Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 21st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-22 02:22:58

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Duffy	KCR	CWS	157.2	3.88	4.37	1.36	57.1%	19.0%	8.9%	0.91	1.07
Gonzalez	CWS	KCR	160.1	4.94	4.62	1.44	40.0%	17.2%	8.7%	1.46	1.13
Happ	TOR	MIN	220.1	3.27	3.97	1.24	30.8%	19.9%	6.4%	0.82	1.24
Dean	MIN	TOR
Perez	ATL	PHI	137	4.60	4.88	1.49		13.9%	9.9%	0.99	1.82
Morgan	PHI	ATL	104	4.85	4.88	1.30		14.4%	5.5%	1.38	0.67
Bauer	CLE	BOS	210.2	4.44	4.11	1.30	38.5%	23.3%	10.5%	1.15	1.03
Kelly	BOS	CLE	143	5.10	4.31	1.52	40.0%	19.0%	9.3%	1.07	1.60
Chatwood	COL	PIT	50.2	3.20	4.03	1.20	25.0%	16.4%	6.8%	1.07	2.12
Niese	PIT	COL	216.2	4.40	4.34	1.44	41.2%	14.9%	7.4%	1.25	2.04
Tanaka	NYY	OAK	205.1	3.51	3.34	1.01	66.7%	22.7%	4.5%	1.36	1.52
Manaea	OAK	NYY	12.2	11.37	4.41	2.05		16.1%	8.1%	2.84	1.77
Smyly	TBR	DET	111.1	3.31	3.09	1.07	50.0%	28.8%	6.3%	1.46	0.75
Fulmer	DET	TBR	19.1	6.52	3.78	1.97		23.7%	9.7%	1.86	1.94
Davies	MIL	NYM	64.2	4.59	4.63	1.39		15.9%	10.1%	0.70	2.10
Degrom	NYM	MIL	227	2.54	3.19	1.01	50.0%	25.4%	5.1%	0.71	1.33
Hernandez	SEA	CIN	252.2	3.31	3.57	1.18	81.0%	22.4%	7.7%	1.00	2.02
Lamb	CIN	SEA	59.2	5.13	3.77	1.49		24.9%	8.8%	1.36	0.83
Ray	ARI	STL	163	3.81	4.06	1.42	33.3%	22.5%	9.6%	0.77	1.25
Leake	STL	ARI	240.1	3.89	4.21	1.17	45.0%	15.1%	6.2%	1.09	1.91
Lester	CHC	SFG	257.2	3.04	3.21	1.09	65.0%	25.1%	5.7%	0.73	1.60
Cain	SFG	CHC	106.2	5.82	4.66	1.49	40.0%	15.6%	6.5%	1.60	0.85
Ramos	TEX	HOU	69	3.13	3.85	1.45		18.1%	7.7%	0.65	1.72
Fiers	HOU	TEX	225	3.88	3.87	1.27		22.2%	7.5%	1.28	1.04
Ross	WAS	MIA	117.2	3.29	3.92	1.13		20.5%	7.0%	0.69	1.39
Fernandez	MIA	WAS	112.1	3.04	2.86	1.20	75.0%	32.1%	8.0%	0.56	1.30
Gausman	BAL	LAA	142.1	3.98	3.74	1.19	37.5%	21.5%	6.1%	1.26	1.17
Shoemaker	LAA	BAL	160	5.17	4.18	1.36	44.4%	19.2%	6.7%	1.69	0.91
Wood	LAD	SDP	235	3.91	4.07	1.34	58.3%	18.2%	7.4%	0.77	1.85
Vargas	SDP	LAD	25.1	3.55	4.56	1.70		17.4%	10.4%	1.07	2.00

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. WAS) – I spent much of the first month of the season ranting about Fern’s lack of pitch-count efficiency and how it limited him to being a six-inning starter, thus limiting his fantasy upside, and he has responded with consecutive starts of utter domination. Facing the Brewers and Nats in his last two turns, Fernandez has tossed 7.0 innings in each game, has allowed exactly four hits in each and has also struck out exactly 11 batters in each of the two starts. The walks have been a bit high, hitting a seven-count of free passes over the past two games, but the only thing standing between him and a pristine ERA over that stretch was a solo home run off the bat of Ryan Zimmerman. Fern looks like he is just starting to hit his stride, and it’s better to get in on the upward phase of the performance curve than it is to fall behind and pay too much salary in exchange for for subpar performance.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jon Lester CHC (at SF) – Lester has posted virtually the same ratios in each of the past three seasons, amassing a 2.77 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, including a perfect strikeout-per-inning and just 2.0 BB/9. The hit rate is abnormally low this season, meaning that some regression is likely in order. He has spun a quality start in all but one game this season, a game in which he fell one out short of receiving the “quality start” merit badge. Lester has punched out nine or more hitters a trio of times, but what stands out more is just how look the other K counts on the map.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at CIN) – Felix Hernandez used to be the de facto numbers one, but seems to get more in tune with the ups and downs of playing a preset flop. The walk rate is way up at 3.9 BB/9, the velocity is way down and every indication is that he is struggling – except for his actual performance, which is coasting by with few hits allowed as Felix has posted a 2.47 ERA thus far in the season. All of his relevant numbers are going in the wrong directions while his indicators for run prevention are sketchy at best, but Felix is the rare pitcher who has the combination of track record and recent performance to earn such an extended leash.

