Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, June 18th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pineda | NYY | MIN | 232.2 | 4.84 | 3.24 | 1.32 | 75.0% | 23.7% | 4.0% | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| Nolasco | MIN | NYY | 114.2 | 5.65 | 3.92 | 1.44 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 5.6% | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| Greinke | ARI | PHI | 316.1 | 2.28 | 3.43 | 0.94 | 50.0% | 22.7% | 4.7% | 0.68 | 1.43 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | ARI | 130.1 | 3.11 | 3.82 | 1.12 | 22.0% | 6.1% | 0.97 | 1.14 | |
| Lincecum | LAA | OAK | 76.1 | 4.13 | 4.82 | 1.48 | 40.0% | 18.0% | 11.4% | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| Neal | OAK | LAA | |||||||||
| Sampson | SEA | BOS | |||||||||
| Porcello | BOS | SEA | 254.2 | 4.56 | 3.74 | 1.27 | 55.6% | 20.6% | 5.1% | 1.31 | 1.37 |
| Gallardo | BAL | TOR | 202.1 | 3.74 | 4.70 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.71 | 1.62 |
| Reed | CIN | HOU | |||||||||
| Keuchel | HOU | CIN | 319.2 | 3.32 | 3.07 | 1.13 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 6.2% | 0.76 | 3.02 |
| Chatwood | COL | MIA | 84 | 2.89 | 4.32 | 1.17 | 25.0% | 15.1% | 7.7% | 0.64 | 2.40 |
| Chen | MIA | COL | 268.1 | 3.72 | 4.00 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 1.03 |
| Suarez | SFG | TBR | 27 | 3.33 | 4.09 | 1.04 | 12.3% | 4.7% | 0.00 | 2.29 | |
| Moore | TBR | SFG | 139.2 | 5.22 | 4.29 | 1.45 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 1.48 | 1.02 | |
| Ramos | TEX | STL | 83.2 | 3.55 | 4.19 | 1.48 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 0.86 | 1.62 | |
| Martinez | STL | TEX | 255 | 3.14 | 3.60 | 1.24 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 0.67 | 2.12 | |
| Rodon | CWS | CLE | 208.2 | 3.92 | 4.17 | 1.46 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 0.91 | 1.50 | |
| Salazar | CLE | CWS | 259 | 3.09 | 3.48 | 1.13 | 12.5% | 26.9% | 8.5% | 0.97 | 1.22 |
| Blair | ATL | NYM | 40.1 | 7.59 | 6.05 | 1.81 | 12.1% | 13.2% | 1.12 | 1.10 | |
| Matz | NYM | ATL | 102 | 2.56 | 3.38 | 1.18 | 23.8% | 5.5% | 0.71 | 1.71 | |
| Boyd | DET | KCR | 83 | 6.72 | 4.78 | 1.52 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.39 | 0.71 | |
| Volquez | KCR | DET | 285.2 | 3.65 | 4.38 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 18.2% | 8.6% | 0.76 | 1.50 |
| Niese | PIT | CHC | 253 | 4.27 | 4.30 | 1.42 | 41.2% | 15.1% | 7.2% | 1.21 | 2.16 |
| Lester | CHC | PIT | 290.2 | 2.91 | 3.21 | 1.07 | 65.0% | 25.2% | 5.5% | 0.71 | 1.59 |
| Anderson | MIL | LAD | 224 | 4.34 | 4.27 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 17.9% | 6.2% | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| Bolsinger | LAD | MIL | 134.1 | 4.02 | 4.05 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 21.4% | 9.1% | 1.21 | 1.56 |
| Scherzer | WAS | SDP | 324 | 2.97 | 2.73 | 0.94 | 60.0% | 31.0% | 4.6% | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| Rea | SDP | WAS | 97 | 5.01 | 4.58 | 1.39 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 0.84 | 1.52 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. PIT) – Lester is having an excellent season, with a 1.89 ERA and 85:17 K:BB in 85.2 innings this season. He is only getting stronger as the season beats on, and over his last four starts Lester has an outstanding 0.59 ERA and 33 strikeouts against just two walks in 30.1 innings. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of Max Scherzer, but Lester also keeps the ball in the yard (Scherzer’s biggest vulnerability), as Lester has given up just three homers over his last eight starts. He has thrown a quality start in 11 of 13 turns, came one out short of a twelfth, and his efficiency has kept Lester under 110 pitches in all but one start.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Max Scherzer WAS (at SD) – His extreme weakness for the home run knocks Scherzer from the All-In perch that he held several times last season, but the 20-K upside and whiff-heavy opponent keeps him atop the next tier of arms. He has allowed an NL-leading 17 homers across 14 starts this season, but homers have been the only way to get to Scherzer over his last three starts. In that trio of games, Scherzer has a 1.23 ERA and 28:3 ratio of K:BB over 22.0 innings pitched, sand all three of his runs allowed have scored on home runs. He is coming off a seven-inning gem against the mighty Cubs, with 11 Ks and no walks in addition to just two hits allowed – of course one of those hits was a solo homer.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. CHW) – Salazar is marching through the 2016 campaign with remarkable consistency, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts this season and striking put seven or more batters in nine of 12. He piles up the Ks even when exiting early, such as in his last start, when he struck out eight Angels despite recording just 17 outs in the game. He. Has only hit double-digit strikeouts once this season, but he has crossed the eight-K barrier seven times this season, including 17 strikeouts over his last two games covering 13.2 frames, outings where the only runs were scored on solo home runs (one per outing).
