Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 15th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-16 20:53:06

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Tanaka	NYY	TOR	236	3.20	2.94	1.04	66.7%	24.8%	4.3%	1.26	1.44
Estrada	TOR	NYY	268.1	3.86	4.09	1.16	27.8%	19.8%	7.3%	1.34	0.66
Hernandez	SEA	BOS	386.2	2.51	2.76	1.00	81.0%	25.8%	5.8%	0.67	2.18
Miley	BOS	SEA	334	4.47	3.93	1.40	33.3%	19.5%	8.6%	0.97	1.69
Bassitt	OAK	BAL	84	3.00	4.23	1.24		18.4%	8.2%	0.32	1.01
Gonzalez	BAL	OAK	278.1	3.75	4.34	1.31	40.0%	17.3%	7.6%	1.46	0.96
Williams	PHI	MIL	207.2	5.20	4.25	1.50		14.8%	6.4%	1.30	1.41
Nelson	MIL	PHI	212.1	4.07	3.82	1.30		19.8%	7.4%	0.85	1.61
Morton	PIT	NYM	239.2	3.98	3.80	1.30	50.0%	17.6%	8.2%	0.60	2.63
Niese	NYM	PIT	323	3.43	3.88	1.28	41.2%	16.7%	6.0%	0.86	1.82
Tomlin	CLE	MIN	104	4.76	3.28	1.29	23.1%	21.1%	3.1%	1.56	1.05
Duffey	MIN	CLE
Corbin	ARI	ATL	35.1	4.08	3.21	1.25		23.5%	5.4%	1.53	1.63
Foltynewicz	ATL	ARI	91	5.24	4.31	1.59		18.8%	7.8%	1.68	0.65
Shoemaker	LAA	KCR	251.2	3.65	3.42	1.15	44.4%	22.3%	5.0%	1.22	0.98
Cueto	KCR	LAA	396.1	2.36	3.27	0.95	76.2%	24.3%	6.3%	0.75	1.26
Verlander	DET	HOU	269	4.55	4.19	1.36	35.0%	17.8%	6.9%	0.94	0.91
McHugh	HOU	DET	299.2	3.45	3.53	1.16	42.9%	22.1%	6.3%	0.84	1.27
Arrieta	CHC	CHW	312	2.45	2.91	0.99	50.0%	26.7%	6.6%	0.40	1.83
Quintana	CHW	CHC	348.1	3.44	3.50	1.26	50.0%	21.1%	5.7%	0.57	1.45
Hand	MIA	STL	167.2	4.35	4.26	1.33	33.3%	14.5%	7.5%	0.59	1.61
Lackey	STL	MIA	349.1	3.43	3.82	1.24	57.9%	18.8%	5.8%	0.95	1.28
Archer	TBR	TEX	349.1	3.01	3.27	1.16	55.0%	25.3%	7.7%	0.64	1.46
Lewis	TEX	TBR	316.2	4.92	4.17	1.37	11.8%	17.7%	5.5%	1.31	0.74
Cashner	SDP	COL	257.2	3.35	3.81	1.24	75.0%	19.1%	6.5%	0.80	1.48
Gray	COL	SDP
Holmberg	CIN	LAD	47.2	4.15	5.24	1.36		14.3%	11.9%	1.89	0.90
Anderson	LAD	CIN	172	3.30	3.49	1.33	20.0%	16.3%	6.9%	0.63	3.19
Gonzalez	WAS	SFG	282	3.54	3.56	1.29	46.7%	23.1%	8.5%	0.48	1.63
Peavy	SFG	WAS	253	3.74	4.11	1.26	42.1%	18.6%	7.2%	1.00	0.92

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Archer TB (at TEX) – From a performance standpoint, the difference between the 2014 and the 2015 version of Chris Archer are night and day. The K rate has shot up an astronomical 10 percentage points, from last season’s 21.1 percent rate to the 31.1 percent of this year. The walk rate has plummeted from 8.8 percent last season to 6.2 percent in this one, shaving more than a full walk per nine innings off of his stat-line. The homers are up slightly, but the overall hit count has dropped from 8.2 safeties per nine innings last year to 2015’s 6.8 hits per nine. His velocity is up by about 0.6 mph, on average, an impressive feat considering that most pitchers lose velo as they age. His pitch selection hasn’t changed much, except that last year’s sinkers are all being lumped with the four-seamers this year, an impact that one would expect would hurt his bottom line rather than help it. Apparently he only needs two pitches to own the American League.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at CHW) – Arrieta’s breakout was last season, but his ability to carry those skills over the off-season and bring them into 2015 is nearly as impressive as the breakout itself. The right-hander is on a devastating run of dominance, with a 1.23 ERA over his last 10 starts, including 69 strikeouts against just 18 walks in 73.3 innings of work, including just one home run surrendered during that span. The strikeouts were more plentiful in his first dozen turns, but so were the runs, and whether or not his fantasy owners would trade one for the other is irrelevant when the surging Cubs benefiting most from his run prevention.