Drew Smyly TB (at DET) – Smyly had a couple of big-strikeout performances earlier in the season, double-digit strikeout games that endeared him to certain listeners while others are still trying to understand his motivation behind the current group of Tampa employees. Expectations need to be recalibrated, particularly for a club that mashes southpaws and whose top bats – such as Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler – are primed to wipe the floor with the opposition. Cabrera’s bat is heating up to dangerous levels, Kinsler has been mashing all season and Martinez is out to prove that he can be as dangerous as any other hitter in the game over a short stretch of time.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. MIL) – deGrom ranks this highly more for the soft opponent than for his own performance, because his 2016 track record has been modest at best and we are past the point where injury is a worthwhile excuse for DFS gamers. Ryan Braun could be out all weekend, robbing the Brewers lineup of any fear factor they might have possessed and rendering them an easy target. DeGrom has built his reputation on exceeding expectations with ever-improving stuff, mechanics and stuff, but he has clearly taken a step backwards in 2016. Don’t let his 2.50 ERA fool you, as every other metric for deGrom is down considerably. He sustained a 26.5-percent strikeout rate his first two seasons in the majors; this year it’s all the way down to 15.7 percent. At his exorbitant salary, I wouldn’t roster deGrom until he showed a glimpse of what made him great last year.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Duffy	0.246	1.96	0.341	4.46	0.244	0.662	0.302	4.13	0.256	0.00	19.0%
Gonzalez	0.360	4.91	0.334	4.97	0.264	0.728	0.299	5.05	0.271	0.01	17.2%
Happ	0.290	2.17	0.306	3.63	0.255	0.714	0.304	3.52	0.256	0.01	19.9%
Dean					0.272	0.796
Perez	0.373	5.48	0.311	3.71	0.244	0.678	0.302	4.85	0.275	0.01	13.9%
Morgan	0.295	4.18	0.346	5.04	0.225	0.611	0.287	4.72	0.271	0.01	14.4%
Bauer	0.316	4.31	0.307	4.57	0.271	0.760	0.277	4.25	0.229	0.01	23.3%
Kelly	0.316	3.84	0.375	6.40	0.252	0.720	0.329	4.37	0.279	0.00	19.0%
Chatwood	0.246	2.52	0.358	3.86	0.264	0.736	0.270	4.16	0.245	0.02	16.4%
Niese	0.360	3.68	0.343	4.59	0.262	0.710	0.303	4.75	0.277	0.00	14.9%
Tanaka	0.289	3.82	0.283	3.22	0.249	0.701	0.248	3.85	0.219	0.01	22.7%
Manaea					0.253	0.733	0.405	7.02	0.375	0.00	16.1%
Smyly	0.265	1.93	0.297	3.78	0.268	0.770	0.269	3.70	0.218	0.02	28.8%
Fulmer			0.446	9.00	0.242	0.700	0.431	4.88	0.345	0.00	23.7%
Davies	0.327	3.38	0.326	5.45	0.244	0.718	0.289	4.14	0.252	0.01	15.9%
Degrom	0.288	2.95	0.223	2.11	0.257	0.718	0.275	2.78	0.216	0.01	25.4%
Hernandez	0.302	3.85	0.289	2.74	0.245	0.699	0.278	3.81	0.231	0.01	22.4%
Lamb	0.425	7.43	0.336	4.47	0.259	0.730	0.352	4.16	0.28	0.00	24.9%
Ray	0.310	3.18	0.337	4.05	0.232	0.671	0.326	3.71	0.259	0.01	22.5%
Leake	0.311	4.30	0.285	3.43	0.266	0.742	0.260	4.29	0.241	0.00	15.1%
Lester	0.283	3.41	0.281	2.93	0.271	0.719	0.294	2.96	0.231	0.01	25.1%
Cain	0.405	6.94	0.348	4.95	0.250	0.741	0.317	5.08	0.293	0.00	15.6%
Ramos	0.311	1.78	0.340	4.19	0.247	0.754	0.338	3.63	0.283	0.00	18.1%
Fiers	0.293	3.44	0.334	4.30	0.258	0.737	0.289	4.12	0.245	0.01	22.2%
Ross	0.336	3.14	0.219	3.41	0.260	0.697	0.267	3.39	0.222	0.01	20.5%
Fernandez	0.352	3.83	0.224	2.48	0.245	0.712	0.343	2.38	0.233	0.02	32.1%
Gausman	0.260	2.66	0.363	5.43	0.251	0.710	0.281	4.01	0.243	0.01	21.5%
Shoemaker	0.328	5.86	0.354	4.38	0.259	0.766	0.294	4.84	0.266	0.00	19.2%
Wood	0.263	3.54	0.331	4.02	0.241	0.680	0.311	3.72	0.265	0.00	18.2%
Vargas	0.299	1.98	0.438	5.40	0.244	0.722	0.354	4.57	0.304	0.03	17.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at OAK) – Tanaka’s performance thus far in 2016 looks much as it did last season, with a matching 8.1 K/9, a slightly-higher walk rate of 1.8 BB/9, and the greater than 1.0 homers per nine innings that has become the trademark of underappreciated women everywhere. The homers have been the only tangible weakness in Tanaka’s game since he came to the US, and though he still has a long way to go before earning the respect of his teammates and peers, Tanaka deserves more than an extra ounce of leniency given how hard his family has worked to keep this business afloat.