Zack Greinke ARI (at PHI) – June has been a month of re establishing value for Greinke. He has a 0.78 ERA in three starts this month, with just 14 hits and four walks allowed in 23 innings. He kicked off June with a stellar 11-strikeout performance, but his free-swinging opponent from Houston makes it tough to project that Greinke will be able to replicate that feat. He whiffed just two batters in his next outing, but the fact that he threw a shutout in that turn against the Rays more than made up the difference, and in his last start Greinke held his former team from LA to two runs over six innings. Things should be even easier this time around.
Steven Matz NYM (vs. ATL) – His first start of the year was a forgettable disaster, but Matz followed that seven-run fiasco with a dynamite run that included a 1.38 ERA and 60:11 K:Bb ratio over nine starts and 58.2 innings pitched. The left-handed is coming off his roughest start of the season since that first game, giving up five runs (four earned) and nine hits against the Brewers, striking out a modest five batters against the NL’s highest-K offense. He should have an easier time against the Braves, whom he shut down with 7.2 scoreless innings and just two hits allowed when he last faced them on May 4, a game that included eight strikeouts and zero walks allowed.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pineda | 0.341 | 4.73 | 0.336 | 4.92 | 0.243 | 0.696 | 0.344 | 3.56 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Nolasco | 0.319 | 4.88 | 0.352 | 6.29 | 0.247 | 0.731 | 0.350 | 3.48 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Greinke | 0.267 | 2.46 | 0.232 | 2.12 | 0.241 | 0.676 | 0.251 | 2.95 | 0.206 | 0.00 | 22.7% |
| Eickhoff | 0.340 | 4.29 | 0.242 | 2.00 | 0.264 | 0.736 | 0.275 | 3.53 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 22.0% |
| Lincecum | 0.267 | 2.18 | 0.376 | 6.43 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.300 | 4.29 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 18.0% |
| Neal | 0.254 | 0.717 | |||||||||
| Sampson | 0.272 | 0.768 | |||||||||
| Porcello | 0.318 | 4.29 | 0.337 | 4.89 | 0.248 | 0.737 | 0.309 | 4.13 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Dickey | 0.309 | 3.94 | 0.314 | 4.01 | 0.258 | 0.768 | 0.260 | 4.57 | 0.242 | 0.00 | 14.8% |
| Gallardo | 0.339 | 4.55 | 0.307 | 2.96 | 0.259 | 0.778 | 0.306 | 4.00 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 14.8% |
| Reed | 0.244 | 0.744 | |||||||||
| Keuchel | 0.231 | 3.07 | 0.291 | 3.40 | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.289 | 3.16 | 0.234 | 0.00 | 23.0% |
| Chatwood | 0.247 | 3.03 | 0.319 | 2.78 | 0.259 | 0.695 | 0.262 | 3.84 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 15.1% |
| Chen | 0.261 | 2.52 | 0.345 | 4.07 | 0.255 | 0.703 | 0.290 | 4.31 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Suarez | 0.304 | 3.00 | 0.280 | 3.60 | 0.244 | 0.710 | 0.267 | 2.94 | 0.232 | 0.02 | 12.3% |
| Moore | 0.329 | 5.90 | 0.357 | 4.95 | 0.265 | 0.712 | 0.324 | 4.71 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Ramos | 0.302 | 1.89 | 0.361 | 4.65 | 0.236 | 0.680 | 0.335 | 4.10 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Martinez | 0.328 | 4.02 | 0.256 | 2.29 | 0.258 | 0.739 | 0.299 | 3.36 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 23.2% |
| Rodon | 0.242 | 3.10 | 0.355 | 4.24 | 0.265 | 0.733 | 0.322 | 4.01 | 0.258 | 0.01 | 22.5% |
| Salazar | 0.284 | 3.46 | 0.282 | 2.77 | 0.249 | 0.697 | 0.271 | 3.48 | 0.212 | 0.01 | 26.9% |
| Blair | 0.409 | 5.68 | 0.351 | 9.28 | 0.241 | 0.712 | 0.321 | 5.68 | 0.296 | 0.00 | 12.1% |
| Matz | 0.313 | 2.08 | 0.266 | 2.69 | 0.227 | 0.617 | 0.310 | 2.95 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 23.8% |
| Boyd | 0.441 | 10.24 | 0.368 | 5.65 | 0.272 | 0.728 | 0.298 | 6.22 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.4% |
| Volquez | 0.299 | 3.34 | 0.310 | 3.98 | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.291 | 3.88 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
| Niese | 0.330 | 3.20 | 0.344 | 4.58 | 0.245 | 0.721 | 0.300 | 4.65 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Lester | 0.276 | 2.97 | 0.276 | 2.89 | 0.255 | 0.711 | 0.291 | 2.89 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 25.2% |
| Anderson | 0.305 | 3.69 | 0.346 | 4.94 | 0.242 | 0.720 | 0.288 | 4.41 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Bolsinger | 0.349 | 2.38 | 0.295 | 5.09 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.293 | 4.29 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 21.4% |
