 | 4.84 | 1.51 | 63.2% | 14.7% | 8.4% | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Liriano | PIT | CIN | 208 | 3.50 | 3.54 | 1.25 | 12.5% | 26.2% | 10.0% | 0.87 | 1.94 |
| Bauer | CLE | PHI | 187.1 | 4.56 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 38.5% | 23.1% | 10.6% | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | CLE | 75.1 | 3.11 | 3.38 | 1.08 | 25.2% | 5.9% | 0.96 | 0.98 | |
| Latos | CWS | BAL | 140.2 | 4.22 | 4.03 | 1.22 | 66.7% | 19.2% | 6.6% | 0.90 | 1.31 |
| Gausman | BAL | CWS | 117.1 | 4.14 | 3.65 | 1.22 | 37.5% | 22.4% | 6.3% | 1.30 | 1.16 |
| Chen | MIA | MIL | 216.1 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 1.21 | 31.6% | 19.4% | 5.0% | 1.33 | 1.06 |
| Anderson | MIL | MIA | 172.2 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| Pineda | NYY | BOS | 182.2 | 4.68 | 3.11 | 1.27 | 75.0% | 23.8% | 3.4% | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| Porcello | BOS | NYY | 197.2 | 4.74 | 3.60 | 1.31 | 55.6% | 21.3% | 5.1% | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | TEX | 153.2 | 4.74 | 4.10 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.0% | 6.9% | 1.70 | 0.93 |
| Holland | TEX | LAA | 81.2 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 1.25 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 1.43 | 1.06 | |
| Rusin | COL | ARI | 142.2 | 5.11 | 4.28 | 1.54 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 1.20 | 1.95 | |
| Greinke | ARI | COL | 253.1 | 2.20 | 3.36 | 0.92 | 50.0% | 22.9% | 4.7% | 0.67 | 1.44 |
| Ventura | KCR | SEA | 186.1 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 1.29 | 44.4% | 22.4% | 9.1% | 0.72 | 1.75 |
| Miley | SEA | KCR | 216.2 | 4.74 | 4.21 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 17.8% | 7.5% | 0.87 | 1.56 |
| Rea | SDP | LAD | 53 | 4.58 | 4.23 | 1.43 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 0.68 | 1.64 | |
| Stripling | LAD | SDP | 22.1 | 3.22 | 4.69 | 1.30 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 0.40 | 1.72 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Every pitcher on today’s slate has warts, and there isn’t a combination of pitcher and context that justifies an all-in. deGrom will be on a pitch count, Archer is facing the Jays and has been maddeningly inconsistent, Zimmermann lacks the Ks to warrant this level of upside, Greinke has been a shell of himself, and on and on. Save your money for the bats, but let’s go dumpster-diving to see what plays.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. SF) – If I felt compelled to have at least one pitcher from today’s slate in the all-in section, then deGrom would be my guy. He certainly has the track record to justify it, but the reason that he falls short is the expectation that his workload will be limited. He is obviously behind on his training, and after throwing 82 pitches in his last turn following a multi-week hiatus, deGrom will likely have a short leash once again.
Jordan Zimmermann DET (at MIN) – Zimm finally allowed an earned run, and now that the monkey is off his back he can return to his regularly scheduled programming of inducing weak contact. The Twins might make that a challenge, however, as a team that often swings empty and is currently fourth in MLB in batter strikeouts, and the upside for a decent K count is what vaults Zimmermann into raise status.