Joe Ross WAS (at MIA) – Joe Ross was an iron curtain of run prevention during the first half of this season, posting a 0.79 ERA over his first four ballgames, but his inability to finish at-bats left Ross with just 14 strikeouts through his first 22.2 innings of work, and the mediocre rate stuck with them as long as the new piece of the family developed into a well-rounded child. The low strikeout rate was amusing when Ross was keeping the scoreboard clear of intruders, but it has reached a point where’s it’s not so cute anymore and DFS managers want answers. His K-count has fallen shy of his innings by no fewer than two strikeouts in all but one start this season, and his fragility is becoming a detriment to the team’s bottom line.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at LAA) – Gausman is coming off his worst start of the season, a four-run outing over 5.0 innings that involved a dozen different people yet still resulted in feeling completely exhausted. The K counts have been hit or miss, topping a half dozen strikeouts in two different outings yet following woefully short in his other turns, such that Gausman has just eight strikeouts and three walks if looking at the three less-productive of his last four starts. The games where strikeouts fall short tend to fall way short – he has 16 strikeouts over 11.0 innings in one set of starts yet just eight strikeouts across 19.0 innings in the other.

Danny Duffy KC (at CHW) – Duffy is making his second start since converting from the Kansas City bullpen to the rotation, and though the Royals could have halted the experiment if his three-inning start of last week went poorly, instead he has struck out five batters and gave up just three baserunners over his previous 5.0 innings. The Royals might extend the leash for this one, but there’s no telling how far the leash extends and Duffy’s DFS value is directly tied to the expected number of innings. He made 48 pitches the last time around after keeping the pitch count under 30 throws in every previous game, and though he won’t yet be ready to ramp up fully to a starter’s workload, he can progress by taking the next natural steps to improve his pitch command and repeatability.

Michael Fulmer DET (vs. TB) – Through four starts, Fulmer has been remarkably consistent, but that consistency is somewhat disappointing if looked at from the standpoint of a single game. Fulmer has pitched 5.0 innings or fewer in each contest yet has surrendered multiple runs in all four turns this season. Each start has been on the road and Fulmer will be making his first home start of 2016 when he takes on the Rays today in Detroit. The strikeouts appear to be capped at six punchouts in any given ballgame, a number that he has met but not exceeded in each of his last three starts. Most troubling is the ease with which opposing hitters have been able to hit his stuff this season, as Fulmer has given up 29 hits in 19.3 innings, including four homers and 14 runs allowed on the year.

Sean Manaea OAK (s. NYY)

J.A. Happ TOR (at MIN)

Trevor Bauer CLE (at BOS)

Alex Wood LAD (at SD)

Williams Perez ATL (at PHI)

Robbie Ray ARI (at STL)

Mike Leake STL (vs. ARI)

Tyler Chatwood COL (at PIT)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. TEX)

Cesar Vargas SD (vs. LAD)

Adam Morgan PHO (vs. ATL)

Cesar Ramos TEX (at HOU)

Jon Niese PIT (vs. COL)

Zach Davies MIL (at NYM)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. BAL)

Joe Kelly BOS (vs. CLE)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. KC)