Johnny Cueto KC (vs. LAA) – Cueto has taken quite nicely to his new ballclub. In three games against some of the top offenses in baseball (the Blue Jays once and the Tigers twice), Cueto has thrown 22.0 innings of 2.05 ERA baseball, and he has pitched better with each start. It started with a baseline quality start in Toronto, followed by two earned runs across seven frames, and in his last start Cueto tossed a complete-game shutout (yes, I realize that term is redundant, but “shutout” sounds so much more impressive with “complete game” in front of it). His K count can be volatile, with the upside for double digits yet the downside of fewer than five punchouts (which he has done eight times this season) in any given start, but he will likely stay in the game long enough to log at least a half-dozen innings (which he has done in 19 of his 22 starts).

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at SF) – There is often a thin line that separates the All-in crew from the top of the Raise set, but today the discrepancy is clearer, with a wide gulf between the values of Cueto and Gonzalez. Gio has been on a roll for nearly two months now, with a 1.48 ERA over his last eight starts, never giving up more than a pair of earned runs and keeping the run-scoring to a single tally or less in six of those eight games. Gonzalez walks a few more batters than his DFS owners would like to see and his K rate is somewhat pedestrian at 20.9 percent (down nearly four percentage points from 2014), but his career-long avoidance of homers has remained intact with just five long balls given up in 123.3 innings this season. The Giants’ offense has been strong this season, with a .320 wOBA and a team OPS of 736, but those same numbers have taken a dive to .287 and 655, respectively, over the last seven days. The SF lineup also gets dented against southpaws, so Gonzalez has the peripheral aspects of context in his favor.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. CHC) – It took Quintana a couple of months to hide April’s nine-run shellacking against the Tigers within his ERA, but he has stabilized the run prevention over the summer . The workhorse has thrown at least 92 pitches in each of his 23 starts this season, including seven straight games over the century mark, and he is a good bet to log innings tonight against the Cubs. The strikeouts are trending upward, with 51 K’s in his last 54.7 innings, and a matchup with the most strikeout-prone lineup in baseball will likely magnify that trend. He will just have to be careful with a Cubs lineup that has been on fire lately, with a .364 wOBA and 838 OPS over their last seven days.