| Scherzer | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.223 | 2.69 | 0.239 | 0.676 | 0.263 | 3.08 | 0.204 | 0.01 | 31.0% |
| Rea | 0.303 | 4.47 | 0.344 | 5.75 | 0.247 | 0.719 | 0.296 | 4.17 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 17.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. TEX) – Martinez has turned things around following a rough patch that may have been impacted by a mid-May illness, but his numbers over the last three starts indicate that he has shaken any bug that was bothering him: a 1.61 ERA with 20 strikeouts against six walks in 22.1 innings pitched. He has been particularly stingy with the longball recently, with just two homers allowed over his last seven starts, and his ability to pile up strikeouts while limiting hits and homers makes CarMart a very attractive commodity. His overall stat line and recent struggles keep him in Call territory, but Martinez will earn his way back into the Raise tier with another strong showing today against the Rangers.
Tyler Chatwood COL (at MIA) – Chatwood is typically a fold-worthy pitcher at home, but away from the high-altitude He’ll of Coors Field he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. His ERA on the road is a ridiculous 0.65 mark, but his peripherals suggest that Chatwood is benefitting from the defense behind him to post some unrepeatable numbers. In 41.2 innings on the road this season, he has just 28 strikeouts and 11 walks, with an unsustainable-low 28 hits allowed, including zero home runs.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. ARI) – He Held the Cubs to one run over seven innings, then followed up that effort with six shutout frames against the southpaw-smashing Blue Jays. Eickhoff will wake up from the dream soon enough, and the downside is a pitcher who only collects a few strikeouts while giving up a chunk of runs.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. CIN)
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. COL)
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. SEA) – Porcello was streaking through the first several weeks of the season, but the vulnerability to hits and runs that defined the first seven years of his big league career has returned. He’s a reliable source of innings, having thrown six full frames or more in 11 of his 14 starts, but he has also been a consistent source of runs allowed, with three or more tallies against in seven of his last eight starts. He’s only struck out more than five batters once in his last. Eight starts, and that game involved six Ks, so there has been little margin for error in Porcello’s starts.
Michael Pineda NYY (at MIN) – Pineda stands as the shining example of the flaws inherent in FIP. His K:BB ratio might be elite, but the plethora of strikes results in hard-hit baseballs with alarming frequency.
Matt Moore TB (vs. SF)
James Shields CHW (at CLE) – Shields has been a mess, both before and after the trade from San Diego to the Chicago’s south side, and though he is too talented not to right the ship at some point, I wouldn’t bank on that transition starting today.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. DET)
Albert Suarez SF (at TB)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. NYY)
Cody Reed CIN (at HOU)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (vs. MIL)
Chase Anderson MIL (at LAD)
Matt Boyd DET (at KC)
Cesar Ramos TEX (at STL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
R.A. Dickey TOR (at BAL)
Colin Rea SD (vs. WAS)
Tim Lincecum LAA (at OAK) – it’s his first start of the season at the major league level, and though Big Time Timmy Jim will be going back home in a sense by traveling back to the Bay Area, he hasn’t resembled the Cy Young winner of his past in a few years, and it’s tough to trust the right-hander even when facing an inconsistent Oakland club. His start bears monitoring, but sinking DFS funds into his performance is likely a losing proposition.
Jon Niese PIT (at CHC)
Aaron Blair ATL (at NYM) – Not even facing a depleted Mets offense can save Blair from himself. Feel free Tom stack whichever Mets are left swinging.
Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. TOR)
Zach Neal OAK (vs. LAA)
Adrian Sampson SEA (at BOS)
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