Chris Archer TB (vs. TOR) – Archer’s struggles over the first four starts were well-documented, to the extent that most gamers shied away without giving Archer a second thought last Monday against the Orioles, so Archer went ahead and turned in his best game of the season, with 6.2 innings of zeroes on the scoreboard to go with 10 strikeouts and no walks. His next -best start was the first turn of the year, against these Blue Jays, in which Archer generated 15 outs, and 12 of those 15 came via the strikeout.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zimmermann | 0.321 | 3.47 | 0.271 | 3.08 | 0.242 | 0.698 | 0.298 | 3.63 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 19.2% |
| Duffey | 0.318 | 2.48 | 0.308 | 3.55 | 0.267 | 0.732 | 0.311 | 3.50 | 0.255 | 0.02 | 20.7% |
| Ross | 0.345 | 3.10 | 0.190 | 3.08 | 0.264 | 0.754 | 0.253 | 3.34 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Garcia | 0.265 | 3.31 | 0.250 | 2.36 | 0.265 | 0.765 | 0.270 | 2.86 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Teheran | 0.388 | 5.68 | 0.257 | 2.83 | 0.248 | 0.740 | 0.286 | 4.45 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 20.2% |
| Lackey | 0.329 | 3.04 | 0.274 | 2.96 | 0.255 | 0.678 | 0.299 | 3.53 | 0.252 | 0.01 | 20.2% |
| Devenski | 0.248 | 0.701 | |||||||||
| Hahn | 0.322 | 4.60 | 0.228 | 2.17 | 0.248 | 0.747 | 0.273 | 3.51 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 15.8% |
| Cain | 0.391 | 7.23 | 0.361 | 4.87 | 0.245 | 0.713 | 0.319 | 5.14 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 15.6% |
| Degrom | 0.280 | 2.99 | 0.219 | 1.94 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.277 | 2.64 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 26.9% |
| Happ | 0.294 | 2.31 | 0.308 | 3.81 | 0.259 | 0.752 | 0.309 | 3.49 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Archer | 0.280 | 3.55 | 0.294 | 3.39 | 0.263 | 0.782 | 0.311 | 3.06 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 29.4% |
| Simon | 0.384 | 5.50 | 0.330 | 5.71 | 0.267 | 0.739 | 0.306 | 4.96 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 14.7% |
| Liriano | 0.269 | 3.20 | 0.297 | 3.59 | 0.251 | 0.722 | 0.290 | 3.53 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 26.2% |
| Bauer | 0.318 | 4.31 | 0.314 | 4.82 | 0.245 | 0.681 | 0.284 | 4.29 | 0.234 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
| Eickhoff | 0.354 | 5.17 | 0.227 | 1.64 | 0.253 | 0.726 | 0.272 | 3.22 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 25.2% |
| Latos | 0.316 | 4.75 | 0.288 | 3.75 | 0.256 | 0.756 | 0.283 | 3.69 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 19.2% |
| Gausman | 0.279 | 2.90 | 0.354 | 5.53 | 0.251 | 0.698 | 0.288 | 4.01 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Chen | 0.252 | 1.53 | 0.345 | 4.08 | 0.230 | 0.672 | 0.290 | 4.15 | 0.258 | 0.01 | 19.4% |
| Anderson | 0.319 | 3.61 | 0.345 | 4.91 | 0.256 | 0.684 | 0.310 | 4.17 | 0.274 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Pineda | 0.329 | 4.36 | 0.344 | 4.97 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.337 | 3.61 | 0.279 | 0.01 | 23.8% |
| Porcello | 0.335 | 4.61 | 0.334 | 4.88 | 0.247 | 0.737 | 0.322 | 4.13 | 0.274 | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Shoemaker | 0.319 | 5.23 | 0.347 | 4.18 | 0.258 | 0.735 | 0.282 | 4.84 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Holland | 0.272 | 4.30 | 0.347 | 4.43 | 0.234 | 0.676 | 0.269 | 4.88 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 17.1% |
| Rusin | 0.356 | 5.09 | 0.360 | 4.93 | 0.263 | 0.761 | 0.331 | 4.55 | 0.3 | 0.01 | 14.7% |
| Greinke | 0.266 | 2.41 | 0.227 | 2.04 | 0.268 | 0.774 | 0.245 | 2.94 | 0.201 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Ventura | 0.310 | 4.70 | 0.292 | 3.05 | 0.241 | 0.716 | 0.297 | 3.58 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 22.4% |
| Miley | 0.297 | 4.18 | 0.340 | 4.91 | 0.272 | 0.729 | 0.316 | 3.88 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Rea | 0.280 | 3.82 | 0.388 | 5.64 | 0.245 | 0.728 | 0.319 | 3.82 | 0.263 | 0.02 | 19.2% |
| Stripling | 0.240 | 1.26 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 0.269 | 3.60 | 0.226 | 0.04 | 17.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. COL) – Maybe he’s still sick from the flu that infected Greinke on Opening Day, but things haven’t gotten much better over the last few starts. In his last outing, Greinke coughed up seven earned runs – matching his Opening Day total – watching the Cardinals dance around the bags with 11 hits but no walks, and with just two strikeouts over 6.2 innings. The Rockies are the ballclub that tortured Greinke in his first start of the 2015 season, and like this outing, it was played at Chase Field. I’m sure he’ll study tape of that game in order to ascertain what was wrong, but whether that leads to improvement on the field is anyone’s guess.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. CIN) – Liriano has been a mess this season, and though high walk frequencies are par for the course with the southpaw, he has taken free passes to a whole other level this season. Liriano leads the majors with 17 walks this season, accomplished in 21.1 innings for a hefty rate of 7.2 BB/9. He does have a good matchup today, though, facing a Reds club that has limped out of the gate. Joey Votto, in particular, has been of little value at the plate, and with a diminished Votto and a platoon-phonic Jay Bruce, Liriano could potentially spin a good game against the Reds even if his location is off, so long as his command and pitch execution.