John Lackey STL (vs. MIA) – Entering August, Lackey was on a nine-start run of throwing 7.0 or more innings and allowing two or fewer runs, all of which came on the heels of a 10-run drubbing in Colorado. He has broken the streaks for both innings and run allowed yet stayed on the consistency train, with a pair of baseline quality starts in his last two turns, with each game featuring exactly 6.0 innings pitched and three runs allowed. Today he faces the Marlins, a club that he has gone up against just one time in his 13-year career, and he should have an easy time fishing off the Miami pier given the lack of Giancarlo Stanton in the water.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Tanaka	0.282	2.92	0.304	3.50	0.256	0.761	0.275	3.52	0.23	97.19	24.8%
Estrada	0.296	3.52	0.318	4.19	0.254	0.745	0.251	4.41	0.226	71.27	19.8%
Hernandez	0.257	2.08	0.263	3.04	0.256	0.708	0.270	2.83	0.211	100.02	25.8%
Miley	0.307	4.91	0.337	4.34	0.255	0.696	0.311	4.02	0.263	97.27	19.5%
Bassitt	0.296	2.72	0.288	3.35	0.249	0.730	0.289	3.35	0.237	78.33	18.4%
Gonzalez	0.340	3.48	0.329	4.04	0.253	0.697	0.279	4.88	0.257	94.06	17.3%
Williams	0.348	4.62	0.359	5.71	0.258	0.707	0.325	4.68	0.296	60.55	14.8%
Nelson	0.355	4.86	0.282	3.46	0.250	0.675	0.303	3.84	0.254	89.14	19.8%
Morton	0.330	4.57	0.298	3.46	0.241	0.683	0.296	3.85	0.25	94.38	17.6%
Niese	0.294	3.79	0.326	3.32	0.255	0.698	0.298	3.84	0.262	92.90	16.7%
Tomlin	0.307	4.63	0.370	4.91	0.246	0.699	0.320	4.01	0.278	68.60	21.1%
Duffey	0.882	0.00	0.664	32.40	0.251	0.713
Corbin	0.375	4.26	0.332	4.03	0.231	0.631	0.306	4.18	0.259	77.14	23.5%
Foltynewicz	0.414	5.36	0.351	5.14	0.267	0.740	0.342	5.00	0.301	49.55	18.8%
Shoemaker	0.311	3.94	0.303	3.32	0.269	0.736	0.289	3.76	0.246	80.46	22.3%
Cueto	0.243	2.00	0.268	2.69	0.249	0.707	0.238	3.19	0.193	105.71	24.3%
Verlander	0.305	3.40	0.360	6.07	0.244	0.739	0.309	3.92	0.268	105.88	17.8%
McHugh	0.277	3.17	0.311	3.79	0.271	0.749	0.288	3.43	0.237	100.10	22.1%
Arrieta	0.244	2.10	0.253	2.74	0.252	0.698	0.271	2.46	0.202	100.00	26.7%
Quintana	0.289	4.23	0.312	3.17	0.248	0.711	0.325	2.99	0.263	104.65	21.1%
Hand	0.266	3.50	0.334	4.75	0.234	0.665	0.294	3.75	0.26	44.56	14.5%
Lackey	0.312	3.08	0.305	3.77	0.245	0.655	0.295	3.69	0.255	97.24	18.8%
Archer	0.270	2.88	0.283	3.18	0.261	0.740	0.291	3.01	0.224	100.16	25.3%
Lewis	0.352	4.75	0.330	5.13	0.240	0.681	0.315	4.33	0.279	96.69	17.7%
Cashner	0.343	4.51	0.269	2.38	0.275	0.788	0.292	3.55	0.248	96.68	19.1%
Gray					0.242	0.676
Holmberg	0.388	4.35	0.335	4.10	0.261	0.741	0.217	6.60	0.225	80.30	14.3%
Anderson	0.302	3.86	0.313	3.06	0.249	0.734	0.313	3.56	0.271	87.03	16.3%
Gonzalez	0.281	3.42	0.308	3.58	0.262	0.693	0.316	3.02	0.246	96.98	23.1%
Peavy	0.330	4.41	0.311	3.10	0.247	0.704	0.288	4.03	0.25	99.05	18.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Patrick Corbin ARI (at ATL) – Remember how good this guy was? Yet amid all of the Tommy John survivors, Corbin seems to have been forgotten. His K rate was nothing special but the southpaw’s slider was, finishing off 127 of his 178 strikeouts in 2013 while batters hit just .127 off the pitch. The slide hasn’t been quite so effective this season as the pitch has lacked some it’s bite, but his velocity is all the way to the 93-mph average that he posted prior to surgery and the secondaries might just need time for refinement. Tonight’s battle with the Braves should be akin to a rehab assignment for Corbin, what with all of the Triple-A hitters in Atlanta’s lineup.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. PHI) – Remember that breakout that everyone projected for the Milwaukee right-hander in the pre-season? He might be in the middle of that breakout right now. He had a three-game scoreless streak across 20.7 innings entering his last start, and he blanked the Cards for another five frames before they broke through in the sixth. He had posted eight or more strikeouts just three times in his first 17 starts of the 2015 season but has punched out exactly eight hitters in three of his last five turns; put another way, he has 33 strikeouts in his last 34.0 innings, after whiffing 89 batters through his first 109.0 innings of the campaign. He’s a good bet to continue that run today against the Phils.

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. DET) – The Astros benefitted last season from the sudden breakouts of McHugh and Dallas Keuchel, and while Keuchel has continued his ascension into consideration for All-in status and the Astros have vaulted from perennial cellar dweller into the class of the AL West, McHugh has fallen off track with a 4.22 ERA on the season and an 18.8-percent K rate that has fallen 6.6 percentage points from last season. Tonight he faces a Tiger lineup that just got Miguel Cabrera back on board, a move that more than replaces the sock that left the building when the club dealt Yoenis Cespedes. Roster McHugh with caution.

Justin Verlander DET (at HOU) – After missing the first three months due to his ailing right wing, Verlander was shaky in his first few starts back, trading decent outings with implosions of six or more runs, but he has calmed the waters in the past month. The Royals rocked him for five runs two starts ago, but the other three of his last four were successful starts, giving up one or zero earned runs against the Red Sox (twice) and the Rays. He even snuck a 10-K performance in there against Tampa. The good news is that his velocity has not continued it’s concerning, multi-year decline; the bad news is that his 93.4-mph average of 2015 is essentially the same as his velo from last year, and it has been flat on a month-to-month basis since his June return.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at KC)

Jon Niese NYM (vs. PIT)

Brett Anderson LAD (vs. CIN)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. WAS)

Chris Bassitt OAK (at BAL)

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. OAK)

David Holmberg CIN (at LAD)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. ARI)

Brad Hand MIA (at STL)

Colby Lewis TEX (vs. TB)

Charlie Morton PIT (at NYM)

Andrew Cashner SD (at COL)