John Lackey CHC (vs. ATL) – The cagey old veteran is given a relatively-safe position, facing the light-hitting Braves, but two of the four games that he has pitched this season have been clunkers, as both his first and his most recent start involved six earned runs. He gets the Atlanta benefit to his expected runs and hits allowed, and the strikeouts are all over the place, landing from 11 Ks in 7.0 innings on the high end and four strikeouts in 6.0 frames on the low. Watch the weather reports with this one, as there is a strong likelihood of heavy rains that could result in a lengthy delay or even a postponement. Check out Kevin Roth’s page to make sure that this game looks like it’s going to play before locking Lacket into the final roster.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. CLE)
Trevor Bauer CLE (at PHI) – I like Bauer today, both for the K upside and the weak opponent, but with his transition from the bullpen back to the rotation he might be slightly limited by pitch count restrictions in tonight’s game. There will likely be plenty of walks, further denting his innings total, but Bauer carries some added benefit from the novelty factor as well as the vaulted ceiling of upside if he can find that happy medium between power and stability.
Yordano Ventura KC (at SEA)
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. WAS)
Joe Ross WAS (at STL) – There is a laundry list of reasons to fade Ross today, even though his friendly price tag at some sites is very enticing. Starting with the obvious, Ross has a lower ceiling due to the modest strikeout totals that he has posted throughout his professional career, including 10 strikeouts in 16.2 innings this season. Throw in the fact that he’s facing the high-scoring circus act of the Cardinals, is on the road and is dealing with the blister issue on his right middle finger, and there are a lot things that could go seriously wrong for Ross. That is the most common – and also the worst – finger for a pitcher to develop a blister because of its role in gripping the baseball on every pitch, and there’s no telling if the blister will flare up again and cut his outing short or if any discomfort will lead to issues with pitch command. Ross is a great pitcher, and on most days he’s an undervalued commodity in DFS, but there are too many ifs to consider starting him in anything but a GPP roll of the dice.
Mat Latos CHW (at BAL) – Yeah, I know the numbers, but that 0.74 ERA is not going to stand up very long, particularly when built on a foundation of just 13 hits yet only 13 strikeouts in 24.1 innings this season. Baltimore can be a cruel source of regression for any streaking pitcher, and it will be difficult for Latos to depart this game with a sub-1.00 ERA intact.
Michael Pineda NYY (at BOS) – Since the start o the 2015 season, Pineda has a K-to-walk ratio of better than seven-to-one, yet his 4.68 ERA and 28 homers allowed (1.4 HR/9) are stark reminders that a pitcher’s ability to command the baseball within the strike zone is a tougher skill to learn than getting that ball near the zone. Facing Boston in the shadow of the Green Monster is likely to bring out the pinata.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at MIL)
Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. CHW)
Derek Holland TEX (vs. LAA)
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. NYY)
Julio Teheran ATL (at CHC)
Ross Stripling LAD (vs. SD)
J.A. Happ TOR (at TB)
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. HOU)
Chris Rusin COL (at ARI)
Matt Cain SF (at NYM)
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. MIA)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TEX)
Chris Devenski HOU (at OAK) – He has been awesome out of pen for his dozen innings, but we have to figure that he’s on a short leash with a strict pitch limit in his first start of the season.
Tyler Duffey MIN (vs. DET)
Colin Rea SD (at LAD)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Wade Miley SEA (vs. KC)
Alfredo Simon CIN (at PIT)
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